Juan Soto and the end of an era in Washington

By Zack Silverman

On Tuesday, August 2nd, Mike Rizzo and Mark Lerner dealt Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres for CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, Jarlin Susana, and Luke Voit, emphatically closing the book on the great 2010's Washington Nationals dynasty. It comes two and a half seasons before Soto is set to hit free agency, on the heels of a dramatic fall from grace for the franchise, and ahead of a likely sale of the team to new ownership. Barring a return via free agency in the 2024-2025 offseason, Juan Soto will now play the vast majority of what could be an inner-circle Hall of Fame career elsewhere, and in return, the Nationals brought in a massive haul of young players. This is a trade that will be remembered not for years, but for decades, and will forever be a defining moment in Washington Nationals history.

With Juan Soto out, the Nationals teams of the 2010's that resulted in a 2019 World Series championship are virtually all gone. Bryce Harper is in Philadelphia, Max Scherzer is in New York, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner are in Los Angeles, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, and Howie Kendrick have retired, and Stephen Strasburg may never be the same pitcher he once was. Aside from Strasburg, the longest tenured players on the Nationals are Joe Ross (2015), Erick Fedde (2017), Adrian Sanchez (2017), and Victor Robles (2017) – every other player on the team joined in 2019 or later for their current stint. Those are a lot of words to say this trade ends a seismic shift in who the Washington Nationals are as a franchise, to the point where the players on the field represent a fundamentally different ball club. Loyalty means rooting for the name on the front of the jersey rather than the back, but it is a lot to take in regardless. Fans from Prince George's County down to the Hampton Roads and out to the Shenandoah have no choice but to start all over again and learn to fall in love with a new brand of Washington Nationals baseball.

You will never, ever replace a once-in-a-generation player like Juan Soto, which is why you don't see them dealt. All we can do is speculate, but with the impending sale of the team to new ownership, you have to imagine the most prominent suitors had a heavy hand in everything leading up to the trade. One line of thought would be that new ownership wanted to get as close to a clean financial slate as possible, which would mean not only trading Soto but getting rid of Patrick Corbin as well. Another would be that regardless of their intentions with Soto, they would at least want a shot to extend him, whether a deal ended up getting done or not. That's why you buy a sports franchise, right? But apparently, the opposite may have been the case – that new ownership wanted to avoid the massive PR hit that would come with not getting a deal done, and therefore being forced to trade one of the greatest players on the planet as one of their very first moves. Unfortunately, there is not much in this world billionaires care about more than PR, and if they can pin the deal on the Lerner family and throw their hands up to say "I would have extended him!" to save a little face, then that's where we are. So if that new ownership group says anything about Juan Soto when they do take over, don't let them off the hook so easily.

So that is quite enough about players who are no longer Nationals. In return, the Nationals picked up two major league ready players under the age of 24, two young outfielders that can't buy their own drinks yet, a teenage lottery ticket, and a big league first baseman to ensure Washington can put together at least something resembling a major league lineup until the younger guys are ready. It's a massive jolt to a farm system that has lagged way behind much of the rest of the league, giving them a top ten that even loaded farm systems would envy. The rest of the farm system? Well that's a story we'll get to later, but this is a good start.

We'll start with James Wood, in my opinion easily the best player coming back to Washington. Wood is actually a DMV native, hailing from the far northern suburb of Olney in Montgomery County, Maryland. He played his high school ball at the IMG Academy in Florida, where he teamed up with 2022 Nationals first round pick Elijah Green in the most fearsome outfield in the country. He generated top ten buzz early in the 2021 draft cycle, but struggled during his senior year and fell to the Padres in the second round, where he signed for a massive bonus. However, concerns about his hit tool turned out to be premature, as he has done nothing but rip up low minors pitching since signing. Between the Padres' ACL team and Low A Elsinore, he's slashing .336/.447/.556 with 13 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a very solid 81/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games, including a .337/.453/.601 line at Low A. Wood shows off massive power from the left side, a product of his equally massive 6'7", 240 pound frame and a quick, simple swing. He has learned that he does not need to do too much to tap that power, and his disciplined approach has translated much better than expected to professional pitching. Combine that bat with surprising athleticism given his massive size, which could help him stick in center field, and you have a potential superstar in the making. Wood only turns 20 in September and has just fifty games of full season ball under his belt, so he has a very long way to go, but if anybody is going to lessen the sting of losing Juan Soto ten years down the line, it will probably be him.

