2021 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs had a pretty diverse draft this year, grabbing one from each of the four major demographics (prep/college hitter/pitcher) with their first four picks. In the past, they've targeted pitchers that throw hard such as Brendon Little, Ryan Jensen, Burl Carraway, and Luke Little to name a few, but even with fireballers like Ty Madden, Gavin Williams, Ryan Cusick, and Chase Petty still on the board, they opted to break from their trend a little bit and get Jordan Wicks, who does not throw hard but stands out for his changeup. Next, they grabbed a prep bat from my high school in the second round, and in the fourth made one of my favorite picks of the entire draft. To save money for their two big overslot picks (preps James Triantos and Drew Gray), they later focused on college performers and five of their last six picks on day two were born in 1998. Easily my favorite pick of the draft for the Cubs was fourth rounder Christian Franklin.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-21: LHP Jordan Wicks, Kansas State. My rank: #31.
I wasn't huge on Jordan Wicks, but a lot of teams in the teens really liked him and the Cubs must have been excited just to see him available outside the top twenty. He put himself on the map with an excellent 2020 season, allowing just one run over 26 innings (0.35 ERA) while striking out 26 to just four walks. Wicks was hit a little bit harder in Big 12 play in 2021 and finished with a 3.70 ERA and a 118/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 92.1 innings, but still impressed evaluators enough to be considered the near-consensus best left handed pitching prospect in college baseball. The 6'3" lefty doesn't throw crazy hard, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 94, but the pitch plays up with high spin rates and ride. His main weapon is arguably the best changeup in the class, a plus-plus fader that just up and dies on its way to the plate. The central Arkansas native's curveball and slider were previously distant third and fourth pitches, but this spring they took a step forward to average or at times a tick above. Everything plays up because he has above average command and is a dogged competitor, throwing all of his pitches with conviction and pounding the strike zone. Those intangibles should enable him to work his way up through the minors rather quickly, and he could reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter soon. The lack of a plus breaker probably keeps him from being a #1 or #2, though it's hard to see the entire package allowing him to be anything less than a back-end guy. He signed at slot value for $3.13 million.

2-56: 3B James Triantos, James Madison HS [VA]. My rank: #62.
This is a unique one for me, because I played baseball at Madison from 2012-2015 and used to go to the Triantos house to hit in the batting cage in their back yard. James was only about twelve years old when I used to go over there with some of the other Madison players and I've since moved from Virginia to Texas, so I don't have any extra insight on his skillset, but it's still a fun connection for me. Triantos is the first player drafted out of my high school since Andy McGuire in 2013, who was two years ahead of me, and the second highest pick in school history behind 1971 second overall pick Jay Franklin. Originally a member of the 2022 class, he reclassified to 2021 to be age-appropriate and a massive spring catapulted him into top 100 conversation relatively late. He absolutely demolished northern Virginia pitching with above average raw power to all fields, whipping the barrel through the zone with great leverage and a swing path that allows him to make solid contact even when he's not on time. The hit tool has held up extremely well this spring, though it's relatively untested against higher level arms and the Cubs are showing a little bit of faith by taking him this high and giving him this large of a bonus. He shows a plus arm that helped him serve as the Warhawk ace this spring and throw a complete game in the state championship game, but he lacks the range to stick at shortstop and profiles better as a third baseman. Triantos is a hard worker who has been working out regularly since at least when I knew him as a pre-teenager, so he should make the most of his ability in pro baseball. He signed for $2.1 million, which was $820,000 above slot value.

3-93: LHP Drew Gray, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #166.
Here is a semi-hometown pick. Drew Gray is from Swansea, Illinois, just outside of St. Louis, and he transferred from Belleville High School to the IMG Academy this year to increase his stock. Gray was actually a position player until recently, only beginning to seriously focus on pitching last year, so there is a lot to project on. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 93-94 early in starts but often dipping into the upper 80's towards the end. The pitch has high spin and great riding action, so the hope is that as he gets stronger and more accustomed to the mound, it will turn into a true weapon for him. The secondaries are more of a work in progress, with his breaking balls looking slurvy (albeit with high spin as well) and the changeup in its early stages. He does a great job of incorporating his legs into his delivery, though his mechanics could use a little synching up going forward. Gray had a chance to shoot up boards this spring, but nagging injuries kept him from doing so. This is exactly the kind of profile that could head to school and come out a completely different prospect, so the Cubs recognized that and are buying in early so that he can make those gains in their system. With added strength and more time to develop his offspeeds, he has a tremendous ceiling. Gray was committed to Arkansas but signed for $900,000, which was $272,100 above slot value.

4-123: OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas. My rank: #38.
This was one of the best picks in the draft in my and many others' opinions, especially considering that he signed below slot. Christian Franklin was solidly in the first round picture for me until his swing and miss issues started to bite him a bit late in the season, but even once the draft rolled around he seemed like at least a second round pick to me. I guess the industry was lower on him and he fell to the Cubs in the fourth round, who could be getting arguably the best value in the draft. He was right in the middle of the best offense in college baseball this year, slashing .274/.420/.544 with 13 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 78/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games against a very tough schedule. First we have huge raw power despite a lean 5'11" frame, as he's such a great athlete that he can channel that lean strength into big exit velocities and has now crushed 22 home runs, 27 doubles, and four triples in 141 college games, even as he's faced a steady diet of big SEC arms. He's an above average runner that channels his speed into excellent center field defense, and that strength comes back into play with a plus arm from center field. Really, the only question in the Kansas City-area native's game is around his hit tool, as he struck out at a 28.5% rate this year and he seemed to be trending in the wrong direction by the season's end. That's certainly an issue, but to me, there are so many other positives in this profile that the fourth round feels way too low, and his .402 career on-base percentage (.407 in SEC play alone this year) shows that he can absolutely handle advanced pitching. He signed for $425,000, which was $39,500 below slot value.

