Reviewing the Chicago Cubs Farm System

A few years ago, the Cubs' system included such big names as Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Gleyber Torres, Ian Happ, and...you get the point. That group of hitters has graduated and helped end the 108 year title drought (except for Torres), and the effect is essentially an empty farm system. Right now, few prospects project to be much more than marginal contributors in this pitching-heavy system, though there is some nice starting pitching depth and a couple of prospects look like they could break out next season. The Cubs' player development is pretty good, so some players down on the farm may outplay their prospect status as it stands today.

Affiliates: AAA Iowa Cubs, AA Tennessee Smokies, High A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Class A South Bend Cubs, Short Season Eugene Emeralds, complex level AZL and DSL Cubs

The Headliner: C Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya's offensive breakout was the best thing to happen to the Cubs' system in 2018. A highly regarded catching prospect when signed out of Panama, Amaya has always been praised for his defense behind the plate but it took a little while for his bat to get going. That changed in 2018, when he slashed .256/.349/.403 with 12 home runs and a nice 91/50 strikeout to walk ratio in 116 games at Class A South Bend. Those numbers look rather pedestrian on the surface, but context makes them much better. Amaya played the entire season at age 19 and does not turn 20 until just before the 2019 season, making him one of the younger players in the Midwest League, his plate discipline improved greatly despite the jump from short season to full season ball, and he's a catcher; it's tough to find good defensive catchers who can also swing it. I like the way he gets extension on the ball after contact, and while he has some work to do on his overall hit tool, I think he can grow into a fine MLB catcher. There are plenty of farm systems with no projected starting-quality catchers anywhere, so having Amaya is definitely big. He's a long way off, but he's as good a bet as any teenage catcher to be a starter in the major leagues.

The Army of Back-End Workhorses: Alex Lange, Keegan Thompson, Cory Abbott, Thomas Hatch, Erich Uelmen, and Michael Rucker
These six pitchers all have a lot in common, which is why I grouped them together. Aside from being workhorses, all six pitched at Division I college programs and were drafted in either 2016 or 2017, and all but Rucker were taken in the top four rounds. Former LSU star Alex Lange is my personal favorite of the bunch, and he also has the best chance to be more than an innings eater. Lange was a first rounder in 2017 (30th overall) and spent all of 2018 at High A Myrtle Beach, going 6-8 with a 3.74 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings. While he doesn't burn up the radar guns, he throws hard enough in the low 90's and his curveball is a deadly weapon. The 20.4% strikeout rate was a little low, but the 7.7% walk rate was also low, especially when compared to his 9.2% rate from his final year at LSU. This I think has come with more consistency in his delivery, and I like his chances for improving further and becoming a mid-rotation starter. Behind Amaya, he might be the best prospect in the system. Former Auburn star Keegan Thompson was a third round pick (105th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange, but because he is an academic year older than Lange (seven months in reality), he made it up to AA in 2018. Between Myrtle Beach and AA Tennessee, he was 9-6 with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 115/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings, pitching a little better in High A than AA as expected. Like Lange, he has a great curve, but he also throws a good changeup and commands his pitches better than Lange, which makes up for the lower velocity. He just needs to improve his consistency, though I think his ceiling is lower than Lange's with the same floor. Former Loyola Marymount star Cory Abbott was a second round pick (67th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange and Thompson, though he split 2018 between Class A South Bend and Myrtle Beach. Partially due to starting lower in the minors, his numbers were the best of the three (8-6, 2.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131/39 K/BB in 115 IP). He gets by more on mixing his pitches because none stand out as plus, giving A-ball hitters fits in the process, though his margin for error will shrink as he moves up. Consider Abbott a back-end option. Former Oklahoma State star Thomas Hatch was a third round pick (104th overall) in 2016. He had a pretty good year at Tennessee this year (8-6, 3.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 117/61 K/BB in 143.2 IP), showing the stuff and stamina to succeed but struggling a bit with his command. He looks like a #5 starter right now, but the walks are just a little high for his profile. Former Cal Poly star Erich Uelmen is the youngest of the six, having been drafted in the fourth round (135th overall) in 2017. He split 2018 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (8-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 82/30 K/BB in 89.1 total IP), generating tons of ground balls but also showing problems with durability. He has the highest reliever risk of the group. Lastly, former BYU star Michael Rucker, the oldest of the six, was an eleventh round pick in 2016 who rose to prominence with a big 2017 in A ball and some continued success at Tennessee in 2018 (9-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 118/38 K/BB in 132.2 IP). He gets by more on command than stuff, and though he's on the older side (pitched almost the whole season at age 24), he hopes to be a #5 starter in the near future.

