First 5 rounds: Nico Hoerner (1-24), Brennen Davis (2-62), Cole Roederer (2-77), Paul Richan (2-78), Jimmy Herron (3-98), Ethan Roberts (4-128), Andy Weber (5-158)
Also notable: D.J. Artis (7-218), Riley Thompson (11-338)
The Cubs took an unconventional approach to this draft, because even though they had five picks of the first 100 picks, they really only grabbed one guy who was widely considered a top 100 prospect, and I even think that pick (Nico Hoerner) was a reach. They grabbed two high schoolers early on with tremendous ceilings and a lot of work to do to get there, as well as quite a few college players with high floors. It's hard to call this a bad draft from the outset, because they must really believe in Brennen Davis' and Cole Roederer's ceilings, in which case they could prove to be steals. However, whenever you buck consensus and take under the radar guys, there's a lot of pressure to get it right. We'll see how this draft goes, but I think it actually hinges more on Davis and Roederer than on Hoerner.
1-24: SS Nico Hoerner (my rank: 64)
Most analysts had Hoerner in the 35-50 range, and I in particular am not a big Hoerner fan, so it's safe to say I don't like this pick, especially for a farm system lacking impact talent. Hoerner is an infielder out of Stanford, coming off a junior season where he slashed .349/.394/.502 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. His profile revolves around his hit tool, which is elite, but I'm afraid there's not enough else in the profile to justify a first round pick. Though he can put the bat to the ball with anybody in the class save for Nick Madrigal, striking out in just 8.7% of his plate appearances this year, he doesn't walk much (7.5%) and that eats into his on-base percentage. He has a stocky build at about 6' (height listed at 5'11" or 6'1" depending on the source but he looks short) and has hit just three home runs in 167 career games at Stanford, though some people think he can add more power. They'll point to his compact build, .300/.356/.456 line (6 HR) in the Cape Cod League this past spring, and room for improvement in his swing. Personally, I can see a way to add loft to his swing and tap into that power, but I think it's far from a given and it wouldn't be a small change. Having those great bat to ball skills would help him with such a change, but it's definitely not a certainty. He's a good defender and could stick at short, though second base is a likelihood. Overall, he just seems like he has the upside of an average middle infielder, and I don't like that for the first round. He signed for just over $2.7 million, right at slot. He's off to a hot start in six games between the rookie level Arizona League and the short season level Northwest League, slashing .350/.500/.600 with a pair of home runs, four stolen bases, and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio.
2-62: OF Brennen Davis (unranked)
Davis was viewed more as a third to fifth round pick, but the Cubs obviously liked his ceiling enough to take him here in the second round. He's one of those guys where the sky is the limit but an outright flop is very possible. He's a 6'4" high school outfielder from the Phoenix suburbs with tons of tools but a long way to go in terms of refinement. He's very lean and has a lot of room to add good weight, and he's extremely fast with a good arm, but that's about it in terms of the right now. His swing is quick and could produce plenty of power from the right side down the road, but he's very raw, will need some mechanical changes, and doesn't have the contact ability yet to help with those changes. He can stick in center field, which buys the bat time, but he has a long way to go to reach his ceiling. He signed for $1.1 million, which was $39,100 above slot. He has played two games in the Arizona League and has two singles in five at bats, striking out once, walking once, and stealing a base.
2-77: OF Cole Roederer (unranked)
Roederer, a high schooler from Newhall, California, is way off the beaten path, unranked on MLB.com's top 200 or on Fangraphs' top 130 and coming in at #161 on the Baseball America 500. It's hard to find much information on him, but from video he has a quick swing that will need to be altered significantly, as it's flat and features a short follow through. He's fast, with the chance to stick in center field, and he's s left handed hitter, so the upside is definitely here. Like with Davis, it's a risky pick, though I think Davis' upside is better. He signed for $1.2 million, which is $424,900 above slot. In his first game in the Arizona League, he had one single in four at bats while walking and stealing a base.
2-78: RHP Paul Richan (unranked)
Richan graduated from the same Hart High School in Newhall as Roederer, though he was just drafted as a junior out of the University of San Diego. On the surface, his 2017 season looked better (5-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 73/21 K/BB) but his peripherals actually suggested he was better in 2018 (4-6, 4.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 101/13 K/BB). The 6'2" right hander has a full arsenal that helped him keep college hitters off balance and get tons of strikeouts, throwing a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The Cubs will try to develop him as a back-end starter, one who relies on command and mixing his pitches more than he does on stuff. He signed for $450,000, which is $312,900 under slot, and he threw two shutout innings on one hit, no walks, and five strikeouts in his Northwest League debut.
3-98: OF Jimmy Herron (unranked)
Herron, an outfielder from Duke, isn't a high ceiling guy so much as he is a high floor guy. He has been a three year performer, batting over .300 with an on-base percentage over .410 and a slugging percentage over .430 in each of his three seasons in Durham. This year, he slashed .304/.419/.460 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 28/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games, showing speed, on-base ability, and plate discipline. He also hit very well in the Cape Cod League (.338/.443/.481, 4 HR, 26/20 K/BB), which certainly bodes well for him at the next level. Herron profiles as the kind of guy who will have less trouble than most adjusting to new levels due to his advanced approach at the plate, and while he is likely a fourth outfielder, he has the potential to be a starting center fielder if he can add power. He signed for $520,000, which is $50,600 below slot, but he'll miss the remainder of the season and likely part of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
7-218: OF D.J. Artis (unranked)
I'm throwing Artis in this section because I got the opportunity to watch him play against Virginia Tech during the season. Like Herron, he's a speedy center fielder, offering the same amount of ceiling four rounds later but a bit less safety. He was great as a sophomore last year at Liberty (.359/.532/.552, 6 HR, 23 SB, 30/62 K/BB), but saw his production drop a bit this year by slashing .292/.458/.457 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 49/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. He is clearly very patient and draws a ton of walks (24.6% last year, 18% this year), giving him leadoff hitter potential if he can successfully adjust to minor league pitching. He supposedly has been getting pitched around just as much if not more this year, though he has become more impatient and chased more pitches (strikeout rate up from 11.9% to 17%). That was the case when I saw him, and he seemed a bit uncomfortable with advanced breaking stuff in that small sample. If he can get his approach back in gear, his exceptional on-base percentages and great speed will help him steal tons of bases. He signed for $250,000, which is $57,500 above slot, and he is 0-2 with a walk and a strikeout in the Arizona League so far.
Others: 4th rounder Ethan Roberts, a 5'11" right handed pitcher, was the first player drafted off a Tennessee Tech team more known for its offense than its pitching, but he still turned in a very good year. As Tennessee Tech's most important relieve, he went 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, often going two, three, or even four innings. He'll likely be a reliever in the Cubs system and could be one of the first 2018 draftees up in the majors. 5th rounder Andy Weber comes from UVA, finishing his junior year with a .344/.415/.536 line, five home runs, and a 32/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. He's a second baseman with overall average tools at the plate, one who could be a utility man in the majors but who could surprise with some power if he puts more into his free and easy swing. 11th rounder Riley Thompson is a 6'3" righty out of Louisville who had an awful year for the Cardinals, going 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 35/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings. He throws very hard, consistently in the mid 90's as a starter and into the upper 90's as a reliever, and his curve looks good at times too, but command and inconsistency in that secondary stuff has done him in. He has the stamina to start but may be pushed to the bullpen if he can't get everything else together, where his fastball/curveball combination will play up.
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