5-154: SS Liam Spence, Tennessee. Unranked.
Liam Spence travelled a long way to get to Chicago. A product of Geelong, Australia (about 40 miles outside Melbourne), he began his college career at Central Arizona before transferring to Tennessee. The Australian has been an absolute hit machine for the Volunteers, slashing .338/.471/.459 with six home runs and a 60/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games since the start of 2020 and serving as their primary leadoff man during the team's College World Series run. He has a quick right handed stroke that enables him to find the barrel very consistently against good pitching, and there is some moderate power in his skinny 6'1" frame. Spence is a very patient hitter who has walked in 23.7% of his plate appearances at Tennessee, really juicing his on-base percentages and giving him ample opportunities to use his solid speed. Given that he doesn't quite have enough glove to man shortstop every day, this is a pretty clear utility infield profile, especially given that he turned 23 in April. Spence signed for $135,000, which was $208,400 below slot value.

7-214: OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #210.
Parker Chavers was trending towards being an early pick when he slashed .319/.435/.554 with 22 home runs over his first two seasons at Coastal Carolina, but he hurt his shoulder over the offseason and didn't get into action during the shortened 2020 season. He was still talked about in the back of the five round draft, but wound up undrafted and went back to school. This year, he hit a strong .318/.407/.477 with five home runs and a career-high 14 stolen bases in 49 games, but he didn't quite put it together like scouts had hoped. Chavers shows above average raw power from a smaller 5'11" frame, and over his first two seasons in Conway, he got to it consistently in games. However, in 2021, he toned down his approach a bit and dropped his strikeout rate from 19.3% over his first two seasons to 8.8% this year, but that came at the expense of his power as his five home runs and .477 slugging percentage were both career-lows. The Montgomery, Alabama native is a plus runner that will be able to handle all three outfield spots in pro ball, so he does a lot of things well. At this point, given that he turned 23 shortly after the draft, it's hard to see him putting it all together to the point where he can play full time, but the fact that he has (at separate times) shown the ability to hit for both power and average on top of being a good runner should give him quite a few ways to contribute as a fourth outfielder down the road. He signed for $125,000, which was $81,500 below slot value.

8-244: C Casey Opitz, Arkansas. Unranked.
Casey Opitz, like Parker Chavers, was eligible last year and had looks in the back of the five round draft (and both Chavers and Opitz just turned 23 five days apart). A relatively light hitter over the first two years of his career, he elevated his stock that year by jumping out to a hot .302/.361/.509 start in the shortened season, but that's looking like more a fluke now that he hit .257/.367/.346 with two home runs and a 33/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. It's an average hit tool and an ability to handle the strike zone well against advanced pitching that stand out on offense, but the below average power limits his ceiling. Where Opitz shines, though, is one defense. The Denver-area native has a plus glove and a plus arm, making him an asset behind the plate as is, but it's not just the tools that make him special. Opitz is also a high-energy leader back there who could be called Pitching Ninja's favorite catcher, firing up his pitchers after every strikeout. Pitchers absolutely love to work with him, and just his presence in the Chicago farm system could have a very positive impact on other young pitchers. This is a fun one even without much of a ceiling. He signed for $90,000, which was $78,500 below slot value.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the low-mid major conferences (east)

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on January 1st.

We’ve completed the Power Five conferences, so now it’s time to move into some low-mid major schools. There are plenty of powerhouse programs in the east that don’t fall into the ACC, SEC, or Big Ten, including a Coastal Carolina team that won the College World Series in 2016. Some of MLB’s brightest stars came from these smaller eastern conferences, including Justin Verlander (Old Dominion), Jacob deGrom (Stetson), Corey Kluber (Stetson), Kyle Hendricks (Dartmouth), George Springer (Connecticut), and Kyle Lewis (Mercer), among many many others. Here we find a ton of interesting arms, including quite a few with first round aspirations, as well as a group of bats driven by big raw power.

1. OF Ethan Wilson, South Alabama

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 210 lbs. Born 11/7/1999. Hometown: Andalusia, AL
2019-2020: 20 HR, .330/.425/.632, 12 SB, 65/40 K/BB in 74 games.

In 2018, South Alabama outfielder Travis Swaggerty closed out an exceptional Jaguars career with a tenth overall selection to the Pirates. Three years later, Ethan Wilson has a chance to match him. The Andalusia native burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season in 2019, slashing .345/.453/.686 with 17 home runs and a 45/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games, but dropped to a more pedestrian .282/.329/.465 with three home runs and a 20/4 K/BB in the shortened 2020 season. In a class that’s shallow on college bats, Wilson is a proven commodity with some of the best in-season track record around.

Wilson is a hitter, no question about it. He produces plus raw and game power with an explosive, leveraged, and controlled left handed swing that has no problem catching up to velocity. He shows great feel for the barrel and has never actually struggled at any point in his career. To this point, he has shown some swing and miss against offspeed stuff, but scouts aren’t all that worried. As a mediocre defender who will likely end up in left field, his bat will have to carry him and few doubt that it will.

Given Wilson’s lack of defensive value, scouts need to see him continue to produce in 2021. The Sun Belt has plenty of talent, but it’s not the SEC or ACC and without ever having appeared in a major summer wood bat league, he’s fairly unproven against great pitching. Given his high swing and miss rates against offspeed stuff, that’s slightly concerning, but he can answer all those questions against South Alabama’s non-conference slate in 2021 or against schools like Coastal Carolina and Louisiana in conference play. Given that he won’t require much swing change in pro ball, he can also focus on that aspect of his game heavily once in there. Overall, it’s easy to envision a true impact hitter with 25+ home run potential and good on-base percentages, one that fits firmly in the first round.

2. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 235 lbs. Born 9/30/1999. Hometown: Fishers, IN

2019-2020: 8-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106/45 K/BB in 99.1 IP.

Southern Ohio is filled with interesting mid-major arms, but none is more interesting nor a better prospect at this point than Sam Bachman. He was solid as a freshman (3.93 ERA, 75/39 K/BB), then after getting shelled by Texas A&M to open 2020, he had a 1.71 ERA and a 28/2 K/BB across the next 21 innings to close out the season. Bachman was a solid Day One prospect at that point, but he’s had one of the loudest falls in the country and has rocketed into the first round conversation.

Bachman is unique if nothing else. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and tops out around 96 in games, but he’s been up to 99 in fall practice and his pitch data is astounding. After some stabbing motion in the back, he crouches down in his delivery and releases the ball from sidearm height despite throwing from a three quarters slot, putting absolutely tremendous ride and carry on the pitch. It’s one of the most unique fastballs in the class and is extremely difficult to square up. After that, he adds a short slider that almost functions more like a cutter, a pitch that’s above average now but could get to plus with more refinement. His changeup looks like an above average pitch as well with nice running action to the arm side.

