Showing posts with label William Kempner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label William Kempner. Show all posts

Sunday, July 24, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

The Giants had a couple clear themes with his draft. First is that they started off with six consecutive pitchers (and ten pitchers in their first twelve picks), highlighted by two lefties at the top in Reggie Crawford and Carson Whisenhunt to join a strong core of left handed pitching prospects in the system like Kyle Harrison, Nick Swiney, Seth Lonsway, and Matt Mikulski. Power fastballs were the name of the game for most pitchers, with Crawford, William Kempner, and Liam Simon showing the ability to hit triple digits with impressive life, while Whisenhunt was more of an outlier in that he's more of a command/offspeed guy. When it came to position players, the Giants opted for hit over power it seems, playing it safe while they reached for the moon on high risk, high reward arms like Crawford and Simon. Interestingly enough, there was a big time West Coast vibe here that included two picks out of Fresno State and one each from Gonzaga, Oregon State, Saint Mary's, Pacific, Arizona, and Arizona State. I like to highlight one or two local picks in every writeup, and the Giants drafted five different players that grew up within an hour and a half drive of the San Francisco Bay so I had ample to choose from.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-30: LHP/1B Reggie Crawford, Connecticut. My rank: #47.
Slot value: $2.49 million. Signing bonus: likely around slot value.
I'm fascinated by this pick, as are most people that have seen Reggie Crawford play. While most prefer him as a pitcher, the Giants took him as a two-way player and we'll see how that plays out. He missed the 2022 season with Tommy John surgery, but he already has plenty of track record in the batter's box as a career .309/.362/.546 hitter at UConn with 14 home runs in 64 games, with big power from the left side and an aggressive approach that will need to be refined at the next level. There is honestly some Shohei Ohtani in the offensive profile as a big, defensively limited, power hitting lefty with a free swinging approach. He can certainly make it work as a hitter, though with pitching potentially as his primary focus, he'll likely always swing and miss at a high rate and it's not a given that he'll tap his power enough to play every day given that he'll be limited to first base. There is, however, a ton of upside on the mound and that's what I'm most interested in. The track record is extremely limited, but in 2021, he was nothing short of untouchable when he was on the mound. Between 7.2 innings with UConn, four with the College National Team, and two in the Cape Cod League (just 13.2 total, mostly against elite competition), he struck out 29 of the 53 batters he faced (54.7%!) and walked just four. Crawford does it with a mid to upper 90's fastball that can touch as high as 101 in short stints, exploding on hitters who also have to keep in mind a slider that flashes plus at its best. The delivery is very simple and could perhaps use a little refinement, but he has filled up the strike zone when he's been on the mound so the operation works well overall. The 6'4" lefty has a lot to prove if he wants to stick as a starter in pro ball, but the upside is massive with his electric stuff and special left arm. If the stuff or command ticks down too much once the Giants get him healthy and stretched out, it's pretty hard to not see him as an impact arm in the back of the bullpen anyways. To top it all off, Prospects Live has noted that scouts have dubbed him with "generational makeup," meaning he has an exceptional work ethic and could emerge as a true team leader down the road. There's a lot to love here.

2-66: LHP Carson Whisenhunt, East Carolina. My rank: #57.
Slot value: $1.05 million. Signing bonus: hard to peg, likely a little bit above slot value.
Carson Whisenhunt is a bit of a unique arm in this class because he did not pitch at all for East Carolina this spring, but not because he was hurt. Just before the season, he tested positive for a banned substance, which he claims to have taken by accident in one of his supplements. He returned in the Cape Cod League to mixed results, with a 7.87 ERA but a sharper 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 innings against elite competition. The 6'3" lefty was viewed as a fringe-first round talent by many outlets throughout the draft cycle, but opinions on him were split and it's hard to peg whether he'll require an above slot bonus and if so, by how much. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95 with some angle, but his real weapons are his offspeed pitches. Whisenhunt's changeup is among the best in the class, with huge fade to the arm side that sends even seasoned hitters flailing. His curveball is another pitch that could be above average, with deep two plane break. It all plays up because he possesses above average command of both the fastball and the offspeeds, enabling him to sequence more effectively and miss barrels. If San Francisco can play with his fastball a little bit to give it more life or add a tick of velocity, he has a real shot to be a mid-rotation starter for years to come. It's a really good get at the back of the second round, when most thought he would have been long gone off the board.

