Reviewing the Cincinnati Reds Farm System

The Reds don't have the deepest farm system in the world, but their top five rivals some of the best in the game, giving them a very good chance at having two star, homegrown infielders (Nick Senzel and Jonathan India), a star, homegrown outfielder (Taylor Trammell), and two star, home grown pitchers (Hunter Greene and Tony Santillan). Beyond those five, there aren't many impact prospects, with most of the rest of the better prospects being lower down in the minors as recent draftees or signees, especially with Shed Long gone to the Mariners. By the time you read this, the list might look very different with a potential J.T. Realmuto trade in the works as I write this.

Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos*, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level GCL and DSL Reds
*AA affiliate will move from Pensacola, FL to Chattanooga, TN in 2019

The Big Five: 3B Nick Senzel, OF Taylor Trammell, 3B Jonathan India, RHP Tony Santillan, and RHP Hunter Greene
The Reds have one of the best top fives in baseball, and these guys alone make the system one of the game's best. We'll start with 23 year old Nick Senzel, a former second overall pick (2016) out of Tennessee who slashed .310/.378/.509 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 39/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at AAA Louisville this year, though vertigo and a finger injury limited his time on the field. He's hoping to be fully healthy in 2019, where he'll have a chance to crack the major league roster with his broad skill set; he makes consistent hard contact, shows some power, and plays very good defense at third base. He's currently blocked by Eugenio Suarez at third base and by Scooter Gennett at second, but with a bat (and glove) like his, the Reds will find a place to put him. Senzel is not too dissimilar to Jose Ramirez as a player (though he's a little bigger and can't switch hit) and if everything works out, he could have a similar career in Cincinnati as a best-case scenario. A little lower down is 21 year old and fellow 2016 draftee (competitive balance round, 35th overall) Taylor Trammell, who slashed .277/.375/.406 with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 105/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Daytona. He is a very hard-working player who shows a great feel for the barrel and is beginning to grow into some power, giving him the chance to be an impact bat who can also steal plenty of bases. Defensively, he's closer to average in the outfield than you would expect given his profile, but he's young and the Reds have high hopes that he continues to improve his game to the point where he becomes a long-term starting center or left fielder with 20-20 ability. 22 year old Jonathan India was just drafted fifth overall in 2018 following a monster junior season at Florida (21 HR, .350/.497/.717), which he then followed up with a productive pro debut where he slashed .240/.380/.433 with six home runs and a 44/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between rookie affiliates Billings and Greeneville as well as Class A Dayton. He's currently hit over power and I think he'll stay that way, but with solid infield defense, he should have no problem remaining a high level prospect even if the power doesn't reach better than average. I'm not as high on India as some evaluators, but he's still an exciting prospect who projects to post high on-base percentages and double digit home run totals while holding down a starting infield spot in the majors. 21 year old Tony Santillan was actually a 2015 draftee (second round, 49th overall) out of a central Texas high school, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 134/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149 innings at Daytona and AA Pensacola in 2018 to really establish himself as an impact pitching prospect. He easily sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, and when you combine that stuff with his pretty good command, he's a well rounded prospect with a #2 starter ceiling and with less risk than many high-upside guys. Further honing in his control will help him reach that ceiling, where he could stick in the Reds rotation for a long time, but even as-is he could probably cut it as a back-end guy. Lastly, we have 19 year old Hunter Greene, the fireballing right hander who was taken second overall out of high school in southern California in 2017. Greene had mixed results in his full season debut this year, posting a 4.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 89/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings at Class A Dayton. The first thing that jumps out with Greene is his fastball, which sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103. I saw him pitch at the All Star Futures Game in Washington this past summer, and let me tell you, even from the right field bleachers I could tell that his fastball was simply next-level. His slider is coming along and for such a young player (he won't even turn 20 until August) with such elite velocity, his command is actually pretty good. The major drawback for Greene is injury risk, as is always the case with pitchers who throw so hard, and his elbow strain that caused him to miss some time in 2018 isn't easing anyone's minds. He's said to be fully healthy at this point, so we should all be crossing our fingers that he stays that way because frankly, he's simply fun to watch. Even if durability concerns or slower-than-expected development of his offspeeds force him from the rotation, he has closer upside out of the bullpen.

