Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Thoughts on Orioles Prospects Alex Wells and Cole Billingsley

I had the opportunity to watch four games at Arthur Perdue Stadium this summer, where the Baltimore Orioles' low-A affiliate, the Delmarva Shorebirds, play. It's not a particularly talented team, but two players caught my eye and I figured I'd write about them.

Alex Wells: 11-5, 2.45 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 109/10 K/BB, Age 20
Fastball: 45. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 60. Control: 70. Command: 60.

2016 second round pick Matthias Dietz was supposed to the top pitching prospect on the Shorebirds, but a young lefty named Alex Wells has blown past him. Signed at 18 years old in 2015 out of Australia, he made his American debut in 2016, putting up a very solid 2.15 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 13 starts for Aberdeen in the New York-Penn League, striking out 50 and walking just nine in 62.2 innings. Promoted up to Class A in 2017 not long after his 20th birthday, he has elevated his stock more than any player in the Orioles' system this year. Through 24 starts, he has a 2.45 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a ridiculous 109/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 136 innings.

Wells is a 6'1" left hander, sitting in the 88-90 range with his fastball, spinning a below average curveball, and tossing an excellent changeup. He manages to get outs via excellent control and blossoming command, which make all three pitches play up. You can see the control playing out right there on the stat sheet, walking 3.8% of the batters he faced in 2016 and a minuscule 1.9% this year. He doesn't walk people. His command is coming along very nicely, as he has had no problems moving his fastball up, down, in, out, and around the zone, and he can even spot his curveball and changeup to specific regions of the strike zone. Of course, he's just 20 years old, so he still misses spots, and with his mediocre fastball and curveball, he'll have to continue to improve in that area as he moves through the minors. The curveball, which sits in the low 70's, has good shape, and can really drop if he gets on top of it, has the potential to become an average pitch if he can add power and consistency to it. Together with the control and command, Wells could become a #4 starter and a rare pitching prospect success story for an Orioles team that hasn't quite gotten what it wanted out of Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, and Hunter Harvey.

Cole Billingsley: 3 HR, .277/.344/.360, 107 wRC+, 27 SB, 89/39 K/BB, Age 23
Hit: 50. Power: 35. Run: 60. Field: 65. Throw: 50.

Unlike Wells, Billingsley is unlikely to ever be an impact player for Baltimore, but he caught my eye at the top of the Shorebirds' lineup and was my favorite player to watch this summer. The 23 year old was drafted in the 19th round out of the University of South Alabama in 2016 after slashing .315/.385/.396 with three home runs and 64 stolen bases over three seasons in Mobile. At Aberdeen in the New York-Penn League last season, he slashed a respectable .286/.353/.375 over 53 games, swatting three home runs and stealing 14 bases while only being caught once. This year, he has been a good table-setter for Delmarva, slashing .277/.344/.360 with three home runs and 27 stolen bases over 110 games, adding 22 doubles and a pair of triples. Let's look into what the left fielder has to offer.

The 5'10", 165 pound Billingsley will never be a power hitter, instead relying on a clean swing, great defense, and solid baseball instincts to move him up the ladder. He's old for the South Atlantic League, having turned 23 in May while Braves prospect Cristian Pache has put up similar stats in the same league despite still being 18 years old. However, Billingsley's age doesn't work entirely against him, as his advanced instincts have allowed him to compete despite a lack of tools. He has struck out in 18.7% of his plate appearances and walked in just 8.2%, which doesn't scream "polished hitter," but I do like his approach at the plate. His strikeouts have been more due to a tendency to chase with two strikes than due to a lack of overall strike zone judgement, and he will take his walks if he can stay in control of the count. He laces line drives to all field, and though he'll never have any significant home run power, he can put the ball in the gaps and let his plus speed do the rest. The speed also plays well on defense because he gets excellent jumps in left field, regularly making very difficult plays look routine. Even without a great arm, he's a plus defender, one that could certainly help a major league team if his bat can come along. Overall, he's not likely to make it to the major leagues, but his combination of instincts and speed make him a very fun player to watch and one that could work his way into a fourth outfielder role if everything comes together. At 23, it has to come together soon for the former 19th rounder.

