2021 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels must have felt their system was short on arms, because they went twenty for twenty here in drafting nothing but pitchers. They set the stage by going more than a million dollars below slot value on ninth overall pick Sam Bachman, then spent that money on a massive overslot bonus for twelfth rounder Mason Albright, in fact the largest ever that late in the draft. Though they only drafted pitchers, the Angels did not have a monolithic draft and really picked up a variety of different types of arms, balancing power arms with finesse guys, projection plays with now-products, and data-friendly arms with traditional pitchers. I don't love all of the picks, but I'm interested in a lot of them and I especially liked fifth rounder Brett Kerry, ninth rounder Braden Olthoff, eleventh rounder Chase Silseth, and thirteenth rounder Mo Hanley. This was a case where I wanted to write about quite a few more names and had to cut some out.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-9: RHP Sam Bachman, Miami of Ohio. My rank: #19.
The Angels didn't hold back any punches with their first pick, going with arguably the nastiest pitcher in the entire class aside from Jack Leiter. Sam Bachman was simply too much for MAC hitters this spring, putting up a 1.81 ERA and a 93/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, allowing just 29 hits along the way for a paltry .147 opponents' batting average to go along with his 41% strikeout rate. The stuff is absolutely legitimate. Bachman sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and routinely touches the upper 90's, cranking it as high as 101 at times, and it's not your typical fastball flight path, either. He gets really low into his delivery, almost crouching as he springs towards the plate, keeping his release point extremely low despite a three quarters arm slot. That makes the pitch ride like a feather in a hurricane, eliciting a ton of swings and misses. The Indianapolis-area native also adds a plus slider that flashes plus-plus, coming with short, late, bat missing bite, sneaking under barrels at the last second. He doesn't use his changeup as often, but is shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch in time with more development. Bachman fills up the strike zone with his three pitches and unlike most pitchers with truly electric stuff, he rarely gets himself into trouble with walks. There are drawbacks, though. The 6'1" righty has not proven his durability yet, as he missed nearly a month with a sore arm early in the season, though he did impress evaluators in his second start back by striking out all nine Northern Illinois hitters he faced, showing there were no lingering issues with the stuff. Still, he pitched past the sixth inning just once this season and while pitch counts aren't available for every game, I don't believe he topped 100 pitches at any point. For a team like the Angels that has struggled to keep pitchers healthy, that makes me nervous. Still, the upside here is a true ace with three plus pitches and above average command at his ceiling, so you can't fault the pick, especially given that they got him at a big discount. Bachman signed for $3.85 million, which was roughly $1.1 million below slot value, and he has allowed two runs through four innings of work so far at High A Tri-City, striking out five.

2-45: LHP Ky Bush, St. Mary's College. My rank: #86.
Having bounced around from Washington State as a freshman to Central Arizona JC as a sophomore to St. Mary's as a junior, Ky Bush really settled in this year and was climbing boards quickly all spring. In a year where many West Coast arms struggled to stand out, Bush really separated himself with a 2.99 ERA and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, including a pair of thirteen strikeout performances against Santa Clara and Loyola Marymount. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to about 96, coming from a high arm slot that puts downhill plane on the pitch, opposite to Sam Bachman. His best pitch is his slider, coming in with sharp break that works extremely well down in the zone, and he has feel to morph it into more of a curveball at times. Bush also flips in a changeup but mainly pitches off the fastball and slider. Previously a stuff-over-command guy, the 6'6" lefty has worked hard to get more coordinated in his delivery and now fills up the strike zone with above average command, really helping his stuff play up. Because of the steep plane on his fastball, he'll likely have to rely on his slider to get swings and misses once the mid 90's aren't enough to blow by hitters in pro ball, but he still profiles as a #3 or #4 starter once he gets there. The Salt Lake City-area native signed for $1.75 million, which was about $100,000 above slot value, and he tossed 1.1 shutout innings in his High A Tri-City debut, recording all four outs on strikeouts while allowing three baserunners.

3-80: RHP Landon Marceaux, Louisiana State. My rank: #102.
Despite lacking physicality and loud stuff, Landon Marceaux has endeared himself to SEC area scouts just through sheer willpower and performance. He was one of the most consistent starters in the SEC this spring, stepping up for an ineffective and eventually injured Jaden Hill by posting a 2.54 ERA and a 116/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings, including an outing against eventual national champion Mississippi State in which he allowed just three baserunners over seven innings. Marceaux sits around 90 with his fastball, usually a tick above, and gets up to maybe 94 at his best. He adds a slider, curveball, and changeup, none of which are plus, but he shows exceptional feel to sequence and locate them. Every pitch as a purpose and plays off the others, enabling him to hold down tough SEC lineups every Friday even without the electric stuff you'll usually see in Baton Rouge or Nashville or Gainesville on a typical Friday. The skinny 6' righty is a bit undersized but repeats his clean, low effort delivery very consistently while maintaining his stuff throughout his starts, giving him every chance to crack it as a #4 starter at the big league level. He should move quickly and could beat Ky Bush and even Sam Bachman to the majors. The kid from the outskirts of New Orleans signed for full slot value at $767,800.

4-110: RHP Luke Murphy, Vanderbilt. Unranked.
This pick surprised a lot of people, especially given the Angels went above slot. We all knew who Luke Murphy was, as he had plenty of exposure as half of Vanderbilt's "M&M" bullpen duo with Nick Maldonado, but he still went unranked on both the Baseball America 500, the Prospects Live 600, and my tracking list of 243, while sneaking into the MLB Pipeline 250 at #219. Of course, the Angels don't (and shouldn't) care about national rankings and got their guy at pick #110. He came into the season completely off the radar, having redshirted as a freshman in 2019 before walking nine in two innings as a sophomore in 2020, but he put it all together in 2021 with a 2.40 ERA and a 61/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings out of the Vanderbilt bullpen. The 6'5" righty sits in the mid 90's in short stints, getting up as high as 99, and he adds a more inconsistent curveball and changeup that both flash above average. Everything plays up because he puts really tough angle on the ball, reaching his lead leg far across the rubber and releasing the ball well past it, creating a closed off look for the batter. His command improved from non-playable as an underclassman to fringe-average as a sophomore, and he likely would have been a starter had he not been surrounded by names like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Christian Little. It's probably a relief profile in pro ball regardless given his inconsistent secondaries and 45 grade command, but if the Angels are paying him like they're paying him, they probably see him as a starter. You can flip the book and say he's a projectable 6'5", repeats his delivery well, and has plenty of arm strength, and that could lead to some great things as a starter. The Middle Tennessee native signed for $750,000, which was $222,200 above slot value.

