Showing posts with label Jordan Wicks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jordan Wicks. Show all posts

Sunday, August 1, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs had a pretty diverse draft this year, grabbing one from each of the four major demographics (prep/college hitter/pitcher) with their first four picks. In the past, they've targeted pitchers that throw hard such as Brendon Little, Ryan Jensen, Burl Carraway, and Luke Little to name a few, but even with fireballers like Ty Madden, Gavin Williams, Ryan Cusick, and Chase Petty still on the board, they opted to break from their trend a little bit and get Jordan Wicks, who does not throw hard but stands out for his changeup. Next, they grabbed a prep bat from my high school in the second round, and in the fourth made one of my favorite picks of the entire draft. To save money for their two big overslot picks (preps James Triantos and Drew Gray), they later focused on college performers and five of their last six picks on day two were born in 1998. Easily my favorite pick of the draft for the Cubs was fourth rounder Christian Franklin.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-21: LHP Jordan Wicks, Kansas State. My rank: #31.
I wasn't huge on Jordan Wicks, but a lot of teams in the teens really liked him and the Cubs must have been excited just to see him available outside the top twenty. He put himself on the map with an excellent 2020 season, allowing just one run over 26 innings (0.35 ERA) while striking out 26 to just four walks. Wicks was hit a little bit harder in Big 12 play in 2021 and finished with a 3.70 ERA and a 118/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 92.1 innings, but still impressed evaluators enough to be considered the near-consensus best left handed pitching prospect in college baseball. The 6'3" lefty doesn't throw crazy hard, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 94, but the pitch plays up with high spin rates and ride. His main weapon is arguably the best changeup in the class, a plus-plus fader that just up and dies on its way to the plate. The central Arkansas native's curveball and slider were previously distant third and fourth pitches, but this spring they took a step forward to average or at times a tick above. Everything plays up because he has above average command and is a dogged competitor, throwing all of his pitches with conviction and pounding the strike zone. Those intangibles should enable him to work his way up through the minors rather quickly, and he could reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter soon. The lack of a plus breaker probably keeps him from being a #1 or #2, though it's hard to see the entire package allowing him to be anything less than a back-end guy. He signed at slot value for $3.13 million.

2-56: 3B James Triantos, James Madison HS [VA]. My rank: #62.
This is a unique one for me, because I played baseball at Madison from 2012-2015 and used to go to the Triantos house to hit in the batting cage in their back yard. James was only about twelve years old when I used to go over there with some of the other Madison players and I've since moved from Virginia to Texas, so I don't have any extra insight on his skillset, but it's still a fun connection for me. Triantos is the first player drafted out of my high school since Andy McGuire in 2013, who was two years ahead of me, and the second highest pick in school history behind 1971 second overall pick Jay Franklin. Originally a member of the 2022 class, he reclassified to 2021 to be age-appropriate and a massive spring catapulted him into top 100 conversation relatively late. He absolutely demolished northern Virginia pitching with above average raw power to all fields, whipping the barrel through the zone with great leverage and a swing path that allows him to make solid contact even when he's not on time. The hit tool has held up extremely well this spring, though it's relatively untested against higher level arms and the Cubs are showing a little bit of faith by taking him this high and giving him this large of a bonus. He shows a plus arm that helped him serve as the Warhawk ace this spring and throw a complete game in the state championship game, but he lacks the range to stick at shortstop and profiles better as a third baseman. Triantos is a hard worker who has been working out regularly since at least when I knew him as a pre-teenager, so he should make the most of his ability in pro baseball. He signed for $2.1 million, which was $820,000 above slot value.

3-93: LHP Drew Gray, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #166.
Here is a semi-hometown pick. Drew Gray is from Swansea, Illinois, just outside of St. Louis, and he transferred from Belleville High School to the IMG Academy this year to increase his stock. Gray was actually a position player until recently, only beginning to seriously focus on pitching last year, so there is a lot to project on. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 93-94 early in starts but often dipping into the upper 80's towards the end. The pitch has high spin and great riding action, so the hope is that as he gets stronger and more accustomed to the mound, it will turn into a true weapon for him. The secondaries are more of a work in progress, with his breaking balls looking slurvy (albeit with high spin as well) and the changeup in its early stages. He does a great job of incorporating his legs into his delivery, though his mechanics could use a little synching up going forward. Gray had a chance to shoot up boards this spring, but nagging injuries kept him from doing so. This is exactly the kind of profile that could head to school and come out a completely different prospect, so the Cubs recognized that and are buying in early so that he can make those gains in their system. With added strength and more time to develop his offspeeds, he has a tremendous ceiling. Gray was committed to Arkansas but signed for $900,000, which was $272,100 above slot value.

