Showing posts with label Zach Neto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zach Neto. Show all posts

Sunday, August 14, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels nailed their first pick this year, grabbing a premium talent while still saving nearly a million dollars below slot value, which set them up really well for the rest of the draft. I wasn't always a fan of how they spent the rest of their bonus pool, but they got to go over slot and get the guys they wanted because of those first round savings without sacrificing talent. They leaned heavily into power hitters, especially when it comes to senior signs like Matt Coutney (65 career home runs including JuCo), Sonny DiChiara (63), Luke Franzoni (52), Dylan Phillips (44), Brendan Tinsman (40), and Casey Dana (36). Coutney, DiChiara, and Franzoni especially (in addition to non-senior sign Zach Neto) put up flat-out video game numbers in 2022, so it does appear the Angels collected some of the loudest stat lines in college baseball with this class. Interestingly, California is regularly the state that produces the most draft talent, but the Angels steered completely clear of their home state and instead drafted not one, not two, but three pitchers out of Oklahoma State. Lastly, I'd like to note that the Angels tend to push their college draftees rather aggressively, so numerous guys are already up at AA.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-13: SS Zach Neto, Campbell. My rank: #10.
Slot value: $4.41 million. Signing bonus: $3.5 million ($912,500 below slot value).
I love this pick for the Angels, and given that they got nearly a million dollar discount, it's one of my favorite picks of the entire first round. Zach Neto raked his way to an unbelievable .405/.488/.746 slash line as a sophomore at Campbell last year, then after showing very well in the Cape Cod League, he somehow bested all three slash numbers in 2022 to finish .407/.514/.769 with 15 home runs and a 19/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. Neto does a ton of things well, so it's hard to know where to start. He employs a big, slow leg kick that resembles a pitching motion, but keeps his hands and head quiet so as to not negatively impact his swing. With plus bat to ball skills, strong pitch recognition, and the ability to grind out at bats, there is very little concern that his setup will hurt his ability to hit MLB pitching. To boot, he struck out just 7.4% of the time this spring and just 10.7% of the time against better competition on the Cape. The Miami native is undersized at a skinny six feet tall, but that doesn't stop him from registering high exit velocities and showing potential for above average power from his lean, athletic frame. He finds the barrel extremely consistently and has feel to lift the ball, and all told it could be a 20+ home run bat that regularly posts on-base percentages nearing .400. A shortstop at Campbell, Neto is plenty athletic enough to stick there with solid range, and as a guy who received some innings on the bump for the Camels, he has enough arm to stick as well. I really like this profile and I think the Angels got exceptional value with a below-slot signing in the middle of the first round. He's off to a hot start to his pro career, slashing .313/.400/.500 with two home runs and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio over twelve games between High A Tri-City and AA Rocket City.

3-89: RHP Ben Joyce, Tennessee. My rank: #84.
Slot value: $702,100. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($295,400 above slot value).
I think most of us have heard of Ben Joyce by now, but if not, let's talk about one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. First off, Joyce has battled arm injuries throughout his time in college, including Tommy John surgery in late 2020 in addition to a myriad of other issues, and began his career at Walters State JC in Tennessee before transferring to Tennessee in 2021. Finally healthy for a full season in 2022, he registered a 2.23 ERA and a 53/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.1 innings for the Volunteers, almost entirely out of the bullpen. What makes him special, of course, is the stuff. His fastball consistently sits in the 101-103 range, and he registered the fastest pitch ever recorded by a right handed pitcher in baseball history when he hit 105.5 on the gun. Throw in the flat approach angle he puts on the pitch and it's straight up unhittable. The Knoxville native adds a hard, short slider that gets into the upper 80's, though the pitch stands out more for its velocity than its movement and mainly plays up because hitters have to be geared up for his fastball. There's a changeup in there, but it's a distant third pitch. Joyce is generally around the zone with his fastball, even if he doesn't have pinpoint command, but does struggle to land that slider for strikes. The 6'5" righty also throws with high effort and has missed a ton of time with various injuries, so it's a pure relief profile. Those injuries do call into question his durability as a whole, and the Angels don't have a great track record of keeping pitchers healthy, as it is. That said, Joyce can dominate with just his fastball alone, and if he stays healthy, he could be in the big leagues very, very quickly. There is closer upside here if he can learn to command his slider as well. He's gotten into two games for AA Rocket City so far, allowing two runs over two innings while striking out one and walking one.

