The Red Sox picked up arguably the best talent in the draft in Marcelo Mayer with the fourth pick, which on its own can define this draft class, but the rest of the class was a bit of a roller coaster. Second rounder Jud Fabian didn't sign after Boston offered him nearly a million dollars less than what he had asked for before they selected him (and what he likely could have gotten from another team), but they still managed to spend the rest of their bonus pool with big over slot bonuses to fifth rounder Nathan Hickey and eleventh rounder Niko Kavadas. It was a hitter-heavy class that featured bats in each of the first three picks and five of the first six, and I'm very interested in mid-round arms Wyatt Olds and Hunter Dobbins. Mayer has to be my favorite pick for obvious reasons, but I did like Olds and Kavadas a lot as well.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-4: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]. My rank: #2.
Red Sox fans may have been hoping for Jack Leiter here, but they got just about as good of a consolation prize as you can get in Marcelo Mayer. There was a lot of talk about the high school shortstops who all received top five buzz, and to me, Mayer was fairly clearly the best. When I watched him hit for the very first time, I thought he was a power hitter because of the natural leverage and loft he puts into his left handed swing. Regardless of how far the baseballs were going, it was swing that was naturally conducive to producing power and maximizing distance. Then I learned he was actually a contact-over-power hitter, and that made the product even better. Mayer has excellent feel for the barrel and has hit consistently against the top arms in the country, perhaps more consistently than anyone in the class not named Jordan Lawlar, but to this point has shown average power. He's just 18 and a half, so it's virtually a guarantee that he will get stronger and grow into his ideal 6'3" frame, and that's when the magic is going to happen. Already touting a disciplined approach with very little swing and miss, he'll be able to add power to his game naturally without changing his mechanics, therefore without risking the plus hit tool. Once we get the finished product, it could be a legitimate 25-30 home run bat with high on-base percentages, and I see at least 20+ home runs a year as more likely than not for the kid who will absolutely get on base consistently. In the field, he makes up for a lack of plus speed with excellent instincts and body control, giving him the chance to be a plus defender at shortstop as well. The San Diego-area native is a vacuum at the position and has no problem throwing from any angle, sending the ball accurately across the diamond no matter where he fields it. There's really very little to dislike in this profile, which is why I had him ranked #2 on my board and really would consider it #1B, because him and Leiter are pretty much equal in my opinion. Awesome value at #4, especially considering they didn't have to go above slot to keep him away from Southern California. He signed for full slot value at $6.66 million and is slashing .214/.313/.357 with a home run through seven games in the FCL.
2-40: OF Jud Fabian, Florida. My rank: #22.
This one ultimately didn't work out as the second highest profile non-signing, obviously behind Kumar Rocker. My understanding is that Jud Fabian was allegedly asking for $3 million and had some teams in the 40's that were willing to offer it to him (my guess is that the Orioles were in there with their focus on college position players and the money they saved on Colton Cowser), but the Red Sox tried to call his bluff and offered him significantly less after drafting him. It wasn't a bluff, but the draft pick compensation rule means that the Red Sox won't feel much of a sting from their gamble, as they'll just get the 41st overall pick next year. As for Fabian, he was able to hold his ground on his asking price because he's extremely young for his class, not turning 21 until September, so he'll just be age appropriate (if slightly on the older side) for next year's class and still has two years of eligibility remaining. He's one of the most talented players in this entire class, and in 2021 he put up a very interesting .249/.364/.560 slash line with twenty home runs and a 79/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against tough competition. The Ocala, Florida native has plus raw power coming from a quick uppercut, peppering baseballs out to all fields with high exit velocities and with plenty of loft under them, which of course is why he hit twenty home runs and had two-homer games against North Florida, Vanderbilt (off second overall pick Jack Leiter), Kentucky, and Georgia. Additionally, he manages the strike zone extremely well, rarely chasing and handling both velocity and quality breaking balls with ease. That helped him draw more than his fair share of walks and also helps him tap his power, but the major drawback in this profile is barrel accuracy. Even though he consistently picks good pitches to hit, he often swings through them and at one point struck out sixteen times in a five game stretch against South Carolina and Ole Miss just because he couldn't actually get the barrel where he wanted it. Ultimately, Fabian struck out at a very high 29.3% clip on the season, so he'll go back to Florida and try to set things straight or at least get a bit more consistent. He's a plus defender in center field that combines above average speed with great jumps and a good arm. The Red Sox only offered a couple hundred thousand above slot, but even before they drafted him they knew he asked for about $1.14 million above slot and he held out for what he felt he was worth.
