2021 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

This is a really interesting draft for the Rockies because they are really leaning on their development here. None of their early picks are anywhere close to finished products, with all requiring significant development in one way or another to reach their lofty ceilings. It will be an interesting ride for them with a hit and miss track record with prospects, but they're clearly trusting their system here to get these guys right and bring out the best in themselves. In a vacuum, I think third rounder McCade Brown would be my favorite pick, but he'll require a lot of work and I'm not bullish on their ability to get him right so I'll note seventh rounder Evan Shawver as my favorite for this system. They did focus on the battery, drafting seven pitchers or catchers in a row after first round outfielder Benny Montgomery.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-8: OF Benny Montgomery, Red Land HS [PA]. My rank: #13.
No park amplifies offensive tools, and even defensive tools for outfielders, quite like Coors Field, and Benny Montgomery has them in spades. Perhaps the most physically gifted player in the class, Montgomery is hoping to combine freak athleticism with a strong work ethic for a long, successful big league career. He shows true plus raw power from an ideal 6'4" frame, flinging the barrel through the zone with tremendous force matched by very few in this class. Once he puts the ball in play and it's not over the fence, he shows blazing speed that could beat all but maybe a select few from this draft class in a foot race. And in the outfield, when he's not tracking down fly balls on the other side of the zip code, he'll show off a plus arm that stops runners dead in their tracks. It's a physical package that doesn't come around every draft, perhaps a bit like Garrett Mitchell from 2020 but right handed. Really, the only drawback in Montgomery's profile is his hit tool, which happens to be an extremely important one. The Harrisburg-area native has a choppy swing that can look pieced together at times, leading to swing and miss issues when his hitch makes him late on a fastball. There are some pitch recognition questions as well, sometimes getting out in front of breaking balls and rolling them over. He did clean up his swing a bit this spring and showed moderate improvement with that hit tool, and Rockies officials are confident that his tireless work ethic, combined with their development system, will help him iron out those issues. If he can, this guy could put up a 40-40 season at Coors with a ceiling of peak Aaron Judge but faster. Committed to Virginia, he instead signed for $5 million, which was roughly $180,000 below slot value, and he has four singles in twelve at bats so far in the ACL.

2-44: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State. My rank: #75.
There may be no nationally-known player in this draft for which opinions range quite as wide as they do as for Jaden Hill, who ranked #24 at Baseball America, #36 on MLB Pipeline, #75 on my board, #79 at Prospects Live, and outside the top 100 or even top 150 on some other individual boards I've seen. Hill was a well-known prospect in high school, but ended up at LSU and saw his stock explode with video game numbers over his first two seasons, albeit in a small sample size (0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP). Heading into the 2021 season, he was a bona fide top ten prospect in the class that had a chance to pitch his way into the Pirates' organization as the first overall pick with a strong spring. In his first two seasons in Baton Rouge, the southwest Arkansas native flashed a sinker up to 98-99, a plus changeup that had been his bread and butter for a while, and a rapidly improving slider that was flashing plus-plus at its best. Unfortunately, 2021 was an absolute disaster, as he was sporting a 6.67 ERA and a 25/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings when he walked off the field during an April 2nd start against Vanderbilt in considerable pain. Unfortunately, our worst fears were confirmed when it was announced he would undergo season ending Tommy John surgery, and now it's hard to know what to make of the young man's future. He showed the same big velocity that made him famous, but hitters picked up the sinker out of his hand and hit him hard when he left it over the plate. Perhaps more importantly, the slider that had showed signs of becoming one of the best breaking balls in the draft had completely backed up, failing to even elicit average grades from evaluators. The changeup maintained its plus movement, but without the other two pitches to play off, it couldn't hold his stat line together. The 6'4" righty is a very strong, physical kid who played quarterback at Ashdown High School in Arkansas, but he's sustained numerous injuries playing other sports and has never been on the mound for long stretches at a time. You have to question the durability at this point and whether he'll ever be able to provide 150 innings a year in a big league rotation. However, you absolutely cannot write him off as a potential impact relief arm or even a closer. Sinkers may be going out of style when they're thrown in their typical low 90's range, but turbo sinkers in the mid to upper 90's are still in and the Rockies can look to Zack Britton (albeit a right handed version) as someone who has found plenty of success that way. If Colorado can piece Hill back together, helping him get more consistent with that slider as well as his fastball location, they'll have an impact arm on their hands regardless of his eventual role. If the nagging injuries turn out to just be growing pains from being a multi-sport star and he recovers successfully from Tommy John surgery, he still has every chance to be a top of the rotation starter. He signed for full slot value at $1.69 million.

CBB-68: LHP Joe Rock, Ohio. My rank: #80.
I always found Joe Rock a tough one to pin down to a certain region on my board, whether that was in the second round range or outside the top one hundred. It's a pretty interesting profile, one that could end up developing in any number of ways. Rock was unremarkable as a freshman (5.19 ERA, 41/37 K/BB against ordinary competition) and redshirted his sophomore year, but came out showing hugely improved stuff in the fall of 2020. He carried that over for the most part into 2021, where he put up a 2.33 ERA and a 117/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, albeit again against a pretty ordinary schedule. The 6'6" lefty can get up to 96 early in his starts then settles into the low 90's as his starts progress, sometimes going a tick below that later in the spring. He adds a sweepy slider that looks above average when it's located well, and his changeup shows nice drop that should play really nicely off his other two pitches as he continues to refine his feel for it. It's a tough angle for hitters because Rock from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot, while his height enables him to get down the mound and release the ball out in front. The low slot also puts a unique movement pattern on his stuff, giving the fastball more run and sink and making the hitter have to think more horizontally. The Pittsburgh-area native also has plenty of projection in his huge frame and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, so even if his fastball was in the upper 80's at times this spring, his loose operation promises more velocity to come. The age is a big positive as well, as he's young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. Now with all the signs pointing to him continuing to improve, I'm not entirely sure how much ceiling he truly has, as sinkerballers are getting hit harder nowadays and he lacks the plus putaway pitch (at least for now) that he'll need to be more than a #3 starter, especially with fringe-average command. Rock signed for full slot value at $953,100.

3-79: RHP McCade Brown, Indiana. My rank: #58.
This one is absolutely fascinating to me, and McCade Brown has a chance to be the best pitcher to come out of this Rockies draft class if they develop him right (and he was the highest ranked on my board anyways). Brown was a complete non-factor over his first two seasons at Indiana, throwing just 6.2 innings but allowing eleven earned runs while walking thirteen over six games (three starts). He completely turned it around over the summer and kept that momentum through fall practice and into the first half of the season, though he was a bit inconsistent later on. Overall, he posted a 3.39 ERA and a 97/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, highlighted back to back gems against Rutgers and Penn State to start the season in which he tossed fourteen innings and allowed just one run on seven baseunners while striking out 28. At his best, the central Illinois native can be absolutely untouchable, showing a fastball up to 96 as well as an absolute hammer of a curveball and a tight, late slider. Here is some fall video, which captures him at his best. Now there's still a lot of work to do. The 6'6" righty improved his command from non-playable to fringe-average, but it was exposed to be safely below average over longer stints this spring. His stuff wasn't always at its best, either, sometimes losing a touch of velocity or seeing his breaking balls back up a bit. Brown is very young for the class, not turning 21 until more than a month after the draft, and given how far he's come in such a short period of time it's natural to have some bumps in the road. That's what the Rockies will tell themselves as they work to refine his delivery, build strength, and overall just get him to that best version of himself more often than not. There's a ton of upside here and I'm really interested to see how he turns out. Brown signed for slot value at $780,400.

4-109: C Hunter Goodman, Memphis. My rank: #110.
Last year, the Rockies drafted a glove first high school catcher named Drew Romo in the comp round, but he's off to a hot .328/.361/.461 start with the bat so far at Low A Fresno this summer. They'll give him a bat-first counterpart in Hunter Goodman, and the two could work their way up together and eventually work in tandem as long term catchers in Colorado. Goodman has put up tremendous numbers at Memphis, slashing .323/.388/.638 with 42 home runs and a 124/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games for his career, including a .307/.401/.678 line and a career-high 21 home runs this spring. This is a big power bat that has never had any trouble tapping it in games, even as an underclassman in the elite Cape Cod League in 2019 when he blasted eight home runs in 43 games. The power comes from all the strength he packs into his 6'1" frame in addition to the leverage he's able to produce and his willingness to attack hittable pitches. Now, even though he never had a power drought at any point in his amateur career, he is fairly raw as a hitter. The Memphis-area native shows a pretty swing in batting practice, but it can get choppy in games and he doesn't always get his best swing off. He's also been extremely aggressive throughout his career, walking at just a 4.2% rate over his first two years at Memphis and just 1.8% on the Cape. That improved in 2021, when he bumped his walk rate up to 12.4%, but he still struck out at a career-high 21.9% rate, simply working his way into deeper counts rather than seriously improving his pitch selection. Behind the plate, Goodman's actions remain fringy, and while his strong arm and the possible coming of robot umpires gives him a chance to stick there, I personally feel as though the bar for catcher defense is or should be elevated at Coors Field where pitchers really need to trust their catchers. If he has to move to first base, it immediately becomes a pretty boom or bust profile. No matter what the strikeout and walk numbers are, you absolutely can't deny the numbers and the consistency of his in-game power at Memphis, especially from a catcher, so we are talking the upside of a legitimate power hitting starting catcher if he makes the transition well. Goodman signed for $600,000, which was $67,000 above slot value, and he's hitting .333/.375/.467 through five games in the ACL.

