2019 Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

First five rounds: Ryan Jensen (1-27), Chase Strumpf (2-64), Michael McAvene (3-103), Chris Clarke (4-132), Josh Burgmann (5-162)
Also notable: Ethan Hearn (6-192), Adam Laskey (19-582), Nelson Maldonado (21-642), Zac Taylor (25-762)

This was a pitching-heavy draft for the Cubs, as they spent seven of their first nine picks and 14 of their first 19 picks on arms. They definitely took a chance on first rounder Ryan Jensen, who may fit in with third rounder Michael McAvene and fourth rounder Chris Clarke in the bullpen long term, but they saved significant money with that pick and look to use it to sign sixth rounder Ethan Hearn, who was more of a second round talent. The two early round bats, Hearn and Chase Strumpf, both have upside at the plate but also have work to do.

1-27: RHP Ryan Jensen (Fresno State, my rank: 93)
Like with the Astros' selection of Korey Lee, you might think I dislike this pick based on his ranking, but at #93, I had him ranked better than both MLB Pipeline (#99) and Baseball America (#109), so I actually don't hate it. Jensen is a hard throwing, six foot right hander out of Fresno State who posted a 2.88 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 107/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 innings as part of a breakout season for the Bulldogs. Jensen has significant upside, especially for a college pitcher, given that he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and gets movement on it to boot. His slider also looks good at times, though it flattens out at others, and his control (strike throwing ability) is in general ahead of his command (ability to locate pitches). That's a reliever-ish profile on the surface, but the Cubs are clearly buying into the upside here and think they can develop his secondaries to play off his fastball. If they can, they could look like geniuses with this pick, but the fact is that Jensen still has considerable reliever risk and you typically aren't looking for those in the first round. Still, Jensen's fastball could potentially hit triple digits in a relief role, so a move to the bullpen wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. He did sign for $2 million, which saved the Cubs $570,000 in their bonus pool to be used later, likely on sixth rounder Ethan Hearn.

2-64: 2B Chase Strumpf (UCLA, my rank: 61)
This was a less surprising pick for the Cubs, as Strumpf looked like a potential first round candidate after a strong sophomore season at UCLA (12 HR, .363/.475/.633) before a mildly disappointing junior year dropped him to the second round. This year, Strumpf hit .279/.416/.472 with nine home runs and a 64/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games, which are still good numbers in what was a very tough Pac-12 this year (.276/.422/.448 in conference), though his overall profile leaves him somewhat on the edge between playing full time and being more of a bench bat down the road. He's a patient hitter who rarely chases and who will draw plenty of walks to boost his on-base percentage, and when he gets his pitch he'll use his quick hands to drive the ball around the park, but there is significant swing and miss in his game at this point. His future projection all depends on how much contact he can make against higher level pitching, with a decent expectation for now looking like 15-20 home runs per season with fluctuating on-base percentages. He's just decent defensively at second base, so it remains to be seen whether the bat can carry him into an every day role or more of a reserve one. Slot value here is $1.05 million, which sounds about right.

3-103: RHP Michael McAvene (Louisville, unranked)
McAvene was a highly touted recruit coming into Louisville as a freshman in 2017, but Tommy John surgery limited him to just 27 innings over his first two seasons there. Healthy this year, he posted a 2.67 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 46/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.1 innings as the Cardinals' closer heading into the College World Series, boosting his draft stock considerably. The 6'3" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball in short stints and adds a good slider, and his command has improved from poor as an underclassman to average this year, giving him the chance to shoot up through the Cubs' minor league system once Louisville's CWS run is over. There is an outside chance that he could be deployed as a starter, where his velocity would likely dip into the low 90's, but he'd have to add a changeup and maintain the sharpness of his breaking ball for that to work. There is also some effort in his delivery, further pointing him towards remaining in the bullpen. As an Indianapolis native, he is somewhat of a hometown pick for the Cubs, and slot value here is $565,600.

4-132: RHP Chris Clarke (Southern California, unranked)
The first of seven USC Trojans to be drafted this year, Chris Clarke gives the Cubs a second straight reliever after McAvene went in the third round. Clarke had a fantastic year for Southern California this year, posting a 1.03 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 60/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings, often going multiple innings in his relief appearances. Unlike McAvene, though, there are no hopes of deploying Clarke as a starter, even though he averaged nearly two innings per appearance. He's a 6'7" righty who sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a very good curveball that can be a true swing and miss pitch when it's down in the zone. He's also a full year young for a college junior, having just turned 20 in May, adding to his upside. In fact, he's only six months older than much-talked-about Mets first rounder Brett Baty, who was picked out of high school. The drawback for Clarke, aside from the reliever-only projection, is durability, as his stuff is crisper when he's pitching on longer rest and he also had Tommy John surgery back in high school in Thousand Oaks, California. Slot value is $426,600.