3-75: 2B Tyler McDonough, North Carolina State. My rank: #113.
I always had a hunch that I liked Tyler McDonough, and I guess the Red Sox did too because they drafted him another full round ahead of where I had him, which was already higher than most of the industry (#112 at MLB Pipeline, #126 at Baseball America, #207 at Prospects Live). He was eligible as a sophomore in 2020 because he was a full year older than his graduating class, but despite hitting .327/.405/.473 over his first two seasons, he went undrafted in the shortened draft. Had they gone a few more rounds, McDonough probably would have heard his name called. This year, he had a career-best season by slashing .339/.423/.631 with 15 home runs and a 48/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, pushing himself a few rounds up from where he would have been last year. He's a bit undersized at 5'10", but taps all of his power with a leveraged swing and good bat speed. McDonough also has good bat to ball skills that help him find the barrel consistently, and he could hit 15-20 home runs a year at his peak. Though he's a switch hitter, there's a little bit of Dustin Pedroia in his profile with his scrappy style of play, at least offensively. The Cincinnati-area native isn't quite the defender that Pedroia is, but he brings that energy on defense as well and can play all over the diamond, including corner outfield, second base, or even catcher if you're feeling crazy. He's already 22 and I don't know that I would confidently project him as a full time player, more as a super utility man, though he does have nice upside as a solid all-around hitter who can get on base, hit for some moderate pop, and steal a few bases as well. McDonough signed for $828,600, which was $2,500 below slot value, and he's hitting .222/.222/.333 through seven games between the FCL and Low A Salem.
4-105: RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Leadership Christian Academy [PR]. Unranked.
This was a bit of an off the radar pick, as the Red Sox headed to Puerto Rico to pick up a projectable young arm. Projection is indeed the name of the game, as Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz has a ton of room to fill out his rail thin 6'3" frame, while his fastball has ticked up from the mid 80's during his junior year in high school to around 90 now with top speeds around 94-95. Rodriguez-Cruz also flashes an above average curveball with sharp, late bite, but it's inconsistent and can flatten out at times. It also wouldn't hurt to add some power to it, which he will. Lastly, he shows feel for a solid changeup unlike most kids his age, and together it's a really good base for the future. The Red Sox will have to help him get more consistent with his delivery, which he doesn't always keep in sync, in turn affecting his arm slot and command. If Boston can iron the San Juan-area native out, there is big potential for a mid-rotation starter, but it will be a long time coming. Given the frame and age (he's extremely young for the class and didn't turn 18 until more than a month after the draft), Rodriguez-Cruz will undoubtedly continue to add velocity and the Red Sox are buying in early. Committed to Oregon, he instead signed for $497,500, which was $56,800 below slot value.
5-136: C Nathan Hickey, Florida. My rank: #87.
Nathan Hickey can really hit, there's no doubt about it. Over two years at Florida, he slashed .316/.436/.539 with 13 home runs and a nearly even 55/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games, looking right at home in their loaded lineup from day one. Hickey shows above average power from the left side, a product of a very strong 6' frame, and he taps it consistently in games and against good pitching. He takes very professional at bats and selects good pitches to hit, handling velocity and good breaking stuff pretty consistently. There's a little bit of swing and miss when he lets his swing get too long and it will be something to watch, though his keen aye at the plate does mitigate that a little bit. The Jacksonville-area native could project for 20+ home runs a year and solid on-base percentages, which would be a fantastic profile if he can stick behind the plate. He's very choppy back there and will need considerable work to stick, and it's probably more likely that he goes to first base because he's a well below average runner. That puts more pressure on his bat, which is still enough to work into the every day lineup at peak, but if he falters in that regard it might be more of a platoon projection. Hickey signed for $1 million, which was $589,900 above slot value, and he's hitting .235/.316/.294 through five games in the FCL.
6-166: SS Daniel McElveny, Bonita Vista HS [CA]. Unranked.
The Red Sox scouting crew must have spent a lot of time on the east side of Chula Vista, California. After grabbing Eastlake High School shortstop Marcelo Mayer in the first round, they went less than two miles down Otay Lakes Road to grab crosstown rival Bonita Vista High School's starting shortstop, Daniel McElveny, five rounds later. The Red Sox see some similarities to Mayer and believe McElveny could be a sleeper, though as you'd expect his game isn't quite where Mayer's is now. He shows a smooth, whippy swing from the right side that is geared to add more power as he tacks on strength to his 6' frame, and he has a pretty good approach at the plate that helps him select good pitches to hit. While Mayer is a bit taller at 6'3", McElveny is faster and has the range to play shortstop, though Mayer has the better arm and will likely push McElveny second base, where he could be a plus defender in time. Had he gone to San Diego State, he may have blossomed into one of the West Coast's better hitters, and the Red Sox believe they're buying into that before it happens. He signed for $197,500, which was $109,300 below slot value, and he's hitless in three at bats so far in the FCL.
