RHP Chris McMahon, Miami
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DoB: 2/4/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 38/5 K/BB in 25.2 IP
McMahon was a well-known prospect and potential top three rounds pick coming out of Rustin High School in the western Philadelphia suburbs in 2017, but he elected to head south to Miami and he's gotten better and better there. After getting his feet wet as a freshman, McMahon put up a solid sophomore campaign in 2019 (3.73 ERA, 67/23 K/BB in 60.1 IP) and pitched well with the US Collegiate National Team (2.25 ERA, 15/6 K/BB in 12 IP). In 2020, he's taken everything to another level, allowing a grand total of three runs against a relatively strong early-season schedule in Rutgers, Florida, Towson, and Pittsburgh. His start against a loaded Florida lineup was particularly impressive, where he allowed one run on six hits and two walks over six innings, striking out nine Gators on just 88 pitches.
What McMahon lacks in ceiling, he makes up for in now-ability and shows a pretty clear #3/#4 starter profile. He has a lot of power in his right arm that can run his fastball up to 98, but he's perfectly happy just settling in the mid 90's with a smooth, relatively low-effort delivery. He adds an improving mid 80's slider that elicits its share of swings and misses at its best, and he throws one of the better changeups in the class with serious armside fade. In part due to his easy delivery, he fills the strike zone consistently and projects for above average command.
With the potential for three plus pitches and good command, McMahon has everything he needs to be a #3 starter. Getting there will require him becoming a bit more consistent with his breaking ball, which can straighten out at times, but otherwise there aren't many holes in his game. He was off to a fantastic start in 2020 that was pushing him up boards, and in a year with a lot of uncertainty, that's an enticing package. Because he lacks the true strikeout pitch that you see from some of the other top arms in this class, it's hard to envision him as more than a #3, but the more you watch, it's hard to envision him as anything less either.
I'm one of the higher people on McMahon, and I absolutely see his skill set fitting somewhere in the 20's. In a draft class with a lot of uncertainty, he offers a safe impact starter who can stick in the rotation for a long time. When looking at him as the "safe" option, the only thing that really holds him back is a slightly shorter track record at the top of his game when compared to, say, Tanner Burns, but he's trending up and over the last two seasons he still has a 2.93 ERA and a 105/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings.
2020 start against Florida (home plate view)
2020 start against Towson (CF view)
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