The Reds' organization lacks a "wow" top prospect (there are enough questions surrounding Hunter Greene's health and secondary stuff that we should hold off on the "future ace" projections for now), but they do have a nice group of solid could-be's who are only an adjustment or two from becoming legitimate impact players. That group includes pitchers Greene, Tony Santillan, Packy Naughton, and Nick Lodolo, who could join the rotation sooner rather than later, and position players Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Jose Garcia, Michael Siani, Tyler Callihan, and Rece Hinds all have impact potential at the plate. I think that makes it a pretty average system overall, though steps forward from Greene, Siani, Hinds, and/or James Marinan could change that, and the Reds would also like to see upper minors guys like Jose Siri, TJ Friedl, and Victor Gutierrez figure it out and fulfill their potential.
Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Chattanooga Lookouts, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level AZL and DSL Reds
Catcher
- Tyler Stephenson (2020 Age: 23): Stephenson was the Reds' first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, and like you'd expect for a high school catcher, he's moved slowly. Reaching AA in 2019, he slashed .285/.372/.410 with six home runs and a 60/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Chattanooga, nice numbers that were pretty consistent with what he did in 2017 and 2018. He's got some power in his 6'4" frame, though to this point he hasn't really tapped it and now after 376 pro games, he probably never will be the 25-30 home run bat he was projected as in high school. Still, with his strength and ability to keep the strikeouts low, he should profile for around 10-20 per season in the majors while posting solid on-base percentages, which combined with his strong defense means he could lock down a starting role. Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali are capable but certainly not enough to block Stephenson, and he should be up at some point in 2020 and potentially the starter not long after.
- Eric Yang (2020 Age: 22): Yang was the Reds' seventh round pick out of UC-Santa Barbara in 2019, and a successful pro debut has him primed to work his way up as a potential backup catcher. Assigned to rookie level Billings, he hit .290/.428/.420 with four home runs and a 44/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games, showing that all of the strengths that the Reds drafted him for would at least play up in the low minors. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has a very strong understanding of the strike zone and is more than capable of getting hits and posting high on-base percentages. Add in good defense, and he's a prototypical backup catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Hendrik Clementina, Jay Schuyler, Jose Tello
Corner Infield
- Jonathan India (2020 Age: 23): The Reds took India with the fifth overall pick in 2018 on the heels of a huge breakout season for Florida, though his bat has been just a bit lighter than expected in pro ball. In 2019, he slashed .259/.365/.402 with eleven home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. Known for both power and on-base ability at Florida, the on-base ability played up, but the power, not so much. There were concerns about India's power in college, as it showed up in spades with metal bats but did not in a small sample with wood bats, and 2019 didn't assuage those concerns that his power was a product of the metal bats. He's a strong defender at third base, taking some pressure off the bat, but it's not clear where he fits in the Cincinnati infield behind Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Moustakas. Maybe he can handle shortstop, but that's a bit of a stretch. Either way, he'll want to rediscover that power stroke if he wants to live up to the expectations that come with being the fifth overall pick – if not, he projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is still good enough to start somewhere due to his good defense.
- Ibandel Isabel (2020 Age: 24-25): In 2019, the Reds deployed an alliterative 6'4" power hitter with strikeout concerns and Aristides Aquino turned out very well. They'll hope the same thing happens in 2020 with Ibandel Isabel, though Isabel's strikeout concerns may be even more pronounced. In 2019, he slashed .243/.307/.518 with 26 home runs and a 153/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Chattanooga, giving him three straight seasons with more than 25 home runs. Like India, he doesn't have a clear path to starting with Joey Votto firmly entrenched at his only position, and he definitely falls behind India on the depth chart if Votto gets hurt. Still, there's no denying Isabel's power, and he smokes left handed pitching enough (.330/.385/.588 in 2019) that he could profile well as a platoon or bench bat at the major league level as soon as 2020.
- Tyler Callihan (2020 Age: 19-20): The Reds took Callihan in the third round out of a Jacksonville high school in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal to keep him from attending Florida. His successful pro debut saw him slash .263/.298/.442 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 50/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games at rookie affiliates Greeneville and Billings. Though he's a stocky 6'1", he stands out more for his contact ability than for his power at this point. Callihan had some of the best feel for the barrel in the 2019 high school class, which should help him avoid some of the bust risk of most other high schoolers, and he could also develop some power if he starts driving the ball in the air more. He does need to get a little more patient, as he makes such easy contact that he doesn't draw a lot of walks. Defensively, it's not clear where he'll end up, as he has decent arm strength but limited range, pointing to a career either at second or third base.