4-123: OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas. My rank: #38.
This was one of the best picks in the draft in my and many others' opinions, especially considering that he signed below slot. Christian Franklin was solidly in the first round picture for me until his swing and miss issues started to bite him a bit late in the season, but even once the draft rolled around he seemed like at least a second round pick to me. I guess the industry was lower on him and he fell to the Cubs in the fourth round, who could be getting arguably the best value in the draft. He was right in the middle of the best offense in college baseball this year, slashing .274/.420/.544 with 13 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 78/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games against a very tough schedule. First we have huge raw power despite a lean 5'11" frame, as he's such a great athlete that he can channel that lean strength into big exit velocities and has now crushed 22 home runs, 27 doubles, and four triples in 141 college games, even as he's faced a steady diet of big SEC arms. He's an above average runner that channels his speed into excellent center field defense, and that strength comes back into play with a plus arm from center field. Really, the only question in the Kansas City-area native's game is around his hit tool, as he struck out at a 28.5% rate this year and he seemed to be trending in the wrong direction by the season's end. That's certainly an issue, but to me, there are so many other positives in this profile that the fourth round feels way too low, and his .402 career on-base percentage (.407 in SEC play alone this year) shows that he can absolutely handle advanced pitching. He signed for $425,000, which was $39,500 below slot value.

5-154: SS Liam Spence, Tennessee. Unranked.
Liam Spence travelled a long way to get to Chicago. A product of Geelong, Australia (about 40 miles outside Melbourne), he began his college career at Central Arizona before transferring to Tennessee. The Australian has been an absolute hit machine for the Volunteers, slashing .338/.471/.459 with six home runs and a 60/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games since the start of 2020 and serving as their primary leadoff man during the team's College World Series run. He has a quick right handed stroke that enables him to find the barrel very consistently against good pitching, and there is some moderate power in his skinny 6'1" frame. Spence is a very patient hitter who has walked in 23.7% of his plate appearances at Tennessee, really juicing his on-base percentages and giving him ample opportunities to use his solid speed. Given that he doesn't quite have enough glove to man shortstop every day, this is a pretty clear utility infield profile, especially given that he turned 23 in April. Spence signed for $135,000, which was $208,400 below slot value.

7-214: OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #210.
Parker Chavers was trending towards being an early pick when he slashed .319/.435/.554 with 22 home runs over his first two seasons at Coastal Carolina, but he hurt his shoulder over the offseason and didn't get into action during the shortened 2020 season. He was still talked about in the back of the five round draft, but wound up undrafted and went back to school. This year, he hit a strong .318/.407/.477 with five home runs and a career-high 14 stolen bases in 49 games, but he didn't quite put it together like scouts had hoped. Chavers shows above average raw power from a smaller 5'11" frame, and over his first two seasons in Conway, he got to it consistently in games. However, in 2021, he toned down his approach a bit and dropped his strikeout rate from 19.3% over his first two seasons to 8.8% this year, but that came at the expense of his power as his five home runs and .477 slugging percentage were both career-lows. The Montgomery, Alabama native is a plus runner that will be able to handle all three outfield spots in pro ball, so he does a lot of things well. At this point, given that he turned 23 shortly after the draft, it's hard to see him putting it all together to the point where he can play full time, but the fact that he has (at separate times) shown the ability to hit for both power and average on top of being a good runner should give him quite a few ways to contribute as a fourth outfielder down the road. He signed for $125,000, which was $81,500 below slot value.

