Unpacking the San Diego Padres Trade Deadline

Acquired: RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, RHP Taylor Williams, RHP Austin Adams, RHP Dan Altavilla, 1B Mitch Moreland, C Austin Nola, C Jason Castro, OF Greg Allen, and a PTBNL

Traded: 3B Ty France, OF Josh Naylor, OF Edward Olivares, C Austin Hedges, C Luis Torrens, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Andres Muñoz, RHP Gerardo Reyes, minor leaguers OF Taylor Trammell, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, SS Owen Miller, 3B Hudson Potts, LHP Joey Cantillo, and two PTBNL's* (one PTBNL reported to be minor league RHP Matt Brash)

First off, wow. The Padres picked up an impact starting pitcher, four relievers, two catchers, a power bat, an extra outfielder, and a bonus PTBNL, only one of whom is a rental. And all it cost them was a set of 16 players, half of whom have major league experience. My two immediate takeaways: the Padres overpaid on a lot of these deals, but I commend them for doing so. In baseball, if you're not moving forward, you're going backwards, and they need to move forward if they want to catch the Dodgers and compete with the heavy hitters of the National League for years to come. In that sense, overpaying to get the job done was better than doing nothing at all. Even though 26 (!) players changed hands here, they still hung onto big name young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño, Ryan Weathers, and Cole Wilcox and young bats like Luis Campusano, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, and Hudson Head. I'd call that a win.

Obviously, I'm much more excited to talk about the prospects than the big leaguers, but let's run through the new Padres real quick.

New Bats

The most apparent upgrade here is swapping out Austin Hedges and Luis Torrens for Austin Nola and Jason Castro. Hedges and Torrens were hitting a combined .176/.266/.338 with three home runs in 36 games, while the new Nola/Castro combination comes in slashing .267/.355/.480 with seven home runs in 47 games. That's huge. While swapping out Hedges' steady glove for Nola's might sting a little bit, Nola has also played every other position but pitcher, shortstop, and center field over the last two seasons, giving San Diego a ton of flexibility to move him around the field and potentially give Castro more at bats. Mitch Moreland won't force Eric Hosmer off of first base, but he and his .328/.430/.746 bat will be a huge upgrade over the injured Tommy Pham (.207/.316/.293), Josh Naylor (.278/.316/.417), and Abraham Almonte (.111/.200/.111), who the Padres have been using in that spot. I think this transforms a top-heavy offense led primarily by Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Jake Cronenworth into a much more formidable, more balanced group that can try to keep up with the Dodgers. Lastly, Greg Allen is just a career .239/.295/.344 hitter, but his 94th percentile sprint speed makes him the fastest player on the team and, as a bonus, he grew up in San Diego, attending Hilltop High School in Chula Vista as well as San Diego State University.

New Arms

Clearly, Mike Clevinger is the headliner. Since the start of the 2017 season, he's 39-19 with a 2.97 ERA and a 534/175 strikeout to walk ratio across 470.1 innings – those are ace-caliber numbers. Additionally, the 29 year old is under contract through 2022 and should be affordable at that. Throw him in with Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Luis Patiño, and MacKenzie Gore, and the Padres have a legitimate rotation from top to bottom going forward (plus Zach Davies for 2021). Now, the bullpen. The fearsome trio of Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Craig Stammen combined for a 2.37 ERA over 212.2 innings in 2019, but that's jumped all the way to a 7.56 ERA in 33.1 innings this year. So, the Padres brought in four new relievers to counter that, especially given that Yates likely won't pitch the rest of the regular season. None of the four are necessarily stars, but Trevor Rosenthal, Dan Altavilla, Austin Adams, and Taylor Williams bring in some depth to help get them over the hump while those guys get back on track. Plus aside from Rosenthal, the other three are all under team control through 2023.

The Indians Haul

In trading Mike Clevinger, the Indians picked up easily the most capital from the Padres. Starting with the big leaguers, Cal Quantrill (age 25) has proven serviceable as both a starter and a reliever, and he'll have a chance to take over Clevinger's spot in the Cleveland rotation. The Ontario native fits the Indians mold as a polished strike thrower who can pitch well off his changeup, though the rest of his arsenal is pretty ordinary and he can be hittable when he misses in the zone. Moving forward, he'll probably be a back-end starter for Cleveland, though the Indians always have a host of starting pitchers coming up through their system which could force him out. He holds a 4.79 ERA and a 107/34 K/BB in 120.1 innings for his career. Josh Naylor (age 23) will join his younger brother Bo, who spent 2019 at Class A Lake County. Naylor is a bit younger and comes with more upside than Quantrill, and as a career .253/.315/.405 hitter with nine home runs in 112 games, he already has a little bit of track record under his belt at 23 years old. He controls the strike zone well with a solid 21% career strikeout rate, though while he shows some thump in his bat, it may not be enough to start full time with his first base/corner outfield profile. As a left handed hitter who has also shown the ability to hit same-sided pitching, he increases his base value as a bench bat and could fill in left, right, first base, or DH. At peak, we could see 20-25 home runs a year, but I think he'll be more in the teens. Then there's Austin Hedges (age 28), who is just a career .199/.257/.359 hitter, but it's not like Roberto Perez (.214/.304/.368) or Sandy Leon (.217/.284/.328) are much better. Now, the Indians have three top defensive catchers who can't hit, but while Leon is a free agent after the season, Hedges and Perez are both under contract through 2022. Those two should bridge the time until Bo Naylor works his way up.

Now onto the minor leaguers, which I prefer to talk about anyways. I'm extremely excited to see Joey Cantillo (age 20) in the Indians system, where he could really take off. He dominated A ball to the tune of a 2.26 ERA and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings in 2019, showing improved stuff across the board as he filled out his 6'4" frame. The stuff is decent, with a fastball around 90, a good changeup, and a huge downer curveball with tremendous depth but not a ton of velocity, but everything plays up because he gets great deception in his delivery and locates his pitches extremely well. That's exactly the kind of pitcher the Indians tend to do really well with, and I could really see him coming out a legitimate impact pitcher. Keep an eye on this one. Moving on, Owen Miller (age 23) is a sleeper type who has slashed .307/.367/.441 with 17 home runs over 205 games so far in his minor league career. He has exceptional natural feel to hit that helped him race from Illinois State to AA in less than a year, and while he doesn't hit for a ton of power, his ability to find the barrel consistently makes that moderate power up significantly. With Francisco Lindor looking like he'll be leaving Cleveland and no long term solution at second base, the middle infield is wide open and I could see Miller becoming a full time starter either at second base or shortstop in the near future. Coming up behind him is Gabriel Arias (age 20), who broke out with a .302/.339/.470 line and 17 home runs in High A in 2019. He has always been talented and the big breakout just confirms what evaluators already knew. Arias is an explosive hitter from the right side that put up those gaudy numbers against much older competition, but at this point, he's also very aggressive and will need to tone down his approach as he matures. Given his age, that's not overly concerning. What he did as a teenager in High A was impressive enough, and he's a great defender that could become Cleveland's shortstop of the future if he continues to progress. The youth and the glove give his plate discipline plenty of slack to catch up.

New Mariners

The most established player heading to the other end of I-5 is Ty France (age 26), a San Diego State product who was off to a hot .309/.377/.491 start over 20 games in 2020. He's not a huge guy at 5'11", but he has great feel for the barrel that enables him to make consistent hard contact and tap some power when he gets into one. Even though he's just 89 games into his MLB career, he's already appeared at first base, second base, third base, and even pitcher, bringing plenty of versatility to fill in in multiple roles or even sneak into a starting spot if Evan White, Shed Long, or Kyle Seager gets hurt. There's not much coming up through the system that would seem to threaten his playing time, either, and he's under team control for a long time. Definitely a nice depth add. Luis Torrens (age 24) hasn't made a ton of noise just yet, slashing .176/.256/.223 over 70 career games, but with Austin Nola leaving town, he'll have plenty of opportunity to try. Torrens has a classic backup catcher profile, with very strong plate discipline helping him tap some moderate power from the right side. At 24 years old, I'm not sure how much more he'll grow into, but he's been steadily hitting for more impact in the minors and he has a chance to hit for just enough in the majors to justify regular playing time, especially with his solid glove. He'll likely help bridge the gap until Cal Raleigh is ready. Andres Muñoz (age 21) is a really interesting one. The 6'2", 240 pound righty has a triple digit fastball that has touched as high as 104, and while his command is far from pinpoint, he's not wild either and is generally around the zone. He drops in a good, vertical slider, and the two pitches enabled him to post a 3.91 ERA and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings in 2019 at just 20 years old, though he's sitting out 2020 with Tommy John surgery. Once he comes back, Muñoz just needs to sharpen his command a little bit to become a legitimate late inning arm. Given his age, that's certainly possible, making him a really interesting one to watch in the Mariners' bullpen. Lastly, the one true prospect in this deal was Taylor Trammell (age 22), the well-known prospect who was previously involved in the Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig deal of 2019. His stock faded a bit with a so-so 2019 season in AA (.234/.340/.349, 10 HR), but there's still a lot to like in this buy-low prospect. He has really nice raw power that he taps naturally, and a patient approach has enabled him to handle advanced pitching throughout his career. Throw in above average speed, and he can really impact the game in a lot of ways. The 2019 season showed that he still has work to do in proving he can generate impact against top level pitching, though he was just 21 at the time. The Mariners are betting that additional development time will prove that to just be a blip on the radar, and that his work ethic, athleticism, and patient approach will come together for an all-around contributor at the major league level. Either way, we should see him in Seattle by 2021 at the latest.