5-162: RHP Josh Burgmann (Washington, unranked)
Josh Burgmann is from Nanaimo on Vancouver Island in British Columbia, but he attended the Vauxhall Academy of Baseball in a remote corner of Alberta about 80 miles north of the Montana border before heading back west to the University of Washington. After a strong junior season in Seattle, he'll be heading to Chicago on the heels of a 3.99 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 101/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings. He gives the Cubs a third straight Tommy John survivor, but unlike McAvene and Clarke, he has a good chance to stick as a starter. Burgmann sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds three solid offspeed pitches, all of which he consistently lands for strikes. He falls off the mound a bit to the glove (first base) side, which may sap some of his deception, but if he can hide the ball better and sharpen his overall command, the Cubs have a potential back-end starter here.

6-192: C Ethan Hearn (Mobile Christian HS [AL], my rank: 77)
Nobody thinks Hearn is the 192nd best prospect in the draft, and he only lasted this long due to signability away from a strong Mississippi State commitment. Hearn is likely the top catching prospect in a shallow high school class this spring, and he could have gone four rounds earlier had his bonus demands been a bit lower, but it looks like it may pay off for him because the Cubs would not have drafted him here if they didn't think they could get a deal done. He has power projection due to a swing with plenty of loft, and he already shows that power in batting practice. He has some swing and miss in his game and that will be his biggest challenge going forward, but Hearn is a sound defensive catcher with a very strong arm who should be able to stick back there, taking a lot of pressure off his bat. If he can consistently get to his power in pro ball, he could be a starting catcher down the line. Slot value is $247,000, but the $570,000 that the Cubs saved on first rounder Ryan Jensen will probably be added to his bonus, potential in addition to money from savings elsewhere.

19-582: LHP Adam Laskey (Duke, unranked)
I'm not sure if Laskey signs here in the 19th round, but he's been on an interesting ride. A potential Day One pick out of a Philadelphia-area high school in 2016, he instead headed to Duke, where he was up and down both as a freshman (6.83 ERA) and as a sophomore (5.47 ERA). However, he absolutely dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer with a 1.19 ERA and a 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.1 innings, putting himself in position to go on Day One with a strong junior season. However, while guys like Nick Lodolo and Alek Manoah shook off so-so underclass careers to break out as juniors, that wasn't the case with Laskey, and shoulder problems limited him to just 12 innings in which he posted a 6.00 ERA and a 10/13 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a 6'3" lefty who, when healthy, attacks hitters with a low 90's fastball, a decent slider, and a good changeup with average command, giving himself #4 starter projection. Shoulder injuries can derail careers, so we'll hope he can get healthy soon. If he's signable, he may require more than the $125,000 allotted to Day Three slots to keep him away from his senior season at Duke.

21-642: OF Nelson Maldonado (Florida, unranked)
I'm not sure there is another player who has been as much of a staple in Gainesville over the past four years as Nelson Maldonado. Even though he has never been the true "face" of the team, it seemed like every time I flipped on the Florida game on TV, it was Maldonado coming up big in a clutch spot. The Tampa native was a consistent presence in the Gator lineup over his first three seasons, but he broke out as a senior this year by slashing .343/.408/.575 with ten home runs and a 32/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, giving him 258 games total over four years. He's a stocky 5'10" but hits for average power, and his .297/.343/.574 in-conference slash line in the SEC shows that he isn't afraid of advanced pitching. Defensively, he won't be providing much value as a mediocre left fielder, so all pressure will be on the bat if he wants to outplay his 21st round selection. For a 21st round senior sign, Maldonado comes with some real upside as a potential platoon bat and I like this pick a lot.

25-762: OF Zac Taylor (Illinois, unranked)
For my hometown pick in this draft, I'll look at Downers Grove native Zac Taylor, who spent two years at the University of Houston before sitting out the 2017 season so he could transfer to the University of Illinois, where he spent his redshirt junior and senior seasons. After hitting just five home runs over his two seasons in Houston then hitting just .226 as a redshirt junior in Urbana-Champaign in 2018, he broke out to slash .321/.405/.612 with ten home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 42/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games this year in what has been a down year for the Big 10. He's 6'1" and employs a big leg kick from the right side, using his line drive swing to spray the ball around the park and clear fences on occasion. He also has some speed and should be an asset in the outfield, and overall he has a chance to move up and play for a fifth outfielder spot down the road for his hometown Cubs. Set to turn 24 in October, he'll want to move quickly.

2019 Draft Preview: Catchers

Drafting catchers is extremely risky, because catching is both the most demanding and the most difficult job on the diamond. Most catchers are either considered bat-first or glove-first, and many struggle to develop the secondary trait because the rigors of catching are either a) too difficult to learn or b) holding back their bat. High school catchers are especially risky, but even college catchers flop with regularity, as we have recently seen with guys like Max Pentecost (2014 Kennesaw State -> Blue Jays), Austin Rei (2015 Washington -> Red Sox), Chris Okey (2016 Clemson -> Reds), and Logan Ice (2016 Oregon State -> Indians).