8-244: C Casey Opitz, Arkansas. Unranked.
Casey Opitz, like Parker Chavers, was eligible last year and had looks in the back of the five round draft (and both Chavers and Opitz just turned 23 five days apart). A relatively light hitter over the first two years of his career, he elevated his stock that year by jumping out to a hot .302/.361/.509 start in the shortened season, but that's looking like more a fluke now that he hit .257/.367/.346 with two home runs and a 33/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. It's an average hit tool and an ability to handle the strike zone well against advanced pitching that stand out on offense, but the below average power limits his ceiling. Where Opitz shines, though, is one defense. The Denver-area native has a plus glove and a plus arm, making him an asset behind the plate as is, but it's not just the tools that make him special. Opitz is also a high-energy leader back there who could be called Pitching Ninja's favorite catcher, firing up his pitchers after every strikeout. Pitchers absolutely love to work with him, and just his presence in the Chicago farm system could have a very positive impact on other young pitchers. This is a fun one even without much of a ceiling. He signed for $90,000, which was $78,500 below slot value.

Saturday, November 7, 2020

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the Big 12

Originally published on Prospects Worldwide on September 16th.

It’s always about projection this early in the draft process, but in 2021 that’s even more the case because we don’t have a full sophomore season to lean back on. That means for most players, aside from four brief weeks of action and whatever summer ball they played, we really just have their freshman seasons to look back on. Naturally, there are more arms that stand out at this point because it’s easier to spot upticks in stuff than improved plate discipline or power. That’s certainly the case in the Big 12, where nine out of the ten names on this list are pitchers. Overall, though, it’s a weak year for the conference at least for now, with only one first round prospect at this point (Ty Madden) and only four or five that fit into the top five rounds for now.

1. RHP Ty Madden, Texas

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 215 lbs. Born 2/21/2000. Hometown: Cypress, TX
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.

Easily the top prospect in the Big 12 for now, Ty Madden will take over for Bryce Elder (5th round, Braves) in leading a very talented Texas staff. The Houston-area native was strong as a freshman in 2019 (3.40 ERA, 37/24 K/BB) but took it to another level in the shortened 2020 season, putting up a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings against a pretty strong non-conference schedule that included a gutsy quality start against a loaded Arkansas lineup. That was sandwiched around a strong run through the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019 (3.33 ERA, 28/14 K/BB in 27 IP), and he’s looking to 2020 to put it all together.

Madden has a great pitcher’s frame at 6’3″ and with a low to mid 90’s fastball that can reach 96, he has the velocity to match. His best pitch might be his slider, though, bringing mid 80’s velocity and showing late, sharp bite that misses bats in bunches. He has great feel for the pitch and can manipulate its angle, which will serve him very well as his game continues to mature. Furthermore, he can morph it into a solid average curveball, though the breaking ball is at its best when it’s a true slider. Lastly, he brings an above average changeup that can flash plus at times, giving him multiple weapons.

All of that points to a career as a starter for Madden, but he will likely need a strong, full season in the Longhorns rotation in 2021 in order to prove it. His arm action is a bit funky, with a short stabbing motion in the back before he turns and fires to the plate. His strike throwing improved considerably from 2019 (13% BB rate) to 2020 (4.1%), to the point where scouts peg him with at least average command, which partially assuages those arm action concerns. The other side, of course, is injury risk, though he’s proven durable for Texas so far. Still, he’ll need to prove he can hold his velocity and command over a full season in the rotation to truly make scouts comfortable, as he won’t get the benefit of the doubt that guys with cleaner, more traditional arm actions receive.

2. LHP Jordan Wicks, Kansas State

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’3″, 220 lbs. Born 9/1/1999. Hometown: Conway, AR
2019-2020: 9-3, 2.85 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 112/30 K/BB in 110.2 IP.

While Ty Madden remains the top prospect in the Big 12, Jordan Wicks is easily the fastest riser. The Conway, Arkansas native announced his presence with a very effective freshman season for Kansas State with a 3.61 ERA and an 86/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.2 innings, but it’s what he’s done since then that has made scouts sit up and pay attention. Combining his shortened 2020 season with Kansas State with an exceptional run through the Northwoods League, Wicks is 5-0 with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and a 55/9 strikeout to walk ratio across 46 innings this calendar year – that’ll play.

There’s really not much to dislike with Wicks at all. Coming from a durable 6’3″ frame, he throws with clean arm action and gets a little bit of crossfire from a closed off delivery, hiding the ball well along the way. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and peaks around 93, nothing crazy but enough given the rest of his profile. His changeup is a plus pitch that has fooled hitters throughout his college career, coming in with great fading action to the arm side that plays especially well off his delivery. There’s a pair of breaking balls as well, though at this point, they play better off his other stuff than on their own.

