Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts

Friday, December 12, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

The Nationals picked first overall for the first time since taking Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper in back to back drafts in 2009 and 2010, and they did so more or less on the fly after firing General Manager Mike Rizzo shortly before the draft. In Mike DeBartolo's sole draft at the helm, he continued Rizzo's strategy of pouring money into the first several picks before paying pennies to the handful in the back half of day two. In fact, Washington gave $85,000 combined to their five picks from rounds six through ten after giving out five straight bonuses of at least $2 million to start the draft. Preps were the early focus here, with four high schoolers receiving a combined $15.2 million at the top of the draft. Interestingly, DeBartolo heavily favored power bats, grabbing the all time home run leaders at both Mississippi State (Hunter Hines, 70) and Oregon (Jacob Walsh, 59) as well three more guys who came close South Carolina's Ethan Petry (54), Wright State's Boston Smith (51), and Butler's Jack Moroknek (31). Interestingly, Washington also drafted four hulking first basemen in Petry (6'4", 235 pounds), Hines (6'3", 210), Walsh (6'4", 225), and Juan Cruz (6'5", 240), They can't all play, so whoever provides the most thump will be the one to lift himself up to the majors.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-1: SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]
Slot value: $11.08 million. Signing bonus: $8.2 million ($2.88 million below slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #3.
With their first pick, the Nationals went all-in on a young shortstop from a small town in Oklahoma, and they got him at a big discount. Eli Willits' $8.2 million signing bonus, while the third largest in the class behind Ethan Holliday ($9M, Rockies) and Kade Anderson ($8.8M, Mariners), represented just over the value of the #5 pick and netted the Nationals nearly $3 million in savings, the largest under slot bonus of the entire draft. Willits is a stud and has a chance to grow into a star. The son of former Angels outfielder Reggie Willits, Eli brings the mature feel for the game you'd expect from a coach's son at an extremely young age. Having reclassified up into the 2025 class, he was the age of a high school junior and anywhere from six months to a year and a half younger than the rest of his high school graduating class. Still, he can play with the best of them. He is a switch hitter who repeats a simple operation in the box from both sides of the plate, enabling him to execute his attack plan as consistently as anybody at that age. His accurate barrel shoots line drives around the field and has constantly performed not just against elite competition on the showcase circuit, but against much older elite competition on the showcase circuit. The innate confidence in the box at his age is uncanny. For now, his power plays closer to fringy as he focuses on line drives and hitting for average, but again, he is just seventeen years old (still, as I write this nearly five months after the draft) and has plenty of room and time to grow into his 6'1" frame. The Nationals will move him at his pace, allowing him to grow into his body and learn to elevate the ball more as the power comes. That should help him project for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps more if he shifts his approach to become power conscious, but the real draw is that he could flirt with .400 on-base percentages at the big league level. With his above average speed, he has a classic leadoff profile with the power to fill that role in today's modern game. Willits plays shortstop and should stick there, with a polished glove and above average arm that help him steadily make all of the plays that come his way. There are four above average or better tools here combined with the baseball IQ to make all of it play up, and the power is coming too. The kid from tiny Fort Cobb, Oklahoma (population 518, some sixty miles southwest of Oklahoma City) should grow into a steady leader that will pace the Nationals for years to come.

2-49: OF Ethan Petry, South Carolina
Slot value: $1.98 million. Signing bonus: $2.09 million ($105,800 above slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #59. Baseball America: #36.
With millions in potential over slot money to play around with, the Nationals dipped just a little into that pot to bring in one of the best college sluggers of the past couple seasons. Ethan Petry garnered significant draft interest at Cypress Creek High School in the Tampa suburbs, but made it to campus at South Carolina where you could say things went pretty well. He blasted five home runs in his first seven games as a Gamecock and finished his freshman year with 23 while hitting .376/.471/.733 across 63 games and being named Perfect Game's National Freshman of the Year. While he couldn't quite match that success in 2024, he still hit 21 home runs and put up a .471 on-base percentage, then shoulder problems ended his 2025 season early as he finished his South Carolina career with 54 home runs and an impressive .336/.462/.661 slash line over 168 games. Listed at 6'4" and 235 pounds, Petry looks every bit of the slugger he is. Using a no-nonsense operation in the box, he just chucks the barrel at the baseball and sends it soaring, effortlessly showing plus-plus power with elite exit velocities to back up his home run totals. He gets the ball in the air consistently and always seems to be finding the barrel, making for one of the more daunting at bats in the country for pitchers. For that reason, Petry has rarely seen good pitches to hit especially over the last two seasons, helping him run high walk rates despite a propensity to chase. The bat to ball is average, so if he can stay in the strike zone more consistently (which should be easier as pro pitchers give him more to hit), he has a chance to hit for decent averages and strong on-base percentages with all those home runs. In fact, he demolished Cape Cod League pitching in 2024 to the tune of a .360/.480/.760 slash line with 11 home runs in 31 games, so between the Cape and the SEC he is no stranger to elite pitching. Though he was drafted as an outfielder, Petry is a well below average athlete who doesn't run much and will be limited to first base at best, if not to DH later in his career. There is something of a Pete Alonso comp here if he can put it all together and keep the strikeouts down.

3-80: RHP Landon Harmon, East Union HS [MS]
Slot value: $1.01 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.49 million above slot value).
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #48. Baseball America: #65.
Two years ago, the Nationals dropped a massive bonus on prep arm Travis Sykora in the third round, which has worked out very well so far. They did it again here with savings from Eli Willits, handing Landon Harmon roughly the value of the #39 pick to sign here at #80 rather than attend Mississippi State. The upside here is hard to match, especially in the third round. This is a profile led by an electric fastball, one that sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 99 at peak with cutting action. While the shape is fairly ordinary, he does come from a low release that puts flat plane on the pitch and helps it zip over bats. He has yet to find much consistency with his breaking stuff, though his slider has flashed plus at its best with nasty late snap and could become a true putaway weapon as he hones his feel for the pitch. His curveball can get slurvy but has the makings of an average pitch. Similarly, his changeup has shown nice run at times, but he can drop his arm and give hitters a better look. Above all, the 6'5" righty is an explosive athlete with one of the more impressive deliveries in the prep class. He moves extremely well on the mound with an elastic delivery that efficiently generates power and will be very conducive to even further strength gains as he fills out that extremely projectable frame. The command is not yet pinpoint, but he stays around the zone pretty well considering how electric his arm is, and he should get to average command as he works up. While far from a finished product, Harmon has exceptional building blocks to develop into a frontline starter at the big league level. The Nationals will move him slowly, fine tuning his offspeed stuff and helping him put on weight to potentially start touching triple digits. Like Willits, he comes from a small town in northeastern Mississippi and should rocket forward in the Nationals' system, much like Sykora.

4-111: RHP Miguel Sime Jr., Poly Prep HS [NY]
Slot value: $687,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.31 million above slot value).
My rank: #92. MLB Pipeline: #86. Baseball America: #88.
With the other half of their savings from Eli Willits, Washington roped in an arm just as electric as Landon Harmon. A Queens native coming from the Brooklyn prep ranks, Miguel Sime completely shut down New York City high school pitching to nearly a comical degree with his blazing fastball. Coming in even harder than Harmon's, it sits mid to upper 90's and set an MLB Draft League record by touching 101 miles per hour. With its riding action, it comes in like a rocket ship and could be an 80 grade pitch when all is said and done. For now, as with Harmon, it's the fastball that carries the profile. His breaking ball is still searching for its identity working between slider and curveball shape, flashing plus at its best with hard bite down but frequently backing up into a fringy offering. He has shown some aptitude for a fading changeup, and while it will need significant refinement, he does have a nice foundation. The 6'4" righty is already extremely physical and clocks in at 235 pounds as an eighteen year old, so while he may lack much projection at this point, the arm strength is already off the charts. Washington will work to help him streamline a delivery that features some effort and head whack and long arm action in the back, which often impacts his command especially inside and outside. There is of course significant reliever risk considering the command and his lack of consistent secondary pitches, but the upside is tremendous as a triple digit flamethrower who has shown flashes of quality secondary stuff. The Nationals will move him slowly and work on one thing at a time as he climbs the rungs. Previously committed to LSU, his $2 million signing bonus roughly fit in with the slot value for Ethan Petry's #49 pick.

5-142: SS Coy James, Davie County HS [NC]
Slot value: $508,900. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.99 million above slot value).
My rank: #69. MLB Pipeline: #94. Baseball America: #49.
The over slot bonuses keep on flowing, and this time Washington went back to the prep shortstop demographic for Coy James. To pry him away from Ole Miss, they hit him with the same $2.5 million signing bonus they gave third rounder Landon Harmon, close to the value of the #39 pick and roughly five times the slot value for the #142 pick. James, for whatever reason, has driven a wide discrepancy in opinions over the course of the draft cycle. He's fairly raw, but the tools are there. The North Carolina native has strong bat to ball that enables him to get to balls all over and outside the zone, shooting line drives with authority to all fields. While he's not huge at a pretty standard 6', 185 pounds, James packs plenty of strength into his skinnier frame to show average power when he stays within himself, with a tight right handed swing that wastes little movement. He can also let loose and turn on the ball for above average power if he chooses to, though he is borrowing from his contact ability when he does that. James does have a relatively aggressive approach at the plate that causes his offensive profile to play down at times, which was the case last summer on the showcase circuit after standing out as a potential first rounder early in his high school career. At this point, there are many directions he could develop in offensively, from an aggressive power-over-hit guy who can crush 20+ home runs per season with low on-base percentages to more of a balanced profile with 10-15 home runs per season and higher batting averages. That would seem to be Jonathan Schoop or Danny Espinosa (offensively) at one end or perhaps a Chris Taylor/Starlin Castro deal on the other. Defensively, opinions are split on James as well. Washington drafted him as a shortstop, though not all scouts agree that he has the quickness to stick at that key position depending on the day they saw him. He has good hands in the dirt and enough arm to make the left side of the infield work, though the profile may fit better at second or third base especially when sharing a draft class with Eli Willits. There are some who like him better in the outfield, where he may end up in a corner. To me, the most likely outcome is that of a bat-first second baseman who relies on power and contact to drive an offensive profile that won't feature a ton of walks.

