This is a really interesting draft for the Rockies because they are really leaning on their development here. None of their early picks are anywhere close to finished products, with all requiring significant development in one way or another to reach their lofty ceilings. It will be an interesting ride for them with a hit and miss track record with prospects, but they're clearly trusting their system here to get these guys right and bring out the best in themselves. In a vacuum, I think third rounder McCade Brown would be my favorite pick, but he'll require a lot of work and I'm not bullish on their ability to get him right so I'll note seventh rounder Evan Shawver as my favorite for this system. They did focus on the battery, drafting seven pitchers or catchers in a row after first round outfielder Benny Montgomery.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-8: OF Benny Montgomery, Red Land HS [PA]. My rank: #13.
No park amplifies offensive tools, and even defensive tools for outfielders, quite like Coors Field, and Benny Montgomery has them in spades. Perhaps the most physically gifted player in the class, Montgomery is hoping to combine freak athleticism with a strong work ethic for a long, successful big league career. He shows true plus raw power from an ideal 6'4" frame, flinging the barrel through the zone with tremendous force matched by very few in this class. Once he puts the ball in play and it's not over the fence, he shows blazing speed that could beat all but maybe a select few from this draft class in a foot race. And in the outfield, when he's not tracking down fly balls on the other side of the zip code, he'll show off a plus arm that stops runners dead in their tracks. It's a physical package that doesn't come around every draft, perhaps a bit like Garrett Mitchell from 2020 but right handed. Really, the only drawback in Montgomery's profile is his hit tool, which happens to be an extremely important one. The Harrisburg-area native has a choppy swing that can look pieced together at times, leading to swing and miss issues when his hitch makes him late on a fastball. There are some pitch recognition questions as well, sometimes getting out in front of breaking balls and rolling them over. He did clean up his swing a bit this spring and showed moderate improvement with that hit tool, and Rockies officials are confident that his tireless work ethic, combined with their development system, will help him iron out those issues. If he can, this guy could put up a 40-40 season at Coors with a ceiling of peak Aaron Judge but faster. Committed to Virginia, he instead signed for $5 million, which was roughly $180,000 below slot value, and he has four singles in twelve at bats so far in the ACL.
2-44: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State. My rank: #75.
There may be no nationally-known player in this draft for which opinions range quite as wide as they do as for Jaden Hill, who ranked #24 at Baseball America, #36 on MLB Pipeline, #75 on my board, #79 at Prospects Live, and outside the top 100 or even top 150 on some other individual boards I've seen. Hill was a well-known prospect in high school, but ended up at LSU and saw his stock explode with video game numbers over his first two seasons, albeit in a small sample size (0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP). Heading into the 2021 season, he was a bona fide top ten prospect in the class that had a chance to pitch his way into the Pirates' organization as the first overall pick with a strong spring. In his first two seasons in Baton Rouge, the southwest Arkansas native flashed a sinker up to 98-99, a plus changeup that had been his bread and butter for a while, and a rapidly improving slider that was flashing plus-plus at its best. Unfortunately, 2021 was an absolute disaster, as he was sporting a 6.67 ERA and a 25/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings when he walked off the field during an April 2nd start against Vanderbilt in considerable pain. Unfortunately, our worst fears were confirmed when it was announced he would undergo season ending Tommy John surgery, and now it's hard to know what to make of the young man's future. He showed the same big velocity that made him famous, but hitters picked up the sinker out of his hand and hit him hard when he left it over the plate. Perhaps more importantly, the slider that had showed signs of becoming one of the best breaking balls in the draft had completely backed up, failing to even elicit average grades from evaluators. The changeup maintained its plus movement, but without the other two pitches to play off, it couldn't hold his stat line together. The 6'4" righty is a very strong, physical kid who played quarterback at Ashdown High School in Arkansas, but he's sustained numerous injuries playing other sports and has never been on the mound for long stretches at a time. You have to question the durability at this point and whether he'll ever be able to provide 150 innings a year in a big league rotation. However, you absolutely cannot write him off as a potential impact relief arm or even a closer. Sinkers may be going out of style when they're thrown in their typical low 90's range, but turbo sinkers in the mid to upper 90's are still in and the Rockies can look to Zack Britton (albeit a right handed version) as someone who has found plenty of success that way. If Colorado can piece Hill back together, helping him get more consistent with that slider as well as his fastball location, they'll have an impact arm on their hands regardless of his eventual role. If the nagging injuries turn out to just be growing pains from being a multi-sport star and he recovers successfully from Tommy John surgery, he still has every chance to be a top of the rotation starter. He signed for full slot value at $1.69 million.
