OF Zach DeLoach, Texas A&M
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DoB: 8/18/1998. B/T: L/R.
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .421/.547/.789, 6 SB, 3/14 K/BB in 18 games.
Over the past calendar year, very few prospects have improved their stock as much as Zach DeLoach. Over his first two seasons in College Station, he hit just .236/.338/.338 with five home runs over 117 games, showing very good plate discipline (62/58 K/BB) but not much else. He earned a trip to the elite Cape Cod League over the summer and looked like a completely different hitter; in 43 games, which is no small sample size, he slashed .368/.434/.529 with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 30/15 strikeout to walk ratio, putting himself very much on the scouting map for 2020. Under the newly-brightened spotlight, DeLoach continued to perform, demolishing Texas A&M's weaker non-conference schedule to the tune of a .421/.547/.789 line, six home runs, six stolen bases, and a ridiculous 3/14 strikeout to walk ratio across 18 games. He was at his best over his first six games, where he hit .706/.739/1.529 with four home runs.
DeLoach has always had good pitch selection, but his relatively long, deliberate swing made it difficult for him to make much of those pitches. Over the past year or so, he has tightened up his left handed swing and has been much, much, much better at doing damage on the pitches he very capably selects. Not only did he cut his strikeout rate to a minuscule 3.9% in 2020 (and a still-solid 17.1% on the Cape), but he hit for real impact while doing so, showing real, above average power with both metal and wood bats. Defensively, DeLoach is solid if unspectacular in the outfield, showing good speed that he may or may not be able to maintain and an overall corner outfield profile.
If DeLoach had continued over the rest of the season to hit anywhere close to how he hit over the first four weeks, we could be talking about his name as high as the first round. So unfortunately, with much less of a track record than other bat-first college outfielders like Heston Kjerstad and Daniel Cabrera, he won't get that high. The Cape performance is real – you can't hit .369 with power over 43 games by accident there. The 2020 performance looked real – hitting .421 with power while striking out just three times in 18 games is extremely impressive – but he was facing a weaker schedule full of weekend series against Miami of Ohio, Army, and New Mexico State. He got just seven at bats against power five teams (Illinois, UCLA, Okla. State) and went hitless. You can't blame him for that part, but he has long been described as a streaky hitter and that would have been put to the test against an SEC slate of pitching.
Because we didn't get to see him in the SEC, whether you think DeLoach is a legitimate impact bat or more of a role player depends on whether you buy into the mechanical adjustments he's made. There's no doubt that the swing is quicker and cleaner. If you think that will be enough to continue to hit at a high level in pro ball and up to the majors, you could see him hitting 20-30 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and take a crack at him in the second round. If you remain worried about the streakiness or see other things, like average bat speed and a little bit of rigidness in the swing, you might see him more as a fourth outfielder or fringe-regular, feeling more comfortable in the third or fourth round. I think he'll continue to hit in pro ball and settle in as a productive regular, one who will pop for some very good years while looking more average in others.
2020 highlights
Compared to his 2018 swing
Sunday, May 31, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Jake Eder
LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 27/9 K/BB in 20 IP.
Jake Eder has been a well-known name for a while now, one that scouts have been waiting to see put it together for a while now. He was considered a second round talent out of high school in South Florida back in 2017 and ranked 59th in my draft rankings that year, and not much has changed about his profile since. After an up and down freshman season, he put together a 2.97 ERA and a 41/16 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2019, then found similar success in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer (2.29 ERA, 24/6 K/BB). He was a full time starter in 2020, but the results were just decent; he allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his four starts and finished with a 3.60 ERA and a 27/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 20 innings.
Eder is a 6'4" lefty with velocity and a good breaking ball – already, that's enough to get scouts interested. However, literally everything is inconsistent. At his best, his fastball can scrape the upper 90's while sitting in the mid 90's, though there are days where he dips below 90 and tops out around 92. The curveball looks like a legitimate plus pitch at times, combining power, depth, and angle into a devastating strikeout pitch at its best. However, it tends to flatten out at times and can be especially vulnerable to hard contact when he hangs it. His changeup is also behind that of most draftable college starters, but that's more due to a lack of usage than a lack of feel.
His command is similarly inconsistent to his fastball and curveball. At his best, he can look average in that regard and that helped him have success on the Cape, but there are days where he loses the zone and hangs pitches up to get crushed. He sometimes struggles to keep his long arms in check and repeat his delivery. The tools for success are absolutely there, because at his best, he looks like a first round arm with mid 90's velocity, a plus curve, and decent command from the left side. But I am a bit concerned by the fact that Vanderbilt, which is among the best in the country at developing pitchers, hasn't been able to clean him up.
College lefties tend to do well on draft day, especially when they can hit 97 and drop in a wicked curve. Though Vanderbilt hasn't quite been able to help him pull everything together on a consistent basis, pro coaching could unlock that and get first round value outside of the first round. If he does find a way to perform at his peak more often than not, as well as develop a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. If not, the fastball/curveball combination will fit well in the bullpen. He probably comes off the board somewhere in the second to third round range.
2020 start vs Southern California (home plate view)
2020 start vs Illinois-Chicago (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 27/9 K/BB in 20 IP.
Jake Eder has been a well-known name for a while now, one that scouts have been waiting to see put it together for a while now. He was considered a second round talent out of high school in South Florida back in 2017 and ranked 59th in my draft rankings that year, and not much has changed about his profile since. After an up and down freshman season, he put together a 2.97 ERA and a 41/16 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2019, then found similar success in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer (2.29 ERA, 24/6 K/BB). He was a full time starter in 2020, but the results were just decent; he allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his four starts and finished with a 3.60 ERA and a 27/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 20 innings.
Eder is a 6'4" lefty with velocity and a good breaking ball – already, that's enough to get scouts interested. However, literally everything is inconsistent. At his best, his fastball can scrape the upper 90's while sitting in the mid 90's, though there are days where he dips below 90 and tops out around 92. The curveball looks like a legitimate plus pitch at times, combining power, depth, and angle into a devastating strikeout pitch at its best. However, it tends to flatten out at times and can be especially vulnerable to hard contact when he hangs it. His changeup is also behind that of most draftable college starters, but that's more due to a lack of usage than a lack of feel.
His command is similarly inconsistent to his fastball and curveball. At his best, he can look average in that regard and that helped him have success on the Cape, but there are days where he loses the zone and hangs pitches up to get crushed. He sometimes struggles to keep his long arms in check and repeat his delivery. The tools for success are absolutely there, because at his best, he looks like a first round arm with mid 90's velocity, a plus curve, and decent command from the left side. But I am a bit concerned by the fact that Vanderbilt, which is among the best in the country at developing pitchers, hasn't been able to clean him up.
College lefties tend to do well on draft day, especially when they can hit 97 and drop in a wicked curve. Though Vanderbilt hasn't quite been able to help him pull everything together on a consistent basis, pro coaching could unlock that and get first round value outside of the first round. If he does find a way to perform at his peak more often than not, as well as develop a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. If not, the fastball/curveball combination will fit well in the bullpen. He probably comes off the board somewhere in the second to third round range.
2020 start vs Southern California (home plate view)
2020 start vs Illinois-Chicago (CF view)
Saturday, May 30, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Burl Carraway
LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/27/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17/6 K/BB in 9.1 IP.
Burl Carraway's rise to stardom has been pretty abrupt. He was lightly recruited out of high school in College Station, just down the road from Texas A&M, and got blown up in his only two appearances as a freshman. But he came back a completely different pitcher in 2019 and put up a 2.81 ERA and a 72/22 strikeout to walk ratio across 41.2 innings, setting himself up to be one of the top relievers in the class come 2020. He's only helped his case this year, allowing one earned run in 9.1 innings while striking out 17 of the 37 batters he's faced. Carraway has a little bit of competition from Virginia's Andrew Abbott, UCLA's Holden Powell, and Vanderbilt's Tyler Brown, but for the most part, he's considered the top relief pitcher in the 2020 draft.
On the smaller side at six feet tall, Carraway has one of the more recognizable deliveries in college baseball, quickly rocking back then exploding forward with everything he has. That makes him a clear reliever, but it also makes his pitches play up. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's while regularly touching the upper 90's, and its riding action makes it just as hard to square up as it is to catch up to. He also adds a power curveball that's one of the best in the class, coming in with serious biting action and a little bit of lateral movement in addition to its hard vertical drop. He doesn't really use a changeup, and as a college reliever who will do the same job in the pros, he doesn't necessarily need one.
On the downside, Carraway doesn't have much of a track record of spotting his pitches. He's walked 31 in 51.1 innings during his career at Dallas Baptist, a number that would likely be higher if hitters weren't constantly chasing his explosive stuff. The command problems likely stem from his uptempo delivery, but the good news is that they're not so serious that it takes away from the overall product. The track record of college relievers also isn't great. Tyler Jay (6th overall, 2015), Zack Burdi (26th, 2016), and Durbin Feltman (100th, 2018) have largely disappointed so far, while Ben Bowden (45th, 2016) hasn't made it to the majors yet but seems like the only early-round draft pick of the last few seasons to maintain his prospect stock in pro ball. And it makes sense that the track record would be spotty, because starting pitchers often see a big uptick in their stuff when converting to relief and most of these relievers have already seen that uptick before they even get to pro ball – they are who they are.
Because the track record of college relievers is so spotty, many teams might shy away from taking Carraway with an early pick. But despite the command questions, he has a lot going for him. His fastball/curveball combination is among the best in college baseball, two easy plus pitches from the left side that he can use to put away hitters at will. He's also an elite competitor that will go right after hitters, giving him plenty of intangibles that will undoubtedly help him as he climbs the ladder. The ceiling is that of a big league closer, though if he doesn't iron out his command a little bit, there's a good chance he ends up as a seventh or eighth inning guy. Because he could be a very quick mover through the minors, he has a good shot at going earlier in the draft, perhaps somewhere in the second round.
Pitching for Team USA over the summer
Various games from 2019 and 2020
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/27/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17/6 K/BB in 9.1 IP.
Burl Carraway's rise to stardom has been pretty abrupt. He was lightly recruited out of high school in College Station, just down the road from Texas A&M, and got blown up in his only two appearances as a freshman. But he came back a completely different pitcher in 2019 and put up a 2.81 ERA and a 72/22 strikeout to walk ratio across 41.2 innings, setting himself up to be one of the top relievers in the class come 2020. He's only helped his case this year, allowing one earned run in 9.1 innings while striking out 17 of the 37 batters he's faced. Carraway has a little bit of competition from Virginia's Andrew Abbott, UCLA's Holden Powell, and Vanderbilt's Tyler Brown, but for the most part, he's considered the top relief pitcher in the 2020 draft.
On the smaller side at six feet tall, Carraway has one of the more recognizable deliveries in college baseball, quickly rocking back then exploding forward with everything he has. That makes him a clear reliever, but it also makes his pitches play up. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's while regularly touching the upper 90's, and its riding action makes it just as hard to square up as it is to catch up to. He also adds a power curveball that's one of the best in the class, coming in with serious biting action and a little bit of lateral movement in addition to its hard vertical drop. He doesn't really use a changeup, and as a college reliever who will do the same job in the pros, he doesn't necessarily need one.
On the downside, Carraway doesn't have much of a track record of spotting his pitches. He's walked 31 in 51.1 innings during his career at Dallas Baptist, a number that would likely be higher if hitters weren't constantly chasing his explosive stuff. The command problems likely stem from his uptempo delivery, but the good news is that they're not so serious that it takes away from the overall product. The track record of college relievers also isn't great. Tyler Jay (6th overall, 2015), Zack Burdi (26th, 2016), and Durbin Feltman (100th, 2018) have largely disappointed so far, while Ben Bowden (45th, 2016) hasn't made it to the majors yet but seems like the only early-round draft pick of the last few seasons to maintain his prospect stock in pro ball. And it makes sense that the track record would be spotty, because starting pitchers often see a big uptick in their stuff when converting to relief and most of these relievers have already seen that uptick before they even get to pro ball – they are who they are.
Because the track record of college relievers is so spotty, many teams might shy away from taking Carraway with an early pick. But despite the command questions, he has a lot going for him. His fastball/curveball combination is among the best in college baseball, two easy plus pitches from the left side that he can use to put away hitters at will. He's also an elite competitor that will go right after hitters, giving him plenty of intangibles that will undoubtedly help him as he climbs the ladder. The ceiling is that of a big league closer, though if he doesn't iron out his command a little bit, there's a good chance he ends up as a seventh or eighth inning guy. Because he could be a very quick mover through the minors, he has a good shot at going earlier in the draft, perhaps somewhere in the second round.
Pitching for Team USA over the summer
Various games from 2019 and 2020
Friday, May 29, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Drew Bowser
3B Drew Bowser, Harvard-Westlake HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/2/2001. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Stanford.
The Harvard-Westlake School, on the northern edge of the Hollywood Hills, at one point had future MLB starters Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in their starting rotation all at once. The team was similarly stacked in 2020, with two potential top 100 picks in the middle of its lineup: center fielder and likely first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong and shortstop Drew Bowser. While Crow-Armstrong is the better prospect and easily the more famous name, Bowser has more power than his teammate and has generated plenty of draft buzz in his own right.
Bowser's standout tool is his plus raw power, as he generates a ton of torque with his 6'3" frame. It plays extremely well in batting practice, and while he hasn't always tapped it consistently in games, he has been trending in the right direction in that area. That is due to progress he has made mechanically, as he has begun to do a better job of staying within himself as a hitter and learning to trust his power rather than sell out. As for his hit tool, it has improved due to the aforementioned changes, and scouts have praised his baseball IQ and how it gives him solid pitch recognition skills. He has a track record of struggling with harder fastballs, but he has been making progress on that front. Bowser is a shortstop in high school, but his strong arm and fringy range point him more towards third base, where he could be above average.
Bowser's track record is relatively spotty against advanced pitching, and maintaining his positive trajectory over a full season could have really helped him. Instead, scouts will have to buy into what he showed before the shutdown and hope it will continue in pro ball if they want to sign him away from a Stanford commitment. He figures to be a second or third round talent, though signability will cloud that for sure and there is a very good chance he ends up in Palo Alto. As for ceiling, he could be a 30 home run bat with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third, but there is a fair amount of risk to assume.
Batting practice over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/2/2001. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Stanford.
The Harvard-Westlake School, on the northern edge of the Hollywood Hills, at one point had future MLB starters Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in their starting rotation all at once. The team was similarly stacked in 2020, with two potential top 100 picks in the middle of its lineup: center fielder and likely first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong and shortstop Drew Bowser. While Crow-Armstrong is the better prospect and easily the more famous name, Bowser has more power than his teammate and has generated plenty of draft buzz in his own right.
Bowser's standout tool is his plus raw power, as he generates a ton of torque with his 6'3" frame. It plays extremely well in batting practice, and while he hasn't always tapped it consistently in games, he has been trending in the right direction in that area. That is due to progress he has made mechanically, as he has begun to do a better job of staying within himself as a hitter and learning to trust his power rather than sell out. As for his hit tool, it has improved due to the aforementioned changes, and scouts have praised his baseball IQ and how it gives him solid pitch recognition skills. He has a track record of struggling with harder fastballs, but he has been making progress on that front. Bowser is a shortstop in high school, but his strong arm and fringy range point him more towards third base, where he could be above average.
Bowser's track record is relatively spotty against advanced pitching, and maintaining his positive trajectory over a full season could have really helped him. Instead, scouts will have to buy into what he showed before the shutdown and hope it will continue in pro ball if they want to sign him away from a Stanford commitment. He figures to be a second or third round talent, though signability will cloud that for sure and there is a very good chance he ends up in Palo Alto. As for ceiling, he could be a 30 home run bat with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third, but there is a fair amount of risk to assume.
Batting practice over the summer
2020 Draft Profile: Petey Halpin
OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/26/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Texas.
Yet another talented outfielder in a Southern California high school crop that also includes Pete Crow-Armstrong, Isaiah Greene, and Jake Vogel manning the outfield grass, Halpin elevated his stock significantly over the summer and has a very nice all-around profile. Originally from the San Francisco Bay Area, Halpin transferred down to Mira Costa High School in Manhattan Beach for his senior year, where he barely got to play. Still, Halpin made enough progress from the summer onwards to figure prominently into top 100 draft conversations.