6-170: C Braxton Fulford, Texas Tech. Unranked.
The Rockies didn't have any hometown picks this year, so the closest we'll get is by heading down to the high plains of West Texas, where we get Texas Tech catcher Braxton Fulford, a Lubbock native. Even though it's in Texas, Lubbock is barely farther from Denver as it is from Houston, so we'll roll with it and call it a stretch of a semi-hometown pick. Fulford has been a staple behind the plate for the Red Raiders for four years now, and he had his best season yet in 2021 by slashing .264/.395/.590 with 14 home runs and a 54/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Unlike Hunter Goodman, Fulford really stands out for his work behind the plate. He's extremely agile back there and can get back and forth to block balls in the dirt, then pop up quickly with a lightning fast transfer to show off his above average arm and nail runners trying to take a base. His energy back there is contagious and pitchers love working with him, something that will be very important in a place like Coors Field. Previously a light hitting glove-first guy, he exploded for a career high 14 home runs this spring after totaling five in 117 games over his first three seasons, and now that outlook has changed a bit. It still remains to be seen whether he'll make enough contact to tap that power in pro ball, having struck out at a 24.5% rate this spring, but if he can he does have some upside as a starter given his defense. More likely though, he'll probably end up a glove-first backup that can ambush mistake pitches out of the park. Fulford signed for $280,000, which was $16,400 below slot value, and he has one hit in five at bats so far in the ACL.

7-200: LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati. My rank: #140.
Evan Shawver entered the spring as a favorite sleeper among Midwest area scouts and data-driven scouts alike, and while he didn't quite go bust in 2021, he didn't quite build on his promise either. Shawver had a rough freshman season before turning it around as a sophomore, then settled in with a strong if not flashy junior season by posting a 2.72 ERA and a 49/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings. Just before the draft, he did make a late push to get some "flash" into his profile by winning Cape Cod League pitcher of the week honors in late June on the heels of back to back scoreless six inning starts in which he struck out 22 of the 48 batters he faced. Shawver may be undersized, but he doesn't lack in stuff with a low 90's fastball that usually tops out around 94 but has gotten up to 97 in short stints, coming in with high spin rates and a low release height that give it great riding life. He adds an above average to plus slider and an average changeup, all of which he locates well with solid average command. The 6' lefty faces durability questions because of his skinny frame and the fact that he missed some time this spring with nagging injuries while his delivery is moderately high effort. I think the national baseball media put too much into that and him underrated a bit (unranked on MLB Pipeline top 250, #387 on the Baseball America 500, #262 on the Prospects Live top 600), and he has a good chance to be a very useful #3 or #4 starter if the Rockies can pack a little more strength in there. The Cleveland-area native signed for full slot value at $231,100.

8-230: OF Robby Martin, Florida State. My rank: #133.
As with a lot of other players in this class, I find Robby Martin to be interesting as well. Coming into the season, he reminded me a bit of where JJ Bleday was pre-junior season (though if you'll remember, Bleday was not considered a top of the draft prospect at that point), with maybe a half grade less on all of his tools. Like Bleday, he was an all fields, line drive hitter that had grown into significantly more power since high school, but hadn't necessarily learned to use it. In Bleday's junior season in 2019, he very much figured it out, but Martin didn't quite had the same success, slashing .260/.352/.451 with eleven home runs and a 56/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. The Tampa native has added a ton of strength to his 6'3" frame and can really put a charge into a baseball, but in games he still employs that all fields, line drive approach. Unlike Bleday, who showed a keen eye at the plate and a knack for working counts and drawing walks, Martin was a bit more prone to swing and miss and whiffed at a 22.4% rate this year. He has shown a knack for finding the barrel in the past and did hit .317 with a .408 on-base percentage over his first two years at Florida State, so the Rockies are betting that his down 2021 was just a placeholder while he got ready for his breakout in pro ball. Hitting in an environment like Coors (plus hitter-friendly minor league parks like Fresno and Albuquerque) could provide that extra little push to get him lifting and turning on the ball consistently, hopefully without leading to more swing and miss. If he gets there, this could be a productive every day bat for the Rockies, though his outfield defense is just ordinary and he profiles in a corner with average speed. He signed for $200,000, which was $16,300 above slot value, and he's hitless through seven at bats in the ACL, though he has drawn two walks.

9-260: RHP Cullen Kafka, Oregon. My rank: #204.
Cullen Kafka drew some moderate interest in the 2020 draft and likely would have gone if the draft were full length, but he had never shown enough consistency to really fit in the top five rounds. He pulled it together this year and turned in by far his best performance with a 3.00 ERA and an 84/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, including starting the season by allowing just one run in his first four starts. Kafka has a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 96, adding a significantly improved slider that now profiles as above average. The 6'4" righty mainly pitches off those two and has improved his strike throwing to fringe-average, though he does tend to sail the ball at times. If Kafka wants to stick in a rotation long term, he's going to have to take a step forward with his fringy changeup as well as get that command up just a tick. The Bay Area native has an ideal pitcher's frame and gets down the mound well, but my guess is he's eventually pushed back to the bullpen with a bit of a high effort delivery. There, he can focus on the fastball and slider and worry less about pinpoint command. He signed right at slot value for $158,100.

18-530: RHP Bryce McGowan, Charlotte. My rank: #94.
The Rockies spent much of their unused bonus pool money here, hitting Bryce McGowan with sixth round money to get him into their system. McGowan brings a ton of upside, but will require some work. While the stuff has long intrigued scouts, he's never quite put it together at Charlotte, and this year was his best with a 4.84 ERA and a 99/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his power fastball and can reach back for 98-99 in short stints, and the pitch plays up because he gets great ride on it. His secondary pitches are trending up to catch his fastball, with a slider that is flashing plus at times as well as a changeup that flashes above average. It seems like the Raleigh-Durham native is slowly growing into his loud stuff, with command that has ticked up towards fringe-average, but he still hasn't quite learned to harness it and can be very inconsistent. His loose delivery does work well. Slightly undersized at a generous 6'1", he still has plenty of very interesting puzzle pieces that the Rockies will try to put together. If he can get a bit more consistent with those secondary pitches and show average command, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. McGowan signed for $300,000, of which $175,000 counts against the Rockies' bonus pool.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (April update)

Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11)
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP.
As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.

RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8)
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP.
Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.

RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3)
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP.
Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23)
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games.
I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28)
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games.
Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.

OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12)
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.
2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games.
Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16)
This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.

RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29)
Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.

SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7)
We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.

A few other possibilities
RHP McCade Brown, Indiana
OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]
C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]

Updates on those mentioned last time

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP.
Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP.
It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games.
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26)
I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5)
Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten players to watch this college season

The 2021 college baseball season is about to kick off, which means our draft rankings are about to get thrown for a loop. Every year, some top prospects underperform, while others come from nowhere into the spotlight. Meanwhile, some players come into the season with very straightforward profiles. We know Kumar Rocker and Ty Madden are going to shove, and we know Adrian Del Castillo and Matt McLain are going to hit. Game to game, of course scouts will have an eye on everything, but for the most part they know what to expect. They want to make sure Rocker fills up the strike zone consistently, maybe hoping for a few more swings and misses on his fastball, you know, the normal stuff. We're hoping McLain can draw a few more walks, but again, we're not expecting to see anything unexpected.

This list is for ten players who have a much wider range of plausible outcomes in 2021. Whether that's due to injuries, inconsistency, or something else, all eyes will be on these players' every move as scouts try to determine just what kind of prospects they are. Of course, I have a couple dozen I'd like to include here, so this is far from as exhaustive as I'd like to be. If you're a college baseball fan, here are ten players to keep an extra close eye on as the season gets underway.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
You had to know this one was coming. A top 100 prospect coming out of Ashdown High School outside Texarkana in 2018, Jaden Hill battled injuries in 2019 and the pandemic shut him down in 2020, so he has just 21.2 collegiate innings to his name. That said, those 21.2 innings were absolutely electric. The 6'4" righty showed up on campus with a big fastball/changeup combination, with the former now reaching the upper 90's and the latter looking like a plus pitch. He's since improved a devastating slider that flashes plus-plus at times, and he's been developing a shorter cutter to give hitters yet another look. On top of it all, he's shown the ability to harness and command his stuff despite its rapid improvement and his lack of consistent innings. Pitch for pitch, Hill has some of the most electric stuff in the class, but of course we know scouts would be much more confident if he showed he could hold it over a full season. 2021 will be his chance to do so, and if his stuff is as loud in July as it is in February, Hill could very well go first overall. He's that good.

OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
2019-2020: 9 HR, .301/.389/.470, 13 SB, 74/33 K/BB in 75 games.
Arkansas is known for its high powered offenses, producing big bats like Brian Anderson, Andrew Benintendi, Dominic Fletcher, Heston Kjerstad, and Casey Martin in recent years, with Benintendi and Kjerstad going in the top ten picks. As of now, Franklin fits more in the back of the first round or early second, but he absolutely has the ability to propel himself into the Benintendi/Kjerstad range. After holding his own as an SEC freshman in 2019 (6 HR, .274/.362/.419), he was off to a hot start in 2020 (3 HR, .381/.467/.619) and will look to build on that in 2021. Though he stands just 5'11", the Kansas City native has plus raw power from the right side that he can tap with explosive hands. He needs to add some loft to his swing, but Franklin already hits screaming line drives that regularly find holes and carry out over the fence anyways. He's also a plus runner who will stick in center field, adding to his upside. The biggest thing scouts want to see from the young outfielder will be plate discipline, as he can get over aggressive and swing through or chase quality stuff at times. That's the biggest thing holding him back right now, but even small improvement in that area likely lands him in the first round. Take a big step forward in that regard, and Franklin has the tools to challenge Jud Fabian, Adrian Del Castillo, Alex Binelas, and Matt McLain as the top hitter in the college class.

OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt
2019-2020: 7 HR, .300/.349/.590, 4 SB, 24/4 K/BB in 37 games.
I see numerous parallels between Christian Franklin and Isaiah Thomas, though the latter finds himself perhaps half a round behind his SEC counterpart at this point due to less of a track record. Currently more of a second rounder, Thomas, not to be confused with the NBA all star of the same name, could rocket into the first round with a strong spring. His explosive right handed bat can send baseballs traveling out of the park at high speeds, and that plus raw power has played in his small sample of games so far. The South Florida native also shows above average speed and a strong arm in center field, all a product of a wiry, athletic 6'2" frame. The main drawback in Thomas' game at this point is an extremely aggressive approach, one that has limited him to just four walks in 37 games but to this point has not impacted his production. If he can even show moderately improved patience in 2021, he has the chance to fly well into the first round with the strong performance he's capable of. Thomas has a chance to be a legitimate five tool player.

RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 IP.
Ryan Cusick is one of my favorite arms in this class. A product of Avon Old Farms School in Connecticut that produced George Springer and Orioles 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick has been up and down during his time at Wake Forest. He was hittable as a freshman, then as a sophomore he struck out 41.7% of his opponents but also walked 17.5%, both extremely high numbers. His game is very inconsistent in all respects, but when he's on, he's on. At best, the 6'6" righty can touch 97-98 with his fastball and sit in the mid 90's for innings at a time, putting great ride on the ball that makes it nearly impossible to square up. He drops in a slider that flashes legitimate plus, as well as a developing changeup and curveball. However, the fastball velocity has been known to dip closer to 90 at times, while the slider regularly flattens out into a below average pitch. The Massachusetts native showed well below average command in the brief 2020 season, but it looked closer to average in a brilliant summer turn through the Coastal Plain League, so it's hard to know what to make of his strike throwing ability. For all of those reasons, scouts will be keeping a very close eye on each of Cusick's starts, watching how his velocity holds, how consistently he can snap off that slider, what his command looks like, and whether he can take a step forward with his changeup or curveball. There are many moving parts here, but if he can get the most out of his exceptional natural ability, we could be looking at a top ten pick later on. Or conversely, Cusick could push himself out of Day One contention entirely.

RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)
2019-2020: 8-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106/45 K/BB in 99.1 IP.
Here we get to one of this fall's fastest risers. Looking at his stat line above against a tame MAC schedule, Sam Bachman doesn't look special, but I assure you he is. The Indianapolis-area native previously worked with a low 90's fastball, but he's been bumping the mid 90's more often and reportedly hit triple digits in fall practice. That pitch plays up further because of his unique data, crouching down in his delivery and coming from a low three quarters angle to create an extremely low release point without actually having to go sidearm. From there, its high spin rates give it immense ride up in the zone, making it one of the best fastballs in the class. He also adds a short, cutter-like slider that plays above average and flashes plus, and his fading changeup gives him a third above average pitch. Bachman's command has been steadily improving from average to above average to even plus at times, maximizing his ability to tunnel his pitches off each other. His fall blew some evaluators away, so they'll want to see him maintain that uptick in stuff and command in the spring. If the stocky 6'1" righty can maintain even close to what showed, it's a legitimate first round projection.

RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State
2019-2020: 1-1, 3.70 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 43/22 K/BB in 31.2 IP.
Here's yet another really interesting one. Eric Cerantola is a huge, 6'5" Canadian right hander with some crazy data behind his stuff. On the surface, he does not look like a Day One prospect, with a scattered track record of 31.2 moderately successful innings. The Toronto-area native has a very slow, deliberate delivery with very inconsistent arm slots and command, giving the impression that he doesn't actually have much feel for his lanky limbs or delivery. However, this is one of the more talented right arms in the class. While working in the low 90's as a starter, Cerantola dialed his fastball up to 98 in fall practice and the pitch plays up with tough angle. He also adds a curveball that flashes true plus, a low to mid 80's hammer with ridiculously high spin rates, and that's the pitch that makes him so interesting. Add in what could be an above average changeup, and you have some of the best stuff in the class from a 6'5" righty. This spring, evaluators will be watching to see how he holds up under a full time starting role. That means both the stuff, including velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball, and command, the latter of which he has no track record of consistency with. If Cerantola can prove he can start, he suddenly becomes a first round candidate, though for now he fits better in the second.

OF Levi Usher, Louisville
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 G.
Levi Usher comes to Louisville from Kirkwood CC in Iowa, where he obliterated opposing pitching to the tune of a .409/.493/.538 line in 53 games. He continued just the same for the Cardinals, where he hit .411/.484/.571 in 16 games. However, two uninspiring runs through the Northwoods League in 2019 and 2020 (combined .261/.337/.373) temper excitement just a little, leaving evaluators ready to watch his 2021 at bats very closely. Usher has a broad base of above average tools, showing nice pure hitting ability, speed, and power. The hitting ability and speed (47 SB between Kirkwood and Louisville) have played up exceptionally well against weaker opponents, and there is enough strength packed into his 6' frame to project at least average power. To this point, he has shown an aggressive approach that limits his walks and causes some minor swing and miss concerns, so tightening that up will help scouts feel more comfortable his approach will hold up in pro ball. Additionally, the so-so performance in the Northwoods League raises slight concerns about how his power will play with wood bats, but unlike the approach questions, there's not much he can do about that one with metal bats at Louisville aside from just hit for more power. With his lack of track record at the Division I level and especially his lack of track record in conference play, Usher's 2021 could go a lot of different ways. Sort of like Kameron Misner a couple years ago, though Misner ended up slumping through SEC play.

RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia
2020: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12/2 K/BB in 11.1 IP.
Georgia pitching is on a strong draft run over the last three years. In 2019, it was Tony Locey (third round) and Tim Elliott (fourth round), and in 2020, it was Emerson Hancock (first round) and Cole Wilcox (third round). In 2021, Georgia could have two more, with Ryan Webb and draft-eligible sophomore Jonathan Cannon. Cannon worked in long relief on that deep Georgia pitching staff last year, and looked brilliant in five appearances. He's a lanky, 6'6" right hander with some of the louder stuff in the SEC, touching 96-97 with his fastball and adding an above average slider and a potentially plus changeup. Additionally, he flashes solid-average command, which is pretty impressive for a young lanky pitcher. The Atlanta-area native has all of the ingredients necessary to be an impact starting pitcher, but he has to put it together consistently in 2021 in order to go in the first round. It's one thing to flash three above average pitches and average command in 11.2 innings of long relief, but it's another to hold that over 5-6 innings a start for a full season. If he does, we have a first rounder. He won't turn 21 until after the draft, making him one of the younger college arms available, yet he's already looked fairly advanced in his small sample.

LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati
2019-2020: 5-8, 5.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 104/57 K/BB in 84.1 IP.
For the most part, Kansas State's Jordan Wicks is regarded as the best college lefthander in the class, with Michigan's Steven Hajjar, Mississippi State's Christian MacLeod, and Texas' Pete Hansen making up the group right behind him. However, those who value pitch data would through another name into that ring, Cincinnati's Evan Shawver. The Cleveland-area native was not a big name recruit and struggled as a freshman (7.15 ERA, 69/48 K/BB), but he's quietly built up his draft stock in the time since then and put up a 1.59 ERA and a 35/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings in 2020, including five hitless innings against Florida State. Shawver is an undersized lefty at a listed 6', 175 pounds, so he makes up for his lack of size in other ways. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he can reach back for 95-97 and the spin rates on the pitch make it play up. He also drops in a potentially plus slider with late movement and an above average changeup, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. Shawver has refined his command considerably since making it to campus, now comfortably average, something that will be very important as his size brings relief questions. If the little lefty can hold his command and stuff over a full season in 2021, he has a chance to shed those relief questions and move into the first round range.