6-171: C Boston Smith, Wright State
Slot value: $386,700. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($336,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Just about out of bonus pool money, it came time to save and for Washington that began with sixth rounder Boston Smith. Above all else, power is the name of the game here. He has clubbed 45 home runs in 113 games over the past two seasons at Wright State, including smashing the single season Wright State and Horizon League records with 26 home runs in 2025, a total that tied Reds fourth rounder Mason Neville (Oregon) for the NCAA Division I lead. In all, he hit .332/.500/.774 as he led the Raiders to a regional appearance in Nashville. Unsurprisingly, Smith has plus power that plays up in games because he gets on plane with the ball early and builds his swing to launch the ball to the pull side. He primarily works in the air to right field and shoots line drives up the middle, an approach that played extremely well in the Horizon League against admittedly mediocre pitching. A very disciplined hitter, he walked over 20% of the time in 2025 and carried that into the MLB Draft League, where he hit .226/.391/.434 with an 18.8% walk rate with wood bats. The pure bat to ball is below average and pro pitchers will attack Smith inside the strike zone, where he'll have to keep making quality contact as he faces better and better stuff. That will be the primary key in his development. In a really tough early season eleven game stretch of games against Auburn, Miami, Ole Miss, and NC State, he hit .270/.413/.351 with just one home run and a 32.6% strikeout rate. Behind the plate, the Dayton-area product showcases a strong arm that threw out nine of 24 attempted stolen bases in the Draft League. While he was exclusively a catcher for the Raiders this spring, he has seen time all over the field including at shortstop and stole sixteen bases for them this year. In all, Smith brings power, patience, and defensive versatility to the team, but as a senior sign who has not shown a mastery of the all important in-zone contact metric against better pitching, he'll need to clean that aspect of his game up quickly.

10-291: 1B Hunter Hines, Mississippi State
Slot value: $193,800. Signing bonus: $5,000 ($188,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Hunter Hines is a case study in how draft stock can fluctuate. He was not exactly the centerpiece of Mississippi State's 2021 recruiting class, but he burst onto the scene with a huge freshman year in 2022 in which he slashed .300/.393/.600 with 16 home runs for the Rebels, earning Freshman All-American honors from some outlets and making a name for himself in the SEC practically overnight. He blasted 22 more home runs in 2023 and was named First Team All-SEC as a sophomore, then entered his junior season as a potential top-five rounds pick. He hit 16 more home runs, but swing and miss caught up to him and he went undrafted despite ranking well on some boards. Hitting exactly 16 home runs for the third time in four years in 2025, Hines failed to rebuild his draft stock and signed with the Nationals for just $5,000 as a senior sign. In the end, he ended up breaking Rafael Palmeiro's forty year old Mississippi State home run record and finished with 70 bombs and 221 RBI in 228 games. Obviously, the calling card is power. Listed at 6'3", 210 pounds, he looks every bit of it and clobbers baseballs with great force, showing plus power that he has gotten to both in SEC games and with wood bats in the Cape Cod League, where his thirteen regular season home runs in 2023 set the league's single season record. He's a pull hitter that loves to launch the ball in the air, an approach that has worked well for him so far but may start to crack in pro ball. Hines is an aggressive hitter who, despite being a premier power threat and Mississippi State's all time home run record, holds a modest 11.7% career walk rate that admittedly reached a career-high 13.2% in 2025. Still, that is primarily a factor of pitchers not giving him much to hit rather than patience on his part. Hines also has below average bat to ball and has struck out in over a quarter of his at bats over his four years, though again he had modest improvement to 24% in 2025. The Jackson-area native will need significant polish all around his hit tool if he wants to tap that power in pro ball, furthering the gains he's made with discipline outside the zone while making more contact in the zone. He has enough power that he should be able to employ a more contact-oriented approach while still bringing thump, but it's a long way to go for a senior sign who turned 23 at the start of this offseason. He's also a non-athlete who will be limited to first base and potentially DH down the line, a position he'll have to fight off against Ethan Petry and Jacob Walsh in this draft class as well as many others in the Nationals' system. If Hines can clean up his hit tool, he has a chance to be a platoon bat in the mold of Matt Adams at his best.

11-321: OF Jack Moroknek, Butler
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #396.
You don't see many 22 year olds sign above slot value, but Jack Moroknek has only played two years of college ball and had a transfer commitment to Texas in hand to push up his price. He did not appear in a college game until 2024, when he was already nearly 21 years old, but in the last two seasons he has demolished Big East pitching to the tune of 31 home runs and a .350/.427/.646 slash line over 109 games. He started off the 2025 season red hot, hitting .494/.537/1.037 with a dozen home runs through his first 21 games, and while he couldn't quite maintain that pace, the impression had been made. Moroknek has plus-plus raw power from a violent left handed operation in which he brute forces baseballs into the atmosphere. While power is certainly the calling card, the bat to ball is sneaky here. He is a very aggressive hitter who would not allow Big East pitchers to pitch around him, attacking balls in the shadow zone just outside the strike zone and doing so with success. Despite the chase-heavy approach, he ran a moderate 16.2% strikeout rate and showed the ability to get to balls all around the plate. He was, unsurprisingly, at his best inside the strike zone where he rarely let a strike get by him, doing some of the best damage in the country when pitchers came into his wheelhouse. The Indianapolis-area native has a pull-heavy approach that features an exaggerated step in the bucket, so while it has been no issue at all against Butler's relatively weak schedule, pro pitchers will be more apt to take advantage and draw him out of that wheelhouse. Moroknek's combination of power and bat to ball is nonetheless impressive and gives the new regime plenty to work with, so if he can shore up the approach a little bit, he could seriously outplay his draft position as an everyday lineup option. He has almost exclusively played the corners at Butler and figures to stay that way in pro ball, slotting into left or right field depending on where the Nationals need him.

12-351: LHP Ben Moore, Old Dominion
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #237. Baseball America: #243.
Round twelve saw the Nationals pull in a local kid from Frederick County, one who grew up less than ten miles away from current Nationals infielder Trey Lipscomb. A graduate of Linganore High School about nine miles east of Frederick, Ben Moore has had an up and down career at Old Dominion down in Virginia. Immediately a trusted reliever as a freshman, he was lights out as a sophomore in 2024 (2.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 39/11 K/BB) before intriguing scouts with a loud fall ahead of his junior season. A move to the rotation did not go as well as hoped as his ERA ballooned to 6.64 ERA, his WHIP to 1.66, his strikeout rate dropped from 27.7% to 19.1%, and his walk rate jumped from 7.8% to 10.4% in 2025. Still, Washington saw what he could do at his best and wants the talented lefty on their side. Moore sits in the low 90's as a starter and can reach back for 97 in short stints out of the bullpen, coming in with sinking action from a high slot. He works his above average slider around the zone well with nice finish, while his changeup is more of a third pitch. Moore has shown average command on his best days but has lost it on others, especially when trying to stretch out deeper into games, so it probably profiles as fringy right now. The 6'4" lefty is built like a big league starter and does not throw with a lot of effort, aiding his chances at starting, but he'll need to learn to repeat his delivery a bit better and his arm slot does have the tendency to wander, anywhere from straight over the top to low three quarters. While that can be something some amateur pitchers do in order to mess with hitters' sight lines (I'm guilty of it myself, having once finished off a save in a men's league game by dropping to submarine), you don't see it much in pro ball. If Moore can get more consistent with his command and bring his changeup along, he has a chance to be a back-end starter, or in the bullpen he could live in the mid 90's and let his sinker/slider combination go to work.

13-381: RHP Tucker Biven, Louisville
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #347.
Tucker Biven is a big arm to give the Nationals a buy-low opportunity. A three year contributor on the Louisville pitching staff, he has made 63 appearances (nine starts) during his time with the Cardinals and earned stints with the US Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League. The stuff is absolutely there. His fastball sits low 90's as a starter and can touch 97 in short stints, coming in with plenty run and sink to avoid hard contact. He has a hard upper 80's slider that stands out more for its power than its movement, showing the tendency to back up at times but at others looking like a reliable weapon. He adds a curveball and changeup that he uses less, but with the way the ball runs out of his hand, the Nationals should be able to at least help bring the changeup along. The 6'1" righty is very physical and looks the part of a big league pitcher, and while he lacks projection, he should be durable enough to handle a full season in the majors. With a late arm and some effort in his delivery, Biven is more control over command, attacking hitters in the zone to stay ahead in the count rather than pinpointing his pitches to the corners. That led to a concerningly low 17.9% strikeout rate in 2025, often getting hit when he left pitches over the plate and lacking the command or quality offspeed stuff to get too many chases down out of the zone. To develop as a starter, the local Louisville-area native will need to get more consistent with his secondary stuff and deepen the arsenal overall, which in turn will help him miss more bats in the zone. Getting on time with his delivery and sharpening that command a touch would also go a long way. More likely, he looks like a sinker/slider reliever who can sit mid 90's in short stints and provide a quality bullpen arm for Washington.