Halpin is the kind of player that some might pass over, but others might fall in love with. He has a very loose, quick swing from the left side, and he uses it to spray line drives from gap to gap with great consistency. He has a lean, six foot frame, and his future power production likely hinges on how much he bulks up. If he does get a little bigger, he has the loft and loose swing to tap any natural raw power, but it's probably a better bet that he'll be more of a doubles and triples hitter who can pop home runs here and there. He's a good runner whose speed helps him on the bases and in the outfield, where he has a chance to stick in center field with a strong arm.
We'll probably get a much better idea of what kind of a player Halpin will be after his first pro season. We know he'll make a lot of contact, but we're not entirely sure how the power will play. If he gets a little stronger and taps it consistently, he'll provide excellent value compared to where he's likely to be drafted. Even if he taps it in a roughly as-expected manner, he could still be a 10-15 home run hitter with good on-base percentages and a few stolen bases. He probably fits in the second or third round if signable, though he's also part of a strong Texas recruiting class that includes fellow LA-area prospect Jared Jones as well as Carson Tucker, Tanner Witt, and arguably the best high school pitcher in the country, Jared Kelley.
Batting practice at the end of the summer 2019
More batting practice from summer 2018
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/26/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Texas.
Yet another talented outfielder in a Southern California high school crop that also includes Pete Crow-Armstrong, Isaiah Greene, and Jake Vogel manning the outfield grass, Halpin elevated his stock significantly over the summer and has a very nice all-around profile. Originally from the San Francisco Bay Area, Halpin transferred down to Mira Costa High School in Manhattan Beach for his senior year, where he barely got to play. Still, Halpin made enough progress from the summer onwards to figure prominently into top 100 draft conversations.
Halpin is the kind of player that some might pass over, but others might fall in love with. He has a very loose, quick swing from the left side, and he uses it to spray line drives from gap to gap with great consistency. He has a lean, six foot frame, and his future power production likely hinges on how much he bulks up. If he does get a little bigger, he has the loft and loose swing to tap any natural raw power, but it's probably a better bet that he'll be more of a doubles and triples hitter who can pop home runs here and there. He's a good runner whose speed helps him on the bases and in the outfield, where he has a chance to stick in center field with a strong arm.
We'll probably get a much better idea of what kind of a player Halpin will be after his first pro season. We know he'll make a lot of contact, but we're not entirely sure how the power will play. If he gets a little stronger and taps it consistently, he'll provide excellent value compared to where he's likely to be drafted. Even if he taps it in a roughly as-expected manner, he could still be a 10-15 home run hitter with good on-base percentages and a few stolen bases. He probably fits in the second or third round if signable, though he's also part of a strong Texas recruiting class that includes fellow LA-area prospect Jared Jones as well as Carson Tucker, Tanner Witt, and arguably the best high school pitcher in the country, Jared Kelley.
Batting practice at the end of the summer 2019
More batting practice from summer 2018
Thursday, May 28, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Seth Lonsway
LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/7/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 42/18 K/BB in 18 IP.
Seth Lonsway was a potential top five round pick out of high school in the small town of Celina, Ohio in 2017, but headed down U.S. 33 to Columbus to join the Buckeyes instead. There, he has pitched to some very interesting results. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, he put up a 3.70 ERA and a 126/56 strikeout to walk ratio across 92.1 innings, but then he walked twelve in as many innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer. He started off the 2020 season extremely well; over his first three starts, he put up a 1.13 ERA while striking out an incredible 37 of the 67 batters he faced (55.2%) in 16 innings. However, he walked eight batters in two innings against Stetson in his final start of the season, leaving his status a bit up in the air for the draft. On one hand, he struck out 42 of the 83 batters he faced overall (50.6%), but on the other, he has now walked 30 batters over 30 innings between the Cape and the 2020 season combined.
If anything, it's tough to hit against Lonsway. The ball absolutely explodes out of his hand, with his fastball sitting in the low to mid 90's but playing up because it seems to come out faster than his arm is moving. He also uses a very high arm slot, putting a lot of downhill angle on the ball, but it's clean arm action. After the fastball, he throws a power 12-6 curve that misses a ton of bats, a hard slider with more lateral break, and a decent changeup. The stuff is extremely difficult to square up, with Lonsway having allowed just three home runs over 110.1 innings throughout his college career, and he's struck out 168 in that span. From the left side, that's deadly.
The big problem with Lonsway, of course, is command. For every bit of explosiveness that baseball carries coming out if his hand, it is just as unpredictable. He struggles to repeat both his arm slot and his release point, which can send the baseball in any number of directions. Some scouts have noticed that he is actually pretty decent at landing his breaking balls in the zone, but the fastball just never seems to come out straight. It will take serious improvements in his command for Lonsway to find success in the majors.
With a strong 6'3" build and a clean, if inconsistent, delivery, Lonsway has what it takes to start. If a team can clean up his command and even get it to average, he could be a #2 or #3 starting pitcher. The risk is serious here, and the command has a good chance of pushing him to the bullpen. Because teams undoubtedly will like the stuff, a team that believes in his ability to get his command together could pop him as early as the second round.
2020 start vs Stetson (the one where he walked eight)
On the Cape over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/7/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 42/18 K/BB in 18 IP.
Seth Lonsway was a potential top five round pick out of high school in the small town of Celina, Ohio in 2017, but headed down U.S. 33 to Columbus to join the Buckeyes instead. There, he has pitched to some very interesting results. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, he put up a 3.70 ERA and a 126/56 strikeout to walk ratio across 92.1 innings, but then he walked twelve in as many innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer. He started off the 2020 season extremely well; over his first three starts, he put up a 1.13 ERA while striking out an incredible 37 of the 67 batters he faced (55.2%) in 16 innings. However, he walked eight batters in two innings against Stetson in his final start of the season, leaving his status a bit up in the air for the draft. On one hand, he struck out 42 of the 83 batters he faced overall (50.6%), but on the other, he has now walked 30 batters over 30 innings between the Cape and the 2020 season combined.
If anything, it's tough to hit against Lonsway. The ball absolutely explodes out of his hand, with his fastball sitting in the low to mid 90's but playing up because it seems to come out faster than his arm is moving. He also uses a very high arm slot, putting a lot of downhill angle on the ball, but it's clean arm action. After the fastball, he throws a power 12-6 curve that misses a ton of bats, a hard slider with more lateral break, and a decent changeup. The stuff is extremely difficult to square up, with Lonsway having allowed just three home runs over 110.1 innings throughout his college career, and he's struck out 168 in that span. From the left side, that's deadly.
The big problem with Lonsway, of course, is command. For every bit of explosiveness that baseball carries coming out if his hand, it is just as unpredictable. He struggles to repeat both his arm slot and his release point, which can send the baseball in any number of directions. Some scouts have noticed that he is actually pretty decent at landing his breaking balls in the zone, but the fastball just never seems to come out straight. It will take serious improvements in his command for Lonsway to find success in the majors.
With a strong 6'3" build and a clean, if inconsistent, delivery, Lonsway has what it takes to start. If a team can clean up his command and even get it to average, he could be a #2 or #3 starting pitcher. The risk is serious here, and the command has a good chance of pushing him to the bullpen. Because teams undoubtedly will like the stuff, a team that believes in his ability to get his command together could pop him as early as the second round.
2020 start vs Stetson (the one where he walked eight)
On the Cape over the summer
2020 Draft Profile: Christian Roa
RHP Christian Roa, Texas A&M
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/2/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 5.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 35/9 K/BB in 20 IP.
Texas A&M has had some really good left handed starting pitching prospects recently, with John Doxakis riding a 1.76 ERA as a junior to a second round selection by the Rays in 2019 and Asa Lacy riding a 2.07 career ERA to a likely top five overall selection in 2020. Meanwhile, right hander Christian Roa has pitched in their shadows a bit, putting up a respectable 3.56 ERA and 46/11 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2019. While scouts gathered in College Station to watch Lacy throw in 2020, Roa put on a show in his first two starts, striking out 22 and walking just one over eleven innings against Miami of Ohio and Army. Things were a bit more uneven against UCLA and New Mexico State in his next two starts, when he allowed ten runs over nine innings while walking eight, but he has still pitched himself firmly into top 100 consideration.
Roa has an ideal pitcher's frame at 6'4", one he has filled out considerably while he's been in College Station. He throws a low 90's fastball that can get into the mid 90's at times, adding a whole slew of above average offspeed pitches. There's a top to bottom curveball with good depth, a more diagonal slider that can flash plus with its sharp bite, and a very good changeup that he has great feel for. He throws strikes with all four pitches and has a clean delivery, giving him the look of an impact starting pitcher.
So far for Roa, the whole has actually been less than the sum of the parts. He's been pretty hittable throughout his career, as his delivery might be so clean that it causes everything to play down. While all three of his offspeed pitches get great reviews from scouts, they can be inconsistent at times, and his velocity dipped closer to 90 during those last two starts. Roa needs to work on mixing his entire arsenal more effectively if he wants to be effective against more advanced hitters.
Roa has all of the ingredients needed to be an impact starting pitcher. He has the velocity, offspeeds, control, and durable frame to succeed at the highest level. It will take a little bit of creativity from pro coaching to figure out how to put it all together, with some believing he's just *this* close to that and others seeing him as someone who could consistently underperform. Because of that, there are bound to be teams that like him more than others. He probably fits somewhere in rounds two through four, with a good chance to go closer to the front of that range to a team that loves the starter traits he brings.
Pitching against Louisiana Tech in 2018 (most recent video I could find)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/2/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 5.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 35/9 K/BB in 20 IP.
Texas A&M has had some really good left handed starting pitching prospects recently, with John Doxakis riding a 1.76 ERA as a junior to a second round selection by the Rays in 2019 and Asa Lacy riding a 2.07 career ERA to a likely top five overall selection in 2020. Meanwhile, right hander Christian Roa has pitched in their shadows a bit, putting up a respectable 3.56 ERA and 46/11 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2019. While scouts gathered in College Station to watch Lacy throw in 2020, Roa put on a show in his first two starts, striking out 22 and walking just one over eleven innings against Miami of Ohio and Army. Things were a bit more uneven against UCLA and New Mexico State in his next two starts, when he allowed ten runs over nine innings while walking eight, but he has still pitched himself firmly into top 100 consideration.
Roa has an ideal pitcher's frame at 6'4", one he has filled out considerably while he's been in College Station. He throws a low 90's fastball that can get into the mid 90's at times, adding a whole slew of above average offspeed pitches. There's a top to bottom curveball with good depth, a more diagonal slider that can flash plus with its sharp bite, and a very good changeup that he has great feel for. He throws strikes with all four pitches and has a clean delivery, giving him the look of an impact starting pitcher.
So far for Roa, the whole has actually been less than the sum of the parts. He's been pretty hittable throughout his career, as his delivery might be so clean that it causes everything to play down. While all three of his offspeed pitches get great reviews from scouts, they can be inconsistent at times, and his velocity dipped closer to 90 during those last two starts. Roa needs to work on mixing his entire arsenal more effectively if he wants to be effective against more advanced hitters.
Roa has all of the ingredients needed to be an impact starting pitcher. He has the velocity, offspeeds, control, and durable frame to succeed at the highest level. It will take a little bit of creativity from pro coaching to figure out how to put it all together, with some believing he's just *this* close to that and others seeing him as someone who could consistently underperform. Because of that, there are bound to be teams that like him more than others. He probably fits somewhere in rounds two through four, with a good chance to go closer to the front of that range to a team that loves the starter traits he brings.
Pitching against Louisiana Tech in 2018 (most recent video I could find)
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Jackson Miller
C Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/3/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Wake Forest.
J.W. Mitchell High School, in the northern Tampa Bay area, is one of two high schools with a chance to put two players into the top 100 picks (the other being California's Harvard-Westlake School with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Drew Bowser). Mason Miller is arguably a top five high school left handed pitcher in the country, while Jackson Miller (no relation) is arguably a top five high school catcher in the country. In my rankings, they both place fourth in their respective demographics. While Jackson doesn't have the loud tools of the catchers ahead of him, like Tyler Soderstrom's or Kevin Parada's bat or Drew Romo's glove, he might be the most balanced high school catcher in the class as a whole.
Miller has a quick, loose left handed swing that helps him put leverage on the ball and hit for some nice power, though he's not a true slugger. He also brings the good approach at the plate that you hope to see out of catchers, enabling him to handle more advanced pitching with a relatively consistent bat. Together, he's a well-rounded hitter with average power and average hitting ability, which from a left handed hitting catcher, plays up. Defensively, Miller is again, well-rounded, showing soft hands and plenty of ease of operation to go with a pretty good arm. He's not a finished product back there, but he has shown enough to inspire confidence that he'll stick as a catcher.
High school catchers are the riskiest demographic in the draft. The amount of development that goes into getting these kids' gloves up to par while simultaneously developing their bats leads all too often to prospects "busting." As a left handed hitter, Miller does have a slight advantage, and the fact that he has such as a balanced game now helps as well, but the risk remains. The upside, though, is fairly clear, as just providing a baseline of offense is enough to get you to the majors and provide value. The fact that catchers are so risky is also what makes them so scarce, and that scarcity is why teams will keep rolling the dice on these teenage backstops.
Personally, I tend to shy away from high school catchers just because the risk is so high, but I really like Miller as a prospect. I think the offensive projection is there to hope for upwards of 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, which would make him one of the better catchers in the game. He's in need of a fair amount of refinement on both sides of the ball in order to reach that projection, but he's not completely raw and has more than enough feel for the game to get it done. If signable away from Wake Forest, he probably projects in the third to fifth rounds.
Hitting in 2020
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/3/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Wake Forest.
J.W. Mitchell High School, in the northern Tampa Bay area, is one of two high schools with a chance to put two players into the top 100 picks (the other being California's Harvard-Westlake School with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Drew Bowser). Mason Miller is arguably a top five high school left handed pitcher in the country, while Jackson Miller (no relation) is arguably a top five high school catcher in the country. In my rankings, they both place fourth in their respective demographics. While Jackson doesn't have the loud tools of the catchers ahead of him, like Tyler Soderstrom's or Kevin Parada's bat or Drew Romo's glove, he might be the most balanced high school catcher in the class as a whole.
Miller has a quick, loose left handed swing that helps him put leverage on the ball and hit for some nice power, though he's not a true slugger. He also brings the good approach at the plate that you hope to see out of catchers, enabling him to handle more advanced pitching with a relatively consistent bat. Together, he's a well-rounded hitter with average power and average hitting ability, which from a left handed hitting catcher, plays up. Defensively, Miller is again, well-rounded, showing soft hands and plenty of ease of operation to go with a pretty good arm. He's not a finished product back there, but he has shown enough to inspire confidence that he'll stick as a catcher.
High school catchers are the riskiest demographic in the draft. The amount of development that goes into getting these kids' gloves up to par while simultaneously developing their bats leads all too often to prospects "busting." As a left handed hitter, Miller does have a slight advantage, and the fact that he has such as a balanced game now helps as well, but the risk remains. The upside, though, is fairly clear, as just providing a baseline of offense is enough to get you to the majors and provide value. The fact that catchers are so risky is also what makes them so scarce, and that scarcity is why teams will keep rolling the dice on these teenage backstops.
Personally, I tend to shy away from high school catchers just because the risk is so high, but I really like Miller as a prospect. I think the offensive projection is there to hope for upwards of 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, which would make him one of the better catchers in the game. He's in need of a fair amount of refinement on both sides of the ball in order to reach that projection, but he's not completely raw and has more than enough feel for the game to get it done. If signable away from Wake Forest, he probably projects in the third to fifth rounds.
Hitting in 2020
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Kevin Abel
RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: Did not play – injured.
Here is another interesting profile. A well-regarded recruit coming out of the San Diego high school ranks, Kevin Abel (no relation to OSU recruit Mick Abel) was a solid contributor with a 4.13 regular season ERA for Oregon State in 2018. However, that was just the beginning, as he kicked it into another gear come NCAA Tournament time and went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 29 innings, including a complete game, two hit shutout in the championship clincher against Arkansas. Already a superhero around Corvallis before he even turned 20, he lasted three starts into the 2019 season before going down with back problems and eventually Tommy John surgery. Now, with only 16.1 innings under his belt since that championship-winning shutout on June 28th, 2018, it's hard to know what to make of him.