Outfield Group: OF TJ Friedl, OF Jose Siri, OF Stuart Fairchild, OF Michael Beltre, OF Mariel Bautista, and OF Mike Siani
Arguably the deepest part of the Cincinnati farm system is the outfield, where Taylor Trammell leads a large group of talented players looking to break through in the future. Trammell aside, the most advanced prospect is 23 year old TJ Friedl, who never registered for the 2016 draft because he (and somehow, MLB's thirty clubs) did not realize he was eligible. The Reds won a bidding war and gave him the largest signing bonus ever for an un-drafted free agent at $735,000, and he hit the ground running. In 2018, he slashed .284/.381/.384 with five home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 100/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for High A Daytona and AA Pensacola, showing great on-base ability and speed along the way. At just 5'10", he lacks much present power and is unlikely to develop much down the line, but with the aforementioned speed and high on-base percentages, he shouldn't need it to reach the majors. That lack of power does, however, make him less likely to become a full-time starter in the majors, but there is still a chance if he hits enough. His defense is fairly average despite his speed, so it neither hurts nor helps his case. 23 year old Jose Siri is a raw, toolsy player who slashed .239/.294/.449 with 13 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 123/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Daytona and Pensacola, which was a step back from his big 2017 in Class A (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530). He has that power/speed combination that scouts love, and his cannon arm only helps his case as an excellent baseball athlete. However, he struggles to get to that power in games, leaving evaluators wondering if he will ever hit enough to hold down a starting spot in the majors. His aggressive approach limits his walks, and his swing and miss tendencies caught up to him in High A and AA this year. He needs more seasoning in the minors, but he still has a very high ceiling if he can make everything click, because power hitters who can nail runners at the plate with great throws from center field can naturally contribute to their teams in a lot of ways. He just has to improve his approach and pitch recognition. Behind Friedl and Siri is 22 year old Stuart Fairchild, a former second round pick (38th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017 who slashed .264/.344/.407 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 128/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Class A Dayton and Daytona. He doesn't have the prettiest swing in the world but he takes an advanced approach to the plate and makes good contact, giving him high on-base percentages. He's also fast and covers plenty of ground in the outfield, taking some pressure off the bat, but I wasn't a huge fan on draft day and that hasn't changed. He seems like a fourth outfielder to me and I would call Friedl the better prospect, though he can change that by cutting his strikeout rate in 2019. 23 year old Michael Beltre has moved slowly through the system, and he spent 2018 slashing .278/.397/.402 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 85/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at Dayton and Daytona. He has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him adjust well to A ball and should help him adjust to AA in 2019, though the bat itself lacks much punch aside from some gap power. His speed and advanced approach buy the bat time, but he's unlikely to end up more than a fourth outfielder if something big doesn't change with the bat. 21 year old Mariel Bautista, like Beltre, has moved slowly, and he slashed .330/.386/.541 with eight home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 29/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at rookie level Billings. The numbers were fantastic, but it's important to remember that he was 20 years old facing mostly teenage or just-out-of-college competition, and his transition to full season ball, especially above Class A, will be important in accurately evaluating him. In rookie ball, he showed power, speed, and a great ability to avoid strikeouts, and if he keeps that up as he moves through the minors, he'll be a legitimate prospect. For now, we're more in wait-and-see mode. Lastly, 19 year old Mike Siani was just drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 draft out of high school in Philadelphia, and he had a successful debut by slashing .288/.351/.386 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games with rookie level Greeneville. On draft day, he was more well known for his great defense than his bat, which needed refinement, but the successful run through Appalachian League pitching shows that the bat might be more advanced than initially expected. I actually think that some power will come too, which will make him a complete player if everything holds up. Of course, that's a big "if" because 46 games in rookie ball isn't the be-all, end-all, but signs are pointing up for Siani and he could be one of the team's top prospects a year from now.

Infielders and Catchers: C Tyler Stephenson, SS Alfredo Rodriguez, SS Jose Garcia, and 1B Ibandel Isabel
It's a good thing that two of the Reds' best prospects are Nick Senzel and Jonathan India, because after those two, there isn't much in terms of infielders in this system. They do have one viable catcher in 22 year old Tyler Stephenson, which is not something all systems can say, and Stephenson just slashed .250/.338/.392 with 11 home runs and a 98/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona. He's an uncommon catching prospect who can both field and hit, though both will continue to need work. He's got power but doesn't always get to it, and with his moderate on-base ability, the bat is fairly fringy overall. Fortunately for him, the offensive bar for catchers is low and the Reds will give him plenty of time to figure out how to get to his power more consistently, in which case he could be a starting major league catcher. 24 year old Alfredo Rodriguez, who signed for $7 million out of Cuba in 2016, is an interesting prospect because he's a fantastic defender at shortstop but so far in his three minor league seasons, he hasn't hit a lick. In 2018, he slashed .210/.273/.312 with two home runs and a 32/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in complex ball, Daytona, and AA Pensacola while missing time with wrist issues. Having a wicked glove at a premium position will buy your bat all the slack in the world (see Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith), but the bat has to do something in order for him to be useful in the long run. If the bat picks up to the point where he can hit some doubles and get on base at a .300 clip next season, he could crack it as a utility infielder in the majors. 20 year old Jose Garcia signed for $5 million out of Cuba a year after Rodriguez, but so far, he has hit a little better than is elder (and higher paid) counterpart. In his first pro season in 2018, he slashed .245/.290/.344 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Dayton. He's a solid defender at shortstop but not nearly of Rodriguez's caliber, though he's also almost four years younger and hasn't been completely inept at the plate. His plate discipline needs a ton of work and he was overmatched at times by Midwest League pitching, but he has a high offensive ceiling as a guy who can impact the game with more than just his speed. At this point, consider Garcia kind of a wild card, ultimately taking on a utility infielder projection for now but with more (or less) possible. Lastly, 23 year old Ibandel Isabel has some of the most impressive raw power in the system, finishing a 2018 where he blasted 36 home runs and slashed .257/.332/.562 with a 161/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in High A. Isabel was acquired from the Dodgers for Ariel Hernandez back in April and can really put a charge into the ball, but his sub-par plate discipline leads to far too many strikeouts at this point. He will have to really improve his approach if he wants to produce in the high minors and the majors, and as a first baseman, his defense isn't buying his bat any slack. That said, that power could play really well in Great American Ballpark if he can just get the bat on the ball at a decent rate.