3-106: RHP William Kempner, Gonzaga. My rank: #136.
Slot value: $577,200. Signing bonus: likely around slot value.
Brandon Crawford (Pleasanton native) is 35 and likely nearing the twilight of his career, but the Giants could bring up another Bay Area product to rep Northern California, albeit in a very different role. William Kempner grew up in San Jose and attended Valley Christian High School down on the south side of town, then moved on to Gonzaga where he has turned into one of the harder throwers on the West Coast. He showed extremely well for almost the entire season, bringing a 0.81 ERA into his final start before Wright State blew him up for nine runs at the Blacksburg regional to balloon his final ERA to 3.00 while he struck out 48 and walked 21 over 36 innings. Kempner is an extremely unique arm, getting his fastball up to 100 at its best with nasty run and sink from a sidearm slot and sitting in the mid 90's as a starter. The fastball is his bread and butter, but the 6' righty also adds a sweeping slider and a good changeup, both of which flash above average. The command is fringy, as he tends to miss east-west due to his arm slot. In his delivery, Kempner rocks his weight back towards first base before pushing off into a high leg lift, working down the mound to produce a lot of power but with high effort. Combine all that together between the fringy command, high effort delivery, and stocky build, and he's probably destined for the bullpen, where I think the stuff could really play up. A three pitch righty that can touch 100 with nasty movement and throw a reasonable amount of strikes sounds good to me.

4-136: RHP Spencer Miles, Missouri. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $431,100. Signing bonus: likely below slot value.
The Giants took on a project in Spencer Miles, who showed well on the Cape last spring (2.54 ERA, 24/9 K/BB in 17.2 innings) but has otherwise been unremarkable at Missouri, posting a 6.27 ERA and a 122/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 career innings. Miles sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for the upper 90's, though it's an average running pitch that has been hit hard throughout his time in Columbia. His breaking balls are much better, with the bigger curveball diving across the zone and his tighter slider playing well off his fastball, and that combined with the arm strength is what the Giants are drafting him for. The 6'3" righty does a pretty good job of filling up the zone, and San Francisco will want him to fill up the zone with his breaking balls more often rather than pitching off the fastball like most amateur pitchers are taught to do. If that works out, Miles has some upside as a back end starter, perhaps more if the Giants can do something to get more life on his already high-velocity fastball. Otherwise, it will be easier to pitch of his breaking stuff in a bullpen role. Regardless, Miles turned 22 shortly after the draft and is therefore relatively old for a college junior, and he likely won't require full slot value to sign.

5-166: RHP Liam Simon, Notre Dame. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $322,600. Signing bonus: likely around slot value.
This pick is a bit reminiscent of Seth Lonsway last year, except that Liam Simon is right handed. He has truly explosive stuff, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and getting up into triple digits with a combination of steep angle and a ton of lift. While he does pitch off that fastball, it's such a good pitch that hitters are often fooled by his hard slider and he gets plenty of whiffs when he locates reasonably well. The problem, as with Lonsway, is that command. The big 6'4" righty has an exaggerated wrist curl in the back of his delivery and a very late arm, with the latter making it very difficult to repeat his arm slot with any consistency as he often casts and yanks pitches. That can make for very uncomfortable at bats for right handed hitters as upper 90's fastballs sail up and in, and it also led to middling results with a 4.99 ERA and a 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings this year as a swingman. For that reason the New Jersey product is certainly a reliever in pro ball, where he can continue to pitch off his fastball and perhaps only need moderate improvement in his command to become a high leverage reliever.