Two New Red Sox Bats

In return for power bat Mitch Moreland, the Red Sox are bringing on two new minor league bats in Hudson Potts (age 21) and Jeisson Rosario (age 20). Potts is a power bat that crushed 56 home runs, 86 doubles, and six triples in 364 minor league games from 2017-2019. The Padres loved his power and pushed him aggressively, sending him to full season ball at 18 years old in 2017 and to High A and even AA as a 19 year old in 2018. He spent his age-20 season at AA again in 2019 and slashed .227/.290/.406 with 16 home runs in 107 games, a mixed bag of numbers given his age. The Red Sox look at how young he has been relative to his competition and think his plate discipline with a bit of acclimation, and while his power isn't quite of the standard of Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas, he's a better defender at third base who could stick there. However, with the presence of Rafael Devers in addition to Dalbec and Casas, he'll really have to earn that playing time. Rosario, meanwhile, hit just .242/.372/.314 over 120 games at High A last year, but he was also just 19 years old. The first thing that jumps off the page with Rosario is his patience, walking in 16.6% of his plate appearances last year despite his youth. He consistently works counts to hunt his pitch, though to this point, he hasn't hit for much impact with just 57 extra base hits over 289 games for his career. His approach is very contact-oriented, but he's very athletic and packs some lean strength into his 6'1" frame, so the Red Sox could tinker with his approach to tap some more power. At just 20 years old, he has plenty of time to experiment with different approaches to hitting, and his advanced plate discipline helps in that regard as well. He's a strong defender that should stick in center field, which also buys his bat more slack, so he's a high probability big leaguer in some capacity. If he can learn to generate more impact at the plate, he has a chance to start as a guy with 10-15 home runs a year and strong on-base percentages, though without significant gains in his power output, he's probably more of a fourth outfielder.

The Rest

I'll start with Edward Olivares (age 24) here. He's a huge get for the Royals after signing Trevor Rosenthal to a minor league contract, bringing a multitude of ways to impact the game. He hit .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 127 games in AA last year, and he's gotten his feet wet a bit in 13 games with the Padres (albeit at .176/.222/.294). There's no one carrying tool to Olivares' game, but he brings loose, easy power from a rangy 6'2" frame in addition to good feel for the barrel and nice speed as well. His aggressive approach will limit his on-base percentages in the majors, though his game fits well in that big Kansas City outfield and he has a chance to get lots of playing time pretty quickly. His ability to handle center field could bump Whit Merrifield to second base and Nicky Lopez down to the bench, and he also provides a controllable option to gradually take over for Alex Gordon slowly approaches retirement. Though he's not quite as fast, he should hit for more impact than Nick Heath, and with guys like Khalil Lee, Kyle Isbel, and Brewer Hicklen also working their way up, the future of the Royals outfield looks to be in a much more solid place. I don't necessarily see Olivares turning into a star, but he could be a 10-15 home run bat whose speed and defense helps him hold down regular playing time. Moving back to the West Coast, the Angels are picking up a power bullpen arm in Gerardo Reyes (age 27) in exchange for Jason Castro. Already 27, he's yet to do much at the major league level with a 7.62 ERA and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings last year, but the stuff is there for him to succeed. His fastball sits in the upper 90's and it isn't straight, either, with his lower arm angle putting great running and sinking action on it. He throws a short, tight slider that sneaks below bats and induces plenty of whiffs. He does a good job of filling up the strike zone but he struggles to hit individual spots, and going forward his success will likely hinge on that command. If he can tunnel his fastball and slider off each other, he has serious late inning potential. The Angels will try to get him there, but at 27 years old, he's not the youngest kid out there. And lastly, Matt Brash (age 22) isn't officially a Mariner just yet, but he's reported to be the player to be named later in the Taylor Williams deal. He was the Padres' fourth round pick out of Niagara University in 2019, then struck out eight over 5.1 innings (one earned run) in his pro debut that year. He looks like a reliever to the naked eye, showing a low 90's fastball that can creep up to 95 to go with a good changeup and a pair of decent breaking balls, all coming from a jerky delivery. However, Brash's pitch metrics are supposedly very good, and he has consistently performed at a high level everywhere he's gone. Additionally, he was showing a smoother delivery in 2020 in spring training, and he looks much more like a starting pitcher at this point. Brash probably profiles as a back-end starter, depending on the development of his offspeed stuff.

Phillies Acquire J.T. Realmuto

Phillies Get
C J.T. Realmuto (2019 Age: 28): 21 HR, .277/.340/.484, 3 SB, 126 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

Marlins Get
C Jorge Alfaro (2019 Age: 25-26): 10 HR, .262/.324/.407, 3 SB, 96 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
RHP Sixto Sanchez (2019 Age: 20-21): 4-3, 2.51 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 45/11 K/BB, 46.2 IP in High A
LHP Will Stewart (2019 Age: 21-22): 8-1, 2.06 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 90/21 K/BB, 113.2 IP in Class A
$250,000 in international bonus money

Phillies Perspective
The Phillies gave up a huge haul headlined by their top prospect to acquire the game's best catcher, but when you want to win a World Series, these are the things you have to do. They can actually stomach the loss of Sixto Sanchez due to the presence of Aaron Nola as well as numerous near-MLB ready starting pitchers in the minors, such as Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Enyel De Los Santos, JoJo Romero, and Connor Seabold. By including Jorge Alfaro, who would have been relegated to backup catcher if he hadn't gone to Miami, the Phillies were also able to avoid giving up one of their secondary top prospects such as Alec Bohm or Adam Haseley. Losing Sanchez really hurts, but a World Series ring could make them forget real quick. If Realmuto attracts Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, even better.

Moving on, I'm sure Phillies fans would much rather hear about J.T. Realmuto than Sixto Sanchez. He'll immediately slot in as the starting catcher as well as into the middle of the order. Where Rhys Hoskins was originally supposed to be the guy to lead a decent offensive core consisting of Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, and Odubel Hernandez, Realmuto steps in and transforms the middle of the lineup. In 2018, he slashed .277/.340/.484 with 21 home runs for the Marlins, but it gets better. He was much better on the road (13 HR, .283/.350/.520) than at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park (8 HR, .269/.329/.444), a trend that has remained true throughout his career, and moving to more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park will almost certainly boost his numbers. For 2019, it's not unreasonable to expect 25 home runs or more plus an on-base percentage over .350, which together with his defense would make him a five win catcher. He's only under contract for $5.9 million in 2019 and arbitration will limit how much he will make in 2020, so he's a real bargain monetarily. For his career, the Oklahoma City native has 59 home runs, a .279/.327/.442 slash line, and 14.3 fWAR over 540 games since 2014.

Marlins Perspective
The Marlins fielded offers on Realmuto for well over a year, asking for impact players like Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, and Nick Senzel, among others along the way, showing extreme patience that many thought would actually end up costing them. However, after landing elite prospect Sixto Sanchez in a deal with the Phillies, the patience paid off. Among the Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna trades, Sanchez is easily the best prospect they have acquired, and with Jorge Alfaro coming in, they don't have to worry about finding someone to catch in 2019.

Even though Sixto Sanchez is the headliner, I'll start with Jorge Alfaro, the lone major leaguer in the return. He's a 25 year old catcher whose strengths and weaknesses are both very apparent, as his power at the plate is balanced out by his over-aggressive approach and high strikeout totals while his cannon arm behind the plate is balanced out by his otherwise decent defense. His high upside will take patience to bring out, though at 25, it's very likely that he never reaches it. As it stands, Alfaro evens out to an average hitter and an average defender, though surprisingly few catchers can actually say the same these days and his defense has in fact been improving. Without much in the terms of challengers, Alfaro should hold down that catcher's role for the foreseeable future as roughly a two win player. For his career, the Colombia native has 15 home runs, a .270/.327/.422 slash line, and 2.5 fWAR over 143 games since 2016.
I've said it multiple times and I'll say it again: Sixto Sanchez is a stud. As I highlighted in the Phillies farm system review, he's a 20 year old right hander with a mid to upper 90's fastball with movement at the lower velocities, a very good curveball, and an advanced changeup, but unlike most young kids with electric stuff, he can actually command it and command it well. He battled elbow inflammation in 2018, which led to the Phillies questioning the six footer's durability just enough that they were comfortable with shipping him to Miami. Because the stuff and command are both so good at such a young age, the only thing that could realistically stop Sanchez from becoming a true ace would be that durability factor. The Marlins will likely handle him carefully as he transitions to AA in 2019, and a healthy Sanchez could be the top prospect in baseball by the time Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis graduate off the lists later this season. Moving on, Will Stewart is a 21 year old lefty who has slowly worked his way up through the low minors and reached Class A Lakewood this year, dominating to the tune of an 8-1 record, a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's a sleeper prospect who fuels his success with good command of a low 90's fastball and a great changeup, and he could be a quick riser now that he has established himself with that breakout 2018. Stewart has back end of the rotation projection and serves to cover some of the risk that Sanchez comes with.

Dodgers, Reds Engage in Blockbuster

Dodgers Get

RHP Homer Bailey (2019 Age: 33): 1-14, 6.09 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB, 106.1 IP

2B Jeter Downs (2019 Age: 20-21): 13 HR, .257/.351/.402, 37 SB, 118 wRC+ at Class A

RHP Josiah Gray (2019 Age: 21): 2-2, 2.58 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB, 52.1 IP in Rookie ball

Reds Get

OF Yasiel Puig (2019 Age: 28): 23 HR, .267/.327/.494, 15 SB, 123 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR

OF Matt Kemp (2019 Age: 34): 21 HR, .290/.338/.481, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

RHP Alex Wood (2019 Age: 28): 9-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 135/40 K/BB, 151.2 IP

C Kyle Farmer (2019 Age: 28): 0 HR, .235/.312/.324, 0 SB, 76 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

$7 million

There is a lot going on in his trade, from money flying all over the place to the Reds thinking they can contend to the Dodgers potentially making a play at Bryce Harper. In terms of salary, Homer Bailey is owed $28 million on his contract but with deferred payments, not all of that will count towards the Dodgers' luxury tax. Matt Kemp is owed roughly $21.5 million, Puig will make about $11 million after arbitration, and Wood about $9 million. With the additional $7 million going from Los Angeles to Cincinnati and money being paid in different ways, the Dodgers drop something in the $15 million range in luxury tax-related salary. 