The Pitchers: RHP Keury Mella, RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, LHP Scott Moss, LHP Packy Naughton, RHP Jimmy Herget, and RHP James Marinan
Even after Tony Santillan and Hunter Greene, the Reds still have a solid group of pitchers to develop with a variety of skills and projections. 25 year old Keury Mella, who was signed by the Giants out of the Dominican Republic way back in 2012, was acquired with Adam Duvall in the 2015 Mike Leake trade and has seemingly been a prospect forever. This year, the 6'2" righty posted a 3.00 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville, also adding four unsuccessful major league appearances (8.68 ERA, 8/8 K/BB). He is presently and always has been about stuff over refinement, coming in with a mid 90's fastball and a good slider but lacking much else to really get himself over the hump and be successful in the majors. He clearly has the minor leagues handled judging by his good numbers in the high minors this year, but major league hitters punish his mistakes too regularly. He still has a shot to compete as a starter, but converting him to relief, where his fastball/slider combination could play up, could help him finally stick in the majors for good. 23 year old Vladimir Gutierrez was signed out of Cuba in 2016, and he reached AA in 2018 and posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 145/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings with Pensacola. Though he's just six feet tall, Gutierrez has very high upside with his stuff (mid 90's fastball, bat-missing slider) and control that a lot of other young pitchers struggle to put together. He has been plagued by inconsistency in his career, looking like an ace at times and like the opposite at others, but he has been getting better about bringing the same stuff and control from start to start and 2019 could be a real breakout year for him. If not, he could find himself in a similar limbo to Keury Mella down the line. 24 year old Scott Moss has moved slowly for a college pitcher coming from a major program, in this case Florida, spending 2018 at High A and posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Daytona. The 6'5" lefty doesn't have a standout pitch but uses his pitchability well, and if he can improve his command a little bit, he could sneak up as a back-end starter. Not that it matters, but Moss has been very lucky when it comes to run support and carries an impressive 31-11 record over three minor league seasons, including a 15-4 mark in 2018. I watched 22 year old Packy Naughton a lot in college at Virginia Tech, and he's interesting to say the least. He has a delivery, a funky name, and even a funky throws left/bats right profile. He dominated the Cape Cod League, the nation's premier collegiate summer league, with a 1.69 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings in 2016, but sucked in his three years at Virginia Tech from 2015-2017 (7-14, 6.13 ERA, 172/87 K/BB) even after the strong Cape performance. Admittedly, Virginia Tech's program as a whole was sub-par while he was there to say the least, and he has taken better than I expected to pro ball. In 2018, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 137/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at Class A Dayton, showing much better control than he had in college. His stuff is largely average but the quirkiness in his delivery makes it play up, and the Reds must have done something with his mechanics because he's in the strike zone much more. He's still inconsistent, though he has had quite a few more good days in pro ball than he had in college and while I saw him as a reliever back then, he might be able to crack it as a back-end starter with a little more refinement. 25 year old Jimmy Herget is a relief prospect who faired well this year by posting a 3.47 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings at AAA Louisville, doing so with a very good fastball/slider combination that can come from multiple arm angles. Dominant for his first three pro seasons after being drafted out of USF in the sixth round, he finally had to start making adjustments in AAA, but the 6'3" righty is major league ready and should compete for a middle relief spot in 2019 with a larger role possible if he's successful. Lastly, 20 year old James Marinan came over from the Dodgers in the small Dylan Floro trade in July, and he posted a 3.35 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 50/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings in complex ball and rookie level Billings. He was a fourth round pick out of a south Florida high school in 2017 and he's mostly about his fastball at this point; he throws in the low to mid 90's and gets a lot of ground balls from a 6'5" frame, though the rest of his stuff is yet to take the step forward. That's okay considering he'll spend the entire 2019 season at 20 years old, and if just one of his slider, curveball, or changeup becomes a little sharper in full season ball, the Reds will suddenly have a potential impact pitching prospect on their hands.

Reviewing My 2016 Draft Rankings

Intro

I composed my first draft prospect list in 2015, which went 60 deep and, as you would expect from my first time, was filled with holes. I was able to successfully project the success of players like Walker Buehler, Kolby Allard, and Triston McKenzie, but swung and missed badly with a low ranking of Andrew Benintendi and a high ranking of Mike Nikorak. In 2016, with a year's experience under my belt, I ranked 150 players and published the top 100, and while it still wasn't my best work, I was much happier with it than I was with my 2015 rankings. I believe 2017 was the first year where I truly am content, but seeing that you can't evaluate a draft class on its first pro season, let's take a look back at how my 2016 draft rankings have fared 16 months in. 

Linked here are my top 100 draft prospects for 2016: http://www.coverthosebases.com/blog/silverman-top-100-players-in-the-2016-mlb-draft

There will be three sections:

Biggest Successes: Players that I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who, after their first full professional season, have outplayed that consensus and fit closer with my ranking than with most others

Biggest Misses I: Players that have outplayed my predictions, proving my ranking to be too conservative

Biggest Misses II: Players who I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who have not lived up to my expectations, proving my ranking to be too aggressive

Biggest Successes

#8 Forrest Whitley (MLB.com ranking: 12. Draft position: 17, Astros)

I loved everything about Whitley coming into draft day, noting the excellent downhill plane on his mid-90's fastball and his late-breaking, two-plane curveball. Putting an asterisk next to his name because of how high I was on him, I saw the potential to be an ace who could easily wind up as at least a mid-rotation starter. While he was ranked eighth on my list and 12th on MLB.com, he fell to pick #17, where the Astros took him. After a decent debut that summer, he caught fire this year and reached AA as a teenager. Not only did he pitch for AA Corpus Christi just 14 months after graduating high school, he actually thrived, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a sharp 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 14.2 innings. I projected him as a potential ace, and he has done everything necessary to remain on track for that.