7-226: C Zach Morgan, Fresno State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $198,700. Signing bonus: likely around slot value, perhaps a bit below.
The Giants picked up another Northern Californian in Zach Morgan, a Central Valley product through and through that attended Lincoln High School on the north side of Stockton before heading down 99 to Fresno State for college. A redshirt junior that turned 22 in March, he broke out with a huge 2022 season in which he slashed .381/.454/.592 with eight home runs and a 17/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Morgan doesn't stand out on the field with an average 6' build and unremarkable physical tools, but he will never, ever miss a hittable pitch and that's his greatest strength. He makes a ton of contact early in the count, leading to a minuscule 6.7% strikeout rate this spring even as he bumped that ISO (isolated slugging percentage) up to .211. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard and any power he produces will come from the sheer volume of barreled baseballs rather than big time bat speed or strength, and he'll have no trouble barreling pro pitching. Morgan is an average defender on the other side that should stick with some work, giving him a good chance to become a backup catcher in San Francisco in the near future.

8-256: OF Wade Meckler, Oregon State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $168,500. Signing bonus: likely below slot value.
Keeping with the West Coast theme, the Giants grabbed Orange County native and Oregon State star Wade Meckler in the eighth round. Meckler didn't play much over his first two seasons in Corvallis, but showed well in 2021 before emerging as one of their best hitters in 2022, slashing .347/.456/.478 with two home runs and a 49/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. He's a very patient hitter that ran a walk rate north of 16% in 2022, spitting on bad pitches and working counts very well. It's a simple operation in the box with very little extra movement, in which he just flings the barrel at the ball and goes with the pitch rather than trying to wind up and uncork for power. That contact-oriented swing, plus the fact that he's only 5'10" anyways, is why he's only hit six home runs in 135 career games for the Beavers, but there is some whip in the barrel that leads me to believe he could trade some contact for power if he wanted to, not that I see any reason he should. He profiles as a fourth outfielder with limited upside due to the lack of power projection, but as a 22 year old senior sign who has excelled against high level pitching and in high pressure environments, he could move relatively quickly through the system.

16-496: 2B Andrew Kachel, Fresno State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely around $125,000.
We'll finish off with one last local product in Andrew Kachel, a graduate of Christopher High School on the north side of Gilroy out on 101. He's a three year performer out of Fresno State, where he's a career .312/.407/.563 hitter with 24 home runs and an 82/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games. He actually got off to a slow start in 2022 with just one hit against ten strikeouts over his first six games, but recovered well to finish right in line with his career numbers. A bit undersized at a skinny six feet tall, he does damage with strong barrel control from a rhythm-based bat waggle and a line drive approach. He also hit very well last summer in the California Collegiate League (.370/.473/.546) where his metal bat home runs manifested more often as doubles and triples. There is some swing and miss in Kachel's game but not too much to be concerned, and he profiles as a utility infield type that can get on base when you need him.

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: an early look at mid-majors (west)

2021 draftees: 76. Top schools: Dallas Baptist/San Diego State/Tulane (5).
2021 preseason writeup (published 1/22/2021)

Top draftees:
1-5, Orioles: OF Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State)
1-18, Cardinals: RHP Michael McGreevy (UC Santa Barbara)
2-67, Angels: LHP Ky Bush (Saint Mary's)
CBB-71, Padres: LHP Robert Gasser (Houston)
3-81, Mets: RHP Dominic Hamel (Dallas Baptist)
3-96, Braves: LHP Dylan Dodd (Southeast Missouri State)

Just like in the east, the western mid majors have a strong candidate to go first overall in Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, rivaling James Madison's Chase DeLauter on the other side of the country. However, at this point it's really Lee running the show in the west with no other prospects looking like clear-cut first rounders, with the next group of prospects looking to go more in the second to third round range with questions surrounding power output for the hitters and ability to stick in the rotation for the pitchers. Below, we'll look at the top ten for the 2022 draft.

1. SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly.
Bat: B. Throw: R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: San Luis Obispo, CA.
2021: 10 HR, .342/.384/.626, 3 SB, 34/18 K/BB in 55 games.
Brooks Lee, the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, was a very well-known prospect coming out of San Luis Obispo High School back in 2019 and had a chance to go in the the top two rounds had he been signable. Instead, he was the fourth best prospect to reach campus behind three SEC-bound stars in Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter, Florida's Hunter Barco, and LSU's Maurice Hampton. He barely got to play in 2020 when the COVID shutdown came down just as he was returning from hamstring surgery, but he set the league on fire with a huge sophomore season with a .342/.384/.626 line in 55 games. Seeing time with both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League over the summer, he was exposed to some of the top amateur pitchers in the country and thrived to the tune of a .375/.405/.600 line with seven home runs in 32 games, leaving no doubt that the bat is for real. Lee employs an extremely aggressive approach at the plate, swinging at almost everything he considers hittable. For the vast majority of players, that kind of free swinging mentality would lead to high strikeout rates and ugly K/BB ratios (think Javier Baez), but it actually works extremely well in this case because his feel for the barrel is perhaps unparalleled in college baseball. It doesn't matter what he's up against, velocity, quality breaking stuff, in the zone, out of the zone, whatever, Lee is going to see it, hit it, and hit it hard. He's not just a slap hitter, either, with plus raw power that he taps in games, with wood bats, and against quality competition, coming from a sturdy 6'2" frame that should continue to add strength in pro ball. A switch hitter, he's been known for his choppy swing since high school, though despite its optics he's direct to the ball and can effectively catch pitches out in front to drive them to all fields. Lee plays shortstop for now and his instincts help him perform well at the position, but he's a fringy runner and his lack of range might push him to third base in the long run, where he'll still be a net-positive defensively. Headed into pro ball, he has a very complete profile that figures to hit 20-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, though he'll have to cut back just a little bit on his tendency to expand the zone because he won't always be able to get away with chasing  like he does against college pitching. For now, he's in play right at the start of the draft and should be a lock for the first round if he even comes close to matching his strong 2021 season.

2. OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: B. Throw: R. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 5/25/2001. Hometown: Elgin, TX.
2021: 4 HR, .337/.417/.534, 15 SB, 33/23 K/BB in 49 games.
Jace Grady did not reach campus at Dallas Baptist with nearly as much fanfare as Brooks Lee, but after hitting just .187/.295/.237 in the shortened 2020 season, he's been trending straight up. Grady was an integral piece of the Patriots' super regional team, hitting .337/.417/.534 with 15 stolen bases in 49 games, then he took it to another level by slashing .348/.383/.596 with six home runs in 22 games on the Cape. Previously regarded as a potential fourth outfielder who could spray line drives around the field, his power surge against elite competition over the summer added a whole new ceiling to the profile. He's a patient hitter that doesn't chase much, but he still rarely strikes out or walks because when he does get his pitch, he rarely misses it and makes consistent hard contact to all fields. "All fields" can at times be associated with a slap-heavy approach, but Grady is not afraid to turn on the ball and shows some solid pop to the pull side. The Austin-area native runs well enough to stick in center field, giving him a really nice all around profile. Evaluators will want to see him tap that power consistently throughout the 2022 season to feel comfortable popping him in the top fifty or so picks, but if he can continue to show enough juice to profile for perhaps 10-15 home runs a year to go along with his high on-base percentages, he could knock on the door of the first round. For now, he probably fits better in the second or early third, with the fact that he's relatively young for the class working in his favor.

