Louisville at Virginia Tech
4/13: UL 3, VT 2
4/14: UL 3, VT 1
4/14: UL 16, VT 1
I wasn't able to make it to much of this series, attending the first two innings of Game One, the entirety of Game Two, and none of Game Three. English Field premiered its new scoreboard which included a radar gun, but I was told that the stadium gun was inconsistently about 2-5 miles per hour cold so when I write about velocity, much of it is an estimate. Because I only saw about eleven innings of baseball, this report will be shorter than the NC State one.
General Notes
Virginia Tech
With the sweep, the Hokies fell to 15-20, and their ACC record fell to 6-12 despite a down year for most of the league and a lack of ranked opponents outside of NC State. Virginia Tech played poorly during the series, struggling to produce runs throughout the series and, when I was watching during Game Two, looking lost against sophomore lefty Nick Bennett. From a national or even an ACC perspective, the Hokies are not yet deserving of much attention, and while they possess the ability to take a game off a good team (see NC State, Virginia), they're unlikely to pose much of a threat to any power five team. From what I hear, new head coach John Szefc has the team trending in the right direction, at least internally, but the results have yet to translate onto the field.
Louisville
The sweep puts the Cardinals at 24-11, and it has definitely been an interesting season in Louisville. The Cardinals actually began the season with fourteen straight wins, including two over UNC, but they promptly lost eleven of their next seventeen games before beating Northern Kentucky then sweeping Virginia Tech. The loss of Brendan McKay certainly leaves a huge hole in the roster, and with guys like Drew Ellis, Kade McClure, Devin Hairston, Lincoln Henzman, Logan Taylor, Colby Fitch, and more all lost to pro ball from last year's team, this year's rendition of the Cardinals is very young. This led to a middle-heavy lineup powered by 3-4-5 hitters Devin Mann, Logan Wyatt, and Josh Stowers, one which lacked much punch outside of those three. On the mound, the team had a surprisingly deep arsenal of arms despite all of the turnover, and the pitching held the Hokies to four runs over the three games, even with starting a true freshman in Game Three, which I unfortunately missed. I don't see Louisville making a deep NCAA Tournament run this year given its youth, but they're well positioned for next year, especially on the mound, and if Tyler Fitzgerald can take the next step as a hitter, they won't be a fun team to play against on either side of the ball.
Individual Notes
Nick Bennett (Louisville Sophomore LHP)
4-0, 1.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB in 31 IP
Bennett looked excellent in Game Two, allowing one unearned run across eight innings on three hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts. It has all been part of a dominant sophomore season in which he is carrying a 1.45 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 35/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings in seven games (four starts). Standing 6'4", he's a big guy, and as a lefty he has a very imposing presence on the mound. Bennett mixed four pitches effectively, tossing a fastball in the 86-90 MPH range while topping out at 91, a cutter/slider in the mid to upper 70's, a slow curveball in the low to mid 70's, and a changeup in the low 80's. He commanded all of these pitches very well, hitting both sides of the plate and leaving Virginia Tech hitters off balance the entire time. He moved back and forth between his two seam and four seem fastball, with the four seamer sitting around 90 and the two seamer sitting more around 85-87 with some serious run. At times, despite its lack of velocity, it looked like that two seamer might have been his toughest pitch to hit, at least for the Hokies. His curve was the better of his two breaking balls, showing serious downer action that just seemed to keep going and going. The lack of velocity might make it a bit easier to hit at higher levels, but he was able to keep it down in the zone the Hokie hitters just couldn't square it up. The cutter/slider was perhaps his most hittable pitch, as it got slurvy at times in the upper 70's and didn't have the sharpest break. Still, it gave hitters a different look and he was able to command it. He also threw a changeup around 81, one which had some dip as it crossed the plate. He used it mostly against right handed hitters, but I can see it developing into an above average pitch in time as he is clearly already comfortable with it. If Bennett can add some velocity next season without sacrificing command, he could be a top 50 pick in the 2019 draft.