Tier I: Adley Rutschman, Shea Langeliers
While catchers tend to be risky, there are two excellent options right at the top, by themselves making this a banner year for college catching. Adley Rutschman is the best catching prospect in recent memory, topping even Joey Bart (2018 Georgia Tech -> Giants), Mike Zunino (2012 Florida -> Mariners), and Matt Wieters (2007 Georgia Tech -> Orioles). He is exceptional in every facet of the game, absolutely crushing Pac-12 pitching with 16 home runs, a .424/.575/.771 slash line, and a 36/66 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games, showing power, contact, and plate discipline. Rutschman is as safe a bet as any player in this class to hit well in pro ball, and he could produce 30 or more home runs annually with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he produces plenty of positive value, showing great glove work and a strong arm behind the plate. On top of that, he is considered a strong leader and a hard worker, and in all likelihood the Orioles will pick him first overall. Meanwhile, in most other draft classes, Baylor's Shea Langeliers would be the top catching prospect available. Langeliers is a glove-first catcher with a cannon arm and very good glove work, likely better defensively than even Rutschman. His bat, however, is an interesting story. He was just decent at the plate in 2018 (11 HR, .252/.351/.496, 45/35 K/BB), and a hand injury at the beginning of the season looked to slow him down even further. However, he has been very good since returning, slashing .311/.376/.484 with six home runs and a 24/15 strikeout to walk ratio, and he figures to be an average hitter in the majors. While that's not the most exciting profile, Yadier Molina is still a potential Hall of Famer, though Langeliers figures to hit for a little more power with a little bit lower of an on-base percentage. He looks to be drafted somewhere in the top half of the first round, likely closer to the middle than the front.

Tier II: Ethan Hearn, Jonathan French
The top two high school catchers are pretty close to each other with their stock, though high school catchers in general come with a ton of risk and I'd be weary of picking either of these players on day one. I see Mobile product Ethan Hearn as the slightly better prospect, as he has shown plenty of power and loft at the plate, though he does have some swing and miss in his game. He's solid defensively with his strong arm but needs to clean up the rest of his game behind the plate. Overall, he has the tools to be a successful, productive catcher on both sides of the ball, but tweaking both sides of a catcher's game simultaneously is difficult and Hearn has plenty of risk. He looks to go in the second or third round. Over in the Atlanta area, Jonathan French has a fairly similar profile to Hearn. He shows power from a clean swing, though he also has swing and miss issues and I'm slightly more confident in Hearn's power than his. Defensively, he also has a strong arm and is ahead of Hearn with his overall glove work, but he still has work to do and also comes with plenty of risk. He's also a second or third rounder, but he more likely fits in the third.

Tier III: Kyle McCann, Carter Bins, Thomas Dillard
On the college side, these three come with work to do, just like Hearn and French, but they're also three years older. Kyle McCann plays for Georgia Tech and has absolutely mashed this year, slashing .296/.462/.699 with 22 home runs and a 63/54 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games, showing no doubt about his pure power but raising questions about his hit tool. Sure, McCann can take just about any ACC pitcher deep, but he has also struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances and slashed just .219/.309/.344 in the Cape Cod League last summer. His high walk rate might make teams feel a bit better about the swing and miss, but he's definitely not a lock to get to his power consistently at the next level. Defensively, he's just so-so, and there is a real chance he is forced to move to first base. In the best case scenario, McCann sticks behind the plate and goes on to mash 30 home runs per season in the majors, but in the worst case scenario he flairs out as a minor league first baseman who strikes out too much to be an impact offensively. He looks like a third or fourth rounder. Meanwhile, Fresno State's Carter Bins is McCann's polar opposite. He's a glove-first catcher who will stick behind the plate (though not to Langeliers' caliber), but his bat has been disappointing this year and he's far from a lock to produce in pro ball. He was pretty good as a sophomore (7 HR, .301/.372/.526, 41/17 K/BB), but he has regressed as a junior (5 HR, .263/.370/.389, 42/28 K/BB), showing improved plate discipline and that's about it. He has some loft and whip in his swing that could help him produce some power with wood bats, but the bat speed is closer to average and he might never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season. Combine that with some moderate swing and miss, and Bins looks more like a back-up catcher than a starter, though he has the tools to improve. Lastly, Thomas Dillard is more of a first base prospect, but he has caught some at Ole Miss and a team could choose to run him out there as a catcher and just see what happens. He is having a strong season with the bat for the Rebels, slashing .298/.440/.505 with ten home runs and a 39/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 56 games. He has plenty of pop in his right handed stroke, using his stocky frame and the whip and loft in his swing to drive balls out of the park. Additionally, his strong plate discipline helps cut down the swing and miss in his game to reasonable levels despite the power-oriented swing, and I see him as a better bet to hit in pro ball than both McCann and Bins. However, he is also the most likely of the three to end up at first base, which would put more pressure on his bat to perform. He projects as a 20-25 home run hitter with solid if unspectacular on-base percentages and figures to go in the third or fourth round.

Others: Cooper Johnson, Nick Kahle, Hayden Dunhurst