3. SS Andrew Pintar, Brigham Young.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 3/23/2001. Hometown: Spanish Fork, UT.
2021: 9 HR, .333/.433/.556, 4 SB, 29/32 K/BB in 48 games.
Brigham Young has not had a player drafted in the top five rounds since 2013, when the Cubs took Jacob Hannemann in the third round, and 6th rounder Jackson Cluff (2019) marks the only Cougar to go in the top ten rounds since then. There is a good chance that changes in 2021 with Andrew Pintar and Cy Nielson looking to be two of the best prospects BYU has had in a long time, though Nielson has significant relief risk and Pintar is, for now, clearly the better prospect. Pintar hit .302/.381/.358 as a freshman then added power to his game in 2021 with a monster .333/.433/.556 line, ending the season especially hot with eleven multi-hit games over his final fourteen. He has some of the stronger plate discipline in the west and selects good pitches, leading to high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. He loves to get his arms extended and because of that has power to all fields, not just to the pull side, with impressive exit velocities to boot and a chance for above average power in pro ball. Together, that gives the Salt Lake City-area native the projection of 15-20 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at his peak, a very favorable offensive profile especially at shortstop. He'll likely stick there with strong feel for the position that makes up for his average physical tools, giving him an extremely well-rounded game. You won't find many plus tools in Pintar's arsenal, but he has a very strong chance to work his way up as a consistently solid regular who will help the team out in a lot of ways. For now, that's a second to third round projection, but teams love polished college hitters that can stick at shortstop and Pintar fits.

4. SS Jordan Sprinkle, UC Santa Barbara.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 170 lbs. Born 3/6/2001. Hometown: Palm Springs, CA.
2021: 7 HR, .353/.402/.536, 26 SB, 39/14 K/BB in 58 games.
Jordan Sprinkle is a favorite among West Coast area scouts, coming off a huge sophomore season (.353/.402/.536) and following that up with a very respectable run with both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League (combined .276/.348/.362 in 19 games). He makes a ton of contact from the right side, spraying line drives around the field and looking unfazed for the most part against elite pitching over the summer, though he did strike out in over 30% of his plate appearances after posting a 14.9% rate for UCSB. Sprinkle also shows some ambush power and runs into his fair share of home runs due to the high volume of hard hit balls he produces, though again, that power did not show up with wood bats over the summer as he ended with four extra base hits (no home runs) in those 19 games. At a skinny 5'10", he'll likely always be hit over power, and on the docket for 2022 will be drawing a few more walks and maintaining that 45 grade power projection. The Southern California native has a very favorable defensive outlook with plus speed that gives him great range at shortstop, with plenty of arm strength to help him not just stick there but thrive. The overall package reminds me a bit of Jose Torres, who went to the Reds in the third round last year out of NC State and had a very strong debut in the low minors (.333/.387/.590 in 28 games). The very strong glove will buy his bat plenty of time to adjust to pro pitching and if the power never comes along, his bat to ball skills will make him a valuable utility infielder at the least. I see him fitting in the third or fourth round for now with a chance to work his way up this spring.

5. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 12/3/2000. Hometown: Anaheim, CA.
2021: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Troy Melton was draft-eligible last year, but because he was one of the youngest players in the class and didn't quite live up to expectations, he returned to San Diego State and will still be younger than many first-time eligible players this year including four of the next five players on this list. Relatively new to pitching, he looked strong in the COVID-shortened 2020 season (3.22 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) and was tabbed as a breakout candidate heading into 2021. While he did make 15 starts and threw over 70 innings in the Aztec rotation, the results themselves were somewhat pedestrian and he was more hittable than expected. Heading into 2022, evaluators are hoping his youth, projection, and increased experience will help him turn the corner and finally have that breakout season. The 6'4" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, scraping the upper 90's at his best and playing up due to his lower release point and good extension. He adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches led by a sweepy slider in addition to more of a get-me-over curveball and changeup. He pounds the zone with strikes, but his lack of a putaway offspeed pitch left him vulnerable to hard contact when his pitches caught too much plate. In 2022, Melton will want to take a step forward with one or more of those offspeeds to keep hitters off his fastball and get away with more location misses, in which case he could really move up boards in a hurray. Scouts already love the athleticism and projection in his frame, and there is plenty of starter upside here if things break right. He ranked #163 on my 2021 list and hasn't seen his stock move much since, so right now it's a middle-of-day-two projection that will likely change significantly before draft day.

