Showing posts with label Riley Kelly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Riley Kelly. Show all posts

Thursday, November 27, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies played their bonus pool fairly straight up this year, handing fourth overall pick Ethan Holliday the largest bonus of any player in the 2025 draft then rarely deviating by more than $100,000 or so away from the slot value of any given pick. In an era where players transfer schools at will and a mid-major school in the Midwest might have a roster full of players from California, Florida, New England, and everywhere in between, it seems many of Colorado's picks were players who not only stayed local for school, but stuck around for their whole career without transferring. That's a rarity these days, and it keeps with Colorado's old school philosophy of targeting high makeup players to create a strong clubhouse. Many of the players in this class have been described as just that by scouts – high makeup, team-first guys. Of course, that hasn't translated to *any* on-field success whatsoever, but as the saying goes, nice guys finish last in the NL West. This year's crop is a college-heavy class that features just one player under 21 years old, that being our class-headlining first rounder, instead banking more on safety to fill out a big league roster that badly needs help quickly.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Slot value: $8.77 million. Signing bonus: $9 million ($229,100 above slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #1. Baseball America: #1.
It was one of the worst-kept secrets in baseball that the Rockies were enamored with Ethan Holliday, and as it turned out they got their guy. All it took was the largest signing bonus of any player taken in the 2025 draft, the largest signing bonus ever given to a high school player (beating his brother's record of $8.19 million in 2022), and tied for the fourth highest of all time. The son of seven time All Star Matt Holliday, Ethan's older brother Jackson was the first overall pick after a massive spring at Stillwater High School in 2022 and now plays for the Orioles. While Jackson entered his senior season more of a second round prospect, Ethan has been arguably the most famous name in the 2025 prep class since all the way back to his freshman season, when he was teammates with his brother. He has maintained that status as the odds-on favorite to go first overall throughout his time at Stillwater High School (also the alma mater of Rockies 2017 second rounder Ryan Vilade). With a huge target on his back, Holliday had an uneven summer on the showcase circuit in 2024 that dented his draft stock just slightly, causing him to fall out of the top five prospects on some boards in the fall and over the winter. However, he came back with a vengeance in the spring to torment Oklahoma high school pitching, batting .611 with 19 home runs as he looked like a man among boys on the field. Much more physical than his brother was at this stage, Holliday has at least plus raw power that he has tapped and tapped again in games for years, stemming from a quick, forceful left handed swing geared for lofting the ball with authority. Standing 6'4", he's already very strong and still has plenty of room to get stronger, giving him a shot to put up 40-homer seasons in Coors Field. There are more questions about the hit tool, as (admittedly elite) showcase pitchers found holes in his swing last summer and caused him to get out of his approach. He is a relatively disciplined hitter that has seen and handled plenty of top flight pitching, so the primary concern lies with his ability to handle quality stuff in the zone. It's not a major concern, or else he would not have been drafted nearly this high, but the microscope is powerful in the top five picks. Family connections to successful ballplayers have proven to be real advantages in recent years and Holliday of course has no shortage of that, so any in-zone swing and miss issues he's currently facing are likely to be taken care of in short order, even if there is a bit of a learning curve in pro ball. Defensively, he shows good actions at shortstop with natural instincts to make all the plays that come to him, though his size will likely push him to third base in time. He's not explosive on the defensive side and does show a strong arm, but with average speed at this point, he does have an outside shot to work hard and stick at that most important position. At peak, Holliday could hit 40 home runs with average on-base percentages in that Coors environment, a lineup cornerstone for the Rockies.

2-45: RHP JB Middleton, Southern Miss
Slot value: $2.17 million. Signing bonus: $2.07 million ($100,000 below slot value).
My rank: #40. MLB Pipeline: #41. Baseball America: #58.
While Coors Field is the toughest place to be a pitcher, making free agent deals a tough sell and the draft ever more important, the Rockies have actually done a pretty solid job of developing young pitching lately. First up is JB Middleton, a breakout star from down south. Middleton barely pitched as a freshman at Southern Miss and served as a reliever as a sophomore, but took a massive step forward in 2025 as he went 10-1 with a 2.31 ERA and a sharp 122/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings, garnering first team All-American honors from some outlets including Perfect Game and NCBWA. His fastball has now crept up to a comfortable low to mid 90's, reaching 97 at peak with running action. His best pitch is a hard, tight slider in the upper 80's that can function like more of a cutter at times, getting tons of swings and misses and providing the key to his success in 2025. There is also a firm changeup with some fade, looking like an average pitch for now with a chance for better as he gains more feel. The 6' righty is not the biggest guy on the field with a slender frame that currently carries 180 pounds and doesn't appear to have tons of room for more, but he regularly pitched into the late innings in Hattiesburg including going at least seven innings in nine of his sixteen starts and four outings of eight innings or more. At season's end, his 105.1 innings were tied for the fourth most in Division I, so whatever questions there are about Middleton's durability, he has done everything he can to answer them. At this point, his control is ahead of his command, as his impressive 6% walk rate showcased a pitcher not afraid to attack the zone. The Mississippi native has a chance for three above average or better pitches that he pours into the strike zone, with the next step being to fine tune that command inside the strike zone and perhaps bring the changeup a little further along. Otherwise, if he continues to chew up innings and hold his stuff late into the game, he could be a #3 starter at the big league level.

CBB-74: OF Max Belyeu, Texas
Slot value: $1.11 million. Signing bonus: $1.11 million.
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #34. Baseball America: #33.
I felt throughout the draft process that Max Belyeu was a bit overvalued, and based on where he was ranked by major publications versus his draft position and signing bonus, it appears MLB organizations felt the same way. That said, it's a nice get here in the CBB round. Back in high school, Belyeu rode a big senior season to significant top five rounds interest, but held firm on his commitment to Texas and blossomed into one of the Longhorns' best bats, hitting .318/.414/.616 with 27 home runs in 106 games over his three year career. While his 2024 sophomore season was his biggest and netted him Big 12 Player of the Year honors, 2025 was a bit more challenging as he missed significant time during conference play with a thumb injury. Belyeu brings a strong presence to the box, combining a projectable 6'2" frame with plenty of present strength to give him above average power for now and a chance for plus down the line. He takes big hacks from the left side to tap that power, and so far he has against strong college competition. I think the hit tool is where major publications and the league diverged in opinion. Belyeu tends to get very streaky at the plate and he struck out in a third of his plate appearances in the Cape Cod League last summer. This spring, pitchers gave him much less to hit and he chased more as a result of that, this time striking out in a quarter of his at bats. When he's going right, he looks like a future lineup anchor. He turned a ton of heads at the Shriners Children's College Showdown on opening weekend, going 8-14 with two home runs and two doubles against Louisville, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma State and actually began the season on an eleven game hitting streak in which he hit .468. Then there are the cold stretches, like later in the year when he went 3-27 with 14 strikeouts in his first six games back from injury. The North Texas native will likely always be streaky has some risk of falling into a platoon role where he can see mostly right handed pitching. Given the power and the long track record of getting hot and finding his stroke even against top competition, the Rockies likely see more than that, a hitter that can club 20+ home runs per season and maintain reasonable on-base percentages. The speed is average and the glovework is fringy, and with his body type he may slow down as he continues to tack on strength. That makes a corner outfield spot the most likely destination, though his plus arm could make him a decent right fielder.

3-77: 3B Ethan Hedges, Southern California
Slot value: $1.06 million. Signing bonus: $950,000 ($110,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #159. Baseball America: #125.
I don't think anyone expected Max Belyeu, who had projections as high as the first comp rounds, and Ethan Hedges, who figured to go closer to the middle of day two, to come off the board just a couple picks apart. The Rockies are big believers in the sum of the parts here, with Hedges coming off a huge, breakout junior season at USC where he hit .346/.462/.619 with 14 home runs and was named to the All-Big Ten First Team. There is not one standout tool here, but he does a little bit of everything. He gets on plane early and gets his eyes behind the baseball, driving out and through the baseball to make consistent hard contact. The power has improved to fringe average after he hit just four home runs over his first two seasons, and at Coors Field he could wind up with 15-20 home runs per season at best if he can continue to turn on the ball consistently. It's also an average overall hit tool in that he makes good consistent hard contact, uses the whole field, and draws his walks, but can be prone to chasing and whiffing at times. He's great on the other side of the ball, with slick glovework that handles hot shots at third base reliably. Hedges served as USC's closer in 2025 and saved nine games with a 2.40 ERA while running his fastball up to 96, and while he'll be a hitter-only in pro ball, that arm strength comes in clutch at third base where the arm grades out as plus. If he can hit enough to stay on the field, he could contend for Gold Gloves at third base. That will be the key, and the Rockies love positive trajectory elevating a solid all-around game.