Adam Wolf (Louisville Junior LHP)
4-2, 2.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 63/17 K/BB in 53.1 IP
I only caught the first two innings, but Wolf pitched well against the Hokies, allowing two runs on nine hits and no walks over six innings and striking out out eight. He is a 6'6" lefty, and his approach to pitching is fairly similar to Bennett's. He throw just a hair faster, sitting in the 88-91 range and touching 92 a couple of times, but doesn't switch between the four seamer and the two seamer like Bennett (or at least didn't while I was watching early on). He adds a curveball and a changeup, and he commands the whole package very well. The curve had softer break than you would want, but the shape is good and it gets good downer action as it approaches the plate. The changeup also had some drop and was probably a step ahead of Bennett's. He is a back-end type starter who could crack the top five rounds due to his command. Aside from one rough start against Florida State, he actually has a 1.59 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, so outside of that start, he has been a consistent force as one of the ACC's top pitchers in 2018 in his first year starting.
Devin Mann (Louisville Junior 2B)
2 HR, .271/.436/.415, 5 SB, 25/34 K/BB
Mann is a big guy, standing 6'3" with long arms and an athletic build. He went hitless in ten at bats during the series but did walk three times in Game Three, showcasing the patient approach and very good eye he has exhibited all season long. Given his build, you would expect more power, but his swing lacks the kind of whip and bat speed to produce it. Unfortunately, I did not get a good look at him on defense. A team that believes they can help Mann tap his power should take him in the top five rounds.
Others
Josh Stowers (Louisville): Speedy, toolsy outfielder now slashing .276/.435/.440 with excellent 22/31 strikeout to walk ratio, possibly due to lack of protection behind him in lineup. Plus speed helps on both sides of the ball, could grow into 15 HR power as he fills out wiry frame.
Tyler Fitzgerald (Louisville): Sophomore shortstop with respectable .276/.347/.386 slash line, was highly touted in high school but needs to get just a bit more consistent with the bat. Has kept strikeouts down but doesn't walk much either. Erratic at shortstop but tools are there.
Showing posts with label Scouting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Scouting. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Notes From NC State at Virginia Tech
#10 North Carolina State at Virginia Tech
3/29: VT 10, NC State 2
3/30: NC State 14, VT 1
3/31: NC State 1, VT 0
I caught all of Game One, almost all of Game Two (left in 8th due to Passover), and the last few innings of Game Three (came late also due to Passover) this weekend, and here are some notes from what I saw. Unfortunately, English Field does not have a stadium radar gun, so I wasn't able to get velocities on all pitchers, though I was able to get some general ranges from a friend with a radar gun. Naturally, this list will focus more on the Wolfpack than the Hokies, as the Wolfpack are full of new faces that I haven't gotten to analyze before. I'll publish similar lists after the series with Louisville and Duke.
General Notes
Virginia Tech
The Hokies, now 11-15, continued their mediocre play with the series loss to the #10 Wolfpack. They managed to get to starter Michael Bienlien as well as relievers Nolan Clenney and Connor Centala in an eight run third inning on Thursday, letting offspeeds go and making the pitchers come to them. It didn't work against Johnny Piedmonte and Brian Brown, pitchers with better control, the next few days, and the team overall did not look good. The two bright spots for the team were Thursday starter Connor Coward (we'll get to him in a minute) and centerfielder Nick Menken, who made two spectacular catches. On Thursday, he laid out full sprint to catch a deep fly ball in left center, and on Friday, he crashed into the wall, again at full speed, while hanging onto a Brett Kinneman fly ball. So far, haven't seen much to be impressed by from the rest of the team though.
North Carolina State
Previously ranked #10 at D1Baseball, the Wolfpack improved to 23-5 and will hope to move up this week. They are clearly an offense-first team, with one of the game's most dangerous lineups including sluggers Brett Kinneman, Evan Edwards, Will Wilson, and Brad Debo, speedsters Josh McLain and Brock Deatherage, and freshman star Patrick Bailey. It is a team that focuses more on spraying line drives and home runs all over the field than on plate discipline, as many of their hitters seemed to chase pitches out of the zone looking to drive something. The aggressive approach has worked so far with the immense talent of their hitters, and it stands in stark contrast to a team like the famously patient Virginia Cavaliers. They're not scheduled to face any top tier arms nor have they already, so it will be interesting to see how that aggressive approach stacks up against some of the big arms they could face in the NCAA Tournament. Of the two best arm's they've faced, Clemson's Jacob Hennessy and Georgia Tech's Xzavion Curry, they managed fairly well against Hennessy but struggled against a dominant Curry.