15-441: 1B Jacob Walsh, Oregon
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jacob Walsh gives the Nationals a third power hitting first baseman. After earning some Freshman All-American looks in 2022, he blasted sixteen, eighteen, and nineteen home runs over the past three seasons. He actually set Oregon's all time home run record halfway through his junior season, then played his senior season and finished with 59, nearly double Tanner Smith's previous record of 31. Additionally, he has improved as a hitter every season, bumping his slash line from .241/.302/.500 as a sophomore to .254/.348/.548 as a junior to .332/.435/.651 this year as a senior. Previously an extremely aggressive hitter, he has toned down his approach to simply moderately aggressive and bumped his walk rate from 7.8% as a freshman to 11.6% as a junior to 13.0% as a senior. Staying in the strike zone has helped him tremendously improve his contact rates, so his strikeout rate had a corresponding drop from 29.4% to 26.2% to 18.1%. That helps him improve from a 30 grade hit tool to more of a 40, which is playable with the power he possesses. Listed at 6'4", 225 pounds, Walsh generates tremendous torque with his left handed swing to lift and launch baseballs deep into the night, stinging line drives at equally impressive rates that might leave opposing first and second basemen getting set a few steps back out of self preservation. Even with his improvement, it's unlikely that Walsh possesses the approach and bat to ball to play every day in the big leagues at a position like first base where the offensive bar is very high, profiling more as a platoon bat that can torch right handed pitchers. I compared Hunter Hines to Matt Adams, and I think a very similar projection applies for Walsh. Unlike Hines and Ethan Petry, the other big swinging first basemen drafted earlier, Walsh is a fairly lithe defender around the bag and should be a net positive there. The Las Vegas native is a pretty good athlete for his size and stole eight bases in 2025, showing the defensive awareness to make numerous impressive plays along the first base wall and dugout during his time in Eugene. At first base, it's all about who provides the most impact in the lineup, but showing a slicker glove than most can only help.

16-471: LHP Levi Huesman, Vanderbilt
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
A second hometown lefty for this class, Levi Huesman brings a high prospect pedigree that is admittedly short on results. A native of Hanover, Virginia about half an hour north of Richmond, Huesman was the top prospect in the state while at Hanover High School but ultimately headed south to Coastal Carolina rather than go pro. While he quickly earned a prominent role on the Chanticleers pitching staff as a freshman, he proved far too hittable and struggled to a 9.36 ERA and transferred to Vanderbilt. In Nashville, he didn't see the mound much over his two years but improved significantly from his sophomore (6.00 ERA, 21.7% / 16.7% K/BB) to his junior (2.81 ERA, 29.9% / 6.0% K/BB) seasons. Huesman stood out for his flat low 90's fastball as a freshman, though at the time his lack of projection was noted as a minor concern. His velocity has largely remained the same three years later, topping out around 96 in short stints, and it has proven hittable when he falls behind in the count. His slider has become a real weapon, coming in with mid 80's velocity and hard, late sweep to miss a ton of bats, and he uses it liberally. He can also turn it over into a curveball in the mid to upper 70's, but the slider is clearly his bread and butter. As was the case three years ago, his changeup remains a fringier option. At this point, the 6' lefty looks like a full time bullpen option as he has neither started a game nor thrown more than two innings at a time since 2023, pitching just 28 innings combined over the last two seasons. Slight of stature, he'll instead be a slider-heavy lefty in the Nationals organization who can hopefully find more success with his flat fastball in a big league development program. Huesman throws from a low slot and has improved his command significantly during his time in college, so if those command gains hold, he could be a quality lefty option in future Nationals bullpens.

Monday, August 4, 2025

Reviewing the 2025 Washington Nationals Trade Deadline

Traded: Michael Soroka (CHC), Kyle Finnegan (DET), Amed Rosario (NYY), Alex Call (LAD), Luis Garcia (LAA), Andrew Chafin (LAA)

Received: Christian Franklin (CHC), Ronny Cruz (CHC), Josh Randall (DET), R.J. Sales (DET), Clayton Beeter (NYY), Browm Martinez (NYY), Sean Paul Liñan (LAD), Eriq Swan (LAD), Jake Eder (LAA), Sam Brown (LAA)

Yet again, it was a fire sale for the Nationals at the deadline. While no superstars were dealt like in years past, they still shipped off six major league assets in exchange for ten mid and low-caliber prospects. On day one, none project to be a James Wood, a CJ Abrams, or a MacKenzie Gore, but the law of averages means that in a group of ten, some will certainly over perform and there could be a few legitimate pieces here that are contributors on the next contending Nationals team. Let's dig in, trade by trade.

Trade 1 (7/26)
Yankees receive:
    - 3B Amed Rosario (age 29): 5 HR, .270/.310/.426, 1 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Clayton Beeter (age 26): 14.79 ERA, 12.92 FIP, 2.45 WHIP, 1/4 K/BB in 3.2 IP
    - CF Browm Martinez (age 18): 3 HR, .404/.507/.632, 13 SB, 187 wRC+ in DSL
In a trade deadline where the vast majority of activity occurred within the last 24-48 hours before the deadline, this trade feels like ancient history. Mike Rizzo had many shortcomings, but finding diamonds in the free agent rough was not one of them. Amed Rosario signed with the team for just $2 million and put up a very respectable season in Washington, seeing frequent starts at second and third base while providing a league average bat. The Yankees needed another infield bat to help an offense that suddenly went quiet, and Rosario's keen ability to hit lefties (.299/.333/.483 pre-trade) landed the Nationals a decent return. Clayton Beeter was drafted by Dodgers 66th overall back in 2020 out of Texas Tech, then went to the Yankees for Joey Gallo in 2022. He put up excellent numbers in the upper minors 2023 and 2024, but injuries slowed his ascent and he never quite caught on in the majors with just five relief appearances over two seasons. Now 26 years old, he has primarily pitched at AAA this season to good, but not great results. Primarily a starting pitcher for most of his minor league career, a high walk rate has finally forced him to the bullpen where he projects to stay long term. The stuff is pretty impressive and has missed a ton of bats in the upper minors and should play in the majors so long as he can stay ahead in counts. While the Nationals sent him to AAA Rochester after the trade, I would expect him to be on the short list to earn some innings in Washington in the near future and I could see him sticking around as a solid mid-leverage reliever. The command will likely never come together enough for a high leverage role but I feel it more likely than not that he makes himself a regular in the Nationals bullpen in some capacity in the near future. Browm Martinez, meanwhile, is the prototypical "rookie ball lottery ticket." Just 18 years old, he signed with the Yankees for $130,000 out of the Dominican Republic last year and held his own as a 17 year old in the Dominican Summer League in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025 as many kids do, he has been one of the best hitters on the island by hitting .404 with three home runs and just eight strikeouts in eighteen games. It's a tiny sample in a league where stats don't mean terribly much in the first place, but you really can't perform any better than he did and that's certainly not a bad thing. Listed at an undersized 5'10", 160 pounds, he'll look to bulk up in the Nationals' system as any kid his age would (remember he's the age of a graduating high school senior). Still, he has made a ton of contact and even hit for some power already, pointing to perhaps more offensive upside than his size would indicate. A centerfielder by trade, he has shown well out there and could stick. Martinez is many years away and a lottery ticket in its truest sense, so Nationals fans will likely have forgotten all about Amed Rosario's 47 games by the time he reaches the majors in the late 2020's.

Trade 2
Angels receive:
    - LHP Andrew Chafin (age 35): 2.70 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.60 WHIP, 18/12 K/BB in 20 IP
    - RHP Luis Garcia (age 38): 4.10 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, 31/18 K/BB in 37.1 IP   
Nationals receive:
    - LHP Jake Eder (age 26): 4.91 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 15/9 K/BB in 18.1 IP
    - 1B Sam Brown (age 23): 5 HR, .244/.350/.358, 2 SB, 117 wRC+ at AA
This trade briefly grabbed headlines because it involved three major leaguers, but ultimately it's likely to be a nothing-burger. The Angels acquired two low leverage, late career relievers in exchange for one younger low leverage, early career reliever and organizational depth at first base, a position that doesn't really require organizational depth. Given that Andrew Chafin joined the Nationals in May and Luis Garcia in July, getting anything in return for the 35 and 38 year olds, respectively, is a win. They'll join the Angels to add some depth and keep the team competitive going forward. As a fun fact that I just learned today, the Nationals previously acquired Garcia in 2009 – for Ronnie Belliard! The primary return for the Nationals here is lefty Jake Eder, a 26 year old reliever who was actually born on the exact same day as Clayton Beeter – 10/9/1998. Also drafted in 2020, he was taken by his hometown Marlins in the fourth round out of Vanderbilt and immediately put up a huge 2021 at AA Pensacola, establishing himself as a legitimate prospect. However, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 and he was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger in 2023, then was sent on to the Angels for cash before the 2025 season, posting ERA's above 6.00 in the minors in each of the past three seasons. He has been developed through and through as a starting pitcher, never making a relief appearance in the minors, but has served as a long reliever in his brief major league time. He has held better command than Beeter, but the stuff is a touch lighter and he likely doesn't have enough weapons to work through a major league lineup multiple times. While he probably is what he is at this point, he could stick around for a few seasons in a long relief role and will give the Nationals some bullpen depth going forward. Meanwhile, Sam Brown is likely organizational depth more than anything else. A twelfth round pick out of Washington State in 2023, the Angels sent him straight to AA Rocket City where he struggled to hit for impact in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025, he has been incrementally better with an on-base-driven offensive profile. Brown is not a thumper with just nine career home runs and a .325 slugging percentage in 218 games, and likely never will be with high ground ball rates. He does, however, have a very professional approach at the plate that limits strikeouts and leads to a ton of walks. Given his limited defensive profile, it's unlikely he ever breaks through to a major league role without finding more impact in the bat. If the right combination of injuries happens in front of him and he's able to continue getting on base at a high clip, there is a chance he earns a cup of coffee in the majors. He's a disciplined enough hitter to handle major league pitching pretty confidently, with the main limitation being that not much may happen once the ball does come off his bat.