Long, long ago, when healthy, Abel sat in the low 90's with his fastball, which played up because of his other two pitches. His curve has big top to bottom break, though at times it can lack power, giving him at least an average breaking ball with above average to plus potential. His changeup is his strikeout pitch, with it's great fading action making it extremely difficult to square up. He thrives when he tunnels the fastball and changeup together, and if he can get a little more consistent curveball, that will be a great three pitch mix.
Abel's command was about average early in his college career, which is better than most of his peers at that age. Projecting it now could be a wild card, though, just because we've barely seen him over the past two seasons, but the hope is that he'll regain the feel he had early in his career and end up with above average command down the road. The fact that he was so good as a freshman, and got better and better throughout the season at that, shows that the natural ability is clearly there. The fact that he handled the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament to post a sub-1.00 ERA at just 19 years old speaks to his ability to handle the mental side of the game as well.
It's extremely difficult to peg Abel, who could have pitched his way into the first round had he been healthy throughout his career. Teams are, and should be, wary of drafting someone based solely off what they did two years ago, but it just takes one team to jump at the opportunity to snag a potential impact starting pitcher. Signability will likely come into question here as well, as Abel could easily head back to Oregon State with eligibility to spare and return a much higher pick in 2021. If he is signable, he could fit anywhere from the second to the fourth round, though he more likely ends up closer to the back of that range.
2019 start vs Nebraska
2018 championship-winning start vs Arkansas
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: Did not play – injured.
Here is another interesting profile. A well-regarded recruit coming out of the San Diego high school ranks, Kevin Abel (no relation to OSU recruit Mick Abel) was a solid contributor with a 4.13 regular season ERA for Oregon State in 2018. However, that was just the beginning, as he kicked it into another gear come NCAA Tournament time and went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 29 innings, including a complete game, two hit shutout in the championship clincher against Arkansas. Already a superhero around Corvallis before he even turned 20, he lasted three starts into the 2019 season before going down with back problems and eventually Tommy John surgery. Now, with only 16.1 innings under his belt since that championship-winning shutout on June 28th, 2018, it's hard to know what to make of him.
Long, long ago, when healthy, Abel sat in the low 90's with his fastball, which played up because of his other two pitches. His curve has big top to bottom break, though at times it can lack power, giving him at least an average breaking ball with above average to plus potential. His changeup is his strikeout pitch, with it's great fading action making it extremely difficult to square up. He thrives when he tunnels the fastball and changeup together, and if he can get a little more consistent curveball, that will be a great three pitch mix.
Abel's command was about average early in his college career, which is better than most of his peers at that age. Projecting it now could be a wild card, though, just because we've barely seen him over the past two seasons, but the hope is that he'll regain the feel he had early in his career and end up with above average command down the road. The fact that he was so good as a freshman, and got better and better throughout the season at that, shows that the natural ability is clearly there. The fact that he handled the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament to post a sub-1.00 ERA at just 19 years old speaks to his ability to handle the mental side of the game as well.
It's extremely difficult to peg Abel, who could have pitched his way into the first round had he been healthy throughout his career. Teams are, and should be, wary of drafting someone based solely off what they did two years ago, but it just takes one team to jump at the opportunity to snag a potential impact starting pitcher. Signability will likely come into question here as well, as Abel could easily head back to Oregon State with eligibility to spare and return a much higher pick in 2021. If he is signable, he could fit anywhere from the second to the fourth round, though he more likely ends up closer to the back of that range.
2019 start vs Nebraska
2018 championship-winning start vs Arkansas
Monday, May 25, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Gavin Williams
RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/26/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5/2 K/BB in 3 IP.
In 2017, Gavin Williams was a well-known, if raw, prospect coming out of Fayetteville, North Carolina, one who stood 6'6" and was primarily known for running his fastball into the mid 90's. Three years later, he's more or less the same prospect. In his lone full season in 2019, he put up a 4.56 ERA and a 56/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 49.1 innings for ECU, then a finger injury limited him to just three innings as a junior in 2020. He's one of the more polarizing prospects in a class full of polarizing prospects, a classic projection project despite being a junior in college. Personally, I'm a fan and I'm buying into the upside.
Still standing 6'6", Williams has added a tick of velocity to his fastball since high school, now sitting comfortably in the mid 90's while consistently running it into the upper 90's and touching triple digits at times. He doesn't have to sell out to reach that velocity, either, with as strong of a right arm as you'll see in this class. The rest of his stuff, though, needs work. He has a big curveball that tends to be more than 20 miles per hour slower than his fastball, showing great shape and depth at times but rarely showing enough power to get big league hitters out. He'll need to focus on sharpening that pitch up, because pro hitters will be able to sit on his heater and have plenty of time to react to the big breaker. He also throws a pretty good changeup, one that can bump the upper 80's and show good fading action, giving him three pitches with potential.
Williams has much less of a track record than most college arms, having thrown a grand total of 68 innings for the Pirates. While he's not wild, his command is far from refined and his track record of throwing strikes is even more limited with 32 walks in that span. The good news is that Williams is actually pretty young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, which theoretically gives him more time to sharpen his game. There is a lot for him to work on, namely sharpening his command and offspeed pitches, but the fact that he hasn't actually been on the mound all that much might bode well for his ability to develop that in the future.
If Williams does get everything figured out, his upside is sky high. At a listed 6'6" and 240 pounds, he has the frame to start. There is significant reliever risk though, probably more likely than not, but the thought of him sitting close to 100 out of the bullpen is not a comforting thought for hitters. The building blocks are there – he throws extremely hard, his curveball has great top to bottom shape, and he does have feel for that changeup. Williams probably ends up getting drafted in the third or fourth round, especially with teams valuing track record, but his upside perhaps fits closer with most of the second round prospects.
Pitching in 2019
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/26/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5/2 K/BB in 3 IP.
In 2017, Gavin Williams was a well-known, if raw, prospect coming out of Fayetteville, North Carolina, one who stood 6'6" and was primarily known for running his fastball into the mid 90's. Three years later, he's more or less the same prospect. In his lone full season in 2019, he put up a 4.56 ERA and a 56/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 49.1 innings for ECU, then a finger injury limited him to just three innings as a junior in 2020. He's one of the more polarizing prospects in a class full of polarizing prospects, a classic projection project despite being a junior in college. Personally, I'm a fan and I'm buying into the upside.
Still standing 6'6", Williams has added a tick of velocity to his fastball since high school, now sitting comfortably in the mid 90's while consistently running it into the upper 90's and touching triple digits at times. He doesn't have to sell out to reach that velocity, either, with as strong of a right arm as you'll see in this class. The rest of his stuff, though, needs work. He has a big curveball that tends to be more than 20 miles per hour slower than his fastball, showing great shape and depth at times but rarely showing enough power to get big league hitters out. He'll need to focus on sharpening that pitch up, because pro hitters will be able to sit on his heater and have plenty of time to react to the big breaker. He also throws a pretty good changeup, one that can bump the upper 80's and show good fading action, giving him three pitches with potential.
Williams has much less of a track record than most college arms, having thrown a grand total of 68 innings for the Pirates. While he's not wild, his command is far from refined and his track record of throwing strikes is even more limited with 32 walks in that span. The good news is that Williams is actually pretty young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, which theoretically gives him more time to sharpen his game. There is a lot for him to work on, namely sharpening his command and offspeed pitches, but the fact that he hasn't actually been on the mound all that much might bode well for his ability to develop that in the future.
If Williams does get everything figured out, his upside is sky high. At a listed 6'6" and 240 pounds, he has the frame to start. There is significant reliever risk though, probably more likely than not, but the thought of him sitting close to 100 out of the bullpen is not a comforting thought for hitters. The building blocks are there – he throws extremely hard, his curveball has great top to bottom shape, and he does have feel for that changeup. Williams probably ends up getting drafted in the third or fourth round, especially with teams valuing track record, but his upside perhaps fits closer with most of the second round prospects.
Pitching in 2019
2020 Draft Profile: Freddy Zamora
SS Freddy Zamora, Miami
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 11/1/1998. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats: Did not play (injured).
Heading into the season, it looked like Miami could have three of the top fifty picks between pitchers Chris McMahon and Slade Cecconi and shortstop Freddy Zamora. McMahon and Cecconi have cemented themselves well within that range and potentially even in the first round, but Zamora blew out his knee in practice just days before the season began and never got to take the field. The shutdown therefore helps him a bit more than it hurts him, as he wouldn't have played anyways. Zamora is a glove-first type of player, but he has a good track record of hitting that includes a .303/.388/.412 line as a freshman and an improved .296/.393/.447 line with six home runs as a sophomore, walking more (55) than he struck out (45) in the process.
Zamora is a talented player on both sides of the ball, no doubt. As a hitter, he has never had any trouble making consistent contact from the right side, spraying line drives around the field with relative ease. He rarely strikes out, and he's patient enough to draw his share of walks as well. While he's not a power hitter, he jumped from one home run as a freshman to six home runs as a sophomore, making him more than just a slap hitter. His strong, athletic frame lends itself well to being a productive bat at the next level. Defensively, he's a no-doubt shortstop, showing the ability to not only stick there, but potentially be an above average, impact defender.
The glove takes a lot of pressure off the bat, as he could stick as a utility infielder even if his bat turns out to be a bit light. The fact that he didn't play at all in 2020 doesn't hurt his stock as much as it could have in a pandemic-less world, and in the four weeks of the season, a lot more pitchers took steps forward than hitters. One downside to his profile is makeup, as scouts have long questioned his work ethic and he was briefly suspended from the team late in the winter this year for "violating team rules." I've never met the guy, so it wouldn't be fair for me to knock him too much, but it's something to think about before potentially investing a million dollars and shipping him off to work through the grueling minor leagues.
Zamora comes with a pretty high floor, as his defense and baseline offensive ability makes him a great utility profile at minimum. If his power continues to develop as it has, he could end up a starting shortstop with 10-15 home runs and solid on-base percentages annually. It's not the world's most exciting profile, but with more shifting nowadays, it's good to be able to shift fringier defenders off shortstop over to third base, where more and more range is needed. Zamora's great defense at shortstop can allow a team to do that with a more fringy defender, and still be confident they'll get some offense. He fits anywhere from the late second round back into the fourth round.
Batting practice with a few teammates (he's #2)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 11/1/1998. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats: Did not play (injured).
Heading into the season, it looked like Miami could have three of the top fifty picks between pitchers Chris McMahon and Slade Cecconi and shortstop Freddy Zamora. McMahon and Cecconi have cemented themselves well within that range and potentially even in the first round, but Zamora blew out his knee in practice just days before the season began and never got to take the field. The shutdown therefore helps him a bit more than it hurts him, as he wouldn't have played anyways. Zamora is a glove-first type of player, but he has a good track record of hitting that includes a .303/.388/.412 line as a freshman and an improved .296/.393/.447 line with six home runs as a sophomore, walking more (55) than he struck out (45) in the process.
Zamora is a talented player on both sides of the ball, no doubt. As a hitter, he has never had any trouble making consistent contact from the right side, spraying line drives around the field with relative ease. He rarely strikes out, and he's patient enough to draw his share of walks as well. While he's not a power hitter, he jumped from one home run as a freshman to six home runs as a sophomore, making him more than just a slap hitter. His strong, athletic frame lends itself well to being a productive bat at the next level. Defensively, he's a no-doubt shortstop, showing the ability to not only stick there, but potentially be an above average, impact defender.
The glove takes a lot of pressure off the bat, as he could stick as a utility infielder even if his bat turns out to be a bit light. The fact that he didn't play at all in 2020 doesn't hurt his stock as much as it could have in a pandemic-less world, and in the four weeks of the season, a lot more pitchers took steps forward than hitters. One downside to his profile is makeup, as scouts have long questioned his work ethic and he was briefly suspended from the team late in the winter this year for "violating team rules." I've never met the guy, so it wouldn't be fair for me to knock him too much, but it's something to think about before potentially investing a million dollars and shipping him off to work through the grueling minor leagues.
Zamora comes with a pretty high floor, as his defense and baseline offensive ability makes him a great utility profile at minimum. If his power continues to develop as it has, he could end up a starting shortstop with 10-15 home runs and solid on-base percentages annually. It's not the world's most exciting profile, but with more shifting nowadays, it's good to be able to shift fringier defenders off shortstop over to third base, where more and more range is needed. Zamora's great defense at shortstop can allow a team to do that with a more fringy defender, and still be confident they'll get some offense. He fits anywhere from the late second round back into the fourth round.
Batting practice with a few teammates (he's #2)
2020 Draft Profile: Enrique Bradfield
CF Enrique Bradfield, American Heritage HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/2/2001. B/T: L/L.
Commitment: Vanderbilt.
Enrique Bradfield is one of the premier leadoff-types in this high school class, and he's definitely in the right place to get a lot of exposure. For one, he plays in the Miami area, which is particularly strong this year with nearly ten high school players who could be drafted in the top five rounds this year if signable. Additionally, he's part of the best recruiting class outfield in the country, joining likely first round picks Pete Crow-Armstrong and Robert Hassell as Vanderbilt signees. While he may be competing with LA-area infielder Milan Tolentino and Georgia Tech infielder Luke Waddell for the least power among potential top 100 draftees, the rest of his game is very strong and he could intrigue a team that likes more old-school prospects.
The first thing everyone will notice about Bradfield is the speed. He has true plus-plus wheels that enable him to impact the game on both sides of the ball, perhaps more than any other player in the class. That's key, because he's a very skinny kid at a listed 155 pounds who won't hit for much power at all. He has a loose left handed swing that enables him to put the ball in play consistently, then use his wheels to do the rest. The approach can get very slap-heavy, as he has a tendency to just drop the bat to the ball and try to beat out choppy ground balls to the other side, but he has shown the ability to drive the ball with at least moderate authority to the gaps. Defensively, he's one of the best center fielders in the class, and his pure speed in addition to good instincts gives him perhaps the best defensive upside of any high school outfielders around.
Bradfield's ultimate projection comes down to how much extra base power he'll be able to hit for. Expecting more than a couple home runs here and there would be unrealistic, but in order to succeed at the next level, he'll need to prove he can drive the ball into the gaps consistently to best deploy his speed. He'll always be a threat for infield hits, but defenses get better and better as you progress towards the majors and it won't be like tormenting the high school infielders he's faced in South Florida. There aren't a lot of successful big leaguers with Bradfield's profile, with perhaps the most similar player being fellow Floridian Mallex Smith.
All of that said, I think Bradfield has a very good chance to reach the upper end of his projections. That probably means single digit home run totals even if they keep juicing the baseballs, but he could produce upwards of 30-40 combined doubles and triples annually with solid on-base percentages and lots of stolen bases. Combine that with great defense, and it's an old school, prototypical leadoff profile. Because the game has moved away from that type of player in recent years in addition to him being a potentially difficult sign away from Vanderbilt, he has a fairly wide draft variance, but his talent fits anywhere from rounds two through four.
Hitting on the showcase circuit, summer 2019
Opposite field line drive from 2020 game action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/2/2001. B/T: L/L.
Commitment: Vanderbilt.
Enrique Bradfield is one of the premier leadoff-types in this high school class, and he's definitely in the right place to get a lot of exposure. For one, he plays in the Miami area, which is particularly strong this year with nearly ten high school players who could be drafted in the top five rounds this year if signable. Additionally, he's part of the best recruiting class outfield in the country, joining likely first round picks Pete Crow-Armstrong and Robert Hassell as Vanderbilt signees. While he may be competing with LA-area infielder Milan Tolentino and Georgia Tech infielder Luke Waddell for the least power among potential top 100 draftees, the rest of his game is very strong and he could intrigue a team that likes more old-school prospects.
The first thing everyone will notice about Bradfield is the speed. He has true plus-plus wheels that enable him to impact the game on both sides of the ball, perhaps more than any other player in the class. That's key, because he's a very skinny kid at a listed 155 pounds who won't hit for much power at all. He has a loose left handed swing that enables him to put the ball in play consistently, then use his wheels to do the rest. The approach can get very slap-heavy, as he has a tendency to just drop the bat to the ball and try to beat out choppy ground balls to the other side, but he has shown the ability to drive the ball with at least moderate authority to the gaps. Defensively, he's one of the best center fielders in the class, and his pure speed in addition to good instincts gives him perhaps the best defensive upside of any high school outfielders around.
