First 5 rounds: Jonathan India (1-5), Lyon Richardson (2-47), Josiah Gray (CBB-72), Bren Spillane (3-82), Mike Siani (4-109), Ryan Campbell (5-139)
Also notable: Jay Schuyler (7-199), Andrew McDonald (9-259), Michael Byrne (14-409)
The Reds made some picks I liked and some I didn't, but overall they grabbed some good talent here. There's a lot of upside in this class, and they did a good job of getting a little bit of everything, taking one player from each of the four major demographic groups (high school hitter/pitcher, college hitter/pitcher) in their first five picks. Even though I don't like some of the picks, I like the overall class here and Reds fans should be happy with the haul.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (my rank: 12)
I had India ranked outside the top ten, but considering how much they saved in signing him, it's hard to fault the Reds for going under slot to sign the most productive hitter in college baseball. In 68 games, many of which were against college baseball's toughest competition in the SEC, the Florida Gator third baseman slashed .350/.497/.717 with 21 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 56/60 strikeout to walk ratio. College pitching, even its best, clearly has nothing on him, and he even homered off of #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Right now, despite the huge power surge and relatively high 18.7% strikeout rate during his junior season, his hit tool to me looks to be ahead of his power, and I see him as likely to post high on-base percentages (he also walked in 20% of his plate appearances). He generates his power through a quick, short swing, though it didn't show up until this season (slugged .440 and .429 in first two seasons) and it didn't show up with wood bats in the Cape Cod League (.281/.397/.398, 1 HR over two years). I'm not sure if he made whatever change that gave him more power before or after the Cape, but I'm not entirely sure all that power translates to wood bats. My guess is that India ends up hitting 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages around .370, which is All Star level. He signed for just under $5.3 million, coming in just about $650,000 under slot. In his first game in the rookie level Appalachian League, he went 0-2 but walked twice.
2-47: RHP Lyon Richardson (my rank: 89)
I'm not as big a fan of this pick. Richardson is a 6'2" high school right hander from Port St. Lucie, Florida with a live arm that can dial his fastball up to 97. The arm strength is what the Reds are buying here, as it's something you often can't teach, while the rest of his game is something you can teach. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much going for the rest of his game. I couldn't find much video before the draft, but his slider is a work in progress and his changeup is just getting started, so the Reds are gambling a lot on those secondaries. His control is average, and at 6'2", he lacks some of the projection of some of his counterparts. Still, you can't teach arm strength as much as other skills, and Richardson has it. He signed for nearly $2 million, nearly $500,000 over slot, and has allowed six runs in four innings with a 5/4 strikeout to walk ratio in the Appalachian League.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (my rank: 106)
Because they saved money on Gray, I don't mind this pick. He's a 6'1" righty out of DII Le Moyne College in Syracuse, but he didn't actually begin pitching until last year, his sophomore year. He was originally recruited as a light hitting shortstop, but Le Moyne liked his arm strength and struck gold. In 13 starts this year, he went 11-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio, completely overwhelming low level DII competition. He throws low to mid 90's and can easily blow it by DII hitters, and his slider is steadily improving. His command is coming together, but it's still a work in progress, and his changeup is virtually non-existent like Richardson's. He's very raw, especially for a college pitcher, but he is one of the youngest college juniors in the class and doesn't turn 21 until December, which buys him some time. He signed for $772,500, which is $65,200 below slot, and he has allowed three runs in 11 innings (2.45 ERA) on five hits, two walks, and 11 strikeouts so far in the Appalachian League.