Dodgers Perspective

First and foremost, the Dodgers cut salary here. That $15-ish million that is coming out of the Dodgers' luxury taxable salary will almost certainly go to acquiring some other free agent, likely an outfielder given that they just traded two. A.J. Pollock is one option, though of course, Bryce Harper is another. Signing Harper will push the Dodgers well over the luxury tax, but if they're willing to do so and potentially take penalties, Harper would fit right in in Los Angeles. Also, with Kemp and Puig out of the outfield, the Dodgers now have room to play Alex Verdugo every day. The 22 year old outfielder is an excellent pure hitter who can get on base at high clips, and with some power and speed, he looks like he could give them a fourth straight season with a serious NL Rookie of the Year contender or winner after Corey Seager (winner in 2016), Cody Bellinger (winner in 2017), and Walker Buehler (third place in 2018).

Among the players brought in, none figure to have an immediate impact on LA; this was a salary dump. Homer Bailey, who posted a 6.09 ERA over 20 starts, will never throw a pitch for the Dodgers - he has already been released, taking his $28 million from the Dodgers and saying "thank you" (in reality, his payments will be spread out). Even with Alex Wood leaving the rotation, the Dodgers have a full rotation in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and some combination of Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, and Julio Urias. In terms of prospects, the they did pick up a couple of solid future pieces that can potentially cover them if their draft pick gets pushed down due to Harper-related luxury tax penalties. Jeter Downs, aside from having one of the coolest names in the minors (the Jeter does, in fact, come from Derek Jeter), is a scouting favorite with tools all over the place. He slashed .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A Dayton, showing an advanced feel for hitting to go along with great speed, pretty good defense, some power, and a reputation for being a hard worker. He doesn't turn 21 until July, when he'll be at High A and potentially knocking on the door to AA if the transition goes smoothly. His upside is that of a good starting second baseman, one who can get on base, make plays, and hit for some power. Josiah Gray, a 2018 draftee (72nd overall) out of Division II Le Moyne College up in Syracuse, is new to pitching as a converted shortstop, but he doesn't seem new when he's on the mound. In twelve starts at rookie level Greeneville, he posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings, his supposed "lack of feel" given his new position clearly not being a factor. He has a loose, fresh arm that tosses mid 90's fastball and an improving slider, though his changeup and command need some work if he wants to start in the majors. He has a high ceiling as a mid-rotation starter but also comes with reliever risk. And by the way, happy birthday to Josiah, who was traded on his 21st birthday.

Reds Perspective

While the Reds took on some payroll, roughly $7 million, it's hard to call this anything but a win for them. They moved Homer Bailey's un-movable contract, added three valuable players, and didn't have to give up any of their top prospects. Now, their team actually looks surprisingly decent. The outfield was extremely thin with just Jesse Winker, Philip Ervin, and Scott Schebler projected to start, and now manager David Bell can mix and match five outfielders who will all be valuable in the right matchups. In the rotation, Alex Wood gives them a reliable veteran in a group of young arms, and if Luis Castillo bounces back, it could be average. Overall, I don't think the Reds contend for the NL Central crown in what looks like a very tough division, but that doesn't mean they can't grab a Wild Card spot if a few things break in their favor. Keep in mind I haven't said anything about Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, or top prospect and likely 2019 contributor Nick Senzel. The risk is also lower for the Reds, as they can flip any of Puig, Kemp, or Wood at the trade deadline if they're not contending, recouping some of the value lost in Downs and Gray.

In terms of new Reds, Yasiel Puig is probably the headliner. Known for his flamboyant style on the field, Puig slashed .267/.327/.494 with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 2018, which is more or less in line what he has done over the past few seasons. In Cincinnati, though, those numbers will probably go up due to Great American Ballpark's small dimensions. Meanwhile, Matt Kemp had a similar year at .290/.338/.481 with 21 home runs, though he is not as likely as Puig to maintain that production given his age (34) and inconsistent production over the past few seasons. Still, Great American Ballpark will give him a boost and and even in his worst offensive season, 2017, he still slashed .276/.318/.463 with 19 home runs for the Braves. The small ballpark might even mask some of his defensive concerns, and with five average outfielders now in Cincinnati, he probably won't play every day. Kemp can platoon with Schebler in left while Puig can platoon with Jesse Winker in right. On the mound, new starter Alex Wood has been up and down over the past couple of seasons, settling in the middle in 2018 by posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 135/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 151.2 innings, and he'll have more breathing room in a less crowded Cincinnati rotation. Now paired with Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani at the top of the rotation, that's a respectable front three. The final two spots will go to some combination of Cody Reed, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano, and Robert Stephenson, which in theory should give the Reds a pretty decent rotation that could make a run at a playoff spot. Lastly, catcher Kyle Farmer caught Wood back in 2010-2012, when both were teammates at the University of Georgia, then again in 2017-2018 with the Dodgers. He'll follow Wood to Cincinnati, where he'll likely compete with fellow former SEC catcher Curt Casali (Vanderbilt 2008-2011) to back up starter Tucker Barnhart. Farmer slashed a respectable .235/.312/.324 in 39 games in LA this year, showing a light bat and an average glove. 

Cardinals Acquire Paul Goldschmidt

Cardinals Get
1B Paul Goldschmidt (2019 Age: 31): 33 HR, .290/.389/.533, 7 SB, 145 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR

Diamondbacks Get
RHP Luke Weaver (2019 Age: 25): 7-11, 4.95 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 121/54 K/BB, 136.1 IP
C Carson Kelly (2019 Age: 24-25): 0 HR, .114/.205/.114, 0 SB, -4 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR
2B Andy Young (2019 Age: 25): 21 HR, .289/.379/.479, 4 SB, 144 wRC+ at High A/AA
2019 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick (after second round)

Cardinals Perspective
I really like this trade for the Cardinals. They got the centerpiece bat they have been lacking since the departure of Albert Pujols in 2011 (unless you count 2012-2013 Matt Holliday), and they didn't give up any important long term pieces to get it. Luke Weaver was a nice arm, but he had no place in a crowded Cardinals rotation, while Carson Kelly was stuck behind Yadier Molina. Paul Goldschmidt will now bring his consistent 30 HR/.400 OBP bat to St. Louis, pushing Matt Carpenter back to third base and Jose Martinez back into a wait-and-see role, ready to take over if anybody gets hurt in the outfield. Previously, a Carpenter/Marcell Ozuna/Paul DeJong/Jose Martinez offensive core looked pretty decent, but with Goldschmidt in the fold, it looks like one that could content for the NL Central title. Goldschmidt himself is coming off a big year in which he slashed .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs despite Arizona's implementation of the humidor, which suppresses offense, and at 31 I doubt there is any sort of significant decline just yet. He's due $14.5 million in 2019 before hitting free agency after the season, so although the Cardinals would like to have him for more than one season, $14.5 million is a very good bargain for a five win bat like his. For his career, the Houston area native has 209 home runs, a .297/.398/.532 slash line, 132 stolen bases, and 36.3 fWAR over 1092 games since 2011.

Diamondbacks Perspective
It's a fairly unique return for the D-Backs, because instead of getting prospects in return for their star first baseman, they brought on two major leaguers with long-term team control with one fringe prospect and a draft pick. This is consistent with Arizona's win-now strategy (or at least as consistent as possible given that they're sending their star to St. Louis), as Weaver and Kelly can help the team on Opening Day in 2019. For a team without a good farm system, having that kind of controllable, long-term talent can help extend their period of contention more than Goldschmidt, who is set to become a free agent after 2019. Luke Weaver is the centerpiece as a 25 year old starter with mixed success so far at the major league level. He had a 3.88 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over a 60.1 inning sample in 2017, but when he more than doubled that to 136.1 innings in 2018, his ERA jumped to 4.95 and his WHIP to 1.50. His strikeout rate dropped from 28.6% to 19.9% while his walk rate jumped from 6.8% to 8.9%, all of which altered his long-term projection. There was nothing in his Statcast profile, at least from his perspective, that really foreshadowed this regression; opponents just hit him harder as they got to him as a pitcher. In that case, it would be in Weaver's best interest to counter-adjust and give hitters a different look in 2019. The Diamondbacks sure hope he does, because he is under team control through the 2023 season. For 2019, he looks to replace Patrick Corbin in what is looking like a thin but effective rotation with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Zack Godley. For his career, the former Florida State Seminole is 15-17 with a 4.79 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 238/83 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games (43 starts) since 2016. Carson Kelly helps out a thin catching corps, which is currently led by Alex Avila and John Ryan Murphy. While his career MLB numbers look somewhat frightening (0 HR, .154/.227/.188 in 63 games), the 24 year old has the potential to be Arizona's starting catcher in 2019. While he has struggled in short, choppy stints in the majors, he has 17 home runs, a .275/.377/.424 slash line, and an 88/81 strikeout to walk ratio over 151 games at AAA Memphis over the past two seasons. While I don't think he'll be pushing .400 with his on-base percentages in the majors, the advanced plate discipline and present power make for a solid offensive skill set for a catcher, and his defense is so good that he should have no trouble starting if he can hit at all. He hasn't hit – at all – since reaching the majors, but with Yadier Molina out of his way and regular playing time more of a likelihood, he should be able to find his stroke and become the Diamondbacks' long term starter behind the plate. Like Weaver, he's under contract through 2023. Lastly, Andy Young is a bit of a throw-in, a wild card who could be nothing more than a bench bat or as good as a starting second baseman. A 37th round pick as a senior out of Indiana State in 2016, he has hit everywhere he has been and reached the upper minors in 2018. Starting at High A Palm Beach, he slashed .276/.372/.444 with 12 home runs and a nice 59/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games, showing good bat control and feel for the barrel. He was promoted to AA Springfield in July and caught fire, slashing .319/.395/.556 with nine home runs and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games, showing even more feel for the barrel during his hot stretch to close out the season. He's a quintessential Cardinals prospect, one who comes from relative obscurity and just never slows down with the bat. It's important to remember that he has been older than most of the competition he has faced, as he turns 25 in May and is older than Carson Kelly, so conventional wisdom would peg him as a utility infielder. However, with these out-of-nowhere Cardinals guys, don't underestimate him just yet.