Next up is the other outfielder in the deal, Robert Hassell. Hassell played his high school ball at Independence High School in the southern suburbs of Nashville, earning a first round selection in 2020 at the eighth overall pick. After hitting .302/.393/.470 in his first pro season, he has spent the entire 2022 season at High A Fort Wayne and was slashing .299/.379/.467 with ten home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 66/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at the time of the trade. He is an extremely professional hitter that makes a ton of hard, line drive contact while taking his walks to post high on-base percentages. While he's definitely a hit-over-power bat, he does have some pop and hits a high enough volume of hard hit balls to run into his fair share of home runs. The exit velocities are a bit pedestrian for what you'd look for in a future superstar, but if he can post close to .400 on-base percentages at the MLB level like he's capable, it may not matter. I'd put the ultimate projection around 15-20 home runs a year. In addition to the bat, he's a very solid defender that will have a chance to try to stick in center field, just like Wood, and it will be interesting to see the two of them battle with Jeremy De La Rosa, Elijah Green, and Cristhian Vaquero to see who gets that position long term (though Green and Vaquero are significantly faster). The whole package is somewhat similar to a left handed version of where Victor Robles stood as a prospect five years ago, albeit with a bit less speed and defense. I will let you all decide whether that is a good thing or a bad thing.

CJ Abrams will be the first young player in this deal to play for the Nationals. The sixth overall pick of the 2019 draft out of Blessed Trinity High School in the Atlanta area, Abrams flew through the minors and has split 2022 between AAA El Paso and the Padres, hitting .314/.364/.507 in 30 games for the former and .232/.285/.320 in 46 games for the latter. Upon acquiring him, the Nationals immediately sent him down to AAA Rochester, but the expectation is that he'll be back up well before the end of the season. Abrams will be 21 for the remainder of the season, so there's no rush. He's an exceptional athlete that stands out most for his plus-plus speed, which helps him play a very strong shortstop that should only continue to get better with more seasoning. As you might expect given that he reached the majors well before his 22nd birthday, Abrams took to pro pitching very smoothly and has never struggled as he's moved up the latter, with very strong feel for the barrel that has helped him do damage at every stop. He continued to make a ton of contact in his 46 game stint with the Padres, though he's rarely walked throughout his career simply because he doesn't let counts get too deep. There is some wiry strength in his 6'2" frame, but ultimately I don't expect him to top out at more than 10-15 home runs a year. Down at AAA and especially this coming offseason, the Nationals will likely design his conditioning program to help him finish filling out that frame so that he can produce a little more impact beyond singles and line drives in the gap. At his ceiling, he could be a similar all-around player to a left handed Trea Turner, albeit with significantly less power. If not, he has a good shot to end up a solid, long term answer for the Nationals at shortstop that can get on base, steal a ton of bases, and hit plenty of doubles and triples.

MacKenzie Gore is probably the most famous name in this trade, as he has a long history on prospect lists. Gore was the third overall pick in the 2017 draft out of Whiteville High School in rural southeastern North Carolina, giving the Nationals a top ten pick from the 2017, 2019, and 2020 drafts in this trade. He shot to stardom in the Padres system and in 2019, where he posted a 1.69 ERA and a 135/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings between High A and AA. At that time he was considered one of the top prospects in baseball, but the road has been bumpier since then. The pandemic interrupted his ascent and blister issues that nagged him early in his career returned in 2021, while his mechanics began to lose consistency as well. He only threw 50.1 innings last year and fell considerably from his 2019 status, but 2022 has been better. He made his MLB debut in April and held a 1.50 ERA and a 57/17 strikeout to walk ratio through early June, but has struggled mightily since then and went down with elbow soreness shortly before the deadline. That elbow issue could explain why his numbers suddenly took a turn, but the Nationals front office doesn't seem too concerned that this will be a major issue going forward. At his best, Gore has a true ace-caliber four pitch mix. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets up to around 98, while his upper 80's slider is a power sweeper that misses a ton of bats, his upper 70's curveball gives a deeper, sweeping look, and his changeup keeps hitters off balance. Overall, it's a very traditional profile, which Mike Rizzo loves. Once he gets back on the mound, there's a lot of directions he could go. Washington will hope to get him consistent innings free of injury-related distractions, in which case he could become a legitimate #2 starter. Or he could go down the path of Luis Severino, showing flashes of dominance while also spending significant amounts of time on injured lists. Then of course, there's always the middle ground where his stuff flattens out a little bit with wear and tear and he winds up a solid #4 starter that gives you a reliable arm but doesn't necessarily come to dominate.