3-82: OF Bren Spillane (unranked)
I was very aware of Spillane before the draft, but chose not to include him in the rankings because I'm not his biggest fan. Like India, he put up exceptional numbers this year, but I just don't think his game translates well to pro ball. Through 50 games for Illinois, he slashed .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio against pretty good Big 10 competition. Clearly, college pitching has nothing on him, though he didn't get the chance to face much of college baseball's best (Indiana's Jonathan Stiever, #94 on my list, was probably the best arm he faced, going 1-5 with a double and a pair of walks in two games). The reason I don't think his power will play up is that a) his swing is long, and b) he doesn't have much bat speed. He'll have a tough time catching up to the high heat he'll see in the upper levels of the minors. I also see his power coming more from strength than from bat speed, and it will be tougher to muscle balls out with wood bats than with metal unless he can barrel up fastballs consistently and use their velocity. Despite being 6'5" and big, he actually can run a little, meaning he won't be a liability in a corner outfield spot. He signed for $597,500, which is $118,500 below slot, and he is slashing .261/.397/.500 with a pair of home runs and a 25/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 16 games in the rookie level Pioneer League.
4-109: OF Mike Siani (my rank: 34)
Obviously, this is a great pick for the Reds. He's universally regarded as at least a second or third round talent, but fell to the fourth round due to signability, and the Reds were able to grab him for a large over slot bonus. Personally, I'm higher than most on him, as you can tell by the ranking. He's a high school outfielder from Philadelphia, one who obviously doesn't get the opportunity to practice year round like his southern counterparts. He's mostly projection at this point, though at 6'1" and sturdily built, it's more skill projection than physical projection. Siani's main value is on defense, as he can stick in center field with well above average arm strength and range. He's more of a project on offense, where he is just an average hitter, but I think he can improve. He gets the bat on the ball enough, and he has done a good job in adding loft to his swing, so I think once he puts it together and can start barreling the ball up and turning on pitches, he could be a 15-20 homer bat with a high enough on-base percentage to give him the chance to steal 20 bases per season. That doesn't sound extremely exciting as a ceiling, but when you combine that with great defense, it's a very valuable player any team would like to have. He signed for $2 million, which was nearly $1.5 million above slot, and he has two singles in seven at bats with one strikeout in his first two games in the Appalachian League.
9-259: RHP Andrew McDonald (unranked)
McDonald was a fifth year senior at Virginia Tech, one who I got to watch plenty over the years. He's a 6'6" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a pretty good breaking ball, though inconsistency in both his velocity and his command have kept him from posting good numbers at Tech. This past year was his best as a Hokie, as he went 1-8 with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54.2 innings. If pro coaching can help him get his delivery under control, as he often struggled to repeat it in Blacksburg, he could even start at the major league level, but he will take a lot of work and turns 24 over the offseason. Essentially, if he responds to mechanical changes quickly, he's a good pick, but if he takes time to get everything together, there isn't a lot of time on his prospect clock. Interestingly, the Reds also spent their 9th round pick on a Virginia Tech pitcher last year with lefty Packy Naughton, though he was the 257th pick while McDonald was 259th. McDonald signed for $7,500, which is $155,100 below slot. Through six appearances in the Pioneer League, he has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 7.1 innings (7.36 ERA) on eight hits, eight walks, and nine strikeouts.
Others: 5th rounder Ryan Campbell was a senior out of the University of Illinois-Chicago, finishing the year 7-3 with a 1.53 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. The 6'3" righty got his outs by commanding his pitches and inducing weak contact, and he'll need to continue to have sharp command to make it as a starter in the minor league system. 7th rounder Jay Schuyler was the University of San Diego's catcher, slashing .342/.414/.493 with seven home runs and a 30/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 55 games. I haven't heard anything about his defense but he has an advanced approach at the plate and puts the ball in play regularly, striking out in just 12% of his plate appearances while posting an OPS over .900. 14th rounder Michael Byrne is a great day three find, and while he required the Reds to spend $132,500 against their bonus pool, he could really help them soon. Byrne was the relief ace for Florida, posting a 1.61 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 64/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, often going more than one inning in relief. He was also excellent on the Cape (0.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13/4 K/BB), and he's a guy who should move quickly through the minors. Byrne is a 6'2" righty who throws his fastball around 90, which is very slow for a supposedly elite reliever, but he gets away with it due to its movement, deception, and his command of it. When it's moving and he places it right where he wants to around the zone, it's tough to square up, but his command will have to remain tight if he wants to make it to the majors.
No comments:
Post a Comment