#11 Dakota Hudson (MLB.com ranking: 15. Draft position: 34, Cardinals)

This is another instance where my ranking, MLB.com's ranking, and the draft position were all in order. I bought in on Hudson's breakout season at Mississippi State, citing his devastating fastball/slider combination despite the lack of a proven track record. Despite being thought of as more of a project than a finished product, Hudson has progressed rapidly through the St. Louis farm system, starting 2017 off with AA Springfield and pitching very well (9-4, 2.53 ERA, 77/34 K/BB) before a late season promotion to AAA Memphis in just his first full professional season. While his Memphis numbers weren't excellent (4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19/15 K/BB in 38.2 innings), the fact of the matter is that he was in AAA barely a year removed from college and that he has addressed, though not fully vanquished, questions about his durability. He'll need more polish at AAA to begin 2018, but we should see the Tennessee native in the majors at some point during the year, my buying into his breakout year is looking pretty good.

#28 Carter Kieboom (MLB.com ranking: 45. Draft position: 28, Nationals)

This one is different than the first two, because both I and the Nationals saw something in Kieboom that MLB.com didn't. I saw his long swing but noticed that the bat head was in the zone for a long time, comparing him to Anthony Rendon if he could tap into his raw power. Pessimists didn't like the risk he carried, but I was enamored enough with his offensive upside to put label him a first round talent. Like Whitely, he earned an asterisk next to his name, used to denote my favorite players in the draft. The Nationals seemingly agreed with my optimism, taking him in the same spot I ranked him. He has exceeded expectations so far, sticking at shortstop for now despite most prognosticating him as a third baseman, and his bat has translated up to full season ball with no problems. In 48 games at Class A Hagerstown (with time missed to injury), he slashed .296/.400/.497 with eight home runs and a solid 40/28 strikeout to walk ratio despite not turning 20 until the very end of the season. If he can stay healthy, that Anthony Rendon projection could work out.

#34 Alec Hansen (MLB.com ranking: 62. Draft position: 49, White Sox)

Alec Hansen was an interesting case. The 6'7" right hander entered the spring as a candidate to go #1 overall with his mid to upper 90's fastball and solid secondaries, but his command completely dissolved at the beginning of the season and he was booted from Oklahoma's rotation. He managed to right the ship somewhat as the season went on, but his final line was less than inspiring: 5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 75/39 K/BB in 51.2 innings against mostly Big 12 competition. He had the high strikeout numbers, but if he couldn't harness his stuff, that would mean nothing at the next level. He plummeted in the rankings, but I chose to stay on the bandwagon and keep him at #34, 28 spots higher than MLB.com and 15 spots higher than his eventual draft position. I noted that pro coaching had the potential to streamline his delivery and improve his consistency, and so far, the results have been excellent. In 38 starts since being drafted, Hansen is 13-9 with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and most impressively, a 272/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 196 innings. He reached AA at the end of this season, making two starts and posting a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings. The difference has been the return of his control, which was non-existent at OU (6.79 BB/9 in his junior year) but has reached an acceptable level in the minors (3.26 BB/9). At this point, he's looking more and more like the pitcher many thought could go first overall, and #34 could be too conservative a ranking when it's all said and done.

#56 Mike Shawaryn (MLB.com ranking: 139. Draft position: 148, Red Sox)

Mike Shawaryn is like Hansen-lite. After an excellent sophomore season at Maryland (13-2, 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 138/29 K/BB), he entered the spring as a potential first round pick. However, his junior season was inconsistent (6-4, 3.18 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 97/26 K/BB), and he slipped way down draft boards. He had a funky delivery to begin with, and skeptics saw the regression as a sign that his mechanics wouldn't work at the next level. I dropped him a fair amount as well, but I kept him in the top 60 because I didn't think his 2016 was as frightening as people thought. He maintained a high strikeout rate with 97 in 99 innings (I can't find batters faced data anywhere, so I don't know the K% or BB%), and he maintained a low walk rate of 2.36 per nine. The fact that he had solid control was what eased my mind over the mechanical worries, but it didn't for MLB teams, and he slipped to the fifth round, where the Red Sox took him 148th overall. Through 32 minor league starts reaching up to High Class A, he hasn't been amazing but he has more than held his own, going 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 191/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 150.1 innings. Those numbers don't pop off the page, but I do like the high strikeout rate, and he's looking more like a second or third round pick than a fifth rounder right now. We'll have to keep an eye on the 0.80 career ground out to air out ratio though.

#63 Akil Baddoo (MLB.com ranking: 72. Draft position: 74, Twins)

This one is interesting. As of draft day, he was an extremely raw player with poor mechanics whose athleticism and overall trajectory got him noticed. He had big bat speed but looked like he would need a lot of refinement from pro coaching to get anywhere. A .178/.299/.570 slash line in the Gulf Coast League in 2016 seemingly confirmed that, though his 14.2% walk rate was promising. He spent the beginning of 2017 back in the GCL, slashing .267/.360/.440 in 20 games, but he caught fire upon a promotion to rookie level Elizabethton. In 33 games, the 18-19 year old slashed .357/.478/.579, walking 27 times (17.2%) to just 19 strikeouts (12.1%), boosting his stock considerably. Baddoo may have been raw last year, but he is well on his way to reaching his lofty ceiling.