Then of course we have Jarlin Susana, the teenage mystery man that the Padres apparently only included after the Nationals added Josh Bell to the deal. Signed for $1.7 million out of the Dominican Republic in January, he has spent the season in rookie ball and has a 2.45 ERA and a 44/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings. Susana is a huge, 6'6" righty that is already physically developed, bringing in ridiculous arm strength. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has touched as high as 102, coming in with steep downhill plane that from a high slot. He rips off a vicious slider that can creep up over 90, while his curveball and changeup are a bit less consistent. Both breaking balls, especially the curve, could use to add a little more bite but he has time to figure that out. A big guy that throws with some effort, he does a good job of controlling the strike zone given his age and explosive stuff, and he has a chance to work his way up as a potential mid-rotation starter. However, he is a long, long way away from the majors and will need considerable development to stick in the rotation.

Lastly, the lone established major leaguer in the deal is Luke Voit. Eric Hosmer was originally slated to come to DC, but he used his no trade clause to stay out of the cellar of the National League East and will instead head to Boston. Voit rose to fame as the Yankees' power hitting first baseman from 2018-2020, though his production has fallen off a bit over the past couple of seasons and in 2022 he's slashing .225/.317/.416 with 13 home runs in 82 games. Those aren't numbers a playoff team can afford from a first baseman in a starting role, but he may just be the best hitter in a decimated Nationals lineup that will struggle to put up runs for the rest of the season. In that sense, he's really a replacement for Josh Bell just so the team is at least somewhat close to watchable. He's under team control through the 2024 season, which means the Nationals could shop him again at any point until then and look to bring back some prospect talent, or they could find a way to get him back to his 2018-2020 form and keep him around as a potential long term piece in a best case scenario. The difference between now and then is that he's seeing more offspeed stuff and has been more prone to chasing pitches out of the zone or getting out in front and getting under them, so working on handling that offspeed stuff should be an area of emphasis to reclaim his former glory.

So like I mentioned, I see this as a light return for Soto, but my bigger issue lies in player development. The Nationals are very, very traditional in their talent evaluation and player development, which puts them way behind the times and more than anything is why the system plummeted to the worst in baseball before the 2021 trade deadline. They've made incremental improvements lately, including increasing the size of their player development staff and finally adding Hawkeye tracking technology to their stadiums, but to this point it has not born fruit. The players in this deal, aside from James Wood, have extremely traditional profiles with easily identifiable strengths and weaknesses. That means if anything, they're likely overvalued in the market, not undervalued. Don't get me wrong, I think most of these kids even aside from Wood will turn into very good ballplayers, but I would have liked to have seen Mike Rizzo get more creative. For example, the Yankees just brought back Clayton Beeter for Joey Gallo despite poor surface numbers, but his wicked raw stuff and overall unique traits as a pitcher make him a very intriguing, potentially undervalued arm. Rizzo would never buy low on hidden gems like that, rather opting for the traditional profiles like I explained above.

I saw reports about the Nationals having a top eight or top five farm system right now, and unfortunately I wholly disagree. The top of the system is now packed, which is awesome. In addition to the names above, guys like Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Luis Garcia are ready to form a longtime core at the major league level, while Rizzo has stockpiled a very interesting group of young bats in the low minors headlined by Elijah Green, Jeremy De La Rosa, Brady House, Sammy Infante, TJ White, Cristhian Vaquero, Roismar Quintana, and Brenner Cox. But very little of that offensive talent has worked its way to the upper minors just yet, and the pitching depth is just non-existent in a system where Rizzo still looks for traditional, big conference performers with refined, if ordinary, arsenals. He's not uncovering hidden gems in the middle rounds, where the team often selects Jacob Young's with traditional profiles rather than Nick Nastrini's that just need you to get a little creative. So as great as this system may look on a top twenty prospects list, the fundamental issues that have led to much of that improvement coming inorganically are still very much there and will limit the next competitive window if nothing changes.