5-141: RHP Brett Kerry, South Carolina. Unranked.
Brett Kerry is a really interesting one, and one who I was interested in before the draft but never got around to. He had a fantastic season for South Carolina this year, putting up a 2.15 ERA and an 84/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings, punctuated by some absolute gems against Vanderbilt (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K) and Kentucky (9 IP, 0 ER, 10 K). He was a long reliever for most of the season before taking on three starts late, and there's a chance the Angels could develop him as a starter. Kerry mainly pitches off his low 90's fastball that can get up to 95-96, adding an above average slider when he needs it to get outs. He commands both pitches very well and pounds the strike zone, rarely getting himself into trouble with walks and tending to stay ahead in the count. The 6' righty lacks much projection, but he repeats his delivery well and holds his stuff over longer outings, adding to his starter upside, though he will need to better incorporate his changeup if he wants to get there. He turned 22 in April, but the track record over three years (2.54 ERA, 167/26 K/BB in 127.2 IP) is hard to ignore and while I'm usually not a fan of college relievers, I am a fan of this one. The Winston-Salem-area native signed for $297,500, which was $92,900 below slot value, and he tossed two shutout innings in his Low A Inland Empire debut while striking out five of the seven batters he faced.

6-171: RHP Jake Smith, Miami. Unranked.
Jake Smith was eligible last year at the State College of Florida (JC) and warranted some interest in the back of the shortened draft, but ended up at Miami where his stock has largely held. In his first and only season at the Division I level, he pitched to a 3.45 ERA and a 63/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 innings, originally as a reliever before working into the rotation as the Hurricanes struggled to find consistency in that regard. He has plenty of arm strength, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up as high as 97-98, adding an above average sweepy slider and a solid changeup. There's some effort in his delivery as he tends to jerk his way through it, but the 6'4" righty generally keeps his long limbs in check enough to stay around the strike zone. If you squint, you can see a starter's profile here with the big, still projectable frame, the arm strength, three pitch mix, and ability to provide consistent strikes, though it will take some work to get there. The Raleigh-Durham native will need to smooth out that delivery a bit more to get to true average command, as well as further refine his changeup into a consistent weapon rather than a change of pace pitch. He signed for $247,500, which was $46,300 below slot value, and he's thrown four shutout innings so far at High A Tri-City while striking out three.

9-261: RHP Braden Olthoff, Tulane. My rank: #168.
How can you not root for this guy? Braden Olthoff has had a meteoric rise from where he was just a few years ago and doesn't take anything for granted. Having barely pitched in high school, he and his brand new mid 80's fastball were lightly recruited and he wound up at Palomar JC in San Marcos, where he showed pristine control but was hit around due to his lack of stuff as a freshman. That stuff ticked up a bit as a sophomore and landed him a transfer opportunity to Tulane, and it's safe to say he made the most of it. Olthoff was arguably the best pitcher statistically in college baseball in 2020, allowing just one earned run over 28 innings (a 0.32 ERA) while striking out 47 of the 101 batters he faced and walking just three against Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Fullerton, Middle Tennessee State, and Southern. He was a little more hittable over a larger sample this spring and had his line marred a bit by an eight run outing against Cincinnati late in the season, but he still finished with a respectable 3.78 ERA and a 91/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings. The San Diego-area native now sports a low 90's fastball that can get up to around 93-94, adding a huge 12-6 curveball that he can work into a more lateral slider in addition to a plus changeup. However, that stuff did flatten out a bit late in the season this year and he was sitting in the upper 80's in some starts. Olthoff makes everything play up with tremendous pitchability, deftly working through lineups and keeping hitters off balance at virtually all times, executing his game plans with precision. The 6'4" righty may be big, but he's an old school pitcher who throws with very little effort to the point where he almost looks like he's just playing catch. Aside from the changeup, the stuff is pretty fringy as it is so he can't afford to see it tick down like it did in 2021, but it's a really fun profile that could make him a fan favorite back-end starter if the Angels get it right. Having turned 22 in March, he's a bit older, but again he's still pretty new to pitching and shows so much feel for it that I don't doubt his ability to pick up new tricks. He signed for $122,500, which was $35,100 below slot value.

11-321: RHP Chase Silseth, Arizona. My rank: #105.
Chase Silseth may have gone in the eleventh round, but he received the late fourth round money (roughly slot value for pick #119) to go pro with the Angels' sixth largest signing bonus of the draft. He is very well travelled, having travelled from his hometown in northwestern New Mexico all the way across the country to Tennessee for his freshman year, going back to Las Vegas to play at Southern Nevada JC, and finally landing in Tucson at Arizona. He had an up and down spring in the hitter-friendly confines of Hi Corbett Field, finishing with a 5.55 ERA and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, but there's a lot to like. The 6' righty goes right after hitters with a low 90's fastball that can get up to 97-98 when he needs it, adding both an above average slider and changeup. His command is average but it plays up because he pounds the strike zone fearlessly while working his pitches in and out, all with a repeatable delivery and a sturdy frame that holds its stuff late into games. He can get hit when he leaves fastballs over the plate or his offspeed stuff flattens out, something he'll need to work hard on in pro ball, but I think he'll figure it out and work his way up as a #4 starter. The Farmington product signed for $485,000, of which $360,000 counts against the Angels' bonus pool.

12-351: LHP Mason Albright, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #176.
The single largest bonus in the history of the draft's third day (rounds 11 and on) went to Mason Albright, who received late second round money (roughly equivalent of pick #57) to forgo becoming Virginia Tech's most hyped recruit in years and shattering my heart into a million pieces as an alum. A native of Thurmont, Maryland near the Pennsylvania line, he transferred to the IMG Academy in Florida but like fellow Marylander and Padres second round pick James Wood, he was a bit underwhelming this spring. Albright is not a power pitcher, instead sitting around 90 with his fastball and only getting up to 93-94 at best. He adds a very sweepy slider that has great shape but needs to add significant power, while his above average changeup is his best pitch and could eventually be plus. Everything plays up because he commands the strike zone well and comes from a deceptive low three quarters arm slot that puts good run on the ball, and he can tunnel those pitches off each other well. This spring, the regression wasn't isolated in any one area, rather everything in his arsenal (command included) backed up just a half grade. The Angels likely see that as just a blip on the radar and instead are buying a high baseball IQ pitcher who understands how to work at bats and keep hitters off balance, believing more velocity will come as he adds strength to his 6' frame and gets into their development system. If it all works out, you'll have a mid-rotation starter who combines savvy with stuff and can stick around for a long time. It took nearly $1.25 million to pass up that Virginia Tech commitment, all but $125,000 of which counts against the Angels' bonus pool.

