Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Thoughts on Orioles Prospects Alex Wells and Cole Billingsley

I had the opportunity to watch four games at Arthur Perdue Stadium this summer, where the Baltimore Orioles' low-A affiliate, the Delmarva Shorebirds, play. It's not a particularly talented team, but two players caught my eye and I figured I'd write about them.

Alex Wells: 11-5, 2.45 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 109/10 K/BB, Age 20
Fastball: 45. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 60. Control: 70. Command: 60.

2016 second round pick Matthias Dietz was supposed to the top pitching prospect on the Shorebirds, but a young lefty named Alex Wells has blown past him. Signed at 18 years old in 2015 out of Australia, he made his American debut in 2016, putting up a very solid 2.15 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 13 starts for Aberdeen in the New York-Penn League, striking out 50 and walking just nine in 62.2 innings. Promoted up to Class A in 2017 not long after his 20th birthday, he has elevated his stock more than any player in the Orioles' system this year. Through 24 starts, he has a 2.45 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a ridiculous 109/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 136 innings.

Wells is a 6'1" left hander, sitting in the 88-90 range with his fastball, spinning a below average curveball, and tossing an excellent changeup. He manages to get outs via excellent control and blossoming command, which make all three pitches play up. You can see the control playing out right there on the stat sheet, walking 3.8% of the batters he faced in 2016 and a minuscule 1.9% this year. He doesn't walk people. His command is coming along very nicely, as he has had no problems moving his fastball up, down, in, out, and around the zone, and he can even spot his curveball and changeup to specific regions of the strike zone. Of course, he's just 20 years old, so he still misses spots, and with his mediocre fastball and curveball, he'll have to continue to improve in that area as he moves through the minors. The curveball, which sits in the low 70's, has good shape, and can really drop if he gets on top of it, has the potential to become an average pitch if he can add power and consistency to it. Together with the control and command, Wells could become a #4 starter and a rare pitching prospect success story for an Orioles team that hasn't quite gotten what it wanted out of Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, and Hunter Harvey.

Cole Billingsley: 3 HR, .277/.344/.360, 107 wRC+, 27 SB, 89/39 K/BB, Age 23
Hit: 50. Power: 35. Run: 60. Field: 65. Throw: 50.

Unlike Wells, Billingsley is unlikely to ever be an impact player for Baltimore, but he caught my eye at the top of the Shorebirds' lineup and was my favorite player to watch this summer. The 23 year old was drafted in the 19th round out of the University of South Alabama in 2016 after slashing .315/.385/.396 with three home runs and 64 stolen bases over three seasons in Mobile. At Aberdeen in the New York-Penn League last season, he slashed a respectable .286/.353/.375 over 53 games, swatting three home runs and stealing 14 bases while only being caught once. This year, he has been a good table-setter for Delmarva, slashing .277/.344/.360 with three home runs and 27 stolen bases over 110 games, adding 22 doubles and a pair of triples. Let's look into what the left fielder has to offer.

The 5'10", 165 pound Billingsley will never be a power hitter, instead relying on a clean swing, great defense, and solid baseball instincts to move him up the ladder. He's old for the South Atlantic League, having turned 23 in May while Braves prospect Cristian Pache has put up similar stats in the same league despite still being 18 years old. However, Billingsley's age doesn't work entirely against him, as his advanced instincts have allowed him to compete despite a lack of tools. He has struck out in 18.7% of his plate appearances and walked in just 8.2%, which doesn't scream "polished hitter," but I do like his approach at the plate. His strikeouts have been more due to a tendency to chase with two strikes than due to a lack of overall strike zone judgement, and he will take his walks if he can stay in control of the count. He laces line drives to all field, and though he'll never have any significant home run power, he can put the ball in the gaps and let his plus speed do the rest. The speed also plays well on defense because he gets excellent jumps in left field, regularly making very difficult plays look routine. Even without a great arm, he's a plus defender, one that could certainly help a major league team if his bat can come along. Overall, he's not likely to make it to the major leagues, but his combination of instincts and speed make him a very fun player to watch and one that could work his way into a fourth outfielder role if everything comes together. At 23, it has to come together soon for the former 19th rounder.

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