RHP Jared Jones, La Mirada HS [CA]
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DoB: 8/6/2001. Commitment: Texas
Jones has had a bit of an up and down, and certainly well-publicized, ride in terms of prospect stock. He was one of the first stars to emerge from the 2020 high school class, looking like one of the best arms in the class as early as his sophomore year. It took him some time to figure out his control and command, and as other players began to emerge, his stock faded just a little bit from its sky-high starting point. Jones then entered the 2020 season looking more like a second round pick, but improved results in the aforementioned control and command part of his game bumped him back into the fringes of the first round conversation.
Jones has a lot of starter traits and a couple of reliever warnings. He's a skinny 6'1" right hander with a big fastball that can sit in the mid 90's, and it has some nice arm side run as well. His go-to breaking ball has been an above average to plus slider, one with mid 80's velocity at times and really nice, two-plane tilt. He adds a changeup that's coming along, and lastly, he added a curveball during the pandemic that shows some potential. With his arm strength and ability to maintain his stuff into the later innings, that's a clear starter's arsenal. Historically, his command has been below average, but he was showing signs of real improvement on that front in the shortened 2020 season and looks to be closer to average now.
On the flip side, there are a couple of reliever warnings. The command is not as big of a red flag anymore, but it still needs continued development, as is the case for most high school arms. He's shown no durability questions to this point, but he's not the biggest guy in the world and he throws with full effort. While that alone doesn't doom a pitcher to relief, it does mean he'll have to continue to prove that he can hold up under a full, 150-200 inning season. With an August birthday, he's also relatively old for the class, which has become a factor for some teams.
I think when you look at the pros versus the cons in Jones' profile, the former far outweighs the latter. This is a big armed kid with a big league starter's arsenal that's trending back in the right direction, giving him the upside of a true impact starter at the major league level. He comes with significant relief/bust risk, as do most high school pitchers, but it's some of the better upside you'll find in this range of the draft. He now figures to go somewhere in the early second round, though he has a good shot at sneaking into the comp round if he's signable away from a Texas commitment. If Jones goes to Texas and shoves like he's capable of, he'll be a no-doubt first round pick in 2023.
Summer action at Wrigley Field
Summer action at Chase Field
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