Acquired: RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, RHP Taylor Williams, RHP Austin Adams, RHP Dan Altavilla, 1B Mitch Moreland, C Austin Nola, C Jason Castro, OF Greg Allen, and a PTBNL
Traded: 3B Ty France, OF Josh Naylor, OF Edward Olivares, C Austin Hedges, C Luis Torrens, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Andres Muñoz, RHP Gerardo Reyes, minor leaguers OF Taylor Trammell, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, SS Owen Miller, 3B Hudson Potts, LHP Joey Cantillo, and two PTBNL's* (one PTBNL reported to be minor league RHP Matt Brash)
First off, wow. The Padres picked up an impact starting pitcher, four relievers, two catchers, a power bat, an extra outfielder, and a bonus PTBNL, only one of whom is a rental. And all it cost them was a set of 16 players, half of whom have major league experience. My two immediate takeaways: the Padres overpaid on a lot of these deals, but I commend them for doing so. In baseball, if you're not moving forward, you're going backwards, and they need to move forward if they want to catch the Dodgers and compete with the heavy hitters of the National League for years to come. In that sense, overpaying to get the job done was better than doing nothing at all. Even though 26 (!) players changed hands here, they still hung onto big name young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño, Ryan Weathers, and Cole Wilcox and young bats like Luis Campusano, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, and Hudson Head. I'd call that a win.
Obviously, I'm much more excited to talk about the prospects than the big leaguers, but let's run through the new Padres real quick.
New Bats
The most apparent upgrade here is swapping out Austin Hedges and Luis Torrens for Austin Nola and Jason Castro. Hedges and Torrens were hitting a combined .176/.266/.338 with three home runs in 36 games, while the new Nola/Castro combination comes in slashing .267/.355/.480 with seven home runs in 47 games. That's huge. While swapping out Hedges' steady glove for Nola's might sting a little bit, Nola has also played every other position but pitcher, shortstop, and center field over the last two seasons, giving San Diego a ton of flexibility to move him around the field and potentially give Castro more at bats. Mitch Moreland won't force Eric Hosmer off of first base, but he and his .328/.430/.746 bat will be a huge upgrade over the injured Tommy Pham (.207/.316/.293), Josh Naylor (.278/.316/.417), and Abraham Almonte (.111/.200/.111), who the Padres have been using in that spot. I think this transforms a top-heavy offense led primarily by Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Jake Cronenworth into a much more formidable, more balanced group that can try to keep up with the Dodgers. Lastly, Greg Allen is just a career .239/.295/.344 hitter, but his 94th percentile sprint speed makes him the fastest player on the team and, as a bonus, he grew up in San Diego, attending Hilltop High School in Chula Vista as well as San Diego State University.
New Arms
Clearly, Mike Clevinger is the headliner. Since the start of the 2017 season, he's 39-19 with a 2.97 ERA and a 534/175 strikeout to walk ratio across 470.1 innings – those are ace-caliber numbers. Additionally, the 29 year old is under contract through 2022 and should be affordable at that. Throw him in with Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Luis Patiño, and MacKenzie Gore, and the Padres have a legitimate rotation from top to bottom going forward (plus Zach Davies for 2021). Now, the bullpen. The fearsome trio of Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Craig Stammen combined for a 2.37 ERA over 212.2 innings in 2019, but that's jumped all the way to a 7.56 ERA in 33.1 innings this year. So, the Padres brought in four new relievers to counter that, especially given that Yates likely won't pitch the rest of the regular season. None of the four are necessarily stars, but Trevor Rosenthal, Dan Altavilla, Austin Adams, and Taylor Williams bring in some depth to help get them over the hump while those guys get back on track. Plus aside from Rosenthal, the other three are all under team control through 2023.
The Indians Haul
In trading Mike Clevinger, the Indians picked up easily the most capital from the Padres. Starting with the big leaguers, Cal Quantrill (age 25) has proven serviceable as both a starter and a reliever, and he'll have a chance to take over Clevinger's spot in the Cleveland rotation. The Ontario native fits the Indians mold as a polished strike thrower who can pitch well off his changeup, though the rest of his arsenal is pretty ordinary and he can be hittable when he misses in the zone. Moving forward, he'll probably be a back-end starter for Cleveland, though the Indians always have a host of starting pitchers coming up through their system which could force him out. He holds a 4.79 ERA and a 107/34 K/BB in 120.1 innings for his career. Josh Naylor (age 23) will join his younger brother Bo, who spent 2019 at Class A Lake County. Naylor is a bit younger and comes with more upside than Quantrill, and as a career .253/.315/.405 hitter with nine home runs in 112 games, he already has a little bit of track record under his belt at 23 years old. He controls the strike zone well with a solid 21% career strikeout rate, though while he shows some thump in his bat, it may not be enough to start full time with his first base/corner outfield profile. As a left handed hitter who has also shown the ability to hit same-sided pitching, he increases his base value as a bench bat and could fill in left, right, first base, or DH. At peak, we could see 20-25 home runs a year, but I think he'll be more in the teens. Then there's Austin Hedges (age 28), who is just a career .199/.257/.359 hitter, but it's not like Roberto Perez (.214/.304/.368) or Sandy Leon (.217/.284/.328) are much better. Now, the Indians have three top defensive catchers who can't hit, but while Leon is a free agent after the season, Hedges and Perez are both under contract through 2022. Those two should bridge the time until Bo Naylor works his way up.