4-107: RHP Riley Kelly, UC Irvine
Slot value: $715,400. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($15,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #139. Baseball America: #139.
Sticking in Southern California, the Rockies bring in their second arm of the class and a very large human in Riley Kelly. The starting quarterback at Tustin High School, he wowed scouts with a huge senior season in 2022 and pushed himself into top five rounds consideration, but ultimately honored his commitment to UC Irvine as one of their biggest recruits ever to reach campus. He didn't get on the mound as much as he would have liked over his first two seasons as he battled command issues and a back injury, but took a big step forward in 2025 as he pitched his way into the Anteaters' rotation and ran with it, at one point allowing just two runs in a five start stretch (25.1 innings, 0.71 ERA). His fastball has crept up and now sits in the low 90's, touching 96 at peak with moderate life. His best pitch is a big, hammer curveball with huge spin rates and deep finish that has missed bats in bunches dating back to his prep days, while his changeup has been a positive development in Irvine and now projects as average if a bit firm. Kelly has upped the tempo in his delivery in college but still shows very streaky command, often appearing average on one day and well below average the next. It has made moderate progress lately and if it continues to trend in that direction, he could fit in the back of a big league rotation. He's just now finishing up filling out his big 6'5" frame, now pushing 240 pounds, and the Rockies will use that size to unlock a little more power in his arsenal. If the back problems are behind him, he otherwise looks durable enough to hold down a starting role, but that is something to monitor. There is nice upside here for a guy who seems to be unlocking the best version of himself.

5-138: OF Cam Nelson, Wake Forest
Slot value: $529,100. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($70,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This one is a bit out of left field. While he comes from a power program, Cam Nelson has not seen much time on the field and did not appear on any major public draft boards, but the Rockies are massive believers in the raw talent and have him a slight over slot bonus here in the fifth round. Nelson came off the bench as a freshman in 2024, often as a defensive replacement, but slugged a paltry .202 with just thirteen singles and four doubles in more than one hundred at bats. He served in a similar role in 2025 but the bat took a step forward offensively, hitting .318/.489/.485 in limited playing time. Undersized at 5'11", Nelson immediately stands out for an excellent approach at the plate, running an absurd 22% walk rate that becomes all the more impressive when you consider he was a light hitting bench bat whom opposing pitchers likely weren't terribly concerned about pitching around. He employs a slasher approach at the plate, gashing line drives around the field consistently because he forces pitchers to give him something to hit and will foul balls off until he gets one he likes, but the Rockies see more power in the tank as he gets more consistent reps and learns to elevate the ball. The Baltimore native is also a good runner who plays a solid center field, while his days as a pitcher give him a plus arm to boot. Colorado sees an undervalued development project here in the left handed hitting outfielder that could blossom into a high on-base leadoff type with strong defense down the line. A more median projection would have him as a glove-first, hit-over-power fourth outfielder who could play all three positions well.

6-167: C Matt Klein, Louisville
Slot value: $400,400. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($24,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #235.
Louisville catchers have an excellent track record lately, from Will Smith to Henry Davis to Dalton Rushing, and Matt Klein hopes to be the next. Klein, like other players in this class such as Ethan Hedges, lacks a standout tool, but by virtue of being a catcher, any surprise production would be a big bonus. Injuries have limited him a bit at Louisville and he only played 33 games in 2025 after getting hit by a pitch, but he produced when he was in the lineup and his under the hood numbers were even better. Klein uses a simple left handed swing to focus on line drives, which combined with a professional plate approach helps him keep the strikeouts way down (just 11.0% in 2025) while drawing his walks (13.1%) and getting on base (.431 OBP). That approach played against elite pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer as well, where he hit .375/.397/.417 with just an 11.4% strikeout rate in 25 games. While few doubt that he can hit pro pitching, turning that contact into impact will be the next step in his development. Klein isn't one to turn on the ball and try to hit it over the fence, causing his average raw power to play down in games. Unless Colorado can get him lifting the ball more consistently, which may come at the expense of his hit tool, he likely will always project for below average home run totals and may top out around 10-15 a year. However, given his approach and bat to ball, he may be able to trade some of that for some increased launch angle and be just alright, which would go a long way as a catcher. While the Louisville native isn't quite a Gold Glover back there, he gets the job done with average all-around glovework and arm strength and works well with pitchers. He projects as a backup catcher with a chance for more if he can unlock some of that power.

7-197: LHP Antoine Jean, Houston
Slot value: $311,900. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($111,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #196. Baseball America: #458.
Antoine Jean is a really interesting pick that may take a pretty unique path to the big leagues. A native of Montreal, he began his career at Alabama way back in 2020, where injuries limited him at times but he had success in the rotation when he was on the mound. After missing the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery, he transferred to Houston to pitch his fifth year on campus in 2024 and set career highs in starts and innings, albeit with a career-worst 5.97 ERA. When he returned to Houston for a sixth year of college baseball in 2025 for his age-23 season, something clicked. The power ticked up across his arsenal and he blossomed into one of the best relievers in college baseball, taking home Big 12 Pitcher of the Year honors as he led all college relievers with 110 strikeouts. The fastball now sits low 90's and touches 96, not overwhelming velocity from a reliever but enough to play up with run and ride. He throws a pair of fall-off-the-table breaking balls in his curveball and slider, both of which dive late away from hitters, while his changeup is a fourth pitch but still one that will be usable in pro ball. His command is average, but he mixes and matches his offerings very effectively as a former soft tossing crafty lefty that now has average power across his arsenal. He can manipulate the shapes of his fastball and breaking balls, giving him a much, much deeper arsenal than the typical reliever. The 6'2" lefty is a bit slight of stature and may not get much bigger, but he has a history of starting and completed four or more innings on ten occasions in 2025, all in relief, and his arsenal is more than deep enough to start. Colorado will likely send Jean back into the rotation to start his career, where he could work his way up as a back-end starter. He turned 24 in August, making him one of the oldest players in this year's draft and already older than a quarter of the Rockies' 40 man roster (including Chase Dollander, Adael Amador, and Angel Chivilli while sharing an exact birth date with Ezequiel Tovar). That doesn't give him much time if he wants ascend the levels as a starter, though as a reliever he could be ready as soon as 2026.

8-227: 1B Tanner Thach, UNC Wilmington
Slot value: $247,200. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($77,800 above slot value).
My rank: #156. MLB Pipeline: #151. Baseball America: #134.
Tanner Thach brings Colorado some of the best power in its 2025 class here in the eighth round, which is always fun to see at Coors Field. Thach reached UNC Wilmington's campus as a two-way player but quickly established himself as a primary hitter, setting the Seahawks' freshman record by hitting fifteen home runs in 2023. He exploded for 27 in 2024, this time breaking the school's single season record in general and good for #11 in the nation that year. While he couldn't quite match the power output in 2025, he still finished as the school's all time home run leader with 54 over three seasons. Listed at 6'4", 225 pounds, he shows plus raw power that he taps every bit of in games with a natural tendency to elevate the ball to the pull side, having done so consistently way back to his prep days at Perquimans County High School in eastern North Carolina. He also shows above average bat to ball ability that helped him cut his strikeout rate under 15% in 2025, and as a career .271/.359/.495 hitter over 55 games and two seasons in the Cape Cod League, he has proven he can handle high level pitching. At this point, the one drawback in the offensive profile is his proclivity to chase, as he has feasted on CAA pitching by consistently expanding the zone and letting his natural bat to ball do the work. At the next level, pro pitchers are likely to take advantage of that aggressive approach and feed him a steady diet of offspeed stuff, and if he doesn't adjust there is risk that he becomes a platoon bat that sits against left handed pitchers. Thach is also a well below average runner that will be limited to first base only, which puts a lot of pressure on the bat. Colorado is buying his track record not only in the CAA but on the Cape, which to them indicates that he will be just fine against pro pitching and could bring a Michael Toglia-like profile to Coors Field.