#72 Zac Gallen (MLB.com ranking: 78. Draft position: 106, Cardinals)

My ranking wasn't too far ahead of MLB.com's ranking, but Gallen has been a success despite slipping out of the top 100, so I'll call it a win. He had a solid but unspectacular junior season at UNC (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 95/21 K/BB in 90.2 innings), relying more on pitchability and smarts than on pure stuff. Cognizant of that pitchability, I liked the stuff just enough to rank him ahead of industry consensus, and he's rewarded me so far. Just like Dakota Hudson, he was drafted by the Cardinals and ended up pitching in AAA by the end of 2017. Through 32 minor league games (29 starts), he is 10-8 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157.1 innings, and he should be one of the first pitchers from his draft class to break into the majors.

#74 Garrett Williams (MLB.com ranking: 154. Draft position: 215, Giants)

This is one I am very proud of. Scouts liked his stuff, but he struggled to stay healthy (31.2 innings in sophomore and junior seasons at Oklahoma State combined) and with his command (30 walks in that span). I was particularly enamored with his stuff, noting an "angled, running fastball, a two-plane curveball that he can mend the shape of, and a fading changeup" (from my 2016 pre-draft notes). I liked his delivery as well, and noted that getting farther from his shoulder injury could help improve his dreadful command, especially as he was on the mound consistently. This all depended on him staying healthy, but so far, he has, and he has thus far justified my extremely optimistic ranking 141 spots higher than he was picked. In 2017, between Class A Augusta and High Class A San Jose in the hitters' paradise California League, Williams went 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, striking out 96 to 35 walks in 97 innings. The walk rate is still a bit high, but it has come down significantly from college and I think it will continue to do so. Watch this one.

Biggest Misses I (under-projected)

#7 Nick Senzel (MLB.com ranking: 7. Draft position: 2, Reds)

This isn't that big of a miss considering I ranked Senzel in the same place as MLB.com, but I still underestimated him. His big junior season at Tennessee saw him slash .352/.456/.595 with eight home runs, but I saw him more as a solid third baseman than as a star. I recognized his high floor, but wasn't sold on a ceiling of anything higher than a solid, Chase Headley-type third baseman. However, he has already reached AA and is slashing .315/.393/.514 with 21 home runs in his minor league career, including a .340/.413/.560 line in 57 games at AA Pensacola. He still may not be on track for that Headley comparison, but he's skirting right along his ceiling and could push it higher into the Anthony Rendon range (like Kieboom). 

#77 Bo Bichette (MLB.com ranking: 90. Draft position: 66, Blue Jays)

I actually ranked Bichette thirteen spots ahead of MLB.com, but also eleven spots behind where he was taken by the Blue Jays. The talent was evident, as he showed great bat speed and bat control, even if his mechanics were a little wild. However, I, along with most of the teams who picked before the Jays, missed the true potential, as literally everything has gone right for Bichette since draft day. Through 132 games across three levels (22 in the GCL, 70 in Class A, 40 in High Class A), the 19 year old is slashing .372/.427/.591 with 18 home runs, 50 doubles, and 25 stolen bases, including a .323/.379/.463 line at High A this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Despite being ranked 90th in his draft class by MLB.com in June 2016, he is now ranked as the 25th best prospect in all of baseball, and in my opinion, MLB.com is being too conservative yet again.

#117 Austin Hays (MLB.com ranking: 120. Draft position: 91, Orioles)

Again, I had Hays three spots ahead of MLB.com (as you can see, they're not very good prognosticators), but the Orioles recognized offensive ability that I didn't and took him 26 spots higher than I ranked him. I liked his quick swing but I didn't think the power would hold as he moved up, knocking him out of my top 100. As it turns out, his offensive breakout at the University of Jacksonville was no joke, and he has cracked no fewer than 36 minor league home runs over 166 games so far, slashing .330/.370/.576 in the short season New-York Penn League (38 games in 2016), High A Carolina League (64 games in 2017), and AA Eastern League (64 games). He even earned a September promotion to the big leagues, adding a 37th professional home run as the first player from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors.

#148 Bryse Wilson (MLB.com ranking: 144. Draft position: 109, Braves)

I saw nothing particularly special in Wilson, a high schooler from North Carolina, noting an uneven arm path and what I saw as a below-average slider. The Braves loved the arm strength that I merely liked, taking him 39 spots ahead of my ranking, and it has paid off in spades so far. The slider still isn't great, but they cleaned up his arm path and both his velocity and command have held up, helping him put up an excellent season for Class A Rome this year. Over 26 starts, the 19 year old went 10-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 139 and walking 37 in 137 innings. There are still questions as to how he will hold up at the higher levels without that slider, and he may still turn out to be a reliever, but there is certainly talent here that I did not pick up.

Biggest Misses II (over-projected)

#1 Mickey Moniak (MLB.com ranking: 5. Draft position: 1, Phillies)

This one is an interesting case. Moniak had helium throughout the Spring of 2016, starting as a mid-first round candidate before hitting his way into the top ten and ultimately top five consideration. General industry consensus never moved him past the 4-7 range, but he was a personal favorite of mine due to his swing mechanics and makeup, so I aggressively ranked him number one on my draft board well before the Phillies buzz. As it turned out, the Phillies agreed with me, selecting Moniak first overall. They aggressively assigned him to Class A Lakewood this year, and the results were underwhelming to say the least: .236/.284/.341, five home runs, eleven stolen bases in 123 games. He may have been 19 playing in full season ball, but those numbers just don't cut it. Unfortunately, when I saw Lakewood play at Delmarva on my day off work, Moniak was on the bench, and I only got to see one pinch-hitting plate appearance (he grounded out). Moniak is far from a bust, but he'll probably repeat the level in 2018 in hopes of adjusting. I still have high hopes for Moniak being a star outfielder in Philadelphia, but other players such as Forrest Whitley, Nick Senzel, Bo Bichette, and A.J. Puk have moved ahead of him in his draft class.