Bradfield's ultimate projection comes down to how much extra base power he'll be able to hit for. Expecting more than a couple home runs here and there would be unrealistic, but in order to succeed at the next level, he'll need to prove he can drive the ball into the gaps consistently to best deploy his speed. He'll always be a threat for infield hits, but defenses get better and better as you progress towards the majors and it won't be like tormenting the high school infielders he's faced in South Florida. There aren't a lot of successful big leaguers with Bradfield's profile, with perhaps the most similar player being fellow Floridian Mallex Smith.
All of that said, I think Bradfield has a very good chance to reach the upper end of his projections. That probably means single digit home run totals even if they keep juicing the baseballs, but he could produce upwards of 30-40 combined doubles and triples annually with solid on-base percentages and lots of stolen bases. Combine that with great defense, and it's an old school, prototypical leadoff profile. Because the game has moved away from that type of player in recent years in addition to him being a potentially difficult sign away from Vanderbilt, he has a fairly wide draft variance, but his talent fits anywhere from rounds two through four.
Hitting on the showcase circuit, summer 2019
Opposite field line drive from 2020 game action
2020 Draft Profile: Ian Seymour
LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/13/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 40/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP
Of course, I spent four years at Virginia Tech from 2016-2019, and in that time the highest drafted players we had were Packy Naughton (9th round, Reds, 2017), Andrew McDonald (9th round, Reds, 2018), Aaron McGarrity (15th round, Yankees, 2017), and Kerry Carpenter (19th round, Tigers, 2019). I enjoyed watching Naughton during my freshman and sophomore years, though he put up ERA's north of 6.00 in both seasons and has been much, much better in pro ball. In 2020, though I wasn't there to see it, the Hokies finally have a top three rounds draft prospect, as Worcester, MA native Ian Seymour broke out with a big Cape performance and a louder, if shorter, junior season. He put up decent number as a sophomore (3.97 ERA, 81/24 K/BB), though I didn't make it to as many games that year as I would have liked, then he came out and dominated on the Cape (2.48 ERA, 39/6 K/BB in 25.1 IP). Coming out in 2020, he was even better, putting up a 2.21 ERA and a 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio across just 20.1 innings, finishing off his VT career on a loud note with 14 strikeouts against Georgia Tech. I was planning on heading to Blacksburg to watch his next start against Miami, but that one never happened.
Seymour is one of those guys where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. He added a tick of velocity this spring and sat consistently in the low 90's, and also throws a slider and a changeup. The slider stands out more for its velocity than its movement, but it tunnels well with his fastball and has some nice two-plane bite. The changeup is easily his best pitch, coming in with great arm-side fade and missing a ton of bats both on the Cape and in NCAA play. Everything he throws plays up because of his funky left handed delivery, which helps him, hide the ball, disrupt timing, and get good angle on his pitches. Throw in above average command, and he's suddenly a very tough pitcher to square up.
In the past, there have been significant reliever questions with Seymour, as he's shorter for a pitcher at six feet tall, has that funky delivery, and didn't throw all that hard. The Cape performance and especially his spring performance have helped shed that "funky lefty" label and made him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He'll still face some reliever questions until he sharpens up that slider, but they don't dominate the discussion anymore. There are a lot of similarities to Wake Forest lefty Jared Shuster here, including that they're both ACC lefties from Massachusetts, though Shuster throws a bit harder.
Seymour has quietly worked his way from fourth/fifth round discussions up into the second/third round. He has the upside of a #3/#4 starting pitcher who could fall back as a funky, fastball/changeup lefty reliever, and he's trending more quickly towards the former than the latter. His three pitch mix, combined with a delivery that makes it tough to pick the ball up and the ability to spot his pitches generally where he wants them, not to mention his handedness, makes him a very intriguing arm that a lot of teams could try to jump at. I'm still disappointed I didn't go see him as often as I could have during my senior/his sophomore year.
Cape Cod action
More Cape action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/13/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 40/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP
Of course, I spent four years at Virginia Tech from 2016-2019, and in that time the highest drafted players we had were Packy Naughton (9th round, Reds, 2017), Andrew McDonald (9th round, Reds, 2018), Aaron McGarrity (15th round, Yankees, 2017), and Kerry Carpenter (19th round, Tigers, 2019). I enjoyed watching Naughton during my freshman and sophomore years, though he put up ERA's north of 6.00 in both seasons and has been much, much better in pro ball. In 2020, though I wasn't there to see it, the Hokies finally have a top three rounds draft prospect, as Worcester, MA native Ian Seymour broke out with a big Cape performance and a louder, if shorter, junior season. He put up decent number as a sophomore (3.97 ERA, 81/24 K/BB), though I didn't make it to as many games that year as I would have liked, then he came out and dominated on the Cape (2.48 ERA, 39/6 K/BB in 25.1 IP). Coming out in 2020, he was even better, putting up a 2.21 ERA and a 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio across just 20.1 innings, finishing off his VT career on a loud note with 14 strikeouts against Georgia Tech. I was planning on heading to Blacksburg to watch his next start against Miami, but that one never happened.
Seymour is one of those guys where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. He added a tick of velocity this spring and sat consistently in the low 90's, and also throws a slider and a changeup. The slider stands out more for its velocity than its movement, but it tunnels well with his fastball and has some nice two-plane bite. The changeup is easily his best pitch, coming in with great arm-side fade and missing a ton of bats both on the Cape and in NCAA play. Everything he throws plays up because of his funky left handed delivery, which helps him, hide the ball, disrupt timing, and get good angle on his pitches. Throw in above average command, and he's suddenly a very tough pitcher to square up.
In the past, there have been significant reliever questions with Seymour, as he's shorter for a pitcher at six feet tall, has that funky delivery, and didn't throw all that hard. The Cape performance and especially his spring performance have helped shed that "funky lefty" label and made him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He'll still face some reliever questions until he sharpens up that slider, but they don't dominate the discussion anymore. There are a lot of similarities to Wake Forest lefty Jared Shuster here, including that they're both ACC lefties from Massachusetts, though Shuster throws a bit harder.
Seymour has quietly worked his way from fourth/fifth round discussions up into the second/third round. He has the upside of a #3/#4 starting pitcher who could fall back as a funky, fastball/changeup lefty reliever, and he's trending more quickly towards the former than the latter. His three pitch mix, combined with a delivery that makes it tough to pick the ball up and the ability to spot his pitches generally where he wants them, not to mention his handedness, makes him a very intriguing arm that a lot of teams could try to jump at. I'm still disappointed I didn't go see him as often as I could have during my senior/his sophomore year.
Cape Cod action
More Cape action
Sunday, May 24, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Yorke
SS Nick Yorke, Archbishop Mitty HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/2/2002. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Arizona.
Nick Yorke was trending up when the season shut down, and while high school hitters are among the toughest types of players to evaluate without seeing them in person, he's one of my favorite hitters in the draft. San Jose's Archbishop Mitty is one of the top programs in the San Francisco Bay Area, having produced current big leaguers Mitch Haniger (via Cal Poly) and Trevor Hildenberger (via Cal Berkeley), and though Yorke is a better prospect than either were coming out of high school. He's part of an exceptional California prep class and is likely the top hitter in the Bay Area.
Yorke's top tool is definitely the hit tool. I love his right handed swing, in which he uses his very quick hands to get the bat through the zone in a hurry and create some leverage while doing so. There's a slight bat wrap before the swing which can make him just a little bit long to the ball, but he has had no problem making contact against advanced pitching and pro coaching should be able to iron that out pretty easily. While he's not a huge power threat at a listed six feet tall, he was reportedly hitting the ball with more authority this spring and his swing is definitely conducive to that if he wants it to be. Either way, the hit tool grades out as above average and could end up plus down the road. Defensively, it's not quite known where Yorke will end up, as he's a steady defender at shortstop who could be able to stick there if he can get a bit more physical. He's an average runner who is more of an instincts-based defender, and it's hard to get a read on his arm because he's been recovering from shoulder problems. So in reality, he could end up pretty much anywhere in the infield aside from first base.
If Yorke can stick at shortstop, that's an excellent overall profile. His bat projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, perhaps closer to 20 home runs if we want to be optimistic and they keep juicing the baseballs, and that's true impact offense from a shortstop. If he has to move to second or third base, it could still profile as a regular. I'm definitely on the optimistic side when it comes to his bat, and I see it as potentially even a second round profile if he can stick at shortstop. As with most high schoolers, signability clouds his likely draft range, but most teams probably see him as a third to fourth round talent. If he chooses to head to Arizona, three years of production in the Pac 12 could make him a high pick in 2023.
Hitting and fielding over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/2/2002. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Arizona.
Nick Yorke was trending up when the season shut down, and while high school hitters are among the toughest types of players to evaluate without seeing them in person, he's one of my favorite hitters in the draft. San Jose's Archbishop Mitty is one of the top programs in the San Francisco Bay Area, having produced current big leaguers Mitch Haniger (via Cal Poly) and Trevor Hildenberger (via Cal Berkeley), and though Yorke is a better prospect than either were coming out of high school. He's part of an exceptional California prep class and is likely the top hitter in the Bay Area.
Yorke's top tool is definitely the hit tool. I love his right handed swing, in which he uses his very quick hands to get the bat through the zone in a hurry and create some leverage while doing so. There's a slight bat wrap before the swing which can make him just a little bit long to the ball, but he has had no problem making contact against advanced pitching and pro coaching should be able to iron that out pretty easily. While he's not a huge power threat at a listed six feet tall, he was reportedly hitting the ball with more authority this spring and his swing is definitely conducive to that if he wants it to be. Either way, the hit tool grades out as above average and could end up plus down the road. Defensively, it's not quite known where Yorke will end up, as he's a steady defender at shortstop who could be able to stick there if he can get a bit more physical. He's an average runner who is more of an instincts-based defender, and it's hard to get a read on his arm because he's been recovering from shoulder problems. So in reality, he could end up pretty much anywhere in the infield aside from first base.
If Yorke can stick at shortstop, that's an excellent overall profile. His bat projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, perhaps closer to 20 home runs if we want to be optimistic and they keep juicing the baseballs, and that's true impact offense from a shortstop. If he has to move to second or third base, it could still profile as a regular. I'm definitely on the optimistic side when it comes to his bat, and I see it as potentially even a second round profile if he can stick at shortstop. As with most high schoolers, signability clouds his likely draft range, but most teams probably see him as a third to fourth round talent. If he chooses to head to Arizona, three years of production in the Pac 12 could make him a high pick in 2023.
Hitting and fielding over the summer
2020 Draft Profile: Cade Horton
RHP/SS Cade Horton, Norman HS [OK]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/20/2001. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Oklahoma.
Few players in this year's draft class have more options ahead of them than Cade Horton. A standout two-way player, he's a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, drawing significant interest for both his bat and his arm. As a high schooler, he also has the option to spurn going pro and head across town to the University of Oklahoma, where he'll not only get the chance to play both ways on the Sooners baseball team, but try out for quarterback as well. The last time a pro baseball prospect got to go play quarterback at Oklahoma, Kyler Murray was drafted ninth overall by the Oakland A's and first overall by the Arizona Cardinals, though Horton isn't quite in that prospect tier.
Personally, I prefer Horton a little bit as a pitcher. His power right arm, which landed him the chance to play quarterback for that powerhouse Oklahoma Sooner program, can pump fastballs into the mid 90's and typically sits in the low 90's. He brings a good slider with solid spin and two-plane break, which could be a very good pitch if he adds some power to it. There's also a changeup there, one which can look good at its best. His command is about where it should be for a player his age, and with a durable 6'2" frame, he has what it takes to start. However, probably owing to his split focus between hitting, pitching, and quarterbacking, he isn't the most consistent on the mound, and his velocity in particular has a tendency to dip a bit as he wears out.
As a hitter, he's power over hit, generating above average raw power from the right side. However, his bat path isn't the most efficient in somewhat of a long to it, short through it fashion. That can have a two-fold effect in limiting his power during games as well as causing swing and miss issues, so he'd need to have some significant mechanical cleanup to succeed as a hitter in pro ball. With his natural athleticism and the quickness in his hands, he does have pretty good upside there. That offensive upside looks better when you pair it with his defense, with the chance to stick at shortstop despite average speed. Moving to third base would put more pressure on his bat, but his offensive upside does profile well there if he can reach it.
Regardless of whether Horton ends up a hitter or a pitcher down the road (assuming he does not end up a quarterback), focusing on one thing should do wonders for him. The natural athleticism is clearly there and he has quite a few building blocks on both sides of the ball, perhaps a few more on the mound, though he's clearly raw in his all-around game. Horton is also a little old for the class with an August birthday, which can tend to matter in the eyes of evaluators. He'll probably be a very tough sign, so projecting his draft position is probably useless. He has the talent to go as high as the second round, though a high asking price could either push him lower in the draft or, more likely, out of the draft entirely. Three years of refinement at Oklahoma could do him wonders and he could follow another two-way Oklahoma prep prospect and current Sooner Cade Cavalli to first round discussions three years from now. Or he could follow Kyler Murray to the NFL, but that one requires a bit more optimism because he isn't quite the football prospect Murray was in high school.
Pitching summer of 2018
Hitting and pitching, summer of 2019
Hitting summer of 2019
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/20/2001. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Oklahoma.
Few players in this year's draft class have more options ahead of them than Cade Horton. A standout two-way player, he's a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, drawing significant interest for both his bat and his arm. As a high schooler, he also has the option to spurn going pro and head across town to the University of Oklahoma, where he'll not only get the chance to play both ways on the Sooners baseball team, but try out for quarterback as well. The last time a pro baseball prospect got to go play quarterback at Oklahoma, Kyler Murray was drafted ninth overall by the Oakland A's and first overall by the Arizona Cardinals, though Horton isn't quite in that prospect tier.
Personally, I prefer Horton a little bit as a pitcher. His power right arm, which landed him the chance to play quarterback for that powerhouse Oklahoma Sooner program, can pump fastballs into the mid 90's and typically sits in the low 90's. He brings a good slider with solid spin and two-plane break, which could be a very good pitch if he adds some power to it. There's also a changeup there, one which can look good at its best. His command is about where it should be for a player his age, and with a durable 6'2" frame, he has what it takes to start. However, probably owing to his split focus between hitting, pitching, and quarterbacking, he isn't the most consistent on the mound, and his velocity in particular has a tendency to dip a bit as he wears out.
As a hitter, he's power over hit, generating above average raw power from the right side. However, his bat path isn't the most efficient in somewhat of a long to it, short through it fashion. That can have a two-fold effect in limiting his power during games as well as causing swing and miss issues, so he'd need to have some significant mechanical cleanup to succeed as a hitter in pro ball. With his natural athleticism and the quickness in his hands, he does have pretty good upside there. That offensive upside looks better when you pair it with his defense, with the chance to stick at shortstop despite average speed. Moving to third base would put more pressure on his bat, but his offensive upside does profile well there if he can reach it.
Regardless of whether Horton ends up a hitter or a pitcher down the road (assuming he does not end up a quarterback), focusing on one thing should do wonders for him. The natural athleticism is clearly there and he has quite a few building blocks on both sides of the ball, perhaps a few more on the mound, though he's clearly raw in his all-around game. Horton is also a little old for the class with an August birthday, which can tend to matter in the eyes of evaluators. He'll probably be a very tough sign, so projecting his draft position is probably useless. He has the talent to go as high as the second round, though a high asking price could either push him lower in the draft or, more likely, out of the draft entirely. Three years of refinement at Oklahoma could do him wonders and he could follow another two-way Oklahoma prep prospect and current Sooner Cade Cavalli to first round discussions three years from now. Or he could follow Kyler Murray to the NFL, but that one requires a bit more optimism because he isn't quite the football prospect Murray was in high school.