19-557: RHP Easton Marks, Florida International
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The only Rocky Mountain product in this Rockies class is Easton Marks. A Denver native, he attended Arapahoe High School in nearby Centennial just to the south and began his career at Nevada, where he worked his way into the rotation as a sophomore but struggled in the hitter-friendly environment. Transferring nearly 2500 miles across the country to FIU, he found far greater success with the Panthers and became the school's first pitcher since 2019 to be named first team all C-USA. While he initially committed to transfer a second time to Miami in 2026, he'll head back home instead to begin his pro career. He has always thrown hard, now sitting in the low to mid 90's and grabbing 97 at peak. He can turn that over into a tight cutter with late movement, while he has tightened up his curveball with late bite down in the zone. Marks also throws a changeup with late fade to the arm side, giving him a really nice arsenal for the nineteenth round. The 6'1" righty struggled with command back at Nevada but dropped his walk rate from an ugly 17.6% as a sophomore in Reno to a more reasonable 11.7% as a junior in Miami. It's still below average command, but much more playable and the results speak for themselves. If he can continue to tighten that up, his four pitch mix can play in a big league rotation and the Rockies will have great value from the late rounds. He will probably need to jump another full grade in that regard, so a bullpen career is certainly a possibility.

Wednesday, September 7, 2022

The top 12 unsigned high school pitchers from the 2022 draft

Earlier this week, we took a look at the top high school hitters to reach campus and before that looked at a rather shallow group of unsigned college players. We'll close it out with incoming freshman pitchers, which bring eleven different schools for the twelve arms. Just like with the hitters, LSU is again the only school with multiple names on their list, and their five combined blows out second place Notre Dame with two combined. Pitchers can be more unpredictable than hitters, but certainly keep an eye on these names as past lists have included names like Jack Leiter, Hunter Barco, Cade Horton, Ricky Tiedemann, Tanner Witt, Thatcher Hurd, Chase Burns, Brody Brecht, and Carter Holton, all of whom went on to become impact pitchers in one way or another. This list also includes my top overall recruit at any position in terms of MLB Draft value in Andrew Dutkanych, who regularly flashed first round potential.

1. RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Vanderbilt. My 2022 draft rank: #37*.
Andrew Dutkanych removed himself from the draft before the event and therefore did not appear on my draft rankings, but he would have ranked #37 and is therefore the top high school prospect at any position to reach campus this fall, well ahead of #54 Max Martin of Rutgers. Dutkanych's stock had been very up and down throughout the draft cycle, so rather than play games with the draft, he'll look for more consistency as part of a Vanderbilt program that could use a boost in the rotation. He looked exceptional at times over the summer and heard his name as high as the middle of the first round, but also had some rougher outings that threw some doubt into the equation. While warm weather arms like Jackson Ferris, Dylan Lesko, and Brandon Barriera got off to hot starts, Dutkanych had to hang back an extra minute while the Indiana weather warmed up, and he slipped a little on boards. Then he came out firing early in the Indianapolis spring, rocketing back into the first round conversation, before his command began to falter and he slipped back down once again. So what is Vanderbilt getting? I'm personally a fan of Dutkanych, who at his best looks like by far the best incoming freshman pitcher in the country. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 97 with some ride, while his short, tight slider looks plus at its best and can miss a ton of bats. He also throws a loopier curveball that shows promise if he can tighten it up in addition to a fringy but improving changeup, giving him the chance for four average or better pitches. The 6'3" righty loves to go right after hitters and pounds the strike zone with intent, throwing all of his pitches with conviction just the way you want to see it. His control is ahead of his command, as he can miss up with his fastball and spike his breaking balls and is overall inconsistent in that department, but that's where you'd rather miss and I have confidence Tim Corbin's staff will get him straightened out. Even with Christian Little gone to LSU and Chris McElvain now in the Reds system, it's a crowded rotation picture in Nashville between Dutkanych, Carter Holton, Devin Futrell, Patrick Reilly, and the litany of talented young arms waiting to step up. Dutkanych will be draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2024, having been born right on the cutoff day just like Stanford's Malcolm Moore and Texas' Jalin Flores ironically enough, so he'll want to earn those innings sooner rather than later. I think he can, and he could challenge Holton for the Friday night spot by 2024.

2. LHP Tristan Smith, Clemson. My 2022 draft rank: #68.
Clemson thought they might land two of the best high school pitchers in the country when both Tristan Smith and Brock Porter slipped out of the top three rounds, but even with Porter signing with the Rangers for a massive bonus, Smith will bring some real firepower to a pitching staff that remains largely intact outside of ace Mack Anglin (Royals). With only Anglin gone, it may be tough to find innings in a rotation that will also add impact transfer Willie Weiss from Michigan, but the 2022 South Carolina Gatorade Player of the Year has what it takes to break through. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 96, with high spin rates that give it plenty of life. His best pitch is a plus slider, again with high spin rates, that comes in with sharp, late break to miss bats in bunches. Smith mainly works off those two pitches and will need to develop his changeup to eventually take over that Friday night role, but it's a very loud arsenal regardless. The 6'2" lefty is athletic and moves well on the mound, though he has some moving parts in his delivery and can lose his release point at times, leading to inconsistent command. It's good enough for now, but he'll want to clean that up quickly because he's extremely old for an incoming freshman and will be draft eligible again in 2024. If he can't take a step forward with either his command or his changeup, he'll project well as a starter in pro ball, but there is some long term relief risk.

3. RHP Riley Kelly, UC Irvine. My 2022 draft rank: #88.
Riley Kelly is a projection play that may not make an immediate impact at UC Irvine with only moderate turnover on the pitching staff, but given some time, I think he could become the next great Anteater ace. He was a pop-up prospect this spring and had some serious draft helium as scouts came rushing in to Orange County to see him at Tustin High School, though he was still just a little bit to raw to command a signing bonus large enough to steer him away from school. His fastball sits around 90 and tops out around 94, dipping into the upper 80's at times. Kelly's best attribute is his curveball, with huge top to bottom break that he can sharpen up for a tighter look if he wants. He commands it well and it might be the best incoming freshman breaking ball coming to campus this fall. The changeup is a distant third pitch for now, which of course he'll want to develop in order to take that Friday night role eventually. The 6'4" righty is tremendously projectable and will almost assuredly add velocity in Irvine as he fills out that big frame, especially as he smooths out a methodical delivery that loses power as he moves through it. That in turn should help his command, which is presently fringy. Kelly has a ton of work to do to reach his lofty ceiling, but UC Irvine has a strong track record of pitching development from Trenton Denholm to Andre Pallante.

4. LHP Levi Huesman, Coastal Carolina. My 2022 draft rank: #110.
Levi Huesman has some work to do before he's ready to take on Sun Belt competition, but Coastal Carolina lost its entire weekend rotation and would love for him to step up if possible. He burst onto the scene last fall at the WWBA Championship, then rode a solid but unspectacular spring to a seventeenth round selection by the Rays. Huesman sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96 at best, though he didn't always maintain that velocity last spring and often pitched closer to 90. He also throws an interesting sweeping slider that looks like a plus pitch at its best with plenty of break, but he does need to tighten it up as it gets loopy at times. Lastly, his changeup is well behind and will need to be developed. The Richmond-area native stands just six feet tall and doesn't offer a ton of projection with his skinny frame, but he is very athletic on the mound and repeats his delivery well, pounding the strike zone with average command. His shorter stature also helps him get a lower release height on the ball, giving his fastball great ride and helping the slider play off it. Coastal Carolina will want to help him get stronger so he can maintain his peak stuff over a long college season, and if he can hold his command together while doing so, he has every chance to jump into that weekend rotation.

5. RHP Chase Shores, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #111.
LSU landed three names on the position player version of this article, and Chase Shores gives them their first pitcher. Last year, LSU was more known for their bats than their arms, but they return virtually everyone from last year's staff save for starter Ma'Khail Hilliard (graduation) and relievers Eric Reyzelman (Yankees) and Paul Gervase (Mets). In addition, they're bringing in a huge class of transfer arms led by Thatcher Hurd (UCLA), Christian Little (Vanderbilt), and Paul Skenes (Air Force), and then there's the freshman class led by Shores and the next man on this list, Jaden Noot. So long story short, it will be tough to earn innings, but he could be up to the task. Standing 6'8', he's already the tallest man in the dugout, and at 250 pounds he's no string bean. Shores comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch 98, playing up with running and sinking action from a low three quarters slot. That slot and height combination gives hitters a very tough look, and immediately gives him a leg up even on SEC competition. The West Texas native has a full set of inconsistent secondaries that flash average, with the slider the most promising pitch for now with above average grades at its best. Meanwhile, his arm slot can drop when he gets tired, leading to diminished command in those cases, but he fills up the zone when he's at full strength and getting on that LSU conditioning program should help him stay there. It feels redundant to say with a 6'8" freshman that can touch 98, but there is a ton of upside here if Jay Johnson's staff can get him more consistent with his secondary stuff while holding the command together.