Mets Acquire Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz

Mets Get
2B Robinson Cano (2019 Age: 36): 10 HR, .303/.374/.471, 0 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR
RHP Edwin Diaz (2019 Age: 25): 0-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP
$20 million (for Cano's contract)

Mariners Get
OF Jay Bruce (2019 Age: 32): 9 HR, .223/.310/.370, 2 SB, 89 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR
RHP Anthony Swarzak (2019 Age: 33): 0-2, 6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB, 26.1 IP
RHP Gerson Bautista (2019 Age: 23-24): 0-1, 12.46 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/5 K/BB, 4.1 IP
RHP Justin Dunn (2019 Age: 23): 8-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 156/52 K/BB, 135.1 IP at High A/AA
OF Jarred Kelenic (2019 Age: 19-20): 6 HR, .286/.371/.468, 15 SB, 124 wRC+ at complex/rookie

There is a lot to unpack in this trade, with core issues being not just player value but contract obligations. Robinson Cano has five years and $120 million left on his contract, and while he'll probably return significant value over the next two years or so, he won't be worth nearly the entire contract. Jay Bruce is owed $26 million over the next two seasons and Anthony Swarzak is owed $8.5 million for 2019, and neither player will likely cover the value of their deals either.

Mets Perspective
I did not like this trade for the Mets at first, but the more I look at it, the more I'm able to stomach it from their perspective. The Mariners will send $20 million along with Cano, making his contract a five year, $100 million commitment for the Mets while also taking $34.5 million more from them in the form of the Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak contracts, though of course they get their potential value to go along with the contracts. Assuming Bruce is worth something like $10-15 million over the next two seasons and Swarzak is worth something around $3 million next year, that excess $17-22 million of saved money over value can be factored into Cano's deal and assume that Cano will now cost them $78-83 million over five years, which is getting close to reasonable. Factor in all the money saved from and Cano's deal ends up adding $65.5 million over the next five years as well as the loss of Bruce's bat and Swarzak's arm. When broken down like that, we can consider Gerson Bautista, Justin Dunn, and Jarred Kelenic to be going over for Diaz, which on its own seems like a light package. Basically, whatever you think of this deal basically boils down to what you think is more important: overpaying for Cano by taking on roughly $80 million in money over value, or underpaying for Diaz by giving up only Bautista, Dunn, and Kelenic. Personally, I don't see this as the greatest deal for the Mets, but it's not as bad as I thought it was originally.

Money aside, Robinson Cano will be a big help for the Mets by providing an above average bat and decent enough defense at second base, at least in the short term. His .303/.374/.471 slash line last season was very good when given the SAFECO Field context, and he can give Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto some badly needed support in the lineup just as Peter Alonso comes up to join in. Back in 2016, he hit 39 home runs while slashing .298/.350/.533, and his decline has not been so steep as to think he can't hit like that for stretches in 2019 and 2020. Ultimately, I think he ends up somewhere around his 2017 numbers (23 HR, .280/.338/.453) for the first couple years in New York, which certainly doesn't justify the contract but that's what Edwin Diaz is for. There is also a very good chance that Cano reaches 3000 hits with the Mets, as he needs just 530 over five years. For his career, the Dominican has 311 home runs, a .304/.355/.493 slash line, and 56.3 fWAR over 2078 games since 2005. For all the talk about Cano, Edwin Diaz is actually the prized get. You can argue that he is the best reliever in the game, having put up a 1.96 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a ridiculous 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings in 2018. He had the same wicked stuff in 2017, but in 2018, the difference was that he could actually command it. When you have a closer who can't be hit and also throws strikes, that's bad news for opposing teams. He's also not a free agent until after the 2022 season, leaving him in Mets pinstripes for up to four years. For his career, the Puerto Rican has a 2.64 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 301/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 188 appearances since 2016.

Mariners Perspective
After dealing James Paxton earlier in the offseason, it looks like the Mariners are getting serious about adding to a farm system that I would argue was the worst in baseball coming into the offseason. Of course, that required them throwing in the towel for short term contention by letting go of two of their biggest stars in Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. They also shed roughly $65.5 million in payroll obligations while getting some very good prospects in return, so while I was on the fence from the Mets' perspective, I like it from the Mariners' side. In terms of the 2019 season, the biggest addition is Jay Bruce for now. Bruce hit 36 home runs and slashed .254/.324/.508 in 2017, but he slumped to .223/.310/.370 with nine home runs in 2018. The bat probably picks back up in 2019, and he'll see time in left field and at DH. The platoon situation will be interesting, as Bruce, left fielder Ben Gamel, and DH Dan Vogelbach are all left handed hitters, with first baseman Ryon Healy being the only right handed hitter in this shuffle. However, Healy is also arguably the best hitter in the group, so it will be hard to justify benching him against right handed pitching in order to get all the lefties into the lineup. My guess is Bruce sees most of his time at DH while Gamel stays in left, with Healy playing most games against right handers but being spelled occasionally by Dan Vogelbach, who loses the most playing time in this scenario. Bruce is under contract for $13 million in both 2019 and 2020, but it's well shy of Cano's annual $24 million obligation. For his career, the Texan has 286 home runs, a .247/.318/.466 slash line, and 20.1 fWAR over 1510 games since 2008. Anthony Swarzak, meanwhile joins the bullpen. He was really good in 2017 (2.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 91/22 K/BB in 77.1 IP) but cratered in 2018 (6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB in 26.1 IP) as he struggled with nagging injuries all season. If Swarzak can stay healthy, he can be a useful 7th or 8th inning reliever, but he comes with an $8.5 million contract for 2019 that the Mariners will be on the hook for regardless of his health. For his career, the South Florida native has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 433/174 strikeout to walk ratio over 316 games (32 starts) since 2009. Gerson Bautista will also join the bullpen, fresh off making his MLB debut in 2018. He spent the majority of the season at AA Binghamton and AAA Las Vegas, posting an ugly 5.14 ERA and 1.71 WHIP to go along with a very nice 69/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings. He can blow the ball by hitters with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a pretty good slider, but he leaves it over the plate and gets hit often. Just 23, he has time to learn the strike zone, but he's probably just a middle reliever unless something drastic changes. The real upside arm that the Mariners will be excited about is Justin Dunn, a Long Island native who is getting traded away from his hometown team. Dunn bounced back from a rough 2017 at High A Port St. Lucie (5.00 ERA, 75/48 K/BB in 95.1 IP) to have a very solid 2018, starting off by posting a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings back at St. Lucie. He wasn't quite as effective at AA Binghamton, where he had a 4.22 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, but he held his own and could be ready for the majors sometime in late 2019. The 23 year old throws hard and is continuing to work on his secondaries and command, and he's athletic enough to make it all work as a starting pitcher. Dunn probably won't be a top of the rotation arm in Seattle, but he has a good shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter in the near future. Lastly, Jarred Kelenic might end up being the prized get for the Mariners. The teenage outfielder was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft out of high school in Wisconsin, and the kid already known for his advanced bat decided to slash .413/.451/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in complex ball. Promoted to Kingsport in the rookie level Appalachian League, he slashed .253/.350/.431 with five home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He doesn't turn 20 until July but he already shows an advanced feel for both the barrel and the strike zone, good speed, and some power. He obviously has a lot to prove, starting with handling A ball pitching in the spring, but he has legitimate leadoff upside down the road in Seattle.

Yankees Kick Off Offseason, Acquire James Paxton

Yankees Get
LHP James Paxton (Age 30): 11-6, 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 208/42 K/BB, 160.1 IP
Mariners Get
LHP Justus Sheffield (Age 22): 0-0, 10.13 ERA, 2.63 WHIP, 0/3 K/BB, 2.2 IP
RHP Erik Swanson (Age 25): 8-2, 2.66 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 139/29 K/BB, 121.2 IP at Short Season, AA, and AAA
OF Dom Thompson-Williams (Age 23): 22 HR, .299/.363/.546, 20 SB, 156 wRC+ at Class A and High A

Yankees Perspective
The Yankees kicked off the offseason with the first big splash, bringing in an above average major league starter that looks like an ace when he's healthy; unfortunately, James Paxton has never thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (162) as he has struggled to stay on the mound, though he has been healthier the past two seasons. Since 2017, the big Canadian lefty is 23-11 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 364/79 strikeout to walk ratio over 296.1 innings; that's pretty darn good. Luis Severino will be back as the ace, but Paxton will fit in well as a #2 starter ahead of Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, and presumably one other yet-to-be-signed free agent addition like J.A. Happ. Losing Sheffield hurts, but Paxton is under team control for both 2019 and 2020 and no pitching prospect is a safe bet. The other two prospects lost were good players in their own rights but didn't really fit into the Yankees' long term plans. For his career, the former Kentucky Wildcat is 41-26 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 617/168 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 starts since 2013.

Mariners Perspective
The Mariners never really got over that contention hump, building up a team that was good but not good enough to pass the Astros. Now, they'll start adding to what looks like arguably the weakest farm system in baseball by bringing in three close-to-the-big-leagues talents, and Justus Sheffield immediately becomes arguably the top prospect overall. He's a 6' lefty who put up a strong minor league season with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 123/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings between AA Trenton and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. His command is just okay but his stuff is good enough to make him a mid-rotation starter in the near future, and it would not be surprising to see Sheffield break camp in the team's rotation in 2019. Erik Swanson is coming up right behind Sheffield, having dominated at AA Trenton (0.42 ERA, 55/15 K/BB in 42.2 IP) before carrying some of that success over to AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre (3.86 ERA, 78/14 K/BB in 72.1 IP). He's more of a pitchability prospect with a lower ceiling than Sheffield, but he too could join the 2019 rotation as a back-end guy who can get outs. Having just turned 25 in September, he's an older prospect but that's okay considering he's just about major league ready. Lastly, Dom Thompson-Williams is a little farther off but comes with a high ceiling. Over 100 games between Class A Charleston and High A Tampa, he slashed .299/.363/.546 with 22 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 102/33 strikeout to walk ratio, showing power and speed but some rawness in his approach for a 23 year old in the mid-minors. The numbers are great but he's a little old for where he is in the minors and he probably ends up a fourth outfielder if he doesn't shore up his approach in 2019.