So far, the Indianapolis-area native hasn’t gotten much in terms of big results, but as he continues to optimize his stuff, he could get there in 2021. Bachman’s command has improved from 45 in 2019 to 50 in 2020 to 55 in fall practice, and if he can stay in that above average range over a full season, he could push way up boards. His fastball, slider, and changeup all play off each other extremely well, with the unique arm slot making them very difficult to tell apart. As he refines his command, that will only get tougher. Otherwise, continued refinement of his slider is on the docket for 2021, as he could get even more effective by learning to add and subtract depth to what’s currently a pretty short breaker.

3. RHP Mason Black, Lehigh

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 210 lbs. Born 12/10/1999. Hometown: Archbald, PA

2019-2020: 4-2, 4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 57/20 K/BB in 55 IP.

The best college arm in the Northeast is not at a traditional power like Maryland, Boston College, UConn, or Bryant. Rather, Lehigh’s Mason Black has used two exceptional summers to rocket himself into the first round conversation. His numbers against Lehigh’s weaker schedule have been decent (4.09 ERA, 57/20 K/BB), but he really broke out in the Cape Cod League in 2019 with a 1.43 ERA and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings as a rising sophomore. He backed that up with another fantastic run through the South Florida Collegiate League in 2020, with a 0.64 ERA, just a 0.71 WHIP, and a 42/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings.

Black hasn’t quite gotten it done in the Patriot League, but there’s every reason to believe he will in 2021. His three pitch arsenal is highlighted by a low to mid 90’s fastball that has peaked at 97-99 in short stints, playing up further because he gets good extension and downward plane on it. His breaking ball can fluctuate between a slider and a curveball, but it’s best when it’s more of a true slider and flashes plus potential. Lastly, his changeup is advanced as well, showing nice vertical drop and giving him a third swing and miss offering. Together with solid-average command, Black can dominate anybody at his best.

In 2021, Black will have to put up better numbers in the Patriot League. His loud summers have him firmly in the first round, but to stay there, he can’t have a third consecutive “solid” college season against mediocre competition. He needs to mow his opponents down. His inconsistency does create some reliever risk, but with a long 6’3″ frame, three potential plus pitches, and good-enough command, he has every chance to not only start, but pitch near the top of a rotation. A smart kid as well, the Scranton-area native is majoring in bioengineering and has floated the idea of medical school if baseball doesn’t work out.

4. C Hunter Goodman, Memphis

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 210 lbs. Born 10/8/1999. Hometown: Arlington, TN

2019-2020: 21 HR, .333/.378/.612, 13 SB, 71/14 K/BB in 72 games.

Hunter Goodman gets a tough draw coming in fourth on this list, getting stuck behind an offensive stud and a couple of electric arms. Still, we’re talking about a very exciting profile here. Goodman has absolutely raked at Memphis, slashing .333/.378/.612 with 21 home runs in 72 games, including eight in sixteen games in 2020. He also showed well in the Cape Cod League in 2019, where he hit .272/.287/.487 with eight home runs in 44 games. From a catcher, that’s a track record of in-game power that you’ll take eleven times out of ten, but we do have some questions.

Any conversation around Goodman begins with his power. He shows plus to even plus-plus raw power in his 6’1″ frame, and to this point, that has played up to true plus power in games as well. He has a smooth, leveraged right handed swing that makes the ball jump off his bat, though in games he can stray away from it time to time and get choppy. The hit tool is more of a question. He has struck out in north of 20% of his plate appearances in college, and on the Cape, it was up to 27.5%. The Memphis-area native is also a very aggressive hitter that rarely walks, just 4.2% at Memphis and 1.8% (!) on the Cape. It says a lot about Goodman’s feel for the barrel that he’s produced like he’s had with such a hyper-aggressive approach, even on the Cape, but it still has to worry you a bit for pro ball.

Defensively, there are more questions. Nobody questions his cannon arm that can shut down the running game when he’s accurate, and that alone gives him every chance to stick back there. The glove is still a work in progress, as he’s not the most athletic back there and lacks overall feel for the position. If Goodman can stick behind the plate, his bat is very, very attractive in the first round, but if he’s forced to first base or the outfield, the offensive bar rises. An optimist might look at Goodman’s power and see Joey Bart, who made strides with his plate discipline and defense as a junior and went second overall out of Georgia Tech in 2018. Meanwhile, a pessimist might worry about his defense and ability to get to his power and see more of Bart’s teammate, Kyle McCann, who was a much more patient (and left handed) hitter than Goodman and went in the fourth round a year later.

5. RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’6″, 255 lbs. Born 7/26/1999. Hometown: Fayetteville, NC

2018-2020: 1-4, 3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 70/32 K/BB in 68 IP.

I’ve written a lot of words about Gavin Williams over the years. He was one of the most projectable high school arms in the country coming out of Fayetteville, North Carolina back in 2017, but headed just up the road to East Carolina instead. There, he’s added a few ticks to his fastball as promised, but has never quite put it together with a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio across 68 innings, missing time with various injuries including a finger issue that limited him to three innings in 2020. He went undrafted that year, instead choosing to price himself out and bet on his natural ability.

Williams a skinny 6’5″ string bean coming out of high school, and four years later he’s listed at 6’6″, 255 pounds. He’s a big man with a big fastball to match, sitting in the low to mid 90’s with minimal effort and consistently hitting the upper 90’s. When he does reach back, he’s hit 101 in the past. That fastball comes with an above average changeup with great sink and fade, coming in with mid 80’s velocity. His curveball brings great depth, but with mid 70’s velocity that could stand to add a tick or two. His control is actually solid average, but has been inconsistent throughout his career.

Some evaluators, myself included, look at the big 6’6″ right hander and think he just needs more consistent innings. If he can stay on the mound for longer stretches at a time, I could see more consistent command and perhaps some added power on his breaking ball, but he threw just 15.2, 49.1, and 3 innings, respectively, in his three years in Greenville. At this point, it’s probably safer to project him as a reliever and let his stuff tick up from there, but I haven’t given up on him as a starter. I wouldn’t bank on it if I drafted him, but it could happen with three big league pitches and the building blocks for solid command. With a July birthday, he was young for his class last year and isn’t much older than many first-time eligible players.

6. LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati

Bat: R. Throw: L. 6′, 175 lbs. Born 9/11/1999. Hometown: Amherst, OH

2019-2020: 5-8, 5.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 104/57 K/BB in 84.1 IP.

Sam Bachman isn’t the only fast-rising mid major arm in Southwest Ohio. Cincinnati’s Evan Shawver’s stock isn’t rocketing at warp speed like Bachman’s, but the more evaluators see of him, the more they like. He was very inconsistent as a freshman, putting up a 7.15 ERA and a 69/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 61.2 innings, but looked much sharper in the shortened 2020 season: 1.59 ERA, 35/9 K/BB in 22.2 IP. Between his freshman season/short Cape run and his sophomore season/junior fall, the Cleveland-area native has dramatically reduced the baserunners around him both by limiting walks and avoiding barrels. In 2021, he’ll have a full season to show that he’s for real and here to stay.

Shawver starts with a low 90’s fastball that tops out around 97. He throws two secondaries in a slider and a changeup, both of which could be above average to plus pitches. His slider is extremely difficult to pick up out of his hand with late diving action, routinely running under right handed hitters’ hands or disappearing away from lefties. The changeup itself brings late fade, and it too is tough to pick up. Shawver had problems finding the strike zone at times as a freshman, but he dropped his walk rate from 16.6% in 2019 to 10.2% in 2020 while simultaneously cutting his opponents’ batting average nearly in half from .234 to .128.

In 2021, scouts want to see that his transition from fringy to solid average command can hold up over a full season. He’s not the biggest guy in the world, listed at a skinny six feet tall, and needs to continue to prove his durability as well, though it hasn’t been an issue yet. With three pitches that can grade out as 55 or better in addition to improving command, he has a chance to overtake Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks as the top lefty college arm in the class.

7. LHP Drake Batcho, Cincinnati

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 215 lbs. Born 4/17/2000. Hometown: Warren, OH

2019-2020: 3-5, 6.89 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 53/55 K/BB in 49.2 IP.

It’s not just Sam Bachman and Evan Shawver ready to break out in Southwest Ohio. Shawver’s teammate, Drake Batcho, is a very different prospect but comes with perhaps more upside. He arrived on campus a very raw product, and it showed; as a freshman, he ran up a 9.27 ERA and an ugly 29/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings, looking like a complete liability on the mound. He refined his stuff and command somewhat as a sophomore, and the results were considerably better: 2.16 ERA, 24/16 K/BB in 16.2 innings. Heading into 2021, if he keeps trending in this direction, he could find himself a Day One selection.

At this point, evaluators are honed in on Batcho for one big reason, and that’s his fastball. It’s a true plus pitch that sits in the low 90’s from the left side, playing up due to elite extension from a 6’4″ frame that makes it look like he’s releasing the ball right in front of your face. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup, though none is a finished product. Further refinement there will be critical for his ability to stick as a starter, as is the case with his command. Batcho’s command is presently a 40 at best, with a 21.7% walk rate for his career, another big problem.

Any team drafting Batcho needs to understand they might be getting a reliever. Presently, he has the fastball, frame, and durability to start, but he’ll need significant improvement in at least one if not two of his offspeed pitches to stick, as well as in his command. The good news is he’s young, as he was still just 19 years old when the season shut down in March. Given the true plus fastball, if he can refine even one of his offspeed pitches and get to 45 command this year, he’s a Day One prospect with a real shot at the rotation. If he doesn’t, his fastball will play extremely well out of the bullpen and he can pick one secondary pitch to work on.

8. OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 190 lbs. Born 7/25/1998. Hometown: Montgomery, AL

2018-2019: 22 HR, .319/.435/.554, 19 SB, 101/78 K/BB in 119 games.

The top undrafted college position player in 2020, Parker Chavers already has plenty of track record. He raked to the tune of a .319/.435/.554 line with 22 home runs and 19 stolen bases over his first two seasons at Coastal Carolina, then showed well in the Cape Cod League with a .274/.354/.478 line and seven home runs in 44 games in 2019. Shoulder problems kept him out of the shortened 2020 season, so evaluators were not willing to meet his asking price and he went undrafted. Already relatively old for the 2020 class, he’ll turn 23 shortly after the 2021 draft.

Chavers is a proverbial toolbox with an exciting combination of power, speed, and track record. Despite only standing 5’11”, he produces above average raw power that he gets to consistently in games, a product of raw strength and athleticism in addition to feel for the barrel. He also brings plus speed to the table, enabling him to stick in center field even without plus instincts. A relatively patient hitter, the Montgomery native has also walked in 14.9% of his plate appearances in Conway.

The main concern with Chavers is the consistency of his hit tool. He’s gotten to his power consistently at Coastal and on the Cape, but he also swings and misses, with a 19.3% strikeout rate at Coastal and 24.3% on the Cape. Now that he’ll be over 22 and a half for the whole 2021 season, evaluators will want to see that come down considerably. If he can get that strikeout rate down and maintain his big production, he can push himself back into the top 100 picks, but continued strikeout concerns could push him farther down in the draft given his age.

9. SS Josh Hood, Pennsylvania

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 185 lbs. Born 7/21/2000. Hometown: Vineland, NJ

2019-2020: 8 HR, .320/.386/.539, 1 SB, 30/20 K/BB in 49 games.

No Ivy Leaguer has gone in the top eight rounds since the Diamondbacks picked Brent Jones out of Cornell in the fourth round in 2014, but Penn’s Josh Hood has a good chance to do just that. After homering off Jack Leiter at the end of his senior year of high school, he burst onto the scene in Philadelphia with a .331/.411/.580 line, eight home runs, and a sharp 21/20 strikeout to walk ratio as a freshman in 2019. He dropped to a quiet .263/.256/.342 with nine strikeouts and no walks in eight games as a sophomore, then rebounded in the Coastal Plain League this summer to hit .280/.343/.495 with five home runs in 26 games.