Individual Notes
Connor Coward (VT Senior RHP)
2-2, 3.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 54/20 K/BB in 47 IP
Coward dominated the Wolfpack on Thursday, allowing just two unearned runs over eight innings on three hits and one walk, striking out nine. He wasn't throwing particularly hard, just 86-88 I was told, but he mixed his fastball, curveball, and changeup well and was able to locate them all around the plate while keeping the offspeeds down in the zone. A senior who has gotten better each year, he's more of a college pitcher than a pro prospect, but what he did against a talented NC State offense should be noticed and he could make a solid late round pick (30+) if he keeps pitching this way.
Jack Owens (VT redshirt Junior 2B)
1 HR, .295/.434/.400, 8 SB, 17/13 K/BB
Owens had a monster redshirt-sophomore season last year (5 HR, .358/.424/.504), but his power and contact are both down this year. Fortunately, though, his walks are up and he's getting hit by pitches at a crazy rate (12 in 26 games so far), giving him a high .434 on-base percentage. Owens is mostly a slap hitter and will have little to no power in pro ball if he makes it that far, so he will have to keep getting on base to keep his value up. I like that he has kicked up his walk rate this year, and his strikeout rate isn't too high, but overall I think the package is just a little light for pro ball. His defense at second base is pretty good, as he is athletic and can get to most balls hit his way.
Brett Kinneman (NC State Junior OF)
12 HR, .336/.418/.750, 3 SB, 22/16 K/BB
Kinneman has demolished opponents' pitching this season, and while he didn't pop any home runs in this series, he showed his talent by taking a Connor Coward fastball over right fielder Stevie Mangrum's head on Thursday, making it look easy in the process. He did chase some offspeed pitches out of the zone, so there is work to do and he's not a first round talent yet, but the lefty has a clean swing and a good enough eye in the zone to square up fastballs with ease. At this point, he's looking like he could be a top 100 pick, and if he can improve his plate discipline a little bit, he could crack the top 50 in time.
Brock Deatherage (NC State Senior OF)
5 HR, .324/.427/.510, 14 SB, 32/14 K/BB
Deatherage has had a very up and down career in Raleigh, slashing .317/.395/.482 as a sophomore in 2016 but dropping to .218/.304/.330 as a junior last year, leading to a 29th round selection in the draft. He has continued his streaky hitting this year, and with a huge game on Friday, he's back up to a career-best .324/.427/.510. He has a lean build and a ton of speed which plays on both sides of the ball. The streakiness in his bat stems from his aggressive approach and long swing, where he keeps his hands back before whipping the bat through the zone. That swing generates some impressive power, highlighted by a big home run on Friday that cleared the right field bullpen, but also leads to swing and miss. He's worth a top 20 round pick this year, but he could push himself into the top ten rounds if he cuts down on his strikeouts and stays consistent for the rest of the season.
Josh McLain (NC State Senior OF)
2 HR, .333/.348/.447, 5 SB, 10/4 K/BB
McLain is a little guy, listed at six feet tall and 165 pounds, but he knows his game. He's a speedy center fielder who can get to most balls, and he uses a short, quick swing to spray line drives and fly balls around the park. There's not much swing and miss in his game as he has a very good eye at the plate, but this leads to a low walk rate which saps his value. He doesn't have a high ceiling but as he continues to slap everything he sees into the outfield, he might not be a bad pick in the late rounds. Even though he's a senior, he's young for his class and is actually a month older than junior Brett Kinneman. He just has to get his walk rate up, because his strikeout rate has dropped each of the four seasons he has been in Raleigh.