13-381: LHP Mo Hanley, Adrian College. Unranked.
Mo Hanley was lightly recruited out of high school but has steadily improved his game at Division III Adrian College, then after a strong fall, he was a sleeper pick for a lot of Midwest area scouts. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery just five starts into the season, but the Angels were impressed enough anyways to take him here in the thirteenth round. Over the last two seasons, he owns a 3.13 ERA and a 57/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, capping off a successful four year career. Hanley has a huge arm that pumps fastballs into the mid 90's with riding action and a wicked slider that's a plus pitch when it's located. The 6'2" lefty has a unique delivery in which he stands on the balls of his feet as he winds up, lifting his outstretched lead leg high into the air in a way that makes my hamstring hurt before exploding towards the plate. Despite all the moving parts, it's not a particularly high effort operation, though he does struggle to repeat it a times and his command is below average, making his pitches play down. For now, it's a reliever profile given his two pitches, inconsistency with his command, the injury, and the fact that he's completely unproven against higher level competition, but there are reasons to hope for a starting pitcher. The Tampa native is big and strong and while he's far from a finished product, he's been steadily trending up for a long time. The Angels need to smooth out his delivery a little bit or at least help him repeat it more consistently to get his command close to average, while also getting him more consistent with his slider and helping add a changeup. It's a lot to ask from a recently-turned 22 year old working his way back from Tommy John, but if the Angels are patient, it's doable. He signed for $125,000.

17-501: RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State. Unranked.
Mason Erla was a breakout arm in 2020, posting a sparkling 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings before the season shut down. He earned looks towards the back of the five round draft, but teams weren't willing to meet his bonus demands and he returned to East Lansing for a fifth year. After posting a 3.50 ERA and an 80/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings, his profile hasn't really changed much, but the fact that he turns 24 shortly after this article is published dampens his stock. Erla has a low 90's fastball that can touch 97-98 early in starts, coming in from a low three quarters arm slot with riding action that makes it tough to square up. He adds a slider that looks sharp at times but is probably an average pitch going forward as well as a changeup, generally throwing his fair share of quality strikes for average command. Given that age, it's almost certainly a relief profile, but the 6'4" righty should be able to move very quickly in that role and watch his stuff tick up with it. For the seventeenth round, I think it's for sure an interesting bet that could help the big league bullpen out as soon as 2022. The rural Michigan native signed, but his bonus isn't publicly available or at least I couldn't find it.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the Big Ten

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on November 17th.

In contrast to football and basketball, where the Big Ten routinely challenges for national championships, the Big Ten is the weakest of the Power Five conferences in baseball. Michigan’s surprise run to the College World Series Championship against Vanderbilt in 2019 was a key achievement, but otherwise, the Big Ten is a tier below the SEC, ACC, and even Pac 12 and Big 12.

In terms of draft talent, we see a very clear theme here. Eight of the Big Ten Top Ten listed prospects are pitchers, and even they have a lot in common. These stringbean pitchers were listed, on average, at 6’4″ and 209 pounds, and only Seth Lonsway, Mason Erla, and Garrett Burhenn have any significant Big Ten experience. That means the ongoing theme will be projection, projection, projection.

As a map enthusiast, I also have to point out that this really represents the team of the North, with two players from Massachusetts, two from Indianapolis, and one each from Chicago, Portland, Baltimore, northwestern Ohio, and northeastern Michigan. In a sport typically heavier on players from warmer climates, I find that noteworthy.

1. LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’5″, 215 lbs. Born 8/7/2000. Hometown: Andover, MA
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.

Leading the way, Michigan’s Steven Hajjar fits all of the themes on this list. He’s long and lanky at 6’5″, grew up in Massachusetts, and is all upside with just 20 collegiate innings under his belt. Hajjar actually missed the 2019 season with a torn ACL, but he put himself back on the map with a statement start to open 2020. In his first college inning, he struck out Arizona State’s Drew Swift and Spencer Torkelson back to back, the latter of course going on to be selected first overall four months later. When the day was through, Hajjar had tossed six shutout innings and struck out seven against the best lineup in college baseball, and he finished with a 2.70 ERA in four starts.

Hajjar is oozing with traits scouts love to see. The 6’5″ lefty has a ton of room to fill out his lanky frame, which could help a fastball that currently sits in the low 90’s play up into the mid 90’s down the line. What was once a slurvy slider has added finish in Ann Arbor, flashing plus at its best and missing plenty of bats. He’s also improved what was once a fringy changeup into a legitimate solid average to above average offering, giving him three strong pitches from the left side. The stuff is there now and could get even better, but like many arms in the Big Ten, we’re waiting for some track record.

The ACL injury and shutdown mean he’s thrown just 20 innings in his college career, and he walked eleven in that span (including at least two in every start). He doesn’t always get his long left arm coming down in the same slot, leading to command questions that he hasn’t quite assuaged yet in fall workouts. That’s fixable with more reps, especially given that he’s young for a college junior and won’t turn 21 until August, but for now it’s at the top of the to-do list. For now, scouts will just have to dream on the stuff and projectability. With improved command and perhaps a tick or two of velocity, Hajjar has arguably the highest ceiling in the Big Ten.

2. RHP Sean Burke, Maryland

Bat: R. Throw R. 6’6″, 230 lbs. Born 12/18/1999. Hometown: Sutton, MA

2020: 2-0, 1.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 35/11 K/BB in 22.2 IP.

Two names, two towering pitchers from Massachusetts who missed 2019 with injuries. Sean Burke, who has an inch and fifteen pounds on Steven Hajjar, grew up an hour away from him in the Bay State, then spent 2019 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery while Hajjar dealt with his ACL. Returning in 2020, he shoved against a relatively weak non-conference schedule, putting up a 1.99 ERA and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio 22.2 innings. Heading into 2021, Hajjar has the leg up in handedness and a deeper arsenal, but Burke might have the louder “now” stuff.

Standing 6’6″ and 230 pounds, Burke was a cold weather projection arm coming out of high school and has made good on that projection. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, touching 95 with regularity. That fastball gets nice riding action up in the zone and misses bats consistently, playing above its velocity and pairing well with his curveball. That breaking ball is a tight spinner that can be equally tough to hit, and the two pitches give him a very high floor on their own. However, there is certainly still work to be done.

Hajjar has walked eleven batters in twenty innings, and it’s a similar line for Burke, with eleven walks in 22.2 innings against slightly weaker competition. He has a tendency to yank or sail his pitches, which hasn’t hurt him to this point but is something to watch. He has a clean delivery and seems to have finally grown into his large frame, so perhaps he just needs time to harness his loud stuff. Burke also needs to refine his changeup, which is clearly his third pitch at this point and not quite on par with Hajjar. As a two pitch pitcher with command questions, he faces considerable relief risk, but we’re looking at some of the loudest stuff in the Big Ten.

