As has been the case for a few years, the Yankees' system is much deeper in pitching than in hitting. They have starting and relief pitching prospects up and down the system, especially from their successful work in the international market, and guys like Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Miguel Yajure, Clarke Schmidt, Roansy Contreras, and Alexander Vizcaino all see their stock rapidly on the rise. They've worked hard to try to develop some hitting, though guys like Estevan Florial, Anthony Seigler, Everson Pereira, and Anthony Garcia saw their progress stall a bit in 2019. Fortunately, they did get a breakout from Canaan Smith, and I also see Oswald Peraza as a sleeper, so there are at least a few interesting bats out there. Oh yeah, and we're all on the edge of our seats to see what superstar international signee Jasson Dominguez can do.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, short season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Catcher
- Josh Breaux (2020 Age: 22): The second of back to back catchers selected by the Yankees in the 2018 draft, Breaux went to in the second round out of McLennan Community College in Texas. He hit well in his first full season in 2019, slashing .271/.324/.518 with 13 home runs and a 59/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at Class A Charleston, though he missed a big chunk of the season with an elbow injury. He comes with both big power and big swing and miss, though fortunately the strikeouts weren't an issue this year and the power played up. The higher levels will still be a test for his bat, but I think he's hit his way into being a legitimate prospect. Now defensively, he's still got some work to do, as he's talented but he remains erratic behind the plate. If he has to move to first base, his bat could still profile in a reserve role, but he probably has to figure out a way to stick as a catcher if he wants to start.
- Anthony Seigler (2020 Age: 20-21): Seigler is still the better prospect to Breaux, but while Breaux's 2019 was a step in the right direction, Seigler's very much was not. After being drafted in the first round out of Cartersville High School outside Atlanta, where he was the second best athlete in his graduating class behind Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Seigler slashed just .175/.328/.206 with a 28/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games at Class A Charleston before taking a fastball off his knee, ending his season in July. He's combines great athleticism with advanced feel for the game, and even as he struggled to make quality contact in his 30 games with Charleston, he showed good knowledge of the strike zone for a 20 year old in Class A. High school catchers are risky, and Seigler might take longer to develop than originally expected, but with his athleticism and feel for the barrel, he could still be a starting catcher with high on-base percentages and 10-15 home runs per season if he gets it figured out. His defense is far superior to Breaux's and he should be above average back there.
- Keep an eye on: Antonio Gomez
Corner Infield
- Chris Gittens (2020 Age: 26): The Yankees are really shallow at first and third base, so a guy like Chris Gittens stands out after a huge 2019 where he slashed .281/.393/.500 with 23 home runs and a 139/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Trenton. He has plenty of power in his 6'4" frame, which he got to consistently in 2019 in part because he's willing to wait to get a good pitch to drive. That patient approach comes with a lot of strikeouts, and he probably won't ever hit enough to start every day in the majors, but he did smoke left handed pitchers to a .313/.442/.634 line, 13 home runs, and a 40/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 2019 (versus .265/.367/.432 against righties). With that skill, he could be able to carve out a platoon role as a right handed power hitting 1B/DH against left handed pitchers.
- Mickey Gasper (2020 Age: 24): Gasper is another guy who sticks out because of the lack of corner infield depth in this system. A 27th round pick out of Bryant in 2018, he hit .251/.356/.393 with ten home runs and a 79/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at Class A Charleston and High A Tampa in 2019. He actually hit better after his promotion, jumping from .233/.347/.375 to .321/.393/.462. He has a very strong feel for the strike zone and is able to recognize strikes from balls as well as anyone in the system, and that helps his otherwise average offensive tools play up. He doesn't hit for enough power to ever start regularly at first base, but as a switch hitter whose skills should play up at the higher levels, he could be a useful bench bat down the line.
- Keep an eye on: Mandy Alvarez, Spencer Henson
Middle Infield
- Hoy Jun Park (2020 Age: 24): Most of the Yankees' middle infield talent is lower down in the minors, so Park (along with Kyle Holder) stands out in the upper levels. Signed for $1 million out of South Korea way back in 2014, Park has lost some of his prospect luster after his bat failed to really materialize, but he still has a shot at being a utility infielder in the near future. Park in 2019 slashed .272/.363/.370 with three home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 91/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Trenton, showing good plate discipline with a scrappy approach at the plate. He shows good speed and defense at shortstop, which at this point will be his ticket to the major leagues, though he projects to be a bit of a light hitter who might post solid on-base percentages but not much power.
- Josh Smith (2020 Age: 22-23): Smith was a second round pick out of LSU in 2019, and his strong pro debut saw him slash .324/.450/.477 with three home runs, six stolen bases, and a 17/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games at short season Staten Island. Smith actually posted similar numbers in Baton Rouge, and I expected them to take a slight hit once he switched to wood bats/pro pitching, but at least for his first 33 games, that hasn't been the case. Though he has a line drive swing, he has great feel for the barrel and hits the ball hard all over the park, and he showed more patience than expected in his pro debut, which could impact his stock in a real way if he maintains that next year. Currently a shortstop, he probably fits better over at second base, but he could be a really valuable utility infielder who can post high on-base percentages with decent pop or even a starter if he does indeed build off his success so far.
- Oswald Peraza (2020 Age: 19-20): Peraza is a real sleeper prospect, one who doesn't have loud tools but who has a real shot to be not just a utility man, but a potential starter for the Yankees down the road. The Venezuelan product had a small breakout in 2019, slashing .263/.332/.340 with four home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 37/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at short season Staten Island and Class A Charleston, and like Mickey Gasper, he actually hit better after the promotion (.273/.348/.333) than before it (.241/.294/.354). Just 19 years old, Peraza has a very quick bat and excellent feel for putting the ball in play, as he struck out in just 12.6% of his plate appearances this year. He hasn't quite hit for a ton of impact yet, and that for now projects him as a slick fielding utility infielder, but I think he may be able to unlock some moderate power and hit about ten home runs per season with high on-base percentages and good speed, which could mean starting shortstop if things break right for him. He turns 20 in June, by which time he could already be established at High A.
- Anthony Volpe (2020 Age: 19): A local product out of the Delbarton School in Morristown, New Jersey, Volpe was one of the more interesting players in this year's draft class. None of his tools stand out, but he endeared himself to scouts with his exceptionally scrappy playing style, his excellent work ethic, and his leadership qualities, combined with the ability to just play baseball. Despite a strong commitment to Vanderbilt, the Yankees wooed him away from Nashville at the end of the first round and sent him to the Appalachian League. His pro debut by the numbers was fairly underwhelming, as he slashed .215/.349/.355 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 38/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games at rookie level Pulaski, but that was a moderately aggressive assignment anyways for a high schooler. Though he lacks much over the fence power and probably won't ever develop too much, he can work counts and barrel the ball up well for someone his age and he plays good infield defense, maybe not good enough for shortstop full time, but enough to be above average at second base.
- Keep an eye on: Kyle Holder, Oswaldo Cabrera, Alexander Vargas
Outfield
- Estevan Florial (2020 Age: 22): Florial might be the best athlete in the system, as he's blessed with physical tools that help him on both sides of the ball. However, injuries have slowed his development somewhat, and in 2019 he slashed .237/.297/.383 with eight home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games at High A Tampa after returning from a broken wrist. Florial is an explosive hitter, one who can generate impressive batting practice displays and get the ball traveling when he barrels one up. However, his feel for the barrel is somewhat lacking, and on top of relatively high (albeit not overly concerning) strikeout rates, he hasn't been able to get to his power as often as perhaps he'd like. He'll play all of 2020 at 22 years old, which is still young for a player ready to take on the upper minors, but my guess is he'll require a full, healthy season at AA in order to figure himself out as a hitter. Fortunately, his physical tools play up elsewhere, as he's one of the best runners in the system capable of stealing 20 or more bases a year, and he's excellent in center field both with his range and his arm. That buys the bat time, and if it breaks right, he could hit 25-30 home runs per season with middling on-base percentages and great defense, an All Star ceiling, though there's a good chance he ends up more of a 15-20 homer guy with lower OBP's.