The Trade Deadline All In One Place

AL East

75-33 Boston Red Sox (buyers)
Acquired: Ian Kinsler, Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Jalen Beeks, minor leaguers Ty Buttrey, Williams Jerez, Santiago Espinal, Lorenzo Cedrola
Made minor upgrades without selling the farm 

67-37 New York Yankees (buyers)
Acquired: Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Luke Voit, international bonus money
Traded: Brandon Drury, Adam Warren, Chasen Shreve, Tyler Austin, Giovanny Gallegos, Billy McKinney, minor leaguers Dillon Tate, Caleb Frare, Cody Carroll, Josh Rodgers, Luis Rijo
Made roster much more efficient but upgrading positions, selling off expendables, and dealing from depth

53-53 Tampa Bay Rays (both)
Acquired: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Hoby Milner, Jalen Beeks, minor leaguers Brian Shaffer, Michael Perez, two players to be named later, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Andriese, Wilson Ramos, Jonny Venters, Jeremy Hazelbaker, minor leaguers Genesis Cabrera, Justin Williams, Roel Ramirez, Hunter Schryver, cash
Took interesting path by acquiring some controllable players while also selling off all kinds of players from Chris Archer to prospects to free agent rentals

48-57 Toronto Blue Jays (sellers)
Acquired: Ken Giles, Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney, David Paulino, minor leaguers Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger, Hector Perez, Corey Copping, Jacob Waguespack
Traded: Roberto Osuna, J.A. Happ, Seung-Hwan Oh, Aaron Loup, John Axford
Added to strong farm system while also ridding themselves of domestic abuser Roberto Osuna, overall a great job 

32-74 Baltimore Orioles (sellers)
Acquired: Jonathan Villar, Evan Phillips, Breyvic Valera, minor leaguers Yusniel Diaz, Bruce Zimmerman, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Luis Ortiz, Dillon Tate, Brett Cumberland, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, Cody Carroll, Josh Rodgers, Jean Carmona, international bonus money
Traded: Manny Machado, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, Jonathan Schoop, Brad Brach, Darren O'Day
Finally got serious about a rebuild and completely revamped their farm system by tearing down the team in such a way that would make the Marlins look conservative

AL Central

57-48 Cleveland Indians (buyers)
Acquired: Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, Leonys Martin, James Hoyt, minor leaguers Oscar Mercado, Kyle Dowdy
Trade: Francisco Mejia, minor leaguers Willi Castro, Conner Capel, Jhon Torres, Tommy DeJuneas
Upgraded bullpen and outfield but outside of Brad Hand, no major pieces moved

49-56 Minnesota Twins (sellers)
Acquired: Logan Forsythe, Tyler Austin, Chase De Jong, Jeremy Hazelbaker, minor leaguers Jhoan Duran, Ernie De La Trinidad, Gabriel Maciel, Gilberto Celestino, Jorge Alcala, Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, Ryan Costello, Luis Rijo, Jon Kemmer
Traded: Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, cash
Added high-upside talent by offloading some of the bigger names on the roster

45-62 Detroit Tigers (neither)
Acquired: Minor leaguer Willi Castro
Traded: Leonys Martin, minor leaguer Kyle Dowdy
Stayed mostly quiet after wild deadline last season

37-68 Chicago White Sox (sellers)
Acquired: Minor leaguers Kodi Medeiros, Wilber Perez, Caleb Frare, Hunter Schryver
Traded: Joakim Soria, international bonus money
Quiet deadline, but they did grab a quality prospect in Medeiros

32-73 Kansas City Royals (sellers)
Acquired: Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, minor leaguers Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez, Yohanse Morel
Traded: Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, minor leaguer Jacob Condra-Bogan
Also quiet, added some nice young outfield pieces for a couple long-time players

AL West

67-41 Houston Astros (buyers)
Acquired: Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Martin Maldonado, minor leaguer Tommy DeJuneas
Traded: Ken Giles, David Paulino, James Hoyt, minor leaguers Hector Perez, Gilberto Celestino, Jorge Alcala, Patrick Sandoval, Jon Kemmer, international bonus money
Grabbed two quality arms and a catcher in exchange for a host of arms from the system

63-43 Seattle Mariners (buyers)
Acquired: Cameron Maybin, Adam Warren, Zach Duke, Sam Tuivailala
Traded: Chase de Jong, minor leaguers Seth Elledge, Bryson Brigman, Ryan Costello, international bonus money
Added reinforced bullpen without giving up any top prospects from a depleted farm system

62-46 Oakland Athletics (buyers)
Acquired: Jeurys Familia
Traded: Bobby Wahl, minor leaguer Will Toffey, international bonus money
Quiet deadline but got Familia at a big discount

54-53 Los Angeles Angels (sellers)
Acquired: Ty Buttrey, minor leaguers Patrick Sandoval, Williams Jerez, international bonus money
Traded: Ian Kinsler, Martin Maldonado, cash
Unlucky season forced Angels to sell, though it was more of a re-stock than a tear-down

46-62 Texas Rangers (sellers)
Acquired: Austin Jackson, Cory Gearrin, Eddie Butler, minor leaguers Taylor Hearn, Jason Bahr, Rollie Lacy, Tyler Thomas, Wei-Chieh Huang, three players to be named later
Traded: Cole Hamels, Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, Jesse Chavez, player to be named later
Sent all of their arms off and brought back...a lot of players to be named later, though Taylor Hearn is a big get

NL East

58-48 Philadelphia Phillies (buyers)
Acquired: Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilson Ramos, Aaron Loup, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Hoby Milner, minor leaguers Franklyn Kilome, Jacob Waguespack, Elniery Garcia, player to be named later
Made some minor but necessary additions while dealing from position of depth

56-47 Atlanta Braves (buyers)
Acquired: Kevin Gausman, Adam Duvall, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach, Jonny Venters
Traded: Matt Wisler, Preston Tucker, Lucas Sims, Evan Phillips, minor leaguers Bruce Zimmerman, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Brett Cumberland, international bonus money
Did a great job of adding quality arms and Duvall without giving up anyone that figured prominently into their long term plans, simultaneously paving way for William Contreras by trading Cumberland

52-53 Washington Nationals (neither)
Acquired: Kelvin Herrera, minor leaguers Jhon Romero, Jacob Condra-Bogan
Traded: Brandon Kintzler, Brian Goodwin, minor leaguers Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez, Yohanse Morel
Stood mostly idle during what should have been a frantic trade deadline, seemingly content with mediocrity

44-59 New York Mets (sellers)
Acquired: Bobby Wahl, minor leaguers Will Toffey, Franklyn Kilome, international bonus money
Traded: Asdrubal Cabrera, Jeurys Familia
Unloaded difference makers to give their farm system a quick jolt

46-60 Miami Marlins (sellers)
Acquired: Minor leaguers Tommy Eveld, Bryson Brigman, international bonus money
Traded: Cameron Maybin, Brad Ziegler
Amid swirling J.T. Realmuto rumors, elected to just send off two decent pieces for a couple of prospects

NL Central

61-44 Chicago Cubs (buyers)
Acquired: Cole Hamels, Brandon Kintzler, Jesse Chavez, cash
Traded: Eddie Butler, minor leaguers Rollie Lacy, Jhon Romero, Tyler Thomas, player to be named later
Were able to make nice upgrades to pitching staff despite lack of prospects to give

62-47 Milwaukee Brewers (buyers)
Acquired: Jonathan Schoop, Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria, cash
Traded: Jonathan Villar, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, minor leaguers Luis Ortiz, Kodi Medeiros, Wilber Perez, Jean Carmona
Addressed a quite few needs but did have to take from farm system to do so

55-52 Pittsburgh Pirates (buyers)
Acquired: Chris Archer, Keone Kela
Traded: Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Taylor Hearn, two players to be named later
Made huge additions to pitching staff, but at a steep cost

54-52 St. Louis Cardinals (sellers)
Acquired: Chasen Shreve, Giovanny Gallegos, minor leaguers Genesis Cabrera, Justin Williams, Roel Ramirez, Seth Elledge, Conner Capel, Jhon Torres, Elniery Garcia
Traded: Tommy Pham, Sam Tuivailala, Luke Voit, minor leaguer Oscar Mercado, international bonus money
Had a quick re-tool and grabbed some quality prospects in the process, could still compete in 2018

48-58 Cincinnati Reds (sellers)
Acquired: Matt Wisler, Preston Tucker, Lucas Sims, minor leaguers James Marinan, Aneurys Zabala, Lorenzo Cedrola
Traded: Adam Duvall, Dylan Floro, Zach Neal, international bonus money
Deadline has to be disappointing with small return for Adam Duvall

NL West

59-48 Los Angeles Dodgers (buyers)
Acquired: Manny Machado, Brian Dozier, John Axford, Dylan Floro, Zach Neal, international bonus money
Traded: Logan Forsythe, Breyvic Valera, minor leaguers Yusniel Diaz, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, James Marinan, Aneurys Zabala, Corey Copping
Made huge upgrades to infield, had to part with many prospects but kept all top prospects except Diaz

59-49 Arizona Diamondbacks (buyers)
Acquired: Eduardo Escobar, Brad Ziegler, Jake Diekman, Matt Andriese
Traded: Minor leaguers Jhoan Duran, Ernie De La Trinidad, Gabriel Maciel, Brian Shaffer, Michael Perez, Wei-Chieh Huang, Tommy Eveld, player to be named later
Made quite a few important upgrades but had to part with a large number of prospects, avoiding the big names but still denting the farm system

57-48 Colorado Rockies (buyers)
Acquired: Seung-Hwan Oh
Traded: Minor leaguers Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger
Quiet deadline, probably will hurt them in the chase for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks because they need more offense

54-54 San Francisco Giants (neither)
Acquired: Player to be named later
Traded: Austin Jackson, Cory Gearrin, minor leaguer Jason Bahr
Made salary dump trade early in July then stood idle at the deadline

42-67 San Diego Padres (sellers)
Acquired: Francisco Mejia
Traded: Brad Hand, Adam Cimber
Success of this deadline will depend on whether Mejia sticks as a catcher

Pirates, Rays Complete Chris Archer Blockbuster

Pirates Get: RHP Chris Archer (3-5, 4.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 102/31 K/BB, Age 29)
Rays Get: OF Austin Meadows (5 HR, .292/.327/.468, 4 SB, 110 wRC+, Age 23)
RHP Tyler Glasnow (1-2, 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/34 K/BB, Age 24)
Player to be named later

After years of rumors that he would be moved, the Rays finally shipped star pitcher Chris Archer north to Pittsburgh. It's an especially big day for Pittsburgh, who is usually on the other end of deals like this (see Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, Tony Watson, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, you get it). This deal certainly accomplishes a goal for both teams, and while it makes a bit more sense for Tampa than it does for Pittsburgh, in my opinion, both teams come out winners.