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Mariners Acquire Yonder Alonso For Wild Card Run

Mariners Get: Yonder Alonso (22 HR, 49 RBI, .266 AVG, 1 SB, 140 wRC+, Age 30)
A's Get: Boog Powell (0 HR, 2 RBI, .194 AVG, 0 SB, 51 wRC+, Age 24)

In the first major trade post-deadline, the Mariners added some thunder to their lineup with the acquisition of Yonder Alonso, who is having a career year despite what his .266 batting average might try to tell you. Right now, Danny Valencia is manning first base and slashing a respectable .266/.317/.418 (99 wRC+), but Alonso will no doubt be an upgrade there. There is a chance the Mariners employ somewhat of a platoon there, as Valencia is slashing .297/.368/.505 against lefties, and Alonso is slashing .286/.391/.557 against righties. A year after slashing a mediocre .253/.316/.367 (88 wRC+), Alonso has changed his approach and it has paid huge dividends. He started hitting more fly balls, and this year, he's slashing .266/.369/.527 (140 wRC+) in a tough O.Co Coliseum, crushing 22 home runs when his previous career high, set back in 2012, was just nine. SAFECO Field isn't much easier to hit in than the Coliseum, but he'll have more lineup protection in Seattle with Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Jean Segura around him. He also won't have to hit against lefties as much, against whom he's slashing just .188/.278/.406 this year. For his career, the former Miami Hurricane has 61 home runs and a .268/.339/.405 slash line. He's a free agent after the season, so this is a very short rental.

The newest Athletic isn't all that new to green and gold, having been drafted by Oakland in 2012, finding himself traded to the Rays, then the Mariners, and now back to the A's. Suspended for amphetamine use back in 2014, outfielder Boog Powell (no relation to the other Boog Powell) seems to have put that behind him, and he reached the majors at the age of 24 this year. In 23 games, he struggled a bit, slashing .194/.310/.194, though he did walk six times in 43 plate appearances, or 14% of the time. He's been much better at AAA Tacoma, where he is slashing .340/.416/.490 with six home runs and eleven stolen bases in 58 games, showcasing an exaggerated example of what he can be expected to do in the majors. Once he's up full time, he'll be a .270ish hitter with below average power, though he may be hampered a bit by his relative inability to draw a walk. He'll have a hard time cracking a starting lineup if something doesn't change, because even though a .270 batting average with a low strikeout rate and good speed is a pretty good combination, if he can't push his on-base percentage north of .330 or .340, he isn't quite making up for the lack of power.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Composite Trades For Each Team, 2017 Deadline

Below is each team's summary for the 2017 trade deadline; i.e., who they traded and who they gave up in one spot. It is organized by standings in each division.

AL East

New York Yankees (buyers)
Acquired Sonny Gray, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Jaime Garcia, Garrett Cooper, and cash in exchange for Tyler Clippard, Ruben Tejada, Tyler Webb, and minor leaguers Dustin Fowler, Blake Rutherford, Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, Ian Clarkin, Dietrich Enns, Zack Littell, and Tito Polo

Boston Red Sox (buyers)
Acquired Addison Reed and Eduardo Nunez in exchange for minor leaguers Stephen Nogosek, Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista, Shaun Anderson, and Gregory Santos

Tampa Bay Rays (buyers)
Acquired Lucas Duda, Sergio Romo, Dan Jennings, Steve Cishek, Trevor Plouffe, Adeiny Hechavarria, Michael Martinez, and minor leaguer Tobias Meyers in exchange for Tim Beckham, Erasmo Ramirez, minor leaguers Casey Gillaspie and Drew Smith, and cash

Baltimore Orioles (buyers, I think?)
Acquired Jeremy Hellickson, Tim Beckham, Ruben Tejada, and cash considerations in exchange for Hyun Soo Kim, minor leaguer Garrett Cleavinger, cash considerations, and lots of international bonus pool money

Toronto Blue Jays (sellers)
Acquired Nori Aoki, Nick Tepesch, and minor leaguers Teoscar Hernandez and Eduardo Pinto in exchange for Francisco Liriano, Jason Grilli, Miguel Montero, a player to be named later, and cash

AL Central

Cleveland Indians (buyers)
Acquired Joe Smith and cash in exchange for Michael Martinez and minor leaguers Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor

Kansas City Royals (buyers)
Acquired Melky Cabrera, Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter, and Brandon Maurer in exchange for Travis Wood, Matt Strahm, and minor leaguers A.J. Puckett, Andre Davis, and Esteury Ruiz

Minnesota Twins (buyers, then sellers)
Acquired Anthony Recker, Kevin Chapman, minor leaguers Tyler Watson, Dietrich Enns, and Zack Littell, cash, and international bonus pool money in exchange for Brandon Kintzler, Danny Santana, Nick Tepesch, and minor leaguer Huascar Ynoa

Detroit Tigers (sellers)
Acquired Jeimer Candelario, minor leaguers Dawel Lugo, Isaac Paredes, Jose King, and Sergio Alcantara, and a player to be named later or cash in exchange for J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, and Alex Avila