- Canaan Smith (2020 Age: 21): A fourth round pick out of a Dallas-area high school in Heath, Texas in 2017, Canaan Smith hit well in his pro debut (.289/.430/.422) in 2017 before slumping in his first full season in 2018 (.191/.281/.316). He was expected to take a little extra time to develop, and in 2019 he began to tap into his potential, slashing .307/.405/.465 with eleven home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 108/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Charleston. He initially struggled to make contact in the minors in part due to a lot of excess hand movement that delayed his bat getting to where it needed to go. In 2019, his hands looked noticeably quieter, and that enabled him to get his barrel into the zone much quicker and begin to use his leveraged swing and natural power to do damage. He also drew a lot of walks and kept his strikeouts reasonably down, and as he develops further, he could hit 20+ home runs per season with good on-base percentages. With his thicker build, he's not the best runner, but he has a strong arm and profiles well in right field.
- Jasson Dominguez (2020 Age: 17): Still just 16 years old, Dominguez has already been talked about as one of the greatest international prospects ever. He signed out of the Dominican Republic for $5.1 million on the basis of what can only be described as all-around exceptional play. He's only 5'10" but he has a ton of raw power, can get to it easily with great feel for hitting, and he's an exceptional athlete with big time speed and defense. Of course, I've never actually seen him play and all I have to go off of are a few Youtube videos and people's word, so I can say this; Dominguez looks like the real deal. His explosive athleticism enables him to do everything at a high level on the baseball field, and with ease. Now I also have to say this; Dominguez is far from a guarantee. I've seen this kind of praise heaped on a young teenager three before. 2010 first overall pick Bryce Harper signed a $330 million contract, 2015 international signee Yoan Moncada has established himself as a big league regular, and 2016 international signee Kevin Maitan is currently toiling away in the Angels system and it's pretty clear that he Maitan the player he was projected to be. Harper and Maitan represent two different extremes from the same starting point, and it goes to show that 16 and 17 year olds can never be sure things. That said, I'm really excited to see what Dominguez can do in 2020, where he'll play the whole season at 17 years old and he'll likely break into the complex level Gulf Coast League if not up to the rookie level Appalachian League, and his ceiling is that of an MVP.
- Jake Sanford (2020 Age: 22): Sanford came out of absolute nowhere, as he wasn't even recruited to play college baseball and ended up at tiny McCook Community College in Nebraska before managing to land a spot at Western Kentucky, where he promptly blossomed into one of the best hitters in the country and a third round pick of the New York Yankees. The Nova Scotia native did so by slashing a ridiculous .398/.483/.805 with 22 home runs in 56 games for the Hilltoppers, then after he was drafted, he hit .238/.289/.411 with eight home runs and an 81/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games at short season Staten Island. Two things were immediately clear about Sanford in his debut; he has a ton of raw pop, which is evident in his batting practice displays as well as in games, and his plate discipline needs a lot of work. Sanford might not develop as quickly as the typical college bat, probably spending 2019 in Class A, but he does have plenty of upside and likely settles in as a power hitting fourth outfielder or platoon bat down the road.
- Everson Pereira (2020 Age: 19): The bad news is that 2019 was a lost season for Pereira, as he slashed just .171/.216/.257 with one home run and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games at short season Staten Island before hurting his ankle and missing the rest of the season. The good news is that he doesn't turn 19 until April, so he has plenty of time to make up for it. The first thing that sticks out to him is his feel for the game, as he already has a great understanding of the strike zone for his age and was already showing the ability to drive the ball to the gaps against older competition in 2018. He's also a natural defender in center field, one who should be able to stick there with his speed. At this point, he projects best as a contact hitting center fielder with a good approach, though at 18 years old he has a lot of time to develop into a number of different directions.
- Ryder Green (2020 Age: 19-20): Green was the Yankees' third round pick out of a Knoxville high school in 2018, and he spent his first full pro season slashing .262/.343/.444 with eight home runs and a 67/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at rookie level Pulaski. Green is a bit raw as a hitter, and that's why he was held back in the Appalachian League for his first full season, but there is clear raw power from his quick left handed bat and natural strength. His swing mechanics can be inconsistent, but at his best, he can have a much shorter swing than many other young power hitters, and getting more consistent with that swing should be the breakthrough that enables him to start to rise through the minors as a power hitting right fielder. Green, at best, projects for 25-30 home runs per season and decent on-base percentages, of course with a lot of risk and a greater likelihood of becoming a fourth outfielder.
- Antonio Cabello (2020 Age: 19): Cabello signed for $1.35 million out of Venezuela back in 2017, then hit .321/.426/.555 as a 17 year old in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2018 to put himself firmly on the prospect map. 2019 wasn't quite as successful, as he dropped to .211/.280/.330 with three home runs and a 77/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at rookie level Pulaski. He's a bit undersized at 5'10", but his explosive athleticism from the right side of the plate helps him drive the ball consistently while his good feel for the barrel helps him get to it. However, his swing does have some holes, and Appalachian League pitching found those holes in his 18 year old swing and that suppressed his production. He still has a high ceiling as an all-around, potential five tool guy, but he'll need to put in some work to get his swing in sync. He'll play all of 2020 at 19 years old with the chance to hit his way up to full season ball.
- Kevin Alcantara (2020 Age: 17-18): Alcantara won't turn 18 until July, and he has one of the highest ceilings in this system for players not named Dominguez. Signed for $1 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, he was the youngest player in all of Minor League Baseball outside of the Dominican Summer League in 2019, and he slashed .255/.305/.360 with a home run and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in the DSL and in the Gulf Coast League. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate and was a bit overmatched in the GCL (.260/.289/.358, 27/3 K/BB), which is natural when you get there a few weeks before your 17th birthday, but the potential is clear. He stands 6'6" and has an explosive swing that could produce plus power once he fills out, and he moves well for his size, enabling him to play good outfield defense. Alcantara has a ceiling you can dream on, but since he's only 17 and a half years old, I won't speculate on any numbers.
- Keep an eye on: Trey Amburgey, Isaiah Gilliam, Brandon Lockridge, Josh Stowers, Anthony Garcia
Starting Pitching
- Deivi Garcia (2020 Age: 20-21): After signing for $200,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Garcia has built his stock every year until now becoming the top pitching prospect in the Yankees system, if not the best prospect in the system overall. A year after he posted a 2.55 ERA and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over across three levels in 2018, he came back with another solid 2019, posting a 4.28 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 165/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings at High A Tampa, AA Trenton, and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He stands just 5'9", but he sits easily in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 97-98, and he gets good movement on it to. His best pitch is his curveball, a true knee-buckler that will be an out pitch in the majors, and he adds a rapidly improving changeup that now features nice drop to the arm side. Additionally, he's very young, only turning 21 in May, yet he already has great feel for pitching and his command is advanced for his age. He walked a few more batters in 2019 than he did in 2018, though part of that was just a product of facing high level hitting in AA and AAA. He still carries the risk inherent in his size, but if he can take one more step forward with his command and really lock down the zone, Garcia has ace potential and a very good chance to be at least a #3 starter. I just don't expect him to be immediately that good in the majors right out of the gate, and he'll probably need a little more seasoning at AAA.
- Michael King (2020 Age: 24-25): King, a Rhode Island native and Boston College product now pitching on the other side of the rivalry, had a fantastic 2018 in which he posted a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio across three levels, but his 2019 was slowed by elbow problems. He avoided Tommy John surgery and ended up with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 44/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between AA Trenton, AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, and rehab work, then tossed two shutout innings against the Rangers in his first and so far only big league appearance. He's much more about pitchability than pure stuff, and he sits in the low to mid 90's with a heavy, ground ball inducing fastball while adding a pair of breaking balls and a great changeup. He commands and mixes it all very well, which will enable it to play up in the majors. I honestly see a very narrow ceiling/floor combination, as he has a very good chance of ending up between a #3 and a #5 starter, with his most likely outcome splitting the difference at a #4 guy who is dependable day to day but who likely won't go out and spin complete game shutouts.