Will Wilson (NC State Sophomore SS)
7 HR, .324/.427/.581, 0 SB, 17/18 K/BB
He's not draft eligible yet, but he may be the highest drafted player on this team when it's all said and done. The sophomore shortstop is not the biggest guy in the world, but he generates plenty of power for his size through a quick, whippy swing that generates a ton of torque. His power is mostly to the pull side and probably will always remain so, but he still has the ability to drive line drives into right field with zip. He can lose control of the strike zone at times and has a bit more swing and miss than you'd expect given his 17/18 strikeout to walk ratio, but that should be fixed as he matures, and he already shows a generally good eye at the plate. Defensively, he's unspectacular at shortstop and will probably have to move off the position. He has a strong arm but also has a tendency to sail his throws, and his range is so-so, so he might be better off at second or third base. I really like him as a prospect, and he might be a first round pick in my book in 2019 if he keeps hitting the way he is.
Michael Bienlien (NC State Sophomore RHP)
2-2, 4.96 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 11/4 K/BB in 16 IP
Bienlien was a 40th round pick out of high school in Chesapeake, Virginia in 2016 (in fact the same Great Bridge program that produced Justin Upton), though he hasn't gotten great results quite yet with the Wolfpack. Bienlien started off strong on Thursday, but his command deteriorated each inning and he was knocked out in the third as Tech went on to score eight runs in the inning. Bienlien throws from a high three quarters arm slot and can run his fastball up to 95 while sitting 91-93, and it has good run on it that makes it tough to square up. His curveball is kind of slurvy and needs to be tightened, and the Hokies were able to get to him when they realized he struggled to throw strikes with it. When it comes to his fastball, his overall control is better than his within-the-zone command, but he has been able to keep his walks down throughout his career and that was apparent in the early going on Thursday. He just needs to tighten his breaking stuff and his junior year next year will be telling.
Patrick Bailey (NC State Freshman C)
3 HR, .309/.400/.485, 9/10 K/BB
Bailey was a heralded recruit out of high school in High Point, North Carolina, finding himself drafted in the 37th round in 2017 before coming to campus. He has lived up to his billing and more so far, showing power and a surprisingly keen eye at the plate. Despite being a true freshman who doesn't turn 19 until May, he has walked more than he has struck out and continued to select good pitches during this series. He gets his power from a clean swing with few holes, and his power should increase as he fills out his frame. Behind the plate, he shows the tools to stick at catcher, with a strong arm and good mobility. At times, he tried to do too much or rush himself, which led to a throwing error on Thursday, but it's important to remember that he's just 18. In Kinneman, Wilson, and Bailey, this team could have a top 100 or even a top 50 pick in each of the next three drafts.
Others
Joe Freiday Jr. (Virginia Tech): 6'4" catcher with a ton of power and arm strength, surprisingly good defense behind the plate but too much swing and miss at this point to be seriously considered as a pro prospect
Evan Edwards (NC State): JuCo transfer slashing .318/.438/.612 with 8 home runs this season, using a long, quick swing to generate plenty of power and hard contact. Does have swing and miss in his game due to the length of his swing
Brad Debo (NC State): Sophomore who only DH'd this weekend, put up big numbers as a freshman (.335/.387/.493) but has slumped a bit this year (.271/.386/.371). Value is in his bat, but his swing includes some arm bar and I think teams have taken advantage of that
Kent Klyman (NC State): Sophomore who has been dominant with a running high 80's fastball and a good slider, decent command and an imposing presence at 6'7"
3/29: VT 10, NC State 2
3/30: NC State 14, VT 1
3/31: NC State 1, VT 0
I caught all of Game One, almost all of Game Two (left in 8th due to Passover), and the last few innings of Game Three (came late also due to Passover) this weekend, and here are some notes from what I saw. Unfortunately, English Field does not have a stadium radar gun, so I wasn't able to get velocities on all pitchers, though I was able to get some general ranges from a friend with a radar gun. Naturally, this list will focus more on the Wolfpack than the Hokies, as the Wolfpack are full of new faces that I haven't gotten to analyze before. I'll publish similar lists after the series with Louisville and Duke.
General Notes
Virginia Tech
The Hokies, now 11-15, continued their mediocre play with the series loss to the #10 Wolfpack. They managed to get to starter Michael Bienlien as well as relievers Nolan Clenney and Connor Centala in an eight run third inning on Thursday, letting offspeeds go and making the pitchers come to them. It didn't work against Johnny Piedmonte and Brian Brown, pitchers with better control, the next few days, and the team overall did not look good. The two bright spots for the team were Thursday starter Connor Coward (we'll get to him in a minute) and centerfielder Nick Menken, who made two spectacular catches. On Thursday, he laid out full sprint to catch a deep fly ball in left center, and on Friday, he crashed into the wall, again at full speed, while hanging onto a Brett Kinneman fly ball. So far, haven't seen much to be impressed by from the rest of the team though.