Chicago White Sox (sellers)
Acquired Tyler Clippard, Mark Lowe, Jean Machi, minor leaguers Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, Ryan Cordell, Casey Gillaspie, A.J. Puckett, Tito Polo, Bryan Flete, Andre Davis, Matt Rose, and future considerations in exchange for Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Melky Cabrera, Dan Jennings, Anthony Swarzak, and cash

AL West

Houston Astros (buyers)
Acquired Francisco Liriano in exchange for Nori Aoki and minor leaguer Teoscar Hernandez

Seattle Mariners (buyers, kinda)
Acquired David Phelps, Erasmo Ramirez, Marco Gonzales, and cash in exchange for Steve Cishek, Casey Fien, Mark Lowe, Jean Machi, and minor leaguers Tyler O'Neill, Brayan Hernandez, Brandon Miller, Pablo Lopez, and Lukas Schiraldi

Los Angeles Angels (sellers)
Acquired Nick Franklin and minor leaguer Luis Madero in exchange for David Hernandez and a player to be named later

Texas Rangers (sellers)
Acquired Jason Grilli, Joely Rodriguez, minor leaguers Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, Brendon Davis, and Tayler Scott, a player to be named later, and future considerations in exchange for Yu Darvish, Jonathan Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Sam Dyson, minor leaguer Eduard Pinto, and future considerations

Oakland A's (sellers)
Acquired Blake Treinen, minor leaguers Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, Sheldon Neuse, Jesus Luzardo, and Jeferson Mejia, and cash in exchange for Sonny Gray, Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Trevor Plouffe, and Adam Rosales

NL East

Washington Nationals (buyers)
Acquired Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler, Howie Kendrick, Ryan Raburn, and cash in exchange for Blake Treinen, minor leaguers Sheldon Neuse, Jesus Luzardo, McKenzie Mills, and Tyler Watson, international bonus pool space, and future considerations

Miami Marlins (sellers)
Acquired minor leaguers Merandy Gonzalez, Ricardo Cespedes, Brayan Hernandez, Brandon Miller, Pablo Lopez, Lukas Schiraldi, Braxton Lee, and Ethan Clark in exchange for A.J. Ramos, David Phelps, and Adeiny Hechavarria

New York Mets (sellers, mostly)
Acquired A.J. Ramos and minor leaguers Stephen Nogosek, Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista, and Drew Smith in exchange for Addison Reed, Lucas Duda, and minor leaguers Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes

Atlanta Braves (neither)
Acquired Matt Adams, Danny Santana, Kevin Chapman, minor leaguer Huascar Ynoa, and cash in exchange for Jaime Garcia, Anthony Recker, minor leaguer Juan Yepez, and cash

Philadelphia Phillies (sellers)
Acquired Hyun Soo Kim, Casey Fien, minor leaguers McKenzie Mills, Seth McGarry, Garrett Cleavinger, J.D. Hammer, Alejandro Requena, and Jose Gomez, cash, and international bonus pool space in exchange for Jeremy Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Pat Neshek, Joaquin Benoit, Joely Rodriguez, and cash

NL Central

Chicago Cubs (buyers)
Acquired Jose Quintana, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila, minor leaguer Justin Hancock, and a player to be named later in exchange for Miguel Montero, Jeimer Candelario, Matt Szczur, minor leaguers Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Isaac Paredes, Bryan Flete, Matt Rose, a player to be named later, and either an additional player to be named later or cash

Milwaukee Brewers (buyers)
Acquired Jeremy Jeffress, Anthony Swarzak, Tyler Webb, and a player to be named later in exchange for Nick Franklin, Garrett Cooper, and minor leaguers Ryan Cordell and Tayler Scott

St. Louis Cardinals (sellers, but not really)
Acquired minor leaguers Tyler O'Neill and Juan Yepez in exchange for Matt Adams and Marco Gonzales

Pittsburgh Pirates (sellers)
Acquired Joaquin Benoit, minor leaguers Oneil Cruz and Angel German, and cash in exchange for Tony Watson and minor leaguer Seth McGarry

Cincinnati Reds (sellers)
Acquired Scott Van Slyke and minor leaguer Hendrik Clementina in exchange for Tony Cingrani

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers (buyers)
Acquired Yu Darvish, Tony Watson, Tony Cingrani, and cash in exchange for Sergio Romo, Scott Van Slyke, and minor leaguers Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, Brendon Davis, Oneil Cruz, Angel Guzman, and Hendrik Clementina

Arizona Diamondbacks (buyers)
Acquired J.D. Martinez, David Hernandez, and Adam Rosales in exchange for Dawel Lugo, Jose King, Sergio Alcantara, Jeferson Mejia, and Luis Madero