I guess I ended this way-too-long article with some doom and gloom, and the truth is that I'm not happy with the direction of this team under Mike Rizzo. But there is certainly room for optimism. The Nationals now have a real farm system for the first time in years. That group of young hitters I mentioned a paragraph above – I'm actually very interested in them and I think it's a legitimate group. Young hitters are often the best place to invest. I also mentioned that the team finally seems to be getting serious about player development. I wasn't happy with their draft class this year outside of the first pick, Elijah Green, but I did love that Green pick. A future lineup featuring three of Green, Wood, Hassell, De La Rosa, Vaquero, Quintana, and Daylen Lile in the outfield sounds great to me. They've got Ruiz behind the plate and Israel Pineda looks like a viable backup option long term. Around the infield, names like Abrams, Garcia, House, Infante, and Jake Alu look at least moderately interesting if not quite as exciting as the outfield group. And I haven't mentioned the pitchers by name, but between Gray, Gore, Susana, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, Rodney Theophile, Mitchell Parker, and Jackson Rutledge, we should find at least a couple long term starting pitchers and the bullpen group of Matt Cronin, Zach Brzykcy, Gerardo Carrillo, and Jose Ferrer should produce at least one long term piece in addition to whoever falls out of the rotation. It's going to take a long time, perhaps until around the middle of the decade, but at least the Soto band-aid is now off and things can start to move full steam ahead.

2020 Draft Review: San Diego Padres

1-8: OF Robert Hassell III, Independence HS (TN)
CBA-34: RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS (TX)
2-45: OF Owen Caissie, Notre Dame HS (ON)
3-80: RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia
4-109: RHP Levi Thomas, Troy
5-139: LHP Jagger Haynes, West Columbus HS (NC)

A year ago, the Padres became the first team ever to hand out a $3 million signing bonus in the third round, drawing high school outfielder Hudson Head away from an Oklahoma commitment with first round money. This year, they broke their own record by giving Cole Wilcox $3.3 million in the same round, and that defined their draft class even more so than first rounder Robert Hassell. That meant htey had to go under slot for each of their other five picks, and they did so in typical Padres fashion by four high schoolers. Did it work out for them? In order to figure that out, I'd pretend Wilcox was the competitive balance pick and "bump" Justin Lange and Owen Caissie down a round, making Lange the "second round" pick and Caissie the "third round" pick. In that case, I think they came away with a solid class, though it comes with a lot of risk. Robert Hassell is about as low risk as it gets for a high schooler but it's still an under slot high schooler in the top ten. Lange and Caissie are extreme boom/bust types even by high school standards, as is fifth rounder and deep sleeper Jagger Haynes. Wilcox is still kind of boom/bust for a college pitcher, especially given his massive signing bonus, leaving Levi Thomas as the only true "safe bet" type in the fourth round. It's an interesting class for sure, with a ton of upside if things work out.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-8: OF Robert Hassell III, Independence HS, TN (my rank: 17)
As you can tell by my ranking, there are quite a few players I would have taken ahead of Hassell at this point in the draft, but that's more an endorsement of the immense talent in this class than it is an indictment of Hassell's talent. It also helps that the Padres got him significantly under slot. Coming out of the Nashville area, he has the best hit tool in the prep class, showing the ability to make hard contact against even the best pitching he faced. He can be a little bit streaky at times, but for the most part, he has simply dominated his competition. Hassell brings an extremely professional approach to the plate, easily identifying fastballs from breaking balls and balls from strikes, and his clean, smooth left handed swing enables him to execute hard contact all over the field. He's hit over power and will likely always be that way, as he's pretty skinny at 6'2" and doesn't look like he'll be able to add a ton of bulk. There were times over the summer when he tried to tap into more power, but that often came at the expense of his prodigious hit tool, and scouts believe he'll be best off allowing his home runs to come naturally. I think there is a chance he could hit 20+ home runs a year in the majors at his ceiling, but I think he's more likely to fall in the 10-20 range and derive his value from very high on-base percentages. He's a good runner who makes all the plays in the outfield, and he'll likely end up either a decent/playable center fielder or an above average right fielder. With an August birthday, he's a bit old for the class, but the Padres don't seem to mind that. He's been compared to Mariners star prospect Jarred Kelenic, who had a very similar profile out of high school and who was also old for his class, though Kelenic has a bit more power and Hassell is a bit faster. The top recruit in another loaded Vanderbilt class, he instead signed with the Padres for $4.3 million, which was about $880,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