4-118: RHP Jake Madden, Northwest Florida State JC. My rank: #107.
Slot value: $512,900. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($484,600 above slot value).
The Angels gave Ben Joyce a million dollars if you count the $2,500 contingency bonus players receive in addition to their regular bonus, and Jake Madden got the same a round later. Madden is another Tommy John survivor who looked untouchable at his best this year at Northwest Florida State JC, but did battle inconsistency as blister issues bothered him throughout the spring. The end result was a 4.53 ERA and a 76/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.2 innings, and you can note that those 76 strikeouts were good for a very strong 35.7% strikeout rate. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and has been up to 98, coming in with plenty of running and sinking life from a three quarters arm slot. He adds a solid, short slider and changeup, but for now he stands out more for his power than his refinement. The 6'6" righty is a premium athlete with a ton of projection remaining and he moves extremely well on the mound, though his mechanics do need refinement. He has a long arm action and he kicks his leg out towards third base on his way to the plate, and he has trouble repeating that delivery and can lose his arm slot. As a redshirt freshman that only turns 21 in December, he has time to figure things out and the Angels are buying into the body and athleticism. They likely believe his inconsistency stemmed from those blister issues as well as from having missed the 2021 season with TJ, so they're hoping to get those offspeed pitches and his command up to par quickly. There is a very high ceiling here if they can do that.

5-148: 1B Sonny DiChiara, Auburn. My rank: #164.
Slot value: $383,200. Signing bonus: $172,500 ($210,700 below slot value).
As with Ben Joyce, Sonny DiChiara (pronounced d'share-uh, also known as Sonny D) was one of the most prominent names in the SEC this spring. He spent three years at Samford and blasted 41 home runs over 126 games in the process, then transferred to Auburn this spring and took it to another level by slashing .383/.549/.777 with 22 home runs and a 55/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games against some of the best pitching in college baseball, giving him 63 career home runs if you're keeping track. DiChiara is all bat, and it's a good one. Listed at 6'1", 263 pounds, he looks every bit of it in the box and possesses the plus raw power you'd expect from a big guy like that. It's more strength than bat speed, but he taps that power very consistently in games so it doesn't matter. He is extremely patient in the box, walking 23.8% of the time in 2022, but he will punish you if you come into his zone. He naturally saw a ton of offspeed stuff in 2022, as you might expect looking at his numbers and sheer imposing presence in the box, and does possess some swing and miss. The Birmingham-area native also turned 23 in July, so he's older than most of his peers in college baseball and will want to move quickly. A first baseman only who may have to move to DH, nobody is mistaking him for a speedster out in the field and his value will be entirely tied to his bat. Still, he should move quickly through the minors and could be an every day first baseman sooner rather than later, one that could hit 20+ home runs a year with middling, walk-driven on-base percentages. He's already well on his way to that, slashing .289/.491/.395 with one home run and a 17/11 strikeout to walk ratio over twelve games at AA Rocket City in his home state.