6. RHP Jaden Noot, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #118.
Jaden Noot will jostle with Chase Shores for innings on that crowded LSU pitching staff, and he may have a better shot to win innings right away in 2023. He's also a big man at 6'4", 235 pounds, but he's more physical and not quite as athletic at this point. Noot sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 97, adding a slider that flashes above average, a loopy curveball with good depth in the low 70's, and a decent changeup. It's a very college-ready arsenal, though he does need to sharpen some things up to get from freshman innings eater to impact Friday/Saturday guy. The fastball has the velocity, but it's fairly straight and he'll need to play it off his other pitches. Meanwhile his curveball needs to add power to complement its depth, while he can slow his arm down on changeups at times. None of that is anything crazy, and there's no reason Jay Johnson and co. shouldn't be able to get him there. The Southern California native has tremendous arm strength and looks like he's just playing catch out there, which makes up for a relative lack of athleticism. If he can maintain his body and refine his offspeed stuff a bit, he has the chance to pitch a lot of big innings in Baton Rouge.

7. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa. My 2022 draft rank: #124.
Cade Obermueller draws a lot of parallels to Coastal Carolina's Levi Huesman. He's another undersized lefty that stands just 5'11", though he's thirty pounds lighter than Huesman and clocks in at just 155 pounds. Obviously the first thing the Iowa staff will want to do will be to stuff him full of steaks and protein, but he's already a great athlete and should put any added strength to good use. His fastball sits around 90 for now and tops out at 93, with similar flat plane to Huesman from a lower slot, albeit with some cut as well that makes it a fairly unique pitch. He brings a sweepy slider similar to Huesman as well and a decent changeup, rounding out a three pitch arsenal. Once Obermueller puts that weight on, he'll likely add a tick or two of velocity to his fastball and power to his slider, which will be necessary for him to fill Adam Mazur's shoes as a Friday night starter. Otherwise, his floor is something similar to Illinois' (now the Marlins') Cole Kirschsieper if the stuff doesn't tick up, which is still solid. The Iowa City native is a great athlete who should be able to hold his command together as his stuff ticks up, making it a very interesting profile all around. With Mazur (Padres) and swingmen Dylan Nedved (Padres) and Duncan Davitt (Rays) gone to pro ball, he'll have the opportunity to step into some innings quickly.

8. RHP Kassius Thomas, Duke. My 2022 draft rank: #130.
Duke is losing four of its top five arms by innings from 2022, plus TJ returner Henry Williams, so getting Kassius Thomas to campus will be a huge boon and he'll have an opportunity to earn big innings right away. He and Jaden Noot formed one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at Sierra Canyon High School in the Los Angeles area, and now both are heading way east for school. While Noot is a big, sturdy power arm, Thomas is more athletic and projectable as he trends in the right direction. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to 95, with a quick right arm that promises more velocity as he fills out. He works in a full arsenal of solid secondary pitches, lead by a slider that flashes plus at its best and followed by a solid curveball and potentially above average changeup. The 6'1" righty doesn't always repeat his arm slot and can get around his breaking stuff, losing bite in the process and impacting his command, but he is trending in the right direction and hopefully Duke can keep that progress rolling. There is plenty to work with here and Thomas is a heady athlete with a high baseball IQ, so if he can put the velocity, athleticism, and feel for spin together consistently, he'll be a star in Durham.

9. RHP David Lally, Notre Dame. My 2022 draft rank: #134.
Interestingly, two of my favorite lesser-known names getting to campus are both heading to Notre Dame. Incoming infielder Estevan Moreno is my sleeper pick as a hitter, while righty David Lally is a very interesting one on the mound. The Irish will have significant turnover on the mound, losing most of their go-to arms either to pro ball or the transfer portal while also bringing in a couple of useful transfers, not to mention swapping head coaches from Link Jarrett to Shawn Stiffler. All that upheaval will give Lally a chance to break through, though he is fairly raw and might not be quite ready from the get go. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96, with running life that can make it tough to square up. His breaking ball hasn't quite found its identity yet, but he does show good feel for spin and with some coaching could make some real leaps int hat area. Additionally, Flint, Michigan-area native shows a very strong changeup for a cold weather arm from an area that isn't traditionally a prospect hotbed, giving him an immediate weapon to use in South Bend. Standing 6'4", he comes with good projection and moves very well on the mound, though his mechanics are raw and will need to be smoothed out by the Notre Dame coaching staff. All together, if they get this right, Lally brings a ton of upside as a hard throwing righty that could end up with two or even three above average offspeed offerings.

10. RHP Jack O'Connor, Virginia. My 2022 draft rank: #142.
Despite losing Friday night starter Nate Savino (Diamondbacks) and swingman Brandon Neeck (Dodgers), among others, UVA projects to bring back a deep pitching staff augmented by a strong transfer class, so Jack O'Connor will have to fight for innings early on. He was inconsistent this spring, but had a little bit of late helium and may be ready. O'Connor sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96, adding in a full set of secondaries. His above average slider is the best for now, and he can turn it into a harder cutter if he needs to, while his curveball is a bit looper and his changeup is a fringy pitch at this point. The Northern Virginia native hides the ball well from a very short arm action, though his command has been inconsistent and he'll want to get that ironed out in Charlottesville in addition to getting more consistent with his secondaries. O'Connor is big and projectable at 6'5" with plenty of arm strength, giving him a ton of upside, though UVA has had mixed results with premium arms that have reached campus lately like Savino and Mike Vasil.

11. RHP Grayson Saunier, Mississippi. My 2022 draft rank: #144.
Six different pitchers started at least five games for Ole Miss in 2022, and five of them plus closer Brandon Johnson are gone to either pro ball, the transfer portal, or medical school (props to you, John Gaddis), so there will be turnover on that champion pitching staff. That gives Grayson Saunier a chance to wrestle for innings in the rotation, though I see him more as a long term projection play who may not be ready for extended innings in the SEC until 2024. He has missed significant time with injuries in high school but should be healthy now, giving him the opportunity to build up for the season. Those injuries have caused Saunier's fastball to dip into the upper 80's at times, but he's up to 96 at his best with a ton of projection in his 6'4" frame promising to bring even more. His secondaries all flash big promise, with a couple of high spin breaking balls and a fading changeup making for a very intriguing four pitch arsenal. Being hurt has meant that he hasn't gotten the opportunity to refine those offerings and get more consistent, but now that he's healthy the Ole Miss coaching staff will get to work on that with him. The Memphis-area product has a clean, athletic delivery with the aforementioned ideal frame, so once he gets a little stronger, the sky is the limit if everything breaks right.

12. RHP Eli Jerzembeck, South Carolina. My 2022 draft rank: #153.
South Carolina returns the vast majority of its pitching staff and adds a couple of big transfer arms as well, so Eli Jerzembeck will have to fight for innings.  The good news is that he's fairly advanced coming in and should be able to provide quality innings as a reliever before jumping into the rotation in 2024, when he'll be draft eligible again due to a very early birthday. Jerzembeck sits around 90 with his fastball but has been up to 96, so the arm strength is certainly there. His best pitch is a plus curveball with sharp, late bite that can get SEC hitters out right away, while his slider and changeup are less used pitches. The 6'2" righty does need to iron out his mechanics as a short strider and an upright thrower, and doing so could help him settle closer to his peak velocity than he does right now. Out of the USC bullpen, I can imagine him sitting 93-95 with that power curveball and carving up SEC lineups immediately, then working into the rotation as he gets those mechanics optimized and refines the rest of his arsenal a little more. How well he makes those adjustments will also determine his future role in pro ball.