- Clarke Schmidt (2020 Age: 24): In the midst of a huge junior season at South Carolina in 2017, Schmidt went down with Tommy John surgery shortly before the draft but still landed with the Yankees in the first round. After missing the rest of the season, he got back on the mound for 23.1 innings in 2018 and finally came back mostly healthy in 2019. This year, he had a 3.47 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 102/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings at High A Tampa, AA Trenton, and complex level rehab, looking like the guy he was two years earlier. After Garcia, he might have the best combination of stuff and command in the system. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his sinking, running fastball that generates a ton of ground balls, but unlike a lot of other sinkerballers, he adds good secondary stuff in a tight, two-plane curveball and a changeup with some serious fade. As he moves farther from his surgery, I expect his stock to continue to rise, and I think he's as safe a bet as anyone in this system to be a #3 or #4 starter.
- Nick Nelson (2020 Age: 24): It remains to be seen whether Nelson can stick in the rotation, as 2019 was a step in the right direction but he has more work to do. This year, he had a 2.81 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 114/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings at High A Tampa, AA Trenton, and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, spending most of his season at the middle level. He has a power arm on his 6'1" frame, helping him sit consistently in the mid 90's and touching higher, and he adds a whole host of secondary pitches that can miss bats at their best. However, he often struggles to command them, which limits their effectiveness. I think he deserves a chance to keep starting in 2020, to prove whether he can overcome the lack of command, as he has a shot to be a #4 guy. However, if he shifts to the bullpen, he could mix his power fastball with some of his better secondary pitches and possibly go multiple innings – sounds like a great opener to me.
- Miguel Yajure (2020 Age: 21-22): Yajure raised his stock perhaps more than any other pitching prospect in the Yankees system in 2019, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 133/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 138.2 innings at High A Tampa and AA Trenton. Nothing he throws is plus, but with his low to mid 90's fastball and full set of diverse secondary pitches which he commands very well, he keeps high level hitters off balance throughout the game. That bodes well for his stuff's ability to play up even at the big league level, as he's actually looked better with each promotion as he's learned more and more about his own game. He's probably an Anibal Sanchez-esque #3/#4 guy, one who can be consistent and reliable each start. Of course, we do need to see how his stuff plays against the juiced balls in AAA and the majors.
- Luis Gil (2020 Age: 21-22): Gil joined Yajure in having a huge breakout in 2019, posting a 2.72 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 123/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at Class A Charleston and High A Tampa (mostly at the lower level). He's most well known for his mid to upper 90's fastball, which was enough to overwhelm Class A hitters from his high arm slot, but he also adds a rapidly improving curveball that dives away from right handed hitters and should be ab out pitch at the major league level. The rest of his game needs some work, though, as he lacks much of a changeup and his command comes and goes. Set to turn 22 years old in June, he's an old prospect, but he's also not the youngest kid in A ball, and he'll likely need at least most of 2020 at High A. The upside is immense as a potential #2/#3 starter, but he needs work and could end up as a bat missing, power reliever.
- Roansy Contreras (2020 Age: 20): Contreras is one of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Yankees system. He spent 2019 at Class A at just 19 years old, posting a 3.33 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 113/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.1 innings. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball and changeup, and unlike many pitchers his age, he has pretty good command, and it should be above average by the time he gets up to the majors. He lacks the ceiling of some of the other pitchers in this system like Garcia and Gil, but I think he has a good chance to develop into a #3 starter. He'll spend all of 2020 at 20 years old with the chance to tackle High A.
- Alexander Vizcaino (2020 Age: 22-23): Vizcaino, who signed for just $14,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, is a late bloomer who had a major breakout 2019, posting a 4.38 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 128/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings at Class A Charleston and High A Tampa. His fastball has climbed up into the mid to upper 90's while his command has gone from decent to solid, and he adds an improving curveball and changeup as well. Vizcaino has the chance for three above average pitches and good command, though on the flip side, as a late bloomer, he was just a little old for Class A. Further improvement of his breaking ball could land him in the back of the Yankees rotation or as a fastball/changeup reliever.
- T.J. Sikkema (2020 Age: 21-22): Sikkema parlayed a dominant career at Missouri into a money-saving competitive balance selection to the Yankees, then posted a 0.84 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 13/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings at short season Staten Island. He doesn't throw all that hard, sitting just above 90 with his fastball while adding a good slider and a solid changeup, but the lefty has a bulldog mentality that enables him to go after hitters and make his stuff play up. The Yankees will hope to take that fire he brings to the mound continues continues to help him navigate pro lineups, and if he can improve his average command, he has a chance to be a back-end starter. More realistically, he should be a lefty set-up man that can pitch well under pressure.
- Yoendrys Gomez (2020 Age: 20): Gomez has been sneaking up prospect boards as a sleeper guy, and in 2019 he posted a 3.99 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 53/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings at rookie level Pulaski and Class A Charleston. Gomez has great stuff in a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup, and he's managed to improve his command to be close to average. He's got a lot of work to do in continuing to refine his stuff and hopefully getting that command firmly and consistently into the average range, though in a system deep in pitching, he might continue to go fairly unnoticed even with a strong run through Class A in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Garrett Whitlock, Jio Orozco, Nolan Martinez, Osiel Rodriguez
Relief Pitching
- Albert Abreu (2020 Age: 24): Abreu, acquired from the Astros in the Brian McCann trade after the 2016 season, continues to show power stuff but might not be cut out for starting at the major league level. In 2019, he had a 4.28 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 91/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings at AA Trenton, showing a power fastball in the mid to upper 90's, a power curveball, and a fading changeup that can all miss bats. However, his command has stayed consistently below average throughout his career, and that's kept him from making the final leap into the major league rotation. He also topped out at 101.2 innings in 2016 as he's struggled with nagging injuries throughout his career, and I think he's best off in the bullpen at this point. There, his command might matter less and he can just focus on a few batters at a time, and his power stuff fits really well in that short-spurt kind of role. If I'm the Yankees, I'm shifting him over for 2020 and seeing if I can get him into the big league bullpen.
- Trevor Stephan (2020 Age: 24): Stephen, like Abreu, has been a starter up to this point, and he posted a 4.73 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 91/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings at High A Tampa and AA Trenton while being bothered by back problems in 2019. The former third round pick out of Arkansas in 2017 still has a chance to remain a starter if he returns fully healthy and more effective in 2020, but in a system so deep in starting pitching depth, his best path to the majors may be in the bullpen. The 6'5" righty has a crossfire delivery that delivers low to mid 90's fastballs from a deceptive angle, and he adds an improving slider and changeup. His command is average even with the lower arm angle, though I think his stuff could take a step forward if he switches to the bullpen and stops having to pace himself.
- Luis Medina (2020 Age: 20-21): Among the most uncomfortable at bats in the minors would probably be Luis Medina, a 6'1" right hander with electric stuff and no command. In 2019, he posted a 5.47 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and a 127/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.2 innings at Class A Charleston and High A Tampa, throwing as a starter for now. He sits comfortably in the upper 90's with his fastball and has hit as high as 102, and he drops in a tight, diving curveball that is nearly impossible to square up. Medina also comes in with a diving changeup that sits in the low 90's and is harder than a lot of fastballs, so hitters are really guessing whenever he throws. The problem is that he has no idea where most of his stuff is going, and at 19-20 years old in 2019, he still walked 14.9% of his opponents. The Yankees are working hard to get him at least close to the zone, because even with below average command he could be a useful major league starter, and if he can drop that walk rate below 10% he could be a #3 or #4 guy. For now, though, his most likely projection is as an electric reliever. Fortunately, he only turns 21 in May.