CBA-34: RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS, TX (my rank: 68)
There's something I have to get out of the way first, and it's going to pain some Spanish speaking or Spanish-familiar Padres fans out in San Diego, but it's not pronounced "yawn-oh" like it's supposed to be. Llano, Texas is instead said like "LAN-oh," rhyming with "piano." Sorry about that. Anyways, Justin Lange is all about projection. He's a 6'4" right hander from the small town of Llano in the heart of Texas, and most importantly, he can touch 100 miles per hour. A year ago, he was sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and looked like he needed to go to school to fill out, but his velocity has shot up since then and he was sitting comfortably in the mid to upper 90's this spring. And it's not as if he suddenly started throwing as hard as he could – the velocity comes very easily, as his loose arm cranks it up with a pretty natural motion. Now, how well he repeats that delivery is another question. I'm going to repeat the language I used in his pre-draft profile in saying that he's really just "flinging" the ball. His arm works extremely naturally at these high speeds, but in the end, he's really just letting it all fly and flinging the baseball in the general direction of the plate. He has well below average command at this point, and the Padres will have their work cut out for them in streamlining his delivery and getting his arm moving in the same, repeatable slot every pitch. They'll also have to help develop his secondaries, as his slider can flash solid average but is typically more of a fringy pitch, and it's been known to miss the zone by feet rather than inches. There's a changeup as well, but it's also well below average. Right now, the Padres are buying his three big plusses: size, velocity, and naturally loose arm. Everything else will have to be crafted, and that includes refining his delivery, bringing some depth out of his slider, and building up his changeup. It's a really interesting upside play that also carries extreme risk. Lange signed away from his Dallas Baptist commitment for $2 million, which was about $150,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.

2-45: OF Owen Caissie, Notre Dame HS, ON (my rank: 123)
The third straight high schooler to start off this draft, Owen Caissie probably has more in common with Justin Lange than he does with fellow prep outfielder Robert Hassell. Hailing from the Toronto area, he was also the first Canadian selected this year. He's a big dude at 6'4", with plenty of projection in his sturdy frame that could have him looking like a beast in a few years. He channels his strength into big raw power that plays as above average right now, but he should grow into true plus power pretty easily given the projection in his frame. On the flip side, though, he hasn't been as consistent with his hit tool, showing a significant amount of swing and miss in his game. Pessimists see the high bust-risk associated with strikeout-prone prep hitters and might be turned off by Caissie. However, optimists see a swing that doesn't put the barrel in the zone for very long and think some simple mechanical tweaks could get him up to an average or better hit tool. Given that he's also young for the class, just turning 18 a few days before I released this article here in July, he has more time to iron out that tool and it has been shown that age matters for high schoolers. An above average runner with a plus arm, he will probably slow down a little bit as he matures, and profiles as an above average right fielder down the line. There is extremely high risk associated with this pick, but the reward is very high as well and Caissie could develop into a 30 home run bat. Committed to Michigan, he instead signed with the Padres for $1.2 million, which was about $450,000 below slot.