Waiting to Put It Together: RHP Adbert Alzolay, SS Aramis Ademan, RHP Duane Underwood, LHP Brendon Little, and RHP Bailey Clark
These five players have had varying levels of success but also have seen inconsistency, and we're waiting to see which ones can put it together and become stars or at least valuable players. We'll start with 23 year old pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay, one of the top prospects in the system. Signed from Venezuela before the 2013 season, he was not a notable prospect at all until his breakout in 2015 with Short Season Eugene, then he really broke out with a huge 2017 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (7-4, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 108/34 K/BB in 114.1 total IP). I actually got to see his final start of the season that year in person, but he couldn't make it out of the second inning. He was off to a decent start at AAA Iowa in 2018 considering the difficult pitchers' environment in the PCL (2-4, 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27/13 K/BB in 39.2 IP), but a lat injury ended his season just eight starts in. He's somewhat difficult to project on the mound, showing a hard low to mid 90's fastball, though its movement is just average, and a very good curveball. Despite his inconsistency on the mound his control is pretty good, and it seems that he runs into his biggest problems not when he starts walking everybody, but when his stuff flattens out and he becomes hittable. In that sense, even though he already has eight AAA starts under his belt, he still has a high ceiling and a low floor, with possible outcomes being anything from a #2 starter to a reliever. Meanwhile, another prospect with initials AA has been up and down for different reasons. 20 year old shortstop Aramis Ademan has always been a big prospect, playing above his age group every year. He performed well enough against advanced competition as an 18 year old in 2017 (.267/.324/.427), but 2018 has been a different story as a 19 year old in the High A Carolina League with Myrtle Beach: 3 HR, .207/.291/.273, 95/38 K/BB in 114 games. The teenager seemed to be having the bat knocked out of his hands by pitchers years older than himself, popping out and grounding out more than he has in the past. Offensively, the one saving grace for his season was a moderately high walk rate of 8.4%, which is nothing crazy but is enough to show he at least could recognize pitches and maintain an approach. Of course, given his age and good defense at a premium position, the poor 2018 does not erase his stock completely and another year in High A could pay dividends. There's a lot of pre-pitch movement in his swing and he seems to sometimes just be flinging the bat at the ball, so increasing strength and getting more consistent with his mechanics, when combined with his moderately good eye and approach, could facilitate a breakout. He's a long way off but he could be a starting shortstop down the road, or a solid bench option. Duane Underwood was taken in the second round (67th overall) of the 2012 draft, and the man has somehow figured out how to stay on prospect lists for seven years. Talk about prospect fatigue. The 24 year old has managed this by looking great on the right days and terrible on the wrong days, and in 2018 it came together for a 4-10 record, a 4.53 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at AAA Iowa. He has been so inconsistent and the Cubs have been trying to develop him as a starter for so long that he ended up making five relief appearances at the end of the year, allowing six runs in seven innings (but striking out eight to just two walks). Overall, more than six years after he was drafted, it's hard to say what his impact will be; I'm guessing long reliever. Brendon Little was taken in the first round (27th overall) out of a Florida JuCo in 2017, which I saw as an overdraft. As it turns out, he struggled at Class A South Bend this year, going 5-11 with a 5.15 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 90/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. The level wasn't supposed to be particularly difficult for him, a hard throwing JuCo lefty, but hitters were able to handle the high velocity and great curveball due to his lack of a changeup, good command, and movement on his fastball. Development of the changeup and of his command could still make him a mid-rotation starter, but I think his future lies in the bullpen. Lastly, Bailey Clark was a fifth round pick out of Duke in 2016, and statistically he has been all over the place. A 4.59 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 2017 gave way to a 1.89 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, as well as a 63/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, in 2018. It's hard to know what to make of Clark going forward, but I think he has a pretty decent shot at being a useful reliever.