Hood’s huge freshman season was driven by his feel to hit. The South Jersey native has great bat to ball skills that helped him strike out in just 10.1% of his plate appearances that year, but he’s not just a slap hitter, showing the ability to consistently barrel the ball into the gaps and even over fences. He’s not the most physical hitter in the world at 6’1″, but his power has played up with wood bats and he looks to have room to grow into some more. Hood has gotten more aggressive as his career has progressed, but he has shown more than enough plate discipline in the past to help him tap average or better power.

As a college shortstop who will stick in the dirt, there isn’t much to dislike in Hood’s game. Between his feel to hit and burgeoning power, he has more than enough bat to start if he reaches his ceiling. If the power stalls and he winds up closer to a 45 in that regard, he still has the pure hitting ability to project as a utility man. Hood, who grew up one town over from Mike Trout’s hometown, offers an intriguing combination of floor and ceiling once you get into Day Two. Throw in the fact that he won’t turn 21 until after the draft, and you’ll have a lot of teams interested.

10. LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 200 lbs. Born 5/8/1999. Hometown: Mohegan Lake, NY

2018-2020: 12-12, 3.98 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 148/65 K/BB in 144.2 IP.

Matt Mikulski, like Parker Chavers, went undrafted as a junior in 2020, but he’s more than nine months younger than his Coastal Carolina counterpart and will only turn 22 two months before the 2021 draft. Mikulski has been used in a starting role at Fordham, where he has been solid (3.98 ERA, 148/65 K/BB in 144.2 IP), and he showed really well in a swingman role in the Cape Cod League in 2019 (1.77 ERA, 28/13 K/BB in 20.1 IP). Returning to the Bronx for his senior year, he has a chance to go early on Day Two with just a little more consistency.

Mikulski has a lot going for him, especially considering he’s a 6’2″ lefty. His fastball currently sits in the low 90’s and can bump the mid 90’s even in a starting role, topping out around 96. There are two good breaking balls in a curveball and slider, both of which are usually average and can flash above average regularly. He also throws a changeup, but it’s his fourth pitch. The New Yorker can fill the strike zone, but his strikes are often scattered and he can go through bouts of well below average command when he isn’t feeling it.

Mikulski’s delivery was pretty choppy early in his Fordham career, and though he’s smoothed it out some, it still features some head whack and jerky arm action. For that reason, combined with the inconsistency in his strikes, he might profile better as a reliever. There, he could sit more consistently in the mid 90’s with his fastball, sharpen his breaking balls a bit, and ditch the changeup, and his 45 command won’t be as much of an issue. He still has a chance to be a back-end starter if he refines the changeup and command to about a 50.

Other Interesting Small/Mid Major Options in the East

Northeast Bats

The last man out from the above list was UConn’s Pat Winkel, who actually ranked #10 until Evan Shawver’s rise up the board. Winkel had a huge freshman season for the Huskies (.318/.361/.486, 7 HR), but struggled on the Cape (.194/.243/.337, 4 HR) and missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery. He’s a solid all-around defender behind the plate, which takes significant pressure off his bat and makes that freshman season look much better. The New Haven-area native maximizes his power with raw strength and an optimal, smooth swing from the left side, though his bat speed is ordinary and the power was non-existent on the Cape until he homered three times in his last four games. He’s also very aggressive at the plate with strikeout rates well north of 20% and walk rates around 6%, and will need to tighten that up considerably in 2020. If he can, he has a chance to be a power hitting starting catcher.

Another 2019 freshman star was Manhattan’s Nick Cimillo, who hit .350/.417/.498 with seven home runs in 59 games that year. He wasn’t quite as loud in 2020 (.259/.365/.370), but there is still a lot to like. The New Yorker has above average bat to ball skills that enable him to make a lot of line drive contact, and there is some power in his 6’3″ frame as well. However, as a likely corner outfielder, he’ll need to tap that power more to move up, and his likely ceiling is as a right handed platoon bat.

Northeast Arm

On the mound, I’m most interested in Bryant’s Tyler Mattison, who was eligible as a junior in 2020. He went 14-3 with a 3.44 ERA from 2018-2019, but regressed to an 8.53 ERA in 2020 as his velocity dipped. At his best, the righty from far Upstate New York can get into the mid 90’s with run and show solid average command. At other times, though, his fastball can dip into the upper 80’s and his command can elude him, while his fringy secondary stuff isn’t enough to make up for it. For that reason, despite a 6’4″, 235 pound frame, he probably fits better in the bullpen, where his fastball could play up.

Midwest Bats

Two additional Midwest bats stand out to me. One is Wright State’s Tyler Black, who ripped .348/.465/.614 with seven home runs and a ridiculous 15/35 strikeout to walk ratio as a freshman in 2019. That dropped to .239/.340/.370 as a sophomore, but we still have an interesting one here. The Toronto native has a gerat approach at the plate, attacking hittable pitches with very little swing and miss while still drawing his walks. He also has some power in his 6’2″ frame and has tapped it in games, though the bat can be a bit streaky. He projects as a bat-first second baseman that could play full time if he taps his power more consistently.

Blake Dunn was eligible in 2020, but despite a very successful career at Western Michigan (.338/.423/.460, 7 HR, 47 SB), he went undrafted. He flashes above average raw power with a compact right handed swing, though he hasn’t tapped it much in games and didn’t hit for much impact on the Cape in 2019 (.227/.335/.287, 2 HR, 16 SB). The western Michigan native also shows plus speed and a cannon arm, making him a plus defender in center field even if his instincts play closer to average. There is upside if he can learn to tap his power more often in games, but he’ll be nearly 23 on draft day and there are plenty of younger players with upside.

Midwest Arms

Miami of Ohio’s Sam Bachman and Cincinnati’s Evan Shawver and Drake Batcho all ranked in the top seven, but Ohio has still more to give. Ohio University’s Joe Rock is another fast-rising name, bringing mid 90’s heat and quickly improving secondaries from the left side. That will capture anyone’s attention, especially given he’s 6’6″. Rock was uneven as a freshman (5.19 ERA, 41/37 K/BB in 59 IP) but struck out five of the fourteen hitters he faced on the Cape that summer while allowing just one baserunner, then missed the 2020 season. He has more to prove than most in 2021, but he’ll still be 20 on draft day and has enormous upside.