#15 Buddy Reed (MLB.com ranking: 30. Draft position: 48, Padres)

I remained optimistic on Alec Hansen and Mike Shawaryn when their stock faded, and that worked out, but it didn't work out when I did the same for Buddy Reed. An extremely athletic outfielder who slashed .305/.367/.433 with 18 stolen bases as a sophomore at Florida, he regressed to .262/.362/.395 with 24 stolen bases as a junior, looking lost at the plate and leading many scouts to question his floor. I still liked his athleticism at the time, but looking back, the warning signs were there, as his high sophomore strikeout rate (17.9%) jumped to 20.5% as a junior. In his full season debut with Class A Fort Wayne this year, he put up a disappointing .234/.290/.396 line with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 88 games, striking out in 28% of his plate appearances. His athleticism could still help him adjust as he moves up, but he certainly hasn't justified a mid-first round ranking and probably never will.

#49 Jake Fraley (MLB.com ranking: 89. Draft position: 77, Rays)

As of draft day, Fraley struck me as a high floor, low ceiling outfielder who would ultimately fall somewhere between a Sam Fuld and a Gerardo Parra, with the overall projection of a starting outfielder with speed but limited pop. He slashed a career best .326/.408/.464 with five home runs and 28 stolen bases as a junior at LSU in 2016, showing a quick swing and an 11.8% walk rate (coupled with a 10.5% strikeout rate) that led me to make that high-floor projection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited his time on the field in pro ball, and in the 85 total games he has seen on the field, he is slashing just .229/.319/.356 with three home runs and 37 stolen bases. He spent 26 games in the High Class A Florida State League in 2017, which turned out to be a miserable failure as he slashed .170/.238/.255 with one home run, one stolen base, three caught stealing's, and a 22.9% strikeout rate to just a 6.7% walk rate. The 22 year old could concievably bounce back when healthy, but he has a lot of catch-up to play and just as much to prove.

#81 Walker Robbins (MLB.com ranking: 93. Draft position: 166, Cardinals)

This one is just a straight miss on my part. Robbins was a country strong power hitter from rural southeastern Mississippi, one who I believed could break out with pro refinement once his swing was cleaned up. Unfortunately, a year and a half later, that hasn't happened. Through 70 pro games (30 in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2016, 40 in the Appalachian League in 2017), Robbins is slashing just .179/.239/.246 with two home runs and a 79/19 strikeout to walk ratio. That comes out to a 30% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate, and virtually no production. Robbins is still just 19 and has time to right the ship, but at this point he is looking like a long shot.

Minor League Awards

With the minor league season coming to a close, it's time to hand out the awards for the best hitters and pitchers. Please note that this is not based on prospect status, but on performance. Performance in different levels will be weighed roughly the same to allow the awards to expand outside of just AA and AAA, though players from higher levels will get a closer look. Some general minor league information: the levels are, from highest to lowest, AAA, AA, High A, Class A, Short Season A, Rookie, and complex (GCL, AZL, DSL, VSL). The California League (one of three leagues in High A) is extremely hitter-friendly and gives a Coors Field-type effect to players' stats, while the Pacific Coast League (one of two leagues in AAA) and Pioneer League (one of two Rookie leagues) are also very hitter-friendly. The Florida State League (one of three leagues in High A) is very pitcher-friendly, and the Texas League (one of three leagues in AA) and Midwest League (one of two leagues in Class A) also lean pitcher-friendly. Most others are relatively neutral. I'll also reference my 2015, 2016, and 2017 draft rankings a fair amount. The way I weight them is like this: 2015 was just a learning year, one where I made my first list through trial with no error yet to learn from. 2016 was my warm-up year, the one where I had been through a year of rankings but still didn't have much error to learn from. 2017 was my first real year.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Winner: Bo Bichette (Blue Jays Class A and High A): 14 HR, 74 RBI, .362 AVG, 22 SB, 181 wRC+

If you want to see some crazy numbers, look no further than Blue Jays prospect Bo Bichette. One of two Jays' teenagers/sons of MLB stars to post huge breakout seasons (see Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), the son of Dante Bichette has blown every expectation out of the water. Drafted in the second round (66th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2016, I liked his swing but had just enough doubt in his ability to tone it down that I ranked him 77th. As it turns out, he'd be a top ten or even top five pick if the draft happened again. Bichette tore up the complex-level Gulf Coast League immediately following his signing in 2016 (.427/.451/.732 in 22 games) and picked up right where he left off in 2017. Less than a year after graduating high school, the 19 year old was assigned to Class A Lansing in the Midwest League, where he absolutely ripped the cover off the ball, slashing .384/.448/.623 with 32 doubles, three triples, and ten home runs in 70 games, adding in 12 stolen bases in 15 tries to boot. This added up to a ridiculous .476 wOBA and a 201 wRC+, forcing the Jays to move their budding star to High Class A Dunedin in the tough Florida State League. There, he turned a bit more human (until you remember he's still 19 years old), slashing .323/.379/.463 with nine doubles, a triple, four home runs, and ten stolen bases in 40 games. Combined, he finished his season slashing .362/.423/.565 with 41 doubles, four triples, and 14 home runs, giving him 59 extra base hits in 110 games to go along with 22 stolen bases and a very high OBP. If he can begin to turn those doubles into home runs, Bichette has a very good chance to be an All Star at the next level.