3. RHP JP Massey, Minnesota

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’5″, 205 lbs. Born 4/1/2000. Hometown: Chicago, IL
2019-2020: 1-2, 5.08 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 55/34 K/BB 44.1 IP.

Another name, another towering pitcher from up north. Between Steven Hajjar, Sean Burke, and JP Massey, the latter is the purest “projection” arm, with the most room to fill out his frame and the most work to do on his secondaries. Through two seasons in Minneapolis, the Chicago native has a 5.08 ERA and a 55/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings, not the loudest line but there is stuff to like when you look closely. In addition to striking out 26.1% of his opponents, he also has allowed just a .201 opponents’ batting average. With a considerable refinement, his ceiling is tremendous.

Massey’s best attribute is his fastball, which presently sits in the low to mid 90’s and can scrape 95-96. Given his long, lanky build, it’s easy to see him sitting more consistently in the mid 90’s down the road and touching higher. His two breaking balls can blend into each other, but his slider can really stand out when he tightens it up. We don’t have much of a changeup at this point, and the command is mediocre but improving.

Massey has a lot to work on, but just as much to like. If he can get a little more consistent with that slider and show more 55-60’s than 40-45’s, he has a chance to shoot up boards even without improvement in other areas. Meanwhile, maintaining steady progress with his command and getting it closer to average will help, while the changeup is obviously something to watch for. He’s a favorite among area scouts, and he only barely ranks behind Burke on my list. Watch Massey very closely for any signs of improvement in a multitude of areas.

4. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’3, 200 lbs. Born 10/7/1998. Hometown: Celina, OH

2019-2020: 9-6, 3.59 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 168/77 K/BB in 110.1 IP.

Seth Lonsway was a well-known draft name in rural western Ohio in 2017 but elected to attend Ohio State, then was mentioned as high as the second round for the 2020 draft. A high asking price left him undrafted, and now he becomes a priority draft name for a third cycle. You don’t see much contact in his game, as he struck out 30.3% of those he faced in 2019 and walked 14.2%, then got even more extreme in 2020 with 50.6% and 21.7% rates, respectively. For those more comfortable with raw numbers, that’s an incredible 42/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 innings in 2020.

Lonsway has the loudest “now” stuff in the Big Ten, and it’s not particularly close. His explosive fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out around 96, playing above its velocity because it runs hard and really jumps out of his hand. Then we have two breaking balls, led by an absolute hammer of a curveball that was one of the best in the 2020 draft. His lateral slider is improving as well and looks like at least an above average pitch, if not plus, and his changeup rounds out his arsenal nicely. All three secondary pitches generate whiff rates of 59% or above. To this point, Big Ten hitters have had absolutely no chance to make contact against him, instead relying on drawing walks or seeing fastballs over the middle of the plate.

That command is a serious problem. As his stuff has gotten louder, his location has gotten even more erratic, and he walked a combined 30 batters in 30 innings between the 2019 Cape Cod season and 2020 regular season. He struggles to wrangle that truly explosive stuff, despite a pretty clean overhand delivery. Sturdily built at 6’3″, he has every starter trait necessary except command, so whoever drafts the 22 year old will likely believe in his ability to start. If the command never gets better, the stuff could play exceptionally well out of the bullpen, especially from the left side, and he has plenty of margin for error.

5. OF Grant Richardson, Indiana

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 185 lbs. Born 7/13/1999. Hometown: Fishers, IN

2019-2020: 14 HR, .306/.366/.572, 4 SB, 73/17 K/BB in 60 games.

After four arms to start the list, we get to our top hitter at #5. Grant Richardson was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year, but went undrafted despite slashing .424/.453/.797 with five home runs in 14 games. That was no weak schedule either, as he went 6-12 with a home run in a weekend series against Louisiana State and had a pair of matching 2-5 performances against East Carolina and Ole Miss, homering in both. In a Big Ten Conference weak on position players, Richardson enters 2021 as the Big Ten best all-around.

It’s easy to fall in love with the tools here. Richardson is a great athlete at 6’2″ with plenty of twitchy strength, giving him the ability to impact the game in a multitude of ways. Plus speed makes him a threat on the basepaths and in the outfield, and it helps him get down the line quickly from the left side. His bat has a chance to be special, especially if he can prove his crazy 2020 line was not a mirage. The Indianapolis-area native has a knack for hard contact, consistently squaring the ball up for above average power and plenty of balls in the gaps, where his speed becomes an asset. His strong arm is another above average tool, and if he can refine his reads and routes, he could be a plus defensive center fielder. If not, he should be above average in right field either way.

The big ding in Richardson’s profile is plate discipline, and that’s an important one. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that leads to considerable swing and miss, and he rarely walks. It hasn’t hampered him yet, but scouts will be watching closely in 2021 now that his potent bat is no longer a secret. When Big Ten pitchers like the four above him on this list adjust to him, will he be able to adjust back? Will he at least chase less, so scouts can be more confident he’ll work pro pitching? Set to turn 22 on Day Three of the draft, he’ll be a little older than many other players in the class, but not by much.

6. RHP McCade Brown, Indiana

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 200 lbs. Born 8/15/2000. Hometown: Normal, IL

2019-2020: 0-2, 14.86 ERA, 2.85 WHIP, 11/13 K/BB in 6.2 IP.

After a brief hiatus, we’re back on the “towering pitchers without track record” theme, and McCade Brown takes it to the extreme. If you started off looking at the stats, you might be scratching your head to see Brown listed as the #6 prospect in the Big Ten. I mean, in two years with the program, Brown has pitched in just six games, tossed just 6.2 innings, and allowed eleven runs while walking thirteen. That’s a walk rate over 30%. But this kid is special, and we’re not here to scout the stat line.

Obviously, if he’s ranked this high with those kind of stats, it must be the stuff, right? Correct. At his best, Brown’s stuff is right up there with Seth Lonsway and Sean Burke for the best in the Big Ten. The fastball sits low to mid 90’s in short stints and can hit 96, with nice arm side run that makes it tough to square up. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, but it can be devastating when it’s on. His curveball can be an absolute hammer with late, deep tilt and eleven to five movement. In the video above, he rattles off some eye-popping ones. His slider can flash plus as well, with short, tight bite that comes on late. He rounds it out with a changeup that’s probably his fourth pitch.