- Keep an eye on: Frank German, Glenn Otto, Aaron McGarity, Matt Sauer
Showing posts with label Michael King. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael King. Show all posts
Saturday, December 14, 2019
Monday, December 17, 2018
Reviewing the New York Yankees Farm System
The Yankees' system isn't quite what it was just a few years ago, but they still have one of the better collections of arms in the minors. Per MLB.com, ten of their top twelve prospects and 17 of their top 23 are pitchers, with the Yankees doing especially well on the international market. Interestingly, every one of those pitchers is right handed. However, their core of hitters is very thin, especially behind top prospect Estevan Florial. This discrepancy between hitting and pitching depth probably makes the Yankees' system the most lopsided in baseball.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, Short Season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Advanced Arms: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Michael King, and RHP Trevor Stephan
There are so many interesting pitchers in the Yankees system, so I'm just going to move through the system from top to bottom. The advanced pitchers, all right handed, show a good mix of skills; some are starters, some relievers, some get by on command, and some just overpower their opponents. 24 year old Jonathan Loaisiga, whose name I am finally learning to spell, is the most recognizable name for numerous reasons. The 5'11" Nicaraguan isn't the biggest guy but comes in with a mid 90's fastball and an equally dangerous curveball/changeup combination, all of which he commands very well. He bounced around quite a bit in 2018, overall posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a wicked 67/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between one rehab start in complex ball and time split between High A Tampa and AA Trenton. He also made it into nine major league games, posting a respectable 5.11 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings. With his command of three good pitches, he is ready to take over as a major league starter full time if the Yankees decide to use him to replace Sonny Gray, with the ultimate projection of being a mid-rotation starter. 24 year old Chance Adams, for the first time in his career, did not dominate the minors in 2018. At AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre this year, he posted a 4.78 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 113/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, also tossing 7.2 major league innings with a 7.04 ERA and four strikeouts and walks apiece. His stuff and control are both a bit closer to average than Loaisiga, so he has a chance to be a fifth starter but more likely ends up one of those long relievers that the Yankees (smartly) love to use. 24 year old Domingo Acevedo has been a highly regarded prospect since forever, missing a lot of time to injuries along the way. In 2018, he posted a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings between short season ball and Trenton, battling blister problems along the way. The huge 6'7" Dominican sits in the mid 90's with good command and decent secondaries, but he naturally struggles with consistency because he can't stay healthy. A healthy Acevedo can be a useful mid-rotation starter, but he probably ends up a hard throwing reliever if that doesn't materialize; he can run it up to 103 in short stints. 23 year old Michael King, statistically, had the best season in the minors, at least statistically, this year by going 11-5 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings between Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre. That success came from his advanced pitchability which should make him a serviceable #4 or #5 starter, even though his stuff is just average. A New Englander out of Boston College, his instincts on the mound give him a shot to crack the Yankee rotation in 2019, if not with the highest ceiling. 23 year old Trevor Stephan was just drafted out of Arkansas in the third round (92nd overall) in 2017, posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 140/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings between Tampa and Trenton. He was better at Tampa, the lower level, but held his own in Trenton with a similar skill set to King. He's a bit bigger than King and throws a better slider, but his command and pitchability aren't quite as advanced.
Mid Level Arms: RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Nick Nelson, and RHP Clarke Schmidt
The middle of the system naturally features more upside and more risk, again with no notable left handed pitchers. 19 year old Deivi Garcia came into the season as an exciting prospect to watch, but 14 starts later, he might just be the best pitching prospect in the system. The 5'10" righty had a fantastic breakout season, posting a 2.55 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings between Class A Charleston, High A Tampa, and AA Trenton, getting better and better with each promotion. His most notable start came on August 6th with Tampa, when he struck out 12 of the 21 hitters he faced over seven perfect innings against Clearwater (Phillies). He throws in the low 90's with room for more velocity, spins a great curveball, and has advanced command for his age and stuff. Really, the only question with Garcia is durability, as he is skinny at just 5'10" and 165 pounds, and his 74 innings in 2018 actually marked a career high. He turns just 20 in May, and while he could be major league ready at some point next season, the Yankees will likely continue to handle him cautiously to help him build up strength. When it's said and done, he has ace potential and a higher floor than most prospects his age. 23 year old Albert Abreu, like Domingo Acevedo, has struggled with injuries but shows great upside. Fighting numerous nagging injuries in 2018, he posted a 5.20 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 74/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings across four levels, though most of his season was spent at Tampa. The 6'2" righty has exceptional arm strength, throwing his fastball in the mid 90's while also tossing very good secondary stuff. He doesn't command it consistently, but that may be a product of his inability to stay healthy and get consistent reps in. The Yankees have developed him as a starter and hope he can remain one, as he is talented enough to do so, but they may be forced to move him to the bullpen where he could run his fastball up to 100. 22 year old Garrett Whitlock and 23 year old Nick Nelson were mainstays in the Tampa rotation this year, along with Abreu, both showing mid-rotation potential at the major league level. Whitlock posted a 1.86 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings between Charleston, Tampa, and Trenton, while Nelson posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 144/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at the same three levels. Like Abreu, both spent most of the season at Tampa. Both have similar stuff from the right side, though Whitlock is just a little bit more advanced with both his stuff and command, making him the better bet to develop into something useful for New York. 22 year old Clarke Schmidt was a first round pick (16th overall) out of South Carolina in 2017 despite having recently undergone Tommy John surgery, so he didn't get his pro career started until 2018. The Yankees were very cautious with the 6'1" righty, limiting him to eight appearances where he had a 3.09 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 30/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings of rehab work in complex and short season ball. There is no question about his stuff, with a low to mid 90's sinker and a great array of secondary pitches, all of which he can command moderately well. Once fully healthy in 2019, he should be a fast riser through the system and could be a mid-rotation starter shortly.
The Youngest Arms: RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Nolan Martinez, and RHP Juan Then
At this time last year, Deivi Garcia would have been classified in this group, and he broke out in a big way to become arguably the system's top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to be active in the international market and have another group of talented young pitchers coming up through the bottom of the system, and any of them could be 2019's Garcia. Many of these pitchers have high ceilings, but as with any teenage pitchers, the risk is very high, with potential injuries or failures to hone command being likely obstacles. 19 year old Roansy Contreras began to break out in 2018, posting a 2.42 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 60/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings between Short Season Staten Island and Class A Charleston. He's raw with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, the same building blocks Garcia had last year, with the best place for improvement being his command and his changeup. He's a long way off, but further development in those two areas could make him a mid-rotation starter at the major league level or better. 20 year old Luis Gil pitched well as well, posting a 1.96 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between rookie level Pulaski and Staten Island. He throws harder than Contreras but his command is very much a work in progress, as he struggles to locate his pitches and hurts himself with walks. He has a high ceiling but at 20 years old, it's time for him to show at least some feel for the strike zone. 19 year old Luis Medina spent the year at Pulaski and was hit around a little, posting a 6.25 ERA, a 2.17 WHIP, and a 47/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings. His stuff is as good as anybody's in the system, tossing and upper 90's fastball with a great curveball/changeup combination, but his command is behind even Gil's as he simply cannot throw strikes. He's constantly falling behind in the count and then gets hit when he leaves pitches over the plate, but if he could at least somewhat know where the ball is going, he could start missing bats at staggering rates. He could be anything from a future ace to an A ball flameout, so his 2019 will be important to track. 19 year old Matt Sauer spent the year at Staten Island and posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings, showing more command and pitchability and less stuff than the two Luis's ahead of him. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a good curveball and plenty of arm strength, looking like a classic mid-rotation prospect with his fair share of work to do given that he's still a teenager. 20 year old Nolan Martinez has been slow to get his career moving, just making it to full season ball this year after being drafted in the third round (98th overall) out of high school in California in 2016. This year, he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings between Staten Island and Charleston, looking a lot better in Staten Island than Charleston. He's a projectable arm with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but he's still raw despite a few years of experience. The Yankees will continue to run him out as a starter but the bullpen may be in his future. Lastly, I really like 18 year old Juan Then. The skinny 6'1" righty posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings in complex ball, showing great strike-throwing ability for his age to go along with pretty good stuff. He's going to add more velocity to his low 90's fastball and he already has good feel for a changeup, with his command and pitchability proving to be beyond his years. Definitely watch Then in 2019.
