The Marlins' system is in a much better spot than it was a year ago, and that's in large part due to pitching success at High A Jupiter, where Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers all took big steps forward. The acquisitions of Sixto Sanchez, Lewin Diaz, Jesus Sanchez, and Jazz Chisholm, plus the drafting of JJ Bleday, have been huge as well, and Sixto in particular leads the system as a potential true ace. Meanwhile, the position player group has been a really interesting one. Just since the end of the 2018 season, they have spent over $19 million to reel in five amateur hitters: Bleday ($6.67M), Victor Victor Mesa ($5.25M), Jose Salas ($2.8M), Nasim Nunez ($2.2M), and Kameron Misner ($2.12M). They'll really be leaning on those players to carry the system from a hitting perspective, because their aggressive approach of pushing young, raw hitters through the minors has likely hurt the development of highly regarded amateurs like Connor Scott and Will Banfield, the two of whom they spent nearly $6 million on in the 2018 draft.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes*, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Clinton LumberKings, short season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*AAA affiliate will move from New Orleans, LA to Wichita, KS in 2020
Catcher
- Will Banfield (2020 Age: 20): High school catchers are the riskiest demographic to draft from, but the Marlins had success in the past with J.T. Realmuto so they grabbed Atlanta-area high schooler Will Banfield in the competitive balance round in 2018 and pushed him aggressively to Class A in his pro debut. Personally, I don't think that was the best decision, and in 2019 he slashed just .199/.252/.310 with nine home runs and a 121/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Class A Clinton. Banfield has good power in his right handed swing, but he struggled with swing and miss even in high school and his bat flat out wasn't ready for South Atlantic League pitching in his age-19 season. His glove, on the flip side, was, and his cannon arm means he should be an above average defensive catcher at the major league level. The bat will take patience, though, as he learns to find the strike zone and tap that power consistently, and that will probably take more time than the Marlins had hoped. He'll be just 20 for all of 2020, so if I were them, I'd have Banfield repeat Class A.
- Keep an eye on: Nick Fortes, Arquimedes Cumana
Corner Infield
- Lewin Diaz (2020 Age: 23): It's been a long time coming for Diaz, who signed with the Twins for $1.3 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, but 2019 was finally the breakout year everyone was waiting for. Despite being shipped to the Marlins midway through the season for Sergio Romo, he slashed .270/.321/.530 with 27 home runs and a 91/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games between High A and AA. Diaz's power is very, very real, as he uses his 6'4" frame and explosive left handed swing to drive the ball to all fields. He's an aggressive hitter who usually does not get deep enough into the count to draw walks, but he also has very good feel for the barrel that helps him keep his strikeout rates very low for a power hitter. That gives him a very favorable outlook at the next level if he can get over that last hump, and he could hit 30+ home runs annually. Defensively, he's limited to first base, but the bat should profile there.
- Evan Edwards (2020 Age: 22-23): The Marlins took Edwards as an under slot senior sign in the fourth round out of NC State in 2019, but a successful pro debut means he might be more than just a money saver. In extensive action, he hit .281/.357/.442 with nine home runs and an 83/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at Class A Clinton, showing that the big raw power he had in college will play up in pro ball. He struck out in 25.7% of his plate appearances up at Clinton, which is a bit high, but I'd actually take that if I'm the Marlins. He has a long swing and there were questions as to how that would be exploited in pro ball, so high strikeout rates were already expected, and Class A is a fairly aggressive assignment for a player in his pro debut. The pressure will be on Edwards' bat to continue to produce, as he's a first baseman only, but I'm interested to see how he fares in a full season in 2020.
- Nic Ready (2020 Age: 23): You could say it's been a good year for Nic Ready. He put up a big senior year for the Air Force Academy in the spring, graduated and was personally congratulated by President Trump in May, then got drafted by the Marlins in the 23rd round in June. It didn't stop there, though, as he went on to slash .263/.311/.508 with ten home runs and an 82/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games at short season Batavia, also smacking 30 doubles and a pair of triples. He has a long swing that led to an elevated strikeout rate in pro ball, but he is also adept at finding the barrel and can spray deep line drives all over the park with ease. He'll have to shorten up his swing to keep from being exploited by higher level pitching, but it's as good of a start as you can have and with his natural Air Force work ethic, he's a good bet to outplay his draft position.
- Keep an eye on: Joe Dunand, Lazaro Alonso
Middle Infield
- Jazz Chisholm (2020 Age: 22): Chisholm is part of the new wave of Bahamian talent hitting pro ball, and so far, he might already be the best player from the islands since Andre Rodgers of the 1960's Giants, Cubs, and Pirates. Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, he was shipped to Miami in 2019 for Zac Gallen during a season in which he slashed .220/.321/.441 with 21 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 147/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between the two AA affiliates. Despite standing just 5'11", he's an extra base machine with his explosive swing, which produces lots of hard contact to all fields. The end result is a lot of home run power and balls in the gaps, which he can leg out with his above average speed. The one thing holding Chisholm back offensively is his tendency to swing and miss, which is a product of his big swing. He does have the strike zone judgement to draw his share of walks, so he really needs to just focus on finding the barrel more and may need to tone down his big uppercut. He's also a good defensive shortstop, so he has the potential to impact the game on both sides of the ball. Whether he can make enough contact is really the only thing between him and a ceiling of 20-25 home runs with good on-base percentages.
- Jose Devers (2020 Age: 20): We might have all made up our minds about the Giancarlo Stanton trade, but Jose Devers, who had just turned 18 when he was shipped from New York to Miami as part of the return, means we'll have to wait a little longer. In 2019, he slashed .322/.391/.390 with eight stolen bases and a 26/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games between Class A Clinton, High A Jupiter, and complex level rehab work despite missing time with groin and forearm issues. Devers is extremely advanced for his age, showing exceptional contact ability even against pitchers much older than himself, and it's a pretty safe bet that he'll be able to hit his way up to the majors. His swing is very contact-oriented and at a listed 155 pounds, he doesn't hit for a ton of impact, so the Marlins will want Devers to continue to add weight and grow into his 6' frame so he can eventually be a threat for lots of doubles and triples with his speed. He's a very good defender at shortstop and could be a Gold Glover if he's forced over to second base, taking pressure off his bat, and he'll play all of 2020 at just 20 years old.