3-80: RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (my rank: 22)
The Padres saved about $1.48 million in bonus pool space by going under slot in each of the first three rounds, and that enabled them to give Cole Wilcox $3.3 million, which was halfway between the slot values at picks #19 and #20, more than quadruple his own slot value, and just a million shy of what they gave Robert Hassell at eighth overall. Wilcox was a big name coming out of Heritage High School in northwestern Georgia in 2018 and could have easily gone in the first round if signable, but he was dead set on attending Georgia for school. Two years later, his stock was in a very similar place in the mid to late first round, but signability was again a factor and that knocked him down to the third round. The Padres are ecstatic to pick him up after he showed huge statistical progress from his freshman year (4.07 ERA, 64/38 K/BB in 59.2 IP) to his draft-eligible sophomore year (1.57 ERA, 32/2 K/BB in 23 IP), and while he didn't have to go up against the SEC this year, he did put up seven shutout innings with eleven strikeouts and no walks against a solid Georgia Tech lineup on February 29th.  He's a really big 6'5" right hander who is still growing into his body a bit, and he comes with equally big stuff. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can reach as high as 98 with some run and sink, and he adds in two offspeed pitches in a slider and a changeup. The slider can be inconsistent, but it's usually at least average at worst and can flash plus when he really snaps it down. The changeup, meanwhile, is more consistently above average and gets great sink, and together he has three pitches that have a good chance to be true plus. In the past, he's had a hard time repeating his delivery consistently and that impacted his ability to throw strikes. He showed some modest improvement in that regard in 2020, and while his control (ability to throw strikes in general) is still well ahead of his command (ability to hit spots within the zone), he's better than he used to be, when he showed neither. As Wilcox continues to grow into his huge frame, I think his youth is a big positive in his profile, as his July birthday makes him old for a sophomore but younger than most of the juniors he went up against in the draft process. With three great pitches and improving command, Wilcox has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher for the Padres down the line, or a high level reliever if he never gets that command fully figured out. The $3.3 million signing bonus was more than $2.5 million above slot value in the third round but the Padres made it work. Pre-draft profile here.

4-109: RHP Levi Thomas, Troy (unranked)
Here is an interesting money saver. Levi Thomas was part of the same Cullman High School rotation and graduating class as 2017 Reds third rounder Jacob Heatherly, but he headed across Alabama to attend Troy for school. After a strong freshman season (1.96 ERA, 56/16 K/BB) and a solid sophomore year (4.24 ERA, 87/31 K/BB), he broke out with a huge start to his junior campaign with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. He doesn't have the world's loudest stuff, but he absolutely demolished the Northern Kentucky and Louisiana Tech lineups (11 shutout innings, 25 K's, 3 baserunners) and continued to hold his own against #1 Florida and a stronger Michigan State lineup (12 IP, 1 ER, 17 K's) nonetheless. He's a dogged competitor that will do anything to get you out, something Pitching Ninja captured in this Twitter thread. Stuff-wise, his fastball sits in the low 90's but gets great spin rates that enable it to play much faster than its velocity, and he adds a good slider that can flash above average at times. He shows solid average command, but his willingness to attack the zone and challenge hitters makes that aspect of his game play up as well. On the shorter side at 5'11", Thomas will need to prove he's durable enough to start, and he'll also have to work on improving a fringy changeup. If he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball and slider could tick up and his mentality would fit great. Given how deep this system is, I think there is more of a chance of that happening than not and I'm very interested to see what he could do in that role. Thomas' $80,000 signing bonus was $453,000 below slot.

5-139: LHP Jagger Haynes, West Columbus HS, NC (unranked)
The Padres have some history with prep lefties from Columbus County in rural southeastern North Carolina – MacKenzie Gore grew up in Whiteville, just twenty minutes down the road from where Haynes went to high school in Cerro Gordo. He's a very projectable 6'3" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds in a good breaking ball from an athletic, loose delivery. Right now, there are a lot of moving parts with long arm action that will need to be cleaned up a bit, but they key is the looseness and the Padres don't think they'll have a problem with that. He adds a solid breaking ball and a relatively advanced changeup for a high school pitcher, and with a September birthday, he was the youngest pitcher selected in the entire draft. There are a lot of rough edges to refine here, but San Diego is extremely high on this kid and they're envisioning an impact starting pitcher down the line. He's a nice sleeper to watch here at the end of the draft. Committed to UNC, Haynes instead signed for $300,000, which was $98,000 below slot.