OF John Rhodes, Kentucky
2020: 1 HR, .426/.485/.672, 1 SB, 5/2 K/BB in 17 games.
Out of everyone on this list, John Rhodes is probably the one we know the least about. With pitchers, we can still watch them pitch in small samples and see their stuff, but hitting is reactive, and Rhodes hasn't put up a big enough sample for evaluators to get a strong feel for his ability. That's why his 2021 will be watched so closely. The Chattanooga native arrived on campus without a ton of fanfare, but ripped .426/.485/.672 with twelve extra base hits and just five strikeouts in seventeen games before the shutdown in 2020. He kept hitting in the Northwoods League over the summer (.378/.495/.500 in 27 games), and with an August birthday, he's one of the youngest draft-eligible sophomores in the class. Rhodes isn't huge at a listed 6', 200 pounds, but he finds the barrel extremely easily from the right side with a disciplined approach that will always enable him to post high on-base percentages. So far, his power has played mostly to the gaps and it's not clear how much over-the-fence pop he'll develop, but he could provide some clarity on that in 2021. The development of his power, as well as whether his exceptional on-base ability holds up against that gauntlet of SEC pitching, will determine whether Rhodes can crack the top fifty picks this summer.

Others

LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan): 6'5" lefty that has flashed plus stuff, but has limited track record after an ACL injury wiped out his true freshman season. Huge ceiling if he performs up to his potential.

C Luca Tresh (North Carolina State): Power hitting catcher trending up after a huge fall, will take over for 2020 first rounder Patrick Bailey behind the plate in Raleigh. Scouts want to see him make enough contact to tap his big power as well as continued progress in his glove.

OF Robby Martin (Florida State): Outfielder that has gotten bigger at FSU, growing into power but still has a line drive/opposite field approach. He's not quite as advanced as JJ Bleday was entering his junior season two years ago, but Martin really reminds me of Bleday at that time, before the big power breakout.

RHP Tommy Mace (Florida): Senior college starter who was arguably the best undrafted college player last year, betting on himself for another go around. Reportedly has seen the uptick in stuff scouts had been waiting for since his high school days, needs to prove it over a full season to maintain prospect status.

RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina): Another top undrafted arm, huge 6'6", 240 pound right hander with a fastball that can creep into triple digits. Also shows a big curve and advanced changeup, but has battled injuries at ECU and never put together a full season.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #11

The Nationals will pick eleventh overall in this year's draft, the highest they've picked since selecting Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011. Rendon was the fourth in an extremely successful run of first round picks, including Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th overall, 2009), and Bryce Harper (1st overall, 2010). Since Rendon, the Nationals have not had overwhelming success in the first round, with perhaps Erick Fedde (18th overall, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th overall, 2016) being the only ones to make any kind of impact on the big league club so far. Lucas Giolito (16th overall, 2012) has become a star, but with the White Sox.

Recent first round picks:
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)
2016: SS Carter Kieboom, Walton HS, GA (28th overall)

There's a clear trend with the Nationals, a more traditional organization that likes big college pitchers and isn't afraid of a little injury history. Cavalli, Denaburg, Fedde, Giolito, and Rendon all had significant injury history when the Nationals drafted then, and Romero was healthy but saw his stock drop due to serious off-field makeup concerns. To this point, Kieboom has been a moderate success, and the jury is still out on Romero, Rutledge, and Cavalli. Meanwhile, Denaburg has been limited to just 20.1 innings with a 7.52 ERA in complex ball, and while at 21 years old he still has a chance to reclaim his prospect status, that one may end up being a bust. Now, a lot will definitely change between February and July, but heading into the spring season, here are ten names for Nationals fans to track.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
This one fits the Nationals' drafting style to a tee. First, we can look at the relatively meaningless geographic parallels, as the Houston-area native follows Houston picks Rendon, Romero, and Rutledge, and would also give the Nationals a second consecutive Big 12 arm after Cavalli. More importantly, Ty Madden is a very traditional 6'3" college righty except for a bit of a funky arm action, something I'd suspect only further endears him to an organization not afraid of injuries. Madden sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 96-97 in games and topping out around 99 in bullpen sessions, putting fairly unique downward angle and run on the ball that makes it difficult to lift. He adds a relatively inconsistent slider that is usually at least average but can flash true plus, and his changeup has been a more stable offering for him that plays consistently above average and flashes plus as well. His command has come along nicely, walking just four of 97 batters in 2020 (a 4.1% rate, down from 13% in 2019), though the Nationals' brass will want to see him hold that command over a full season. If things break right for him and he stays healthy (or perhaps even if he doesn't), I'm sure the Nationals will take a very hard look at the potential #2 starter.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP.
Richard Fitts has a little bit more to prove than Madden, having pitched mostly out of the bullpen so far at Auburn, but he has a chance to don the Curly W as well. Another big, 6'3" righty, Fitts impressed evaluators at fall practice in 2020 and pushed his way from a second or third round projection to a legitimate first round contender. In the fall, he worked in a starting role where his fastball began consistently hitting the mid 90's, playing up due to the tough crossfire angle he puts on the ball. The Birmingham-area native adds a downer slider and an above average splitter, and he lands all three pitches for strikes consistently. He looked the part of a future mid-rotation starter in the fall, and if he can hold that profile in the spring, a traditional organization like the Nationals could pounce very early. Watch to see if his velocity and command hold.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.
Like Fitts, Steven Hajjar has a lot to prove in 2021, but he has the chance to establish himself as a prototypical college lefty ace. Currently on the fringes of the first round conversation, Hajjar has thrown just twenty innings in his college career due to a 2019 ACL tear and the 2020 shutdown. 6'5" left handed pitchers will grab the attention of scouts traditional and progressive alike, and that's why teams love his upside. His fastball sits in the low 90's when he's on, while his slider and changeup both flash plus as well. However, we're yet to see any kind of proven consistency, especially considering the Massachusetts native's stuff was down a bit in the fall, his fastball occasionally dipping into the upper 80's and his secondary pitches flattening out. Given that, the fact that he's very young for the class (won't turn 21 until August) really helps his case, and scouts believe that his youth only adds to his upside. If Hajjar comes out this spring holding more consistent fastball velocity and taking a step forward with his command, which is presently below average, he could fly off the board. From there, it would be easy to project plus stuff and an impact starter ceiling on him.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
Jaden Hill, like Hajjar, has barely been on the mound in NCAA play, but that's about where the similarities start and end. While Hajjar is from the Boston suburbs, Hill hails from Ashdown, a small Arkansas town near Texarkana. And while Hajjar might fit more in the early second round if the draft were today, Hill is already firmly in the top ten discussion. The big, 6'4" righty is a former high school quarterback armed with a fastball that has touched the upper 90's in short stints, and his secondary pitches are well ahead of Hajjar's as well. The slider flashes double plus at its best, rendering hitters completely helpless as it dives all the way across the plate, and his changeup has long been a weapon in its own right since his high school days. He recently added a cutter as well, giving him a four pitch arsenal that makes him one of the toughest at bats in college baseball. On top of it all, he's actually proven to be a solid strike thrower, something that usually isn't the case with that kind of elite stuff. Of course, the injury issues are the biggest concern here, as elbow soreness and collarbone surgery (stemming from a high school football injury) kept him off the mound for much of 2019 and the shutdown stopped him in 2020. For that reason, he has not been able to prove his stuff or command can hold over a full season, and it gives him a wide range of outcomes. If Hill comes out and stays healthy for a full season, with his stuff looking as sharp in June as it did in February, there is no chance he makes it to the Nationals at pick #11 – he could legitimately be gone in the first five picks in that case. If his stuff dips early in the season and doesn't come back, then the Nationals might pass on him. But if the stuff stays sharp and he deals with continued nagging injuries, he could perfectly fit the Nationals' draft strategy of targeting high upside starting pitchers with injury concerns. In fact, it really wouldn't be too dissimilar a pick to Cavalli last year.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
As far as traditional bats go, Matt McLain is right at the top of the list. A first round pick out of a Los Angeles-area high school in 2018, McLain didn't sign with the Diamondbacks and instead headed to UCLA, where he struggled to a .203/.276/.355 line as a freshman. However, his stock has since recovered and more, with a hot start to the 2020 season (.397/.422/.621) and an even hotter run through summer ball (.436/.536/.773). McLain is a bit undersized at 5'11", but has exceptional feel for the barrel that enables him to spray line drives around the field and could end up giving him 15-20 home run power in time. Though he makes very easy contact most of the time, he can expand the zone against breaking balls and that leads to some minor strikeout concerns. Unless he makes a dramatic shift in his aggressive approach, McLain will likely never draw a ton of walks, but he should hit for a high enough batting average to put up strong on-base percentages. A premium athlete, his plus speed helps him on both sides of the ball and should keep him at shortstop in the long run. Improved plate discipline in 2021 could have him off the board before the Nationals have a chance to make a selection, but his present profile fits right into the Nationals' drafting philosophy.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.
If the Nationals decide to go with a college bat, Alex Binelas makes just as much sense as Matt McLain. While he wasn't nearly as famous as McLain at Oak Creek High School in the Milwaukee suburbs, his massive freshman season (14 HR, .291/.383/.612) rocketed him into the national spotlight, but a hand injury in the second game of his sophomore season means that freshman season is all we have to go off of. Binelas brings a lightning quick left handed swing that produces plus raw and game power, sending balls over the fence or to the gaps with consistent triple digit exit velocities. Despite its explosiveness, that swing can get choppy at times, leading to some swing and miss (19.8% K rate as a freshman). It's not a major concern at this point considering he was a freshman in the ACC, but it's something he'll have to cut down on in his junior year, especially in conference play. If he does, he might already be off the board before the Nationals pick at #11, but positional questions could work in Washington's favor if they cause him to slip a little. A third baseman at Louisville, his cannon arm gives him a chance to stick over there, but he's a somewhat choppy defender and might be stretched in the shifting era. The upside in his bat is so great that teams in the top ten picks might be willing to risk a move to first base, but continued swing and miss questions could keep him around for the Nats.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
Another traditional bat for the Nationals to consider is Colton Cowser, who was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs (in addition to top 2019 picks JJ Goss and Matthew Thompson). Cowser might have been the fourth best prospect on that team when he graduated, but he had a massive freshman season (.361/.450/.602) and landed on the US Collegiate National Team. Despite an unspectacular sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), he remains one of the top bats in the college class with premium leadoff potential. Cowser is a true plus hitter, showing a combination of excellent knowledge of the strike zone with excellent bat to ball skills, which he proved with the US CNT. For now, his swing is geared more for line drives than fly balls, but evaluators see his athletic 6'3" frame and think that he could grow into average power, perhaps more if he starts trying to lift the ball. With plus speed and the ability to stick in center field, he may not need to do so in order to become an impact player at the big league level. If Cowser hits in 2021 like he did in 2019, he could fit right in with the Nationals at pick #11.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
We've hammered home the point that the Nationals are traditional and love pitching, and Andrew Painter fits that to a tee. The Fort Lauderdale native has an extremely projectable 6'6" frame with a full, well rounded arsenal that he can command. Painter's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 95-96 without much effort, but promising more as he fills out his frame. He spins a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, both of which are consistently at least average while flashing above average regularly. With an above average changeup as well, Painter can attack you in a variety of ways. His extremely easy delivery enables him to hit spots as well as anyone in the high school class, and it also raises his floor considerably. Many scouts have likened him to Mick Abel, the first high school pitcher taken in 2020, who lasted until the Phillies at pick #15. It would probably take Painter stepping forward with one of his breaking balls to get the Nationals to bite on him over a guy like Madden or McLain, but if he does, he has as good a chance to land in Washington as anywhere else. The one thing that might hold the Nationals back is Mason Denaburg, their most recent first round high school pitcher, who has struggled to stay healthy since going 27th overall in 2018. Painter won't come cheap, either, holding a commitment to Florida.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]
Right now, Painter is the top high school pitcher in the country, but a lot can change before July. Jackson Jobe was known as more of a hitter a year ago, but a loud summer rocketed him into the first round as a right handed pitcher. The 6'2" convert to pitching already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95-96 just like Painter, but his secondary pitches are ahead of his counterpart. His slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, coming in with immense spin rates and tight, late bite. His curveball and changeup both flash above average as well, and he's an athletic kid that fills up the strike zone. Given that he's still new to pitching, Jobe could continue to rise with a strong spring and more consistency, with the potential to become a legitimate big league starting pitcher. If he does, the Nationals could bite as early as pick #11, though one drawback is age, with the Oklahoma City native set to turn 19 in July. Committed to Ole Miss, he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore, which could raise his asking price further.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]
We'll round it out with the most famous name in the prep class, shortstop Brady House. Scouts have been excitedly waiting for the Georgian to become draft eligible, as he brings a long track record of hitting against premium pitching. However, House's 2020 summer was just a bit more inconsistent than some scouts had hoped for, and a combination of that and prospect fatigue have allowed Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, and perhaps even James Wood to overtake him in the prep bat rankings. Still, House brings a lot to the table. He shows easy plus raw power from the right side, power which he tapped consistently in games going back to when he was an underclassman. At times in 2020, his swing got out of whack as he tried to show off his pop and it came at the expense of his hit tool. The pure hitting ability is there if House trusts himself, and if he proves his summer was just a little blip, he might be gone before the Nationals pick. House is also a solid athlete with a chance to stick at shortstop with some hard work, but most scouts see him sliding over to third base and focusing on his big bat. Additionally, with a June birthday, he's relatively young for the class. Hailing from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, House has a commitment to Tennessee in hand, so if he slips too far past the Nationals with an uneven senior season, he could pull a Dylan Crews and head to school.