- Nasim Nunez (2020 Age: 19): The Marlins drafted Nunez out of an Atlanta-area high school in the second round in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal for $2.2 million. Personally, I think that's a lot to spend on a high schooler whose bat is almost completely unproven, but the Marlins will hope he takes a similar path to Jose Devers. In his pro debut, Nunez slashed .200/.327/.238 with 28 stolen bases and a 48/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Batavia, showing no power whatsoever but also better plate discipline than expected. Nunez was drafted for his glove, and he might be the best defensive shortstop in the system, so there is very little pressure on the bat for the 5'9" switch hitter. That said, he still needs to hit a little, and while the high walk rate is a nice start, he's going to have to learn to drive the ball more and start to hit for some real impact, even if it's just doubles and triples power. He's a great runner who stole 28 bases in 30 tries in complex ball, so getting on base will be key if he wants to maximize his value.
- Jose Salas (2020 Age: 17): It will probably be a few years before we even know what kind of prospect Salas is, but the Marlins liked his upside enough that they signed him out of Venezuela for $2.8 million in 2019. Born in 2003, he won't even turn 17 until April, and it's the athleticism that the Marlins are buying more than anything else. He's fast, produces some good power from both sides of the plate, has a good approach, and is athletic if somewhat raw at shortstop. There's a lot to teach, but since they got him this young, the Marlins also hope there's a lot of room to grow.
- Keep an eye on: Gosuke Katoh, Bryson Brigman, Riley Mahan, Osiris Johnson
Outfield
- Jesus Sanchez (2020 Age: 22): Lewis Brinson is looking like a bust now 200+ games into his big league career, but fortunately, the Marlins do have a nice crop of young outfielders coming up the pipeline behind him. Jesus Sanchez, acquired from the Rays in the Nick Anderson trade at the 2019 deadline, might be the next to break into the majors after slashing .260/.325/.398 with 13 home runs and a 100/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between AA and AAA this year. Big and strong at 6'3", he's more concerned with just spraying line drives around and making consistent hard contact, but it might do him good to start lifting the ball just a little bit more to tap his above average raw power. He's a very competent hitter that has no problem finding the barrel, even against advanced pitching, and if he tries to tap that power a little more, he could hit 15-20 or more home runs annually with good on-base percentages. He also profiles well in right field with sound defense and a good arm.
- Monte Harrison (2020 Age: 24-25): I see a lot of shades of Lewis Brinson here. Harrison, who is just over a year younger, is also a 6'3" right handed hitter with tools all over the place who hasn't quite put it together yet. Drafted in the second round out of a Kansas City-area high school way back in 2014, Harrison hit .270/.351/.441 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 74/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games in 2019, mostly at AAA New Orleans with a brief rehab stint at High A Jupiter. He generates a lot of power from an explosive right handed swing, though with that power comes a lot of swing and miss, and in fact, his 215 strikeouts in 2018 led the minor leagues that year. He's managed to cut his strikeout rate just a bit in 2019, but in order to get over the hump in the majors, there will be more work to do. Fortunately, Harrison has a lot of other traits to like, including his plus speed and exceptional arm strength from the outfield. He's very close to major league ready, and despite turning 25 next season, he maintains a high ceiling if he can figure out how to put the last few pieces together.
- JJ Bleday (2020 Age: 22): Bleday had a huge breakout junior season at Vanderbilt, where he led Division I baseball with 27 home runs despite facing the gauntlet of SEC pitching, and he rode that to being drafted fourth overall by the Marlins in 2019. Aggressively pushed to High A Jupiter to start his career, he started slow but heated up as he got his footing, finishing with a .257/.311/.379 slash line, three home runs, and a 29/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games. Bleday is pretty much as close as you'll find to a complete hitter straight out of college, as he combines tremendous feel for the barrel with great raw power to hit lots and lots of home runs against advanced pitching. Defensively, he's more or less average in right field, but his strong arm helps him provide at least some value out there. He should move quickly and, with a little luck, he could be in the big leagues at some point in 2020. His ceiling is 35-40 home runs annually with good on-base percentages – i.e., a true middle of the order hitter.
- Victor Victor Mesa (2020 Age: 23-24): Mesa was one of the most hyped international prospects this year after defecting from Cuba, and he and his younger brother Victor signed with the Marlins shortly thereafter, the elder brother getting a whopping $5.25 million. Unfortunately, his pro career hasn't gone as planned so far, as he hit just .235/.274/.263 with 18 stolen bases and a 64/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville. He didn't have much of a problem making contact against quality pitching, but the problem was that he rarely found the barrel and was more likely to roll over a ground ball or pop up than he was to really drive one. He'll need to take a step back and really work on his pitch recognition and hand eye coordination, because even though he put up slap hitter numbers, he doesn't have a slap hitter swing. At this point, he probably looks like more of a fourth outfielder, but he's also just 116 games into his pro career and he has a chance to show that 2019 was just growing pains, not his true talent level. He is exceptional in the outfield with speed, instincts, and a great arm, and that (plus the signing bonus) buys the bat a lot of time.
- Kameron Misner (2020 Age: 22): Misner had an enigmatic career at Missouri, hitting really, really well most of the time until slumping hard in SEC play in his junior year. He had previously positioned himself to potentially go somewhere in the top half of the first round, but the SEC skid dropped him to the competitive balance round, where the Marlins picked him up with the 35th pick in 2019. In his pro debut, he hit .270/.388/.362 with a pair of home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 42/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and Class A Clinton, which was at least a nice sign in a small sample even if he didn't hit for much power. Misner is a tooled up prospect who really looks like a ballplayer at 6'4" with good power, speed, and defense. He was able to get to that power consistently against weaker non-conference opponents in both 2018 and 2019, but a broken foot kept him out of SEC play in 2018 and he had that slump in 2019, so he came into the draft completely unproven against higher level pitching. He did a good job of keeping that strike zone at least reasonably down in pro ball and he drew a lot of walks, and if he can pull it together by finding his power stroke in 2020, this could look like a steal for Miami with Misner's upside of 25-30 home runs annually with plenty of stolen bases and good defense.