The Pirates were sitting at 40-48 coming off their fifth straight loss on July 7th, but they have turned it around to go 15-4 since then and now sit at 55-52, just 3.5 games back of the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card. In adding star pitcher Chris Archer, ownership sent a clear message to the team; we believe in you, and let's win now. Of course, the cost was steep, perhaps too steep, but the reality is that Archer does change the dynamic of this team. It's unclear who draws the short straw in the current rotation, though it looks like it will be Joe Musgrove or Nick Kingham, with Archer settling in at the top with Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, and Trevor Williams. Archer himself is a bit of a mixed bag. I'm not backtracking on the statement that he changes the dynamic of the team: his vibrant personality, high strikeout totals, partial track record of success, and team-friendly contract (his options run through 2021 and total just $24 million for 2019-2021) provide a big jolt to the Pirates. However, when you look at the numbers, Archer is more of a mid-rotation starter than an ace. From 2013-2015, he was great, even ace-like, going 31-29 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 89 starts, even striking out 252 batters (29%) in 2015. In 2016, his ERA jumped to 4.02 but he still struck out 233 batters (27.4%), then it was more of the same in 2017, when his ERA was 4.07 and he struck out 249 (29.2%). This year, his ERA is up to 4.31 and his strikeout rate is down to 24.7%, and at this point I think he is who he has been over the past three seasons rather than the previous three seasons from 2013-2015. Still, 24.7% is a high strikeout rate, and when you strike out guys at that rate while keeping your walks down like Archer does, you're not likely to see your ERA jump much higher than the 4.31 it currently sits at. In the end, they probably gave up too much, but it's a deal whose message is perhaps more important than its personnel. For his career, the Raleigh-area native is 54-68 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 1146/347 strikeout to walk ratio (25.7% to 7.8%) over 1063 innings, all with the Rays.

Meanwhile, the Rays have to be very happy with the value they pulled out of Archer, and this trade is very on-brand for the team. They somehow always manage to rebuild without tanking, which is very rare for small market teams, and it looks like they'll be ready to contend as soon as 2019. With Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, Christian Arroyo, Blake Snell, and a hoard of young pitchers just breaking into the majors, a core is forming and it could surprise everyone. Because of this, the Rays brought back two young, post-hype players who are already in the majors and can contribute immediately, and I think that's great for them. I'll start with Austin Meadows, who was drafted ninth overall out of high school outside Atlanta in 2013. It's been a bumpy road since then, as he has spent significant time on the disabled list in every season except 2015, but he is finally healthy this year and the results have been great. In 49 games with the Pirates, he is slashing .292/.327/.468 with five home runs and four stolen bases, good for a very respectable 110 wRC+. I think that's about indicative of his true talent, and over a full season, that's borderline All Star caliber. If he continues to stay healthy and get more time on the field under his belt, it's not hard to envision him as a 20/20 player, and it's easy to forget he just turned 23 in May. Kevin Kiermaier, Tommy Pham, and Carlos Gomez have the three starting outfield spots for now, but Gomez doesn't seem like much of a road block and Meadows should get plenty of playing time. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow was at one time one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and for good reason; to date, over 118 minor league games (117 starts), his performance record looks like this: 45-21, 2.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 785/278 K/BB (33% to 11.7%) over 593.1 innings. However, his stock is down after years of not being able to translate that success to the majors. His extended look in 2017 was especially ugly, as he went 2-7 with a 7.69 ERA, a 2.02 WHIP, and a 56/44 strikeout to walk ratio (18.4% to 14.4%) over 62 innings, his lack of command really hurting him. They shifted him to the bullpen this year and the results have been moderately better: 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/34 K/BB (29.6% to 14%), the strikeout rate noticeably up but the lack of command still keeping him from being a true difference maker. He turns just 25 in a few weeks and a change of scenery should do him good, and if the Rays can get his command under control (no pun intended) then his ceiling is not too far off from Chris Archer. For his career, he is 3-11 with a 5.79 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 152/91 strikeout to walk ratio (23.3% to 13.9%) over 141.1 innings. Additionally, don't discount the player to be named later, as he is reportedly supposed to be a more than just a throw in.

Blue Jays, Astros Swap Relief Aces

Astros Get: RHP Roberto Osuna (0-0, 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13/1 K/BB, Age 23)

Blue Jays Get: RHP Ken Giles (0-2, 4.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB, Age 27)

RHP David Paulino (0-0, 4.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/6 K/BB at GCL and AAA, Age 24)

RHP Hector Perez (3-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 101/48 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)

The Blue Jays and Astros swapped two of the game's better relievers, and I have to say I think the Blue Jays come out on top of this one. Osuna is more consistent than Giles, but when he's at his best, Giles can be just as good, and unlike Osuna, he does not have a domestic abuse suspension on his record. With the two minor league arms coming along with Giles, it's hard to see the Jays as anything but clear winners here.

New Astros relief ace Roberto Osuna is a controversial player, and for good reason. Back in May, he was suspended 75 games for domestic violence, and his court date is set for Wednesday. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow stated that the front office believes he "...is remorseful, has willfully complied with all consequences related to his past behavior, has proactively engaged in counseling, and will fully comply with our zero tolerance policy related to abuse of any kind..." From the outside, it's tough to say whether the Astros truly believe Osuna has grown from the incident or whether they're just releasing the statement to cover themselves, so I'll let you make of it what you want to. On to baseball analysis: when he's on the field, Osuna is as good a reliever as anybody in the game, save for maybe Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. He broke into the majors at just 20 years old in 2015 as the first player ever born in 1995, immediately contributing with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 68 appearances, striking out 75 and walking just 16 in 69.2 innings. His numbers were very similar in 2016, and while his ERA jumped to 3.38 in 2017, he put up a career-best 83/9 strikeout to walk ratio (33.3% to 3.6%) in 64 innings. In 15 appearances before his suspension this year, he had a 2.93 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 13/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings, i.e. more of the same. What sets Osuna apart from other elite relievers is his consistency, and that is something the Astros have not gotten from their bullpen. Along with newly acquired Ryan Pressly, he'll hope to jump start the bullpen, which also includes Chris Devenski, Tony Sipp, Will Harris, Joe Smith, and Hector Rondon as big names. He's under team control for 2018, 2019, and 2020, so it's not just a rental. For his career, the Mexico native has a 2.87 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 253/40 strikeout to walk ratio (29% to 4.6%) over 223 innings.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays did a fantastic job here, simultaneously ridding themselves of a domestic abuser and picking up a nearly as good major league arm plus two prospects. Ken Giles, like Osuna, is under team control for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and when he's at his best, he's as good. Back in 2015, he posted a 1.80 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 69 appearances for the Astros, striking out 87 and walking 25 in 70 innings. In 2017, he had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 83/21 strikeout to walk ratio (33.6% to 8.5%) in 62.2 innings. However, those were the peaks, and in 2016, his ERA sat at 4.11 (though 102 strikeouts put his K rate at 35.7%), and this year, he has been inconsistent enough to earn a demotion to AAA Fresno. Through 34 appearances with the Astros, he has a 4.99 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 31/3 strikeout to walk ratio (24% to 2.3%) over 30.2 innings, the uptick in earned runs coming from increased hittability. Though his strikeouts are down a little, it's nice to see the low walk rate as well, and hopefully the BABIP gods (his is .366 this year) will work more in his favor in Toronto with Kevin Pillar out there catching all those fly balls. For his career, the Albuquerque native has a 2.72 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 367/85 strikeout to walk ratio (32.6% to 7.5%) over 274.2 innings. David Paulino is very well known to prospect enthusiasts at this point, pushing his way to being ranked the 38th best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2017 season by my favorite prospect evaluator, John Sickels at Minor League Ball. However, his stock tumbled that year as he pitched in just nine professional games (three at AAA Fresno, six in the majors), missing much of the season to a PED suspension and then ending his season early with elbow surgery. He missed much of this season recovering from that surgery but has managed to pitch in just seven games, with three coming in rehab work in the Gulf Coast League and four coming with AAA Fresno (5.50 ERA, 23/5 K/BB in 18 innings). The 6'7" right hander has starter quality stuff and is talented enough to profile near the top of a major league rotation, but the multitude of injuries he has suffered throughout his career make it look more and more likely he'll have to switch to the bullpen in order to stay healthy. He's 24 and in AAA, so he's just about major league ready and just needs to prove he can stay on the mound. In nine career MLB games (seven starts) from 2016-2017, the Dominican is 2-1 with a 6.25 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 36/10 strikeout to walk ratio (22.9% to 6.4%) over 36 innings. Lastly, Hector Perez has a lower ceiling but is a much safer bet than Paulino. The 6'3" righty has been brought along slowly in the Astros organization but he's pitching as well as ever this year. Starting in High A Buies Creek, he went 3-3 with a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 83/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 72.2 innings, showing great stuff but the need for better command. Recently promoted to AA Corpus Christi, he hasn't missed a beat, posting a 3.24 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.2 innings. At every level, his command problems look like they will finally catch up to him with his next promotion, but so far they haven't and now that he's in AA, his consistent performance makes him look like he could be a fine #3 or #4 starter with the possibility for more. He just turned 22 in June.