CBB-68: LHP Joe Rock, Ohio. My rank: #80.
I always found Joe Rock a tough one to pin down to a certain region on my board, whether that was in the second round range or outside the top one hundred. It's a pretty interesting profile, one that could end up developing in any number of ways. Rock was unremarkable as a freshman (5.19 ERA, 41/37 K/BB against ordinary competition) and redshirted his sophomore year, but came out showing hugely improved stuff in the fall of 2020. He carried that over for the most part into 2021, where he put up a 2.33 ERA and a 117/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, albeit again against a pretty ordinary schedule. The 6'6" lefty can get up to 96 early in his starts then settles into the low 90's as his starts progress, sometimes going a tick below that later in the spring. He adds a sweepy slider that looks above average when it's located well, and his changeup shows nice drop that should play really nicely off his other two pitches as he continues to refine his feel for it. It's a tough angle for hitters because Rock from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot, while his height enables him to get down the mound and release the ball out in front. The low slot also puts a unique movement pattern on his stuff, giving the fastball more run and sink and making the hitter have to think more horizontally. The Pittsburgh-area native also has plenty of projection in his huge frame and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, so even if his fastball was in the upper 80's at times this spring, his loose operation promises more velocity to come. The age is a big positive as well, as he's young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. Now with all the signs pointing to him continuing to improve, I'm not entirely sure how much ceiling he truly has, as sinkerballers are getting hit harder nowadays and he lacks the plus putaway pitch (at least for now) that he'll need to be more than a #3 starter, especially with fringe-average command. Rock signed for full slot value at $953,100.
3-79: RHP McCade Brown, Indiana. My rank: #58.
This one is absolutely fascinating to me, and McCade Brown has a chance to be the best pitcher to come out of this Rockies draft class if they develop him right (and he was the highest ranked on my board anyways). Brown was a complete non-factor over his first two seasons at Indiana, throwing just 6.2 innings but allowing eleven earned runs while walking thirteen over six games (three starts). He completely turned it around over the summer and kept that momentum through fall practice and into the first half of the season, though he was a bit inconsistent later on. Overall, he posted a 3.39 ERA and a 97/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, highlighted back to back gems against Rutgers and Penn State to start the season in which he tossed fourteen innings and allowed just one run on seven baseunners while striking out 28. At his best, the central Illinois native can be absolutely untouchable, showing a fastball up to 96 as well as an absolute hammer of a curveball and a tight, late slider. Here is some fall video, which captures him at his best. Now there's still a lot of work to do. The 6'6" righty improved his command from non-playable to fringe-average, but it was exposed to be safely below average over longer stints this spring. His stuff wasn't always at its best, either, sometimes losing a touch of velocity or seeing his breaking balls back up a bit. Brown is very young for the class, not turning 21 until more than a month after the draft, and given how far he's come in such a short period of time it's natural to have some bumps in the road. That's what the Rockies will tell themselves as they work to refine his delivery, build strength, and overall just get him to that best version of himself more often than not. There's a ton of upside here and I'm really interested to see how he turns out. Brown signed for slot value at $780,400.
4-109: C Hunter Goodman, Memphis. My rank: #110.