The Distant Future: LHP Brailyn Marquez, SS Nico Hoerner, OF Brennen Davis, OF Cole Roederer, OF Jimmy Herron, and OF Nelson Velazquez
These six players are so far off from the majors that anything can happen between now and then, though likely one or two could develop into very useful players. 19 year old lefty Brailyn Marquez had a breakout year in 2018, posting a 3.13 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 59/16 strikeout to walk ratio across 12 starts, mostly in Short Season ball at Eugene but also in Class A South Bend. His stuff all ticked up this year, and despite being a teenage lefty just learning to control his new velocity, he was surprisingly consistent in that he only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his twelve starts. A projectable 6'4", he figures to add even more velocity, and the command is pretty good for a pitcher in his position. He's a long way off and twelve starts in the low minors don't guarantee anything, but he's a breakout candidate for 2019 and could be the system's top prospect following the season should he do so. Perhaps the closest to the majors out of these six is this year's first round pick (24th overall), 21 year old infielder Nico Hoerner. Personally, I wasn't a big fan of the pick, though through a small sample his pro debut was a success: 2 HR, .327/.450/.571 slash line, 6 SB, 4/9 K/BB in 14 games. The Stanford product is considered a high floor, low ceiling player who could be the Cubs' starting second baseman down the road, showing no standout tools but doing a little bit of everything. If he doesn't start, I think he'll make a fine super-utility player along the lines of Houston's Marwin Gonzalez. With their 62nd and 77th overall picks, respectively, the Cubs took a couple of toolsy high school outfielders in Brennen Davis and Cole Roederer. While Davis is bigger and has more power potential, Roederer is faster and is a bit more advanced. I like Davis' upside better as a potential multi-category contributor, while Roederer might have a smoother road to the majors. Of course, with a couple of raw outfielders taken out of high school, the risk is very high and they have a lot to prove to be considered top prospects. The third round pick (98th overall), outfielder Jimmy Herron, comes from Duke and managed to slash .245/.333/.345 with three home runs in 33 games at South Bend this year, respectable for someone straight out of college ball. He's unlikely to ever start for the Cubs, but his strong plate discipline and hittability gives him a good shot at being a fourth outfielder in the fairly near future as a quick-to-the-big-leagues type. Lastly, another outfielder, 19 year old Nelson Velazquez, struggled at South Bend (.188/.242/.196) but was much better after a demotion to Eugene (.250/.322/.458, 11 HR, 12 SB, 81/23 K/BB). The Puerto Rico product is obviously very raw, but like Davis, he shows a tantalizing power-speed combination that should become more impactful once he improves his plate discipline. Like Davis and to an extent Roederer, he's high ceiling, low floor.

2018 Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

First 5 rounds: Nico Hoerner (1-24), Brennen Davis (2-62), Cole Roederer (2-77), Paul Richan (2-78), Jimmy Herron (3-98), Ethan Roberts (4-128), Andy Weber (5-158)
Also notable: D.J. Artis (7-218), Riley Thompson (11-338)

The Cubs took an unconventional approach to this draft, because even though they had five picks of the first 100 picks, they really only grabbed one guy who was widely considered a top 100 prospect, and I even think that pick (Nico Hoerner) was a reach. They grabbed two high schoolers early on with tremendous ceilings and a lot of work to do to get there, as well as quite a few college players with high floors. It's hard to call this a bad draft from the outset, because they must really believe in Brennen Davis' and Cole Roederer's ceilings, in which case they could prove to be steals. However, whenever you buck consensus and take under the radar guys, there's a lot of pressure to get it right. We'll see how this draft goes, but I think it actually hinges more on Davis and Roederer than on Hoerner.

1-24: SS Nico Hoerner (my rank: 64)
Most analysts had Hoerner in the 35-50 range, and I in particular am not a big Hoerner fan, so it's safe to say I don't like this pick, especially for a farm system lacking impact talent. Hoerner is an infielder out of Stanford, coming off a junior season where he slashed .349/.394/.502 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. His profile revolves around his hit tool, which is elite, but I'm afraid there's not enough else in the profile to justify a first round pick. Though he can put the bat to the ball with anybody in the class save for Nick Madrigal, striking out in just 8.7% of his plate appearances this year, he doesn't walk much (7.5%) and that eats into his on-base percentage. He has a stocky build at about 6' (height listed at 5'11" or 6'1" depending on the source but he looks short) and has hit just three home runs in 167 career games at Stanford, though some people think he can add more power. They'll point to his compact build, .300/.356/.456 line (6 HR) in the Cape Cod League this past spring, and room for improvement in his swing. Personally, I can see a way to add loft to his swing and tap into that power, but I think it's far from a given and it wouldn't be a small change. Having those great bat to ball skills would help him with such a change, but it's definitely not a certainty. He's a good defender and could stick at short, though second base is a likelihood. Overall, he just seems like he has the upside of an average middle infielder, and I don't like that for the first round. He signed for just over $2.7 million, right at slot. He's off to a hot start in six games between the rookie level Arizona League and the short season level Northwest League, slashing .350/.500/.600 with a pair of home runs, four stolen bases, and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio.