A few other possibilities
RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
RHP Mason Black, Lehigh
OF Jud Fabian, Florida
SS Khalil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC]
OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the SEC

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on October 6th

Last time, we started off with the Top Draft Prospects in the Big 12, which is my home conference now that I’m based in Dallas-Fort Worth. Shifting eastward, we’ll take a look at the SEC Top MLB Draft Prospects, the best conference in college baseball year in and year out, and 2021 is no exception. Like the Big 12, we’re definitely pitcher-heavy here due to the simple fact that it’s easier to show a velocity bump or uptick in stuff over a small sample than it is to show improvement in plate discipline or power, but there are definitely more bats here than in the Big 12.

The SEC boasts arguably the top two prospects in the draft in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and for some, Jud Fabian makes it the top three. The usual suspects in Vanderbilt and Florida are absolutely overflowing with talent, but the SEC is a strong conference from top to bottom and every team has players to watch. Mississippi State in particular has a really interesting group of arms that all offer something a little different. Without further ado, here are the top 2021 draft prospects in the SEC.

1. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 255 lbs. Born 11/22/1999. Hometown: Athens, GA
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.

No surprises here, Kumar Rocker is the top prospect in the SEC. And in the entire draft, for that matter. We all know Rocker’s story; a clear first round talent coming out of the Georgia high school ranks in 2018, he knew he hadn’t yet hit his ceiling and headed north to Vanderbilt for school. His freshman year went about as well as humanly possible, of course highlighted by his 19 strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the super regionals, and that success continued into his sophomore season when he struck out 28 batters in 15 innings of work. No pitcher in the country can come close to matching his combination of stuff, upside, polish, and track record.

So what makes Kumar Rocker so great? We’ll start with the stuff. The big right hander is listed at 6’4″ and 255 pounds, and he looks it for sure. The fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can hit 97-98 pretty easily, and it’s tough to pick out out of his hand. His bread and butter is a wicked, easy plus slider that dives under bats late and has made many a seasoned college hitter look silly. When he winds up a regular on Pitching Ninja in the majors, that pitch will be the reason. Lastly, it’s easy to overlook his changeup behind that power fastball/slider combination, but even his third pitch is regularly above average with great sinking action down in the zone.

Usually, these big, hard throwing underclassmen with explosive stuff need a little refining, but Rocker is actually pretty polished. His delivery features a lot of movement, but it’s smooth, coordinated, and athletic and he repeats it very well. That enables him to be an above average strike thrower, and with an extremely competitive, bulldog mentality on the mound, he pounds the zone and goes right after hitters. Of course, when you’re talking about the potential first overall pick, you’re obligated to nitpick, and the nitpicks on Rocker are that his control is ahead of his command, the command can be a little inconsistent, and his delivery might need just a little smoothing out. Still, nothing is glaring, and just a little more consistency with his command could easily make him a true ace.

2. RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6′, 195 lbs. Born 4/21/2000. Hometown: Summit, NJ
2020: 2-0, 1.72 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 15.2 IP.

Like his rotation-mate, Jack Leiter was a highly touted high school prospect and could have gone in the first round in 2019 out of the New Jersey high school ranks. Because he was extremely old for a high schooler and older than many college freshmen at the time, he’s draft eligible already as a sophomore, and it took just one start to establish himself in the very top tier of the class. In his first collegiate start, he took the mound against South Alabama and struck out twelve over five no-hit innings, then he cruised to a strong start against Evansville before a so-so outing against TCU. With just 15.2 innings under his belt, he’s already one of the most polished pitchers in the class.

Leiter can’t quite match Rocker’s stuff, but there is still plenty to like. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and tops out around 95 early in games, but even though he’s on the smaller side at six feet tall, it plays well above its velocity due to elite extension for his size. Teams increasingly look for that long extension that puts flat plane on the ball, and Leiter gets it. His best secondary pitch is a potentially plus curveball with tremendous depth, albeit with low to mid 70’s velocity. He’s begun working in a slider more that’s an average pitch for now, but he can rattle off some good ones and given his feel for pitching, it’s easy to envision him getting consistently above average with that pitch. With low to mid 80’s velocity, it also gets nice velocity separation from his curveball. Lastly, he flashes above average with his changeup as well but doesn’t use it as much.

That’s quite the repertoire, but what makes it really play up is his advanced feel to change speeds and spot his pitches. As we did with Kumar Rocker, we have to nitpick a little bit just because we’re talking about the very top of the draft here, and that’s just how it goes. You have to love Leiter’s feel for his craft, and he certainly has all the intangibles to succeed at the major league level. But we are talking about a fastball that often dips into the 90-91 range and a curve that can get down to 71-72, which isn’t exactly power stuff from a six foot pitcher, and he might have a little less margin for error than guys like Rocker. Additionally, the “burden of proof” is higher for command pitchers than for guys with loud stuff, and Leiter has thrown just 15.2 innings so far (with eight walks) at the collegiate level – he’ll have to prove over a full season that his command is all that it’s cracked up to be. If he does, he has a great chance to challenge for that 1-1 spot.