The Hitters: OF Estevan Florial, SS Thairo Estrada, C Anthony Seigler, C Josh Breaux, OF Ryder Green, and OF Everson Pereira
The Yankees really don't have much position player depth, with only one true impact prospect and only a couple that I could really see evolving into impact prospects. The big name right now is 21 year old Estevan Florial, a toolsy outfielder with a high ceiling. He spent 2018 split between High A Tampa and complex ball rehab, slashing .283/.377/.422 overall but just .255/.354/.361 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 87/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at Tampa when you take out his complex ball work. He has both power and speed, and his plate discipline took a step forward this year, but he hasn't been able to put everything together quite yet and is still producing pedestrian numbers. The Yankees hope a healthy 2019 will be the year where he puts it all together and potentially ends up in the Bronx, where he could be an impact player. For now though, we're still playing wait and see as to whether he can get to his power enough to make an impact. 22 year old Thairo Estrada missed most of 2018 with a back injury, slashing .192/.210/.231 with 17 strikeouts to zero walks in the 18 games he did get into between Tampa and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He lacks power but gets on base consistently when healthy, and with his solid glove at shortstop, he has a high floor as a utility infielder in New York. If he can continue to get on base consistently at the major league level and the Yankees can find a spot for him, he could start, and on a less competitive team he could be looking at competing for a starting spot out of spring training. However, he's a Yankee for now, so utility infielder is his future for now. 19 year old Anthony Seigler was the Yankees' first round pick (23rd overall) out of a Georgia high school this year, then slashed .266/.379/.342 with a home run and a 12/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games between complex ball and rookie level Pulaski in his debut, looking better at the lower level. He's a competent defender who should stick as a catcher, and while his bat looks like hit over power at this point, there's more for him to tap into. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick when the Yankees made it, having ranked him 44th on my draft rankings, but if the Yankees can develop his bat while maintaining his defense, they could have a starting catcher on their hands. 21 year old Josh Breaux was the second round pick (61st overall) right after Seigler, coming from a Texas JuCo. He's also a catcher, and while there is significant risk that he ends up at first base rather than behind the plate, he has more power than Seigler but has more swing and miss, fitting the description of a high ceiling/low floor prospect. The power is real but I'm definitely concerned about his ability to get to it consistently, especially if he has to move off of catcher and his bat has to carry him. After taking Breaux, the Yankees took 18 year old Ryder Green out of a Knoxville high school in the third round (97th overall), and he slashed .203/.316/.392 with three home runs and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games in complex ball. A power hitting outfielder, I actually ranked him four spots ahead of Breaux in my draft rankings (83 vs 87). He has power but I'm worried that his swing isn't geared towards making contact in pro ball, so he'll have to alter it just a little to get his barrel in the zone for longer. If he can successfully make those mechanical changes, he could end up a solid power hitter. Lastly, 17 year old Everson Pereira is an extremely advanced player for his age, having slashed .263/.322/.389 with three home runs and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games at Pulaski. He plays a great center field and makes ready contact against older competition, and once he starts to develop some power and draw some walks, he should move through the minors relatively quickly for a player signed so young.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, Short Season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Advanced Arms: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Michael King, and RHP Trevor Stephan
There are so many interesting pitchers in the Yankees system, so I'm just going to move through the system from top to bottom. The advanced pitchers, all right handed, show a good mix of skills; some are starters, some relievers, some get by on command, and some just overpower their opponents. 24 year old Jonathan Loaisiga, whose name I am finally learning to spell, is the most recognizable name for numerous reasons. The 5'11" Nicaraguan isn't the biggest guy but comes in with a mid 90's fastball and an equally dangerous curveball/changeup combination, all of which he commands very well. He bounced around quite a bit in 2018, overall posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a wicked 67/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between one rehab start in complex ball and time split between High A Tampa and AA Trenton. He also made it into nine major league games, posting a respectable 5.11 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings. With his command of three good pitches, he is ready to take over as a major league starter full time if the Yankees decide to use him to replace Sonny Gray, with the ultimate projection of being a mid-rotation starter. 24 year old Chance Adams, for the first time in his career, did not dominate the minors in 2018. At AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre this year, he posted a 4.78 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 113/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, also tossing 7.2 major league innings with a 7.04 ERA and four strikeouts and walks apiece. His stuff and control are both a bit closer to average than Loaisiga, so he has a chance to be a fifth starter but more likely ends up one of those long relievers that the Yankees (smartly) love to use. 24 year old Domingo Acevedo has been a highly regarded prospect since forever, missing a lot of time to injuries along the way. In 2018, he posted a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings between short season ball and Trenton, battling blister problems along the way. The huge 6'7" Dominican sits in the mid 90's with good command and decent secondaries, but he naturally struggles with consistency because he can't stay healthy. A healthy Acevedo can be a useful mid-rotation starter, but he probably ends up a hard throwing reliever if that doesn't materialize; he can run it up to 103 in short stints. 23 year old Michael King, statistically, had the best season in the minors, at least statistically, this year by going 11-5 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings between Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre. That success came from his advanced pitchability which should make him a serviceable #4 or #5 starter, even though his stuff is just average. A New Englander out of Boston College, his instincts on the mound give him a shot to crack the Yankee rotation in 2019, if not with the highest ceiling. 23 year old Trevor Stephan was just drafted out of Arkansas in the third round (92nd overall) in 2017, posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 140/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings between Tampa and Trenton. He was better at Tampa, the lower level, but held his own in Trenton with a similar skill set to King. He's a bit bigger than King and throws a better slider, but his command and pitchability aren't quite as advanced.
Mid Level Arms: RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Nick Nelson, and RHP Clarke Schmidt
The middle of the system naturally features more upside and more risk, again with no notable left handed pitchers. 19 year old Deivi Garcia came into the season as an exciting prospect to watch, but 14 starts later, he might just be the best pitching prospect in the system. The 5'10" righty had a fantastic breakout season, posting a 2.55 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings between Class A Charleston, High A Tampa, and AA Trenton, getting better and better with each promotion. His most notable start came on August 6th with Tampa, when he struck out 12 of the 21 hitters he faced over seven perfect innings against Clearwater (Phillies). He throws in the low 90's with room for more velocity, spins a great curveball, and has advanced command for his age and stuff. Really, the only question with Garcia is durability, as he is skinny at just 5'10" and 165 pounds, and his 74 innings in 2018 actually marked a career high. He turns just 20 in May, and while he could be major league ready at some point next season, the Yankees will likely continue to handle him cautiously to help him build up strength. When it's said and done, he has ace potential and a higher floor than most prospects his age. 23 year old Albert Abreu, like Domingo Acevedo, has struggled with injuries but shows great upside. Fighting numerous nagging injuries in 2018, he posted a 5.20 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 74/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings across four levels, though most of his season was spent at Tampa. The 6'2" righty has exceptional arm strength, throwing his fastball in the mid 90's while also tossing very good secondary stuff. He doesn't command it consistently, but that may be a product of his inability to stay healthy and get consistent reps in. The Yankees have developed him as a starter and hope he can remain one, as he is talented enough to do so, but they may be forced to move him to the bullpen where he could run his fastball up to 100. 22 year old Garrett Whitlock and 23 year old Nick Nelson were mainstays in the Tampa rotation this year, along with Abreu, both showing mid-rotation potential at the major league level. Whitlock posted a 1.86 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings between Charleston, Tampa, and Trenton, while Nelson posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 144/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at the same three levels. Like Abreu, both spent most of the season at Tampa. Both have similar stuff from the right side, though Whitlock is just a little bit more advanced with both his stuff and command, making him the better bet to develop into something useful for New York. 22 year old Clarke Schmidt was a first round pick (16th overall) out of South Carolina in 2017 despite having recently undergone Tommy John surgery, so he didn't get his pro career started until 2018. The Yankees were very cautious with the 6'1" righty, limiting him to eight appearances where he had a 3.09 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 30/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings of rehab work in complex and short season ball. There is no question about his stuff, with a low to mid 90's sinker and a great array of secondary pitches, all of which he can command moderately well. Once fully healthy in 2019, he should be a fast riser through the system and could be a mid-rotation starter shortly.