- Connor Scott (2020 Age: 20): Miami drafted Scott in the middle of the first round out of a Tampa high school in 2018, though he hasn't quite figured it out in pro ball as the Marlins have pushed him aggressively. In 2019, he slashed .248/.310/.359 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 117/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter as his baseball skills haven't quite caught up to his physical tools. Long and lanky at 6'4", he's more of a line drive hitter that relies on his good feel for the barrel to hit for impact at the plate, at least for now. There may be some power to tap into as he adds strength and leverage in his swing, but it hasn't shown up yet and I don't think the Marlins aggressively pushing him to High A as a teenager is going to help. Meanwhile, he's a great athlete with a ton of speed and a strong arm that could make him a plus defensive center fielder in time, and it's already helping him steal bases. The glove and high draft position will by the bat time, and he remains a breakout candidate even after the so-so 2019.
- Peyton Burdick (2020 Age: 23): Burdick absolutely mashed as a Wright State redshirt junior in 2019, slashing an unbelievable .407/.538/.729 against the Raiders' relatively weak Horizon League schedule, and the Marlins picked him up in the third round with hopes that he could make the leap up to pro ball and continue hitting for impact. As it turns out, he could, and his exceptional pro debut saw him slash .308/.407/.542 with eleven home runs and a 72/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, mostly at Class A Clinton. Burdick turns 23 right at the start of spring training, so he's not exactly the youngest prospect around, but he's extremely well everywhere he's gone and it wouldn't be smart to bet against his bat. He generates above average raw power with great feel for the barrel from the right side, and while he'll probably have a good amount of swing and miss at first while he transitions up from Horizon League pitching, he should cut it down reasonably going forward. To me, he looks like a 20-25 homer bat with decent on-base percentages, which would be enough to start in left field if he can get there.
- Victor Mesa Jr. (2020 Age: 18): Victor Mesa Jr. joined his older brother Victor Victor Mesa in defecting from Cuba last year, and while Victor Victor got $5.25 million, the younger Victor Jr. landed a nice $1 million bonus from the same Marlins. And while Victor Victor disappointed in his pro debut, Victor Jr. actually exceeded expectations, slashing .284/.366/.398 with a home run, seven stolen bases, and a 29/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League. He's not too dissimilar of a hitter from Jose Devers in that he has great feel for the barrel and the strike zone at a very young age, and while he doesn't hit for much power at present, he has enough athleticism and strength to eventually hit for average power despite standing just 5'11". He will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old, and with the way the Marlins like to push their young prospects, he could be in the majors at a very young age if he keeps hitting the way he's hitting and adds some power. However, unlike his brother, his defense plays closer to average, so his bat will have to carry him up.
- Keep an eye on: Brian Miller, Stone Garrett, Tristan Pompey, Jerar Encarnacion, J.D. Orr
Starting Pitching
- Sixto Sanchez (2020 Age: 21-22): Sixto was part of the return for J.T. Realmuto last offseason, and few minor league pitchers have a higher ceiling than he does. In his first season in the Marlins system, he posted a 2.76 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 103/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville, starting a bit slow but finishing strong with a 0.90 ERA and a 35/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 40.1 innings over his final seven starts. Sixto is truly an elite talent, combining plus stuff with plus command in a way that very few other pitchers can. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, touching 100, and he can put some sink on it when he wants to to get lots of ground ball outs. His curve is a hammer and his changeup misses bats as well, and since he can put them where he wants them, they all play up. Unfortunately, the one downside in Sanchez's profile is health – at six feet tall, he's a bit undersized, and he missed time with elbow problems in 2018. He set a career high with 114 innings in 2019, which is both good news and bad news in that he proved he was healthy after those elbow problems but also bad news in that he'd never even topped 95 innings before. If Sixto can get past those durability concerns, he has true ace potential, and I think he'll post great numbers no matter what, just perhaps in smaller samples if he ends up breaking down.
- Sterling Sharp (2020 Age: 24-25): The Nationals kind of surprisingly left Sharp unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft, and the Marlins scooped him up with the third pick a few weeks ago. That means after posting a 3.53 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 52/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings between AA and some lower level rehab work, Sharp will have to spend the entire season on the Marlins' active major league roster or else they'll have to send him back. Sharp should have very little trouble sticking in the majors, as he's a very advanced arm who stands out for his athleticism, control, and ability to sink his low 90's fastball for consistent ground ball outs. He also adds a decent slider and a good changeup, an overall average arsenal that the Marlins will hope plays up due to his feel for pitching. Overall, it's a #4 starter projection, though he'll likely pitch in the bullpen in 2020.
- Nick Neidert (2020 Age: 23): Neidert, a Mariners second rounder out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, has worked his way up slowly but with good numbers along the way, though a knee injury slowed him down in 2019. Overall, he had a 4.67 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 46/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 innings between High A Jupiter, AAA New Orleans, and complex level rehab work, the first time he'd ever had an ERA above 3.45 or a WHIP above 1.17. Acquired from Seattle as part of the return for Dee Gordon in 2017, Neidert is perhaps the most advanced pitcher in the system after from Sixto Sanchez, as he makes solid stuff play up great command and overall feel for mixing his pitches. He throws a lot to mid 90's fastball, adds a decent curve that stands out more for his ability to locate it than its actual movement, and gets most of his outs with a great changeup. His command wasn't quite as sharp in 2019 after the knee injury, and that exposed his overall arsenal a bit, so getting back to that plus command will help him become a #4 or #5 starter in the very near future.
- Braxton Garrett (2020 Age: 22-23): The Marlins picked up Garrett with the seventh overall pick in the 2016 draft out of a Northern Alabama high school, but he went down with Tommy John surgery just four starts into his pro career and missed most of 2017 and all of 2018. Returning in 2019, almost three years after he was drafted, he didn't miss a beat and posted a 3.54 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 119/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings, mostly at High A Jupiter with one rough start at AA Jacksonville. Garrett is a very balanced pitcher with good stuff and good command, though aside from a great curveball that functions as his out pitch, nothing stands out as plus. He sits in the low 90's and adds an advanced changeup, and while his command was a bit spotty in 2019, he had a very good feel for the strike zone in high school and he should regain that feel as he gets farther away from all that time off. Garrett has the ceiling of a #2 or a #3 starter, though that is contingent of him getting back to hitting his spots and filling up the strike zone, and a very good chance of becoming at least a #4.