Now onto the minor leaguers, which I prefer to talk about anyways. I'm extremely excited to see Joey Cantillo (age 20) in the Indians system, where he could really take off. He dominated A ball to the tune of a 2.26 ERA and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings in 2019, showing improved stuff across the board as he filled out his 6'4" frame. The stuff is decent, with a fastball around 90, a good changeup, and a huge downer curveball with tremendous depth but not a ton of velocity, but everything plays up because he gets great deception in his delivery and locates his pitches extremely well. That's exactly the kind of pitcher the Indians tend to do really well with, and I could really see him coming out a legitimate impact pitcher. Keep an eye on this one. Moving on, Owen Miller (age 23) is a sleeper type who has slashed .307/.367/.441 with 17 home runs over 205 games so far in his minor league career. He has exceptional natural feel to hit that helped him race from Illinois State to AA in less than a year, and while he doesn't hit for a ton of power, his ability to find the barrel consistently makes that moderate power up significantly. With Francisco Lindor looking like he'll be leaving Cleveland and no long term solution at second base, the middle infield is wide open and I could see Miller becoming a full time starter either at second base or shortstop in the near future. Coming up behind him is Gabriel Arias (age 20), who broke out with a .302/.339/.470 line and 17 home runs in High A in 2019. He has always been talented and the big breakout just confirms what evaluators already knew. Arias is an explosive hitter from the right side that put up those gaudy numbers against much older competition, but at this point, he's also very aggressive and will need to tone down his approach as he matures. Given his age, that's not overly concerning. What he did as a teenager in High A was impressive enough, and he's a great defender that could become Cleveland's shortstop of the future if he continues to progress. The youth and the glove give his plate discipline plenty of slack to catch up.
New Mariners
The most established player heading to the other end of I-5 is Ty France (age 26), a San Diego State product who was off to a hot .309/.377/.491 start over 20 games in 2020. He's not a huge guy at 5'11", but he has great feel for the barrel that enables him to make consistent hard contact and tap some power when he gets into one. Even though he's just 89 games into his MLB career, he's already appeared at first base, second base, third base, and even pitcher, bringing plenty of versatility to fill in in multiple roles or even sneak into a starting spot if Evan White, Shed Long, or Kyle Seager gets hurt. There's not much coming up through the system that would seem to threaten his playing time, either, and he's under team control for a long time. Definitely a nice depth add. Luis Torrens (age 24) hasn't made a ton of noise just yet, slashing .176/.256/.223 over 70 career games, but with Austin Nola leaving town, he'll have plenty of opportunity to try. Torrens has a classic backup catcher profile, with very strong plate discipline helping him tap some moderate power from the right side. At 24 years old, I'm not sure how much more he'll grow into, but he's been steadily hitting for more impact in the minors and he has a chance to hit for just enough in the majors to justify regular playing time, especially with his solid glove. He'll likely help bridge the gap until Cal Raleigh is ready. Andres Muñoz (age 21) is a really interesting one. The 6'2", 240 pound righty has a triple digit fastball that has touched as high as 104, and while his command is far from pinpoint, he's not wild either and is generally around the zone. He drops in a good, vertical slider, and the two pitches enabled him to post a 3.91 ERA and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings in 2019 at just 20 years old, though he's sitting out 2020 with Tommy John surgery. Once he comes back, Muñoz just needs to sharpen his command a little bit to become a legitimate late inning arm. Given his age, that's certainly possible, making him a really interesting one to watch in the Mariners' bullpen. Lastly, the one true prospect in this deal was Taylor Trammell (age 22), the well-known prospect who was previously involved in the Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig deal of 2019. His stock faded a bit with a so-so 2019 season in AA (.234/.340/.349, 10 HR), but there's still a lot to like in this buy-low prospect. He has really nice raw power that he taps naturally, and a patient approach has enabled him to handle advanced pitching throughout his career. Throw in above average speed, and he can really impact the game in a lot of ways. The 2019 season showed that he still has work to do in proving he can generate impact against top level pitching, though he was just 21 at the time. The Mariners are betting that additional development time will prove that to just be a blip on the radar, and that his work ethic, athleticism, and patient approach will come together for an all-around contributor at the major league level. Either way, we should see him in Seattle by 2021 at the latest.