2-62: OF Brennen Davis (unranked)
Davis was viewed more as a third to fifth round pick, but the Cubs obviously liked his ceiling enough to take him here in the second round. He's one of those guys where the sky is the limit but an outright flop is very possible. He's a 6'4" high school outfielder from the Phoenix suburbs with tons of tools but a long way to go in terms of refinement. He's very lean and has a lot of room to add good weight, and he's extremely fast with a good arm, but that's about it in terms of the right now. His swing is quick and could produce plenty of power from the right side down the road, but he's very raw, will need some mechanical changes, and doesn't have the contact ability yet to help with those changes. He can stick in center field, which buys the bat time, but he has a long way to go to reach his ceiling. He signed for $1.1 million, which was $39,100 above slot. He has played two games in the Arizona League and has two singles in five at bats, striking out once, walking once, and stealing a base.

2-77: OF Cole Roederer (unranked)
Roederer, a high schooler from Newhall, California, is way off the beaten path, unranked on MLB.com's top 200 or on Fangraphs' top 130 and coming in at #161 on the Baseball America 500. It's hard to find much information on him, but from video he has a quick swing that will need to be altered significantly, as it's flat and features a short follow through. He's fast, with the chance to stick in center field, and he's s left handed hitter, so the upside is definitely here. Like with Davis, it's a risky pick, though I think Davis' upside is better. He signed for $1.2 million, which is $424,900 above slot. In his first game in the Arizona League, he had one single in four at bats while walking and stealing a base.

2-78: RHP Paul Richan (unranked)
Richan graduated from the same Hart High School in Newhall as Roederer, though he was just drafted as a junior out of the University of San Diego. On the surface, his 2017 season looked better (5-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 73/21 K/BB) but his peripherals actually suggested he was better in 2018 (4-6, 4.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 101/13 K/BB). The 6'2" right hander has a full arsenal that helped him keep college hitters off balance and get tons of strikeouts, throwing a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The Cubs will try to develop him as a back-end starter, one who relies on command and mixing his pitches more than he does on stuff. He signed for $450,000, which is $312,900 under slot, and he threw two shutout innings on one hit, no walks, and five strikeouts in his Northwest League debut.

3-98: OF Jimmy Herron (unranked)
Herron, an outfielder from Duke, isn't a high ceiling guy so much as he is a high floor guy. He has been a three year performer, batting over .300 with an on-base percentage over .410 and a slugging percentage over .430 in each of his three seasons in Durham. This year, he slashed .304/.419/.460 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 28/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games, showing speed, on-base ability, and plate discipline. He also hit very well in the Cape Cod League (.338/.443/.481, 4 HR, 26/20 K/BB), which certainly bodes well for him at the next level. Herron profiles as the kind of guy who will have less trouble than most adjusting to new levels due to his advanced approach at the plate, and while he is likely a fourth outfielder, he has the potential to be a starting center fielder if he can add power. He signed for $520,000, which is $50,600 below slot, but he'll miss the remainder of the season and likely part of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

7-218: OF D.J. Artis (unranked)
I'm throwing Artis in this section because I got the opportunity to watch him play against Virginia Tech during the season. Like Herron, he's a speedy center fielder, offering the same amount of ceiling four rounds later but a bit less safety. He was great as a sophomore last year at Liberty (.359/.532/.552, 6 HR, 23 SB, 30/62 K/BB), but saw his production drop a bit this year by slashing .292/.458/.457 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 49/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. He is clearly very patient and draws a ton of walks (24.6% last year, 18% this year), giving him leadoff hitter potential if he can successfully adjust to minor league pitching. He supposedly has been getting pitched around just as much if not more this year, though he has become more impatient and chased more pitches (strikeout rate up from 11.9% to 17%). That was the case when I saw him, and he seemed a bit uncomfortable with advanced breaking stuff in that small sample. If he can get his approach back in gear, his exceptional on-base percentages and great speed will help him steal tons of bases. He signed for $250,000, which is $57,500 above slot, and he is 0-2 with a walk and a strikeout in the Arizona League so far.

Others: 4th rounder Ethan Roberts, a 5'11" right handed pitcher, was the first player drafted off a Tennessee Tech team more known for its offense than its pitching, but he still turned in a very good year. As Tennessee Tech's most important relieve, he went 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, often going two, three, or even four innings. He'll likely be a reliever in the Cubs system and could be one of the first 2018 draftees up in the majors. 5th rounder Andy Weber comes from UVA, finishing his junior year with a .344/.415/.536 line, five home runs, and a 32/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. He's a second baseman with overall average tools at the plate, one who could be a utility man in the majors but who could surprise with some power if he puts more into his free and easy swing. 11th rounder Riley Thompson is a 6'3" righty out of Louisville who had an awful year for the Cardinals, going 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 35/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings. He throws very hard, consistently in the mid 90's as a starter and into the upper 90's as a reliever, and his curve looks good at times too, but command and inconsistency in that secondary stuff has done him in. He has the stamina to start but may be pushed to the bullpen if he can't get everything else together, where his fastball/curveball combination will play up.