North Carolina State
Previously ranked #10 at D1Baseball, the Wolfpack improved to 23-5 and will hope to move up this week. They are clearly an offense-first team, with one of the game's most dangerous lineups including sluggers Brett Kinneman, Evan Edwards, Will Wilson, and Brad Debo, speedsters Josh McLain and Brock Deatherage, and freshman star Patrick Bailey. It is a team that focuses more on spraying line drives and home runs all over the field than on plate discipline, as many of their hitters seemed to chase pitches out of the zone looking to drive something. The aggressive approach has worked so far with the immense talent of their hitters, and it stands in stark contrast to a team like the famously patient Virginia Cavaliers. They're not scheduled to face any top tier arms nor have they already, so it will be interesting to see how that aggressive approach stacks up against some of the big arms they could face in the NCAA Tournament. Of the two best arm's they've faced, Clemson's Jacob Hennessy and Georgia Tech's Xzavion Curry, they managed fairly well against Hennessy but struggled against a dominant Curry.
Individual Notes
Connor Coward (VT Senior RHP)
2-2, 3.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 54/20 K/BB in 47 IP
Coward dominated the Wolfpack on Thursday, allowing just two unearned runs over eight innings on three hits and one walk, striking out nine. He wasn't throwing particularly hard, just 86-88 I was told, but he mixed his fastball, curveball, and changeup well and was able to locate them all around the plate while keeping the offspeeds down in the zone. A senior who has gotten better each year, he's more of a college pitcher than a pro prospect, but what he did against a talented NC State offense should be noticed and he could make a solid late round pick (30+) if he keeps pitching this way.
Jack Owens (VT redshirt Junior 2B)
1 HR, .295/.434/.400, 8 SB, 17/13 K/BB
Owens had a monster redshirt-sophomore season last year (5 HR, .358/.424/.504), but his power and contact are both down this year. Fortunately, though, his walks are up and he's getting hit by pitches at a crazy rate (12 in 26 games so far), giving him a high .434 on-base percentage. Owens is mostly a slap hitter and will have little to no power in pro ball if he makes it that far, so he will have to keep getting on base to keep his value up. I like that he has kicked up his walk rate this year, and his strikeout rate isn't too high, but overall I think the package is just a little light for pro ball. His defense at second base is pretty good, as he is athletic and can get to most balls hit his way.
Brett Kinneman (NC State Junior OF)
12 HR, .336/.418/.750, 3 SB, 22/16 K/BB
Kinneman has demolished opponents' pitching this season, and while he didn't pop any home runs in this series, he showed his talent by taking a Connor Coward fastball over right fielder Stevie Mangrum's head on Thursday, making it look easy in the process. He did chase some offspeed pitches out of the zone, so there is work to do and he's not a first round talent yet, but the lefty has a clean swing and a good enough eye in the zone to square up fastballs with ease. At this point, he's looking like he could be a top 100 pick, and if he can improve his plate discipline a little bit, he could crack the top 50 in time.
Brock Deatherage (NC State Senior OF)
5 HR, .324/.427/.510, 14 SB, 32/14 K/BB
Deatherage has had a very up and down career in Raleigh, slashing .317/.395/.482 as a sophomore in 2016 but dropping to .218/.304/.330 as a junior last year, leading to a 29th round selection in the draft. He has continued his streaky hitting this year, and with a huge game on Friday, he's back up to a career-best .324/.427/.510. He has a lean build and a ton of speed which plays on both sides of the ball. The streakiness in his bat stems from his aggressive approach and long swing, where he keeps his hands back before whipping the bat through the zone. That swing generates some impressive power, highlighted by a big home run on Friday that cleared the right field bullpen, but also leads to swing and miss. He's worth a top 20 round pick this year, but he could push himself into the top ten rounds if he cuts down on his strikeouts and stays consistent for the rest of the season.