6-178: RHP Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State. My rank: #208.
Slot value: $291,400. Signing bonus: $227,750 ($63,650 below slot value).
Victor Mederos is a guy that has been around. He has pitched for five different schools in the past five years – Coral Reef High School, Monsignor Pace High School, Westminster Christian High School, the University of Miami, and most recently, Oklahoma State – and will now join the Angels organization for yet another new uniform. A highly regarded talent out of Westminster Christian that could have gone in the top three rounds of the 2020 draft had he been signable, Mederos instead wound up on campus at Miami and pitched to middling results, bringing him to Stillwater. He again wound up with middling results, posting a 5.59 ERA and a 62/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 innings, but the Angels love the arm strength and will look to see what they can do here. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 99, but the pitch is straight and plays below its velocity. He shows both a curveball and a slider, which have flashed plus as far back as high school, but they're inconsistent and can blend into each other. His hard changeup can get firm at times but also flashes above average, giving him a powerful four pitch arsenal that shows plenty of promise at his best. The 6'2" righty has tremendous arm strength and is generally around the zone when he trusts his strength and doesn't try to overthrow, but he can lapse into doing so and that's when his command gets scattered. The Angels will want to do something with his fastball to get more life on it, or if not, turning his offspeed pitches into more consistent threats could help keep hitters off the fastball and allow it to play more to its plus velocity. There is a lot of relief risk at this point given all the inconsistency, but I wouldn't count him out just yet as a starter if the Angels can figure something out. In his first game at High A Tri-City, he tossed two no-hit innings with one strikeout and one walk.

10-298: 1B Matt Coutney, Old Dominion. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $152,800. Signing bonus: $7,500 ($145,300 below slot value).
This is a similar pick to Sonny DiChiara, though Matt Coutney played in the C-USA rather than the SEC and signed for a fraction of what DiChiara got. Coutney played two years at Colby JC in Nebraska, then transferred to Old Dominion and broke out in 2022 to slash .376/.473/.808 with 27 home runs and a 54/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. At one point, he had a five hit, two home run game against Middle Tennessee State, and at another point he blasted ten home runs in an eight game span in April. He taps his power with a very leveraged left handed swing, channeling his strength extremely well and causing the ball to just jump off his bat. He finds the barrel extremely consistently and his power plays to all fields, as he's fully willing to go the other way and do damage if that's what the situation calls for. There is some swing and miss in his game and he struck out in nearly 20% of his plate appearances in 2022, so it remains to be seen how the Edmonton, Alberta native performs against quality offspeed stuff in pro ball, but there is a nice baseline here to work off. Coutney is limited to first base and will have to out-hit DiChiara, Luke Franzoni, and other first basemen in the system to earn playing time. DiChiara is already in AA and Franzoni is in Low A, though Coutney did single, homer, and walk in his first three plate appearances down in the Arizona Complex League.

11-328: RHP Caden Dana, Don Bosco HS [NJ]. My rank: #112.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($1.125 million against bonus pool).
Last year, the Angels made a huge splash in the twelfth round when they brought in high school lefty Mason Albright for roughly $1.25 million, a record for day three of the draft. They did something similar this year by signing high school righty Caden Dana for $1.5 million in the eleventh round, breaking Albright's day three record. Dana's massive signing bonus is roughly equivalent to slot value for the 51st overall pick for some context, and it might have helped that the Angels not-so-coincidentally drafted and signed his older brother Casey out of UConn five rounds later. The younger Dana sits in the low 90's right now, getting up to 95-96 at his best with some steep plane. His curveball flashes plus with hard bite, and this spring he has added a shorter slider and can flip in a firm changeup. It's all about power from a very strong, 6'4" frame, and he could continue to add power to his stuff as he develops. He generally locates his fastball well, though his command of his offspeeds is less consistent, so that will be a point of development. There is also some effort to his delivery, which could point him to the bullpen if his command doesn't improve, but the New York native is plenty physical enough to start should that develop properly. The Angels are betting big on the arm strength and that nasty curveball, with hopes to get a #2 starter that could have developed into a first rounder at Kentucky. He tossed two shutout innings on one hit in his first start in the Arizona Complex League.