All of that is great, of course, and but we’re not here to rank bullpen sessions. Brown has to put up some real numbers this year, and even before consistency comes into play, he has to improve on 30-grade command. The 6’6″ righty loses his arm slot often, tending to cast or yank his pitches and miss badly. Slight improvements to get to even 40-grade command could do wonders for his draft stock, but 30 won’t play on Day One. Then of course if he wants to be a pro starter, he needs to hold his stuff deep into games and show the ability to spin the ball on a consistent basis, not just on “on” days. Fortunately, our Illinoisan prodigy is young for the class and won’t turn 21 until a month after the draft, giving him that much more development time.

7. 1B Maxwell Costes, Maryland

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 215 lbs. Born 7/1999. Hometown: Baltimore, MD

2019-2020: 19 HR, .295/.444/.581, 4 SB, 61/44 K/BB in 73 games.

Maxwell Costes might not appeal to traditional scouts as a right-right 1B/LF type, but man, can this kid put on a show at the plate. He was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2019 when he slashed .266/.397/.547 with 15 home runs in 58 games, but that turned out to be his low point as a hitter. He slashed .380/.514/.789 with 15 home runs that summer in the Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League, then hit .432/.620/.750 with four home runs as a sophomore last year. Put those together, and you have 19 home runs and a .392/.543/.780 line over 57 games in a calendar year – the PGCBL isn’t the most elite summer league around, but you don’t luck into those kinds of numbers.

Costes is no toolshed, but he just hits. Built like a truck at 6’1″, he can absolutely smoke a baseball with brute strength and a loose swing from the right side. His raw power plays way up in games, with 34 home runs in college/summer ball so far, giving him some of the best in-game power is not just the Big Ten, but the college class as a whole. The Baltimore native is not just a one-tool player, as he’s been more than willing to take walks – and get hit – as pitchers stopped pitching to him. In the batters box, he’s been the complete package so far.

I’m going to throw a Brent Rooker comp on here. Rooker, like Costes, was a right-right corner bat that didn’t sign the first year he was eligible, and went back to school to prove his bat. Because of his lack of tools, Rooker had to absolutely explode at the plate to push himself into Day One draft consideration, and Costes may have to do the same without the benefit of SEC competition to show it’s “real.” He has the strong 2019 under his belt, but he didn’t face the strongest competition in the PGCBL or in 2020, and the Big Ten isn’t the strongest conference either. He’ll have to hit a lot to prove it, but I’m optimistic and I think he could be an impact hitter in pro ball.

8. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 200 lbs. Born 8/19/1997. Hometown: Cass City, MI

2017-2020: 10-15, 4.24 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 163/79 K/BB in 195.1 IP.

Mason Erla will be nearly 24 (!) on draft day, making him the oldest draft prospect I’ve ever written about. Erla, who is already relatively old for his class, was draft-eligible in 2019, but he was coming off a 5.49 ERA and 16% strikeout rate and went undrafted. 2020 was a completely different story, when he put up a 1.04 ERA and 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, including an absolute gem against Troy to end the season (7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 12 K). However, he went unselected in the shortened draft, and now the 23 year old is going to give it one more shot.

Erla’s exceptional 2020 was no fluke. Always more of a control/command guy more than a stuff guy, his fastball jumped into the low to mid 90’s, now topping out around 96. Like Seth Lonsway, the fastball plays well above its impressive velocity, coming from a low three quarters release that puts considerable ride on the pitch. By far, that fastball is now his best attribute. The secondary stuff is just that, secondary, with a solid-average tight curveball and a changeup, helped by above average command.

The 6’4″ right hander has a nice #4 starter profile with a plus fastball, two usable offspeed pitches, good command, and a sturdy frame. However, his age complicates things. If a drafting team wants to develop Erla as a starter, they may have to wait until he’s 26 or 27 to see him in the majors, and only as a back-end guy. Putting him in the bullpen, where he could pitch more effectively off that fastball, could help him move much more quickly and get there around age 25. Either way, I see him as a high floor, low ceiling type, and one who could be a big time money saver.

9. RHP Garrett Burhenn, Ohio State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 215 lbs. Born 9/12/1999. Hometown: Indianapolis, IN

2019-2020: 8-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 98/35 K/BB in 112.1 IP.

This is a complex one, but very interesting. Garrett Burhenn showed well in his freshman season in 2019, putting up a 3.96 ERA and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings, but a bad start vs Georgia Tech in 2020 caused his ERA to balloon to 8.02 despite a sharp 29/4 K/BB. Personally, I wasn’t a huge fan and originally left him off this list, but then after more data and digging, noting significant improvement during the shutdown. Let’s jump in.

During his career in Columbus, Burhenn has shown average stuff with a low 90’s fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He’s always pounded the strike zone, but he tended to get hit hard when his pitches caught too much plate. Since the shutdown, McRae noted that he substituted a curveball for his changeup, and he’s worked to increase the spin rates on all of his pitches. The results have been promising, as he now shows tighter breaking pitches while making his solid-average velocity play up. I’m not here to call him the next Bryce Jarvis, but those are promising developments.

Burhenn’s control is ahead of his command, and previously that left him as a “jack of all trades, master of none” type of arm. Now, if he can generate more swings and misses in the zone, he has a chance to play up to a #3 or #4 starter. I’m very curious to see how he comes out of the gate in 2021, with the chance to move quickly up draft boards by proving his new stuff is for real. Down the road, he’ll likely want to pick that changeup back up, and tightening his command in the strike zone will help as well. There will be a lot of eyes on him in 2021, that’s for sure.

10. RHP Willie Weiss, Michigan

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 3/3/2000. Hometown: Portland, OR

2019: 2-2, 2.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 50/32 K/BB in 39.1 IP.

We’ll close out with a sleeper pick. Willie Weiss was a key cog in that famous 2019 Michigan pitching staff, earning key innings in relief of current pros Tommy Henry (ARI), Karl Kauffmann (COL), and Jeff Criswell (OAK). In 27 appearances, he had a 2.97 ERA and a 50/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings as a true freshman, closing it out with a scoreless appearance against Vanderbilt in the CWS championship. However, a minor triceps injury sidelined him for the start of the 2020 season, and the pandemic meant he never got to work back in. Heading into 2021, Weiss has a lot to prove, but could work his way up draft boards in a hurry.

Weiss sat in the upper 80’s and scraped the low 90’s in high school, but there were reports of him hitting as high as 94-95 as a freshman at Michigan. He also flashes a sharp slider that can miss bats as well, and the two pitches helped him strike out 27.8% of his opponents. At this point, he needs to work on his changeup, which is his third pitch.