The changeup is certainly his weapon, but his above average command combined with his deception makes everything play up significantly. Wicks’ name is gaining steam fast and he could be challenging Madden by the spring, with a pretty high floor already as a back-end starter. An uptick in either his velocity or his breaking stuff could push him into the back of the first round conversation, and an uptick in both (which is very plausible given his clean delivery and high spin rates) will put him right smack in the middle of it.

3. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 210 lbs. Born 3/23/2000. Hometown: Willis, TX
2019-2020 (@ TX A&M/San Jac. CC): 6-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 51/13 K/BB in 35 IP.

Brandon Birdsell was part of the best rotation in junior college baseball in 2019, with his San Jacinto rotation-mates Luke Little (Cubs, 4th round) and Mitchell Parker (Nationals, 5th round) both getting drafted. Birdsell was talented enough to warrant a draft selection as well and some saw him as the best prospect in that rotation, but he instead set his sights on building his stock across the state at Texas Tech. Having lost Clayton Beeter (Dodgers, comp round), Bryce Bonnin (Reds, third round), and John McMillon (Royals, undrafted), the Red Raiders rotation is wide open, and Birdsell is one of the frontrunners to stand out on yet another talented pitching staff in Lubbock.

If anything, the 6’2″ right hander has a power arm. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and has been trending upwards, hitting 97 in his final start of the abbreviated 2020 season. He backs that up with a rapidly improving slider that has tightened into an above average pitch, and it was a true weapon for him at San Jac. He’s also steadily refining his changeup, and with a durable frame, smooth delivery, and solid strike throwing ability, he is looking more and more like a mid-rotation starter.

Having thrown just 35 innings in his college career so far, there isn’t much of a track record here, but what he has shown in a small sample is as good as any arm in the Big 12. Going out and maintaining his positive trajectory in Lubbock in 2021 could send him flying up draft boards. Like Madden, he’s also from the Houston area, albeit a bit farther out.

4. RHP Micah Dallas, Texas Tech

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 4/14/2000. Hometown: Aubrey, TX
2019-2020: 8-2, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 107/29 K/BB in 91.2 IP.

Brandon Birdsell won’t be the only one looking to jump into that wide-open Texas Tech rotation. Micah Dallas was strong as a freshman in 2019 (7-2, 4.03 ERA, 84/28 K/BB) but was bumped back to the bullpen in 2020, where he was absolutely untouchable. In five relief appearances averaging more than three innings apiece, he struck out 23 batters over 15.2 innings while allowing just nine baserunners, including four shutout innings against Stanford. With Beeter and Bonnin gone, it’s hard not to see him reclaiming that weekend rotation spot alongside the newcomer Birdsell.

The North Texas native is fun to watch. His fastball sits in the low 90’s, topping out around 93, but you’re more likely to see him work off his offspeed pitches. His power slider is an above average pitch and he’ll throw it in any count, inducing some ugly swings and misses as hitters struggle to pick it up out of his hand. He’ll also use a solid average changeup that keeps lefties at bay, again with the conviction to use it whenever he sees fit. Dallas pounds the strike zone with an aggressive bulldog mentality that makes all of his pitches play up, which also helps is average command play up into above average control.

There are some reliever questions with Dallas, who has a stockier build at 6’2″ and throws with some effort. His delivery might need to be cleaned up a bit, but even at present he fills the strike zone very effectively. That bulldog mentality will fit really well in the bullpen should he be forced into that role, where he could more sustainably rely on that slider/changeup combination, but he won’t turn 21 until April and has plenty of time to refine his game. With his demeanor, power slider, and feel for pitching, he has every chance to do so. I’m probably one of the higher guys on Dallas at this point.

5. RHP Kolby Kubichek, Texas

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6′, 180 lbs. Born 11/28/1999. Hometown: Bryan, TX
2019-2020: 2-2, 5.21 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 23/17 K/BB in 27.2 IP.

Kolby Kubichek may have grown up in the heart of Aggieland, but he gives us our second Longhorn arm in the top four. While his college track record leaves something to be desired at this point, he piqued scouts interests with an exceptional run through the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019, putting up a 1.77 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 41/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.2 innings against elite, older competition. Like his rotation-mate, the top ranked Ty Madden, he has a bit of an unconventional profile, and that’s exactly why scouts will be watching his starts in Austin very closely this year.