Runner-Up: Austin Hays (Orioles High A and AA): 32 HR, 95 RBI, .329 AVG, 5 SB, 164 wRC+

It may just be Hays' first full pro season, but he's already made a mockery out of three different levels. After being drafted in the third round (91st overall) out of Jacksonville University in 2016, he slashed .336/.386/.514 with four home runs in a 38 game debut in the New York-Penn League. To start the season, he was handed an aggressive assignment to High Class A Frederick, where he did nothing but rake. Over 64 games, he slashed .328/.364/.592 with 16 home runs, posting a .422 wOBA and a 167 wRC+ for the Keys. Promoted to AA Bowie two weeks before his 22nd birthday and barely a year after he was drafted, he put up virtually the same numbers, slashing .330/.367/.594 with 16 home runs, a .418 wOBA, and a 161 wRC+ over 64 games. That's a combined 32 home runs and an OPS of .958 this season for the Daytona Beach native. As I was writing this paragraph, the Orioles called him up to the major leagues, where he could be a significant piece in the Baltimore lineup in time. I ranked him 117th in my 2016 rankings, 26 spots below where the Orioles took him, and I admittedly overlooked his offensive capability. I noted his quick swing and his knack for making contact, but I was worried about his balance and power projection and those now seem like they won't be issues. Hays' one spot for improvement offensively this year is in his patience, as he walked in just 4.4% of his plate appearances. Going forward, that will be important, and his lack of OBP skills could turn him into a Yulieski Gurriel type hitter at the next level.

Honorable Mention: Ronald Acuna (Braves High A, AA, and AAA): 21 HR, 82 RBI, .325 AVG, 44 SB, 155 wRC+

Acuna is one of this year's biggest breakout stars, and his huge season has put him at or near the top of every updated prospect list out there. He was profiled a few weeks ago in my Minor League Watch, and with good reason. The 19 year old has played at three levels this year and has actually improved at each stop. He slashed .287/.336/.478 (.370 wOBA, 135 wRC+) in 28 games at High Class A Florida in the tough Florida State League, then slashed .326/.374/.520 (.404 wOBA, 159 wRC+) in 57 games at AA Mississippi, followed by a .344/.393/.548 line (.413 wOBA, 162 wRC+) in 54 games at AAA Gwinnett. He's getting better and better with each promotion, and the best part is that he's still a teenager. Even his strikeout rate dropped from 31.7% at High A to 23% at AA and 19.8% at AAA, while his walk rates have remained mostly steady (6.3%, 7.4%, 7.0%). He's probably a bit too raw to play in the majors today, as he needs to continue to make progress on his approach, but every arrow points towards "future superstar" for Acuna. I haven't even mentioned that he stole 44 bases this year, albeit while being caught 20 times.

Others: Rhys Hoskins (PHI AAA: 29 HR, 91 RBI, .284 AVG, 4 SB, 166 wRC+), Ryan McMahon (COL AA and AAA, 20 HR, 88 RBI, .355 AVG, 11 SB, 157 wRC+), Jeremy Barfield (BOS AA and AAA, 28 HR, 76 RBI, .293 AVG, 1 SB, 161 wRC+), Nick Senzel (CIN High A and AA, 14 HR, 65 RBI, .321 AVG, 14 SB, 164 wRC+)

Even when you don't include Rhys Hoskins' incredible first month in the majors, he was having a special season, slashing .284/.385/.581 with 29 home runs over 115 games at AAA Lehigh Valley. Those look like pretty good numbers on the surface, but when you adjust for the fact that the International League tends to lean a tad pitcher-friendly, you get an excellent 166 wRC+, better than both Hays (164) and Acuna (155). Combine his 26 MLB games and the man has 41 home runs with a .291/.395/.614 line over 141 games. Ryan McMahon slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games at AA Hartford before a promotion to AAA Albuquerque, where he caught fire in the hitter-friendly environment. In 70 games, the 22 year old slashed .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs and 23 doubles, earning a promotion to the major leagues for the Rockies. Jeremy Barfield spent most of 2017 with AA Portland, where he slashed .288/.359/.584 with 27 home runs in the pitcher-friendly environment. He got a brief, three game promotion to AAA Pawtucket, where he cracked five hits, including a home run, in eleven at bats while walking four times in the series against Rochester. Lastly, Nick Senzel was picked second overall by the Reds in 2016 out of the University of Tennessee, and so far, he's lived up to the billing. Starting the season at High Class A Daytona in the Florida State League, he slashed .305/.371/.476 with four home runs and 26 doubles in 62 games. Promoted to AA Pensacola, he caught fire, slashing .340/.413/.560 with ten home runs over 57 games, and if it weren't for an injury at the end of the season, he might have earned a call-up to the big club in September.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Jon Duplantier (ARI Class A and High A): 12-3, 1.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 165/42 K/BB