- Edward Cabrera (2020 Age: 22): Perhaps the biggest breakout star in the system, Cabrera was a little known prospect until a solid 2018 at Class A (4.22 ERA, 93/42 K/BB) at least put him on the map. Then in 2019, the Dominican prospect posted a 2.23 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 116/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville. He sits in the mid 90's with his running fastball, which is his best pitch, and he took a step forward in 2019 because he got more consistent with his command of the pitch. His slider is coming along as he continues to refine the pitch, and his changeup has come along as well. The next steps will be to just continue to refine and refine, and he'll need to prove his durability as well with a career high of just 100.1 innings in 2018. Still, with a little more refinement, his fastball should be enough to lead the way for a career as a #3 or #4 starter.
- Trevor Rogers (2020 Age: 22): It took Rogers a bit to find his footing in pro ball, as he didn't pitch in 2017 after being drafted in the middle of the first round out of a New Mexico high school, then struggled to a 5.82 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A in 2018. However, he figured it out in 2019, posting a 2.90 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 150/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 136.1 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville, the biggest difference, like Cabrera, being taking a big step forward with his command. He's a 6'6" lefty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and that velocity comes pretty easily as he doesn't throw with much effort. The rest of his arsenal is beginning to take shape with a curveball, a slider/cutter, and a changeup, which are all better than when he was drafted but which still need more refinement. With his command now safely above average, the Marlins can have him focus on those secondary pitches and hopefully reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.
- Humberto Mejia (2020 Age: 23): Mejia was never a top prospect, and that's why he's moved very slowly through the system since signing for $50,000 out of Panama in 2013, but he's also performed very well at every stop and has yet to really be challenged. In 2019, he finally reached full season ball and posted a 2.09 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 89/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball from a projectable 6'3" frame, and he can get outs with his curve and his changeup because he commands them well. The overall package is pretty average, but he's passed every test the Marlins have given him, so it will be interesting to see how he potentially handles the upper minors in 2020, which will be his age-23 season. If it clicks, he could be a #4 starter.
- Evan Fitterer (2020 Age: 19-20): Despite turning 19 shortly after the 2019 draft, the Marlins took Fitterer in the fifth round out of his Southern California high school then signed him to an over slot $1.5 million deal. Fitterer then posted a 2.38 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, nothing that really changes his outlook. He's a balanced pitcher for his age, one who sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adds a pair of breaking balls that both look good at times, and a changeup that's pretty advanced for a high school pitcher. He usually commands all four pitches pretty well, and with a projectable 6'3" frame, he has all the building blocks in place for the Marlins to work with. Going forward, he'll just need to get more consistent with everything and continue to learn himself as a pitcher. High ceiling, low floor, and a lot of time to figure it out.
- Keep an eye on: Robert Dugger, Cody Poteet, Daniel Castano, Will Stewart, Delvis Alegre
Relief Pitching
- Jorge Guzman (2020 Age: 24): The Dominican flamethrower has already been traded twice, once from Houston to New York in the Brian McCann deal of 2016 and then, more notably, as the prospect with the highest upside in the Giancarlo Stanton trade a year later. In 2019, Guzman posted a 3.50 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 127/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 138.2 innings at AA Jacksonville, which was just enough to remain in the rotation for now but not enough to add any more confidence that he won't eventually end up in the bullpen. With multiple starting pitching prospects taking a big step forward at High A in 2019 and the acquisition of Sterling Sharp, Guzman will probably end up the odd man out when looking for a rotation spot, but he could be a real force in the bullpen. He sits consistently in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, and his short arm action makes it really difficult to pick the ball up out of his hand. His slider stands out more for its mid to upper 80's velocity than for its movement, and his changeup has some nice fade, but his inability to throw strikes has kept him from putting it all together as a starter. Set to play in his age-24 season, the command probably won't ever get close to average, so at this point he's probably best off running his fastball up to 100 in the bullpen while missing bats with that hard slider. He could be up in 2020 if the Marlins go that route.
- Jordan Holloway (2020 Age: 23-24): A 20th round draft pick out of a Denver-area high school in 2014, Holloway probably finds himself in about the same spot as Guzman after posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 93/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings at High A Jupiter. While he's still a starter, many of his teammates took steps forward that he couldn't match, and his two plus pitches likely fit better in a relief role at this point. Like Guzman, he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, though his breaking ball of choice is a curveball with really nice two-plane movement. Though he has a relatively easy delivery with a quick arm like Guzman's, he also struggles to throw strikes, and that has made his stuff play down. As a fastball/curveball reliever, he could work his way up and become a 7th or 8th inning guy.
- Sean Guenther (2020 Age: 24): The Marlins picked up Guenther as a strike throwing seventh rounder out of Notre Dame in 2017, but his average stuff wasn't quite enough to cut it as a starter in pro ball, so the organization bumped him to the bullpen in 2019 and the early returns are great. Often used for multiple innings at a time, the 5'11" lefty posted a 2.02 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.1 innings at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter, using a high overhand delivery to get some added deception on his pitches. His fastball has bumped up into the low 90's, and while he used two breaking balls as a starter, I was unable to find if he's focused on one as a reliever but I'd have to guess he has. His plus command makes everything play up, and he could work his way up as a middle reliever.
- Keep an eye on: Tommy Eveld, Colton Hock, Jeff Lindgren
Showing posts with label Trevor Rogers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trevor Rogers. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Saturday, July 1, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Miami Marlins
First 5 rounds: Trevor Rogers (1-13), Brian Miller (CBA-36), Joe Dunand (2-51), Riley Mahan (3-89), Colton Hock (4-119), Ryan Lillie (5-149)
Also notable: Taylor Braley (6-179), Brady Puckett (15-449), Elliott Barzilli (32-959), Tyler Holton (35-1049)
The Marlins have arguably baseball's most barren farm system, and with three of the first 51 picks, they had a chance to restock it with the draft. Unfortunately, I think they blew that opportunity, and their farm system won't be getting the big boost it could have had. Though they took a high school pitcher with their first pick, Miami drafted just four high school players with their 41 picks, opting for three JuCo players and 34 college guys.