The fact that we haven’t seen Weiss since his freshman year means there could be significant untapped potential here. With two good pitches, a sturdy 6’3″ build, and plenty of big game experience, there are starter traits here. However, his closed off delivery can make it difficult to get back on line towards the plate, causing his arm slot to wander and miss spots. Even more important than developing the changeup at this point will be getting more consistent with that delivery, as it’s hard to feel comfortable projecting someone as a starter with 40 command. Michigan has a great track record of producing arms, and a cleaned up Weiss could make some noise in 2021.

Other Interesting Options

East Arms

I know baseball doesn’t use the divisional format, but we’ll go with football divisions to break up this section. At Maryland, where Sean Burke has plenty of draft buzz and Maxwell Costes has some eye-popping track record to his name, Sam Bello is a bit more of a sleeper. The 6’3″, 225 pound New Yorker is draft-eligible as a sophomore, coming off a short but successful freshman season where he struck out eleven and walked two over 6.2 strong innings. Built like a tank, he attacks hitters with a low 90’s fastball and a nice slider, commanding both pretty well. He has a lot to prove in 2021, but with plenty of on-paper starter traits, he might not be a sleeper anymore once he gets some Big Ten innings under his belt.

Behind Steven Hajjar and Willie Weiss, Michigan has another interesting option in Cameron Weston. The 6’1″, 200 pound sophomore from the Pittsburgh area is draft-eligible this year with an August 27th birthday, the very last day before the cutoff. He’s a fastball/splitter pitcher that sits in the low 90’s, with a clean delivery and starter’s built. On the docket for 2021, aside from building up some track record, will be sharpening his breaking ball into a usable offering.

Down south, Big Ten rival Ohio State has another interesting arm behind Seth Lonsway and Garrett Burhenn. Meanwhile, Jack Neely is a very different pitcher. The San Antonio native began his career at Texas, but put up a 14.90 ERA as a freshman and transferred to Iowa Western CC. There, he was about as dominant as you can be, striking out 17 and walking four over eleven shutout innings, allowing just one hit along the way. The towering 6’9″, 230 pound righty now comes to Ohio State with a low 90’s fastball that plays up due to tremendous extension, but the rest of his game needs a lot of work. Neely’s secondary stuff is fringy at best, and while his command took a step forward in 2020, it’s still well below average. Further improvement in either his breaking balls or command could bode very well for him in 2021.

East Bats

Our headliner in this group is Michigan catcher Jimmy Obertop. A top recruit from the St. Louis-area high school ranks, he’s draft-eligible as a sophomore after hitting .265/.375/.353 in eleven games. If you’re a college baseball fan, you might also recognize him from his viral ejection against Vanderbilt in his very first game. To this point, the ample strength he packs into his 6’1″, 220 pound frame is his best attribute. It gives him above average raw power to work with and a strong arm behind the plate, while a disciplined approach at the plate should help him make the most of it. However, he’s not the most athletic catcher in the draft, needing considerable refinement in his movement behind the plate. His power is also more a product of strength than bat speed, so he’ll need to prove himself against velocity.

A short trip across the middle of the state brings us to Michigan State‘s Zaid Walker. The Chicago-area native has had a nice start to his Spartan career, slashing .281/.305/.375 with a pair of home runs in 62 games, and he’s hoping for a breakout in 2021. Walker does a lot of things well, with a line drive bat, some power to tap into, speed, and a good arm. At this point, he lacks a true carrying tool, so putting it all together for a strong season in East Lansing in 2021 will be his ticket to louder draft buzz. Toning down his hyper-aggressive approach could aid that endeavor.

West Arms

Outside of the top ten, arguably the loudest stuff in the Big Ten draft class belongs to Illinois right hander Aidan Maldonado. The Twin Cities native has put up ugly numbers in Urbana-Champaign (6.28 ERA, 34/40 K/BB), but also looked great in the Cape Cod League (3.20 ERA, 32/7 K/BB), so he’s a bit of an enigma. At his best, he can touch 96 with his fastball and hold it in the mid 90’s for innings at a time, adding in a sharp, bat-missing slider. However, at other times, the stuff can flatten out and he can get hit hard. The inconsistency in his stuff is compounded by command that fluctuates between 30 and 45, and he’s a bit undersized a 6′, 170 lbs. Smoothing out the pronounced stabbing motion in the back of his delivery could help, but unless he gets much more consistent with everything, he’s likely a reliever.

JP Massey will get most of the attention at Minnesota, but two-way prospect Sam Ireland is a sleeper behind him. The Denver-area native was better as a hitter (.303/.361/.424) than as a pitcher (9.00 ERA, 10/8 K/BB) in his short freshman season, but a full 2021 will be more enlightening. On the mound, his fastball sits around 90 and can bump 92, complemented by an average slider and changeup. There is some power in his 6’4″ frame, though as a right/right corner bat, he’ll need to prove he can tap into it.

Out on the plains, Nebraska offers up a very interesting arm in Colby Gomes. The Cornhuskers’ closer in 2019, he was a starter in 2020 and didn’t fare as well. The Omaha native can sit in the low to mid 90’s with his fastball and adds a nice sharp slider, but to this point he hasn’t had much success in games (5.26 ERA, 24/15 K/BB). His delivery isn’t really conducive to starting, with very long arm action, a low three quarters arm slot, and a pronounced head whack, so I don’t expect him to put up big numbers in the rotation this year. He could be a real sleeper for a team looking to convert him back to relief.

West Bats

Handling Aidan Maldonado and that Illinois pitching staff will be Jacob Campbell, a Wisconsin native who has hit just .197/.303/.280 over two years with the Illini. He’s obviously a glove-first prospect that stands out for his blocking and receiving, so teams will be interested regardless of how he hits. That said, if he wants to be anything more than org depth, he has to take a step forward with the bat. He shows a nice, loose swing with some pop, but even though he doesn’t have a crazy amount of swing and miss, he just doesn’t find the barrel often enough to tap it. Incremental steps towards squaring the ball up more often could make him a solid backup.

The Illini will also have shortstop Branden Comia, fresh off a red hot .426/.526/.702 start to his 2020 season. A bit undersized at 5’10”, Comia has great feel for the barrel and has shown surprising gap and over the fence power at Illinois, but that hasn’t been the case in two summers in the Northwoods League (.200/.341/.270). He has a short swing that’s more geared towards line drives and ground balls, and his lack of production with wood bats makes it hard to project more than 40 or 45 power on him for the future. He’ll also want to cut down on his swing and miss a bit, but with a solid glove that will keep him in the middle infield, the bat will have some slack.

Out in Lincoln, Nebraska shortstop Spencer Schwellenbach has been one of the Big Ten more consistent hitters as of late. The Michigan native has a career .281/.407/.394 line with six home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 52/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, giving off a “high floor, low ceiling” vibe. He’s a patient hitter with some ambush power, though his swing can get a little loopy and the barrel isn’t always in the zone for long. That has led to a fringe-average hit tool where you’d like to see a bit better given his profile. A shortstop for now, he can make it work at the premium position but fits better at second base.