Last year, the Rockies drafted a glove first high school catcher named Drew Romo in the comp round, but he's off to a hot .328/.361/.461 start with the bat so far at Low A Fresno this summer. They'll give him a bat-first counterpart in Hunter Goodman, and the two could work their way up together and eventually work in tandem as long term catchers in Colorado. Goodman has put up tremendous numbers at Memphis, slashing .323/.388/.638 with 42 home runs and a 124/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games for his career, including a .307/.401/.678 line and a career-high 21 home runs this spring. This is a big power bat that has never had any trouble tapping it in games, even as an underclassman in the elite Cape Cod League in 2019 when he blasted eight home runs in 43 games. The power comes from all the strength he packs into his 6'1" frame in addition to the leverage he's able to produce and his willingness to attack hittable pitches. Now, even though he never had a power drought at any point in his amateur career, he is fairly raw as a hitter. The Memphis-area native shows a pretty swing in batting practice, but it can get choppy in games and he doesn't always get his best swing off. He's also been extremely aggressive throughout his career, walking at just a 4.2% rate over his first two years at Memphis and just 1.8% on the Cape. That improved in 2021, when he bumped his walk rate up to 12.4%, but he still struck out at a career-high 21.9% rate, simply working his way into deeper counts rather than seriously improving his pitch selection. Behind the plate, Goodman's actions remain fringy, and while his strong arm and the possible coming of robot umpires gives him a chance to stick there, I personally feel as though the bar for catcher defense is or should be elevated at Coors Field where pitchers really need to trust their catchers. If he has to move to first base, it immediately becomes a pretty boom or bust profile. No matter what the strikeout and walk numbers are, you absolutely can't deny the numbers and the consistency of his in-game power at Memphis, especially from a catcher, so we are talking the upside of a legitimate power hitting starting catcher if he makes the transition well. Goodman signed for $600,000, which was $67,000 above slot value, and he's hitting .333/.375/.467 through five games in the ACL.
6-170: C Braxton Fulford, Texas Tech. Unranked.
The Rockies didn't have any hometown picks this year, so the closest we'll get is by heading down to the high plains of West Texas, where we get Texas Tech catcher Braxton Fulford, a Lubbock native. Even though it's in Texas, Lubbock is barely farther from Denver as it is from Houston, so we'll roll with it and call it a stretch of a semi-hometown pick. Fulford has been a staple behind the plate for the Red Raiders for four years now, and he had his best season yet in 2021 by slashing .264/.395/.590 with 14 home runs and a 54/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Unlike Hunter Goodman, Fulford really stands out for his work behind the plate. He's extremely agile back there and can get back and forth to block balls in the dirt, then pop up quickly with a lightning fast transfer to show off his above average arm and nail runners trying to take a base. His energy back there is contagious and pitchers love working with him, something that will be very important in a place like Coors Field. Previously a light hitting glove-first guy, he exploded for a career high 14 home runs this spring after totaling five in 117 games over his first three seasons, and now that outlook has changed a bit. It still remains to be seen whether he'll make enough contact to tap that power in pro ball, having struck out at a 24.5% rate this spring, but if he can he does have some upside as a starter given his defense. More likely though, he'll probably end up a glove-first backup that can ambush mistake pitches out of the park. Fulford signed for $280,000, which was $16,400 below slot value, and he has one hit in five at bats so far in the ACL.
7-200: LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati. My rank: #140.
Evan Shawver entered the spring as a favorite sleeper among Midwest area scouts and data-driven scouts alike, and while he didn't quite go bust in 2021, he didn't quite build on his promise either. Shawver had a rough freshman season before turning it around as a sophomore, then settled in with a strong if not flashy junior season by posting a 2.72 ERA and a 49/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings. Just before the draft, he did make a late push to get some "flash" into his profile by winning Cape Cod League pitcher of the week honors in late June on the heels of back to back scoreless six inning starts in which he struck out 22 of the 48 batters he faced. Shawver may be undersized, but he doesn't lack in stuff with a low 90's fastball that usually tops out around 94 but has gotten up to 97 in short stints, coming in with high spin rates and a low release height that give it great riding life. He adds an above average to plus slider and an average changeup, all of which he locates well with solid average command. The 6' lefty faces durability questions because of his skinny frame and the fact that he missed some time this spring with nagging injuries while his delivery is moderately high effort. I think the national baseball media put too much into that and him underrated a bit (unranked on MLB Pipeline top 250, #387 on the Baseball America 500, #262 on the Prospects Live top 600), and he has a good chance to be a very useful #3 or #4 starter if the Rockies can pack a little more strength in there. The Cleveland-area native signed for full slot value at $231,100.