1-13: LHP Trevor Rogers (my rank: 25)
With guys like J.B. Bukauskas (ranked #6 on my list), Alex Faedo (#11), Jeren Kendall (#13), Nick Pratto (#14), Sam Carlson (#15), and many others left on the board, the Marlins had a plethora of great options for the thirteenth pick. Instead, they took high risk high school lefty Trevor Rogers with their first round pick, a player who I have nothing against but wouldn't consider this early in the draft. Rogers has a massive gap between his ceiling and his floor, as he could be a top of the rotation starter, or he could burn out in the low minors. Coming from Carlsbad High School in New Mexico, he's off the beaten prospect path, but the 6'6" lefty can scrape the upper 90's and comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's when he's at his best. His slider has sharp bite at times but needs further refinement, and his changeup a bit behind the slider. He'll need a lot of coaching to clean up his delivery and help him reach his ceiling, and he'll also turn 20 in November, making him the oldest high schooler that I have come across in this year's draft. Rogers has not signed yet, and isn't expected to come cheap with a commitment to Texas Tech.
CBA-36: OF Brian Miller (my rank: 55)
In my opinion, this is another reach. Miller is a solid all-around player, coming in with decent pop, good speed, good defense, and a solid ability to get on base. He had a good junior year for UNC, slashing .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs and 24 stolen bases, walking more (12.1%) than he struck out (11.1%). Miller has a long swing with good bat speed, yet it doesn't translate to much power because of his lack of loft. Personally, I see him as a second-division regular or as a solid fourth outfielder – a solid player, but not quite the value you want in the top 40. Miller signed for just under $1.9 million, right at slot.
2-51: 3B Joe Dunand (my rank: 139)
Dunand, who is Alex Rodriguez's nephew, has big time power. He broke out for 18 home runs this season, slashing .287/.368/.632 for NC State. He's also a pretty good defender, playing shortstop for the Wolfpack but profiling better at third base going forward. Lastly, he performed pretty well on the Cape (.326/.372/.511, 5 HR), but there's one big issue in his game that I think will do him in; he swings and misses way too much. At NC State this year, he put up an 18.6% strikeout rate while walking in just 7.9% of his plate appearances. Even on the Cape, he struck out in 18.6% and walked in just 4.1%. I just don't see his bat translating up, and I think he'll bust in the minors. Dunand signed for $1.2 million, which is $126,800 below slot.
3-89: 2B Riley Mahan (unranked)
Kentucky's second baseman broke out this year by slashing .336/.392/.618 with 15 home runs, but he also struck out in 18.7% of his plate appearances while walking in just 7.4%. He's also a mediocre defender that will likely end up an outfielder, but there is enough upside with the bat to kind of justify this pick almost. He does need to significantly improve his approach at the plate, because his bat will provide most of his value. Mahan signed for $525,000, which is $91,800 below slot.
4-119: RHP Colton Hock (my rank: 116)
This is the first time the Marlins took a player even within the range of where I ranked him. Hock began the season on the outskirts of the first round conversation, but didn't have the breakout junior year people hoped for and was instead a decent reliever for Stanford. Over 27 appearances, he essentially matched his sophomore season, putting up a 2.08 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP and striking out 35 in 47.2 innings. He throws in the low 90's with a big breaking curveball, and he stands at 6'5", all of which makes him an attractive player, but the strikeout rate is low, especially for someone who is already a reliever. There has been talk of converting Hock to a starter, though I'm not sure where the Marlins stand on that, and he'll need to develop a changeup. I did notice that his arm slot seems to be a bit lower this year from last year. Hock signed for $500,000, which is $54,000 above slot.
Others: 5th rounder Ryan Lillie spent two years as a reliever at UC-Riverside before transitioning to the rotation this year, and while he wasn't great (2-7, 4.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 80/20 K/BB), the stuff is there and he has a relatively high ceiling. Lillie throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a slider and a changeup, giving him the potential to crack an MLB rotation. 6th rounder Taylor Braley was a two-way player at Southern Miss, slashing .313/.461/.587 with 17 home runs while going 7-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Miami drafted him as a pitcher, meaning his last at bat was a "successful" sacrifice bunt that effectively ended USM's season because sacrifice bunting is a terrible idea 99% of the time with anybody and 100% of the time with a guy with Braley's bat. 15th rounder Brady Puckett was one of two Lipscomb stars to have disappointing seasons, the other being outfielder Michael Gigliotti. After a successful sophomore year where he went 9-2 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, much like Gigliotti, he had a great stint on the Cape, going 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP as a starter and positioned himself as a potential top 100 pick. However, as a junior, he went 8-6 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP against weak Atlantic Sun competition as his fastball dipped into the upper 80's. Puckett is a big dude, standing 6'9" and 240 pounds, and if he bounces back, he could be a back-end of the rotation workhorse. 32nd rounder Elliott Barzilli is a well-known name in college baseball, as he played for Georgia Tech in 2014 before transferring to Texas Christian for 2015-2017. Barzilli had his best year in 2016, slashing .339/.418/.518 with seven home runs for the Horned Frogs, but struggled to a .242/.304/.367 line this year with six home runs. He'll have the chance to work his way up as an infield/utility type. 35th rounder Tyler Holton probably won't sign, but has been nothing but dominant since coming to Florida State in 2016, going 13-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 36 games (28 starts), striking out 228 and walking just 64 in 187 innings. He sits in the upper 80's but can work off his fastball with an average slider and a good changeup, commanding everything well and racking up the K's due to his deception. If we see a velocity bump in 2018, he could work his way into the top 50 picks.
Also notable: Taylor Braley (6-179), Brady Puckett (15-449), Elliott Barzilli (32-959), Tyler Holton (35-1049)
The Marlins have arguably baseball's most barren farm system, and with three of the first 51 picks, they had a chance to restock it with the draft. Unfortunately, I think they blew that opportunity, and their farm system won't be getting the big boost it could have had. Though they took a high school pitcher with their first pick, Miami drafted just four high school players with their 41 picks, opting for three JuCo players and 34 college guys.