Pitching summer of 2018
Hitting and pitching, summer of 2019
Hitting summer of 2019
Friday, May 22, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Tommy Mace
RHP Tommy Mace, Florida
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 11/11/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26/5 K/BB in 27 IP
Tommy Mace is an interesting prospect with a combination of track record and projectability. He was a rail-thin, 6'6" prep arm coming out of Sunlake High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, and the immense projectability in his frame led to some top five round conversations. However, his high asking price sent him north to Gainesville, and three years later, he remains somewhat of a similar prospect. Jumping into the rotation as a sophomore in 2019, he put up a 5.32 ERA and a 74/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings against Florida's tough SEC schedule, showing durability and a solid baseline of stuff but also that he wasn't quite there yet. The results were much better against Florida's non-conference schedule in 2020, with a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 27 innings (including a very strong start against a very strong Miami lineup), but scouts are still waiting on the stuff to leap forward and he remains a fairly divisive prospect.
Coming out of high school, evaluators excitedly projected velocity gains on Mace's low 90's fastball. Three years later, he has been able to run it up to 96 at times, but it's still in that same low 90's range more often than not. He throws a pretty good cutter/slider that keeps hitters off his fastball and can function as his out pitch, and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. His command is generally pretty good, something you definitely like to see from someone that tall, and it has helped him be generally successful in the SEC.
Mace offers an interesting conundrum as a very atypical projection arm. Most other projection guys that he will be compared to are high schoolers that are three years younger, but Mace's extra experience also gives him a bit of a track record to run on. There's still hope that he could add a tick or two to his fastball since he doesn't turn 22 until the offseason, but you could much more easily bet on an 18 year old to do the same thing. Scouts are on one hand pleased with his strike throwing and the numbers he put up in 2020, but on the other hand a bit frustrated that his stuff remains average as a whole.
I think he's shifted away from a boom/bust profile and settled more in the middle, looking like a back-end starter if he can make a couple of incremental improvements in his offspeed stuff. As a reliever, he could conceivably take a step forward and utilize a mid 90's fastball/hard cutter combination, which lowers some of the risk here. He probably fits in the second or third round come draft day.
2020 start vs Miami
2019 start vs Mississippi State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 11/11/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26/5 K/BB in 27 IP
Tommy Mace is an interesting prospect with a combination of track record and projectability. He was a rail-thin, 6'6" prep arm coming out of Sunlake High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, and the immense projectability in his frame led to some top five round conversations. However, his high asking price sent him north to Gainesville, and three years later, he remains somewhat of a similar prospect. Jumping into the rotation as a sophomore in 2019, he put up a 5.32 ERA and a 74/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings against Florida's tough SEC schedule, showing durability and a solid baseline of stuff but also that he wasn't quite there yet. The results were much better against Florida's non-conference schedule in 2020, with a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 27 innings (including a very strong start against a very strong Miami lineup), but scouts are still waiting on the stuff to leap forward and he remains a fairly divisive prospect.
Coming out of high school, evaluators excitedly projected velocity gains on Mace's low 90's fastball. Three years later, he has been able to run it up to 96 at times, but it's still in that same low 90's range more often than not. He throws a pretty good cutter/slider that keeps hitters off his fastball and can function as his out pitch, and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. His command is generally pretty good, something you definitely like to see from someone that tall, and it has helped him be generally successful in the SEC.
Mace offers an interesting conundrum as a very atypical projection arm. Most other projection guys that he will be compared to are high schoolers that are three years younger, but Mace's extra experience also gives him a bit of a track record to run on. There's still hope that he could add a tick or two to his fastball since he doesn't turn 22 until the offseason, but you could much more easily bet on an 18 year old to do the same thing. Scouts are on one hand pleased with his strike throwing and the numbers he put up in 2020, but on the other hand a bit frustrated that his stuff remains average as a whole.
I think he's shifted away from a boom/bust profile and settled more in the middle, looking like a back-end starter if he can make a couple of incremental improvements in his offspeed stuff. As a reliever, he could conceivably take a step forward and utilize a mid 90's fastball/hard cutter combination, which lowers some of the risk here. He probably fits in the second or third round come draft day.
2020 start vs Miami
2019 start vs Mississippi State
2020 Draft Profile: Justin Lange
RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS [TX]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/11/2001. Commitment: Dallas Baptist.
Deep in the heart of Central Texas, the small town of Llano (population 3,232 and pronounced LAN-oh) is known around the state as the home of Cooper's Old Time Pit Bar-B-Que, but naturally it hasn't produced many professional sports prospects. Justin Lange is changing that in a big way with a fastball that rivals the other small town Texan right hander in this class, Refugio's (population 2,890) Jared Kelley. Down in South Texas, Kelley has a strong argument as the top high school pitcher in the class, but he's significantly more refined than Lange, who might need more development than any other high school pitcher drafted this year.
Lange actually isn't too dissimilar to the last profile in this series, Miami Christian High's Alejandro Rosario, in that his best asset by far is his big fastball. Lange has always been about projection, but with a fastball that sat around 90 over the summer, he wasn't much of a prospect until very recently. His velocity started ticking up in the fall, then he came out of the gate in the spring sitting in the mid to upper 90's and touching 100, vaulting himself up prospect lists. Lange produces this velocity with relative ease, unfurling his extremely projectable 6'4" frame to fling the ball forward with a very natural, athletic delivery.
Now, I say "fling" because that's probably the most accurate word, certainly more so than "pitch." Lange has virtually no command of the pitch, more just letting it fly at incredible speeds in the general direction of the plate. He will need significant, significant refinement in that area, learning to control his body and pitch with intention against more advanced hitters. The fastball is already such a tremendous pitch, with great riding life in addition to its velocity, that he'll probably never need pinpoint command to be successful, but he will need to locate regardless. His breaking ball is also a work in progress, a mid to upper 80's slider that stands out much more for its velocity than its life. If he wants any chance to start, that pitch is going to need to leap forward at least a full grade, perhaps more. He'll also need to add a changeup, something he hasn't done much to this point.
For all of his rough edges, there is reason to believe Lange can figure it out. For one, the nuances of the game are often coachable, but you can't teach someone to throw 100. Additionally, coming from a very rural area about an hour and a half northwest of Austin, Lange hasn't had as many of the same opportunities to work out in those expensive training facilities you get in the suburbs, so pro coaching could do him wonders. Even though he doesn't offer much aside from velocity at this point, he looks so natural on the mound that you have to be excited about his upside. I haven't heard anything about him being a particularly tough sign, and his talent likely puts him somewhere in the second round range, perhaps to a team with multiple early picks who can absorb some of the risk. The upside here is about as high as you can imagine, while the risk is about that high as well.
Pitching in the fall
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/11/2001. Commitment: Dallas Baptist.
Deep in the heart of Central Texas, the small town of Llano (population 3,232 and pronounced LAN-oh) is known around the state as the home of Cooper's Old Time Pit Bar-B-Que, but naturally it hasn't produced many professional sports prospects. Justin Lange is changing that in a big way with a fastball that rivals the other small town Texan right hander in this class, Refugio's (population 2,890) Jared Kelley. Down in South Texas, Kelley has a strong argument as the top high school pitcher in the class, but he's significantly more refined than Lange, who might need more development than any other high school pitcher drafted this year.
Lange actually isn't too dissimilar to the last profile in this series, Miami Christian High's Alejandro Rosario, in that his best asset by far is his big fastball. Lange has always been about projection, but with a fastball that sat around 90 over the summer, he wasn't much of a prospect until very recently. His velocity started ticking up in the fall, then he came out of the gate in the spring sitting in the mid to upper 90's and touching 100, vaulting himself up prospect lists. Lange produces this velocity with relative ease, unfurling his extremely projectable 6'4" frame to fling the ball forward with a very natural, athletic delivery.
Now, I say "fling" because that's probably the most accurate word, certainly more so than "pitch." Lange has virtually no command of the pitch, more just letting it fly at incredible speeds in the general direction of the plate. He will need significant, significant refinement in that area, learning to control his body and pitch with intention against more advanced hitters. The fastball is already such a tremendous pitch, with great riding life in addition to its velocity, that he'll probably never need pinpoint command to be successful, but he will need to locate regardless. His breaking ball is also a work in progress, a mid to upper 80's slider that stands out much more for its velocity than its life. If he wants any chance to start, that pitch is going to need to leap forward at least a full grade, perhaps more. He'll also need to add a changeup, something he hasn't done much to this point.
For all of his rough edges, there is reason to believe Lange can figure it out. For one, the nuances of the game are often coachable, but you can't teach someone to throw 100. Additionally, coming from a very rural area about an hour and a half northwest of Austin, Lange hasn't had as many of the same opportunities to work out in those expensive training facilities you get in the suburbs, so pro coaching could do him wonders. Even though he doesn't offer much aside from velocity at this point, he looks so natural on the mound that you have to be excited about his upside. I haven't heard anything about him being a particularly tough sign, and his talent likely puts him somewhere in the second round range, perhaps to a team with multiple early picks who can absorb some of the risk. The upside here is about as high as you can imagine, while the risk is about that high as well.
Pitching in the fall
Thursday, May 21, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Alejandro Rosario
RHP Alejandro Rosario, Miami Christian HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/6/2002. Commitment: Miami.
There is a deep group of high school prospects in South Florida this year, and Miami Christian High School's Alejandro Rosario is among the best. He's certainly not the most polished arm in the area, but few can match his upside. Rosario, as with quite a few other reclassifying prep players like Nick Bitsko, David Calabrese, Blaze Jordan, and Owen Caissie, was originally a member of the 2021 class, but he would have been almost 19 and a half on draft day and is much more age-appropriate for the 2020 class. Because the gap between his present ability and future projection is so wide, he's certain to be a divisive prospect on draft day, but enough teams should be interested that he'll get plenty of buzz.
Rosario's prime asset is a mid 90's fastball that can scrape the upper 90's fairly consistently. Though he's on the smaller side at 6'1" and pretty skinny at that, his delivery and arm action are loose, allowing him to sit comfortably around 94-95 without overthrowing. However, the rest of his game needs considerable refinement. The fastball itself is pretty straight, something that tends to come into play against more advanced competition. As for offspeed pitches, he throws a slider and a splitter, with both looking good at times but often running into each other. The splitter is probably the better pitch, coming in with downward bite and looking like one of the better changeups in the high school class when it's at its best. He needs to work on differentiating that slider away from the splitter, with his overall feel for spinning the ball in need of significant refinement.
Rosario throws strikes and has decent enough control, but his command (ability to hit spots) does need some work as well. Between his size, lack of refined offspeed pitches, and raw command, there is significant bullpen risk here, but his velocity, the looseness in his delivery, and competitive nature do give him a lot to work with. Teams willing to put the time in to work with Rosario could benefit greatly. The Miami Hurricanes would also love to get their hands on arguably their top recruit (though Victor Mederos has a strong case as well), and in a draft class where teams are valuing safety and track record, signability could come into play if he starts to slip. If he can learn to manipulate his offspeed pitches a little better and make similar, even incremental strides with his command, he could dominate the ACC and become a first round pick in 2023.
Pitching over the summer
More summer pitching
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/6/2002. Commitment: Miami.
There is a deep group of high school prospects in South Florida this year, and Miami Christian High School's Alejandro Rosario is among the best. He's certainly not the most polished arm in the area, but few can match his upside. Rosario, as with quite a few other reclassifying prep players like Nick Bitsko, David Calabrese, Blaze Jordan, and Owen Caissie, was originally a member of the 2021 class, but he would have been almost 19 and a half on draft day and is much more age-appropriate for the 2020 class. Because the gap between his present ability and future projection is so wide, he's certain to be a divisive prospect on draft day, but enough teams should be interested that he'll get plenty of buzz.
Rosario's prime asset is a mid 90's fastball that can scrape the upper 90's fairly consistently. Though he's on the smaller side at 6'1" and pretty skinny at that, his delivery and arm action are loose, allowing him to sit comfortably around 94-95 without overthrowing. However, the rest of his game needs considerable refinement. The fastball itself is pretty straight, something that tends to come into play against more advanced competition. As for offspeed pitches, he throws a slider and a splitter, with both looking good at times but often running into each other. The splitter is probably the better pitch, coming in with downward bite and looking like one of the better changeups in the high school class when it's at its best. He needs to work on differentiating that slider away from the splitter, with his overall feel for spinning the ball in need of significant refinement.
Rosario throws strikes and has decent enough control, but his command (ability to hit spots) does need some work as well. Between his size, lack of refined offspeed pitches, and raw command, there is significant bullpen risk here, but his velocity, the looseness in his delivery, and competitive nature do give him a lot to work with. Teams willing to put the time in to work with Rosario could benefit greatly. The Miami Hurricanes would also love to get their hands on arguably their top recruit (though Victor Mederos has a strong case as well), and in a draft class where teams are valuing safety and track record, signability could come into play if he starts to slip. If he can learn to manipulate his offspeed pitches a little better and make similar, even incremental strides with his command, he could dominate the ACC and become a first round pick in 2023.
Pitching over the summer
More summer pitching
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Kyle Harrison
LHP Kyle Harrison, De La Salle HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/12/2001. Commitment: UCLA.
De La Salle High School in the Oakland suburb of Concord, California is most well known for the movie When the Game Stands Tall, which depicted its football team's 151 game winning streak from 1992-2004. This year, their baseball team boasts one of the best high school lefthanders in the country in a relatively shallow draft for that demographic. Dax Fulton, who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, is probably the best prospect in the group when healthy, though Harrison is right behind him and is ready to go right now. That could lead to him being the first high school lefty selected this June.
Unlike some of the power arms in this class, Harrison is one where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 94 occasionally, not overwhelming velocity but definitely enough given the rest of his skill set. His best secondary pitch is his frisbee slider, a big bender with excellent shape but which can soften up at times. Lastly, he throws a decent changeup that isn't much of a weapon yet, but he has shown good feel for pitching and that should help him develop it in the future.
Everything in Harrison's arsenal plays up for a couple of reasons. One is his command, which is above average, especially for a high schooler. Once he adds some power to his slider, the two pitches could tunnel really well off each other. The other is his delivery, which enables him to hide the ball extremely well, something that goes a long way against more advanced hitters. He stands 6'2" and while he's not the most projectable pitcher in the class, there is the potential for him to get stronger as he gets older, which bodes well for both his fastball velocity and that slider.
Harrison is slightly old for the class, turning 19 in August, but he's already pretty advanced so that shouldn't be much of a factor. Nothing stands out in his profile, but he has a little of everything going for him and he could be an impact starting pitcher in time. He's probably a second or third round talent, but he could go earlier if a team that likes his combination of youth and handedness (not many can match that in this draft) or later if his asking price away from UCLA gets too high.
Pitching over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/12/2001. Commitment: UCLA.
De La Salle High School in the Oakland suburb of Concord, California is most well known for the movie When the Game Stands Tall, which depicted its football team's 151 game winning streak from 1992-2004. This year, their baseball team boasts one of the best high school lefthanders in the country in a relatively shallow draft for that demographic. Dax Fulton, who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, is probably the best prospect in the group when healthy, though Harrison is right behind him and is ready to go right now. That could lead to him being the first high school lefty selected this June.
Unlike some of the power arms in this class, Harrison is one where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 94 occasionally, not overwhelming velocity but definitely enough given the rest of his skill set. His best secondary pitch is his frisbee slider, a big bender with excellent shape but which can soften up at times. Lastly, he throws a decent changeup that isn't much of a weapon yet, but he has shown good feel for pitching and that should help him develop it in the future.
Everything in Harrison's arsenal plays up for a couple of reasons. One is his command, which is above average, especially for a high schooler. Once he adds some power to his slider, the two pitches could tunnel really well off each other. The other is his delivery, which enables him to hide the ball extremely well, something that goes a long way against more advanced hitters. He stands 6'2" and while he's not the most projectable pitcher in the class, there is the potential for him to get stronger as he gets older, which bodes well for both his fastball velocity and that slider.
Harrison is slightly old for the class, turning 19 in August, but he's already pretty advanced so that shouldn't be much of a factor. Nothing stands out in his profile, but he has a little of everything going for him and he could be an impact starting pitcher in time. He's probably a second or third round talent, but he could go earlier if a team that likes his combination of youth and handedness (not many can match that in this draft) or later if his asking price away from UCLA gets too high.
Pitching over the summer
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Chase Davis
OF Chase Davis, Franklin HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/5/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Arizona.