15-448: RHP Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State. My rank: #219.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $129,500 ($4,500 against bonus pool).
Along with sixth rounder Victor Mederos and seventh rounder Roman Phansalkar, Bryce Osmond marks the third pitcher the Angels drafted out of Oklahoma State in this class. Like Mederos, Osmond was a highly touted prep arm in the 2019 cycle and had a chance to go in the top three rounds, but signability pushed him to Stillwater where he has been uneven. He struggled to a 7.42 ERA in 2021, then after seeming to turn a corner in the Cape Cod League over the summer, finished 2022 with a 4.75 ERA and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings. He had actually pushed himself into top five round consideration in April, but allowed ten runs (nine earned) over his final two starts then sat out of the postseason with arm soreness. At his best, Osmond sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has been up to 96, but hitters pick it up easily and it lacks life. His best pitch is a plus slider that misses a ton of bats when it's on, but it can flatten out frequently. The Tulsa-area product adds in an average curveball and changeup, giving him a strong four pitch mix when things are going right. He's very athletic at a still-projectable 6'3", but he struggles to repeat his fairly simple delivery and can lose the strike zone or leave pitches over the heart of the plate. Throw in the arm soreness creating durability concerns, and he may be best served by moving forward as a fastball/slider reliever, where the former could add a tick of velocity and outplay its generic movement. The Angels could still stretch Osmond out as a starter, but he would need considerable work getting more consistent with his offspeed stuff and command to cut it in that role.

19-568: OF Luke Franzoni, Xavier. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
The Angels weren't done rounding up the most fearsome college hitters they could find, grabbing one more in Xavier masher Luke Franzoni. After three solid years in Cincinnati, Franzoni busted out for a massive 2022, slashing .354/.485/.821 with 29 home runs and a 64/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, and those 29 home runs finished second in college baseball to Texas' (now the Diamondbacks') Ivan Melendez. He's a big, strong power hitter that loves to get his arms extended, showing plus power to all fields that obviously plays up in games. The New Jersey native is a three true outcome type right now, with comfortably more than half of his plate appearances ending in a home run (10.7%), a walk (19.6%), or a strikeout (23.7%). That strikeout rate is particularly concerning given that he played against average competition in the Big East, and it jumped to 31.7% in a fifteen game stint in the Cape Cod League this summer. As a likely first baseman that will have to compete with Sonny DiChiara and Matt Coutney to climb the ladder, he'll really need to cut down on that swing and miss moving forward in pro ball. Unlike DiChiara and Coutney, however, Franzoni does have an outside shot to play a corner outfield position serviceably. He is slashing .200/.394/.320 with a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio though seven games at Low A Inland Empire, giving him one of the three true outcomes now in nearly two thirds of his plate appearnaces.

Monday, November 1, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: an early look at mid-majors (east)

2021 draftees: 94. Top school: Central Florida (4).
2021 preseason writeup (published 1/1/2021)

Top draftees:
1-9, Angels: RHP Sam Bachman (Miami OH)
1-20, Yankees: SS Trey Sweeney (Eastern Illinois)
1-23, Indians: RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina)
CBA-33, Brewers: 2B Tyler Black (Wright State)
2-41, Orioles: 2B Connor Norby (East Carolina)
2-49, Phillies: OF Ethan Wilson (South Alabama)
2-50, Giants: LHP Matt Mikulski (Fordham)

Playing in a mid-major conference is a bit different than a power conference like the SEC or ACC, as players don't always see the same level of competition and have to rely on more than just in-season performance to get noticed. Especially before the season begins, many rely on standout performances in places like the Cape Cod League or the Northwoods League to get noticed, silencing doubters who believe their big in-season performances were a product of a weaker schedule. This year's group features as much star power as any mid major class, and we'll start by taking a look at the top ten prospects from schools east of the Mississippi River.

1. OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 235 lbs. Born 10/8/2001. Hometown: Martinsburg, WV.
2021: 6 HR, .386/.508/.723, 7 SB, 14/25 K/BB in 26 games.
James Madison University in Virginia's Shenandoah Valley isn't your traditional baseball powerhouse, as they didn't have any players drafted in 2020 or 2021 and haven't seen a player go in the top six rounds since Jake Lowery was a fourth rounder back in 2011. Chase DeLauter will look to change that in 2022, heading into the season as one of the most hyped prospects in the entire country regardless of level. Though he's only played 42 games in his JMU career so far, he's made the most of his time on the field with a .385/.488/.657 line, and he boosted his stock even further with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League in which he hit .298/.397/.589 with nine home runs and more walks (21) than strikeouts (18). DeLauter stands out for his plus raw power from the left side, getting to that power very consistently in games with an effortless left handed swing that can almost appear nonchalant at times. He's built like a power hitter with a big 6'4" frame, and his loose hack generates plenty of natural loft. He never has to sell out to get to his power so he's always under control, and that power plays very well with wood. Not just a slugger, the West Virginia product is a disciplined hitter that has been in complete control of his at bats in CAA play and continued to manage the strike zone with precision against elite Cape arms despite the big step up in competition. He chooses good pitches to hit while letting the bad ones go, has been unfazed by velocity and breaking stuff, and makes loud contact as soon as pitchers come into his ample hitting zone. As an added bonus, he's extremely young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until October, making him even younger for this class than Jud Fabian was for last year's class. Heading into 2022, he has nothing left to prove with the bat. He's already obliterated CAA pitching, so perhaps the best thing he can do for himself is improving his defense. DeLauter is a solid runner with a good arm that has earned him 22 innings for JMU on the mound, giving him the ability to play a fringe-average center field for now, but given his size he'll likely slow down and move to right field. If he can convince some scouts that there might be a long term future in center, he could be in play at the very top of the draft and regardless figures to go early in the first round. The ultimate projection here is a true middle of the order hitter that will hit for power while getting on base at a high clip, perhaps like a more consistent Cody Bellinger with a bit less speed.

2. SS Zach Neto, Campbell.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 1/31/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2021: 12 HR, .405/.488/.746, 12 SB, 30/17 K/BB in 44 games.
In a region typically dominated by East Carolina and Coastal Carolina at the mid-major level, Campbell has done a nice job lately carving out a spot for itself as one of the better talent pipelines in the area. Zach Neto might be their best prospect yet, coming off a massive sophomore season in which he earned Big South Player of the Year honors before boosting his stock further with a .295/.427/.574 run through the Cape Cod League. Neto will never be the biggest or most physical guy on the field, but he makes the most of his smaller frame and then some. He has a noisy setup at the plate, rocking back and forth with significant bat waggle before employing an exaggerated load, balancing on his back foot prior to exploding forward at the ball. Oftentimes all that noise can lead to swing and miss for other players, but he quiets his hands down very well during his leg kick so that he's always in a good position to hit. From there, he produces above average power and gets to it in games with strong bat to ball skills and good pitch selection, looking the part of a complete hitter. The Miami product also provides value on defense with above average range at shortstop and perhaps just enough arm for the position, and he could be a plus defender at second base if forced off shortstop by a better defender. Neto's well-rounded bat combined with the ability to stick up the middle will have teams interested in the first round if he can even come close to matching the obscene .405/.488/.746 line he put up in 2021, with the chance to produce 20+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages if he reaches his ceiling.