Trade 3
Tigers receive:
    - RHP Kyle Finnegan (age 33): 4.38 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 32/14 K/BB in 39 IP
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Josh Randall (age 22): 3.92 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 70/15 K/BB in 80.1 IP at A-/A+
    - RHP R.J. Sales (age 22): 2.71 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 63/17 K/BB in 66.1 IP at Low A
From a fan perspective, this is probably the Nationals' biggest trade of the deadline. Kyle Finnegan was a veritable Mike Rizzo masterclass, having never reached the majors after seven seasons in the A's' minor league system and signing with the Nationals as a minor league free agent in 2020. It was a bit unusual that he signed a major league contract with the team, but it worked out in spades as he went on to save 108 games in five and a half seasons, the second most in Washington Nationals history behind Chad Cordero. He'll join the Tigers for the stretch run as a high leverage reliever that could be on the "last pitch of the World Series" watch list. In return, the Nationals received a pair of low minors pitchability arms from the Tigers' 2024 draft class. Josh Randall was a third round pick out of the University of San Diego last year and has spent most of 2025 at Low A Lakeland, where he controlled the strike zone well but was more hittable than you'd hope for a college arm in Low A. He made one successful start at High A West Michigan before the trade and will report to High A Wilmington to start. Interestingly, Randall was more of a power arm early in his college career and has gradually shifted to becoming a command and control type. The fastball still comes in hard, touching 98 at peak, but its run and sink hasn't missed a ton of bats and also hasn't generated as many ground balls as hoped. He adds a solid slider and was very effective in Low A, but he'll need to miss more barrels going forward to stick in the rotation. There's a shot he does so and becomes a back-end starter, though the likelier outcome is that of a multi inning reliever whose stuff takes a step forward in short stints while maintaining above average command from a sidearm slot. R.J. Sales, the Tigers' tenth round pick in the same draft out of UNC Wilmington, has had a similar start to his career. He's pitched exclusively at Low A Lakeland, where he has been excellent over sixteen appearances (fifteen starts) albeit often against younger competition. He'll start off at Low A Fredericksburg, but I expect the Nationals to promote him to Wilmington before the end of the season. Sales has somewhat lighter stuff but has shown above average command to dice up Low A hitters. Unlike Randall, a sidearmer, Sales comes straight over the top and "looks" more like a starter. He has been up to 96 and has a similar projection as a back-end starter/long reliever. Between the two, expect one to exceed expectations and one to fall short, so hopefully we'll get one back-end starter out of this pair. If either Randall or Sales can stick around and give the Nationals a few full seasons in the back of the rotation, even if the other never reaches the majors, that's a successful trade for half a season of Kyle Finnegan.

Trade 4
Cubs receive:
    - RHP Michael Soroka (age 27): 4.87 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 87/24 K/BB in 81.1 IP
Nationals receive:
    - OF Christian Franklin (age 25): 8 HR, .265/.393/.427, 11 SB, 117 wRC+ at AAA
    - SS Ronny Cruz (age 18): 2 HR, .270/.314/.431, 10 SB, 91 wRC+ in ACL
While Kyle Finnegan has the most history in Washington, Michael Soroka was probably the biggest name traded from the Nationals from a production standpoint. Long ago a top prospect for the Braves, injuries derailed his career for a few seasons from 2020-2023 before he made a small comeback with the White Sox and eventually re-established himself as a legitimate major league arm this season in Washington. Just on a one year deal, he'll head to Chicago and fill whatever role the Cubs need from him, whether that's in the back of the rotation or in a hybrid relief role. Coming back to Washington is probably the best prospect package they got from any trade. Christian Franklin was initially a top prospect for the 2021 draft, but fell to the Cubs in the fourth round after an inconsistent junior season at Arkansas. Throughout his slow climb through the minors, he has shown extremely strong plate discipline leading to very high on-base percentages and reasonable strikeout rates. Long lauded for his raw power despite a modest 5'9" frame, he hasn't been able to consistently elevate the ball and has hit just 26 home runs in 307 minor league games. Set to turn 26 in the offseason, he may not still have the lofty upside he once possessed, but the raw traits are certainly there. He crushes left handed pitching and certainly has the batting eye to handle major league pitching in general, and if the Nationals can find a way to get him elevating the ball better (which they do not have a successful history of doing), he has a chance to be a real weapon at the plate. More likely, he profiles as a platoon outfielder who can take on a significant role and inject some juice into the Nationals' lineup against left handed starting pitchers while holding his own against righties on the days he gets those starts. While Franklin is just about ready, Ronny Cruz is much farther off. He signed with the Cubs as a relatively unheralded third round pick last year out of Miami Christian High School in Florida, then held his own in a 48 game stint in the Arizona Complex League this year as an 18 year old. There is massive upside here, albeit a long ways off. Cruz has huge raw power, blasting a baseball 108 MPH off the bat as a 17 year old at the 2024 MLB Draft Combine. While that didn't translate to home run power this year, with just two long balls in those 48 games, he did put up ten doubles and six triples making loud noises off his bat. He's understandably raw as a hitter with an unrefined approach at the plate and a lack of barrel accuracy, so the Nationals will let him take it slowly and he may spend all of 2026 at Low A Fredericksburg. Given that he was extremely young for a high school senior when he was drafted, he'll have plenty of time. Defensively, Cruz could end up at any number of positions and has a lot of physical and skill development ahead of him to determine where that may be.

Trade 5
Dodgers receive:
    - OF Alex Call (age 30): 3 HR, .274/.371/.386, 1 SB, 117 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Sean Paul Liñan (age 20): 2.78 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 101/31 K/BB in 74.1 IP at A-/A+/AAA
    - RHP Eriq Swan (age 23): 4.43 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 77/46 K/BB in 69 IP at High A
This one might be the most interesting trade the Nationals made. Alex Call will be 31 by the time this season ends, but he still has four years of team control remaining so he'll hit free agency for the first time at age 35 if the Dodgers tender him each year. I wouldn't think the Nationals were necessarily looking to move him, but ultimately they received an offer they couldn't refuse. Call isn't the flashiest player, but he has performed better and better against left handed pitching throughout his short career to the point where he'll fill an important role even on an always-deep Dodgers roster. Meanwhile, his outfield defense will keep him earning regular playing time to go along with being a .300+ hitter against lefties. It's a nice get for Los Angeles if he can keep from regressing. Sean Paul Liñan signed for just $17,500 out of Colombia in 2022, but gradually elevated himself into one of the top young pitchers in the Dodgers' low minors. From a crouched delivery with long arm action and nice extension, he slings the ball to the plate with a visually appealing delivery and plenty of deception. The fastball only sits low 90's but gets on hitters quick from that low slot, but his dastardly changeup steals the show with late action. If he wants to start, he'll need to find a more reliable breaking ball than his short slider, but to this point he has missed bats in bunches in the low minors. The command is still coming along, as is to be expected with a 20 year old pitcher, and will be another key in his development. If the two come together with his present stuff, he could be a mid rotation starter, with a more median outcome being a fastball/changeup reliever. It's certainly a profile that would play well in that latter role but the Nationals like his arm strength, changeup, and delivery at a very young age. He probably won't be up until 2027 unless the Nationals immediately shift him to the bullpen, which I doubt would happen. Lastly, Eriq Swan was a fourth round pick out of Middle Tennessee State in 2023, but injuries limited him to just 28.1 innings in 2024. Healthy in 2025, he has pitched the entire season at High A Great Lakes where he was recently joined by Liñan, running nice strikeout rates but walking too many hitters. He's a fireballer, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short stints. The Dodgers have really helped him bring along a nice slider as well, coming in with power and sweep to keep hitters off balance. There's a changeup too for a change of pace off his power fastball/slider combo. While he doesn't throw with much effort, he has really struggled with command and was running an ugly 15.4% walk rate at the time of the trade, leading to serious relief questions. Barring some magic from Washington's pitching development, he's likely a reliever in the majors where he can sit close to 100 with his fastball and pull the string on the slider. He might move quicker in that role and look the part of a Josh Staumont.

Thursday, July 3, 2025

2025 MLB Draft: Evaluating the Nationals' Options at the Top

The 2025 MLB Draft is upon us, and for the first time since 2010, the Nationals possess the first overall pick. It appears that two frontrunners have emerged – Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday and LSU lefty Kade Anderson – but nothing is ever certain in the draft. By my count, without having inside information, there are likely about five other names the Nationals are likely considering at the top. It's a class without a clear top prospect, as none of the draft's biggest names has done enough to separate himself this spring and every prospect comes with some sort of blemish, however small. We'll explore the seven options below.

SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Throughout the draft process, Ethan Holliday has been one of if not the most famous name in the class, and certainly so on the high school side. The son of former All Star Matt Holliday and brother of 2022 first overall pick and current Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, Ethan is a frontrunner to join his brother at the top. While his 2024 was more good than great, causing him to slip closer to the middle of the top ten prospects, he reasserted himself at the top with a strong spring blasting home runs left and right against Oklahoma high school pitching. Holliday stands out first and foremost for his power, easily plus from an ultra physical 6'4" frame reminiscent of his father. He's also a disciplined hitter with plenty of experience against top arms, though there is just enough swing and miss inside the strike zone to give some evaluators pause. Given the prodigious left handed power and a glove that will be enough to stick on the left side of the infield, likely at third base, it's clear that the Nationals aren't too concerned. He may not fly through the minors as quickly as his brother but he figures to be a star in the not-too-distant future. Brady House is at the beginning of his journey to establish himself as the team's long term answer at third base, but that's no reason to shy away from Holliday. One major factor here may be cost, as he does figure to be one of the most expensive players on the board with an Oklahoma State commitment in hand, where his uncle Josh is the head coach.

LHP Kade Anderson, Louisiana State
While Holliday has been in 1-1 discussions for years, Kade Anderson has only pushed his way into the middle of the conversation very recently. He may not be the best at any individual thing, steady performance capped with a complete game shutout in the College World Series Finals have proven that the sum of the parts rival any pitcher in the class. Listed at 6'2", 185 pounds, he's not small but still isn't the most physical arm in the class. Instead of reaching back for 100, he is content sitting in the low 90's with riding action from an otherwise normal fastball profile. His curveball has tremendous snap and keeps hitters off balance to say the least, while his newer cutter/slider has worked extremely well in addition. Anderson's changeup has also taken a step forward, giving him a full four pitch arsenal which he has great feel for. The command is also above average, which when combined with strong feel for pitching and ability to execute gives him the look of a frontline starter. With a classic starting pitching profile and a track record of performance in the SEC, Anderson is *exactly* how you would draw it up when looking for Mike Rizzo's dream pitcher at the top of the draft. He has been compared to unassuming but quietly dominant lefty aces like Cole Hamels and Max Fried. He is every bit as likely as Holliday to be the Nationals' pick at the top of the draft.