The Youngest Arms: RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Nolan Martinez, and RHP Juan Then
At this time last year, Deivi Garcia would have been classified in this group, and he broke out in a big way to become arguably the system's top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to be active in the international market and have another group of talented young pitchers coming up through the bottom of the system, and any of them could be 2019's Garcia. Many of these pitchers have high ceilings, but as with any teenage pitchers, the risk is very high, with potential injuries or failures to hone command being likely obstacles. 19 year old Roansy Contreras began to break out in 2018, posting a 2.42 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 60/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings between Short Season Staten Island and Class A Charleston. He's raw with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, the same building blocks Garcia had last year, with the best place for improvement being his command and his changeup. He's a long way off, but further development in those two areas could make him a mid-rotation starter at the major league level or better. 20 year old Luis Gil pitched well as well, posting a 1.96 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between rookie level Pulaski and Staten Island. He throws harder than Contreras but his command is very much a work in progress, as he struggles to locate his pitches and hurts himself with walks. He has a high ceiling but at 20 years old, it's time for him to show at least some feel for the strike zone. 19 year old Luis Medina spent the year at Pulaski and was hit around a little, posting a 6.25 ERA, a 2.17 WHIP, and a 47/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings. His stuff is as good as anybody's in the system, tossing and upper 90's fastball with a great curveball/changeup combination, but his command is behind even Gil's as he simply cannot throw strikes. He's constantly falling behind in the count and then gets hit when he leaves pitches over the plate, but if he could at least somewhat know where the ball is going, he could start missing bats at staggering rates. He could be anything from a future ace to an A ball flameout, so his 2019 will be important to track. 19 year old Matt Sauer spent the year at Staten Island and posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings, showing more command and pitchability and less stuff than the two Luis's ahead of him. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a good curveball and plenty of arm strength, looking like a classic mid-rotation prospect with his fair share of work to do given that he's still a teenager. 20 year old Nolan Martinez has been slow to get his career moving, just making it to full season ball this year after being drafted in the third round (98th overall) out of high school in California in 2016. This year, he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings between Staten Island and Charleston, looking a lot better in Staten Island than Charleston. He's a projectable arm with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but he's still raw despite a few years of experience. The Yankees will continue to run him out as a starter but the bullpen may be in his future. Lastly, I really like 18 year old Juan Then. The skinny 6'1" righty posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings in complex ball, showing great strike-throwing ability for his age to go along with pretty good stuff. He's going to add more velocity to his low 90's fastball and he already has good feel for a changeup, with his command and pitchability proving to be beyond his years. Definitely watch Then in 2019.
The Hitters: OF Estevan Florial, SS Thairo Estrada, C Anthony Seigler, C Josh Breaux, OF Ryder Green, and OF Everson Pereira
The Yankees really don't have much position player depth, with only one true impact prospect and only a couple that I could really see evolving into impact prospects. The big name right now is 21 year old Estevan Florial, a toolsy outfielder with a high ceiling. He spent 2018 split between High A Tampa and complex ball rehab, slashing .283/.377/.422 overall but just .255/.354/.361 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 87/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at Tampa when you take out his complex ball work. He has both power and speed, and his plate discipline took a step forward this year, but he hasn't been able to put everything together quite yet and is still producing pedestrian numbers. The Yankees hope a healthy 2019 will be the year where he puts it all together and potentially ends up in the Bronx, where he could be an impact player. For now though, we're still playing wait and see as to whether he can get to his power enough to make an impact. 22 year old Thairo Estrada missed most of 2018 with a back injury, slashing .192/.210/.231 with 17 strikeouts to zero walks in the 18 games he did get into between Tampa and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He lacks power but gets on base consistently when healthy, and with his solid glove at shortstop, he has a high floor as a utility infielder in New York. If he can continue to get on base consistently at the major league level and the Yankees can find a spot for him, he could start, and on a less competitive team he could be looking at competing for a starting spot out of spring training. However, he's a Yankee for now, so utility infielder is his future for now. 19 year old Anthony Seigler was the Yankees' first round pick (23rd overall) out of a Georgia high school this year, then slashed .266/.379/.342 with a home run and a 12/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games between complex ball and rookie level Pulaski in his debut, looking better at the lower level. He's a competent defender who should stick as a catcher, and while his bat looks like hit over power at this point, there's more for him to tap into. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick when the Yankees made it, having ranked him 44th on my draft rankings, but if the Yankees can develop his bat while maintaining his defense, they could have a starting catcher on their hands. 21 year old Josh Breaux was the second round pick (61st overall) right after Seigler, coming from a Texas JuCo. He's also a catcher, and while there is significant risk that he ends up at first base rather than behind the plate, he has more power than Seigler but has more swing and miss, fitting the description of a high ceiling/low floor prospect. The power is real but I'm definitely concerned about his ability to get to it consistently, especially if he has to move off of catcher and his bat has to carry him. After taking Breaux, the Yankees took 18 year old Ryder Green out of a Knoxville high school in the third round (97th overall), and he slashed .203/.316/.392 with three home runs and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games in complex ball. A power hitting outfielder, I actually ranked him four spots ahead of Breaux in my draft rankings (83 vs 87). He has power but I'm worried that his swing isn't geared towards making contact in pro ball, so he'll have to alter it just a little to get his barrel in the zone for longer. If he can successfully make those mechanical changes, he could end up a solid power hitter. Lastly, 17 year old Everson Pereira is an extremely advanced player for his age, having slashed .263/.322/.389 with three home runs and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games at Pulaski. He plays a great center field and makes ready contact against older competition, and once he starts to develop some power and draw some walks, he should move through the minors relatively quickly for a player signed so young.
Monday, September 10, 2018
Top 2018 Minor League Pitchers
With the 2018 minor league season coming to a close, I have gathered the top hitting and pitching performers across the minor leagues. The selections for these awards were made regardless of prospect status or minor league level(s), though park and league environments were considered. Below are the pitcher awards.
Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Winner: RHP Michael King (New York Yankees)
11-5, 1.79 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 152/29 K/BB in 161.1 IP at High A, AA, and AAA
While predicting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win the position player award pre-2018 may not have been all that far fetched, Michael King's season here comes as a complete surprise. He was solid last year at Class A Greensboro (11-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), but he was also a 22 year old facing younger competition. The Rhode Island native and former 12th round pick out of Boston College in 2016 was traded to who I presume is his arch nemesis, the New York Yankees, before the 2018 season and he began the year with High A Tampa. In seven starts, King went 1-3 but with a 1.79 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 45 and walking 10 in 40.1 innings. Quickly promoted to AA Trenton just before his 23rd birthday, he kept on rolling by going 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 12 games (11 starts), striking out 76 and walking just 13 in 82 innings. The Yankees gave him another promotion on up to AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he put up six of his best starts of the season: 4-0, 1.15 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 31/6 K/BB in 39 innings. Together, that's a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and 152 strikeouts to just 29 walks over 161.1 innings, and an elevation in prospect status from "possible fifth starter" to likely 2019 MLB contributor. Throughout the season, he allowed more than three earned runs in just one of his 25 games (24 starts), and just three times all year did he allow more than two earned runs. Perhaps his best start of the season came on June 30th in AA, when he tossed a complete game, three hit, no walk shutout against strong New Hampshire (Blue Jays AA) while striking out eleven Fisher Cats. He also came an out away from a complete game shutout against Daytona Beach (Reds High A) back on May 9th and threw six perfect innings against Syracuse (Nationals AAA) on August 29th. The only knock on his big season may be the high number of unearned runs (eleven), which put his RA9 at a more human 2.40.