Indians Upgrade Bullpen with Hand, Padres Add Top Prospect Mejia

Indians get: LHP Brad Hand (2-4, 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 65/15 K/BB, Age 28)
RHP Adam Cimber (3-5, 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 51/10 K/BB, Age 27)
Padres get: C/IF/OF Francisco Mejia (0 HR, .000/.500/.000, 0 SB, 117 wRC+, Age 22)

Lefty Brad Hand has been on the trade block for a while now, and the Padres finally let him (and Aaron Cimber) go over to Cleveland in exchange for top prospect Francisco Mejia. The Indians' bullpen is far under-performing, with its 5.28 ERA ranking second to last in baseball just one year after its 2.89 ERA led all of baseball. Hand, who has been one of the best left handers in baseball over the past three seasons, should change that. Though he hasn't quite been pitching to his 2017 levels (2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 104/20 K/BB), his 3.05 ERA this year and 1.08 WHIP are very respectable and at this point, he has proven to be consistently well above average, something few relievers can do. Joining Cody Allen and Andrew Miller at the back of that bullpen will once again give the Indians something to be proud of in the later innings. As a huge bonus, Hand is under contract through the 2020 season, being owed just $6.5 million in 2019 and $7 million in 2020. He has a $10 million option in 2021 as well, which is very affordable if he continues to perform to this level. Meanwhile, perhaps submarining righty Adam Cimber will get lost in this trade, but he shouldn't be. The 27 year old rookie has matched Hand nearly pitch for pitch this season, doing so from an extreme submarine delivery. He's old for a rookie, having been drafted back in 2013 as a senior out of the University of San Francisco, but he should be ale to shore up the middle innings for quite a few years.

This isn't your typical trade because in exchange for their controllable star and an extra piece, the Padres are only getting one prospect back. That prospect happens to be nationally-recognized catcher Francisco Mejia, but it's still just one prospect. You can look at it in two ways. From one perspective, Padres were only able to get one prospect, and even though he is one of the better prospects in the game, they're putting all their eggs in one basket while trading away a controllable star. If you look at it another way, the Padres were able to get a prospect many would view as "untouchable," a potential superstar who could headline a package for just about anyone in baseball, without trading away a true superstar of their own. To me, it all comes down to whether the Padres think he can catch. There's few questions about the bat; he slashed .297/.346/.490 with 14 home runs at AA Akron in 2017, and though he started slow this year, he has built his slash line up .279/.328/.426 with seven home runs for AAA Columbus. In fact, he was hitting just .178/.236/.276 with three total home runs as late as May 24th, but he has caught fire since then, including a .455/.476/.717 slash line in June. He profiles as a guy with middling home run power, perhaps 15-20 per season, while maintaining a high batting average and a decent on-base percentage. That's not necessary the most exciting offensive package, but if he can stick behind the plate, he suddenly ends up in the same realm as J.T. Realmuto and Gary Sanchez. However, if his mediocre receiving skills cause him to move to third base or the outfield, something he doesn't want to do, he becomes more of a decent regular who can put up 2.0-3.0 fWAR per season. I haven't watched enough of Mejia to be able to say whether I think he can stick behind the plate, but I can tell you this; if you like his chances back there, it's a great trade, but if you don't, you can't help but be just a little disappointed that he's all you got for Hand. We'll have to see.

Dodgers Land Manny Machado

Dodgers get: SS Manny Machado (24 HR, .315/.387/.575, 8 SB, 156 wRC+, Age 26)
Orioles get: 2B Breyvic Valera (0 HR, .172/.273/.172, 0 SB, 34 wRC+, Age 26)
OF Yusniel Diaz (6 HR, .314/.428/.477, 8 SB, 147 wRC+ at AA, Age 21)
RHP Dean Kremer (6-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 125/29 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)
3B Rylan Bannon (20 HR, .296/.402/.559, 4 SB, 159 wRC+ at High A, Age 22)
RHP Zach Pop (1-2, 1.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 47/13 K/BB at Class A and High A, Age 21)

The Orioles are an absolute joke this season at 28-69 heading into the All Star Break, a full 39.5 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The one bright spot, and I mean the one, lone, single bright spot has been Manny Machado, who has been playing like the perennial All Star he always has been but who also is a free agent after the season. When you're 39.5 games back in your division and 30 games back of the second wild card spot, the season is over, and you might as well get some value out of Machado while you can. Meanwhile, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager went down with an elbow injury at the end of April and he won't play again this year. Given LA's prospect depth, that makes them the perfect landing spot for a rental infielder like Machado, who will reportedly see time at both shortstop and third base for the remainder of the season. Through 96 games with the O's this year, he's slashing .315/.387/.575 with 24 home runs, good for a 156 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR. That is a game changing stat line regardless of defensive value, and when you can play a terrific third base and a very decent shortstop to go along with it, that's team-changing. The one knock on Machado has been his very sharp home/road split; playing 48 games apiece, he is slashing .360/.448/.691 with 17 home runs at home and .274/.329/.468 with seven home runs on the road. His strikeout to walk ratios are also drastically different: 21/28 at home and 30/17 on the road. His plate discipline has always been at least somewhat better at home, so maybe he just like's the batters' eye? My guess is most of it is dumb luck and the random nature of statistics in small(ish) sample sizes. While Camden Yards is definitely a hitters' park, its effects aren't that drastic. He'll continue to hit great out west, but maybe his wOBA drops by .010 or .020 or so.

Meanwhile, the Orioles got an array of prospects, but none are more valuable than 21 year old outfielder Yusniel Diaz, around whom the deal is centered. Diaz is a Cuban signee in his third pro season, and he's playing his best baseball by slashing .314/.428/.477 with six home runs and a 39/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games at AA Tulsa. Diaz will never get up into that 20-30 home run range, even in Baltimore, but he's a great athlete that should hit around 15-20 home runs per season in Camden while also getting on base and playing good defense. He shows great plate discipline and sprays line drives around the park, and though his base running could use some work (he has been caught stealing 30 times in 54 attempts in the minor leagues), he's fast. On defense, he could be above average at the outfield corners or hold his own in center field, and he has the upside of a starting outfielder who could get on base at a clip near .400 with that moderate power and good defense. Breyvic Valera is the only one of the quintet to have played in the majors, appearing in five games for the Cardinals in 2017 and 20 more for the Dodgers this year. He hasn't been great in either trial, slashing .154/.250/.154 with no extra base hits for his career, but he's an established minor league bat that should be able to stick as a utility infielder once he translates his success to the majors. In 56 games at AAA Oklahoma City this year, he's hitting a much better .284/.350/.433 with six home runs and a nice 20/21 strikeout to walk ratio. He's already 26, but he should be able to help out off the bench. Right handed pitcher Dean Kremer has taken very well to his transition to full-time starting. In 16 starts with High A Rancho Cucamonga in the very hitter-friendly California League, he went 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP,  striking out 114 and walking 26 in 79 innings. Those are fantastic numbers for that league. Upon being promoted to AA Tulsa, he dominated Midland (A's AA) in his first start, tossing seven shutout innings on three hits, three walks, and eleven strikeouts. He was somewhat buried in a deep Dodgers farm system, but in a much more shallow Baltimore system, he has a chance to push his way to the majors as a starting pitcher. You may remember him from the World Baseball Classic, where the Israeli citizen pitched for Team Israel during its improbable run. Third baseman Rylan Bannon has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the eighth round out of Xavier in 2017, slashing .336/.425/.591 in the rookie-level Pioneer League last year before skipping straight to High A Rancho Cucamonga this year. Through 89 games, he is slashing .296/.402/.559 with 20 home runs and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, great numbers even when you account for the boost he's getting from the Cal League. Those numbers are a little inflated and he probably ends up an average hitter at the major league level, though his 14.6% walk rate will really help him maintain value as a guy who can get on base. If he cuts down his strikeouts, he has an outside shot at starting in the Orioles infield down the road. Right hander Zach Pop is a relief prospect that has been exceptional since the Dodgers "popped" him in the seventh round of the 2017 draft out of the University of Kentucky, ranking 135th on my pre-draft list. He was used exclusively as a reliever during his junior year of college, and he took a big step forward when the Dodgers cleaned up his command. Beginning at Class A Great Lakes, he posted a 2.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over eleven appearances, striking out 24 and walking seven in 16.1 innings. When he earned the promotion to High A Rancho Cucamonga in that hitter-friendly Cal League, he seemed to reach another gear, posting a 0.33 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP, and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. He throws hard, hitting the upper 90's at times, and his slider ranges from loopy meatball to un-hittable. He projects as a middle relief type or set-up man. Overall, the package obviously centers on Diaz and whether he can successfully become an impact player in Baltimore, but there is a lot of depth behind him and at least one or two of the others will likely end up making an impact down the road.

Diamondbacks Acquire Steven Souza in Three Team Trade

Diamondbacks Get: Steven Souza: 30 HR, .239/.351/.459, 16 SB, 120 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR from the Rays 

Minor leaguer Taylor Widener: 7-8, 3.39 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 129/50 K/BB, 119.1 IP at High Class A from the Yankees

Yankees Get: Brandon Drury: 13 HR, .267/.317/.447, 1 SB, 92 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR from the Diamondbacks

Rays Get: Anthony Banda: 2-3, 5.96 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 25/10 K/BB, 25.1 IP from the Diamondbacks

Minor leaguer Nick Solak: 12 HR, .297/.384/.452, 14 SB, 143 wRC+ at High Class A and AA from the Yankees

Two players to be named later from the Diamondbacks

There's always a lot to unpack with three team trades, but I am going to start off by saying the Diamondbacks were big winners here. They gave up four players, but they weren't impact guys, and in return brought on a very good outfielder and a solid prospect. Steven Souza is better than he gets credit for, and will replace J.D. Martinez while joining A.J. Pollock and David Peralta in that Arizona outfield. As I said, he's a very good player who hasn't gotten a lot of media love, partly due to his .239 batting average last year. Looking past that (because batting average doesn't matter), his on-base percentage was a more than solid .351 due to a very good 13.6% walk rate, and with his 30 home runs, he slugged .459 to be put together to a 120 wRC+, which was ahead of guys like Travis Shaw (119), Francisco Lindor (118), and Christian Yelich (115). Put that together his respectable defense, and he was worth 3.7 fWAR, the same as Andrew McCutchen. In summary, he hits for power, gets on base, and plays adequate defense. If you're not looking for a star, doesn't that check all of the boxes? He'll make $3.55 million in 2018, then has two more years of arbitration before becoming a free agent after the 2020 season. This is totally an upgrade for Arizona. For his career, Souza has 65 home runs, a .236/.325/.426 slash line, 35 stolen bases, and 6.4 fWAR over 399 games. The D-Backs also got minor league righty Taylor Widener from the Yankees, and he could be a quick riser through the minors. Originally drafted in the 12th round out of the University of South Carolina in 2016, Widener's pro debut was just about as good as it gets, as he put up a 0.47 ERA, a 0.63 WHIP, and a 59/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings in short season ball as well as with Class A Charleston that year. Spending 2017 with High Class A Tampa, he continued to thrive, going 7-8 with a 3.39 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 129/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 starts. He struck out 26.4% of those he faced, and will be ready for a AA trial to start the 2018 season. He's a fastball/slider guy, one who has struggled with command in the past but who seems to be making progress on that front. He may not be able to stick as a starter, but his fastball is up to 97 in relief and he could contribute as early as September of this season.