7-196: RHP Wyatt Olds, Oklahoma. My rank: #189.
I normally don't like relief prospects because they're a dime a dozen, but Wyatt Olds really fascinates me and I think he has true closer upside. Mostly a starter at Oklahoma, he was up and down this spring and posted a 5.23 ERA and a 101/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings including dominant outings against Houston and Texas and some rough ones against Arizona, Arkansas State, and TCU. Olds shows a low 90's fastball as a starter but can touch 97 in short stints, while his slider can be nasty in the mid 80's. He's toyed with a changeup in his starting role but hasn't quite found a feel for it, while his strike throwing can be erratic and he walked eight batters in a start against Oklahoma State (but only allowed one hit in five innings, interestingly enough). The 6' righty can make everything play up, however, because he comes from a very unique angle, reaching way back in his stroke before whipping around to a wide, low three quarters arm slot that puts a ton of ride on his fastball. That in turn can play extremely well off his slider when it's located, and I can see that playing way up in relief. He was much better in that role this spring (2.70 ERA, 35/7 K/BB in 23.1 IP) and I could seriously see him throwing in high leverage situations in the near future. You don't need to waste a top 100 pick on a college reliever who can "move quickly" when you can find one just as good in the seventh round by converting a starter. The central Oklahoma native signed for $236,500, which was $2,500 below slot value, and he tossed a shutout inning in his FCL debut.
8-226: RHP Hunter Dobbins, Texas Tech. Unranked.
Texas area scouts were excited to see what Hunter Dobbins had in store in 2021 coming off a strong shortened 2020 in which he put up a 1.35 ERA and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings, but he went down with Tommy John surgery just before the season and never got on the mound. The Red Sox must have been awaiting his 2021 breakout more excitedly than most, and they'll expect that to happen in 2022 when he's healthy. Previously sitting in the low 90's, he experienced a velocity bump over the offseason and touched 98 in workouts, and he adds a sharp curveball that flashes plus at its best. For now, he mainly pitches off those two pitches, and if he wants to stick in the rotation he'll have to work on his fringy changeup. The 6'2" righty has more starter upside than Wyatt Olds in my opinion because he's a better strike thrower and has a bit cleaner of an operation, but of course he'll have to prove he's healthy in 2022 (though Tommy John is basically routine at this point). There's a bit of effort in the delivery and that may have to be smoothed out a bit for him to throw six-plus innings every fifth day. The Bryan, Texas native signed for $197,500, which was $8,600 above slot value.
11-316: 1B Niko Kavadas, Notre Dame. My rank: #170.
Many older prospects like Niko Kavadas tend to take discounts to go earlier in the draft, where he had numerous offers, but he held out for what he wanted and signed for sixth round money in the eleventh round. Kavadas is a country-strong ball of muscle at a listed 6'1", 235 pounds, and he was one of the best hitters in the country this spring by slashing .302/.473/.767 with 22 home runs and a 55/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games against a tough ACC schedule. As you'd expect, the northern Indiana native has some tremendous raw power, as evidenced by this absolute moonshot against Braves first rounder Ryan Cusick or this intergalactic cannonball against potential 2022 first rounder Landon Sims that left me frozen in shock when I saw it in real time, a product of brute strength more than anything else. As evidenced by the two linked home runs plus many more, he has no problem whatsoever handling high velocity and identifies quality offspeed stuff well, which should help him move quickly through the minors. There is some swing and miss in his game and he struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances this spring, but that was against good competition and he drew plenty of walks because of his ability to discern hittable pitches from the ones he doesn't want. It's more a matter of execution on those balls in the zone than anything else. Nobody is mistaking Kavadas for an athlete, with his bottom of the scale speed and fringy glove, so first base is the best case scenario and he may just end up a full time DH. You can comp him to David Ortiz if you want, though whereas Ortiz had a 60 grade hit tool, Kavadas is probably a 40, so don't expect numbers quite that good. Maybe Matt Adams is a more realistic comp, especially with Kavadas set to turn 23 in a few months. He signed for $250,000, of which $125,000 counts against the Red Sox' bonus pool, and he's hitting .286/.500/.643 with a home run through five games in the FCL.
No comments:
Post a Comment