6. RHP Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 11/8/2000. Hometown: Vacaville, CA.
2021: 3-1, 1.57 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 42/12 K/BB in 34.1 innings.
In Devereaux Harrison, we already have an early submission for the all-name team. He's seen nothing but success in two seasons out of the Long Beach State bullpen, putting together a 1.50 ERA and a sharp 60/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 innings, often working two, three, or even four innings at a time. His live right arm earned him brief stints with both the Collegiate National Team and Wareham in the Cape Cod League, and now heading into the 2022 season he's one of the more interesting pitchers on the West Coast. Harrison sits in the low 90's with his fastball and regularly peaks into the mid 90's, and the pitch plays up significantly because he generates exceptional ride to the arm side. His secondaries, namely a slider and changeup, are more of a work in progress, with the slider varying considerably in its quality but flashing above average at its best and the changeup existing really to give hitters another look. The 6' righty isn't huge but he's cleaned up his delivery significantly since getting to Long Beach and is throwing more strikes, though his long arm action still causes some inconsistency in his release point. At this point, he probably projects more as a reliever due to the fact that he's mostly a two pitch guy for now that hasn't been stretched out and struggles with inconsistency at times, though he has a whole spring to show evaluators he can start. If the Northern California native can successfully transition to the rotation this spring and maintain his high octane stuff, he could jump quickly into the top two to three rounds, but college relievers have a very checkered track record in pro ball and it might be more of a middle-of-day-two projection if he can't shed that profile.

7. RHP Jacob Meador, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 10/26/2000. Hometown: Burleson, TX.
2021: 1-1, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 19 innings.
Jacob Meador is just about as DFW as it gets, having grown up in Burleson in the far southwestern corner of the Metroplex, pitching two years at TCU in Fort Worth, and now transferring across the Mid Cities to Dallas Baptist. Meador has always possessed great stuff and he stood out for just that with the Horned Frogs but a combination of poor command and a deep pitching staff meant he never really got the chance to settle in with consistent innings. However, he spent the summer with Yarmouth-Dennis in the Cape Cod League and shined, pitching to a 3.62 ERA and, most importantly, a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings. Now he'll hope that he can continue to combine his high octane stuff with newly found command to fully turn the corner at DBU. Meador sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has touched the upper 90's, once reportedly getting as high as 99, while adding a slider and changeup that are both devastating when they're on. Unfortunately he rarely has everything working at once, and for much of his career his command has been well below average. The 5'11" righty moves very well on the mound and is trending hard in the right direction, and if the change of scenery is enough to help him put it all together, he has the talent to go in the top couple of rounds. His stock could move in any number of directions this spring depending on how his command and offspeed stuff looks, but there's an up arrow next to his name and a lot of area scouts are rooting for the guy they saw on the Cape to show up this spring. If he does, there is mid-rotation starter upside.

8. RHP Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 10/1/2000. Hometown: Washington, UT.
2021: 6-6, 3.79 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 104/38 K/BB in 90.1 innings.
Drew Thorpe does not have the flashiest stuff on this list, but he's been as dependable as they come for Cal Poly and in two seasons has a very respectable 3.65 ERA and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings, beginning with seven innings of two run ball against reigning national champion Vanderbilt in his very first collegiate outing. Thorpe pitched for the Collegiate National Team this summer and was roughed up to the tune of eleven runs on nineteen hits in eight innings, but he righted the ship a bit in the Cape Cod League with just one earned run over ten innings, including nine strikeouts. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out at 95 over the summer but lacking big life on the pitch. He flips in a fringy, get-me-over curveball but really lives by his plus changeup, and he works through that three pitch arsenal very effectively in games. With a sturdy frame and an easy, repeatable delivery, he has the look of a workhorse starter that could give a major league team 180+ innings a year (that's a workhorse these days) while avoiding trips to the injured list or bouts of wildness. To reach that #4 starter ceiling, however, he'll have to improve that breaking ball to at least an average pitch so he can more effectively get to his changeup and put hitters away, and we saw with the CNT what happens when advanced hitters are able to sit on pitches. Given his gamer profile, it seems like a good bet he'll be able to figure something out with that breaking ball, and if he doesn't he probably profiles as a long reliever. It's the most complete starting pitcher profile on this list, though that doesn't necessarily mean "high floor" just because a consistent starting pitcher that tops out in AA/AAA provides the exact same amount of value as a guy who flames out throwing poorly-aimed 100 in Low A.