1-13: LHP Trevor Rogers (my rank: 25)
With guys like J.B. Bukauskas (ranked #6 on my list), Alex Faedo (#11), Jeren Kendall (#13), Nick Pratto (#14), Sam Carlson (#15), and many others left on the board, the Marlins had a plethora of great options for the thirteenth pick. Instead, they took high risk high school lefty Trevor Rogers with their first round pick, a player who I have nothing against but wouldn't consider this early in the draft. Rogers has a massive gap between his ceiling and his floor, as he could be a top of the rotation starter, or he could burn out in the low minors. Coming from Carlsbad High School in New Mexico, he's off the beaten prospect path, but the 6'6" lefty can scrape the upper 90's and comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's when he's at his best. His slider has sharp bite at times but needs further refinement, and his changeup a bit behind the slider. He'll need a lot of coaching to clean up his delivery and help him reach his ceiling, and he'll also turn 20 in November, making him the oldest high schooler that I have come across in this year's draft. Rogers has not signed yet, and isn't expected to come cheap with a commitment to Texas Tech.
CBA-36: OF Brian Miller (my rank: 55)
In my opinion, this is another reach. Miller is a solid all-around player, coming in with decent pop, good speed, good defense, and a solid ability to get on base. He had a good junior year for UNC, slashing .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs and 24 stolen bases, walking more (12.1%) than he struck out (11.1%). Miller has a long swing with good bat speed, yet it doesn't translate to much power because of his lack of loft. Personally, I see him as a second-division regular or as a solid fourth outfielder – a solid player, but not quite the value you want in the top 40. Miller signed for just under $1.9 million, right at slot.
2-51: 3B Joe Dunand (my rank: 139)
Dunand, who is Alex Rodriguez's nephew, has big time power. He broke out for 18 home runs this season, slashing .287/.368/.632 for NC State. He's also a pretty good defender, playing shortstop for the Wolfpack but profiling better at third base going forward. Lastly, he performed pretty well on the Cape (.326/.372/.511, 5 HR), but there's one big issue in his game that I think will do him in; he swings and misses way too much. At NC State this year, he put up an 18.6% strikeout rate while walking in just 7.9% of his plate appearances. Even on the Cape, he struck out in 18.6% and walked in just 4.1%. I just don't see his bat translating up, and I think he'll bust in the minors. Dunand signed for $1.2 million, which is $126,800 below slot.
3-89: 2B Riley Mahan (unranked)
Kentucky's second baseman broke out this year by slashing .336/.392/.618 with 15 home runs, but he also struck out in 18.7% of his plate appearances while walking in just 7.4%. He's also a mediocre defender that will likely end up an outfielder, but there is enough upside with the bat to kind of justify this pick almost. He does need to significantly improve his approach at the plate, because his bat will provide most of his value. Mahan signed for $525,000, which is $91,800 below slot.
4-119: RHP Colton Hock (my rank: 116)
This is the first time the Marlins took a player even within the range of where I ranked him. Hock began the season on the outskirts of the first round conversation, but didn't have the breakout junior year people hoped for and was instead a decent reliever for Stanford. Over 27 appearances, he essentially matched his sophomore season, putting up a 2.08 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP and striking out 35 in 47.2 innings. He throws in the low 90's with a big breaking curveball, and he stands at 6'5", all of which makes him an attractive player, but the strikeout rate is low, especially for someone who is already a reliever. There has been talk of converting Hock to a starter, though I'm not sure where the Marlins stand on that, and he'll need to develop a changeup. I did notice that his arm slot seems to be a bit lower this year from last year. Hock signed for $500,000, which is $54,000 above slot.
Others: 5th rounder Ryan Lillie spent two years as a reliever at UC-Riverside before transitioning to the rotation this year, and while he wasn't great (2-7, 4.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 80/20 K/BB), the stuff is there and he has a relatively high ceiling. Lillie throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a slider and a changeup, giving him the potential to crack an MLB rotation. 6th rounder Taylor Braley was a two-way player at Southern Miss, slashing .313/.461/.587 with 17 home runs while going 7-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Miami drafted him as a pitcher, meaning his last at bat was a "successful" sacrifice bunt that effectively ended USM's season because sacrifice bunting is a terrible idea 99% of the time with anybody and 100% of the time with a guy with Braley's bat. 15th rounder Brady Puckett was one of two Lipscomb stars to have disappointing seasons, the other being outfielder Michael Gigliotti. After a successful sophomore year where he went 9-2 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, much like Gigliotti, he had a great stint on the Cape, going 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP as a starter and positioned himself as a potential top 100 pick. However, as a junior, he went 8-6 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP against weak Atlantic Sun competition as his fastball dipped into the upper 80's. Puckett is a big dude, standing 6'9" and 240 pounds, and if he bounces back, he could be a back-end of the rotation workhorse. 32nd rounder Elliott Barzilli is a well-known name in college baseball, as he played for Georgia Tech in 2014 before transferring to Texas Christian for 2015-2017. Barzilli had his best year in 2016, slashing .339/.418/.518 with seven home runs for the Horned Frogs, but struggled to a .242/.304/.367 line this year with six home runs. He'll have the chance to work his way up as an infield/utility type. 35th rounder Tyler Holton probably won't sign, but has been nothing but dominant since coming to Florida State in 2016, going 13-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 36 games (28 starts), striking out 228 and walking just 64 in 187 innings. He sits in the upper 80's but can work off his fastball with an average slider and a good changeup, commanding everything well and racking up the K's due to his deception. If we see a velocity bump in 2018, he could work his way into the top 50 picks.
Friday, June 9, 2017
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: High Ceiling HS Pitchers
First Tier: Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Shane Baz
Second Tier: DL Hall, Sam Carlson, Trevor Rogers, Blayne Enlow, Matt Sauer, Hans Crouse
Third Tier: Alex Scherff, Joe Perez, Jake Eder, Landon Leach, James Marinan, Caden Lemons, Bryce Bonnin
Others: C.J. Van Eyk, Gavin Williams, Jackson Rutledge, Nick Storz, Daniel Ritcheson, Cade Cavalli
Sticking with the high ceiling theme, let's look at the one thing more risky than a toolsy high school hitter: a raw high school pitcher. Now, not all of these guys are raw, especially in the first and second tiers, but some of those guys in the "others" section basically just throw fastballs at this point. This list encompasses most high school pitchers, but I'm focusing on ceiling here so I left out the Hagen Danners and Tanner Burns's to focus on those who could legitimately be top of the rotation forces. Of course, most of these guys won't ever be impact arms on an MLB staff, but then again, some may win Cy Young Awards.