3. LHP/1B Reggie Crawford, Connecticut.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 235 lbs. Born 12/4/2000. Hometown: Frackville, PA.
2021: 13 HR, .295/.349/.543, 2 SB, 58/17 K/BB in 51 games.
2021: 1-1, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 17/3 K/BB in 7.2 IP.
Reggie Crawford possesses one of the most exciting profiles in college baseball right now, which makes it all the more painful that we won't actually get to see him play in 2022 after he went down with Tommy John surgery. Still, he has legitimate first round upside as either a hitter or a pitcher, though it's hard to see him going that early in the draft without a junior year to answer the questions that naturally pop up when discussing giving multiple million dollars in signing bonus money. To date, Crawford is more established with the bat after cracking 13 home runs for UConn this spring and hitting .293/.341/.488 with a pair of home runs in twelve games evenly split between the US Collegiate National Team and the Cape Cod League. He produces plus raw power from the left side with a lightning quick bat and a ton of strength in his 6'4" frame, reminding me a bit of Alex Binelas as a hitter. He's aggressive like Binelas as well, walking just 19 times in 63 games between UConn, the CNT, and the Cape, but he does a good job of doing damage on pitches in the zone with strong bat to ball skills. Given that he's likely limited to first base in pro ball, putting pressure on his bat, scouts would have liked to see him be a bit more patient with balls out of the zone in 2022 but unfortunately won't get that opportunity. If he can tighten up the strike zone a little bit, he could flirt with 30 home runs annually in the majors. Meanwhile, there might be more untapped potential on the mound. The 6'4" lefty threw just 13.2 innings between UConn, the CNT, and the Cape in 2021, but the results were about as good as you can possible ask for as he struck out 29 of the 53 batters he faced (54.7%) and walked just four. He consistently brings upper 90's heat in short stints and touched as high as 101 with the CNT, also adding a plus slider that plays well off his fastball. Unlike most fireballing college relievers, Crawford actually fills up the strike zone well and could have above average command in time, which would be deadly given his stuff. There's some late jerk in his delivery but the overall operation is clean. A team looking for the central Pennsylvania native to develop as a starter will be doing so without having seen him complete three innings in any collegiate or summer outing, and will also have to work with him on developing a changeup. The risk is very high, but the upside is astronomical. He's a very different pitcher than Shohei Ohtani but his upside with the bat is similar.

4. LHP Carson Whisenhunt, East Carolina.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 10/20/2000. Hometown: Mocksville, NC.
2021: 6-2, 3.77 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 79/22 K/BB in 62 IP.
East Carolina has established itself as perhaps the premier destination for talent outside the Power Five conferences, so it's no surprise to see one of the top mid major pitchers in the country coming from Greenville. A year after Gavin Williams went 23rd overall to the Indians, Carson Whisenhunt finds himself in the first round conversation, if perhaps a touch behind where Williams ended up. He followed a strong sophomore season with an impressive run with the US Collegiate National Team, striking out ten over six innings while allowing just four baserunners. Whisenhunt has a very balanced arsenal beginning with a low 90's fastball that can get up to around 95 at his best, not overwhelming velocity but certainly enough to stand out from the left side and it's velocity he holds throughout his starts. The 6'3" lefty adds an above average slider that dives across the plate and can elicit some ugly swings, while his plus changeup is perhaps his best pitch as it just dies on its way to the plate. With a simple, low effort delivery, he makes all three pitches play up by hitting his spots and tunneling them off of each other reasonably well, checking all the boxes you look for in a big league starting pitcher. As it stands, he projects as a low risk mid-rotation starter that can effectively work past both lefties and righties, and in 2022 he'll look for either a slight velocity bump or perhaps try to flash plus more often with his slider if he wants to safely work his way into the first round. Another point of emphasis will be command, which is now solid average but trending towards above average if he keeps on his current trajectory.

5. OF Tyler Locklear, Virginia Commonwealth.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 11/24/2000. Hometown: Abingdon, MD.
2021: 16 HR, .345/.515/.686, 8 SB, 40/46 K/BB in 54 games.
Tyler Locklear brings us yet another big masher, this time out of VCU in Richmond. After a breakout year at the plate that saw him blast 16 home runs with an on-base percentage above .500, he continued to impress in the Cape Cod League by slashing .256/.333/.504 in 34 games and tying with Chase DeLauter for the league lead with nine home runs. A quiet setup at the plate gives way to an explosive swing that produces plus power and some impressive home runs, power he's clearly gotten to in games against good competition and with wood bats. A very patient, disciplined hitter at VCU, he expanded the zone a bit more against quality arms on the Cape but still limited his strikeout rate to a reasonable 22.7% as he didn't go too crazy with the chases. For the most part, Locklear picks good pitches to attack and therefore regularly puts himself in a good position to do damage, and it's also interesting to note that he finished eighth in Division I last year with 22 hit by pitches (plus nine more on the Cape). The northeastern Maryland native won't provide much value on defense and will therefore have to hit his way up, but he can hit the ball as hard as anybody and is a disciplined enough hitter to make it work in pro ball. It's probably a second round profile for now, but if he can show up in 2022 with better plate discipline and prove he can pair that plus power with an above average hit tool, he could easily swing his way into the first round.