Honorable Mentions
#158 RHP/QB Sam Horn, Missouri
#160 RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara
#163 RHP Hayden Murphy, Auburn
#167 RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Jacksonville
#185 BHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Mississippi State
#189 LHP Brennan Phillips, Oklahoma State
#197 LHP Bradley Loftin, Mississippi State
#204 LHP Zach Crotchfelt, Auburn

Thursday, September 1, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

I really like what the Diamondbacks did at the top of the draft, bringing in who I believe to be the best player in the class followed by the pitcher with the best combination of stuff and command in the class, followed by the best hitter in college baseball. However, the draft quickly got odd, as they wound up with four unsigned high schoolers on day three despite coming in about $350,000 below their bonus pool and $1.1 million below the 5% overage allowance. So the fact that they couldn't sign Malachi Witherspoon, Aiva Arquette, Gavin Turley, or Riley Kelly comes down to some combination of cheaping out on the single most cost-effective way to add talent and underestimating the bonus demands of those four. They never expected to sign all four, but I have to imagine they hoped to come away with at least one, and either ownership closed the purse or all four wanted more than the roughly $475,000 they could spend without going over the pool. Still, I'm sure they could have gotten at least one if not two deals done if they had used that 5% overage. Just odd. Among the guys they did sign, I already mentioned that I loved the first couple of picks, and I also think Nogales star Demetrio Crisantes is a very interesting sleeper.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-2: OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS [GA]. My rank: #1.
Slot value: $8.19 million. Signing bonus: $8.19 million.
Druw Jones, in my opinion, is the single best player in this class. That makes getting him at the second pick a steal in my book, especially given the Diamondbacks' success with other prep bats like Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and Jordan Lawlar. Druw Jones looks like a potential superstar, and I don't say that lightly – not every draft produces one. The son of former five time All Star and hopefully soon-to-be Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, Druw is just oozing with potential. He's built exactly like you draw them up, with a long, rangy, 6'4" frame with plenty of present strength and room to add considerably more. Not only that, but he's extremely athletic as well, registering plus-plus run times and simply moving gracefully around the field and in the box. That huge speed helps make him an exceptional defender in center field, where he also shows the excellent instincts you'd expect as the sone of arguably the greatest defensive outfielder of all time. Throw in a plus arm and you have a potential perennial Gold Glover out there. At the plate, Jones is equally impressive. He holds his hands high but gets on plane with the pitch early, staying through the zone to produce plus power to all fields. His approach is presently geared towards pulling the ball to left field, but he shows exceptional plate coverage and can still do so on the outer half of the plate. When he does go the other way, he still has plenty of pop in his bat to send the ball out over the right field fence as well. As the Atlanta-area native gets stronger and more mature, he'll have all the tools and natural ability ready to work from. To top it off, there isn't much swing and miss in his game at present and he really hasn't been challenged even facing the premium pitchers in his class. All together, it's a pretty maxed out profile with very, very little to nitpick and lots to dream on. Of course there is still plenty of development to be done given that he's only 18, but compared to his peers, he's ahead of them all. I see a perennial All Star in this profile. Unfortunately, just like Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar before him, he injured his shoulder almost immediately after signing and will miss the season, but I can't wait to see him back on the field in 2023.

CBA-34: RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State. My rank: #23.
Slot value: $2.26 million. Signing bonus: $2.35 million ($88,750 above slot value).
Landon Sims has one of the most fun profiles in the draft, and the Diamondbacks are thrilled to get what they (and I) believe is a first round talent for only a small over slot bonus in the competitive balance round. Sims was a well known draft prospect out of high school, but made it to campus at Mississippi State and rocketed to fame as the closer on their 2021 National Championship team, where he posted a 1.44 ERA and a 100/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings. Converting to a starter in 2022, he was dominant once again to start out but was pulled from his third start in the midst of striking out ten of the first eleven batters he faced. Unfortunately, Sims ended up needing Tommy John surgery, so he finished the year with a 1.15 ERA and a 27/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings as a starter. So what do we have here? The Atlanta-area native has one of the best two-pitch mixes college baseball has seen in recent memory between his fastball and his slider. Sims' fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets up to 98, but plays above its velocity with tremendous riding life. You can throw a straight 96 or you can throw 96 that looks like it's exploding out of your hand, and this fastball is certainly the latter. Next we have an equally devastating slider, another plus-plus pitch with late, hard bite that left virtually the entire SEC helpless last year. Those two pitches helped him rack up a 46.9% strikeout rate as a sophomore (for reference, only Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Craig Kimbrel [twice], and Edwin Diaz [if he keeps this pace] have ever bested that mark in a single season, min. 50 IP). In anticipation of moving to the rotation this spring, he added a changeup over the offseason and it looked like a potential above average pitch in workouts. It seems like he was waiting for SEC play to break it out so we didn't get to see it much in game play, but it would give him that third pitch necessary to start. Most hard throwing college relievers have command problems, but Sims is actually above average in that regard and pounds the strike zone, going right after hitters consistently and working ahead in the count often. That is a huge piece in projecting him as a starter, and he walked just two batters in those 15.2 innings as a starter this spring. To top it all off, the sturdy, 6'2" righty is an absolute fire breathing bulldog on the mound that lives for the bright lights and high pressure situations. Between the stuff, command, size, and competitiveness, he's a pretty complete package that brings everything except a track record as a starter. Once healthy, I'm again excited to see where this goes.

2-43: 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas. My rank: #63.
Slot value: $1.82 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($418,500 below slot value).
In Ivan Melendez, the Diamondbacks got arguably the single best *right now* hitter in amateur baseball. A semi-hometown pick from El Paso, which is actually closer to Chase Field in Phoenix than it is to any other MLB stadium, the Hispanic Titanic began his college career at Odessa JC and transferred to Texas in 2021, where he earned significant day two draft interest but ultimately wound up returning to school to cut his strikeout rate. That move paid off in a big way, as he looked like a man amongst boys this spring with 32 home runs, a .387/.508/.863 slash line, and a 51/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. Melendez produces mammoth exit velocities with a lightning quick right handed swing and 225 pounds of brute strength packed into his 6'3" frame, helping him lead all of Division I baseball in home runs by three over second place Luke Franzoni of Xavier (Angels, 19th round). He lofts the ball extremely well with a steep uppercut, helping all of his plus-plus raw power play in games and it will continue to do so. Last year, that uppercut led to a 26.1% strikeout rate that scared teams off, but he dropped it to 16.2% this spring and now may have a fringe-average hit tool. He's recognizing pitches better and getting his barrel there more efficiently, though opposing pitchers may still be able to find holes in his swing in pro ball. Melendez will always have to deal with strikeouts, so the key will be patching up as many holes as he can, accepting the strikeouts that do come, and just doing immense damage when he does make contact. Based off of what he did in 2022, that contact should come much more often now. A year ago, he served as Texas' DH, but he took over as the every day first baseman this spring and showed well. An average or above average first baseman still does not provide much defensive value, but it's something and he should have plenty of bat to profile there regardless. Worst case scenario, he should be a power hitting bench bat and could move quickly if his approach translates to pro pitching. So far, he's slashing .206/.365/.353 with two home runs and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

3-82: LHP Nate Savino, Virginia. My rank: #117.
Slot value: $782,400. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($82,400 below slot value).
Nate Savino is a really, really hard one to pin down. A potential first round pick out of high school in 2020, he reclassified and came to Virginia a year early and immediately slotted into the rotation when the season began shortly after his 18th birthday. In 2021, he looked more good than great and the prospect shine wore off a little, and then while he showed flashes of bigger things to come in 2022, he just as often looked ordinary out there. The final numbers this spring came out to a 3.69 ERA and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, highlighted by a complete game shutout against Duke and on the opposite end, three straight starts against Georgia Tech, Miami, and Pittsburgh in which he allowed six runs apiece (not all earned). Savino was up to 96 with his fastball as a high schooler and showed flashes of that velocity this spring, but also sat closer to 90 at times with average life from a wide slot. He flashes an above average slider and a solid changeup from that slot, coming across the plate with east-west action, but those pitches are inconsistent as well and can flatten out. They were on more often than not this spring and he bumped his strikeout rate from a very low 14.3% as a sophomore to a decent 23.1% as a junior, which is progress for sure. Additionally, the 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and repeats his delivery well, leading to solid average command, and it could potentially improve to above average in the Arizona development system. The Diamondbacks are really buying the youth here, as Savino doesn't turn 21 until January and most kids his age would be heading back to campus for their draft year right now, ready to build on their profile. The Northern Virginia native showed just how talented he was back in high school and glimpses of that talent are shining through more and more often now, even if he hasn't quite put it all together like the coaching staff in Charlottesville hoped. To me it looks like a #4 starter profile with some upside.