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]
Ironically, Ethan Holliday isn't the only son of a Major Leaguer, small town Oklahoma high school shortstop on the Nats' radar for their first pick. While Holliday and Anderson are the frontrunners, Eli Willits may represent the next most likely pick and was actually invited to Nationals Park for a pre-draft workout. While not quite as tooled up as his Stillwater counterpart, Willits represents a more balanced profile that leaves scouts unable to find holes. As you'd expect from the son of Reggie Willits, he brings a high baseball IQ to the field despite being one of the youngest players in the class. Willits is a switch hitter with an approach at the plate well beyond his years, boasting a long track record of showcase performance under his belt and little fear of older pitching. Standing 6'1", he has some power but doesn't project to be a slugger, with 15-20 home runs per season looking more likely alongside high on-base percentages. It's a similar story at shortstop, where he is a sound defender and figures to stick until a twitcher, more explosive defender pushes him to third base. His Oklahoma commitment (where he would play for his father) figures to make him an expensive sign, but likely a bit cheaper than Holliday.

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]
Seth Hernandez is right there with Willits in terms of the top non-Holliday or Anderson frontrunners. No high school right handed pitcher has ever been the first overall pick, but Hernandez is no ordinary high school righty and the Nationals do seem to have some interest. Simply put, he's how you draw it up. Standing 6'4", he's an athletic specimen who could be an early draft pick as a shortstop if he wasn't such a good pitcher. The fastball has hit 100 several times and comfortably sits in the mid to upper 90's, already giving him the look of a big league pitcher. His feel for spin was previously a bit of a knock against him, but he's sharpened up his breaking balls this spring and now looks to have a plus curveball and above average slider. The changeup has always been a weapon, giving him a full arsenal of big league pitches. While the command isn't pinpoint, Hernandez repeats his delivery well and hits his spots better than most high school arms, especially those with stuff as loud as his. High school pitchers, especially right handers, are among the riskiest picks you can make, but the Southern California product checks just about every box and will require much less development than most. He's committed to Vanderbilt and also figures to be expensive, but it seems that many of the teams picking immediately behind the Nationals are focused elsewhere and their main competition could come from teams picking outside the top five.

LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
If the Nationals go college pitcher, Kade Anderson is the clear frontrunner. However, Liam Doyle has arguably the loudest fastball in the country and I'm sure Mike Rizzo has checked in. The Angels, picking second, appear to be very interested and many mock drafts have him landing in Los Angeles. Doyle, a New Hampshire native, began his career at Coastal Carolina, transferred to Ole Miss for his sophomore year, then bounced to Tennessee as a junior this year. The fastball really ticked up and he wound up with one of the most eye popping seasons in the country, striking out a whopping 42.6% of his opponents on the way to an NCAA-second best 164 strikeouts, behind only Anderson's 180. The fastball steals the show in the mid 90's, peaking a 99, with explosive life through the zone that keeps hitters coming up empty even when they know it's coming. He has a traditional slider as well as more of a cutter, both above average pitches that will keep pro hitters off his fastball. While he doesn't use it as much, his splitter looks like it could be another solid pitch as he gains feel. While Anderson and Doyle both stand 6'2", Anderson is more of a string bean while Doyle brings a stockier build. He's not a great athlete and throws with some effort, creating some reliever risk, but pounded the zone with a solid 8.3% walk rate this year and held his velocity deep into starts. He could rocket to Nationals Park even though his edges are a littler rougher than Anderson's.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
A couple months ago, Jamie Arnold may have actually been a frontrunner for this spot alongside Ethan Holliday, but his star has faded just enough to push him closer to the back half of the top ten picks. Still, this is a loud profile and one the Nationals surely have watched closely all spring. Many a sidearming left hander has been compared to Chris Sale, and Arnold fits the bill. His low to mid 90's fastball reaches 97 at peak and runs hard to the arm side from his ultra low slot. The slider dives across the plate in the opposite direction, off the bat giving him two easy plus pitches that could get big league hitters out today. To reach his ceiling as a front of the rotation starter, he'll need to continue getting comfortable with his changeup, which is making progress but isn't quite at the level of consistency of his primary two pitches. Unlike most lefties with explosive stuff, the Tampa native also commands his arsenal very well, running a very solid 7.7% walk rate in 2025 and giving him a very well rounded profile. While he wasn't quite as electric down the stretch as some of the other college pitchers at the top of this class, his combination of stuff, deception, command, and handedness is hard to find. Arnold would likely be a bit cheaper than some of the names above him here and would enable the Nationals to spend big on a later pick.

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Aiva Arquette is more or less the consensus top college hitting prospect in the class, with significant heat linking him to the Mariners at #3 or potentially even the Angels at #2. However, after drafting fellow college infielder Seaver King with their first pick last year, the Nationals do appear to be looking elsewhere for their pick at #1. Still, for an organization that has really, really struggled to develop bats, we shouldn't look past the possibility of Washington getting something relatively big league ready in that department. Arquette had a fantastic year at Oregon State and looks the part of a well-rounded prospect with few holes and plenty of upside. Standing 6'4", he has plus power and got to it consistently in 2025 as he showed the ability to elevate with authority. The hit tool is probably closer to average than plus, as he showed some in-zone swing and miss and can chase occasionally, but there is nothing glaring in that department and he still got on base at a .461 clip this year (and a nice .357 looking back to the Cape Cod League in 2024). He's big for a shortstop, but has impressed scouts with his actions there this spring and figures to stick at least at the outset of his career. If not, he'd be a well above average third baseman. In all, this profile is not too dissimilar to a right handed Ethan Holliday, with a bit better defense and a slightly less polished approach relative to his age group. Like Arnold and potentially Doyle or Willits, he could be a bit cheaper and save the Nationals some money for later rounds.

Dark Horse Candidates
At this point, I have a hard time seeing the Nationals selecting a player not listed above. That said, there are a few that have likely at least been brought up in draft room conversations in Washington and could conceivably fit the bill. Shortstop Billy Carlson, a teammate of Seth Hernandez at Corona High School, is a strong athlete with an elite glove. He has grown into more and more impact as he's matured, though he might be more of a .260 hitter than a .300 hitter at maturity. There are some parallels to Masyn Winn here and he likely finds himself closer to the back of the top ten picks. Right hander Kyson Witherspoon had a fantastic season at Oklahoma, running his fastball up to 99 while showing real feel for spin and keeping the walks way down. The Nationals likely feel that they can get similar upside in a left handed package, and Witherspoon may fall out of the top ten picks. Auburn's Ike Irish has been pushing his way up boards as of late, showing arguably the most potent bat in all of college baseball. It's very real power combined with strong bat to ball that makes him a virtual lock to hit at a high level in the big leagues. However, as a part time catcher who may fit better in an outfield corner, he doesn't fit the up-the-middle profile the Nationals and most teams seek at the top of the draft. Shortstop JoJo Parker has been another buzzy name late in the process, wowing scouts in Southern Mississippi with one of the most complete offensive profiles in the country. He's physical, shows above average power, and hits everything thrown at him. Like Ethan Holliday, he may slide to third base, but the bat is for real. He may not get out of the top ten picks. Lastly, this would probably be the biggest stretch in this dark horse section but UC Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner has quietly re-emerged as a premium pitching prospect. A 1-1 candidate before the season, he slipped back towards the middle of the first round as his stuff looked more ordinary, but he got hot down the stretch and is back to looking like himself. It's plenty of fastball up to 98 while his changeup might be the best cambio in the class. Bremner's slider isn't quite the wipeout pitch you look for at the top of the draft, but he makes up for it with above average command and a solid pitcher's frame. It's a traditional profile that fits the Mike Rizzo mold, though he likely fits just outside the top ten picks.

Friday, September 20, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

The Nationals surprised many by going under slot on Seaver King, who saved them over $800,000 with the first pick and laid the groundwork for the rest of their class, which included an extra CBA pick at #39 acquired in the Hunter Harvey trade. While King had the largest bonus and will be the biggest name from the class, perhaps the biggest gamble will be second rounder Luke Dickerson who signed for one of the largest over slot bonuses in the entire class from any team. With a system chock full of outfield depth, the Nationals focused on catchers and infielders early and drafted just two outfielders in the entire class – eighth rounder Sam Petersen and eighteenth rounder Teo Banks. I'm lukewarm on this class overall, which includes some very high variance players like Caleb Lomavita, Dickerson, and Sir Jamison Jones, as well as some lower ceiling, "safe bet" types like King, Kevin Bazzell, and Jackson Kent.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-10: SS Seaver King, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $5.95 million. Signing bonus: $5.15 million ($803,800 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #17. Baseball America: #17.
With names like Braden Montgomery, Bryce Rainer, and Trey Yesavage still on the board, this pick surprised some in the industry but it made more sense as the Nationals saved over $800,000, signing him for just over the slot value of the #14 pick. Seaver King, besides having one of the best baseball names in the draft, brings a really interesting profile to the table. He began his career at Division II Wingate, then transferred to Wake Forest after hitting .399 over two seasons. Any concerns about his ability to hit ACC pitching were assuaged when he smashed his way to a .424/.479/.524 line in sixteen games in the Cape Cod League, success which carried over to a strong senior season with the Demon Deacons. King is listed at 6', 195 pounds and doesn't have much projection on his slender frame, but he packs a lot of punch. The Athens, Georgia native is an extremely aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact regardless, leading to tons of balls in play with low strikeout and walk rates. He covers the whole plate effectively and, as mentioned, had zero issues with the large jump in competition from Division II to the Cape/ACC, so his combination of pitch recognition and bat to ball give him an above average hit tool. Meanwhile, he doesn't look it but there is very significant raw power in the tank. King is mostly a line drive hitter but the ball jumps off his bat like few others in the class, showing plus raw power that plays closer to average or above average in games due to the approach. Key for him going forward will be becoming just a bit more selective at the plate, better finding pitches he can lift and drive while also adding a few more walks onto the stat line. On the other side of the ball, he's a plus runner who has seen playing time all over the diamond. The hope is that he can stick at shortstop, where he has enough arm strength and range to make it work if he can refine his glovework, but he could end up at second base, third base, or center field. Wherever he does play, he should be a net-positive on defense in addition to potentially becoming a 20+ home run hitter with high batting averages and plenty of stolen bases. He had no trouble with the jump to minor league pitching, where he hit .295/.367/.385 with ten stolen bases and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over twenty games for Low A Fredericksburg, but the power didn't show up in the small sample.