6. LHP Trey Dombroski, Monmouth.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'5", 235 lbs. Born 3/13/2001. Hometown: Manasquan, NJ.
2021: 5-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 64/8 K/BB in 52.2 IP.
If you're old school and you miss the crafty lefties of days gone by, then Trey Dombroski is the prospect for you. Despite not lighting up the radar gun, he walked less than three percent of his opponents between his sophomore season at Monmouth and the Cape Cod League, combining for an incredible 115/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.1 innings. With a 2.73 ERA at Monmouth and a 1.19 mark on the Cape, he proved extremely effective at preventing runs, too, which is always important. Dombroski only sits around 90 with his fastball, occasionally creeping into the low 90's in games and topping out around 94 in side bullpens. Instead of blowing that pitch by hitters, he relies on mixing and matching his full four pitch arsenal with precise location. Behind his fastball, the 6'5" lefty adds a sweepy slider, a bigger curveball, and a diving changeup, all of which work well off each other. He comes from a relatively wide, high release point that might not fit new-age models looking for pitchers to get out in front and release the ball low to the ground, but you can't deny his results and sometimes old school can still be cool. His exceptional run through the Cape boosted his stock significantly as he proved he could miss some of the most talented bats in the country, whereas it might have been harder to get behind an 88-91 arm pitching in the MAAC as teams search for velocity. He has the look of a safe bet #4 starter and probably fits in the second or third round, but any increase in velocity in 2022 will have scouts sitting up in their seats for sure. Monmouth hasn't had a player drafted since 24th rounder Anthony Ciavarella in 2016 and hasn't seen a player go any earlier than that since Pat Light went 37th overall in 2012, so regardless this will be an exciting spring in West Long Branch.

7. RHP Sebastian Keane, Northeastern.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 185 lbs. Born 11/2/2000. Hometown: North Andover, MA.
2021: 6-1, 4.09 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 73/20 K/BB in 70.1 IP.
Sebastian Keane has been a well known commodity to scouts since his high school days, coming into Northeastern with as much hype as any recruit they've had in recent memory. This year, he'll look to be the first Husky drafted in a single digit round since Aaron Civale was a third rounder in 2016. Keane has not quite put it all together yet, looking more good than great throughout most of his career at Northeastern, but scouts have always loved the immense talent in his right arm and think 2022 could be a breakout year. The fact that he performed well on the Cape (3.85 ERA, 25/7 K/BB in 21 IP) helps his cause as well given that Northeastern doesn't play the toughest schedule. For now, the 6'3" righty works mainly off a deadly fastball/slider combination, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 96 at his best with the former while missing plenty of bats with the latter, a plus pitch. He also works in a curveball and changeup, though those two are certainly behind the fastball and slider and he doesn't use them as much. Keane is fairly closed off in his delivery and has a long way to go to get back on line, which occasionally affects his command when he doesn't get on time. For that reason, there is some relief risk here, where he could fall back on the fastball and slider and potentially see them both tick up, but evaluators are hoping he can make the minor tweaks necessary to become an impact starting pitching prospect this spring. That would require him featuring his curve and/or changeup more prominently in his arsenal and proving he can locate and miss bats with them, while getting a bit more consistent in the command department would be a big boon as well. There's a ton of arm strength, athleticism, and projection to build off here, so there are certain to be at least a few teams that are very bought into his upside.