4-108: RHP Dylan Ray, Alabama. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $565,800. Signing bonus: $565,800.
When the draft was moved back from June to July, it allowed players to get in extra reps in the Cape Cod League and created a new definition for "late riser." Dylan Ray falls into this group, with his helium coming so late in the game that he went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250 and Baseball America's top 500, while coming in at #259 on Prospects Live, but signed for full slot value at #108. Ray got hurt and didn't pitch as a freshman, then as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2022 due to an extremely early birthday, he put up a 4.60 ERA and a 49/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings out of the Alabama bullpen. It was very solid if unspectacular, but he went to the Cape and promptly put up a 1.63 ERA and a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven innings, opening eyes. Ray sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 98, coming in with plenty of riding life from an over the top delivery. He spins a pretty nasty curveball with depth and a harder slider when he locates them, but he struggles to command those breaking balls and often leaves them up, where they flatten out. There's a changeup in there too, but again, it's behind. The 6'3" righty has the frame and delivery to start, but needs to get much more consistent with his secondary stuff in order to do so. He's pretty young, having only turned 21 in May, and doesn't have much game experience on the mound. It's a pretty safe bet that the fastball and breaking balls would be nasty in a bullpen role, like they were on the Cape, but I have to believe that if the Diamondbacks are going to give him more than $500,000 to sign, they'll at least want to try out the Huntsville-area native in the rotation. So far in that role, he has a 6.30 ERA and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

5-138: SS Andrew Pintar, Brigham Young. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $422,600. Signing bonus: $316,950 ($105,650 below slot value).
Andrew Pintar hit .333/.433/.556 as a sophomore at BYU and entered the spring as one of the more interesting prospects in the Rocky Mountain region, but his 2022 wound up being a nightmare. He hit just .209/.329/.284 with no home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 17 games, then went down with a shoulder injury that wiped out the rest of his season. The strikeout rate ballooned from 12.8% as a sophomore to 21.5% as a junior while his walk rate dropped from 14.2% to 10.1% and he hit for zero power. If the Diamondbacks are giving him more than $300,000 to sign, it's because they believe his struggles could almost entirely be attributed to that shoulder injury and that the 2021 Andrew Pintar is the real Andrew Pintar. That version of him made a ton of contact all over the zone, spraying line drives around the field consistently while turning some into home runs when they caught enough air. The power has always been fringy, but with his wiry 6'2" frame and quick right handed bat, he does have the ability to turn on the ball and put it in the seats. Arizona will want to get the Spanish Fork, Utah native healthy again and back to feeling like himself, where they could get a high average, moderate power bat lower in the draft than you'd expect. They drafted Pintar as a shortstop, but he had fringy arm strength before the shoulder injury and almost certainly projects better at second base, where he won't be as stretched.

6-168: LHP Will Mabrey, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $317,100. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($92,100 below slot value).
On a pitching staff full of pitchers that could reach triple digits, Will Mabrey offered a literal change of pace in the Tennessee bullpen. After barely pitching as an underclassman, he became one of the Volunteers' most reliable relievers with a 2.63 ERA and a 52/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings this spring. Mabrey's stuff isn't overpowering, with a low 90's fastball that tops out around 95, an above average slider that plays well off his fastball, and a less used curveball and changeup. Not overly physical at 6', 185 pounds, the lefty hides the ball well and comes in with flat plane, making it difficult to pick up his stuff. Additionally, he commands everything with precision, making this a very unconventional profile for a college reliever, a demographic that typically throw poorly-located gas if they're going to get drafted. To succeed in pro ball, the Cookeville, Tennessee native will need to add a tick or two to his fastball, which combined with the life, deception, and command he possesses, could make it a very tough pitch to handle. If he does see his stuff tick up in pro ball, he could move quickly to the Arizona bullpen.

7-198: SS Demetrio Crisantes, Nogales HS [AZ]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $247,200. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($177,800 above slot value).
First off, what a name. Second off, Demetrio Crisantes brings the Diamondbacks a hometown player to throw into the system. He attended Nogales High School on the Mexican border, and grew up a few exits north on I-19 in Rio Rico. Crisantes had been committed to play college ball at Arizona, but the Diamondbacks were able to pull him to Phoenix rather than Tucson for a sizable over slot bonus. He wasn't on my radar prior to the draft, but now having done some research, I'm bought in. He is extremely fluid in the box with a whippy, powerful right handed swing that naturally channels his strength into useable power, with great feel for the barrel that helps him drive balls all around the park. Crisantes does need to get stronger in order to maximize that power, though at a skinny six feet tall, it's not an ultra projectable frame. Still, there is enough room in there to add a tick or two, which will go a long way given the way he moves in the box. Additionally, he is extremely disciplined at the plate and Baseball America noted that he walked 32 times to just three strikeouts this spring, showcasing not only his barrel to ball skills but his pure bat to ball skills as well. At shortstop, he's springy and fluid again with enough arm strength to stick, though he'll need to quicken his transfer and arm stroke in order to stay there as he does have a tendency to gather himself and shuffle before he throws. To top it off, Crisantes is extremely young for a high school senior and will only turn 18 a few days after I publish this article. There is a ton of ceiling here for the desert kid and the Diamondbacks do very well with this type of player.

11-318: LHP Spencer Giesting, Charlotte. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
Spencer Giesting gives the Diamondbacks a bit of an under the radar arm, though he did command a pretty hefty fifth round-caliber bonus as a draft eligible sophomore. After a solid freshman season as a swingman, he put up a 3.72 ERA and a 105/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings as a sophomore this spring to build off some moderate Cape Cod League success. Giesting sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has been up to 96, with flat plane and a ton of riding life that help it play above its velocity. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball with a hard slider and a solid curveball and mixes in a changeup as well. At 6'4" with a good body and athletic movement on the mound, as well as having just turned 21 shortly before the draft, he offers plenty of projection now in the Arizona development system. They'll want to help him add a tick or two to his fastball so that it can make the most of its riding life, but the main priority right now should be his below average command. Sticking in the rotation will likely require an improvement both in his fastball velocity and command, which is entirely possible, while a move to the bullpen will likely be in order if he can't get that done. Regardless, his fastball could sit closer to the mid 90's in shorter stints and get that extra bump to help the riding fastball really play. So far, he has a 7.45 ERA and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

12-348: RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Flagler HS [FL]. My rank: #167.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Malachi Witherspoon won't be heading to the desert and will instead stay home to attend Jacksonville, alma mater of Daniel Murphy and Austin Hays. Witherspoon has plenty of relievery traits right now, but there is also tremendous raw ability from a kid who only turned 18 in August. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 94-95, with big spin rates that give the pitch some life. He can really rip through his curveball, again with huge spin rates and hard depth and bite that make it a potential plus pitch. Witherspoon's changeup also flashes above average at its best, giving him a really dangerous arsenal at a really young age. The 6'3" righty is a very strong kid and only projects to get stronger, making it a profile to dream on. For now, his offspeed stuff can be very inconsistent as he's still learning how to harness it effectively, and with a drop and drive delivery that features some head whack and a late arm, he comes with significant reliever risk. The definition of a boom or bust profile, I'll be very interested to see what happens at Jacksonville over the next few years.

18-528: SS Aiva Arquette, Saint Louis HS [HI]. My rank: #194.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Aiva Arquette also did not sign, so he will attend Washington to build his stock. He lacks a carrying tool to this point, which may have tampered his interest out of high school, but does a lot of things well and building up a track record in Seattle will help his profile significantly. Arquette is very projectable at 6'4" and looks like a ballplayer, portending to future added strength on top of a pretty athletic frame as it is. He makes a lot of contact from the right side and can handle pitches all over the plate, though when he tries to swing for power, his swing can get a bit rigid and lead to minor swing and miss concerns. The Washington coaching staff is going to want to help him get stronger and access his power more naturally, which would be huge for his offensive projection. For now, the Hawaiian plays shortstop and should stick there in Seattle with smooth glovework and enough range and arm strength to be playable. He's not all that explosive, though, and may fit better at third base in the long run if he slows down at all with age.

19-558: OF Gavin Turley, Hamilton HS [AZ]. My rank: #69.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Gavin Turley originally hails from Midway, Utah, a small town across the Wasatch Range from Salt Lake City, but he moved south to Arizona around the time his brother, Noah, started play at Yavapai JC in Prescott, Arizona. While Noah eventually transferred to the University of Arizona, Gavin played his high school ball for the powerhouse Hamilton High School program in Chandler in the far southwestern Phoenix suburbs. Instead of staying to play for his new hometown team, he'll head back up north to Oregon State and hope to follow a Dylan Crews-like path to stardom. Turley is one of the best athletes in the class, with plus-plus speed that makes him a menace on the bases. Not only that, but quick hands and loose, powerful right handed swing can generate huge exit velocities for plus raw power, and he knows it. The approach at the plate is very raw right now, as he tends to sell out for power causing his swing to get too big, which combined with aggressive pitch selection is often too much for his fringy bat to ball skills to overcome. In Corvallis, Turley will need to learn to trust his incredible raw ability and let the home runs come naturally, in which case he could easily emerge a first round pick in 2025. He's raw on the defensive side as well, with fringy instincts leading to a potential career in right field despite his blazing speed. Throw in a plus arm, and he'll fit in very well there.