3. OF Jud Fabian, Florida

Bat: R. Throw: L. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL
2019-2020: 12 HR, .250/.368/.466, 9 SB, 63/41 K/BB in 73 games.

While Jack Leiter is extremely old for his class, Jud Fabian enrolled early at Florida in 2019 and finds himself as one of the youngest juniors in his class, more than five months younger than the sophomore Leiter. He won’t turn 21 until well after the draft, and he’ll have multiple years of SEC play under his belt by then. Despite his age, he held his own as an 18 year old freshman in 2019, slashing .232/.353/.411 with seven home runs over 56 games against a tough SEC schedule. Fabian was off to an even hotter start against Florida’s non-conference slate in 2020, slashing .294/.407/.603 with five home runs in 17 games, including one off of the Diamondbacks’ 32nd overall pick, Slade Cecconi. Combine that with a pair of strong summers on the Cape in 2019 and in the Florida League in 2020, and Fabian has more amateur track record than any teenager in the country.

With Fabian, we’re not talking about any one loud tool. As you would expect given all the hitting he’s done as a teenager, his natural feel for the game is what stands out the most and it helps his tools, which are all at least average across the board, play up. The Ocala native has a very disciplined approach at the plate, recognizing balls from strikes and improving in his ability to recognize offspeed pitches as well. However, he does need to improve his raw bat to ball skills, because even if his pitch selection is advanced, he tends to swing and miss within the strike zone a bit more than you’d expect. At a listed 6’2″ and 195 pounds, he has a nice balance of power and athleticism in his frame, and at this point he regularly flashes above average raw and game power from a loose, balanced swing. As he continues to refine his hit tool (which I am separating from his “eye tool”), there is a chance he ends up with plus power down the road if everything breaks right.

An above average runner, Fabian’s feel for the game translates to his defense as well and he profiles to stick in center field long term, which in turn makes his offensive profile look even better. Given his youth, it’s not hard to dream on him continuing to improve at the plate and tapping into his true five tool potential, in which case he could project for 20-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at his ceiling. Profiling easily within the top ten picks and getting plenty of looks within the top five picks at this point, teams will want to see big production against SEC pitching in 2021, which could solidify him as the top position player prospect in college baseball. Fabian’s current competitors in that regard are Miami’s Adrian Del Castillo, UCLA’s Matt McLain, and Louisville’s Alex Binelas.

4. RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 235 lbs. Born 12/12/1999. Hometown: Ashdown, AR
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.

“Who cares about track record – I’m buying for the future. If the stuff is there, the stuff is there!” If you find yourself nodding in agreement with that statement, then Jaden Hill is the pitcher for you. Hill’s big fastball and projectable offspeed stuff made him a well-known draft prospect coming out of high school near Texarkana, but he opted to head down to LSU and prove himself instead of going pro. As a freshman, he missed time due to elbow soreness and later collarbone surgery, the latter stemming from his days as a high school quarterback, and was limited to just ten (albeit impressive) innings. Fully healthy as a sophomore, Hill was untouchable in 11.2 shutout innings in which he struck out 17 and allowed just one (1!) hit, and that included non-conference outings against Indiana and Texas.

Let’s talk about stuff. Jaden Hill has pitched mostly in relief to this point, where he can easily touch 98 with his fastball, but in longer outings he can still sit comfortably in the mid 90’s. His go-to pitch is a rapidly improving slider that has added a ton of power since high school, showing devastating late bite as it dives across the plate. His changeup was actually ahead of the slider when he arrived in Baton Rouge, and it’s an above average pitch as well. Lastly, as he has gotten more confident in his slider, he’s been tinkering with a cutter that could split the difference in his power fastball/slider combination.

Hill’s delivery is clean, his frame is big and durable, and his arm speed is certainly there. He has also shown solid-average command in his short stints on the mound, bringing together the full package. Of course, the big question is proving it all, because 21.2 dominant innings as an underclassman is not enough to inspire confidence that his game will hold together under the rigor of a 200 inning MLB season. There is nothing in his profile to suggest he can’t, but until he does, it has to be a question. Scouts will for sure be bearing down on his starts this spring, and if the stuff is as loud in June as it was in February and the command holds together, then we likely have a top ten pick and potentially the most exciting arm to come out of LSU since Aaron Nola.

5. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’4, 220 lbs. Born 12/17/1999. Hometown: Hudson, FL
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.

Continuing the theme that has become apparent here, Gunnar Hoglund was yet another highly touted arm coming out of high school in the Tampa area, and the Pirates actually drafted him 36th overall. He didn’t sign, and now has the opportunity to beat that high selection in 2021. Hoglund was solid as a freshman in 2019, putting up a 5.29 ERA and an effective 53/14 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough schedule, then devoured his opponents in 2020 with a 1.16 ERA and a 37/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 23.1 innings. At this point, he’s safely behind the big four prospects listed ahead of him here, but his floor is as high as any.

Hoglund’s selling point is his command, which is perhaps the best in the SEC given that he’s had more time to prove it than Jack Leiter. The fastball only sits around 90, but not for a lack of arm strength. He can touch 92 with very minimal effort, looking like he’s just playing catch, but when he does let loose, he has been clocked as high as 96. That easy, natural delivery enables Hoglund to hit his spots very consistently, with well above average command dating back to his high school days in Florida. Additionally, the 6’4″ right hander ditched a loopy 12-6 curveball for a tighter slider that has shown above average potential, giving him a second weapon with continued refinement. Lastly, there is a solid changeup as well, but Hoglund mainly pitches off his fastball.

On the surface, Hoglund looks like a one trick pony with plus command and average stuff. But having that 95-96 in his back pocket inspires a lot of confidence that his average velocity will tick up, and even a small improvement into perhaps the 90-93 range in 2021 will really help his draft stock. If he can refine either his slider or changeup into a true 55 grade pitch, that would help significantly as well. But even with his present stuff, I think the 6’4′, 220 pound righty really appeals to teams looking for a safe bet they know can be a #4 starter at the big league level.

6. RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 205 lbs. Born 7/19/2000. Hometown: Alpharetta, GA
2020: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12/2 K/BB in 11.1 IP.

Unlike many of the other names on this list, Jonathan Cannon wasn’t necessarily famous on the high school circuit, but it took just 11.1 innings as a freshman at Georgia to push himself into the first round conversation. The lanky, 6’6″ right hander allowed just six baserunners and did not allow a run, striking out twelve and capping it off with 4.2 strong innings against Georgia Tech. A year after sending Emerson Hancock (Mariners) and Cole Wilcox (Padres) off to multi-million dollar bonuses, Georgia will give the draft-eligible sophomore the chance to step into the rotation and earn his own hefty payday.

For now, Cannon is mostly about projection, but not completely. Long and lanky at 6’6″, he has plenty of room to further fill out his huge frame, but his velocity has already begun creeping up. After topping out around 91-92 in high school, he’s now comfortably sitting in the low to mid 90’s and topping out around 96, with his long arms and natural extension putting nice run on the ball as well. His slider has sharpened into an above average pitch with nice horizontal bite, and his changeup is very advanced for an underclassman and gives him a potential plus pitch. The Atlanta-area native is very coordinated despite his lanky stature and fills up the strike zone consistently with solid-average command, giving even more projectability.

Like Jaden Hill a few slots ahead of him, he now has to go out and prove he can hold his stuff over a full season in the rotation, but also like Hill, he hasn’t given us any reason to believe he can’t. If Cannon is still brushing 94-95 and throwing strikes in June after 70+ innings, we’ve got a first rounder on our hands.

7. OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 185 lbs. Born 11/30/1999. Hometown: Overland Park, KS
2019-2020: 9 HR, .301/.389/.470, 13 SB, 74/33 K/BB in 75 games.

Despite losing sluggers Heston Kjerstad (Orioles) and Casey Martin (Phillies) to the 2020 draft, Arkansas returns a ton of firepower to its lineup in 2021, and perhaps no player is more exciting than Christian Franklin. He hit the ground running with a .274/.362/.419 line and six home runs as a freshman in the SEC, then cranked it up to .381/.467/.619 with three home runs against a weaker non-conference slate in 2020. Heading into 2021, it’s hard to project exactly what Franklin will turn into, but there’s no questioning his talent and ability to perform and the Kansas City-area native could develop in any number of directions.

Listed at 5’11” and 185 pounds, Franklin is not the biggest guy in the world, but he packs a lot of punch into that frame. His quick, powerful right handed swing produces more power than you’d expect, and he has tapped that power consistently everywhere he has gone. It’s not necessarily the plus, light tower power of his former teammate Kjerstad, but evaluators really like the way the ball jumps off his bat. He’s an above average runner as well that has a chance to stick in center field with a little more refinement, giving him another avenue in which to impact the game and making his offensive profile look more impressive.

For now, the major question is plate discipline, as he has struck out at a 25.3% rate during his Razorbacks career. It’s not really fair to judge a player’s plate discipline on his freshman year in the SEC, but for now, that’s all we really have (he did strike out six times in three games in Arkansas’ only tough weekend series in 2020). If Franklin comes out in 2021 with a cleaner K/BB ratio and less swing and miss, he could rocket up boards as a potential 20-20 threat.