Tier I (Greene, Gore, Baz)
We all agree that Hunter Greene is the top talent in this class. He has the best chance on this list to be an ace, coming in with easy upper 90's velocity and some secondaries that flash plus. No other high schoolers in this draft can match his velocity, and unlike the guys further down the list that come close, he has solid pitchability. MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz aren't the same pitcher, but the deeper you look, the more similarities you find with them. Both began the season on the fringes of the first round conversation, but have positioned themselves to easily go in the top half of the first round. Scouts love both of their competitive spirits, and both are armed with low to mid 90's fastballs that they can bump up to 97. With full arsenals, they easily project as starters, though Gore commands his pitches better and has the advantage of being left handed. Gore also has a higher ceiling due to his more raw mechanics, and will likely go about five or so picks ahead of Baz, but you can't go wrong with either of these guys.
Tier II (Hall, Carlson, Rogers, Enlow, Sauer, Crouse)
Standing at 6'1", DL Hall is the second shortest guy on this list ahead of only the 6' Bryce Bonnin, but with his small frame, he fits into the "undersized lefty" demographic, which doesn't typically have a high ceiling. However, Hall can absolutely bring it, coming in in the low to mid 90's with arguably the best curveball in the class. As a long-established prospect, he's very different from the other high ceiling arm that sits right next to him on overall big board, Sam Carlson. A Minnesota product, Carlson surprised everybody by adding 5 MPH to his fastball this spring, now sitting in the mid 90's, with a power slider and a surprisingly good changeup for a cold weather high schooler. He commands it all from a 6'4" frame, giving him a higher floor than most prep arms. Trevor Rogers and Blayne Enlow share a lot of similarities despite different handedness. The 6'6" Rogers will likely go a little before the 6'4" Enlow because he is left handed, though both saw their draft stock dip a bit this spring with decreased velocity. Rogers throws a little harder, in the low 90's, while Enlow sits around 90, but Enlow's excellent curveball, which rivals that of Hall, is more advanced than Rogers' decent slider. Both are projection plays, as it's easy to envision both getting into the mid 90's when they fill out their projectable frames and clean up their mechanics, with Rogers having more work to do than Enlow. The 6'4" Matt Sauer and the 6'5" Hans Crouse both look like relievers at this point, with tall frames and high effort deliveries. Both throw very hard and project to be drafted in the same range, 25-35ish, so teams considering one are bound to be considering the other at the same time. Crouse's skinnier frame is a little bit more projectable, and he sits in the mid 90's a little bit more consistently than Sauer. That said, Sauer's slider is a little better than Crouse's curveball. If they both end up relievers, I think Crouse will be the better pitcher, but I am more optimistic about Sauer's ability to stick in a starting rotation. He has a thicker build and a very different pitching motion from Crouse. While Crouse generates his velocity by leaning back and then short-arming his delivery, Sauer does so by the sheer strength of his arm and by extending his long arms (it's important to note that Crouse has similar arm strength and long arms). I think Sauer's delivery is inefficient, and cleaning it up/getting him more on line to the plate can pay huge dividends. In contrast, I don't see much a team can do to tinker with Crouse's delivery without changing his entire profile as a pitcher, so he's probably best being left as he is with some minor adjustments. Because of all of this, I rank Sauer a few spots higher than Crouse, but it wouldn't be unjustifiable to take Crouse first.
Tier III (Scherff, Perez, Eder, Leach, Marinan, Lemons, Bonnin)
Alex Scherff is an interesting pitcher. He's a full year older than the typical high school senior, and he has transferred high schools three times, pitching at three different schools in his first three years of high school before transferring back to the original one for his senior year. It all adds up to a very weird profile before he even steps on the mound, but the stuff is premium. A shorter righty at 6'2", he can run his riding fastball into the mid 90's deep into starts, and his full arsenal is highlighted by an excellent changeup, possibly the best in this high school draft class. His slider and curveball need work, but the slider does have some late bite, and he could be a mid rotation starter if it all comes together. I'm going to skip around and compare Joe Perez to James Marinan, both of whom are projectable right handers who pitch in south Florida. They also both popped onto scouts radars this season, quite literally as Marinan found a mid 90's fastball and Perez touched the upper 90's. They both have a lot of work to do on their offspeeds, though Marinan's curveball is coming along well and he has a better chance of sticking in a starting rotation. Perez is more of a projection play because he only started pitching recently, and he is also the second youngest player in the entire list of potential top 100 picks, trailing only fellow south Floridan Mark Vientos by three days. Perez's ceiling easily fits in with Tier II, but the distance he has to get there keeps him in Tier III. Jake Eder and Caden Lemons can be compared to each other as tall, projectable picks with terrible mechanics. The 6'4" Eder and the 6'6" Lemons can both sit in the low 90's easily. Both will need complete overhauls of their mechanics, but being able to do what they do as it is is pretty incredible. Eder's mechanics are simply all over the place, while Lemons looks like he's just walking up to the mound and throwing the ball. 6'4" Canadian Landon Leach has similar stuff to Eder, though he is right handed and has a cleaner delivery. He's a safer bet, but also probably has a lower ceiling. Lastly, Bryce Bonnin has a devastating fastball/slider combo, sitting in the low to mid 90's depending on when you see him and throwing hitters off with that nasty slider. He may profile best as a reliever down the road due to his shorter stature (he's 6') and inconsistencies with being able to maintain his command. If he does end up in the bullpen, he has the kind of stuff that can play up there and be very valuable.