Runner-Up: LHP David Parkinson (Philadelphia Phillies)
11-1, 1.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 141/35 K/BB in 124.1 IP at Class A and High A
The Phillies took Parkinson in the 12th round of the 2017 draft out of Ole Miss (though they did go over slot by signing him for $250,000, roughly that of a sixth round pick), and they assigned him to Class A Lakewood to begin the season. It was a rather conservative assignment and he proved it by just dominating the league in his 17 starts, going 8-1 with a 1.51 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 115/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. When they finally promoted him up to the more age-appropriate High A Clearwater Threshers, he somehow got even better, 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 29 innings. He never allowed more than four earned runs in any single start and allowed more than two in just three of his 22 games (21 starts), giving his teams the chance to win every time he was out there. From May 14th to June 25th, while back in Class A, he tossed 35.2 consecutive scoreless innings (though he allowed three unearned runs on May 28th), including possibly his best performance of the season when he shut down Hagerstown (Nationals Class A) one just one hit and no walks over seven shutout innings, picking up nine strikeouts. Like King, he did allow eleven unearned runs, though seven of them came in one appearance on April 23rd. With the unearned runs, his RA9 is 2.24, but he falls below King because King threw 37 more innings, had a much lower WHIP (0.91 to 1.01), and because Parkinson pitched his entire season in pitcher-friendly parks.
Honorable Mention: RHP Parker Dunshee (Oakland Athletics)
13-6, 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 163/31 K/BB in 150.2 IP at High A and AA
Dunshee has been absolutely un-hittable since he was drafted in the seventh round in 2017 out of Wake Forest as a senior. After getting roughed up a little bit in his first pro game (consider it a warm-up), he tossed 38.1 shutout innings in Short Season ball on just 15 hits, eight walks, and 45 strikeouts (0.60 WHIP). However, this write up is about 2018, not 2017. To begin this season, he was assigned to Stockton in the High A California League, a notorious hitters' league where nearly every park is a hitters' park. Apparently nobody told Dunshee, as he went 6-2 with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 82/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings, earning a promotion up to AA Midland in the slightly pitcher-friendly Texas League. His numbers got even better, as he went 7-4 with a 2.01 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 81/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings. Perhaps what was most remarkable about his season was his consistency, as even during his run through the California League, he never allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 12 games (10 starts), even when he had to pitch in Lancaster, arguably the top hitters' park in the minors. In AA, he was tagged for four runs on July 7th (albeit in eight innings), but he closed out the season on a remarkable run that saw him go 6-1 with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over his final seven starts, striking out 45 and walking 11 in 48 innings. Arguable his best start of the season came in his second to last, when he tossed 7.1 shutout, no-hit innings against Corpus Christi (Astros AA) while walking two and striking out seven. Now, if you take out that first pro appearance (we'll call it a warm-up), Dunshee's career minor league numbers are as follows: 14-6, 1.86 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 208/39 K/BB in 191 innings, 70 of which came in the very tough California League.
Others
RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, 7-3, 2.10 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 120/8 K/BB in 90 IP at High A and AA)
Paddack falls to fourth on this list because he only threw 90 innings, but his return from missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery has been pitch-for-pitch as good as anybody's. He also had to navigate the High A California League and handled it exceptionally well (4-1, 2.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 83/4 K/BB), then was even better in AA (3-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 37/4 K/BB). The season also began with 24.2 consecutive shutout innings. At this point, the Austin, Texas native's career numbers rival Dunshee's: 13-6, 1.82 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 230/20 K/BB in 177.2 innings.
RHP Denyi Reyes (Red Sox, 12-5, 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 145/19 K/BB in 155.2 IP at Class A and High A
Reyes mostly earns this spot with his amazing performance in Class A Greenville: 10-3, 1.89 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 122/13 K/BB in 123.2 innings. Promoted to High A Salem, he maintained some dominance, going 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over six starts, striking out 23 and walking six in 32 innings. Overall, few minor leaguers were better at keeping runners off the bases as well as keeping them from scoring, though he did allow twelve unearned runs to bring his RA9 up to 2.66. At no point in the season did he allow more than three earned runs in any of his 27 games (24 starts). Like Dunshee and Paddack, his career numbers also have the wow factor: 32-7, 2.12 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 286/33 K/BB in 327.1 innings.
LHP Patrick Sandoval (Angels, 11-1, 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 145/29 K/BB, 122.1 IP at Class A, High A, and AA)
Sandoval was a breakout prospect this year who pitched for four different minor league teams at three different levels, doing exceptionally at all four. He saw success at Class A Quad Cities (7-1, 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 71/11 K/BB), High A Buies Creek (2-0, 2.74, 0.70, 26/4), High A Inland Empire (1-0, 0.00, 0.82, 21/6) and AA Mobile (1-0, 1.37, 1.02, 27/8). Together, that gave him a 2.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP as he struck out over 30% of his opponents along the way.
LHP Zac Lowther (Orioles, 8-4, 2.14 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 151/35 K/BB in 123.2 IP at Class A and High A)
The Orioles struggle to develop pitching prospects, but Lowther has been a success story so far. Drafted last year in the Competitive Balance Round B out of Xavier, he put up a 1.66 ERA at Short Season Aberdeen last year before beginning 2018 at Class A Delmarva. There, he made a mockery of the league by going 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 51/9 K/BB over 31 innings before a promotion to High A Frederick. He kept on rolling there, going 5-3 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP while striking out 100 and walking 26 in 92.2 innings. That brings his career minor league ERA and WHIP to 2.02 and 0.94, respectively.
RHP Rico Garcia (Rockies, 13-9, 2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 162/42 K/BB in 167 IP at High A and AA)
Garcia's numbers are better than they look on the surface. He started at High A Lancaster, which is the most extreme hitters' park in the most extreme hitters' league in the minors, yet he still went a respectable 7-7 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 101 and walking 22 in 100 innings. It showed in his splits, with a 6.11 ERA at home and a 1.95 ERA on the road despite pitching in mostly hitters' parks even on the road. Up at AA Hartford in a more neutral environment, his numbers looked much better, as he went 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 67 innings, striking out 61 to 20 walks. His ability to post a sub-3.00 ERA for the season despite pitching nearly two thirds of it as a member of the Lancaster JetHawks is pretty notable.
Bonus Reliever
Austen Williams (Nationals, 3-3, 1.19 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 89/17 K/BB in 68 IP at AA and AAA)
I wanted to put a spot in here for a reliever, as starters (rightly) get all the glory in awards like this, but Nationals' prospect Austen Williams had a year to remember from the bullpen. He had a huge year as a starter in 2015 (2.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP across three levels), but he stalled in 2016 (5.45 ERA) and 2017 (5.52) before transitioning to the bullpen for 2018. He has taken off in that role, beginning with an exceptional run through the AA Eastern League (1.39 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 69/13 K/BB in 51.2 innings) before a promotion to AAA Syracuse. He was even better there, posting a 0.55 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 20/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.1 innings. He went multiple innings in most of his relief appearances and had some pretty great games. His best run of the year came sandwiched around his promotion from AA to AAA, as from July 24th to August 13th, he tossed 11.2 shutout innings on no hits, one walk, and 15 strikeouts. You read that correctly: just one baserunner, a walk, in 11.2 innings.
Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Winner: RHP Michael King (New York Yankees)
11-5, 1.79 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 152/29 K/BB in 161.1 IP at High A, AA, and AAA
While predicting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win the position player award pre-2018 may not have been all that far fetched, Michael King's season here comes as a complete surprise. He was solid last year at Class A Greensboro (11-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), but he was also a 22 year old facing younger competition. The Rhode Island native and former 12th round pick out of Boston College in 2016 was traded to who I presume is his arch nemesis, the New York Yankees, before the 2018 season and he began the year with High A Tampa. In seven starts, King went 1-3 but with a 1.79 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 45 and walking 10 in 40.1 innings. Quickly promoted to AA Trenton just before his 23rd birthday, he kept on rolling by going 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 12 games (11 starts), striking out 76 and walking just 13 in 82 innings. The Yankees gave him another promotion on up to AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he put up six of his best starts of the season: 4-0, 1.15 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 31/6 K/BB in 39 innings. Together, that's a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and 152 strikeouts to just 29 walks over 161.1 innings, and an elevation in prospect status from "possible fifth starter" to likely 2019 MLB contributor. Throughout the season, he allowed more than three earned runs in just one of his 25 games (24 starts), and just three times all year did he allow more than two earned runs. Perhaps his best start of the season came on June 30th in AA, when he tossed a complete game, three hit, no walk shutout against strong New Hampshire (Blue Jays AA) while striking out eleven Fisher Cats. He also came an out away from a complete game shutout against Daytona Beach (Reds High A) back on May 9th and threw six perfect innings against Syracuse (Nationals AAA) on August 29th. The only knock on his big season may be the high number of unearned runs (eleven), which put his RA9 at a more human 2.40.