20-588: RHP Riley Kelly, Tustin HS [CA]. My rank: #88.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The Diamondbacks closed out the draft with one more name that didn't sign, as Riley Kelly will instead stay home in Orange County and head to UC Irvine. Kelly was a pop up name this spring when his stuff ticked up, and it will likely continue to improve in Irvine. His fastball sits around 90, topping out around 94 with some ride, and more velocity is coming. His potentially plus-plus curveball is by far his best pitch, with massive depth and bite that can be sharpened if he wants something tighter. Lastly, his changeup is a bit behind. The 6'4" righty is very projectable with plenty of room to fill out, and the UC Irvine coaching staff will have the opportunity to smooth out his mechanics as well to help him better channel his strength. He'll need to add more power to his arsenal and bring that changeup along if he wants to start, and his command could use a little tuneup as well. There is a lot to work on, but I like his chances to get it done.

Sunday, May 15, 2022

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL West Team

If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. None of the AL/NL West ones came true, not that I expected them to, but some did in other divisions. So, thinking about our friends making up the AL and NL West divisions, if each of them were to take a shot on a hometown kid, who might that be? Let's go team by team.
AL/NL Central
AL/NL East

Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Gavin Turley, Hamilton HS, Chandler, AZ
Hometown: Midway, Utah. My rank: #46.
I'm not sure exactly how this situation played out, but it looks like Gavin Turley grew up in Midway, Utah, just over the Wasatch Range from Salt Lake City. His brother Noah went on to play college baseball at the University of Arizona, and and it looks like Gavin followed him there to finish his high school career at regional powerhouse Hamilton High School in Chandler, a southern suburb of Phoenix. Anyways, the Diamondbacks usually prefer to go hit over power with their prep bats, as evidenced by names like Jordan Lawlar (2021), Corbin Carroll (2019), Alek Thomas (2018), and Matt McLain (2018), but they did briefly break that trend with A.J. Vukovich in 2020. Gavin Turley is a supreme athlete that has shown some of the best raw tools in the class, showing plus in a smatter of different areas. He's a right handed hitter with an extremely loose, busy operation at the plate, unleashing powerful swings that produce big time exit velocities. His hit tool has been less consistent and the barrel accuracy is not always there, but he has had stretches where he gets hot and looks like a surefire first round pick. Turley has also turned in some plus-plus run times and shows big arm strength, giving him huge upside in the field just like at the plate, though he does need refinement out there and may end up in right field rather than center. Arizona would need to show some patience in developing him, but the payoff could be huge in a five tool player that can significantly impact the game in multiple areas. Turley may come into play with Arizona's CBA pick at #34 or their second round pick at #43 if they're feeling aggressive, but by the time they pick again at #82, it might be prohibitively expensive to sign him away from an Oregon State commitment should he still be on the board.
Other options: C Daniel Susac (Arizona via Roseville, CA), 3B Jacob Berry (Louisiana State via Queen Creek, AZ), OF Justin Crawford (Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas, NV), OF Mason Neville (Basic HS, Henderson, NV), OF Joe Lampe (Arizona State via Petaluma, CA)

Colorado Rockies: RHP Riley Cornelio, Texas Christian
Hometown: Monument, Colorado. My rank: unranked.
There is some real talent from the Front Range in the big leagues today, mostly on the mound in Kevin Gausman (Centennial), Marco Gonzales (Fort Collins), Kyle Freeland (Denver), Mark Melancon (Golden), and the Rogers twins (Littleton). The region's top two prospects this spring, at least that I am aware of, are both pitchers as well, though both headed to Texas for college as neither Colorado, Colorado State, Denver, nor Wyoming offer baseball. While Andrew Morris has taken over as the Friday night starter at Texas Tech, Riley Cornelio is seeing his first ever consistent innings at TCU after combining for just 17.2 between his freshman and sophomore seasons. Cornelio was a highly touted recruit out of Pine Creek High School on the far north side of Colorado Springs, earning some draft buzz but ultimately fulfilling his commitment to the Horned Frogs. He was off to a strong start in 2022 with a 2.87 ERA through mid-April, but has been a bit more human lately and now sits at 4.28. The 6'3" righty has explosive stuff in a fastball that's been up to 97, a sharp breaking ball, and a decent changeup, and his command has improved considerably during his time in Fort Worth as he's toned down his high effort delivery. There are more starter traits here than there were out of high school, though he's old for a junior and will turn 22 before the draft. If the Rockies wanted to throw him back in the bullpen, the stuff could play up and they wouldn't have to worry as much about his still-inconsistent command. He fits in the fourth to sixth round range and could be an under slot candidate given his age.
Other options: RHP Andrew Morris (Texas Tech via Boulder, CO), OF Gavin Turley (Hamilton HS, AZ via Midway, UT), SS Andrew Pintar (Brigham Young via Spanish Fork, UT), 3B Skyler Messinger (Texas via Niwot, CO), OF Justin Boyd (Oregon State via Parker, CO)

Houston Astros: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech
Hometown: Willis, TX. My rank: #99.
Usually, the Houston area is teeming with talent, both in the prep ranks and in players that left for school. A few years ago, the Cypress Ranch High School varsity team had four players that would go on to be top fifty picks – JJ Goss (Rays), Matthew Thompson (White Sox), Colton Cowser (Orioles), and Ty Madden (Tigers). That's not so much the case this year, with most of the talent in the state hailing from DFW, San Antonio, and even the Permian Basin. One name from Southeast Texas has taken a step forward this year, though, and that is Brandon Birdsell. A native of Willis, which is about 45 minutes north of downtown Houston on I-45 just past Conroe, Birdsell has been all over the state. He spent his freshman season pitching sparingly at Texas A&M, then transferred to San Jacinto JC in Houston where his stock exploded. However, he went unselected in the five round draft in 2020 and moved on to Texas Tech, where he continued to receive draft buzz before shoulder problems ended his season prematurely. Healthy in 2022, he's pitching as well as ever and has worked his way back into discussion in the top couple of rounds. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and regularly tops out in the upper 90's, coming from a short arm action that hides the ball well and helps him command it. His power slider flashes plus in the mid to upper 80's, and he also flips in an occasional curveball and changeup as well. It's a full starter's arsenal, and the Astros develop pitching at a high level. He turned 22 in March and is on the older side, but that should hardly be a problem given how he's thrown when healthy. As of now, the Astros' first shot at him will probably be with their third round pick at #103, but if he continues to throw well into the postseason, he may not be available there.
Other options: SS Gavin Guidry (Barbe HS, Lake Charles, LA), SS Trey Faltine (Texas via Richmond, TX), RHP Cole Phillips (Boerne HS, TX), OF Jared McKenzie (Baylor via Round Rock, TX), C Silas Ardoin (Texas via Moss Bluff, LA)

Los Angeles Angels: RHP Riley Kelly, Tustin HS, CA
Hometown: Santa Ana, CA. My rank: #61.
The Angels' first love is college arms, but Orange County is a bit light on those this year. Instead, we'll go with a local pop up prospect in Riley Kelly, who has had a very loud spring for Tustin High School a few miles down I-5 from Angel Stadium. A projectable 6'4" righty, his fastball has crept up to around 90 and touched 94 this spring, with more in the tank for sure. His bread and butter, though, is his hammer curveball, which posts huge spin rates and ridiculous vertical drop. Many high schoolers that are lucky enough to possess electric breaking balls struggle to command them, but Kelly has shown good feel to spot it. There is a lot of work to be done for the tall righty, who currently comes from a high, short release point with mediocre extension, but if the Angels believe in their pitching development, they might be able to unlock a lot by tweaking his mechanics. Very few kids can spin the ball like Kelly can and it's hard to teach something like that, so if he's still in play when the Angels pick at #89, it could be an over slot opportunity. He's committed to UC Irvine, so he may stay in Orange County anyways.
Other options: SS Mikey Romero (Orange Lutheran HS via Menifee, CA), 3B Jacob Reimer (Yucaipa HS, CA), SS Jordan Sprinkle (UC Santa Barbara via Palm Springs, CA), RHP Max Rajcic (UCLA via Fullerton, CA), SS D'Andre Smith (USC via Diamond Bar, CA)

Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Kassius Thomas, Sierra Canyon HS, Chatsworth, CA
Hometown: Northridge, CA. My rank: #103.
Sierra Canyon High School in the San Fernando Valley has not one but two pitchers in its rotation that could go in the top couple of rounds this spring in Jaden Noot and Kassius Thomas. We'll give the Dodgers a shot at Thomas, who has impressed evaluators with a strong spring and is looking at roughly a third round selection, where Los Angeles holds the 105th overall pick. He would likely require an above slot bonus to sign away from a Duke commitment there, but the Dodgers likely would not pull the trigger with their first pick at #40. Thomas is a 6'1" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that has regularly topped out around 95 this spring, flashing a plus slider as well as a curveball and changeup that really round out his arsenal nicely. He has feel for all four pitches, with a quick arm that portends further velocity gains as he gets stronger. The Northridge native can battle his mechanics at times, losing the strike zone and occasionally getting around his breaking stuff, but the Dodgers develop pitching extremely well and I expect that wouldn't be an issue for their staff. There's some real upside here as a mid-rotation starter, especially if a team like the Dodgers gets their hands on him.
Other options: RHP Jaden Noot (Sierra Canyon HS, CA), RHP Luis Ramirez (Long Beach State via East Los Angeles, CA), RHP Marcus Johnson (Duke via Fontana, CA), RHP/UT Austin Charles (Stockdale HS, Bakersfield, CA), 3B Jacob Reimer (Yucaipa HS, CA)

Oakland Athletics: OF Dylan Beavers, California
Hometown: Paso Robles, CA. My rank: #17.
Dylan Beavers grew up in Paso Robles and attended high school just south of there at Mission College Prep in San Luis Obispo, then turned around and headed north to the East Bay for college. He fits in with recent A's picks like Denzel Clarke, Max Muncy, and Logan Davidson as a strong athlete with a track record of performance. Beavers has consistently tapped above average raw power in from the left side in games with a smooth, loose swing, also showing more patience this spring and getting good pitches to hit. There is some swing and miss in his game due to his lanky, 6'4" frame and some inconsistencies in his swing mechanics, but youth is on his side as he won't turn 21 until August and has that much extra time to develop. A good athlete with a strong arm, he has a chance to stick in center field and become a true five tool player. There is a ton of upside here, especially for a college bat, and his overall game is pretty similar to James Madison's Chase DeLauter. Both are young for the class, tall left handed hitters with unorthodox swing mechanics but big power, and good runners that could be well above average defenders in right field. The main difference, though, is that DeLauter hit .298/.397/.589 in the Cape Cod League while Beavers managed just a .233/.286/.300 line. The A's pick at #19 this year and that's the perfect spot to swipe up the Cal product.
Other options: OF Brock Jones (Stanford via Fresno, CA), OF Payton Brennan (Rocklin HS, CA), C Malcolm Moore (McClatchy HS, Sacramento, CA), LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State via Capay, CA), OF Joe Lampe (Arizona State via Petaluma, CA)

San Diego Padres: RHP Tyler Bremner, Scripps Ranch HS, San Diego, CA
Hometown: San Diego, CA. My rank: #140.
The Padres love prep talent, especially prep bats, but most of the talent to come out of the San Diego area in this class is on the college side. Tyler Bremner is the top prospect on the prep side coming out of Scripps Ranch High School on the north side of the city, and he could definitely make sense for the Friars around the middle of day two if they want to buy him out of a UC Santa Barbara commitment. Bremner is an athletic 6'1" right hander that stands out more for projection than the present product. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 94, adding a curveball and a changeup. The fastball is his best pitch, as he gets good extension down the mound and the pitch can really jump on hitters. As he adds velocity, it could become a plus pitch in time. His curveball is a bit behind, with slurvy action and not much present bite, while his changeup is an average pitch. The Padres would be buying Bremner's athleticism, which helps him stay extremely loose in his delivery and throw strikes. They'll hope that they can work with the considerable raw talent to sharpen those offspeed pitches and turn him into an impact starting pitcher.
Other options: OF Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt via Encinitas, CA), LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego via San Diego, CA), OF Anthony Hall (Oregon via San Diego, CA), RHP Derek Diamond (Mississippi via Ramona, CA), RHP Troy Melton (San Diego State via Anaheim, CA)

San Francisco Giants: OF Henry Bolte, Palo Alto HS, CA
Hometown: Palo Alto, CA. My rank: #42.
The Giants already have a proud Palo Alto High School alum on their roster in Joc Pederson, and they could add another in Henry Bolte, a favorite of West Coast scouts (or Oregon SS Josh Kasevich, who figures to go in the second or third round). Bolte has been a slow and steady riser in this class, showing off a wide variety of impact tools that have teams interested as early as the back of the first round. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Texas commitment, but if the Giants want to keep him home, pick #30 seems early enough that it shouldn't require too big of an over slot bonus. He's a big kid at 6'3", showing off plus power when he turns on one but also the ability to go the other way with authority. He's still learning how to apply it as a full package and put loft under his hits, but he's improving and should continue to do so in a player development system as strong as the Giants'. Bolte is also a plus runner that might have a chance to stick in center field if he doesn't slow down as he fills out. There's real upside here as an impact hitter that could hit 20+ home runs a year and steal a few bases while playing good defense.
Other options: LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State via Capay, CA), OF Brock Jones (Stanford via Fresno, CA), SS Josh Kasevich (Oregon via Palo Alto, CA), OF Dylan Beavers (California via Paso Robles, CA), OF Payton Brennan (Rocklin HS, CA)

Seattle Mariners: RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS, WA
Hometown: Bainbridge Island, WA. My rank: #37.
JR Ritchie probably fits somewhere between the Mariners' first two picks (#21 and #58), but high school pitchers can be very unpredictable and it wouldn't surprise me to see Seattle jump on him early or catch him in the second round and give him a big over slot bonus. They've tended towards college pitchers lately and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes or Trystan Vrieling could be also be options in the first and second/third rounds, respectively. But Ritchie might be too good to pass up, especially if he's available in the second round and they have pool space to pay him a multi-million dollar bonus to cross the Puget Sound from Bainbridge Island. The 6'2" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to around 97, getting some hop on the pitch as well. His best pitch is a plus slider that has been recalled by many of the top prep bats in the class as one of the best breaking balls they'd seen on the showcase circuit, and he also adds a curveball and a changeup that he can locate. Ritchie is ultra athletic and gets down the mound well, with the command to make everything play up. He's also a very smart kid that understands the art of pitching and knows what he needs to do to get better, so he could develop quickly. The one drawback to his profile is his age, as he turns 19 in June, but he also brings the maturity and baseball IQ that comes with an older prospect. He is committed to UCLA and will be eligible as a sophomore in 2024 if he goes that route.
Other options: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga via Eagle, ID), RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga via Kennewick, WA), SS Carter Young (Vanderbilt via Selah, WA), RHP Jackson Cox (Toutle Lake HS, Toutle, WA), OF Jacob Melton (Oregon State via Medford, OR)

Texas Rangers: 3B Jayson Jones, Braswell HS, Little Elm, TX
Hometown: Savannah, TX. My rank: #78.
The Rangers do not pick between #3 and #109, which made this a difficult exercise by ruling out two players I think they would love in Jett Williams (Rockwall-Heath HS) and Peyton Graham (Waxahachie native at Oklahoma). We will go with Jayson Jones, who attends Braswell High School up on US 380 in Little Elm, the far northern tip of the rapidly expanding Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. He's not quite as neat a fit as Williams or Graham because Texas does prefer athleticism and positional flexibility, but they like big power as well and Jones has plenty of it. In fact, the 6'2" slugger generates as much torque as any high schooler in recent memory, with ridiculous strength and bat speed that could blow an old baseball to pieces if the seams were coming loose. That alone makes him an extremely intriguing prospect, though the rest of his offensive game has regressed a little bit. Earlier in his high school career, he showed a relatively balanced approach at the plate and performed well against high end pitching, but starting this past summer he got too power conscious and began pulling off balls and has never quite recovered that approach. Because of that, I'm not convinced he'll ever be able to handle pro pitching and get to his power. The Rangers would be taking a big risk on the Arkansas commit, but you simply cannot develop the kind of raw power he possesses and they could try to work out the rest. They took a similar chance on a falling prep bat last year in Ian Moller and Jones comes into play in the third round for them. On the defensive side, Jones actually moves well for his size and should be able to stick at third base, where his cannon arm would be an asset.
Other options: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech via San Antonio, TX), RHP Jacob Meador (Dallas Baptist via Burleson, TX), OF Jace Grady (Dallas Baptist via Elgin, TX), RHP Chase Shores (Legacy HS, Midland, TX), OF Brenner Cox (Rock Hill HS, Prosper, TX)