CBA-39: C Caleb Lomavita, California {video}
Slot value: $2.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.33 million ($70,000 below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #18.
Despite being a college bat, historically the safest demographic, Caleb Lomavita was one of the most polarizing prospects in the first round due to his unconventional profile. He has been one of the better catchers in college baseball over the past couple seasons and at times in 2024 was projected as high as the middle of the first round. He surprisingly slid to the Nationals' CBA pick, where I was sure he was going to require an above-slot bonus, but he wound up signing slightly below slot value which makes this an outstanding pick no matter where you stand on him. In fact, given the signing bonus, I'd say this was my favorite pick of the draft for the Nationals. Lomavita, like Seaver King, is an extremely aggressive hitter that swings at anything and everything, in fact running even higher chase rates and even lower walk rates than his first round counterpart. Also similar to King, he has strong bat to ball ability and limits his strikeouts despite the high chase rate, though he did swing and miss more in 2024 and his strikeout rate jumped to a still-respectable 16.7% after coming in at a strong 11.1% a year ago. Despite this, he has a long history of hitting advanced pitching and slashed .314/.357/.442 over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. The barrel chested, 5'11", 200 pound Honolulu native can really drive the ball too, with above average raw power that he taps consistently in games with his leveraged right handed swing that gets long through the zone and puts nice loft on the ball. Similar to King, if he can get more selective at the plate (and he has a longer way to go in that regard), he could become an all around force at the plate. The upside here is 20-25 home runs per season with decent batting averages. Lomavita is also extremely athletic for a catcher, with solid run times and impressive fluidity and flexibility behind the plate. His glovework itself is a bit raw, but given his physical talent he should be a solid defensive catcher once he cleans that up. The athleticism elevates his ceiling on both sides of the ball and if you can get the approach right, I think he could be a very special hitter. But the approach does need a lot of work. Lomavita hit .213/.310/.246 with a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seventeen games in a brief stint at Low A Fredericksburg.

2-44: SS Luke Dickerson, Morris Knolls HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $2.12 million. Signing bonus: $3.8 million ($1.68 million above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #49. Baseball America: #56.
This was the pick that shaped the Nationals' draft strategy. Scouts had to wait for the North Jersey weather to warm up, but once it did, Luke Dickerson had one of the most impressive springs of any high schooler in the country. That led to a meteoric rise up draft boards, moving from the middle of day two up into day one territory and eventually into second round projections as the draft rolled around, but the Nationals saw him as a clear-cut first round talent and paid him as such, paying him roughly the slot value of the #22 pick to steer him away from a UVA commitment. Dickerson had a senior year to remember, winning both a hockey and a baseball state championship three months apart and once scoring five (!) goals in one game on the ice. He is a powderkeg athlete that has packed a ton of muscle into his 5'11" frame over the past year without sacrificing any quickness, making for a superb package to build from. Dickerson has a quick right handed swing that naturally produces above average power he tapped much more often in games in 2024, in fact tying Mike Trout's New Jersey high school record with eighteen home runs as a senior. With little wasted movement and an accurate barrel, he was a monster that North Jersey pitching could not get out. However, he's unproven against more advanced pitching and if there's one hole in his profile, it's that we don't know how he'll handle the jump in competition. Dickerson is also a plus runner with excellent glovework on the infield, though his fringy arm will move off shortstop to second base. With his quickness, athleticism, and polish, he could become an above average or even plus defender at the keystone. There's a ton of upside here, and the Nationals spent the rest of the draft scrapping together bonus pool space to pay for it.

3-79: C Kevin Bazzell, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: $980,300. Signing bonus: $980,300.
My rank: #90. MLB Pipeline: #55. Baseball America: #68.
I was a bit lower on Kevin Bazzell than much of the industry, but he's still a very nice addition alongside Caleb Lomavita to a shallow depth chart behind the plate in the Nationals system. Bazzell initially enrolled at Dallas Baptist, but transferred out after a semester and didn't play his freshman spring at Texas Tech. He's been one of the toughest outs in the Big 12 since then, playing himself into the second tier of college catchers for the 2024 draft. The Dallas-area native is an elite contact hitter, putting up the highest contact rate of any of the 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500 this year. I'll repeat that – he made contact with 89.5% of the pitches he swung at, more than any draft-eligible college bat with significant interest. This is a man who never, ever whiffs, especially in the zone, with a simple, effortless right handed swing that just flicks the barrel at the ball and uses his natural strength to send it deep. The power isn't quite as impressive, with fringe-average pop that amounted to just six home runs in 2024. If he wants to earn regular playing time in the bigs, he'll have to find a way to dramatically increase his power output as he switches from metal to wood bats, something I'm not sold he'll do especially in a Nationals system that does not develop hitters well. If he can, though, there's solid upside as an everyday catcher that can knock 10-15 home runs per season with high averages, perhaps something similar to a taller Paul Lo Duca. Bazzell only began catching in high school and is a bit raw behind the plate, but it's nothing egregious and his athleticism and arm strength should hold down the fort until he polishes up the glovework a little bit. The bat certainly profiles better behind the plate than elsewhere, such as in a corner outfield spot, and he should be able to make that work. He hit .273/.433/.386 with a 10/11 strikeout to walk ratio over fourteen games at Low A Fredericksburg, showing off the plus hit tool as well as the questionable power.

4-108: LHP Jackson Kent, Arizona {video}
Slot value: $676,000. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($51,000 below slot value).
My rank: #178. MLB Pipeline: #136. Baseball America: #138.
Most years, the Nationals draft a pitchability college arm early on, especially a lefty like Jake Bennett (2022) and Dustin Saenz (2021). This year, it was Jackson Kent and he'll fit right into a system that loves to develop these types. Kent redshirted his freshman season at Arizona, served as a swingman as a sophomore, then had his best year yet as the Wildcats' ace in 2024. The stuff is pretty average all around. His fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95 with nice riding life, making it a solid average pitch. From there, Kent has a full arsenal of secondaries including a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. The slider is the best breaker with average life and velocity, while his curveball is a bit loopier and serves as a get me over type. The cutter provides a nice alternate look from his fastball, while his changeup is his lone above average pitch with late, heavy fade. He relies heavily on that changeup and it should continue to help him miss bats and work through lineups in pro ball while the Nationals look to bring the rest of his arsenal along. The 6'3" lefty gets down the mound well with an athletic, repeatable delivery that could project a tick more of velocity, pounding the strike zone with above average command to help all of his pitches play up. Kent also has a moderately low release height with solid extension, adding a little extra hop to his pitches. With a durable frame, good command, and a deep arsenal with an out pitch, Kent projects as a solid #4 or #5 starter who can eat innings and pitch in the big leagues a long time.

5-141: SS Randal Diaz, Indiana State {video}
Slot value: $490,500. Signing bonus: $420,000 ($70,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Randal Diaz is a nice find for the Nationals if a bit off the radar. He has performed for three seasons at Indiana State and had his best year in 2024, when he was named First Team All-MVC and finished the season on a 32 game hitting streak. Diaz has a strong, compact right handed swing that produces solid raw power without selling out. That simple swing helps him make plenty of contact and produce consistently, keeping his strikeout rates down and his on-base percentages up. While he didn't face the strongest competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, he impressed at the Lexington Regional where he went 7-18 (.389 AVG) with a pair of home runs against Kentucky, Illinois, and Western Michigan. ISU's everyday shortstop in 2024, he was drafted as such and has plenty of arm strength to stick on the left side of the infield. He may be forced to move to third base if he slows down at all, where his arm will play and his more methodical actions will fit well. The Puerto Rican has the chance to be a solid-all around contributor with average to above average tools across the board if it breaks right, showing consistent on-base ability, some power, and a net-positive glove.

6-170: RHP Davian Garcia, Florida Gulf Coast {video}
Slot value: $372,300. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($52,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Davian Garcia brings sneaky upside to the Nationals, and he's also the team's lone day two over slot signing. Garcia has been all around the state of Florida, having begun his career at Division II Flagler in 2022, transferring to Pasco Hernando JC in 2023, then finally spending 2024 at Florida Gulf Coast where he transitioned nicely to Division I competition. The Tampa native brings tremendous arm strength with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and touches 98 at peak, coming in with lots of riding life to make it explode on hitters. The fastball is his best pitch right now, but he does have a solid slider in the mid 80's that could sharpen up into a real out pitch. Garcia has long arm action that to less experienced hitters could make the ball tough to pick up, though more advanced hitters might get the opposite effect and get a better look at his grip. He has pounded the zone effectively at FGCU, which can be a concern with guys with his arm action, and has stayed healthy thus far, another potential concern. Garcia will have to continue to hold both his command and his health together with the larger workload in pro ball, and the Nationals will look to help him refine his secondary stuff as well. The arm strength and plus fastball give him plenty to work off, and he's also young for the class and won't turn 21 until October. Garcia has a very good shot to be the best pitcher in this Nationals draft class when it's all said and done.