This is a very interesting pitcher to break down. Kubichek’s best pitch is his fastball, but it only sits around 90 and tops out around 92. He’s an old school pitcher that comes straight over top with his release point, which puts excellent sinking action on the pitch while running inside to right handed batters. When located, it’s extremely difficult to square up and do damage on, and it played especially well against wood bats on the Cape. His next best pitch is a rapidly improving changeup that he really gained feel for that summer, bringing great sinking and fading action that is extremely difficult to differentiate from his sinker. Lastly, he brings in a slider and a curveball that are more ordinary at this point.

There is really a lot to like with Kubichek, the overall package remains just a little bit light if you want to project him as a bona fide starting pitcher, at least for now. He’s tacked some strength onto his smaller six foot frame, but he still remains just little bit undersized. His command has improved, but it still remains average at this point and when you only throw 90, you’re going to need to hit your spots very consistently to survive in pro ball, even if your sinker has great movement. Lastly, the lack of a plus breaking ball limits his ceiling a little bit. He’s not going to get any bigger, so if scouts are going to be confident in projecting him as a starter on draft day, he’ll probably want to see either an uptick in his stuff or his command this spring. Still, there are no glaring holes in the profile, and he remains a very well-rounded pitcher who does a lot of things well on the mound.

6. RHP Riley Cornelio, Texas Christian

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 195 lbs. Born 6/6/2000. Hometown: Monument, CO
2020: 1-0, 0.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6/7 K/BB in 10.1 IP.

Big 12 fans know that this list wouldn’t be complete without a TCU arm to follow in the footsteps of Nick Lodolo, Durbin Feltman, Brandon Finnegan, and the countless other arms I don’t need to name, and those who follow the draft will recognize Riley Cornelio’s name. Cornelio was a top draft prospect coming out of the Colorado Springs high school ranks in 2019, and thanks to a June birthday that made him very old for his class, he’s draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2021. That means he’ll have to put in a lot of work proving himself this year, because with the shortened 2020 season, he only has 10.1 college innings to his name with some very interesting numbers. Facing 40 batters, he allowed just three hits (.094 opponents AVG) but walked seven while striking out six and allowed three runs, only one of which was earned. In this case, the scouting profile fits in perfectly with the numbers.

Cornelio is a lanky 6’3″ righty with wicked stuff, but he’s still learning how to harness it. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out around 95, getting nice riding action along the way that routinely misses barrels. His curveball is a true plus pitch at its best, bringing wipeout action that played up immediately against college hitters last year. However, it can flatten out at times when he leaves it up, which is fairly often. There’s a changeup, though for now it’s his third pitch.

Cornelio creates a lot of deception with a crossfire delivery that hides the ball well, but a byproduct of starting so closed off and unfurling his body is that he regularly loses his arm slot and release point. That severely impacts his command, which probably grades out at a 40 at this point. As a two pitch pitcher with poor command, he carries tremendous relief risk, though as a draft eligible sophomore that has thrown 10.1 college innings, he hasn’t had much of a chance to prove himself anyways. That’s the downside of being old for your class. Given his lack of experience, it would not be surprising for him to come out in 2021 with a cleaner operation, in which case he could shoot up draft boards. For now though, we’ll have to wait and see, but that fastball/curveball combination is wicked.

7. CF Eric Kennedy, Texas

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 200 lbs. Born 9/15/1999. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2019-2020: 3 HR, .305/.381/.403, 17 SB, 35/30 K/BB in 66 games.

The top position player prospect in the Big 12, Kennedy is also our third Longhorn on the list. There really isn’t much going on in terms of impact bats in this conference, especially if you’re looking for power, so the contact-oriented Kennedy rises to the top just based on his consistency. After hitting .310/.382/.418 with a very strong 23/21 strikeout to walk ratio as a true freshman in 2019, he followed it up with a solid, albeit unspectacular, start to the 2020 season with a .288/.380/.356 line and eight stolen bases through 17 games.

Kennedy isn’t a power hitter, but he does a lot of everything else well. The Tampa native is a plus runner, and he deploys that speed very well on the bases, swiping nine bags in eleven attempts as a freshman before going a perfect eight for eight as a sophomore. That speed will enable him to stick in center field as well, where his strong arm makes him a valuable overall defender. At the plate, he’s hit over power, employing a quick left handed swing to drive the ball around the yard and to the gaps. His patient approach combined with strong bat to ball skills means there is very little swing and miss in his game, and it gives him a high floor as someone who will for sure hit in pro ball. Whether you see Kennedy as anything more than a fourth outfielder, though, likely depends on how you project his power.