9. RHP William Kempner, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 220 lbs. Born 6/1/2001. Hometown: San Jose, CA.
2021: 3-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/29 K/BB in 40.2 innings.
It's November so naturally Spokane is in full basketball mode, but the Gonzaga baseball team has a pair of interesting pitching prospects in William Kempner and Gabriel Hughes. Kempner is probably just a little bit ahead of Hughes in terms of prospect status for now, coming off a strong summer in the Alaska Baseball League in which he averaged nearly six innings per start and posted a strong 2.87 ERA and a 44/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings. He stands out first and foremost for having one of the better fastballs in the class, a low to mid 90's offering that can touch 98 in relief and which comes in with tremendous running life to the arm side, somewhat similar to former Oklahoma pitcher and Red Sox seventh rounder Wyatt Olds last year. He also adds a solid slider that can flash above average at its best but which can sometimes lack bite, while his above average changeup plays really nicely from his wide, low three quarters arm slot. The 6' righty has a sturdy build and has shown that he can handle a starter's workload, but his below average control and unique operation likely push him to the bullpen long term where his stuff should tick up. That likely limits his draft ceiling a bit, but there are plenty of teams actively searching for data-rich pitchers who can provide a unique look they can play with, and Kempner certainly fits that profile. Depending how his control looks in 2022 and how many bats he can miss (his 18.3% strikeout rate was just a bit lower than you'd like to see in 2021), we'll see how just enticing the profile ends up looking.

10. C Nate Rombach, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 11/26/2000. Hometown: Mansfield, TX.
2021: 9 HR, .222/.359/.521, 0 SB, 47/25 K/BB in 40 games.
If you look at Nate Rombach's career, you'll really see a story of two different players. He hit .333/.453/.750 with nine home runs over his first 25 games, spanning his shortened freshman season with the first six games of 2021, but his production fell off a cliff once the calendar turned to March and he hit just .106/.268/.242 over his next 24 games with a staggering 39% strikeout rate. Fortunately, Rombach started to bust out of that slump and homered in three straight games against Kansas, Baylor, and TCU in late May, then hit .298/.417/.394 over the summer in the California Collegiate League. So, after all of that, we're left with the question of who is the real Nate Rombach? He's a big, physical catcher at 6'4" with plus raw power from the right side, which he gets to in games when he's going right. I was in attendance for game #21 of that hot stretch to start his career, where he took eventual first round pick Gunnar Hoglund deep on a 93 MPH fastball and later produced very hard hit balls against a hard Hoglund slider and a slow Austin Miller curveball in the same game. He's patient in the box, but he doesn't always have the bat to ball skills to be successful in those deep counts and often came away on the losing end, especially during his slump. It may be a case of finding a balance in his two strike approach between toning down his big, powerful swing and still wanting to do damage. He'll likely always be power over hit, though if he can stick behind the plate, there is enough upside in the bat to be excited. Hopefully a change of scenery to Dallas Baptist near his hometown of Mansfield (where he'll team up with fellow transfer and #7 on this list Jacob Meador, who grew up one town over) will help him put it all together. Behind the plate, Rombach is a bit rough around the edges, but he's a big target back there and his cannon arm helps make back some of that value. With robo umps likely coming in the near future, he has a better chance to remain a catcher than he might have a few years ago. He's also known to have a strong work ethic, which will obviously benefit him on both sides of the ball.