Colorado Rockies (buyers)
Acquired Jonathan Lucroy and Pat Neshek in exchange for J.D. Hammer, Alejandro Requena, Jose Gomez, and a player to be named later

San Diego Padres (neither)
Acquired Travis Wood, Matt Strahm, Matt Szczur, and minor leaguer Esteury Ruiz in exchange for Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer, and minor leaguer Justin Hancock

San Francisco Giants (sellers)
Acquired Sam Dyson and minor leaguers Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos in exchange for Eduardo Nunez and future considerations


Indians Bring Back Joe Smith

Indians Get: Joe Smith (3-0, 3.28 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 51/10 K/BB, Age 33)
Blue Jays Get: Thomas Pannone (8-1, 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 120/28 K/BB at High Class A and AA, Age 23)
Samad Taylor (4 HR, 19 RBI, .300 AVG, 4 SB, 133 wRC+ at Class A Short Season, Age 19)

One year after he was traded to the eventual World Champion Cubs at the deadline, Joe Smith has again been dealt, this time to the team they beat in the World Series, the Indians. In what is bound to be a heated race between Cleveland and Kansas City, the Indians have stocked up, now putting together what might be the best bullpen in baseball. Andrew Miler (1.52 ERA, 0.73 WHIP), Cody Allen (2.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), and Bryan Shaw (2.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) already form a three headed monster at the back of that bullpen, and Smith (3.28 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) will only make it better. He actually played for the Indians from 2009-2013, so he's familiar with the city and stadium. He's in the midst of another great year, striking out 35.4% of the batters he has faced while walking just 6.9%. He'll be a free agent after the season and carries a career 2.95 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

Thomas Pannone gained some exposure earlier in the year when he started off with 34.2 consecutive scoreless innings at High Class A Lynchburg and AA Akron (54.2 if you include the end of 2016), and while he hasn't been untouchable with Akron, he's been pretty good. After going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP over five starts with Lynchburg, he is 6-1 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 14 starts in Akron, striking out 81 and walking 21 in 82.1 innings. The 6' lefty just turned 23 in April and could be a back-end starter for the Jays in the near future. Samad Taylor is a little farther off from the majors, having been drafted in the tenth round out of a California high school in 2016. Reaching Class A Short Season Mahoning Valley this year, Taylor is slashing .300/.328/.467 with four home runs, showcasing an aggressive approach but a quality bat. He just turned 19 in July, so he has plenty of time to develop, and with the way young Blue Jays hitting prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have taken off this year, this could be a great situation for Taylor.

Dodgers Bolster Bullpen With Tony Watson

Dodgers Get: Tony Watson (5-3, 3.66 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 10 SV, 35/14 K/BB, Age 32)
Pirates Get: Angel German (1-0, 1.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7 SV, 37/14 K/BB at Class A, Age 21)
Oneil Cruz (8 HR, 36 RBI, .240 AVG, 8 SB, 79 wRC+ at Class A, Age 18)

For the second straight season, the Pirates traded a top reliever, and the Dodgers will gladly take Tony Watson. Right now, Luis Avilan is the only left handed reliever in the LA bullpen with Grant Dayton hurt, so Watson fits right in to the plan. Unfortunately, Watson's career is going in the wrong direction, with his ERA jumping from 1.63 in 2014 to 1.91 in 2015, then 3.06 in 2016 and 3.66 in 2017. He's been giving up more hits, walking more, and seeing a drop in his strikeout rate, but he's still an effective reliever with a history of success that will get the job done in Los Angeles. He'll be a free agent after the season, holding a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP for his career.

The Pirates got two decent, Class A prospects for two months of Watson, including breakout pitcher Angel Guzman. The 21 year old put it all together at Class A Great Lakes, posting a 1.91 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 21 relief appearances, striking out 37 and walking 14 in 33 innings. Standing 6'4", he's projectable and could add velocity when he fills out. He's certainly on the right track. Also going over to Pittsburgh is Oneil Cruz, an 18 year old shortstop who is holding his own in Class A. In 89 games, he's slashing .240/.293/.342 with eight home runs: not great, but credible given his age and the pitcher-friendly nature of the Midwest League. Personally, I'm a fan of Cruz, and I think his upside is higher than people realize. He's still growing into his body, standing 6'6" but listed at a skinny 175 pounds, and he may not be done growing taller. Despite the growth spurt (he was 6'3" when he signed in 2015), he has been able to hit in full season ball against older competition, and he could develop into a star third baseman if everything clicks right. Don't overlook Cruz.