At 5’11”, he’s not the biggest guy in the world, and he hasn’t shown much even in the way of simple extra base power so far at Texas. Given his very strong feel for hitting, some swing changes to give him more extension could help him profile for 5-10 home runs per year or more, and he’ll have a chance to show more pure offensive impact in 2021.

8. RHP Ryan Bergert, West Virginia

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 200 lbs. Born 3/8/2000. Hometown: Canton, OH
2019-2020: 4-1, 2.30 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 68/19 K/BB in 58.2 IP.

Here is a guy who has just dominated everywhere he’s gone. As a true freshman at WVU in 2019, Ryan Bergert came out and posted a 1.80 ERA and a sharp 38/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 34 innings, and he followed that up with a 2.92 mark and a 30/11 K/BB in 24.2 innings in 2020. This summer, he was one of the best pitchers in the Northwoods League, too, with a 2.33 ERA and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio across 27 innings. Names like Madden, Kubichek, and Dallas are more recognizable in this Lone Star-centered conference but Bergert is quietly positioning himself as one of the best pitchers available.

Bergert’s numbers stand out, but he has the stuff to match. The 6’2″ righty usually works around 90, but he can reach back for 94-95 at times and his high spin rates help it play faster. He also adds in a really sharp curveball that doesn’t always have the finish he would like, but which flashes plus at his best. The Canton, Ohio native primarily works off those two pitches, but there is still some projection remaining in his frame and his above average command helps him profile as a starting pitcher. He’s going to want to refine that changeup a bit and an uptick in velocity would be nice as well, but you can’t argue with his track record against strong competition and he’s a sleeper to watch for the 2021 draft.

9. LHP Dalton Fowler, Oklahoma

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’5″, 190 lbs. Born 1/7/2000. Hometown: Arlington, TN
2019-2020 (@ NW Miss. CC): 10-2, 3.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 127/53 K/BB in 83.2 IP.

Despite losing all three weekend starters to the draft last year in Cade Cavalli (Nationals, first round), Levi Prater (Cardinals, third round), and Dane Acker (A’s, fourth round), plus its top pitching recruit in Dax Fulton (Marlins, second round), Oklahoma is bringing in a really talented pitching staff this year. A big reason for that is Northwest Mississippi CC transfer Dalton Fowler, who actually is actually a fairly similar pitcher to Fulton. Fowler was very inconsistent as a freshman in Senatobia, but was off to a hot start in 2020 with 39 strikeouts to just 20 baserunners allowed in 19 innings, and he could have been a sixth to tenth round draft pick in a normal draft. Instead, the Memphis-area native will head west to Norman and look to put it all together.

Like top recruit turned Miami Marlin Dax Fulton, Dalton Fowler is a lanky fastball-curveball lefty. He’s variously listed at 6’5″ or 6’6″ and at less than 200 pounds, he’s a true stringbean. Fowler’s fastball sits in the low 90’s and he’s gotten better at maintaining that velocity, so scouts are looking to see if he can push the upper end as well as he continues to fill out that big frame.

In the past, his curveball has fluctuated between below average and above average, but he’s gotten more consistent with the pitch and is flashing more above average breakers. There’s a changeup as well that’s coming along, and his command has improved from 40 grade to 45 grade. There is still considerable work to be done, but Fowler is extremely projectable and slowly but steadily trending in the right direction, and if Oklahoma’s coaching staff can help him put it all together, he has real impact starter potential. Consider him the high ceiling, low floor name in this group.

10. SS Hueston Morrill, Oklahoma State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 165 lbs. Born 11/27/1999. Hometown: Live Oak, FL
2019-2020: 4 HR, .276/.388/.406, 18 SB, 78/47 K/BB in 76 games.