Josh McLain (NC State Senior OF)
2 HR, .333/.348/.447, 5 SB, 10/4 K/BB
McLain is a little guy, listed at six feet tall and 165 pounds, but he knows his game. He's a speedy center fielder who can get to most balls, and he uses a short, quick swing to spray line drives and fly balls around the park. There's not much swing and miss in his game as he has a very good eye at the plate, but this leads to a low walk rate which saps his value. He doesn't have a high ceiling but as he continues to slap everything he sees into the outfield, he might not be a bad pick in the late rounds. Even though he's a senior, he's young for his class and is actually a month older than junior Brett Kinneman. He just has to get his walk rate up, because his strikeout rate has dropped each of the four seasons he has been in Raleigh.
Will Wilson (NC State Sophomore SS)
7 HR, .324/.427/.581, 0 SB, 17/18 K/BB
He's not draft eligible yet, but he may be the highest drafted player on this team when it's all said and done. The sophomore shortstop is not the biggest guy in the world, but he generates plenty of power for his size through a quick, whippy swing that generates a ton of torque. His power is mostly to the pull side and probably will always remain so, but he still has the ability to drive line drives into right field with zip. He can lose control of the strike zone at times and has a bit more swing and miss than you'd expect given his 17/18 strikeout to walk ratio, but that should be fixed as he matures, and he already shows a generally good eye at the plate. Defensively, he's unspectacular at shortstop and will probably have to move off the position. He has a strong arm but also has a tendency to sail his throws, and his range is so-so, so he might be better off at second or third base. I really like him as a prospect, and he might be a first round pick in my book in 2019 if he keeps hitting the way he is.
Michael Bienlien (NC State Sophomore RHP)
2-2, 4.96 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 11/4 K/BB in 16 IP
Bienlien was a 40th round pick out of high school in Chesapeake, Virginia in 2016 (in fact the same Great Bridge program that produced Justin Upton), though he hasn't gotten great results quite yet with the Wolfpack. Bienlien started off strong on Thursday, but his command deteriorated each inning and he was knocked out in the third as Tech went on to score eight runs in the inning. Bienlien throws from a high three quarters arm slot and can run his fastball up to 95 while sitting 91-93, and it has good run on it that makes it tough to square up. His curveball is kind of slurvy and needs to be tightened, and the Hokies were able to get to him when they realized he struggled to throw strikes with it. When it comes to his fastball, his overall control is better than his within-the-zone command, but he has been able to keep his walks down throughout his career and that was apparent in the early going on Thursday. He just needs to tighten his breaking stuff and his junior year next year will be telling.
Patrick Bailey (NC State Freshman C)
3 HR, .309/.400/.485, 9/10 K/BB
Bailey was a heralded recruit out of high school in High Point, North Carolina, finding himself drafted in the 37th round in 2017 before coming to campus. He has lived up to his billing and more so far, showing power and a surprisingly keen eye at the plate. Despite being a true freshman who doesn't turn 19 until May, he has walked more than he has struck out and continued to select good pitches during this series. He gets his power from a clean swing with few holes, and his power should increase as he fills out his frame. Behind the plate, he shows the tools to stick at catcher, with a strong arm and good mobility. At times, he tried to do too much or rush himself, which led to a throwing error on Thursday, but it's important to remember that he's just 18. In Kinneman, Wilson, and Bailey, this team could have a top 100 or even a top 50 pick in each of the next three drafts.
Others
Joe Freiday Jr. (Virginia Tech): 6'4" catcher with a ton of power and arm strength, surprisingly good defense behind the plate but too much swing and miss at this point to be seriously considered as a pro prospect
Evan Edwards (NC State): JuCo transfer slashing .318/.438/.612 with 8 home runs this season, using a long, quick swing to generate plenty of power and hard contact. Does have swing and miss in his game due to the length of his swing
Brad Debo (NC State): Sophomore who only DH'd this weekend, put up big numbers as a freshman (.335/.387/.493) but has slumped a bit this year (.271/.386/.371). Value is in his bat, but his swing includes some arm bar and I think teams have taken advantage of that
Kent Klyman (NC State): Sophomore who has been dominant with a running high 80's fastball and a good slider, decent command and an imposing presence at 6'7"
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