8-230: OF Robby Martin, Florida State. My rank: #133.
As with a lot of other players in this class, I find Robby Martin to be interesting as well. Coming into the season, he reminded me a bit of where JJ Bleday was pre-junior season (though if you'll remember, Bleday was not considered a top of the draft prospect at that point), with maybe a half grade less on all of his tools. Like Bleday, he was an all fields, line drive hitter that had grown into significantly more power since high school, but hadn't necessarily learned to use it. In Bleday's junior season in 2019, he very much figured it out, but Martin didn't quite had the same success, slashing .260/.352/.451 with eleven home runs and a 56/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. The Tampa native has added a ton of strength to his 6'3" frame and can really put a charge into a baseball, but in games he still employs that all fields, line drive approach. Unlike Bleday, who showed a keen eye at the plate and a knack for working counts and drawing walks, Martin was a bit more prone to swing and miss and whiffed at a 22.4% rate this year. He has shown a knack for finding the barrel in the past and did hit .317 with a .408 on-base percentage over his first two years at Florida State, so the Rockies are betting that his down 2021 was just a placeholder while he got ready for his breakout in pro ball. Hitting in an environment like Coors (plus hitter-friendly minor league parks like Fresno and Albuquerque) could provide that extra little push to get him lifting and turning on the ball consistently, hopefully without leading to more swing and miss. If he gets there, this could be a productive every day bat for the Rockies, though his outfield defense is just ordinary and he profiles in a corner with average speed. He signed for $200,000, which was $16,300 above slot value, and he's hitless through seven at bats in the ACL, though he has drawn two walks.
9-260: RHP Cullen Kafka, Oregon. My rank: #204.
Cullen Kafka drew some moderate interest in the 2020 draft and likely would have gone if the draft were full length, but he had never shown enough consistency to really fit in the top five rounds. He pulled it together this year and turned in by far his best performance with a 3.00 ERA and an 84/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, including starting the season by allowing just one run in his first four starts. Kafka has a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 96, adding a significantly improved slider that now profiles as above average. The 6'4" righty mainly pitches off those two and has improved his strike throwing to fringe-average, though he does tend to sail the ball at times. If Kafka wants to stick in a rotation long term, he's going to have to take a step forward with his fringy changeup as well as get that command up just a tick. The Bay Area native has an ideal pitcher's frame and gets down the mound well, but my guess is he's eventually pushed back to the bullpen with a bit of a high effort delivery. There, he can focus on the fastball and slider and worry less about pinpoint command. He signed right at slot value for $158,100.
18-530: RHP Bryce McGowan, Charlotte. My rank: #94.
The Rockies spent much of their unused bonus pool money here, hitting Bryce McGowan with sixth round money to get him into their system. McGowan brings a ton of upside, but will require some work. While the stuff has long intrigued scouts, he's never quite put it together at Charlotte, and this year was his best with a 4.84 ERA and a 99/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his power fastball and can reach back for 98-99 in short stints, and the pitch plays up because he gets great ride on it. His secondary pitches are trending up to catch his fastball, with a slider that is flashing plus at times as well as a changeup that flashes above average. It seems like the Raleigh-Durham native is slowly growing into his loud stuff, with command that has ticked up towards fringe-average, but he still hasn't quite learned to harness it and can be very inconsistent. His loose delivery does work well. Slightly undersized at a generous 6'1", he still has plenty of very interesting puzzle pieces that the Rockies will try to put together. If he can get a bit more consistent with those secondary pitches and show average command, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. McGowan signed for $300,000, of which $175,000 counts against the Rockies' bonus pool.
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