8. LHP Jonathan Childress, Texas A&M

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 205 lbs. Born 1/22/2000. Hometown: Forney, TX
2019-2020: 2-1, 1.98 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 25/5 K/BB in 27.1 IP.

Jonathan Childress is yet another player following the three major themes on this list: a pitcher (6/8 so far) who could have been drafted high out of high school (5/8) but who lacks much of a track record so far in college (4/8). Childress was off to a hot start as a freshman in 2019 but went down with Tommy John surgery pretty quickly, then looked great in his brief return in 2020. Together, it only amounts to 27.1 innings, but he’s struck out 25 to just five walks and allowed just 25 baserunners in total. In his seven career appearances, the toughest lineups he’s had to face were Houston (2019) and Rice (2020), but there is a lot to like regardless.

The big lefty who grew up on the eastern edge of Dallas-Fort Worth makes for a very uncomfortable at bat. Coming from a crossfire delivery, he hides the ball very well and puts nice angle on the ball. His fastball velocity has fluctuated over the years, climbing as high as 94 in high school, but he didn’t maintain that velocity as the 2018 draft neared and since returning from Tommy John, he’s sat around 90 for the most part. Childress’ two plane curveball is his best and most consistent pitch, a plus breaker that he can backdoor for strikes and change the shape of for a different look. He also tosses a solid changeup, and in his small sample in college, he has shown the ability to command all three pitches very well.

Fully healthy now, he has a chance to really elevate his stock this spring simply by pitching how he’s capable of, and any uptick in velocity should send him moving up boards in a hurry. Aside from a lack of track record, there is no reason to believe Childress can’t be a mid-rotation starter.

9. RHP Tommy Mace, Florida

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 225 lbs. Born 11/11/1998. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2018-2020: 16-5, 4.37 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 145/55 K/BB in 179.1 IP.

Man, have I written about Tommy Mace a lot lately. Like so many names before him on this list, he was a very well-known draft prospect coming out of high school in 2017, but he opted to bet on his extreme projectability and head to Florida instead. Mace’s time in Gainesville has been a mixed bag so far, as he’s proven his durability and command but has not yet taken the “leap forward” that scouts have been hoping for.

After putting up a 4.84 ERA and a decent 17.4% strikeout rate over his first two years, he jumped out to a 1.67 ERA and a 24.1% strikeout rate over four starts in 2020, so he priced himself out of a possible second round selection to bet on himself once more. The Top member of the 2020 College Class to return to school, he immediately becomes the top senior-aged member of the 2021 class.

Mace’s fastball sits in the low 90’s and can hit 96, though it can be very straight and easy to pick up at times despite its solid velocity, so scouts would still like to see it tick up a little farther and get into the 94-95 range more often. He never really developed a true breaking ball, instead relying on a cutterish short slider that can be above average and miss barrels effectively. Mace’s changeup is solid average, giving him three pitches to work with, and his solid average to at times above average command makes it play up. His track record of filling up the strike zone really helps his stock as scouts wait for his stuff to tick up, though he’s set to turn 22 in November and without that tick up in 2021, he will project more as a #4 starter than a higher ceiling mid-rotation guy.

10. LHP Christian MacLeod, Mississippi State

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 225 lbs. Born 4/12/2000. Hometown: Huntsville, AL
2020: 4-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 35/6 K/BB in 21 IP.

Even after losing JT Ginn (Mets), Mississippi State has a whole slew of interesting arms to watch in 2021, none more advanced than lefty Christian MacLeod. He actually missed his entire true freshman season with pneumonia in 2019, but you wouldn’t know that by the way he came out of the gate in 2020. Over four starts that included some tough matchups including Oregon State, he was absolutely dominant with a 0.86 ERA, 35 strikeouts, and just 15 baserunners allowed in 21 innings. Heading into 2021, he’s looking to build off that and fully prove himself with a strong run through SEC competition.

Listed at 6’4″ and 225 pounds, MacLeod is a big guy that projects as a mid to back of the rotation starter. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but dipped into the upper 80’s later in his starts, which should be less of an issue as he gets further from pneumonia. The curveball projects as an above-average pitch, coming in with nice depth and very little hump out of his hand, making it hard to pick up. His changeup is a solid average pitch as well with some fade. Everything played up in the shortened 2020 season with his above-average command, and now he just has to go hold it over a full season and against SEC competition.

He also needs to answer the durability questions that stem from his inability to hold his fastball velocity, but that shouldn’t be an issue. At this point, Kansas State's Jordan Wicks is the consensus top lefty in the college class, but MacLeod has a very strong argument for #2 when put up against the likes of Steven Hajjar (Michigan), Jonathan Childress (Texas A&M, see #8), Pete Hansen (Texas), and Evan Shawver (Cincinnati).

Other Interesting Options

Alabama:

The Tide doesn’t quite dominate the SEC in baseball like it does in football, but there are a couple of interesting names to look out for from the program that brought us David Robertson, Alex Avila, and Jimmy Nelson. The biggest name here is New Jersey native Tyler Ras, who tossed 11.1 shutout innings in 2020 before the shutdown. The 6’4″ righty has plenty of arm strength, sitting in the low to mid 90’s and touching 97 in short stints at times, and he gets nice fade on his changeup as well. His slider can soften up and currently grades out around a 45, but when you add in his solid-average strike-throwing, that breaking ball is all his profile is really missing. Sharpening it into even an average pitch could pay big dividends for his stock this spring. Connor Shamblin is another arm with projection, though the 6’1″ righty isn’t as clean of a product yet. He sits in the low 90’s with his fastball and can touch the mid 90’s, adding a better slider than Ras as well as a decent changeup, but the Memphis native has a jerky deliver and very inconsistent control, which bottomed out with 26 walks in 29 innings on the Cape in 2019. It’s a relief profile for now, but he was filling up the strike zone better as a sophomore in 2020 and the stuff is there for an impact profile. Lastly, the Tide would really like to see T.J. Reeves break out, as the patient right-handed hitter possesses above-average raw power and impressive strength packed into a 5’10” frame. He had a standout summer in the Northwoods League in 2019 (.324/.412/.566, 10 HR) and is an above-average runner as well, and if he can just cut down on his swing and miss a little bit, he could be one of the better bats in this conference. The Birmingham native draws plenty of walks and could stick in center field.

Auburn:

They didn’t place any names in the top ten, but there are a few who could break in with strong seasons. Infielder Ryan Bliss is easily the top prospect here, coming off a hot 2020 in which he hit .377/.412/.597 with just five strikeouts in 18 games. Despite being listed at just 5’9″ and 165 pounds, Bliss has been able to make consistent hard contact around the field while showing some gap power from a loose swing. He’s an above-average runner who shows great feel for the game on both sides of the ball, likely fitting in as a long term second baseman/utility infielder. Steven Williams is Bliss’ opposite, returning after being draft-eligible in 2020. Williams has blasted 23 home runs while slashing .270/.384/.457 in his Auburn career, though he’s never quite put it together for long stretches at a time. His swing can get long at times and while he’s very patient, he also strikes out a lot as well. With a corner outfield profile, he’ll have to show he can hit consistently, probably profiling as a platoon bat. Richard Fitts is an interesting name for sure who could be a sleeper for 2021. The 6’3″ righty has projection on his average fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, showing some of the better command in the SEC. That command buys his stuff time to come along, and with a durable frame and delivery built for starting, he could break out this spring. Auburn would also like to see high-spin lefty Garrett Wade break out after coming in as a highly regarded recruit. I liked him a lot in high school due to his hard running fastball and pair of above-average breaking balls, but his command has been shaky at Auburn and we’re still waiting on that velocity bump. Learning to get a little more extension at release could help.

Arkansas:

As discussed in Christian Franklin’s writeup, the Razorbacks lost two big hitters to the draft in Heston Kjerstad and Casey Martin, but they got a nice surprise when catcher Casey Opitz went undrafted. He’s one of the best defensive backstops in college baseball that can absolutely shut down the running game, and his hot .302/.361/.509 start to the 2020 season really elevated his profile. However, aside from that 16 game stretch, he hasn’t done much hitting at any point, his good plate discipline being his only proven trait at the plate. Opitz will be nearly 23 when the draft rolls around, which is less than ideal, and how much he hits in 2021 will determine whether he’s a legitimate backup catcher or organizational depth. On the mound, Patrick Wicklander has a lot of interesting starter traits but is yet to completely put it together. His fastball has climbed as high as 95, but at times, it can also dip into the upper 80’s. The California native has a full array of secondary pitches, with a pair of breaking balls standing out for great depth. His stuff can lack power at times and with the fringe-average command, the 6’1″ lefty doesn’t quite have what it takes to make it as a starter just yet, but incremental steps forward in any part of his game could really boost his draft stock. Lastly, we’ve got a sleeper in Elijah Trest, a 6’3″ Texan with a fastball that reaches 95 and a curve that is really tough to square up. Trest really struggled with his command as a freshman in 2019 but was better in that regard in 2020, though he still gives off reliever vibes at this point.