8. SS Eric Brown, Coastal Carolina.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 190 lbs. Born 12/19/2000. Hometown: Bossier City, LA.
2021: 9 HR, .294/.413/.513, 11 SB, 37/33 K/BB in 50 games.
Eric Brown doesn't pop off the page looking like a top prospect, but the more you watch him play, the more he'll convince you he can be an everyday big leaguer. After a strong sophomore season for Coastal Carolina, he showed well in the Cape Cod League by slashing .269/.356/.408 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases in 36 games. Undersized at 5'10", he employs a unique setup at the plate in which he begins with his hands next to his forehead, rocking back into a big leg kick while pointing the bat head almost straight back towards the pitcher. From there, he pulls his hands back while still balanced on that back leg before ripping off a linear, leveraged swing. Despite everything going on in his load, he's very balanced throughout and repeats it consistently, making plenty of hard contact from the right side with a disciplined approach and the willingness to spray line drives around the park rather than do to much. Come into his wheelhouse, though, and he'll punish you, with the ability to produce some screaming line drives and more over the fence power than you'd expect from his 5'10" stature. He's also a strong defender whose athleticism translates well to the shortstop position, where he's balanced and steady enough to continue to play there in pro ball. That makes his bat all the more interesting, with the chance to hit near the top of a big league lineup with 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages if he reaches his ceiling.

9. RHP Andrew Taylor, Central Michigan.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 190 lbs. Born 9/23/2001. Hometown: Alto, MI.
2021: 11-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 125/24 K/BB in 94.1 IP.
You might not find a more consistent performer at this level than Andrew Taylor, who carried a 1.21 ERA through his first fourteen starts before ending up in the wrong place at the wrong time against a white-hot Notre Dame offense that tagged him for seven runs in his final start of the season. At that point, I don't think anybody was slowing the Irish down anyways. After the season, Taylor got two starts in the Cape Cod League and showed well, striking out eleven in seven innings while allowing just one run on three hits and three walks. He's a lanky 6'5" righthander that can run his fastball up to around 94, but he's comfortable sitting around 90 for now. He adds an above average curveball and changeup, with the latter the more consistent pitch and the former tending to pop out of his hand at times when he doesn't fully snap it. Everything works together from an extremely smooth delivery that, when combined with the massive projection in his frame, screams more velocity, and he commands all his pitches very well. Throw in the fact that he's very young for the class and won't turn 21 until September, and you have a prospect who could take some serious leaps forward in the right development system. For now, teams will be looking for even a slight velocity bump so they don't have to report too many 88's and 89's back to the higher ups, and he has a chance to move up boards quickly if he can provide that. There's a back-end starter projection here with a very good chance for more.

10. OF Colby Thomas, Mercer.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 1/26/2001. Hometown: Valdosta, GA.
2021: 10 HR, .247/.356/.479, 9 SB, 53/24 K/BB in 53 games.
Mercer will probably never have another prospect like Kyle Lewis, who went eleventh overall to the Mariners in 2016 when many thought he could be in play at the very top of the draft, but Colby Thomas provides an interesting sleeper and hopes to be the highest Bear drafted since then (he'll have to beat 2018 fifth rounder Austin Cox). Thomas exploded onto the scene with a huge freshman debut in the shortened 2020 season, slashing .333/.403/.681 with five home runs in 16 games, but was more solid than spectacular in his full sophomore season. A trip to the Cape Cod League raised his profile, where he hit a respectable .229/.309/.459 with four home runs in 34 games. He's another potential breakout pick for 2022, with the underlying tools necessary to surprise some people. A bit on the smaller side at six foot even, he shows above average raw power from the right side that he can get to in games and which showed up with wood bats. He does a nice job leaving his hands back and getting his barrel long through the zone, both creating the leverage necessary to produce power from his smaller frame as well as giving him more opportunity to read pitches and limit his swing and miss. The South Georgia native is a bit of a free swinger, though interestingly enough he cut his strikeout rate from 22.8% at Mercer this past spring to a very respectable 19.5% on the Cape. Beyond his bat, Thomas is an above average runner with an above average arm that has a chance to stick in center field, further boosting his value. At his peak, Thomas has a chance to hit 15-20 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages and a few stolen bases, a profile that could fit in any lineup.