Kent State’s Max Rippl hasn’t had eye popping numbers yet (5.59 ERA, 25/20 K/BB in 29 IP), but he does have the stuff. His fastball can touch the mid 90’s in short stints and he flashes an above average downer slider, though with fringy command he probably fits best in the bullpen. His June birthday also makes him young for the class.

South Bats

South Alabama’s Ethan Wilson, Memphis’ Hunter Goodman, and Coastal’s Parker Chavers are probably the consensus one, two, and three in this category, but I have an interesting sleeper behind them. James Madison’s Kyle Novak was a freshman on my high school baseball team when I was a senior, and the exceptional feel to hit he showed at the time has carried over to his college career. In two years in Harrisonburg, he owns a .307/.382/.398 line with three home runs and a nice 28/26 strikeout to walk ratio. Novak rarely ever swings and misses and finds the barrel consistently, though at a stocky 5’8″, he’s unlikely to grow into more than 45 power. He’s a man without a position for now, having spent time at DH, first base, and second base, the latter of which is probably his only route to pro ball, so he’ll need to improve his fringy defense there. With great feel for the barrel, though, he has the most important tool.

I’ll spend one more paragraph promoting my former high school teammates. Catcher Kyle Hayes is a grad transfer at George Mason after spending four years at James Madison, and the COVID shutdown and shortened draft likely kept him from being a Day Three selection. Hayes is a defense-first catcher who blocks everything thrown in his vicinity while working well with pitchers to bring the best out of them. He always showed strong plate discipline and feel for the barrel, but a lack of power meant he slashed just .186/.314/.202 over his first three years in Harrisonburg. 2020 was looking like a different story, returning from injury to slash .385/.467/.846 with a pair of home runs in five games. If the power surge had been for real, it likely would have combined with his plus defense to make for a depth piece later in the draft. Though he turned 23 in October, he has a chance to prove his bat in 2021.

South Arms

A number of arms from the South just missed this list. Gabe Shepard was eligible as a sophomore last year as he was a full year older than much of his class, bringing a career 2.79 ERA and a 62/21 K/BB in 42 innings at Southern Miss. He’s just 5’10” but can hit the mid 90’s with his fastball, getting nice run on the pitch with long arm action. The Mobile native also shows great feel to manipulate his breaking ball, working between a shorter cutter and a slurvier slider. His control has been inconsistent but he still has a chance to start. The Campbell Camels’ Cam Cowan (say that five times fast) was also eligible in 2020, but went undrafted despite a hot start to the season (3.00 ERA, 36/4 K/BB in 24 IP). The 6’5″, 245 pound Iowa native can hit the mid 90’s with his fastball and gets great ride on the pitch, while his average changeup and slurvy slider are less exciting. With a plus fastball, big frame, and good command, he could be a back-end starter with some refinement of his offspeed stuff.

Next we have two arms who saw an uptick in velocity. Bryce McGowan hasn’t gotten results at Charlotte yet (5.75 ERA, 63/49 K/BB in 76.2 IP), but his low 90’s fastball has crept into the mid 90’s more often this fall and has climbed as high as 97-98. McGowan’s slider also flashes above average and his changeup is coming along. The command has been fringy so far, but he has a loose, athletic delivery that could be refined enough to get him to average. Jacksonville State’s Christian Edwards is yet another arm returning from eligibility in 2020, having recently touched 99 with his fastball. He adds a good slider and projects as a power reliever.

Samford’s Samuel Strickland was also eligible in 2020, bringing and exceptional career at 18-5 with a 2.85 ERA and a sharp 174/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 173.2 innings. The 6’2″ lefty lacks big stuff, sitting around 90 and topping out around 92-93 with his fastball, adding a set of fringy secondaries. He has been enormously effective in Birmingham due to above average command as well as an innate ability to change speeds and keep hitters off balance, so any step forward with his velocity or secondary stuff could make him a hot commodity very quickly.

Lastly, Austin Vernon might be the biggest draft prospect I’ve ever written about. The NC Central righty is listed at 6’8″ (!) and 295 pounds (!!), but went undrafted in 2020 after missing the season recovering from arm surgery. He shows a vicious mid 90’s fastball coming from a violent delivery with head whack and long hair flying everywhere, adding in both a slider and a curveball that flash above average with late bite. The Raleigh native is almost certainly a reliever with inconsistent command that ranges from well below average to fringe average, but if he can stay healthy, he has late inning potential.

Florida Arms

Down in the Sunshine State, we have two more arms to watch, though they’re very different. I am very, very intrigued by Jermaine Vanheyningen, who was draft eligible last year. The New Jersey native began his career at Campbell, but redshirted his only season and transferred to Florence-Darlington Tech for 2019-2020. Now, he’s at FIU and could break out in 2021. Vanheyningen stands 6’7″ and has steadily added velocity, now sitting in the low to mid 90’s as a starter and topping out at 102 (!) in bullpens. Throw in plus extension, and you have a plus-plus pitch. The secondary stuff is fringier, with an average splitter and fringy breaking balls. He struggles with command as well, and for that reason he’s almost definitely a reliever in pro ball, where he could sit in the upper 90’s and work in his splitter. If Vanheyningen gets to even 45 command, he has closer upside.

Stetson brings us Daniel Paret, who has a 3.36 ERA and a 113/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings in DeLand. The stuff is average overall, with a fastball around 90 and an average slider and changeup. His advanced instincts and solid average command make it play up from the left side, and he projects as a back-end starter.

2020 Draft: Top 10 Undrafted College Players

Every year, a couple highly regarded college prospects here and there decide to stick around an extra year, most recently guys like Mississippi State's Jake Mangum and LSU's Zach Watson and Zack Hess. This year, it obviously happened to a lot more guys, so we'll have a ton of high level talent not only heading to campus, but returning to campus next year. Below I walk through the top college prospects on my draft list to go undrafted and return to school.