The Yankees get one player in exchange for their pair of prospects, but Brandon Drury fits right into their plans. He has significant experience at second base, third base, and the outfield, and he'll likely see plenty of time at the former two. Starlin Castro was traded to Miami and Chase Headley was traded to San Diego, leaving second and third base up to Ronald Torreyes and Miguel Andujar, respectively. While near-future second baseman Gleyber Torres has the higher ceiling as a prospect, Andujar is generally considered more major league ready, and Drury will help offset the number of at bats the contending Yankees have to commit to an unproven talent. As the season moves forward, though, Drury will likely see less time in the field as Andujar and Torres begin to take on larger roles. Drury himself is a productive hitter, coming off a season where he slashed .267/.317/.447 with 13 home runs in 135 games. However, his numbers were deeply skewed towards his hitter-friendly home park; at home, he slashed .302/.369/.528, while on the road, it was just .236/.266/.373. His power will play well at cozy Yankee Stadium, but he's also not as good as the surface numbers suggest. For Yankee fans, they should think of Kelly Johnson: some power, mediocre on base skills, and a useful glove. For his career, the Oregon native has 31 home runs, a .271/.319/.448 slash line, and 0.6 fWAR over 289 games.

Lastly, the Rays picked up two solid prospects (plus two players to be named later), but the return seems just a bit light to me, depending on the PTBNL's. Souza is a great player, but Corey Dickerson was the player who was DFA'd, and he's cheap and good. Christian Yelich is a better player than Souza, but not by all that much and Yelich's return was monstrous compared to Souza's. Anthony Banda has reached the majors, going 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over eight games (four starts). Banda was very effective in the minors from 2014-2016, but wasn't great at AAA Reno this year, going 8-7 with a 5.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, striking out 116 and walking 51 in 122 innings. Banda is one of those pitchers with all of the skills necessary to succeed, including a full arsenal and good control, but he hasn't been able to put it together yet. Honestly, I find it odd that the Rays brought in yet another upper level starting pitcher, considering their rotation is nearly full with Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jacob Faria, and Matt Andriese, and they have about a million upper level prospects waiting for their chance, including Brent Honeywell, Jose De Leon, Chih-Wei Hu, Ryan Yarbrough, and Yonny Chirinos, among others. Lastly, the Rays rounded out their infield prospect chart by adding Nick Solak to a list that already includes Willy Adames and Christian Arroyo. Solak was taken in the second round of the 2016 draft out of Louisville and has had immediate success in the minors, slashing .305/.393/.441 with 15 home runs over 194 games in his two seasons, reaching AA. He started this season at High Class A Tampa, where he slashed .301/.397/.460 with ten home runs and 13 stolen bases in 100 games, earning a promotion to AA Trenton, where he slashed .286/.344/.429 with a pair of home runs in 30 games. Solak's defense is subpar and he's limited to second base or the outfield, but the bat could be very useful in Tampa. He hits for moderate power but has a knack for getting on base, and he could be a bat-first starting second baseman.

Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi for Prospect Jermaine Palacios

Twins Get: Jake Odorizzi: 10-8, 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 127/61 K/BB, 143.1 innings

Rays Get: minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios: 13 HR, .296/.333/.454, 20 SB, 124 wRC+ at Class A and High Class A

The Twins made a smart trade in acquiring starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, while the trade could work out in the Rays favor as well. Good, proven pitching is hard to come by, and while Odorizzi has only one year left on his contract (at $6.3 million), he has made at least 28 starts in each of the past four seasons, posting ERA's of 4.13, 3.35, 3.69, and 4.14. He missed two short stretches to minor hamstring and back injuries but was otherwise pretty consistent, and he closed out the season with a strong September in which he posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 30/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings. On the down side, his 21% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate were both career worsts, as were his 15.3% soft hit rate and 36.8% hard hit rate. Still, the 27 year old is a classic mid-rotation starter, one who slots in nicely with Ervin Santana (once he recovers from finger surgery around the start of May), Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and some combination of Phil Hughes, Adalberto Mejia, and Stephen Gonsalves. This is the third trade of Odorizzi's career, but after being a part of the Zack Greinke deal of 2010 and the James Shields/Wade Davis/Wil Myers trade of 2012, he gets to headline his own trade this time. For his career, the southern Illinois native is 40-38 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 129 games (126 starts).

The Rays brought back only one prospect, shortstop Jermaine Palacios, but he has a chance to make a difference in for Tampa down the road. After a forgettable 2016 season for Class A Cedar Rapids (1 HR, .222/.276/.287 in 71 games), Palacios repeated the level in 2017 and the results were remarkably different. Over 62 games, the 20 year old cracked eleven home runs and slashed .320/.362/.544 while stealing nine bases with a 46/12 strikeout to walk ratio, earning a promotion to High Class A Fort Myers. In 62 games, he struggled a bit more, slashing .269/.303/.359 with a pair of home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Personally, he looks like a big risk to me, given his aggressive approach and the fact that he hasn't actually proven that he can hit above Class A. The Rays are betting on the tools here, given Palacios' gap power, speed, and defense, but he has to tone down his approach as well as learn to use his speed more effectively on the bases. His ceiling may be Francisco Lindor with less defense and power, but he could also flame out in AA. He turns 22 in July.

Royals, A's Make Four Player Swap

A's Get: Brandon Moss: 22 HR, .207/.279/.428, 2 SB, 84 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

Ryan Buchter: 4-3, 2.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65/26 K/BB, 65.1 IP

$3.25 million

Royals Get: Jesse Hahn: 3-6, 5.30 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 55/27 K/BB, 69.2 IP

Minor leaguer Heath Fillmyer: 11-5, 3.49 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 115/51 K/BB, 149.2 IP at AA

The Royals and A's made a mid-level trade, with no headliners changing teams but plenty of talent on the move. From the A's perspective, this trade adds both outfield and bullpen depth. Brandon Moss, who played in Oakland from 2012-2014, adds that depth in the outfield, having hit at least 19 home runs in each of the past six seasons. Nobody looks like they are guaranteed a starting spot in that outfield, as even Khris Davis could end up DHing a fair amount, and Moss will likely see more time versus right handed pitching, probably at Stephen Piscotty's expense. Moss himself does not carry around the large L/R splits you would expect from a lefty with his high strikeout totals, but he does show more power against right handed pitching, something that has been important in the pitchers' parks he has played in in the past six years and will continue to be important in his second stint in Oakland. This past year, Moss hit a somewhat disappointing .207/.279/.428 with 22 home runs in 118 games, but that power will be valuable in the right match-ups. Moss is owed $7.25 million for 2018 (plus $1 million in the likely case that his $10 million mutual option is declined), but the Royals are sending $3.25 million to offset the contract somewhat, meaning Moss will either cost the A's $5 million for one year (more likely) or $14 million for two years (much less likely unless he has a huge bounce-back season). For his career, the Georgia native has 160 home runs, a .237/.314/.452 slash line, and 8.8 fWAR over 1016 games. Meanwhile, Ryan Buchter is one of the best relievers you've never heard of. Over 71 appearances last season, the lefty put up a 2.89 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 65/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings. This success is sustained from 2016, where he put up similar numbers with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 78/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher, but both Kansas City and Oakland are pitchers' parks (as well as San Diego, where he played previously) and that shouldn't be an issue, especially considering that his 16.5% infield fly ball rate and 26% soft contact rate were both 15th in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2017. He joins Blake Treinen, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Santiago Casilla, and others in what will be one of the more interesting bullpens in baseball. Buchter still has one year of team control and three years of arbitration left, leaving him under control through the 2021 season, though he will turn 31 in February as he didn't crack the major leagues until he was 27. For his career, he is 8-3 with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 144/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.1 innings in 139 appearances.

Interestingly, this leaves the Royals with absolutely nobody to play first base, with third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert looking like the most likely in-house option. However, prospects Ryan O'Hearn and Samir Duenez could make for an interesting dark horse battle if they show up to camp with a chip on their shoulder. Of course, this could also mean what every Royals fan hopes it means; the Royals are clearing space to bring back Eric Hosmer. In terms of this trade, the Royals brought back right hander Jesse Hahn, a Virginia Tech alumnus whose career got off to a promising start in 2014-2015 before fizzling a bit in 2016-2017. From 2014-2015, Hahn went 13-10 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 30 games (28 starts), but since 2016, he is 5-10 with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 23 games (22 starts), including a 5.30 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 2017. In terms of the Kansas City rotation this year, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy can be considered locks, while Jake Junis and Jason Hammel are highly likely to nail down spots as well. That leaves the fifth spot wide open, with Hahn, Nate Karns, Trevor Oaks, and Sam Gaviglio all in the running to grab it. If he can get back to his 2014-2015 form, he should have no trouble grabbing it. Like Buchter, he has one year of team control and three years of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent after the 2021 season. For his career, the Connecticut native is 18-20 with a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 212/103 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games (50 starts). The lone prospect in the deal, right handed pitcher Heath Fillmyer, was drafted in the fifth round of the 2014 draft out of Mercer County Community College in New Jersey, steadily climbing the ladder ever since. He was very impressive with AA Midland this year, going 11-5 with a 3.49 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 115/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 149.2 innings spanning 29 starts. He has good overall stuff, showing a fastball in the low to mid 90's and solid curveball/changeup pair, though he was a bit too hittable with Midland (158 hits) and he needs to further refine his command. Still, the 23 year old is close to the majors and could break into the Kansas City bullpen (or even rotation) with a few adjustments in 2018.