Chase Davis is yet another outfielder from a strong California high school crop, coming from Franklin High School in the Sacramento area. One of the best athletes in the class, it's a lot of fun to watch Davis play, and at his best he can look like a first round pick. He was trending up over the summer as he improved his hit tool, and while a relatively slow start to the season slowed that progress a little, it wasn't nearly enough to erase it and he remains one of the most dynamic high schoolers in the class.
The first thing that stands out about Davis is his athleticism. Well-known to be a gym rat, he's an explosive athlete whose strength translates well onto the baseball field. He has extremely quick hands that he channels into explosive bat speed, which in turn enables him to show plus raw power when he gets into one. However, he has some extreme pre-swing bat wrap in which the end of the bat curls behind his head and points almost towards the pitcher, making his swing significantly longer than it needs to be. This in turn has caused his hit tool to play down perhaps a half grade or more from where it should be, and it could also be reason to envision an even higher ceiling.
Davis is a streaky hitter, but at times he has shown the ability to consistently square up high velocity and put a charge into the ball. If he can eliminate that bat wrap, his hands are so quick and he does such a good job of generating leverage that he could end up with an above average hit tool when all is said and done. Combine that with plus power, and you have a real impact hitter. In addition to his bat, Davis is a good runner with above average speed, and he could be a great defender in right field with an exceptional arm.
There is great upside value here, as Davis' realistic ceiling has him hitting 30+ home runs annually with decent on-base percentages, some speed, and good defense in right field. However, his relatively slow start to the season could scare some more risk-averse teams off, as many are valuing track record right now and Davis' is naturally short as a high schooler as well as a bit uneven. He could have a wide draft range, anywhere from the early second round if he's signable and a team buys into the upside, to the late third if teams are feeling particularly risk-averse, to not at all if his asking price gets too high away from his Arizona commitment.
BP, fielding, and game action over the summer
More hitting over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/5/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Arizona.
Chase Davis is yet another outfielder from a strong California high school crop, coming from Franklin High School in the Sacramento area. One of the best athletes in the class, it's a lot of fun to watch Davis play, and at his best he can look like a first round pick. He was trending up over the summer as he improved his hit tool, and while a relatively slow start to the season slowed that progress a little, it wasn't nearly enough to erase it and he remains one of the most dynamic high schoolers in the class.
The first thing that stands out about Davis is his athleticism. Well-known to be a gym rat, he's an explosive athlete whose strength translates well onto the baseball field. He has extremely quick hands that he channels into explosive bat speed, which in turn enables him to show plus raw power when he gets into one. However, he has some extreme pre-swing bat wrap in which the end of the bat curls behind his head and points almost towards the pitcher, making his swing significantly longer than it needs to be. This in turn has caused his hit tool to play down perhaps a half grade or more from where it should be, and it could also be reason to envision an even higher ceiling.
Davis is a streaky hitter, but at times he has shown the ability to consistently square up high velocity and put a charge into the ball. If he can eliminate that bat wrap, his hands are so quick and he does such a good job of generating leverage that he could end up with an above average hit tool when all is said and done. Combine that with plus power, and you have a real impact hitter. In addition to his bat, Davis is a good runner with above average speed, and he could be a great defender in right field with an exceptional arm.
There is great upside value here, as Davis' realistic ceiling has him hitting 30+ home runs annually with decent on-base percentages, some speed, and good defense in right field. However, his relatively slow start to the season could scare some more risk-averse teams off, as many are valuing track record right now and Davis' is naturally short as a high schooler as well as a bit uneven. He could have a wide draft range, anywhere from the early second round if he's signable and a team buys into the upside, to the late third if teams are feeling particularly risk-averse, to not at all if his asking price gets too high away from his Arizona commitment.
BP, fielding, and game action over the summer
More hitting over the summer
Monday, May 18, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Colt Keith
SS/RHP Colt Keith, Biloxi HS [MS]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/14/2001. B/T: L/R
Commitment: Arizona State.
Keith is part of a relatively strong class of high school two-way players, though I personally prefer his bat over his arm by a wide margin. I actually didn't like him much as a prospect when I originally researched him as a pitcher, originally ranking him outside the top 100, but when I came back to study him as a hitter, I liked his offensive profile more and more. Mississippi's top high school prospect (at least in my opinion, ahead of power hitters Blaze Jordan and Slade Wilks) has the scouting industry generally split on where he'll play in the future, probably leaning a bit towards hitting, where his upside is especially exciting.
As I said previously, I prefer Keith as a hitter. His swing can get a bit choppy and he doesn't always get a ton of extension, but his quick hands and the natural leverage he creates with his 6'3" frame helps him produce good raw power anyways. He has a good enough approach at the plate to make the most out of that power as well, not showing as much swing and miss as some of the other power bats in this class. With some mechanical changes, I think he could take off at the plate. He also provides value defensively, his speed and arm strength giving him a chance to stick at shortstop, though he would also be a good third baseman if he were to move over there.
On the mound, he's a bit more of a projection arm. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a nice two-plane curveball with good shape, though he needs to add power to the pitch and develop a changeup. There is some crossfire in his delivery which, combined with good extension, can make his pitches play up. The strike throwing ability is there, though he's not a true command artist. If he can sharpen up that curveball and add a changeup, he'll be a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but in my opinion he has more work to do on the mound to get to where he is as a hitter.
Keith is relatively old for his class, turning 19 in August, though ditching the mound or the bat could help him improve quickly with the other. I see a 20-25 home run bat, perhaps up to 30, that will post decent on-base percentages in addition to a few stolen bases and positive defensive value. He could go to Arizona State and sort himself out, as he still does need a fair amount of refinement in his offensive game, and return for the 2023 draft a first round pick. In 2020, if he's signable, he projects somewhere in the second or third round, though I'd put his talent more cleanly in the second.
Hitting over the summer
Pitching over the summer
Some summer batting practice
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/14/2001. B/T: L/R
Commitment: Arizona State.
Keith is part of a relatively strong class of high school two-way players, though I personally prefer his bat over his arm by a wide margin. I actually didn't like him much as a prospect when I originally researched him as a pitcher, originally ranking him outside the top 100, but when I came back to study him as a hitter, I liked his offensive profile more and more. Mississippi's top high school prospect (at least in my opinion, ahead of power hitters Blaze Jordan and Slade Wilks) has the scouting industry generally split on where he'll play in the future, probably leaning a bit towards hitting, where his upside is especially exciting.
As I said previously, I prefer Keith as a hitter. His swing can get a bit choppy and he doesn't always get a ton of extension, but his quick hands and the natural leverage he creates with his 6'3" frame helps him produce good raw power anyways. He has a good enough approach at the plate to make the most out of that power as well, not showing as much swing and miss as some of the other power bats in this class. With some mechanical changes, I think he could take off at the plate. He also provides value defensively, his speed and arm strength giving him a chance to stick at shortstop, though he would also be a good third baseman if he were to move over there.
On the mound, he's a bit more of a projection arm. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a nice two-plane curveball with good shape, though he needs to add power to the pitch and develop a changeup. There is some crossfire in his delivery which, combined with good extension, can make his pitches play up. The strike throwing ability is there, though he's not a true command artist. If he can sharpen up that curveball and add a changeup, he'll be a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but in my opinion he has more work to do on the mound to get to where he is as a hitter.
Keith is relatively old for his class, turning 19 in August, though ditching the mound or the bat could help him improve quickly with the other. I see a 20-25 home run bat, perhaps up to 30, that will post decent on-base percentages in addition to a few stolen bases and positive defensive value. He could go to Arizona State and sort himself out, as he still does need a fair amount of refinement in his offensive game, and return for the 2023 draft a first round pick. In 2020, if he's signable, he projects somewhere in the second or third round, though I'd put his talent more cleanly in the second.
Hitting over the summer
Pitching over the summer
Some summer batting practice
Sunday, May 17, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Ben Hernandez
RHP Ben Hernandez, De La Salle Institute [IL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/1/2001. Commitment: Illinois-Chicago
The top high school arm in the Midwest, just like the top bat in the Midwest (Ed Howard), comes to us from Chicago. In fact, Howard and Hernandez go to school less than five miles apart on the South Side, with Hernandez's De La Salle Institute sitting just a couple of blocks from Guaranteed Rate Field, home of the White Sox. Hernandez is perhaps most well-known for possessing the best changeup in the high school class, using it to complement a well-rounded profile that makes him a favorite among scouts.
Hernandez, who stands 6'2", throws an exceptional changeup in the low to mid 80's that just fades and fades to his arm side. It's the best changeup in the high school class, and it's enough to consistently miss bats on its own without being set up by his other offerings. He also sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which can really jump on hitters because he doesn't throw it with much effort. The fastball and the changeup tunnel really well off each other because of his solid command. At this point, the biggest piece of development for Hernandez is definitely the breaking ball. His curveball is alright, getting good top to bottom shape at times, but it lacks any real power and at this point it isn't really the putaway pitch that he'll need to be an impact starter at the next level.
Between the fastball and the changeup, Hernandez has the two pitch mix, plus the command, to succeed at the lower levels of the minors. When it comes to high school pitchers, you always expect something to be less than perfect, but that's also what makes high school arms (especially high school righties) such risky picks. If a pro team can sharpen that breaking ball to even an average pitch, then you have a legitimate prospect. Even without that breaking ball, he still has enough other starters' traits to potentially succeed in a #4/#5 role. One thing to keep in mind is age, as he will turn 19 in July and is older than most other high schoolers.
I don't know anything about how firm his commitment is to the University of Illinois-Chicago, but I imagine it's perhaps not as firm as some of these other commitments to schools like Vanderbilt, Texas, or Florida State (though UIC did give us Curtis Granderson in 2002). On talent alone, he fits as a second or third round pick with that fastball, changeup, and command. Some teams are bound to like him a lot better than others, so whichever team ends up with him will undoubtedly be very excited about the pick whether that's in the second round, third round, or later.
Throwing indoors in 2020
Summer showcase action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/1/2001. Commitment: Illinois-Chicago
The top high school arm in the Midwest, just like the top bat in the Midwest (Ed Howard), comes to us from Chicago. In fact, Howard and Hernandez go to school less than five miles apart on the South Side, with Hernandez's De La Salle Institute sitting just a couple of blocks from Guaranteed Rate Field, home of the White Sox. Hernandez is perhaps most well-known for possessing the best changeup in the high school class, using it to complement a well-rounded profile that makes him a favorite among scouts.
Hernandez, who stands 6'2", throws an exceptional changeup in the low to mid 80's that just fades and fades to his arm side. It's the best changeup in the high school class, and it's enough to consistently miss bats on its own without being set up by his other offerings. He also sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which can really jump on hitters because he doesn't throw it with much effort. The fastball and the changeup tunnel really well off each other because of his solid command. At this point, the biggest piece of development for Hernandez is definitely the breaking ball. His curveball is alright, getting good top to bottom shape at times, but it lacks any real power and at this point it isn't really the putaway pitch that he'll need to be an impact starter at the next level.
Between the fastball and the changeup, Hernandez has the two pitch mix, plus the command, to succeed at the lower levels of the minors. When it comes to high school pitchers, you always expect something to be less than perfect, but that's also what makes high school arms (especially high school righties) such risky picks. If a pro team can sharpen that breaking ball to even an average pitch, then you have a legitimate prospect. Even without that breaking ball, he still has enough other starters' traits to potentially succeed in a #4/#5 role. One thing to keep in mind is age, as he will turn 19 in July and is older than most other high schoolers.
I don't know anything about how firm his commitment is to the University of Illinois-Chicago, but I imagine it's perhaps not as firm as some of these other commitments to schools like Vanderbilt, Texas, or Florida State (though UIC did give us Curtis Granderson in 2002). On talent alone, he fits as a second or third round pick with that fastball, changeup, and command. Some teams are bound to like him a lot better than others, so whichever team ends up with him will undoubtedly be very excited about the pick whether that's in the second round, third round, or later.
Throwing indoors in 2020
Summer showcase action
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Garcia
RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 4-1, 2.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 36/7 K/BB in 27 IP
Nick Garcia might be the only player on this list whose high school is more famous than his college. A graduate of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo, California, his fellow alumni include Tom Brady, Barry Bonds, NFL Hall of Famer Lynn Swann, and more recently, 2019 Giants first rounder Hunter Bishop. Not widely scouted back then, Garcia ended up at Division III Chapman University in the shadows of Angel Stadium, originally playing third base. After he hit just .268/.326/.293 as a freshman in 2018, the Panthers moved him to the mound, where he found immediate success; as a sophomore in 2019, Garcia put up a 0.64 ERA and an 82/14 strikeout to walk ratio across 56 innings out of the bullpen, earning a trip to the elite Cape Cod League. He opened a lot of eyes up there with a 3.17 ERA and a 20/11 strikeout to walk ratio across 17 innings, and then his stock leapt forward yet again in 2020 with a successful transition to the rotation: 2.00 ERA, 36/7 K/BB in 27 innings.
Over the course of barely a year, Garcia went from completely off the map to a top prospect for the 2020 draft. Listed at 6'4", Garcia's best attribute is his low to mid 90's fastball, which can have good running action and which has hit 98 before. Though he's a fresh arm, he's not just a pure power pitcher, adding in a slider and a cutter. The slider has deeper, two-plane tilt, while the cutter comes in with more velocity and consistently misses barrels. He doesn't have much of a changeup, but then again, he only started pitching as a sophomore and only began starting as a junior. The control (ability to throw strikes) is well ahead of the command (ability to spot pitches), but again, he hasn't been pitching for that long.
With an ideal pitcher's frame, three good pitches, and now the ability to start, Garcia has been trending up quickly. That said, there are a few caveats to his game. While his time on the Cape was overall a success, he did walk 11 in 17 innings in his only action against any kind of advanced hitting, and he's otherwise completely unproven above the Division III level. If he wants to start, he needs to refine his command and his changeup, which should theoretically be more likely given that he's so new to pitching, but theoretically is not a given until it actually happens.
If Garcia develops the way he's projected to, he could be an impact starting pitcher pretty easily. However, the depth of college pitching in this class in addition to this year's emphasis on track record could push him down a bit in the draft. He projects as a second round arm in a normal draft but could fall to the third this year if teams don't think they've seen enough from him as a starter to feel comfortable (he's only started five games, ever). Perhaps helping his case just a little is his April birthday, which isn't crazy young but it makes him nearly nine months younger than a guy like Wake Forest's Jared Shuster, who projects in a similar draft range.
Fall 2019 scrimmage (home plate view)
Same outing from CF view
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 4-1, 2.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 36/7 K/BB in 27 IP
Nick Garcia might be the only player on this list whose high school is more famous than his college. A graduate of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo, California, his fellow alumni include Tom Brady, Barry Bonds, NFL Hall of Famer Lynn Swann, and more recently, 2019 Giants first rounder Hunter Bishop. Not widely scouted back then, Garcia ended up at Division III Chapman University in the shadows of Angel Stadium, originally playing third base. After he hit just .268/.326/.293 as a freshman in 2018, the Panthers moved him to the mound, where he found immediate success; as a sophomore in 2019, Garcia put up a 0.64 ERA and an 82/14 strikeout to walk ratio across 56 innings out of the bullpen, earning a trip to the elite Cape Cod League. He opened a lot of eyes up there with a 3.17 ERA and a 20/11 strikeout to walk ratio across 17 innings, and then his stock leapt forward yet again in 2020 with a successful transition to the rotation: 2.00 ERA, 36/7 K/BB in 27 innings.
Over the course of barely a year, Garcia went from completely off the map to a top prospect for the 2020 draft. Listed at 6'4", Garcia's best attribute is his low to mid 90's fastball, which can have good running action and which has hit 98 before. Though he's a fresh arm, he's not just a pure power pitcher, adding in a slider and a cutter. The slider has deeper, two-plane tilt, while the cutter comes in with more velocity and consistently misses barrels. He doesn't have much of a changeup, but then again, he only started pitching as a sophomore and only began starting as a junior. The control (ability to throw strikes) is well ahead of the command (ability to spot pitches), but again, he hasn't been pitching for that long.
With an ideal pitcher's frame, three good pitches, and now the ability to start, Garcia has been trending up quickly. That said, there are a few caveats to his game. While his time on the Cape was overall a success, he did walk 11 in 17 innings in his only action against any kind of advanced hitting, and he's otherwise completely unproven above the Division III level. If he wants to start, he needs to refine his command and his changeup, which should theoretically be more likely given that he's so new to pitching, but theoretically is not a given until it actually happens.
