RHP Tommy Mace, Florida
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DoB: 11/11/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26/5 K/BB in 27 IP
Tommy Mace is an interesting prospect with a combination of track record and projectability. He was a rail-thin, 6'6" prep arm coming out of Sunlake High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, and the immense projectability in his frame led to some top five round conversations. However, his high asking price sent him north to Gainesville, and three years later, he remains somewhat of a similar prospect. Jumping into the rotation as a sophomore in 2019, he put up a 5.32 ERA and a 74/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings against Florida's tough SEC schedule, showing durability and a solid baseline of stuff but also that he wasn't quite there yet. The results were much better against Florida's non-conference schedule in 2020, with a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 27 innings (including a very strong start against a very strong Miami lineup), but scouts are still waiting on the stuff to leap forward and he remains a fairly divisive prospect.
Coming out of high school, evaluators excitedly projected velocity gains on Mace's low 90's fastball. Three years later, he has been able to run it up to 96 at times, but it's still in that same low 90's range more often than not. He throws a pretty good cutter/slider that keeps hitters off his fastball and can function as his out pitch, and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. His command is generally pretty good, something you definitely like to see from someone that tall, and it has helped him be generally successful in the SEC.
Mace offers an interesting conundrum as a very atypical projection arm. Most other projection guys that he will be compared to are high schoolers that are three years younger, but Mace's extra experience also gives him a bit of a track record to run on. There's still hope that he could add a tick or two to his fastball since he doesn't turn 22 until the offseason, but you could much more easily bet on an 18 year old to do the same thing. Scouts are on one hand pleased with his strike throwing and the numbers he put up in 2020, but on the other hand a bit frustrated that his stuff remains average as a whole.
I think he's shifted away from a boom/bust profile and settled more in the middle, looking like a back-end starter if he can make a couple of incremental improvements in his offspeed stuff. As a reliever, he could conceivably take a step forward and utilize a mid 90's fastball/hard cutter combination, which lowers some of the risk here. He probably fits in the second or third round come draft day.
2020 start vs Miami
2019 start vs Mississippi State
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