After overlooking Austin Hays and being conservative with Bo Bichette, I had better luck with the pitchers in my 2016 rankings. Jon Duplantier, then with Rice University, ranked 45th in my rankings before the 2016 draft due to his nasty stuff, but he lasted until pick 89 (3rd round) due to shoulder concerns. Turns out my optimism paid off, as Duplantier has absolutely dominated this season. Starting off at Class A Kane County, he completely overmatched his opponents, going 6-1 with a 1.24 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, striking out 78 and walking just 15 in 72.2 innings for the Cougars. Promoted to High Class A Visalia in the extremely hitter-friendly California League, he seemingly forgot that he was in a hitters' paradise and went 6-2 with a 1.56 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, this time striking out 87 and walking 27 in 63.1 innings. Combined, that's a 1.39 ERA and a very strong 34.1 strikeout percentage. In his 25 games, all but one of which lasted at least 5 innings, he never allowed more than three earned runs in any start and allowed either zero or one earned run in 19 of the 25. I noted before the 2016 draft that health aside, Duplantier's ticket to a big league rotation would be improving his command, and it looks like he has made progress there. Total batters faced/walk percentage data isn't available for Duplantier's time at Rice, but we can look at the slightly inferior walks per nine innings. In his junior year at Rice in 2016, he walked 3.81 per nine, but that fell to 1.86 at Class A this year. It jumped back up to 3.84 at High A, but that's in a very hitter-friendly environment following a promotion so we can give him the benefit of the doubt. He still has work to do on his command, but he has become one of the lone bright spots in a very barren Diamondbacks farm system.

Runner-Up: Corbin Burnes (MIL High A and AA): 8-3, 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/36 K/BB

Two pitchers, two wins for my 2016 draft rankings. I ranked the then-St. Mary's pitcher 48th due to his athleticism, velocity, and promising offspeed stuff, but industry concerns about the future development of said offspeed pitches as well as questions about his durability dropped him to the fourth round, where the Brewers took him 111th. Apparently, those offspeed pitches came along like I predicted, as he absolutely dominated the mid minors this year. Starting off in High Class A Carolina, he couldn't have been any better, going 5-0 with a 1.05 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over ten starts, striking out 56 and walking 16 in 60 innings. Promoted to AA Biloxi, the 22 year old was still great, going 3-3 with a 2.10 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, this time striking out 84 and walking just 20 in 85.2 innings. On August 21st, in a AA game against Mobile (Angels AA), he tossed eight shutout innings on just two hits and two walks, striking out eight BayBears while throwing just 94 pitches. He should be in the big league rotation, assuming there is space, by next season. Combined with his 2.02 ERA in 2016, he now has a career 1.74 ERA through 181.1 minor league innings. 

Honorable Mention: Jack Flaherty (STL AA and AAA): 14-4, 2.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 147/35 K/BB

Flaherty, a 2014 first round pick out of the same California high school that produced Lucas Giolito and Max Fried, broke out this year in a big way. His first three pro seasons were pretty good (including a 2.84 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2015), but 2017 was something else entirely. Beginning his season at AA Springfield, he completely shut down Texas League competition by going 7-2 with a 1.42 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 62/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 63.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Memphis in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he became more human but still put up very dominant numbers considering the league production, going 7-2 (again) with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an 85/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.1 innings. That earned him a promotion to the big club, and he made his MLB debut with the Cardinals on September 1st. Overall, 2017 could not have gone any better for the 6'4" righty, who added a few miles per hour to his fastball and sharpened his offspeed pitches this year. Throw in Luke Weaver (MLB), Alex Reyes (MLB/AAA), Zac Gallen (AAA), Dakota Hudson (AAA), and Austin Gomber (AA), and aside from the Braves, the Cardinals may have the best crop of advanced young pitching in baseball. 

Others: Tyler Mahle (CIN AA and AAA: 10-7, 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 138/30 K/BB), Rogelio Armenteros (HOU AA and AAA: 10-4, 2.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 146/38 K/BB), Joey Lucchesi (SD High A and AA: 11-7, 2.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 148/33 K/BB), Merandy Gonzalez (MIA Class A and High A: 13-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 103/26 K/BB)

Tyler Mahle had possibly the best single month of any pitcher this year, starting off his season 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA and a 0.52 WHIP over five April starts for AA Pensacola, including a perfect game against Mobile (Angels AA). Over 14 AA starts, he ultimately finished 7-3 with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an 87/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings before being promoted to AAA Louisville. There, he succeeded again, finishing 3-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over ten starts, striking out 51 and walking 13 in 59.1 innings before earning a call-up to the Reds at the end of August. Rogelio Armenteros broke out in a huge way in 2017, starting off by dominating the Texas League by going 2-3 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 14 games (10 starts), striking out 74 and walking 19 in 65.1 innings for AA Corpus Christi. Promoted to AAA Fresno in the tough Pacific Coast League, he was just as good, going 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 72 and walking 19 in 58.1 innings. On August 26th, the Cuban native shut down Tacoma (Mariners AAA) through eight innings, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out eight. Joey Lucchesi was drafted in the fourth round out of Southeast Missouri State in 2016, and began the year in the extremely hitter-friendly California League. No worries, as he went 6-4 with a 2.52 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 14 starts for High Class A Lake Elsinore, striking out 95 and walking just 19 in 78.2 innings. At AA San Antonio, he went 5-3 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 53 and walking 14 in 60.1 innings. Lastly, we have Merandy Gonzalez, who broke out this year with a huge season in the mid minors. Starting with Class A Columbia in the Mets organization, Gonzalez went 8-1 with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, striking out 65 and walking 13 in 69.2 innings. That performance earned him a call-up to High Class A Port St. Lucie, but he was traded to the Marlins at the deadline in the A.J. Ramos deal and finished out the season at High Class A Jupiter. Between Port St. Lucie and Jupiter, both in the Florida State League, he put up more excellent numbers, going 5-2 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 38 and walking 13 in 60.2 innings. The combined ERA of 1.66 tempted me to rank him higher, but I kept him seventh due to the pitcher-friendly nature of the Florida State League as well as his low strikeout rate in that league (15.4%).