If Garcia develops the way he's projected to, he could be an impact starting pitcher pretty easily. However, the depth of college pitching in this class in addition to this year's emphasis on track record could push him down a bit in the draft. He projects as a second round arm in a normal draft but could fall to the third this year if teams don't think they've seen enough from him as a starter to feel comfortable (he's only started five games, ever). Perhaps helping his case just a little is his April birthday, which isn't crazy young but it makes him nearly nine months younger than a guy like Wake Forest's Jared Shuster, who projects in a similar draft range.
Fall 2019 scrimmage (home plate view)
Same outing from CF view
Saturday, May 16, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Clayton Beeter
RHP Clayton Beeter, Texas Tech
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.14 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 33/4 K/BB in 21 IP
There were quite a few pitchers who came out of the gate strong in 2020 and pushed their draft stocks up because of it, and Clayton Beeter was certainly one of them. After missing his freshman season with Tommy John surgery, Beeter put up a 3.48 ERA and a 40/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings as a sophomore, flashing good stuff but struggling immensely to find the strike zone. In 2020, he looked like a completely different pitcher, working around a mediocre start against Tennessee to dominate Houston Baptist, Florida Atlantic, and Rice. After walking 21.5% of his opponents in 2019 (20 in 20.2 IP), he slashed that rate all the way down to 4.9% in 2020 (4 in 21 IP), not walking a batter or allowing an earned run over his final two starts.
If 2020 Beeter is the real deal, then he is, for lack of a better term, the real deal. His fastball now sits in the mid 90's and gets as high as 98, and it really looks like it's jumping on you because he comes straight over the top to give it steep downhill plane. He also throws a very good power curveball with 12-6 shape, and his best ones can show great depth down in the zone. He doesn't throw his slider and changeup as much, but both could be good pitches and would give him a great four pitch mix with further refinement. At 6'2", he has a starter's build and has looked great since coming back from Tommy John.
Now let's talk about command. He could barely throw strikes at all in 2019, and then he looked above average in that regard in 2020. A longer season could have really helped him cement his status as a strike thrower, but it also could have hurt him if he regressed against Big 12 competition. Three of his four walks came against Tennessee, the only above average lineup he faced, as did four of his five earned runs on the season. So what will his command look like in pro ball? If he maintains what he showed against weaker lineups, that makes him a pretty complete starting pitching prospect. But if it regresses, he could have to fight for a rotation spot in the minors.
Track record has been stressed over and over for this draft, and that's not something Beeter has much of outside of three really good starts against three mediocre lineups. However, his name has been rising recently and the second round is now looking more like his floor than his ceiling, with some teams in the top 40 or so picks giving him looks. As a redshirt sophomore, Beeter has a little more leverage and could bet on himself and return to Lubbock if he doesn't get the bonus he wants, but that's looking less likely as his name picks up steam.
Pitching in 2020 (CF view)
2020 start vs FAU (home plate view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.14 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 33/4 K/BB in 21 IP
There were quite a few pitchers who came out of the gate strong in 2020 and pushed their draft stocks up because of it, and Clayton Beeter was certainly one of them. After missing his freshman season with Tommy John surgery, Beeter put up a 3.48 ERA and a 40/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings as a sophomore, flashing good stuff but struggling immensely to find the strike zone. In 2020, he looked like a completely different pitcher, working around a mediocre start against Tennessee to dominate Houston Baptist, Florida Atlantic, and Rice. After walking 21.5% of his opponents in 2019 (20 in 20.2 IP), he slashed that rate all the way down to 4.9% in 2020 (4 in 21 IP), not walking a batter or allowing an earned run over his final two starts.
If 2020 Beeter is the real deal, then he is, for lack of a better term, the real deal. His fastball now sits in the mid 90's and gets as high as 98, and it really looks like it's jumping on you because he comes straight over the top to give it steep downhill plane. He also throws a very good power curveball with 12-6 shape, and his best ones can show great depth down in the zone. He doesn't throw his slider and changeup as much, but both could be good pitches and would give him a great four pitch mix with further refinement. At 6'2", he has a starter's build and has looked great since coming back from Tommy John.
Now let's talk about command. He could barely throw strikes at all in 2019, and then he looked above average in that regard in 2020. A longer season could have really helped him cement his status as a strike thrower, but it also could have hurt him if he regressed against Big 12 competition. Three of his four walks came against Tennessee, the only above average lineup he faced, as did four of his five earned runs on the season. So what will his command look like in pro ball? If he maintains what he showed against weaker lineups, that makes him a pretty complete starting pitching prospect. But if it regresses, he could have to fight for a rotation spot in the minors.
Track record has been stressed over and over for this draft, and that's not something Beeter has much of outside of three really good starts against three mediocre lineups. However, his name has been rising recently and the second round is now looking more like his floor than his ceiling, with some teams in the top 40 or so picks giving him looks. As a redshirt sophomore, Beeter has a little more leverage and could bet on himself and return to Lubbock if he doesn't get the bonus he wants, but that's looking less likely as his name picks up steam.
Pitching in 2020 (CF view)
2020 start vs FAU (home plate view)
2020 Draft Profile: David Calabrese
OF David Calabrese, St. Elizabeth HS [ON]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/26/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Arkansas.
David Calabrese and fellow Toronto-area outfielder Owen Caissie have established themselves as the top two Canadian prospects in the draft this year, and in my opinion, Calabrese takes the top spot. Originally a member of the 2021 class, he joined Nick Bitsko, Alejandro Rosario, Blaze Jordan, Owen Caissie, and others in reclassifying up to the 2020 class and is one of the youngest players available. Though he stands out for his speed, he's a better hitter than last year's top Canadian prospect, fellow speedster Dasan Brown, and his well-rounded profile makes him a favorite among scouts.
Calabrese is a bit undersized as a skinny sub-six footer, but he also won't turn 18 until September, giving him plenty of time to grow and add muscle. He has a loose swing from the left side with a slight uppercut, one that has enabled him to make very consistent contact throughout his amateur career. Though he'll never be a power hitter, the looseness in his swing combined with his athleticism and hopefully more physical development helps him project to be much more than just a slap hitter. He already shows a penchant for driving the ball to the gaps, and with his plus-plus speed, he should be a threat for plenty of doubles and triples at the next level. Defensively, that excellent speed also helps him in center field, where he needs some further refinement but has the potential to be a very good defender.
Partially owing to the fact that he's just so young, there are a lot of different directions Calabrese could develop. If he tacks on some more muscle as he finishes off his teenage years, he could find himself a 15-20 home run hitter at the big league level. Even if he more or less stays the same, there is the projection for a 5-15 home run hitter with lots of doubles and triples to supplement his slugging percentage, and he makes enough contact to profile for solid on-base percentages as well. Combine that with plenty of stolen bases and potentially great defense in center field, and it's a really well-rounded projection. However, because he's just 17 and hasn't seen a ton of high-level competition, he comes with some risk and the shortened season probably hurts him a lot more than it helps him. On talent alone, he fits in the second or third round, but he may choose to join Arkansas' incredibly talented recruiting class (which also includes big name draft prospects Masyn Winn, Markevian Hence, Cayden Wallace, and Nick Griffin) and that would complicate things considerably.
Hitting and fielding in 2020
2019 batting practice
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/26/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Arkansas.
David Calabrese and fellow Toronto-area outfielder Owen Caissie have established themselves as the top two Canadian prospects in the draft this year, and in my opinion, Calabrese takes the top spot. Originally a member of the 2021 class, he joined Nick Bitsko, Alejandro Rosario, Blaze Jordan, Owen Caissie, and others in reclassifying up to the 2020 class and is one of the youngest players available. Though he stands out for his speed, he's a better hitter than last year's top Canadian prospect, fellow speedster Dasan Brown, and his well-rounded profile makes him a favorite among scouts.
Calabrese is a bit undersized as a skinny sub-six footer, but he also won't turn 18 until September, giving him plenty of time to grow and add muscle. He has a loose swing from the left side with a slight uppercut, one that has enabled him to make very consistent contact throughout his amateur career. Though he'll never be a power hitter, the looseness in his swing combined with his athleticism and hopefully more physical development helps him project to be much more than just a slap hitter. He already shows a penchant for driving the ball to the gaps, and with his plus-plus speed, he should be a threat for plenty of doubles and triples at the next level. Defensively, that excellent speed also helps him in center field, where he needs some further refinement but has the potential to be a very good defender.
Partially owing to the fact that he's just so young, there are a lot of different directions Calabrese could develop. If he tacks on some more muscle as he finishes off his teenage years, he could find himself a 15-20 home run hitter at the big league level. Even if he more or less stays the same, there is the projection for a 5-15 home run hitter with lots of doubles and triples to supplement his slugging percentage, and he makes enough contact to profile for solid on-base percentages as well. Combine that with plenty of stolen bases and potentially great defense in center field, and it's a really well-rounded projection. However, because he's just 17 and hasn't seen a ton of high-level competition, he comes with some risk and the shortened season probably hurts him a lot more than it helps him. On talent alone, he fits in the second or third round, but he may choose to join Arkansas' incredibly talented recruiting class (which also includes big name draft prospects Masyn Winn, Markevian Hence, Cayden Wallace, and Nick Griffin) and that would complicate things considerably.
Hitting and fielding in 2020
2019 batting practice
Friday, May 15, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Casey Schmitt
3B/RHP Casey Schmitt
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/1/1999. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats (hitting): 0 HR, .323/.386/.452, 1 SB, 13/7 K/BB in 16 games
2020 Stats (pitching): 0-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10/5 K/BB in 12 IP
There are quite a few notable two way players at the high school level, including Masyn Winn, Colt Keith, Cade Horton, and Nolan McLean, but Schmitt looks like the clear top two-way college prospect this year. A third baseman and closer at San Diego State, he has slashed .317/.408/.450 since the start of the 2019 season and holds a 2.48 ERA with 23 saves over three years on the mound. Schmitt also homered eight times over 44 games in the elite Cape Cod League and put up a 1.93 ERA over 28 innings, earning the league's playoffs MVP. All of that said, most scouts prefer him as a hitter, where his upside is much higher.
At the plate, Schmitt employs a simple, line drive swing, and that combines well with innate hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to produce very consistent hard contact all over the field. Listed at 6'2", he possesses above average raw power as well, though he hasn't been consistent in tapping it. He topped out at five home runs in 56 games as a sophomore and did not hit one out in his 16 games in 2020, though he was returning from knee surgery and still hit .323 with six extra base hits. On the Cape, things were different as he blasted eight home runs in 44 games, one shy of Cape leaders T.J. Collett (Kentucky) and Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame). That showing was a huge boost for his stock, and if he can put that pure hitting ability together with his power, he could be a very dangerous hitter. Defensively, he's a very good third baseman who will be able to provide value there and effectively handle the defensive shifts that have become common in today's game.
On the mound, Schmitt profiles as a reliever. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds in a very good splitter that functions as his out pitch, and there is enough deception in his delivery to make both pitches play up. His command isn't pinpoint, but it's enough to be effective in a relief role. Everything played really well on the Cape, where in addition to his 1.93 ERA, he struck out 34 over 28 innings and often went multiple innings at a time.
Because Schmitt's profiles as a potential starting third baseman versus a middle reliever on the mound, he's most likely to get picked up as a hitter and it's unlikely that a team will try to send him out as a two-way guy. If he finds a way to put it all together at the plate, which is very possible once he gives up pitching and focuses on hitting full time, he could be a 20-25 home run bat with good on-base percentages and good defense, high upside for a college hitter outside of the top 50 picks. If the bat does falter, he could always fall back on pitching as well. His overall profile likely puts him somewhere in the second to third round range.
2019 game action (hitting)
Pitching on the Cape
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/1/1999. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats (hitting): 0 HR, .323/.386/.452, 1 SB, 13/7 K/BB in 16 games
2020 Stats (pitching): 0-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10/5 K/BB in 12 IP
There are quite a few notable two way players at the high school level, including Masyn Winn, Colt Keith, Cade Horton, and Nolan McLean, but Schmitt looks like the clear top two-way college prospect this year. A third baseman and closer at San Diego State, he has slashed .317/.408/.450 since the start of the 2019 season and holds a 2.48 ERA with 23 saves over three years on the mound. Schmitt also homered eight times over 44 games in the elite Cape Cod League and put up a 1.93 ERA over 28 innings, earning the league's playoffs MVP. All of that said, most scouts prefer him as a hitter, where his upside is much higher.
At the plate, Schmitt employs a simple, line drive swing, and that combines well with innate hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to produce very consistent hard contact all over the field. Listed at 6'2", he possesses above average raw power as well, though he hasn't been consistent in tapping it. He topped out at five home runs in 56 games as a sophomore and did not hit one out in his 16 games in 2020, though he was returning from knee surgery and still hit .323 with six extra base hits. On the Cape, things were different as he blasted eight home runs in 44 games, one shy of Cape leaders T.J. Collett (Kentucky) and Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame). That showing was a huge boost for his stock, and if he can put that pure hitting ability together with his power, he could be a very dangerous hitter. Defensively, he's a very good third baseman who will be able to provide value there and effectively handle the defensive shifts that have become common in today's game.
On the mound, Schmitt profiles as a reliever. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds in a very good splitter that functions as his out pitch, and there is enough deception in his delivery to make both pitches play up. His command isn't pinpoint, but it's enough to be effective in a relief role. Everything played really well on the Cape, where in addition to his 1.93 ERA, he struck out 34 over 28 innings and often went multiple innings at a time.
Because Schmitt's profiles as a potential starting third baseman versus a middle reliever on the mound, he's most likely to get picked up as a hitter and it's unlikely that a team will try to send him out as a two-way guy. If he finds a way to put it all together at the plate, which is very possible once he gives up pitching and focuses on hitting full time, he could be a 20-25 home run bat with good on-base percentages and good defense, high upside for a college hitter outside of the top 50 picks. If the bat does falter, he could always fall back on pitching as well. His overall profile likely puts him somewhere in the second to third round range.
2019 game action (hitting)
Pitching on the Cape
Thursday, May 14, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Gage Workman
3B Gage Workman, Arizona State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/24/1999. B/T: S/R
2020 Stats: 3 HR, .250/.316/.471, 3 SB, 21/5 K/BB in 17 games
Few teams are probably as disappointed about the cancelled season as Arizona State, who could have three day one draft picks from just their infield in first baseman Spencer Torkelson, shortstop Alika Williams, and third baseman Gage Workman. While Torkelson has hit his way to a possible (likely?) first overall selection, Workman joined Williams in stumbling out of the gate. After hitting a robust .330/.413/.528 with eight home runs as a sophomore in 2019, Workman garnered just two hits in his first five games (.111/.150/.167) before picking up just slightly from there. Still, it took two home runs in his final game of the season against Fresno State to give his line a last-minute jolt to a fairly ordinary .250/.316/.471, and an ugly 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio leaves him as a fairly divisive prospect.
Workman, a 6'4" switch hitter, shows an impressive array of tools at a young age, with his raw power probably being the best right now. That power plays better from the left side, where he has a quick but loose swing that can make the ball jump off his bat. From the right side, the swing is still quick, but it can get rigid and he swings and misses more often. He's shown some ability to tap his raw power, hitting eight home runs as a sophomore in what was an especially strong year for Pac 12 competition, but he should have more in the tank. In terms of pure hitting ability, he's shown the ability to catch up to high-end pitching in the Pac 12 and in the elite Cape Cod League, he has an aggressive approach at the plate that has led to an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 74 games since the start of the 2019 season.
In addition to his power upside, two things buy his bat additional time. Because he enrolled early at Arizona State in 2018, Workman is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, making him the age of a typical college sophomore. That buys slack for his approach at the plate, as many college hitters learn the nuances of the strike zone and plate discipline as they get older. The other is his defense, as he's a well above-average third baseman who might even be able to handle shortstop if a team wants to give him a shot. With shifts becoming extremely prevalent at the major league level, having a guy like Workman with shortstop-like range is extremely beneficial, especially when he brings a third baseman's offensive profile.