7-200: RHP Robert Cranz, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $290,300. Signing bonus: $190,000 ($100,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Robert Cranz marks the Nationals first significant under slot bonus since the first round, and he figures to be the quick moving relief type we know they like. Cranz spent two seasons at Wichita State before transferring to Oklahoma State in 2024, where he finished with a 1.26 ERA and allowed just 25 baserunners in 28.2 innings. The fastball is not overwhelming by college reliever standards, sitting in the low 90's and topping out in the mid 90's, but it plays up with huge riding action that creates a lot of empty swings. He can cut it when he needs to as well, or turn it over into a true slider with late bite. Cranz stands out more for his ability to command and execute his pitches, working up, down, in, and out effectively when he needs to. His feel for his slider is especially notable and will serve him well in pro ball as he works it below the zone or out on the edges to drive chases in short stints. He's the kind of pitcher than can effectively pitch forwards or backwards. The 6'3" righty is also plenty physical and if it weren't for his complete lack of track record going more than a couple innings at a time, you'd almost think he could start. That seems unlikely though, and instead he figures to move quickly through the minors as a strike throwing, high pitchability type with two above average pitches. He already made quick work of Low A hitters, tossing six shutout innings over four appearances, allowing just three baserunners while striking out seven for Fredericksburg.

8-230: OF Sam Petersen, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $230,900. Signing bonus: $230,900.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #205. Baseball America: #184.
There are some similarities here to Nationals 2021 seventh rounder and current center fielder Jacob Young, albeit with a bit more power and a bit less defense. He's a three year starter at Iowa that was off to a hot start in 2024 before shin splints cut his season short in April, but the Nationals saw plenty to make him their full slot eighth round pick. He has a tight right handed swing that produces fringe-average raw power, enough to keep pitchers honest and slug .579 over the past two seasons at Iowa. There's a bit more swing and miss than you'd like in this profile, but he's a pretty patient hitter that keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable rate and performed well against strong pitching in the Cape Cod League (.297/.412/.369). Overall, he projects as a fringe-average hitter with fringe-average power. Peterson is a plus runner who has stolen 37 bases in 40 tries over the past two seasons and added fifteen more on the Cape, adding an important dimension to his offensive game, and he has a chance to play center field in pro ball. That gives him an outside shot to play every day in the majors similar to Young, though he's not quite the defender that Young is. His most likely role is as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, though his below average arm makes right field more of a stretch than center field. Petersen hit well in a brief stint at Low A Fredericksburg, slashing .364/.400/.591 with a 6/1 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games.

12-350: RHP Alexander Meckley, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #421.
Alexander Meckley brings a big arm and a ton of talent to the Nats organization, making for a really nice find in the twelfth round. Meckley is a semi-local guy, having grown up just over the border in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, only about sixty miles north of Washington. He began his career at Potomac State JC in Keyser, West Virginia, where he developed into an ace and earned the opportunity to transfer to Coastal Carolina as one of the more intriguing incoming transfer arms in the country. He started strong in Conway, holding a 2.60 ERA through his first five starts, but allowed 25 runs in just ten innings over his next four and wound up in the bullpen. Meckley has big stuff. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 97 in relief, coming in with hard riding action and chewing up bats when he locates it. He adds a pair of hard breaking balls that look like potential above average pitches when he spins them right, though they're inconsistent can get hit when he hangs them. Meckley doesn't kill himself with walks but his control is far ahead of his command, leading to him getting hit harder than his stuff says he should. The Nationals could choose to be patient and stretch him out as a starter, where he'll have to add a changeup and refine his command, but he does look durable enough to do so. The 6'2" righty will likely end up in the bullpen in the long run, where he can focus on his fastball and breaking balls and just gas hitters up. Meckley is on the younger side for the class and turned 21 just before the draft, giving Washington a little extra time to play with his development. Working as a reliever in his pro debut, he tossed 5.2 shutout innings over three appearances while striking out five against four walks for Low A Fredericksburg.

14-410: RHP Yoel Tejeda Jr., Florida State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($75,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Nationals went big in the fourteenth round. Really big, actually – 6'8". Yoel Tejeda pitched one season each at Florida and Florida State, where he combined for unremarkable numbers: 5.74 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 26/29 K/BB in 42.1 innings. Ironically, he's been much, much better in two seasons in the Cape Cod League (3.52 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 37/14 K/BB in 30.2 innings). Tejeda's fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97 at peak with plenty of running action. He has a tight slider with nice finish, then adds a splitter that he has solid feel for. Despite pitching at two of the premier programs in college baseball, the Nationals believe the South Florida native is just scratching the surface of what he could be, with good athleticism and an unbelievably projectable frame at a young age, only turning 21 shortly before the draft. Tejeda already has close to average control and as he continues growing into his massive frame, he could wind up with average or better command in time. He projects as a potential back-end starter at peak, though he has little starting experience to this point and will need considerable refinement to get to that ceiling.

15-440: C Sir Jamison Jones, St. Rita of Cascia HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($350,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #372.
Besides having one of the coolest names in the draft, Sir Jamison Jones also took home the Nationals' largest signing bonus after the fourth round, signing away from an Oklahoma State commitment for early fifth round money. Jones is big and physical, to say the least. Clocking in at 6'3", 225 pounds, he has a big league body that could go head to head with any prospect in the system. That translates to big time power potential from the right side, and he's already making strides towards tapping that power more in games. For now the swing can get rigid and lack loft, but it looked a bit better in 2024 than it had in the past. Jones also has a raw approach at the plate and will need to prove himself better against more advanced stuff, so he may take a little longer to work his way out of the low minors. His physicality translates behind the plate, where as with his bat, he's a bit raw. The Chicago-area product has a strong arm that makes up somewhat for a slower transfer, and he'll need to clean up his glovework handling pro pitching staffs. There's a very wide range between Jones' ceiling and his floor, with the possibility he ends up anywhere from a middle of the lineup catcher to a power hitting first baseman to a flameout who never reaches the majors.

19-560: RHP Ryan Minckler, Niagara {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Ryan Minckler didn't take your typical path to pro ball. He actually grew up in Bangkok, Thailand, then moved to New Hampshire in high school. He began his college career at UVA but never made it into a game, so he transferred to Niagara where he has acquitted himself nicely. Minckler's fastabll sits around 90 but ticked up late in the season, reaching 96 in the Stillwater Regional. He has an average slider with nice depth, but his changeup/splitter combination steals the show with bottomless fading action. He controls the strike zone well and has a chance to start in pro ball with his deep arsenal, physical frame, and repeatable delivery. His newfound velocity will be helpful as well if he can keep it on the right side of 90 over longer stints in pro ball, though the idea of Minckler sitting 94-95 in short stints while pitching off the changeup and splitter seems like a very nice fallback option.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

2024 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at pick #10

A year ago, the Nationals took picked second overall and took LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, who in my opinion was the very best player available on draft day. In fact, he's the most impressive hitter I have ever seen at the college level, standing up to such names as Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Andrew Vaughn, Wyatt Langford, and Adley Rutschman. In 2024, the Nationals actually won the draft lottery and the opportunity to pick first overall, but because they picked inside the lottery last year and are a revenue sharing team, they got bumped down to #10.

Mike Rizzo used to have a type. In the past, he leaned heavily on established college starting pitchers like Cade Cavalli, Erick Fedde, and Dane Dunning and buy-low options coming off injuries or other issues like Seth Romero, Mason Denaburg, and Lucas Giolito. Lately, he has pivoted towards prep bats early and took Brady House and Elijah Green in back to back first rounds in 2021 and 2022. Now, with a relatively imbalanced farm system brimming with top-end bats (especially outfield bats) but nearly completely devoid of pitching, it's hard to peg what direction he'll go. If the draft were to be held today, there would be three names Nationals fans could comfortably write off: West Virginia second baseman JJ Wetherholt, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, and Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz. They are more or less the consensus top three players in the draft and are not in a position to make it to #10.

So who does that leave open for the Nationals? Even with those big three bats more or less out of the question unless the underperform this spring, it's still a class chock full of bats, specifically college bats in this range. Would the Nationals want to further add to a position of strength, or try to fill out the bone-dry pitching pipeline? My answer of course is that you never draft for need, and should always draft the best player available, but we'll see what Rizzo chooses to do. There are also a few college arms that look to make sense in that range and you know Rizzo would love to get his hands on one, while a couple of prep bats also figure to hang around that range if we want to go back to that well. Here are ten options, along with their rank on my recent top 40.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
If I were in charge, this is the name I'd have circled. For now, I'm fully on board the Jac Caglianone train should he be available at pick #10, which he very well may be. Caglianone is a two-way player with ridiculous physical ability on both sides of the ball, and once he drops one to focus on the other, he could become a monster (if you don't already consider him one). Standing 6'5", 245 pounds with long arms and legs, he is ridiculously strong and creates as much leverage as anybody. That plays into plus-plus power which helped him set the single season BBCOR-era (since 2011) home run record with 33 bombs in just 71 games, good for a .738 slugging percentage. He can wallop towering moonshots to the pull side or easily clear the left field fence for backside home runs. At the same time, he is one of the most aggressive hitters in college baseball and freely chases, and that attribute may be the key in getting the first nine teams to pass on him. Still, even with the free swinging mentality, he runs solid contact rates and SEC pitchers simply could not get him out last year (.299/.370/.684 in SEC play, chock full of pro-caliber pitching). Should he clean up his approach even just a little, he'd really round out what's looking to be a fearsome future middle of the lineup in DC. However, his future may very well be on the mound, and heaven knows the Nationals need that. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch triple digits with run, further showcasing his freakish physical ability. His slider and changeup are more average to above average pitches rather than plus, but if he gives up hitting to focus on pitching, you can see them taking a step forward. For now, the biggest issue on the mound is his inconsistency in repeating his delivery, as he sometimes looks like he's still growing into his ultra lanky frame. That gives him below average command and creates some reliever risk. Fellow Gator AJ Puk comes to mind as a comp, though Puk had a better breaking ball at this stage.