Eight of the top nine prospects in the Big 12 are pitchers, but here at ten we’ll get to one more hitter, Oklahoma State’s jack-of-all-trades Hueston Morrill. Morrill, who like the other hitter on this list, Eric Kennedy, is a native Floridian, made an immediate impact in Stillwater with a .282/.390/.386 line and 12 stolen bases over 58 games as a true freshman in 2019. After a so-so run through the Cape Cod League that summer (.238/.299/.300, 26/6 K/BB), he started to show some pop as a sophomore with a slightly less balanced .258/.383/.470 line and a couple home runs in 18 games. Now, a very shallow crop of Big 12 position players gives him a chance to stand out in front of area scouts.

Morrill doesn’t have a standout tool, rather he does a lot of things very well, and steps forward in any area could send him flying up draft boards. Though his hit tool probably grades out as fringe-average at this point, he’s a patient hitter that works counts and draws walks, making evaluators comfortable with a 50 grade in that area. While he’s a bit undersized at 5’11” and 165 pounds, he has shown nice gap power throughout his career and was starting to tap into more impact as a sophomore in 2020. The swing can get a bit long at times, but he leaves the barrel in the zone for a long time and that enables him to make consistent hard contact.

Additionally, Morrill is a good runner with 18 stolen bases in 21 tries so far with the Cowboys. On the other side of the ball, he played second base as a freshman then moved over to shortstop as a sophomore, and he has the quickness and arm strength to stick there. In fact, he actually showed a low 90’s fastball in high school and drew some interest as a right handed pitcher, which illustrates his upside at shortstop. Right now, because both his hit and power tools are fringy, he profiles more as a utility infielder than anything else, but continuing to tap that power like he’s capable of and tightening up his bat to ball skills a little bit could make a big difference.

Other Big 12 Interesting Options

Kansas State:

The Wildcats bring two interesting arms to the table this year in Carson Seymour and Connor McCullough. Seymour was draft-eligible last season, but he had just 28 collegiate innings under his belt and team’s weren’t comfortable with his track record in a five round draft. The 6’6″, 260 pound righty had seen a dramatic improvement in his stuff and hit 99 with his fastball while flashing two plus breaking balls in a slider and a curveball. However, the quality of his stuff was inconsistent and his command remained unrefined, and he’ll go into 2021 looking to prove he’s for real. McCullough, who like Seymour (Dartmouth) transferred from another four year school (Arkansas), dominated the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019 with a 1.72 ERA and a 42/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings. He doesn’t have the same size or overpowering stuff as Seymour, tossing a fastball around 90 to go with a high spin curveball and a solid changeup. McCullough does beat Seymour when it comes to consistency and command, though, giving him less risk than his high upside counterpart.

Oklahoma:

The Sooners have three more names I’m interested in right now. Right hander Wyatt Olds shook off a mediocre freshman season to post a 1.89 ERA and a 29/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 innings as a sophomore, and that was against as tough of a non-conference slate as you’re going to get. He has a really funky delivery in which he reaches as far back as he can, bends his torso forward as if he’s going to come submarine, then comes back up to sling the ball from a high sidearm slot. The result is excellent extension that makes the ball extremely difficult to pick up, and that makes his low 90’s fastball and frisbee slider play up. His command has improved at Oklahoma, but it’s still fringy and he likely profiles as a reliever. Ben Abram is absolutely massive at 6’7″ and 255 pounds, coming in with average stuff but great pitchability. He commands his 90-ish fastball, above average 12-6 curveball, and decent slider and changeup very well, and with that durable frame, he profiles well as a #5 starter. Any small uptick in his velocity could send him moving up boards. On the other side of the ball, we have draft-eligible sophomore Connor Beichler, an undersized 5’9″, 155 pound second baseman with an extremely disciplined approach at the plate. He uses a line drive swing to spray the ball around the field, though he understandably doesn’t profile for a ton of power. He’s also reported to have a very strong work ethic.

Oklahoma State:

The Cowboys have an interesting sleeper that I’ll be watching this spring in Clemson/junior college transfer Justin Wrobleski. He’s a 6’1″ lefty with a low 90’s fastball that tops out around 95, and his loose arm puts plenty of run on the ball to make it tough to square up. Wrobleski adds in an above average slider that pairs well with his fastball in addition to a decent changeup, but he doesn’t have much of a track record and needs to tighten up his command. Lefties with the potential for two plus pitches will always garner attention though. There’s also righthander Kale Davis, who sits around 90 with his fastball and adds an above average curveball. At 6’4″, he has a great pitcher’s frame, and he has better command than Wrobleski. Scouts will be looking for an uptick in velocity in 2021.