Florida:

We’ll never make it through all the names on this incredibly talented Florida team, so let’s just talk about the ones who just missed the list. I’m personally fond of eligible sophomore Nathan Hickey, who like Jack Leiter is the age of a college junior. He put up an exceptional .311/.439/.622 line with four home runs and a 15/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games against Florida’s non-conference slate in 2020, showcasing big raw power from an explosive left-handed swing. He’s very patient and had no trouble making the transition from high school pitching, but his swing can get a little long and there is some swing and miss to be wary of. A fringy catcher defensively, he becomes a legitimate Day One prospect if he shows he can stick back there. On the mound, Ben Specht has a mid 90’s fastball, a downer slider, and a changeup that would play in just about any rotation in college baseball, but the returns of Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich mean he’ll have to really earn that spot. The command is so-so, but the 6’1″ righty has arm strength that doesn’t come around every day and he attacks the strike zone with a 59/19 strikeout to walk ratio in his Gators career. Sharpening his offspeed pitches would help him miss barrels in pro ball even when he misses spots. Speaking of Jack Leftwich, the 6’4″ righty flashes mid-rotation stuff with a low 90’s fastball, an above-average slider, and a solid changeup from an athletic frame, but his secondary stuff and command have been inconsistent and it led to him just missing out on the 2020 draft. Returning for 2021, he’ll be nearly 23 by the time the draft rolls around. 6’5″ righty David Luethje is a deep sleeper here, reaching the low 90’s with his fastball from a very easy delivery, flashing above average with his slider as well. He’s a decent strike-thrower who could break out at any time, though on this immensely deep Gator pitching staff, he’s struggled just to find innings, let alone land a rotation spot. Other names to watch for the Gators include Kendrick Calilao and Christian Scott.

LSU:

If you find yourself at Alex Box Stadium but miss Jaden Hill’s start, don’t worry. Landon Marceaux is a very different pitcher than Hill, but he has a chance to be a big-league starter with a fantastic baseball name. His fastball sits in the low 90’s, while he adds a solid slider and changeup as well as a usable curveball. Nothing is plus or even firmly above average, but he fills up the strike zone and mixes his pitches effectively, which makes everything play up. A bit undersized as a skinny six-footer, he lacks much projection and he’ll have to prove himself at every level, but there’s no question Marceaux knows how to pitch. In the lineup, keep your eye on Cade Beloso, a slugging first baseman who homered ten times as a true freshman in 2019. He derives his power from the brute strength in his left-handed swing, with the ability to put up great exit velocities. In order to prove to scouts his power will play in pro ball, he’ll need to get a little more patient at the plate and also shake off a mediocre Cape summer from 2019 (.222/.327/.300). As a first baseman only, that’s very important.

Mississippi:

Just missing the top ten was lefty Doug Nikhazy, who holds a career 3.12 ERA despite an undersized 5’10” frame. The Orlando native confidently pounds the strike zone with advanced pitchability that makes his fringy fastball (around 90), deep two-plane curveball, and average slider and changeup play up. There are bound to be evaluators that really like Nikhazy’s track record and feel for pitching, and an uptick in velocity would be huge. We also have a pair of interesting bats in Kevin Graham and Jerrion Ealy. Graham has 13 home runs over 68 games for the Rebels, but he needs to tighten up his strike zone judgment given his lack of defensive projection. Ealy is a sophomore who may become eligible due to the later draft date, but he’s currently busy making big plays as the football team’s running back. Packing a ton of strength into his 5’9″ frame, his game is raw and he has a lot to prove if he wants to be drafted in 2021. At his ceiling, Ealy could show an exciting package of power and speed.

Mississippi State:

Christian MacLeod may lead the post-JT Ginn pitching staff, but there is a lot of talent here beyond him. Will Bednar is a personal favorite of mine, a draft-eligible sophomore coming off an exceptional start to his freshman season (1.76 ERA, 23/6 K/BB in 15.1 IP). His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s but reaches 95-96 at his best, and he shows great feel for a slider, curve, and changeup, though none stand out as plus. With above-average command and a sturdy 6’2″ frame, any small uptick in secondary stuff could make Bednar a very coveted arm. A very different but very talented arm is Eric Cerantola, a 6’5″ Canadian righty who has struck out 43 but walked 22 over 31.2 innings so far. He has a low to mid 90’s fastball that has climbed as high as 98 in relief, adding a good curveball and a decent changeup. Cerantola utilizes a very easy, deliberate delivery to the plate, but he still struggles with command and repeating his arm slot. That leads to questions about his overall feel for pitching, which he can answer with a strong year in the rotation in 2021. We have sophomore-eligible two-way talent KC Hunt, though he didn’t bat in 2020 and only threw 1.2 innings. Another eligible sophomore is infielder Kamren James, who hit .308/.339/.423 in 2020 with a smooth swing that could add some power as he fills out his 6’2″ frame. He will want to get more direct with that swing but he’s a sleeper who could break out in 2021.

Tennessee:

The Vols didn’t place anybody in the top ten, but they have a ton of interesting players to watch. My favorite is shortstop Jake Rucker, who was off to a hot .339/.425/.581 start with three home runs in 2020. He’s growing into his 6’1″ frame and starting to tap some power with a very quick right-handed swing, helped by the fact that he possesses above-average bat to ball skills and doesn’t swing and miss much. If he can stick at shortstop, that’s full time starting a profile, though there is a chance he’s forced to third base. I like the direction his bat is trending. Opposite Rucker in the middle infield is Max Ferguson, who like Rucker was off to a hot start in 2020 with a .333/.462/.524 line with a pair of home runs and nine stolen bases. While Rucker is trending towards average power, Ferguson’s is more fringy and he gets his hits with a very disciplined approach and an above-average hit tool. He’s also a plus runner but figures to man second base long term. Moving to the mound, Jackson Leath was also off to a red hot start in 2020 with a 1.45 ERA and a 29/5 strikeout to walk ratio but went undrafted in the shortened event. He showcases a four-pitch mix headlined by a low to mid 90’s fastball that can touch 95-96. The 6’1″ righty’s slider and curveball flash above average and his changeup is an average pitch, though, with average command and some effort in his delivery, he might wind up in the bullpen unless he can get more consistent. We have Elijah Pleasants, a 6’5″ string bean who sits in the low 90’s with his fastball and adds a good changeup, but his slider lacks power and he hasn’t missed many bats at Tennessee. Camden Sewell is a projectable 6’4″ lefty with a strong track record in Knoxville (2.23 ERA, 48/23 K/BB), hovering around 90 with his fastball and adding a high spin curveball that misses plenty of bats. Any uptick in velocity for him would be huge.

Texas A&M:

After producing Asa Lacy in 2020 and putting Jonathan Childress onto the top ten here, the Aggies still have two more very interesting left-handed pitchers for the 2021 draft. Chris Weber is an aerospace engineering student who has a 3.02 ERA and a 98/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings in College Station, coming on the back of a fastball around 90, a big 12-6 curveball, and a solid changeup. He lacks a true strikeout pitch at this point and probably profiles as a back-end starter or long reliever, but the 6’4″ lefty has above-average command and pitchability that gives him a nice floor. Joseph Menefee has missed a lot of bats so far at Texas A&M, using a low 90’s fastball and an above-average slider to do the trick, but he’s been unable to break into that Aggie rotation so far and still needs to prove he can make his stuff play up in the rotation.

Vanderbilt:

As with Florida, there are too many names here to get through all of them, even after Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter ranked #1 and #2 on this list, respectively. Isaiah Thomas (not to be confused with the NBA all-star) just missed the list and would have probably ranked ~12th had I gone that far, holding a career .300/.349/.590 line with seven home runs so far in his Vanderbilt career. He has an explosive right-handed swing that makes the ball scream off his bat, a product of the wiry strength in his 6’2″ frame. The South Florida native is extremely aggressive at the plate and has walked just four times so far in 37 games, which will have to change if he wants to be drafted on Day One, but even with the hyper-aggressive approach, he makes contact at a decent clip. With above-average speed and the potential to stick in center field, that plate discipline is really all that’s standing in his way. Catcher CJ Rodriguez is a very different player, a draft-eligible sophomore from Southern California who hit .289/.370/.356 as a freshman but struck out just three times in twelve games. He has a very simple swing that can handle high-end pitching, though it lacks explosiveness and he doesn’t project to be more than a decent all-around hitter. Rodriguez’s value comes from his glove, showing not only the physical tools but the mental aptitude as well. His youth makes him a more attractive draft candidate than a guy like Arkansas’ Casey Opitz, and an uptick in offensive output will be big. Hugh Fisher was sixth to eighth round talent in 2020, but went undrafted after sitting out the season with Tommy John surgery. He struck out 46 batters in 34.2 innings in 2019 but also walked 21, showcasing big stuff but a questionable command. The 6’5″ lefty has hit 97-98 in relief with late-life and can drop in a plus slider, and once he comes back healthy in 2021, he could move quickly as a late-inning weapon. We also have talented bats like Tate Kolwyck, Dominic Keegan, and Matt Hogan who have struggled to find playing time in that deep, deep lineup.