Undrafted: C Adam Kerner, San Diego (unranked)
The Padres spent all six picks on players east of the Rocky Mountains, but in the undrafted free agent market, they came back home and signed Adam Kerner out of the University of San Diego. A product of Oaks Christian High School up in Thousand Oaks, he is a glove-first catcher who will definitely stick. A good athlete, he moves really well back there and shows a plus arm, giving him a very high baseline of value in a world where good catchers are scarce. He's an okay hitter who has slashed .305/.379/.472 with ten home runs and a 72/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 career games for the Toreros, showing a solid average hit tool and a little bit of sneaky power, though he doesn't draw a lot of walks. It's probably a little bit light to start, even with his glove, but it's a really nice backup profile, especially in the UDFA market.

Undrafted: RHP Chase Walter, Western Carolina (unranked)
Walter is an absolute mountain of a man, standing at a listed 6'7" and 260 pounds. The Atlanta-area native spent his college career in the starting rotation for Western Carolina, where he has missed a ton of bats (212 K's in 195.1 IP) but also missed the strike zone just as frequently (116 walks in same span). For that reason, he probably fits better in the bullpen in pro ball, especially in a deep Padres system, but he'll still be a project. Walter sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 96 as a starter, adding in a hard slider that misses plenty of bats. Bumping him to the bullpen could help him focus on improving his command a bit more and also see that fastball tick up to the mid 90's more consistently, which plays well below average right now. Even getting up to fringe-average could make him a very useful bullpen arm.

2020 Draft Profile: Robert Hassell

OF Robert Hassell, Independence HS [TN]
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 8/15/2001.  B/T: L/L
Commitment: Vanderbilt

Hassell, like fellow Vanderbilt outfield recruit Pete Crow-Armstrong, is one of the more famous names in this prep class. He has put on quite a few shows on the summer showcase circuit and could be the best hitter to come out of the Nashville area since Mookie Betts. Often comped to Jarred Kelenic, who is now tearing it up in the Mariners' system, Hassell isn't quite the hitter Kelenic was in high school but has a lot of similarities in his profile with a hit-over-power approach, a strong showcase track record, and an early birthday that makes him old for the class.

Hassell can hit. He produced hard contact as consistently as anybody on the showcase circuit, and there were stretches of time where you just couldn't get him out. When he's on and staying within himself as a hitter, not even the best prep pitching could find holes in his swing, and Hasssell would drop line drives from gap to gap like it was nothing. That contact ability comes from a very quick, very smooth, professional-looking left handed swing. He gets the barrel into the zone quickly and stays through the ball with great extension, enabling him to catch up to velocity and make adjustments on offspeed pitches. That gives him a great chance to post high on-base percentages in pro ball, and while Kelenic's offensive profile was slightly more robust than Hassell's, Kelenic's huge success in pro ball certainly doesn't hurt projections for a similar hitter in Hassell. Defensively, he has a solid profile that will enable him to add value in the outfield. While he's not a clear-cut center fielder like Crow-Armstrong, he's one of the better defensive outfielders in the class with good speed, developing range, and a strong arm. It will take a bit more refinement if he wants to stick there, but he profiles as above average in right field and certainly so in left field, taking a little bit of pressure off the bat.

The one question in Hassell's profile surrounds his power. He's not a small guy at a listed 6'2" and 195 pounds, but the contact he makes is much more consistently "hard" than truly "explosive." That profiles great for doubles and triples down the road, especially with his above average speed, but when your top exit velocities are in the low 90's (Austin Hendrick, meanwhile, gets well into triple digits), that first round microscope focuses in stronger. When he has tried to tap into more power, it has at times come at the expense of his prodigious hit tool, which we would rather not mess with. The hit tool is strong enough that he could happily produce on-base percentages near .400 while topping out in the teens for home runs, but as I said, that first round microscope is a strong one. With an August birthday, he's also a bit older than most of the other names in this high school class (though still two months younger than Hendrick, our elder statesman), which is a small but relevant thing.

Right now, Hassell projects pretty clearly in the first round, most likely somewhere in the front half due to his strong track record of hitting. The hit tool is certainly for real and that, plus his athletic frame, gives some hope that he can tap into some power, and the team that takes him in the top 10-15 picks will be the one that believes in that power potential. As for me, I wouldn't say more power isn't possible, but I'd peg him more as a 15 home run guy than as a 25 homer guy. Overall, with probably the best hit tool in the high school class, his outlook remains very favorable.

Summer footage