Workman entered the 2020 season right on the fringes of the first round conversation, but that was more based on what he could do, not what he had done to that point. With the up and down start to the season, he's seen somewhat of a market correction to his stock, now fitting somewhere in the second to third round range. He has a bit wider of a variation due to his streakiness as a hitter, in addition to outlier factors like his age and the status of his two year Mormon mission. While there is no indication as of now that he'll be taking it any time soon, the A's didn't think Kyler Murray would end up in the NFL and it's just something to keep in mind. Workman's ceiling is that of a 25-30 home run hitter with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third base or playable defense at shortstop.
2020 batting and fielding practice
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/24/1999. B/T: S/R
2020 Stats: 3 HR, .250/.316/.471, 3 SB, 21/5 K/BB in 17 games
Few teams are probably as disappointed about the cancelled season as Arizona State, who could have three day one draft picks from just their infield in first baseman Spencer Torkelson, shortstop Alika Williams, and third baseman Gage Workman. While Torkelson has hit his way to a possible (likely?) first overall selection, Workman joined Williams in stumbling out of the gate. After hitting a robust .330/.413/.528 with eight home runs as a sophomore in 2019, Workman garnered just two hits in his first five games (.111/.150/.167) before picking up just slightly from there. Still, it took two home runs in his final game of the season against Fresno State to give his line a last-minute jolt to a fairly ordinary .250/.316/.471, and an ugly 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio leaves him as a fairly divisive prospect.
Workman, a 6'4" switch hitter, shows an impressive array of tools at a young age, with his raw power probably being the best right now. That power plays better from the left side, where he has a quick but loose swing that can make the ball jump off his bat. From the right side, the swing is still quick, but it can get rigid and he swings and misses more often. He's shown some ability to tap his raw power, hitting eight home runs as a sophomore in what was an especially strong year for Pac 12 competition, but he should have more in the tank. In terms of pure hitting ability, he's shown the ability to catch up to high-end pitching in the Pac 12 and in the elite Cape Cod League, he has an aggressive approach at the plate that has led to an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 74 games since the start of the 2019 season.
In addition to his power upside, two things buy his bat additional time. Because he enrolled early at Arizona State in 2018, Workman is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, making him the age of a typical college sophomore. That buys slack for his approach at the plate, as many college hitters learn the nuances of the strike zone and plate discipline as they get older. The other is his defense, as he's a well above-average third baseman who might even be able to handle shortstop if a team wants to give him a shot. With shifts becoming extremely prevalent at the major league level, having a guy like Workman with shortstop-like range is extremely beneficial, especially when he brings a third baseman's offensive profile.
Workman entered the 2020 season right on the fringes of the first round conversation, but that was more based on what he could do, not what he had done to that point. With the up and down start to the season, he's seen somewhat of a market correction to his stock, now fitting somewhere in the second to third round range. He has a bit wider of a variation due to his streakiness as a hitter, in addition to outlier factors like his age and the status of his two year Mormon mission. While there is no indication as of now that he'll be taking it any time soon, the A's didn't think Kyler Murray would end up in the NFL and it's just something to keep in mind. Workman's ceiling is that of a 25-30 home run hitter with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third base or playable defense at shortstop.
2020 batting and fielding practice
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Kyle Nicolas
RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/22/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 2.74 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 37/7 K/BB in 23 IP
After winning the Ohio state championship in 2017, Jackson High School in the Canton suburb of Massillon sent its catcher to Ohio State and its best pitcher to Ball State. While Dillon Dingler has worked his way into serious first round conversation, Kyle Nicolas isn't far behind him. He showed loud stuff over his first two years in Muncie, but erratic command (91 walks in 108.2 innings) led to a 5.30 ERA in that time span. However, he looked much more refined in 2020, and he ended his season on a high note with a fantastic final start against Sacred Heart, allowing just two baserunners over seven shutout innings while striking out seventeen.
With Nicolas, it starts with the fastball. He sits in the mid 90's consistently and has reached back for triple digits a couple of times. The rest of his arsenal, though, is inconsistent. His best breaking ball is a potentially plus slider, which stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than for its movement but which can have sharp, bat-missing bite at times. He throws a curveball with good depth at its best, but the pitch often lacks finish and can get hit up in the zone. Lastly, he hasn't had much need for his changeup against a Midwest Athletic Conference (MAC) schedule, and that will be a key piece of his development going forward.
Nicolas has a long history of struggling to throw strikes. He walked 44 batters in 57 innings as a freshman in 2018, then walked 47 in 51.2 innings as a sophomore. However, he took a big step forward with his command in 2020, and it goes beyond just the fact that he walked only seven in 23 innings this year. He was also doing a much better job of repeating his delivery and getting ahead in the count, showing real progress rather than a fluke couple of weeks. At 6'4", he has a clear starter's build, and that 17 strikeout start against Sacred Heart to end the season put an exclamation point on the progress he's made.
It's a bit more of a boom/bust profile with Nicolas than with many other college arms in this range of the draft, but the size, velocity, projection in his stuff, and improvement in his command point give him a very high ceiling. He's the kind of pitcher who could take another leap forward in pro ball and look like a steal within a year, but there is continued work that needs to be done to get him to where he needs to be. If starting doesn't work out, he could fall back as a fastball/slider reliever with the former approaching 100. He probably fits somewhere in the second round, but due to the nature of his profile, he could easily be drafted before or after that.
Pitching in 2019 fall practice
Summer Cape Cod action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/22/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 2.74 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 37/7 K/BB in 23 IP
After winning the Ohio state championship in 2017, Jackson High School in the Canton suburb of Massillon sent its catcher to Ohio State and its best pitcher to Ball State. While Dillon Dingler has worked his way into serious first round conversation, Kyle Nicolas isn't far behind him. He showed loud stuff over his first two years in Muncie, but erratic command (91 walks in 108.2 innings) led to a 5.30 ERA in that time span. However, he looked much more refined in 2020, and he ended his season on a high note with a fantastic final start against Sacred Heart, allowing just two baserunners over seven shutout innings while striking out seventeen.
With Nicolas, it starts with the fastball. He sits in the mid 90's consistently and has reached back for triple digits a couple of times. The rest of his arsenal, though, is inconsistent. His best breaking ball is a potentially plus slider, which stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than for its movement but which can have sharp, bat-missing bite at times. He throws a curveball with good depth at its best, but the pitch often lacks finish and can get hit up in the zone. Lastly, he hasn't had much need for his changeup against a Midwest Athletic Conference (MAC) schedule, and that will be a key piece of his development going forward.
Nicolas has a long history of struggling to throw strikes. He walked 44 batters in 57 innings as a freshman in 2018, then walked 47 in 51.2 innings as a sophomore. However, he took a big step forward with his command in 2020, and it goes beyond just the fact that he walked only seven in 23 innings this year. He was also doing a much better job of repeating his delivery and getting ahead in the count, showing real progress rather than a fluke couple of weeks. At 6'4", he has a clear starter's build, and that 17 strikeout start against Sacred Heart to end the season put an exclamation point on the progress he's made.
It's a bit more of a boom/bust profile with Nicolas than with many other college arms in this range of the draft, but the size, velocity, projection in his stuff, and improvement in his command point give him a very high ceiling. He's the kind of pitcher who could take another leap forward in pro ball and look like a steal within a year, but there is continued work that needs to be done to get him to where he needs to be. If starting doesn't work out, he could fall back as a fastball/slider reliever with the former approaching 100. He probably fits somewhere in the second round, but due to the nature of his profile, he could easily be drafted before or after that.
Pitching in 2019 fall practice
Summer Cape Cod action
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Jeff Criswell
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/10/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26/9 K/BB in 24 IP
Michigan made its surprise run to the College World Series finals in 2019 largely on the backs of an excellent weekend rotation. Their top two starters, Tommy Henry (74th overall, Diamondbacks) and Karl Kauffman (77th overall, Rockies), went three picks apart in the draft, but their #3 starter, Jeff Criswell, has a chance to beat them both. In that stacked rotation, it was Criswell who led the team in ERA at 2.72, and his 116 strikeouts were second only to Henry's 135. However, his 50 walks also led the team, and that inconsistency has spilled over a bit into 2020. After posting a very respectable 3.38 ERA and 22/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, he had four very up and down starts that left him with a 4.50 ERA this year. He held his own against a very strong Vanderbilt lineup, got knocked around a bit by Connecticut, dominated Cal Poly, then finished with an okay start against Pepperdine.
Criswell has most of what it takes to be a successful professional starting pitcher right now. His fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching as high as 97 regularly, and he can get good movement on it as well. He adds in a good slider that has missed plenty of bats in college, and his changeup is relatively advanced with some nice fading action. His three pitch mix plays up because it can be hard to track the ball coming out his hand, with a pretty wide range of movement in his delivery. The delivery itself is mechanically sound and pretty straightforward, it's just the long arm action that moves hitters' eyes around a lot.
The concern with Criswell is command and consistency. The stuff is loud, but it's not that loud, and he can get hit around quite a bit when he starts falling behind in counts or lets his offspeed stuff lose their sharpness. In order to start at the next level, Criswell needs to get more consistent with either the stuff or the command, but preferably both. On an interesting side note, he is one of two Michigan Wolverines with top-100 aspirations, and the other, Jordan Nwogu, was born on the exact same day (3/10/1999).
Criswell is pretty close to putting it all together, and some pro coaching might be all he needs to harness his three pitch mix and become and impact big league starter. The velocity of course stands out, but the slider and changeup are both very good pitches when they're on and his durable, 6'4" frame lends itself very well to starting. If he can't get everything figured out and stick as a starter, his stuff would play well out of the bullpen, giving him some floor to fall back on. It's a pretty clear second round profile, and he could be drafted anywhere from the early second to the early third round.
2019 start vs Oklahoma State (he struck out a career-high 12 that day)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/10/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26/9 K/BB in 24 IP
Michigan made its surprise run to the College World Series finals in 2019 largely on the backs of an excellent weekend rotation. Their top two starters, Tommy Henry (74th overall, Diamondbacks) and Karl Kauffman (77th overall, Rockies), went three picks apart in the draft, but their #3 starter, Jeff Criswell, has a chance to beat them both. In that stacked rotation, it was Criswell who led the team in ERA at 2.72, and his 116 strikeouts were second only to Henry's 135. However, his 50 walks also led the team, and that inconsistency has spilled over a bit into 2020. After posting a very respectable 3.38 ERA and 22/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, he had four very up and down starts that left him with a 4.50 ERA this year. He held his own against a very strong Vanderbilt lineup, got knocked around a bit by Connecticut, dominated Cal Poly, then finished with an okay start against Pepperdine.
Criswell has most of what it takes to be a successful professional starting pitcher right now. His fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching as high as 97 regularly, and he can get good movement on it as well. He adds in a good slider that has missed plenty of bats in college, and his changeup is relatively advanced with some nice fading action. His three pitch mix plays up because it can be hard to track the ball coming out his hand, with a pretty wide range of movement in his delivery. The delivery itself is mechanically sound and pretty straightforward, it's just the long arm action that moves hitters' eyes around a lot.
The concern with Criswell is command and consistency. The stuff is loud, but it's not that loud, and he can get hit around quite a bit when he starts falling behind in counts or lets his offspeed stuff lose their sharpness. In order to start at the next level, Criswell needs to get more consistent with either the stuff or the command, but preferably both. On an interesting side note, he is one of two Michigan Wolverines with top-100 aspirations, and the other, Jordan Nwogu, was born on the exact same day (3/10/1999).
Criswell is pretty close to putting it all together, and some pro coaching might be all he needs to harness his three pitch mix and become and impact big league starter. The velocity of course stands out, but the slider and changeup are both very good pitches when they're on and his durable, 6'4" frame lends itself very well to starting. If he can't get everything figured out and stick as a starter, his stuff would play well out of the bullpen, giving him some floor to fall back on. It's a pretty clear second round profile, and he could be drafted anywhere from the early second to the early third round.
2019 start vs Oklahoma State (he struck out a career-high 12 that day)
Monday, May 11, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Victor Mederos
RHP Victor Mederos, Westminster Christian HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/8/2001. Commitment: Miami.
There is a ton of high school talent in the Miami area this year, and arguably the best prospect out of everyone is right handed pitcher Victor Mederos. Mederos has a fascinating backstory, which includes fleeing Cuba with his family at six years old and spending eleven days working his way through Central America, but more relevant to scouts is that more recently, he's been a star on the summer showcase circuit. Though he's pitched for three different high schools around Miami, there's much less of a track record in school as he's missed time with injuries and a global pandemic, and he comes with a very wide ceiling/floor gap that makes him a bit of a divisive prospect.
You're definitely buying the arm strength here. He sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 96 on quite a few occasions, with running action and natural extension from a big 6'4" frame. His secondaries are big pitches as well, as he can run his slider up to 87 and his power curveball has real depth, though the two can blend into each other. He also adds a solid changeup, and when he's on, it's one of the better four pitch mixes in the class. However, the problem has been consistency. There is some effort in his delivery, and when he reaches back for more velocity on his fastball, he can fly open and lose his arm slot, sending mid 90's velocity towards a right handed hitter's head. It can also cause him to yank some breaking balls into the dirt to his glove side, but this has been more prevalent with the fastball.
Interestingly, Mederos' command isn't actually all that bad. He does a good job of throwing strikes and hitting spots when he stays within himself, but the problems tend to arise only when he doesn't keep everything in line. Because of his tremendous arm strength, Mederos doesn't need to reach back and hurl the ball with everything he has, and trusting that arm strength and learning more body control could help him leap forward in pro ball. All of that bodes well for improved command down the line. There have been some minor concerns over Medero's larger frame and the fact that he's missed time with injuries, though nothing major. He also turns 19 two days before the draft, making him pretty old for a high school senior.
Mederos could really go anywhere in the draft, or not at all. He has high upside as a potential ace, which could entice teams as early as the comp round. However, there is tremendous risk involved due to how inconsistent he's been, which could knock him down to the second or third round on its own. Combine that with potential signability questions, as he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore at Miami in 2022, and he may not get drafted at all. Regardless of whether he's pitching for the Hurricanes or in the minors, it's going to be a lot of fun watching Mederos grow as a pitcher.
2020 game action
2019 summer showcase action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/8/2001. Commitment: Miami.
There is a ton of high school talent in the Miami area this year, and arguably the best prospect out of everyone is right handed pitcher Victor Mederos. Mederos has a fascinating backstory, which includes fleeing Cuba with his family at six years old and spending eleven days working his way through Central America, but more relevant to scouts is that more recently, he's been a star on the summer showcase circuit. Though he's pitched for three different high schools around Miami, there's much less of a track record in school as he's missed time with injuries and a global pandemic, and he comes with a very wide ceiling/floor gap that makes him a bit of a divisive prospect.
You're definitely buying the arm strength here. He sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 96 on quite a few occasions, with running action and natural extension from a big 6'4" frame. His secondaries are big pitches as well, as he can run his slider up to 87 and his power curveball has real depth, though the two can blend into each other. He also adds a solid changeup, and when he's on, it's one of the better four pitch mixes in the class. However, the problem has been consistency. There is some effort in his delivery, and when he reaches back for more velocity on his fastball, he can fly open and lose his arm slot, sending mid 90's velocity towards a right handed hitter's head. It can also cause him to yank some breaking balls into the dirt to his glove side, but this has been more prevalent with the fastball.
Interestingly, Mederos' command isn't actually all that bad. He does a good job of throwing strikes and hitting spots when he stays within himself, but the problems tend to arise only when he doesn't keep everything in line. Because of his tremendous arm strength, Mederos doesn't need to reach back and hurl the ball with everything he has, and trusting that arm strength and learning more body control could help him leap forward in pro ball. All of that bodes well for improved command down the line. There have been some minor concerns over Medero's larger frame and the fact that he's missed time with injuries, though nothing major. He also turns 19 two days before the draft, making him pretty old for a high school senior.
Mederos could really go anywhere in the draft, or not at all. He has high upside as a potential ace, which could entice teams as early as the comp round. However, there is tremendous risk involved due to how inconsistent he's been, which could knock him down to the second or third round on its own. Combine that with potential signability questions, as he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore at Miami in 2022, and he may not get drafted at all. Regardless of whether he's pitching for the Hurricanes or in the minors, it's going to be a lot of fun watching Mederos grow as a pitcher.
2020 game action
2019 summer showcase action
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