OF Charlie Condon, Georgia. My rank: #7.
The Nationals have some serious bats coming up through the pipeline, but most of them are right handed beyond James Wood and Daylen Lile. Like Jac Caglianone, Charlie Condon would give them some serious left handed thunder to balance that out. Despite sitting out his 2022 freshman season at Georgia, Condon exploded onto the scene with a massive 2023 in which he slashed .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games. He's a hulking presence in the box at 6'6" with man strength, deploying that size into plus-plus raw power that he taps consistently in games without over-swinging. A pretty patient hitter, his approach has played up against high level competition as he demolished SEC pitching last year (.339/.436/.804, 16 HR in 30 games) and struck out just 8% of the time on the Cape over the summer. Still, he does show some swing and miss, especially against quality offspeed stuff, so he'll look to even that out a bit in 2024. If the Nationals were to draft him, they'd have to really believe in his bat, as he'd likely end up a first baseman in this system. He's a fringy runner who plays a reasonably solid corner outfield, but the Nationals have so many outfielders that it's hard to see him beating out guys like Wood, Dylan Crews, Elijah Green, and Robert Hassell from a defensive perspective. I think the bat will profile just fine at first base and he could anchor Nationals lineups for years to come.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #9.
Right now, Chase Burns is looking like the best pitcher available in the draft so there's a very good chance he's gone well before the Nationals pick at #10. However, pitchers are fickle and you never know, and we do know Mike Rizzo would love to balance out the system a bit with a legitimate future ace like Burns. A famous prospect coming out of high school in the Nashville area, he made it to campus at Tennessee and shined for two years before transferring to Wake Forest this year. In high school, he was primarily known for his arm strength and electric stuff, but he has smoothed out his delivery and is looking more and more like a starting pitcher. The stuff is as explosive as ever. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and hit 101 in a pre-spring tuneup for the Demon Deacons, and it shows nice carrying life to boot. However, the triple digit fastball is only his second best pitch. Burns rips off a plus-plus slider around 90 with hard, nasty bite that could strike out major league hitters right now. Now at Wake Forest under the tutelage of renowned pitching coach Corey Muscara, his next step is to continue incorporating his curveball and changeup more into the arsenal, and that's certainly something Rizzo would like to see. While he's still control over command, Burns has been in the zone more and more and projects to stick as a starting pitcher. If the command and changeup can each tick up a half grade or so, he could be a frontline guy.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank #10.
Sure, the Nationals' system is chock full of young outfield prospects. But Konnor Griffin bears so much resemblance to the guys Mike Rizzo has targeted in the past that it's hard to rule him out here. Griffin is by many accounts the top prospect in a down year for high schoolers, on my list clocking in one spot ahead of second place PJ Morlando, who didn't crack this article but would certainly make sense. Griffin was originally a member of the 2025 class, but he would have turned 19 in the middle of his senior season and reclassified to 2024, where he is now age-appropriate. If nothing else, this kid is tooled up. He brings premium physicality and athleticism in an ideal 6'4" frame. That translates into big bat speed and potential plus power from the right side, which he taps consistently against good pitching. He has a long track record of performance despite the reclassification, with plenty of experience against higher level arms. The Mississippi native didn't quite dominate the way some scouts hoped last summer, but he's 17 years old and that's just about the only "hole" in his profile. Griffin's athleticism translates to the field, where his plus speed, plus arm, and shortstop background could make him an above average or better defender in center field. This could represent a less extreme version of Elijah Green if the Nats stick him into their system.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #12.
Hagen Smith isn't quite the prototypical arm that Mike Rizzo likes to target early in the draft, but if Chase Burns is off the board at this point and he still wants to add pitching, it's hard to ignore the loud package Smith brings to the table. Like Burns, he was a very well-known prospect as an East Texas prep in 2021 but made it to campus at Arkansas, where he has continued to elevate his game. Smith's fastball has crept up steadily during his time in Fayetteville. It hovered around 90 and topped out at 95 in high school, but he was consistently in the low 90's early in his college career, reached the upper 90's in short stints as a sophomore, then reportedly touched triple digits in fall practice at the outset of his junior year. It's a running fastball from a lower slot, making it difficult to square up and lift. His slider gives him a second easy plus pitch with late, deep break to seemingly fall off the table and confound hitters. He's added a cutter to play off his fastball, which he is still working on, while his splitter has flashed considerable promise even if it's not the most consistent pitch just yet. Like Burns, Smith has smoothed out his delivery at Arkansas and that, combined with strength gains on his projectable 6'3" frame, has helped him unlock more than a few ticks of velocity. The next step will be command, as he still gets disjointed at times and loses feel for his release point, leading to below average command. Because of that, and because he's bigger and stronger, Burns probably has the better shot to stick in a big league rotation, but Smith is the better athlete and I see him continuing to rocket up prospect lists as he develops. He's also extremely young for a college junior, not turning 21 until a month after the draft, giving him extra time to figure it out. The fastball/slider combination is absolutely electric and I believe he will continue to improve.

RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa. My rank: #14.
Rounding out the big three power arms, all showing electric fastball/slider combinations, is Brody Brecht, the best athlete of the bunch. Like Burns and Smith, he was also a well-known prospect as a prep in the Des Moines area who made it to campus at Iowa, but it wasn't just baseball pulling him to Iowa City. Brecht was also a member of the Hawkeye football team, but as his baseball career has continued to take off, he dropped the gridiron to focus on pitching. Heck, if I could throw as hard as he could, I would too. Brecht sits upper 90's and regularly pops into triple digits, giving him as far as I know the hardest fastball in college baseball. The pitch lacks typical run and ride, rather coming in with some cutting action instead. The velocity is more impressive than the shape, but at 100, you don't need explosive ride. As with Burns and Smith, he rips off a nasty slider that parks around 90 or above with hard, late, two-plane bite. It's a plus-plus pitch. Also like Burns and Smith, Brecht is still working on his curveball and changeup, which aren't quite as loud but still show promise. And like Smith, Brecht has struggled a bit with command. If the Nationals are going to take the risk here, they're going to have to be comfortable with converting his incredible athleticism into more repeatable mechanics without sacrificing the electric stuff. And if Brecht can take a step forward in that regard this spring, he may not be around for the Nationals to pick at #10.

3B Tommy White, Louisiana State. My rank: #15.
Why not make it two years in a row drawing from that elite LSU lineup? It wasn't just Dylan Crews swinging his way to a National Championship by himself, as Tommy White served as his chief protection in the lineup. Crews hit a ridiculous .426/.567/.713, but White wasn't far behind at .374/.432/.725 and both out-slugged him and out-homered him (24 to 18). White is a special hitter, to say the least. He has downright ridiculous hands that enable him to effortlessly fling the barrel through the zone at a high speed, producing plus-plus raw power that has helped him slam 51 home runs in just 121 games in college, good for a career .740 slugging percentage. White can get to the ball anywhere in the zone, even outside of it, and do damage to all fields. He may actually have plus bat to ball skills in addition to his plus-plus power, something you rarely ever see. That said, his main flaw in the box is his approach, as he's extraordinarily aggressive and pro pitchers will take advantage of that. If the Nationals buy the bat at #10, they'll be buying into his extraordinary natural talent in the box while hoping they can coach him to a more selective approach. To foot stomp the importance of doing so, White is a well below average athlete that is unlikely to stick at third base, instead looking at a likely career at first base or DH. If he joins the Nationals' system, he'll be rejoining not only Crews but Elijah Green, whom he teamed with at IMG Academy in Florida.

RHP Levi Sterling, Notre Dame HS [CA]. My rank: #17.
The Nationals haven't selected a prep pitcher in the first round since Mason Denaburg in 2018, though to be fair, Travis Sykora received back of the first round money in the third round in 2023. Levi Sterling isn't quite there yet in terms of pitching his way to the Nationals at #10, but I think he has every opportunity to do so. Hailing from the same Notre Dame High School in Los Angeles that produced Hunter Greene, Giancarlo Stanton, and many others, Sterling only sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out at 94, very modest by today's standards. His secondary arsenal is made up of a sweeping, slurvy curveball around 80, a tighter cutter, and an above average splitter. There's no true out pitches here, but Sterling is extremely projectable at 6'4" and won't turn 18 until after the draft, making him very young for the class. With a free and easy delivery and a virtual guarantee to add significant physicality over the next few years, he should add velocity quickly. Sterling also shows above average command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, putting him in uncommon territory for a high school pitcher. If Sterling shows even a modest bump in velocity this spring while holding his command and staying healthy, he could tempt Rizzo with the tenth overall pick.

LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke. My rank: #25.
If the draft were today, I don't think Jonathan Santucci would be under consideration. But after missing the final two months of the season in 2023 with elbow problems, a healthy 2024 could easily propel him into the Nationals' sights. Health aside, the profile belongs in the middle of the first round. He sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96 with his fastball, playing up with plenty of riding life. His slider looks like a true plus pitch when he locates it, while his changeup has continued to step forward and looks like it could become a weapon. Santucci's whole arsenal should gain more consistency as he gets more consistent innings, and with a sturdy 6'2" frame and clean, natural actions on the mound, he should be able to stay healthy enough to do so. I could certainly see him pushing himself into the upper tier of college starting pitchers this spring with a healthy spring where he shows three above average to plus pitches with solid command from the left side. And if he does that, Mike Rizzo will be interested.

LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest. My rank: #27.
We'll round out our list with one more college arm. Josh Hartle ranks near the back of the first round on my board but by most accounts fits somewhere in the middle of the first round, meaning he won't have to do much extra to earn consideration at pick #10. Like many names on this list, he was a famous prep in the class of 2021 but pulled himself out of the draft because he was set on attending Wake Forest just across town from where he grew up in the Winston-Salem area. Hartle's polish was immediately evident as he made 14 starts as a true freshman, then he took a big step forward as a sophomore where he was quietly one of the best pitchers in college baseball. The polish will certainly have Rizzo interested. It's a below average fastball sitting in the low 90's and topping at 94 with sinking life, while his two-plane, slurvy curveball gets swings and misses and his changeup looks solid. Everything plays way up though because he shows plus command with both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, missing far more bats than you'd expect (33.4% K rate in 2023) and setting him up well to handle more disciplined pro hitters. Really, it's a very similar profile to Levi Sterling if you flip the handedness, with Hartle having the advantage of an excellent 2023 in the ACC and Sterling having the advantage of being three and a half years younger. Like Sterling, it may only take a small bump up in velocity for Hartle to earn the selection to the Nationals at pick #10.