2020 Draft: Top 10 Undrafted College Players

Every year, a couple highly regarded college prospects here and there decide to stick around an extra year, most recently guys like Mississippi State's Jake Mangum and LSU's Zach Watson and Zack Hess. This year, it obviously happened to a lot more guys, so we'll have a ton of high level talent not only heading to campus, but returning to campus next year. Below I walk through the top college prospects on my draft list to go undrafted and return to school.

Nine out of ten names are pitchers, which is a testament to the incredible depth of college pitching in this year's class. It wasn't just that run we saw in the back half of the first round (Jarvis, Cavalli, Shuster, Miller, etc.), but a truly deep class that went well past the top 100 names. With so many options available, teams didn't have to take risks on upside plays like Tommy Mace or Gavin Williams, and these kids decided to return to school to bet on themselves. Guys like Williams, Brandon Birdsell, and Trenton Denholm will still be age-appropriate come draft day, though many others will be older than their competition and Mason Erla will be a few months shy of his 24th birthday by the time the 2021 draft rolls around.

1. RHP Tommy Mace, Florida (my rank: 69)
Florida had two pitchers with draft aspirations in the shortened 2020 draft, but both Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich elected to return to school. Mace was the top college player on my list to go undrafted, with the chance to have gone as high as the second round. He was a well known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, a classic projection right hander as a 6'6" beanpole. Three years later, he's made some incremental progress, but Mace clearly believes (he would prefer the verb "knows") he has more in the tank. His fastball sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, while his cutter/slider hybrid is an effective, above average offspeed pitch and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. It's a fairly ordinary package, but there is still a lot of projection left in his lanky frame and his stuff has steadily gotten sharper throughout his career with the Gators. After putting up a 4.85 ERA and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings over his first two seasons, he improved to a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings this year, including an excellent outing against a very tough Miami lineup. As a slightly above average strike thrower, he's not nearly as raw as most projection arms, and his competitive nature helps him significantly. He'll return as the ace of one of the best rotations in college baseball next year with Leftwich and rising-sophomore Hunter Barco, perhaps second behind only Vanderbilt's one-two punch of Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Mace could have easily pitched his way into the top 50 picks with a strong run through SEC play this year, so he'll hope to do that next year. Pre-draft profile here.

2. RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina (my rank: 74)
Gavin Williams, like Tommy Mace, was a projectable 6'6" high school arm in 2017, hailing from Fayetteville, North Carolina. He hasn't made quite as much progress as Mace during his time at East Carolina, having only thrown 68 innings for the Pirates with a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. That said, he's also eight months younger and won't be much older than most of the regular juniors next year. He throws a premium mid 90's fastball that can touch triple digits in shorter stints, and with his now-filled-out 6'6", 240 pound frame, that velocity comes out pretty naturally. He adds a big, slow curveball in the low to mid 70's, one with great shape but which needs to add power. There's an above average changeup as well, which rounds out his arsenal nicely. The command is sort of shaky, but it's not terrible, and he really hasn't been on the mound all that much anyways. More consistent innings in the ECU rotation next year could do wonders for his stock, and I could see him pitching himself into the top 50 picks pretty easily with a strong stint in the rotation. He probably projects as a reliever, but the upside is certainly there and I wouldn't rule him out as a starter if he makes the necessary adjustments. One big thing he could do would be to add power to that curveball, which he is certainly capable of with his arm strength. Pre-draft profile here.

3. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State (my rank: 78)
Seth Lonsway marks a third straight pitcher who was a big name for the 2017 draft out of high school. Lonsway grew up in Celina, Ohio, a small town just off the Indiana border, and after sitting out the 2018 season, he's become a mainstay in the Buckeyes rotation. This year, he put up one of the most unique stat lines in college baseball, holding a 3.00 ERA and striking out 42 batters in just 18 innings (more than half of those he faced!) but also walked 18 in that same span, including eight in his final start against Stetson. Lonsway has an electric left arm that sits in the low to mid 90's on his fastball, getting up to 96 with relative ease. He adds a power curveball that misses bats in bunches, as well as a more lateral slider and a solid changeup. The ball explodes out of his hand and has completely confounded college hitters, but he really struggles to repeat his release point and that has led to massive command struggles. By walking eight in his final start, he didn't give pro teams much confidence he could fix that, and he's betting on himself by going back for his redshirt junior season. If his command struggles continue, teams will be more convinced that he's a reliever and he could fall out of the top 100 picks, but even cutting his walk rate to perhaps 4.5 per nine could do wonders in proving he can start. Aside from his command, really, there's no reason to believe he can't. And Ohio State will love to have him back because the Big Ten can't handle the stuff. Pre-draft profile here.

4. RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State (my rank: 82)
This one makes a lot of sense, because Kevin Abel has barely pitched since his freshman season and there were rumors he was considering returning to Corvallis even before the draft was shortened to five rounds. If you're a college baseball fan, then you definitely recognize this name, because Abel went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, knocking down LSU, Washington, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Arkansas again in order. In that last start against the Razorbacks, he tossed a compete game, two hit, ten strikeout shutout to take home the National Championship. That was all as a true freshman, but he went down with Tommy John surgery 16.1 innings into his sophomore season in 2019 and we haven't seen him since. Now, we'll be able to see Abel again (pun intended) in orange and black, and fans in Corvallis couldn't be more excited. The last time we saw him throw, the San Diego native sat in the low 90's with his fastball and added an above average curveball and a plus fading changeup, and for a freshman, he commanded it all pretty well. With natural, healthy progression, it's easy to see him having above average command at this point, but of course he's been rehabbing instead, so it's hard to say where that command is today. Either way, with a very solid three pitch mix, a 6'2" frame, and plenty of big game experience, he'll be in a great position to lead Oregon State's rotation next year. Adding a little bit of power to his curveball, which stands out more for its depth than any kind of hard bite, in addition to taking that step forward with his command, would make him a great mid-rotation starting prospect. While the three names ahead of Abel on this list have a fairly wide range of outcomes, I see Abel as the most straightforward despite the injury. Pre-draft profile here.

5. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech (my rank: 114)
Technically, Brandon Birdsell isn't "returning" to Texas Tech because he's coming from San Jacinto CC, where he joined Cubs fourth rounder Luke Little and Nationals fifth rounder Mitchell Parker on an insanely talented pitching staff. Having lost Clayton Beeter (Dodgers, competitive balance round), Bryce Bonnin (Reds, third round), and John McMillon (Royals, undrafted free agent) from last year's pitching staff, Texas Tech will get a needed boost from bringing on Birdsell. What he lacks in track record, he makes up for in projectable starter traits, and I guess teams wanted to see him prove them in Lubbock (or he bet on himself to prove them beyond teams' expectations). His velocity has crept up throughout his college career and was the highest it's ever been in his final start of the 2020 season, where he sat in the mid 90's. He showed a loopy slider in high school outside of Houston that had some nice depth but lacked any sort of power, but he's tightened it up really well and it looks like an above average pitch at its best. With a projectable, durable 6'2" frame, a clean delivery, and solid strike throwing ability, he's really gathering his starter traits together nicely and Texas Tech will look to help him continue on that upward trend. Unlike the other names on this list, he'll be a junior next year rather than a senior, so he'll fit right in with other college arms age-wise. With a full season of success in the Red Raiders rotation, Birdsell could have his stock in a much stronger place a year from now.

6. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC-Irvine (my rank: 120)
This is probably the first one on the list where I'd expect it was more a product of the short draft than him wanting to bet on himself and pricing himself out. Had their been a sixth round, my guess is Trenton Denholm would have been drafted. The Sacramento-area native is a really fun pitcher to watch, and he's been productive too with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UCI over the past two seasons. Sure, the Anteaters play in a relatively pitcher-friendly park and don't have the toughest schedule around, but Denholm has been perhaps even more impressive over two seasons in the elite Cape Cod League: 32.2 innings, one unearned run, and a 41/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Undersized at a skinny 5'11", he makes up for average stuff with an extremely competitive demeanor on the mound and a willingness to attack hitters with everything he has. He throws his fastball in the low 90's, topping out around 93, adding two solid breaking balls in a curveball and a slider. His changeup is perhaps his best pitch with nice fading action, but his stuff really works best when he's locating it well. The good news is he possesses the above average command to make it work, though it's hard to see him adding much more velocity. If he can get a slight velocity bump in 2021, that would help push him more into the top 100 picks, though his undersized frame and lack of a true strikeout pitch probably push him into a long relief role. I wouldn't bet against him though because he's shown the ability to get everything out of what he has, and with a really late birthday that makes him the age of a rising junior rather than the rising senior he is, he'll be fun to track in 2021.

7. OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 126)
After six pitchers, we finally get to our first position player. Parker Chavers (great baseball name) raked for two seasons at Coastal Carolina, slashing .319/.435/.554 with 22 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 101/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games from 2018-2019. The Montgomery, Alabama native also homered seven times while slashing .274/.354/.478 over 44 games against top pitching in the Cape Cod League over the summer, setting himself up for a big 2020 season. However, shoulder surgery meant that didn't happen, and Chanticleers fans thought they had seen the last of him when the season shut down. Now, he'll bring his potent bat back to Conway for the 2021 season. He's a tooled up outfielder who stands out most for his above average raw power, a product of natural athleticism and strength despite a smaller 5'11" frame. There's plus speed as well, though it plays more as above average on the field because his game is raw overall. He has some strikeout concerns that were more evident against top pitching on the Cape than they were against a relatively ordinary Sun Belt schedule, and his base running and defense are in need of more refinement. Chavers has a great opportunity to get that done in 2021, but he was already pretty old for a college junior this year and he'll be nearly 23 by the time the next draft roles around. If he doesn't refine his overall game significantly by then, Chavers will be much more of a day two money saver than a true top 100 prospect.

8. LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia (my rank: 127)
Back to the mound, Andrew Abbott is the first true reliever on this list. A product of Virginia's rural Southside region, Abbott has been UVA's part-time closer over the past three seasons, putting up a 3.24 ERA and a 165/49 strikeout to walk ratio and nine saves across 108.1 innings. With an uptempo delivery, a smaller frame, shaky command, and a two pitch arsenal, there is very little chance he gets to start in pro ball, so he'll head back to Charlottesville to prove he can be a sure-thing type of arm. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95 and brings a plus curveball from the left side, which helped him strike out 28 batters in 13.1 innings in 2020. Abbott is aggressive with his pitches and attacks the zone with a bulldog, closer mentality, but he struggles to locate his pitches consistently and that gives him below average command despite that willingness to pitch in the zone. In that sense, he's a lot like Burl Carraway-lite, though Carraway's fastball is a little faster and his curve is a little sharper. He's relatively young for a college junior and will only turn 22 around draft time, so he won't be that old, but sharpening his command a little bit will definitely be key in keeping himself in the top tier of relief prospects given the extra development time.

9. RHP Carson Seymour, Kansas State (my rank: 129)
This is a clear case where going back to school could really help, or really hurt, your draft stock. Carson Seymour grew up in Southern California but began his career at Dartmouth, then transferred halfway back across the country to Kansas State, where he'll stay put. Seymour is a big 6'5", 250 pound righty with very little track record to speak of, instead enticing scouts with his arm strength and one great final start in which he tossed six shutout innings (one unearned run) with nine strikeouts against Stanford. His best pitch is a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 99 in the past, adding an inconsistent slider and curveball that can flatten out at times and look like above average to plus pitches at others. He definitely has the build to start, but his command is even more inconsistent than his secondary pitches and he throws with a fair amount of effort. Seymour was hoping that strong Stanford start could be the start of a big run through Big 12 play, which was badly needed given his lack of a track record, but scouts weren't comfortable with an unproven arm with just 28 college innings to show. He'll head back to Manhattan (Manhattan, Kansas that is) to refine his game a bit more, which is certainly possible given the lack of mileage he has on his arm.

10. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (my rank: 146)
Mason Erla is definitely going to be an interesting one, because he's almost 23 already and will be coming up on 24 by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Erla has been a solid but unspectacular arm throughout his career at Michigan State, but an uptick in velocity in 2020 led to a 1.04 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, albeit against a relatively weaker schedule. The 6'4" righty comes from a low three quarters arm slot and now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a solid average slider and changeup to go along with it. With solid average command as well, he has enough starter traits to make it work, and could be a big league starting pitcher if a drafting team is willing to be patient. It's not that he'll take a long time to work his way up, it's just that he'll be almost 24 and might not hit the big leagues until he's 26 or 27. Erla probably fits better as a reliever anyways due to a lack of a true strikeout pitch, and he could move much quicker in that role. Either way, 2021 will be about proving his newfound velocity is for real and building off those four strong starts in the 2020 season.

Others:
3B Jamal O'Guinn, Southern California (my rank: 154)
RHP Jack Leftwich, Florida (my rank: 155)
SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech (my rank: 159)
LHP Ryan Webb, Georgia (unranked)
C Casey Opitz, Arkansas (unranked)