Second Tier: DL Hall, Sam Carlson, Trevor Rogers, Blayne Enlow, Matt Sauer, Hans Crouse
Third Tier: Alex Scherff, Joe Perez, Jake Eder, Landon Leach, James Marinan, Caden Lemons, Bryce Bonnin
Others: C.J. Van Eyk, Gavin Williams, Jackson Rutledge, Nick Storz, Daniel Ritcheson, Cade Cavalli
Sticking with the high ceiling theme, let's look at the one thing more risky than a toolsy high school hitter: a raw high school pitcher. Now, not all of these guys are raw, especially in the first and second tiers, but some of those guys in the "others" section basically just throw fastballs at this point. This list encompasses most high school pitchers, but I'm focusing on ceiling here so I left out the Hagen Danners and Tanner Burns's to focus on those who could legitimately be top of the rotation forces. Of course, most of these guys won't ever be impact arms on an MLB staff, but then again, some may win Cy Young Awards.
Tier I (Greene, Gore, Baz)
We all agree that Hunter Greene is the top talent in this class. He has the best chance on this list to be an ace, coming in with easy upper 90's velocity and some secondaries that flash plus. No other high schoolers in this draft can match his velocity, and unlike the guys further down the list that come close, he has solid pitchability. MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz aren't the same pitcher, but the deeper you look, the more similarities you find with them. Both began the season on the fringes of the first round conversation, but have positioned themselves to easily go in the top half of the first round. Scouts love both of their competitive spirits, and both are armed with low to mid 90's fastballs that they can bump up to 97. With full arsenals, they easily project as starters, though Gore commands his pitches better and has the advantage of being left handed. Gore also has a higher ceiling due to his more raw mechanics, and will likely go about five or so picks ahead of Baz, but you can't go wrong with either of these guys.
Tier II (Hall, Carlson, Rogers, Enlow, Sauer, Crouse)
Standing at 6'1", DL Hall is the second shortest guy on this list ahead of only the 6' Bryce Bonnin, but with his small frame, he fits into the "undersized lefty" demographic, which doesn't typically have a high ceiling. However, Hall can absolutely bring it, coming in in the low to mid 90's with arguably the best curveball in the class. As a long-established prospect, he's very different from the other high ceiling arm that sits right next to him on overall big board, Sam Carlson. A Minnesota product, Carlson surprised everybody by adding 5 MPH to his fastball this spring, now sitting in the mid 90's, with a power slider and a surprisingly good changeup for a cold weather high schooler. He commands it all from a 6'4" frame, giving him a higher floor than most prep arms. Trevor Rogers and Blayne Enlow share a lot of similarities despite different handedness. The 6'6" Rogers will likely go a little before the 6'4" Enlow because he is left handed, though both saw their draft stock dip a bit this spring with decreased velocity. Rogers throws a little harder, in the low 90's, while Enlow sits around 90, but Enlow's excellent curveball, which rivals that of Hall, is more advanced than Rogers' decent slider. Both are projection plays, as it's easy to envision both getting into the mid 90's when they fill out their projectable frames and clean up their mechanics, with Rogers having more work to do than Enlow. The 6'4" Matt Sauer and the 6'5" Hans Crouse both look like relievers at this point, with tall frames and high effort deliveries. Both throw very hard and project to be drafted in the same range, 25-35ish, so teams considering one are bound to be considering the other at the same time. Crouse's skinnier frame is a little bit more projectable, and he sits in the mid 90's a little bit more consistently than Sauer. That said, Sauer's slider is a little better than Crouse's curveball. If they both end up relievers, I think Crouse will be the better pitcher, but I am more optimistic about Sauer's ability to stick in a starting rotation. He has a thicker build and a very different pitching motion from Crouse. While Crouse generates his velocity by leaning back and then short-arming his delivery, Sauer does so by the sheer strength of his arm and by extending his long arms (it's important to note that Crouse has similar arm strength and long arms). I think Sauer's delivery is inefficient, and cleaning it up/getting him more on line to the plate can pay huge dividends. In contrast, I don't see much a team can do to tinker with Crouse's delivery without changing his entire profile as a pitcher, so he's probably best being left as he is with some minor adjustments. Because of all of this, I rank Sauer a few spots higher than Crouse, but it wouldn't be unjustifiable to take Crouse first.
Tier III (Scherff, Perez, Eder, Leach, Marinan, Lemons, Bonnin)
Alex Scherff is an interesting pitcher. He's a full year older than the typical high school senior, and he has transferred high schools three times, pitching at three different schools in his first three years of high school before transferring back to the original one for his senior year. It all adds up to a very weird profile before he even steps on the mound, but the stuff is premium. A shorter righty at 6'2", he can run his riding fastball into the mid 90's deep into starts, and his full arsenal is highlighted by an excellent changeup, possibly the best in this high school draft class. His slider and curveball need work, but the slider does have some late bite, and he could be a mid rotation starter if it all comes together. I'm going to skip around and compare Joe Perez to James Marinan, both of whom are projectable right handers who pitch in south Florida. They also both popped onto scouts radars this season, quite literally as Marinan found a mid 90's fastball and Perez touched the upper 90's. They both have a lot of work to do on their offspeeds, though Marinan's curveball is coming along well and he has a better chance of sticking in a starting rotation. Perez is more of a projection play because he only started pitching recently, and he is also the second youngest player in the entire list of potential top 100 picks, trailing only fellow south Floridan Mark Vientos by three days. Perez's ceiling easily fits in with Tier II, but the distance he has to get there keeps him in Tier III. Jake Eder and Caden Lemons can be compared to each other as tall, projectable picks with terrible mechanics. The 6'4" Eder and the 6'6" Lemons can both sit in the low 90's easily. Both will need complete overhauls of their mechanics, but being able to do what they do as it is is pretty incredible. Eder's mechanics are simply all over the place, while Lemons looks like he's just walking up to the mound and throwing the ball. 6'4" Canadian Landon Leach has similar stuff to Eder, though he is right handed and has a cleaner delivery. He's a safer bet, but also probably has a lower ceiling. Lastly, Bryce Bonnin has a devastating fastball/slider combo, sitting in the low to mid 90's depending on when you see him and throwing hitters off with that nasty slider. He may profile best as a reliever down the road due to his shorter stature (he's 6') and inconsistencies with being able to maintain his command. If he does end up in the bullpen, he has the kind of stuff that can play up there and be very valuable.
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