Two New Red Sox Bats
In return for power bat Mitch Moreland, the Red Sox are bringing on two new minor league bats in Hudson Potts (age 21) and Jeisson Rosario (age 20). Potts is a power bat that crushed 56 home runs, 86 doubles, and six triples in 364 minor league games from 2017-2019. The Padres loved his power and pushed him aggressively, sending him to full season ball at 18 years old in 2017 and to High A and even AA as a 19 year old in 2018. He spent his age-20 season at AA again in 2019 and slashed .227/.290/.406 with 16 home runs in 107 games, a mixed bag of numbers given his age. The Red Sox look at how young he has been relative to his competition and think his plate discipline with a bit of acclimation, and while his power isn't quite of the standard of Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas, he's a better defender at third base who could stick there. However, with the presence of Rafael Devers in addition to Dalbec and Casas, he'll really have to earn that playing time. Rosario, meanwhile, hit just .242/.372/.314 over 120 games at High A last year, but he was also just 19 years old. The first thing that jumps off the page with Rosario is his patience, walking in 16.6% of his plate appearances last year despite his youth. He consistently works counts to hunt his pitch, though to this point, he hasn't hit for much impact with just 57 extra base hits over 289 games for his career. His approach is very contact-oriented, but he's very athletic and packs some lean strength into his 6'1" frame, so the Red Sox could tinker with his approach to tap some more power. At just 20 years old, he has plenty of time to experiment with different approaches to hitting, and his advanced plate discipline helps in that regard as well. He's a strong defender that should stick in center field, which also buys his bat more slack, so he's a high probability big leaguer in some capacity. If he can learn to generate more impact at the plate, he has a chance to start as a guy with 10-15 home runs a year and strong on-base percentages, though without significant gains in his power output, he's probably more of a fourth outfielder.
The Rest
I'll start with Edward Olivares (age 24) here. He's a huge get for the Royals after signing Trevor Rosenthal to a minor league contract, bringing a multitude of ways to impact the game. He hit .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 127 games in AA last year, and he's gotten his feet wet a bit in 13 games with the Padres (albeit at .176/.222/.294). There's no one carrying tool to Olivares' game, but he brings loose, easy power from a rangy 6'2" frame in addition to good feel for the barrel and nice speed as well. His aggressive approach will limit his on-base percentages in the majors, though his game fits well in that big Kansas City outfield and he has a chance to get lots of playing time pretty quickly. His ability to handle center field could bump Whit Merrifield to second base and Nicky Lopez down to the bench, and he also provides a controllable option to gradually take over for Alex Gordon slowly approaches retirement. Though he's not quite as fast, he should hit for more impact than Nick Heath, and with guys like Khalil Lee, Kyle Isbel, and Brewer Hicklen also working their way up, the future of the Royals outfield looks to be in a much more solid place. I don't necessarily see Olivares turning into a star, but he could be a 10-15 home run bat whose speed and defense helps him hold down regular playing time. Moving back to the West Coast, the Angels are picking up a power bullpen arm in Gerardo Reyes (age 27) in exchange for Jason Castro. Already 27, he's yet to do much at the major league level with a 7.62 ERA and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings last year, but the stuff is there for him to succeed. His fastball sits in the upper 90's and it isn't straight, either, with his lower arm angle putting great running and sinking action on it. He throws a short, tight slider that sneaks below bats and induces plenty of whiffs. He does a good job of filling up the strike zone but he struggles to hit individual spots, and going forward his success will likely hinge on that command. If he can tunnel his fastball and slider off each other, he has serious late inning potential. The Angels will try to get him there, but at 27 years old, he's not the youngest kid out there. And lastly, Matt Brash (age 22) isn't officially a Mariner just yet, but he's reported to be the player to be named later in the Taylor Williams deal. He was the Padres' fourth round pick out of Niagara University in 2019, then struck out eight over 5.1 innings (one earned run) in his pro debut that year. He looks like a reliever to the naked eye, showing a low 90's fastball that can creep up to 95 to go with a good changeup and a pair of decent breaking balls, all coming from a jerky delivery. However, Brash's pitch metrics are supposedly very good, and he has consistently performed at a high level everywhere he's gone. Additionally, he was showing a smoother delivery in 2020 in spring training, and he looks much more like a starting pitcher at this point. Brash probably profiles as a back-end starter, depending on the development of his offspeed stuff.
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