Nine out of ten names are pitchers, which is a testament to the incredible depth of college pitching in this year's class. It wasn't just that run we saw in the back half of the first round (Jarvis, Cavalli, Shuster, Miller, etc.), but a truly deep class that went well past the top 100 names. With so many options available, teams didn't have to take risks on upside plays like Tommy Mace or Gavin Williams, and these kids decided to return to school to bet on themselves. Guys like Williams, Brandon Birdsell, and Trenton Denholm will still be age-appropriate come draft day, though many others will be older than their competition and Mason Erla will be a few months shy of his 24th birthday by the time the 2021 draft rolls around.

1. RHP Tommy Mace, Florida (my rank: 69)
Florida had two pitchers with draft aspirations in the shortened 2020 draft, but both Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich elected to return to school. Mace was the top college player on my list to go undrafted, with the chance to have gone as high as the second round. He was a well known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, a classic projection right hander as a 6'6" beanpole. Three years later, he's made some incremental progress, but Mace clearly believes (he would prefer the verb "knows") he has more in the tank. His fastball sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, while his cutter/slider hybrid is an effective, above average offspeed pitch and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. It's a fairly ordinary package, but there is still a lot of projection left in his lanky frame and his stuff has steadily gotten sharper throughout his career with the Gators. After putting up a 4.85 ERA and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings over his first two seasons, he improved to a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings this year, including an excellent outing against a very tough Miami lineup. As a slightly above average strike thrower, he's not nearly as raw as most projection arms, and his competitive nature helps him significantly. He'll return as the ace of one of the best rotations in college baseball next year with Leftwich and rising-sophomore Hunter Barco, perhaps second behind only Vanderbilt's one-two punch of Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Mace could have easily pitched his way into the top 50 picks with a strong run through SEC play this year, so he'll hope to do that next year. Pre-draft profile here.

2. RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina (my rank: 74)
Gavin Williams, like Tommy Mace, was a projectable 6'6" high school arm in 2017, hailing from Fayetteville, North Carolina. He hasn't made quite as much progress as Mace during his time at East Carolina, having only thrown 68 innings for the Pirates with a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. That said, he's also eight months younger and won't be much older than most of the regular juniors next year. He throws a premium mid 90's fastball that can touch triple digits in shorter stints, and with his now-filled-out 6'6", 240 pound frame, that velocity comes out pretty naturally. He adds a big, slow curveball in the low to mid 70's, one with great shape but which needs to add power. There's an above average changeup as well, which rounds out his arsenal nicely. The command is sort of shaky, but it's not terrible, and he really hasn't been on the mound all that much anyways. More consistent innings in the ECU rotation next year could do wonders for his stock, and I could see him pitching himself into the top 50 picks pretty easily with a strong stint in the rotation. He probably projects as a reliever, but the upside is certainly there and I wouldn't rule him out as a starter if he makes the necessary adjustments. One big thing he could do would be to add power to that curveball, which he is certainly capable of with his arm strength. Pre-draft profile here.

3. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State (my rank: 78)
Seth Lonsway marks a third straight pitcher who was a big name for the 2017 draft out of high school. Lonsway grew up in Celina, Ohio, a small town just off the Indiana border, and after sitting out the 2018 season, he's become a mainstay in the Buckeyes rotation. This year, he put up one of the most unique stat lines in college baseball, holding a 3.00 ERA and striking out 42 batters in just 18 innings (more than half of those he faced!) but also walked 18 in that same span, including eight in his final start against Stetson. Lonsway has an electric left arm that sits in the low to mid 90's on his fastball, getting up to 96 with relative ease. He adds a power curveball that misses bats in bunches, as well as a more lateral slider and a solid changeup. The ball explodes out of his hand and has completely confounded college hitters, but he really struggles to repeat his release point and that has led to massive command struggles. By walking eight in his final start, he didn't give pro teams much confidence he could fix that, and he's betting on himself by going back for his redshirt junior season. If his command struggles continue, teams will be more convinced that he's a reliever and he could fall out of the top 100 picks, but even cutting his walk rate to perhaps 4.5 per nine could do wonders in proving he can start. Aside from his command, really, there's no reason to believe he can't. And Ohio State will love to have him back because the Big Ten can't handle the stuff. Pre-draft profile here.

4. RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State (my rank: 82)
This one makes a lot of sense, because Kevin Abel has barely pitched since his freshman season and there were rumors he was considering returning to Corvallis even before the draft was shortened to five rounds. If you're a college baseball fan, then you definitely recognize this name, because Abel went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, knocking down LSU, Washington, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Arkansas again in order. In that last start against the Razorbacks, he tossed a compete game, two hit, ten strikeout shutout to take home the National Championship. That was all as a true freshman, but he went down with Tommy John surgery 16.1 innings into his sophomore season in 2019 and we haven't seen him since. Now, we'll be able to see Abel again (pun intended) in orange and black, and fans in Corvallis couldn't be more excited. The last time we saw him throw, the San Diego native sat in the low 90's with his fastball and added an above average curveball and a plus fading changeup, and for a freshman, he commanded it all pretty well. With natural, healthy progression, it's easy to see him having above average command at this point, but of course he's been rehabbing instead, so it's hard to say where that command is today. Either way, with a very solid three pitch mix, a 6'2" frame, and plenty of big game experience, he'll be in a great position to lead Oregon State's rotation next year. Adding a little bit of power to his curveball, which stands out more for its depth than any kind of hard bite, in addition to taking that step forward with his command, would make him a great mid-rotation starting prospect. While the three names ahead of Abel on this list have a fairly wide range of outcomes, I see Abel as the most straightforward despite the injury. Pre-draft profile here.

5. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech (my rank: 114)
Technically, Brandon Birdsell isn't "returning" to Texas Tech because he's coming from San Jacinto CC, where he joined Cubs fourth rounder Luke Little and Nationals fifth rounder Mitchell Parker on an insanely talented pitching staff. Having lost Clayton Beeter (Dodgers, competitive balance round), Bryce Bonnin (Reds, third round), and John McMillon (Royals, undrafted free agent) from last year's pitching staff, Texas Tech will get a needed boost from bringing on Birdsell. What he lacks in track record, he makes up for in projectable starter traits, and I guess teams wanted to see him prove them in Lubbock (or he bet on himself to prove them beyond teams' expectations). His velocity has crept up throughout his college career and was the highest it's ever been in his final start of the 2020 season, where he sat in the mid 90's. He showed a loopy slider in high school outside of Houston that had some nice depth but lacked any sort of power, but he's tightened it up really well and it looks like an above average pitch at its best. With a projectable, durable 6'2" frame, a clean delivery, and solid strike throwing ability, he's really gathering his starter traits together nicely and Texas Tech will look to help him continue on that upward trend. Unlike the other names on this list, he'll be a junior next year rather than a senior, so he'll fit right in with other college arms age-wise. With a full season of success in the Red Raiders rotation, Birdsell could have his stock in a much stronger place a year from now.

6. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC-Irvine (my rank: 120)
This is probably the first one on the list where I'd expect it was more a product of the short draft than him wanting to bet on himself and pricing himself out. Had their been a sixth round, my guess is Trenton Denholm would have been drafted. The Sacramento-area native is a really fun pitcher to watch, and he's been productive too with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UCI over the past two seasons. Sure, the Anteaters play in a relatively pitcher-friendly park and don't have the toughest schedule around, but Denholm has been perhaps even more impressive over two seasons in the elite Cape Cod League: 32.2 innings, one unearned run, and a 41/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Undersized at a skinny 5'11", he makes up for average stuff with an extremely competitive demeanor on the mound and a willingness to attack hitters with everything he has. He throws his fastball in the low 90's, topping out around 93, adding two solid breaking balls in a curveball and a slider. His changeup is perhaps his best pitch with nice fading action, but his stuff really works best when he's locating it well. The good news is he possesses the above average command to make it work, though it's hard to see him adding much more velocity. If he can get a slight velocity bump in 2021, that would help push him more into the top 100 picks, though his undersized frame and lack of a true strikeout pitch probably push him into a long relief role. I wouldn't bet against him though because he's shown the ability to get everything out of what he has, and with a really late birthday that makes him the age of a rising junior rather than the rising senior he is, he'll be fun to track in 2021.

7. OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 126)
After six pitchers, we finally get to our first position player. Parker Chavers (great baseball name) raked for two seasons at Coastal Carolina, slashing .319/.435/.554 with 22 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 101/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games from 2018-2019. The Montgomery, Alabama native also homered seven times while slashing .274/.354/.478 over 44 games against top pitching in the Cape Cod League over the summer, setting himself up for a big 2020 season. However, shoulder surgery meant that didn't happen, and Chanticleers fans thought they had seen the last of him when the season shut down. Now, he'll bring his potent bat back to Conway for the 2021 season. He's a tooled up outfielder who stands out most for his above average raw power, a product of natural athleticism and strength despite a smaller 5'11" frame. There's plus speed as well, though it plays more as above average on the field because his game is raw overall. He has some strikeout concerns that were more evident against top pitching on the Cape than they were against a relatively ordinary Sun Belt schedule, and his base running and defense are in need of more refinement. Chavers has a great opportunity to get that done in 2021, but he was already pretty old for a college junior this year and he'll be nearly 23 by the time the next draft roles around. If he doesn't refine his overall game significantly by then, Chavers will be much more of a day two money saver than a true top 100 prospect.

8. LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia (my rank: 127)
Back to the mound, Andrew Abbott is the first true reliever on this list. A product of Virginia's rural Southside region, Abbott has been UVA's part-time closer over the past three seasons, putting up a 3.24 ERA and a 165/49 strikeout to walk ratio and nine saves across 108.1 innings. With an uptempo delivery, a smaller frame, shaky command, and a two pitch arsenal, there is very little chance he gets to start in pro ball, so he'll head back to Charlottesville to prove he can be a sure-thing type of arm. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95 and brings a plus curveball from the left side, which helped him strike out 28 batters in 13.1 innings in 2020. Abbott is aggressive with his pitches and attacks the zone with a bulldog, closer mentality, but he struggles to locate his pitches consistently and that gives him below average command despite that willingness to pitch in the zone. In that sense, he's a lot like Burl Carraway-lite, though Carraway's fastball is a little faster and his curve is a little sharper. He's relatively young for a college junior and will only turn 22 around draft time, so he won't be that old, but sharpening his command a little bit will definitely be key in keeping himself in the top tier of relief prospects given the extra development time.

9. RHP Carson Seymour, Kansas State (my rank: 129)
This is a clear case where going back to school could really help, or really hurt, your draft stock. Carson Seymour grew up in Southern California but began his career at Dartmouth, then transferred halfway back across the country to Kansas State, where he'll stay put. Seymour is a big 6'5", 250 pound righty with very little track record to speak of, instead enticing scouts with his arm strength and one great final start in which he tossed six shutout innings (one unearned run) with nine strikeouts against Stanford. His best pitch is a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 99 in the past, adding an inconsistent slider and curveball that can flatten out at times and look like above average to plus pitches at others. He definitely has the build to start, but his command is even more inconsistent than his secondary pitches and he throws with a fair amount of effort. Seymour was hoping that strong Stanford start could be the start of a big run through Big 12 play, which was badly needed given his lack of a track record, but scouts weren't comfortable with an unproven arm with just 28 college innings to show. He'll head back to Manhattan (Manhattan, Kansas that is) to refine his game a bit more, which is certainly possible given the lack of mileage he has on his arm.

10. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (my rank: 146)
Mason Erla is definitely going to be an interesting one, because he's almost 23 already and will be coming up on 24 by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Erla has been a solid but unspectacular arm throughout his career at Michigan State, but an uptick in velocity in 2020 led to a 1.04 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, albeit against a relatively weaker schedule. The 6'4" righty comes from a low three quarters arm slot and now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a solid average slider and changeup to go along with it. With solid average command as well, he has enough starter traits to make it work, and could be a big league starting pitcher if a drafting team is willing to be patient. It's not that he'll take a long time to work his way up, it's just that he'll be almost 24 and might not hit the big leagues until he's 26 or 27. Erla probably fits better as a reliever anyways due to a lack of a true strikeout pitch, and he could move much quicker in that role. Either way, 2021 will be about proving his newfound velocity is for real and building off those four strong starts in the 2020 season.

Others:
3B Jamal O'Guinn, Southern California (my rank: 154)
RHP Jack Leftwich, Florida (my rank: 155)
SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech (my rank: 159)
LHP Ryan Webb, Georgia (unranked)
C Casey Opitz, Arkansas (unranked)