Texas:

The Longhorns had three of the top five players on this list, and they still have more to watch even after promising righty Kamron Fields transferred to Texas Southern. Right hander Mason Bryant has as high of a ceiling as anybody on this list, standing 6’5″ and coming in with a mid 90’s fastball. He also adds an above average slider, but for now, the Austin native has very little track record in the Big 12, having thrown 12 total innings with a 9.75 ERA. His command is well below average at this point and he has a lot of work to do if he wants to get drafted as a starter. Right hander Dawson Merryman, unlike Bryant, has no chance to start in pro ball as a two pitch sidearmer. He tosses his fastball in the low 90’s, which is faster than many sidearmers, and can sling a frisbee slider across the plate as well. Hailing from the small town of Greenwood, Texas, which is just outside Midland, he’s a solid strike thrower and could move quickly through the minors. We also have right hander Andre Duplantier, the cousin of Diamondbacks pitcher and Rice alum Jon Duplantier, is around 90 with his fastball, adds a solid curveball, and was strong as a freshman last year with a 2.00 ERA and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio in nine innings. He lacks a plus carrying tool, but he does a lot of things well and could sneak up on some people.

Texas Christian:

Behind Cornelio, the Horned Frogs have a nice crop of players to watch. Right hander Johnny Ray could have gone in the sixth to tenth round last year had it been a normal draft, putting up a 2.53 ERA and a 21/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings. Nothing here is plus, but he’s solid average across the board with a low 90’s fastball, a good slider, and an average curveball and changeup to go with average command. Getting more innings under his belt and proving his strike throwing ability could put him in a similar range in 2021. Righty Marcelo Perez has my attention, though he’s a bit undersized at 5’10”. The Laredo, Texas native brings a low 90’s fastball, an above average slider with really nice, late bite, and a solid changeup, and he pumps it all out with relative ease. However, his lack of height and extension lead to a lot of relief questions. Outfielder Porter Brown hit just .237/.351/.316 over his first two seasons in Fort Worth, but in a conference without a ton of big bats, he stands out for his speed and plate discipline. Though he’s just 5’11”, his line drive bat profiles to add some impact as he gets more at bats under his belt.

Texas Tech:

Perhaps the deepest team in this conference when it comes to draft prospects, the Red Raiders had two of the top three names on this list and bring plenty more. Austin Becker was a big name on the 2017 summer showcase circuit leading up to the 2018 draft, but his command regressed in the spring, and his stay at Vanderbilt lasted just four innings in 2019. Transferring to Texas Tech, he struggled mightily with his command in 2020 and will now miss the 2021 season with Tommy John surgery. At his best, though, the 6’5″ righty shows a mid to upper 90’s fastball and an above average curveball and changeup, but he’ll have a lot of ground to make up once he comes back healthy. Mason Montgomery is a 6’2″ lefty that has caught some eyes, showing a low 90’s fastball with more in the tank. With a clean delivery and improving strike throwing ability, he’s trending in the right direction and of course, he’s left handed. We have Dylan Neuse, younger brother of A’s infielder Sheldon Neuse, who was draft eligible in 2020 but was not selected in the five round event despite a .355/.438/.487 slash line in 19 games. Just 5’9″, he has an explosive right handed swing that produces a lot of hard contact, but he can lose some of that leverage when he gets power conscious and likely profiles more as a contact hitter in pro ball. With plus speed to go with strong plate discipline, he could make a nice super-utility man. Max Marusak is even faster than Neuse, but the Amarillo native has hit just .244/.304/.341 in 55 games in Lubbock. His blazing speed will always keep him on the radar, but he makes a lot of weak contact and does not draw many walks. Scouts hope the skinny six footer can build on his strong bat to ball skills and innate athleticism in 2021.

West Virginia:

I just have one name for you here to follow up Ryan Bergert, and that’s Jackson Wolf. An Ohio native like his rotation-mate, Wolf exploded with a 1.05 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings in 2020, but went undrafted despite being eligible. He’s a 6’7″ lefty (immediate underline for scouts) that only sits in the upper 80’s with his fastball, occasionally creeping above 90, but he gets such great extension that it looks like he’s throwing 95. He has a fringy breaking ball and average command, so it’s unlikely he’ll remain a starter in pro ball, but I’m interested to see how much that fastball can tick up in relief.