Runner-Up: LHP David Parkinson (Philadelphia Phillies)
11-1, 1.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 141/35 K/BB in 124.1 IP at Class A and High A
The Phillies took Parkinson in the 12th round of the 2017 draft out of Ole Miss (though they did go over slot by signing him for $250,000, roughly that of a sixth round pick), and they assigned him to Class A Lakewood to begin the season. It was a rather conservative assignment and he proved it by just dominating the league in his 17 starts, going 8-1 with a 1.51 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 115/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. When they finally promoted him up to the more age-appropriate High A Clearwater Threshers, he somehow got even better, 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 29 innings. He never allowed more than four earned runs in any single start and allowed more than two in just three of his 22 games (21 starts), giving his teams the chance to win every time he was out there. From May 14th to June 25th, while back in Class A, he tossed 35.2 consecutive scoreless innings (though he allowed three unearned runs on May 28th), including possibly his best performance of the season when he shut down Hagerstown (Nationals Class A) one just one hit and no walks over seven shutout innings, picking up nine strikeouts. Like King, he did allow eleven unearned runs, though seven of them came in one appearance on April 23rd. With the unearned runs, his RA9 is 2.24, but he falls below King because King threw 37 more innings, had a much lower WHIP (0.91 to 1.01), and because Parkinson pitched his entire season in pitcher-friendly parks.
Honorable Mention: RHP Parker Dunshee (Oakland Athletics)
13-6, 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 163/31 K/BB in 150.2 IP at High A and AA
Dunshee has been absolutely un-hittable since he was drafted in the seventh round in 2017 out of Wake Forest as a senior. After getting roughed up a little bit in his first pro game (consider it a warm-up), he tossed 38.1 shutout innings in Short Season ball on just 15 hits, eight walks, and 45 strikeouts (0.60 WHIP). However, this write up is about 2018, not 2017. To begin this season, he was assigned to Stockton in the High A California League, a notorious hitters' league where nearly every park is a hitters' park. Apparently nobody told Dunshee, as he went 6-2 with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 82/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings, earning a promotion up to AA Midland in the slightly pitcher-friendly Texas League. His numbers got even better, as he went 7-4 with a 2.01 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 81/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings. Perhaps what was most remarkable about his season was his consistency, as even during his run through the California League, he never allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 12 games (10 starts), even when he had to pitch in Lancaster, arguably the top hitters' park in the minors. In AA, he was tagged for four runs on July 7th (albeit in eight innings), but he closed out the season on a remarkable run that saw him go 6-1 with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over his final seven starts, striking out 45 and walking 11 in 48 innings. Arguable his best start of the season came in his second to last, when he tossed 7.1 shutout, no-hit innings against Corpus Christi (Astros AA) while walking two and striking out seven. Now, if you take out that first pro appearance (we'll call it a warm-up), Dunshee's career minor league numbers are as follows: 14-6, 1.86 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 208/39 K/BB in 191 innings, 70 of which came in the very tough California League.
Others
RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, 7-3, 2.10 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 120/8 K/BB in 90 IP at High A and AA)
Paddack falls to fourth on this list because he only threw 90 innings, but his return from missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery has been pitch-for-pitch as good as anybody's. He also had to navigate the High A California League and handled it exceptionally well (4-1, 2.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 83/4 K/BB), then was even better in AA (3-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 37/4 K/BB). The season also began with 24.2 consecutive shutout innings. At this point, the Austin, Texas native's career numbers rival Dunshee's: 13-6, 1.82 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 230/20 K/BB in 177.2 innings.
RHP Denyi Reyes (Red Sox, 12-5, 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 145/19 K/BB in 155.2 IP at Class A and High A
Reyes mostly earns this spot with his amazing performance in Class A Greenville: 10-3, 1.89 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 122/13 K/BB in 123.2 innings. Promoted to High A Salem, he maintained some dominance, going 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over six starts, striking out 23 and walking six in 32 innings. Overall, few minor leaguers were better at keeping runners off the bases as well as keeping them from scoring, though he did allow twelve unearned runs to bring his RA9 up to 2.66. At no point in the season did he allow more than three earned runs in any of his 27 games (24 starts). Like Dunshee and Paddack, his career numbers also have the wow factor: 32-7, 2.12 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 286/33 K/BB in 327.1 innings.
LHP Patrick Sandoval (Angels, 11-1, 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 145/29 K/BB, 122.1 IP at Class A, High A, and AA)
Sandoval was a breakout prospect this year who pitched for four different minor league teams at three different levels, doing exceptionally at all four. He saw success at Class A Quad Cities (7-1, 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 71/11 K/BB), High A Buies Creek (2-0, 2.74, 0.70, 26/4), High A Inland Empire (1-0, 0.00, 0.82, 21/6) and AA Mobile (1-0, 1.37, 1.02, 27/8). Together, that gave him a 2.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP as he struck out over 30% of his opponents along the way.
LHP Zac Lowther (Orioles, 8-4, 2.14 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 151/35 K/BB in 123.2 IP at Class A and High A)
The Orioles struggle to develop pitching prospects, but Lowther has been a success story so far. Drafted last year in the Competitive Balance Round B out of Xavier, he put up a 1.66 ERA at Short Season Aberdeen last year before beginning 2018 at Class A Delmarva. There, he made a mockery of the league by going 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 51/9 K/BB over 31 innings before a promotion to High A Frederick. He kept on rolling there, going 5-3 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP while striking out 100 and walking 26 in 92.2 innings. That brings his career minor league ERA and WHIP to 2.02 and 0.94, respectively.
RHP Rico Garcia (Rockies, 13-9, 2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 162/42 K/BB in 167 IP at High A and AA)
Garcia's numbers are better than they look on the surface. He started at High A Lancaster, which is the most extreme hitters' park in the most extreme hitters' league in the minors, yet he still went a respectable 7-7 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 101 and walking 22 in 100 innings. It showed in his splits, with a 6.11 ERA at home and a 1.95 ERA on the road despite pitching in mostly hitters' parks even on the road. Up at AA Hartford in a more neutral environment, his numbers looked much better, as he went 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 67 innings, striking out 61 to 20 walks. His ability to post a sub-3.00 ERA for the season despite pitching nearly two thirds of it as a member of the Lancaster JetHawks is pretty notable.
Bonus Reliever
Austen Williams (Nationals, 3-3, 1.19 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 89/17 K/BB in 68 IP at AA and AAA)
I wanted to put a spot in here for a reliever, as starters (rightly) get all the glory in awards like this, but Nationals' prospect Austen Williams had a year to remember from the bullpen. He had a huge year as a starter in 2015 (2.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP across three levels), but he stalled in 2016 (5.45 ERA) and 2017 (5.52) before transitioning to the bullpen for 2018. He has taken off in that role, beginning with an exceptional run through the AA Eastern League (1.39 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 69/13 K/BB in 51.2 innings) before a promotion to AAA Syracuse. He was even better there, posting a 0.55 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 20/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.1 innings. He went multiple innings in most of his relief appearances and had some pretty great games. His best run of the year came sandwiched around his promotion from AA to AAA, as from July 24th to August 13th, he tossed 11.2 shutout innings on no hits, one walk, and 15 strikeouts. You read that correctly: just one baserunner, a walk, in 11.2 innings.
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