- Rece Hinds (2020 Age: 19): Hinds went in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2019, a round before Callihan, though he went 0-8 at rookie level Greeneville before lingering quad problems kept him out of action for the rest of the season. He's got a ton of raw power from the right side, and he's shown no trouble getting to it even against higher velocities. However, he's struggled against quality breaking stuff, so he might take a bit longer to develop than Callihan. The Reds can look to the Cardinals' success with Nolan Gorman, who had a similar profile coming out of high school, though Hinds probably needs even more work with that hit tool than Gorman did. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but saw action exclusively at third base during his brief pro debut, and he'll need to work on his defensive game just to stay there and keep from ending up at first base. Given the presence of Eugenio Suarez, Jonathan India, and possibly Callihan at third base, first base seems more likely.
- Keep an eye on: Alejo Lopez
Middle Infield
- Alfredo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 25-26): The Reds signed Rodriguez out of Cuba for $7 million in 2016 because of his excellent defense at shortstop. All he needs to do is hit a little bit, but as I wrote last year, over his first couple of pro seasons he "didn't hit a lick" and in 2018 he slashed just .210/.273/.312. However, that started to change in 2019, as he slashed .267/.314/.327 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, though he was much better at the lower level (.286/.325/.347 in 104 games) than the higher level (.169/.261/.221 in 23 games). That's not a stat line that screams future regular, as he still shows very little power except a little bit to the gaps, but at least he got on base at a decent clip against advanced pitching in AA. The calling card here is the glove, and if he can continue to tweak his approach and figure out how to get some singles, doubles, and walks at the major league level, he should be a nice utility infielder/defensive replacement in the near future.
- Jose Garcia (2020 Age: 22): The Reds plucked Garcia out of Cuba for $5 million in 2017 not long after they signed Rodriguez for similar money out of the same hometown of Havana. After slashing .245/.290/.344 in 2018, he took a step forward in 2019 by slashing .280/.343/.436 with eight home runs, 15 stolen bases, and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at High A Daytona Beach. He makes easy, consistent contact from the right side, and his ability to barrel the ball up helped him knock 37 doubles in addition to his eight home runs. He's an aggressive hitter that tends to put the ball in play early in the count, and while that hasn't hurt him to this point, it does limit his walk totals. He's a sound defensive shortstop who will stick there, and if all goes right and he keeps hitting the way he did in 2019, he could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and a few stolen bases, which should be good enough to start.
- Ivan Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson looked overmatched as a freshman at Georgia, but he found his footing after transferring to Chipola Junior College for his sophomore season and hit his way to a fourth round selection in 2019. After being drafted, he hit .255/.327/.415 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 46/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at rookie level Greeneville. He's a switch hitter that hits for a lot of impact with his explosive swing, and his plate discipline is trending in the right direction. He's not anything special defensively and probably fits best at second base, but with the upside in his bat, he may be able to start there as someone who could produce 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Yan Contreras, Jose Acosta
Outfield
- Jose Siri (2020 Age: 24-25): Siri had a big breakout year with Class A in 2017 (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530), though he hasn't been quite as flashy since reaching the upper minors. In 2019, he slashed .237/.300/.357 with 11 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 165/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, and a 3-3 performance in his final game brought his AAA batting average up from .162 to .186. Siri is the most tooled up player in the system, and while his strengths are very clear, so are his weaknesses. He has a lot of raw pop in his 6'2" frame and explosive swing, but that comes with poor plate discipline that has kept him from getting to it consistently in the upper minors and which has suppressed his on-base percentages. At the same time, he has exceptional speed that has allowed him to swipe 20 or more bases in four straight seasons, as well as a plus arm in the outfield, though his instincts are just decent enough that he's more of a "very good" defender than an elite one. Set to turn 25 in July, he's not the youngest prospect any more, but it still remains to be seen what he turns into at the big league level, all depending on how he manages the strike zone against big league pitching.
- Stuart Fairchild (2020 Age: 24): Fairchild was a second round pick out of Wake Forest in 2017, and he's put up solid if unspectacular numbers as he's risen through the minors. In 2019, he slashed .264/.352/.441 with 12 home runs and an 83/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona Beach and AA Chattanooga, and he actually hit better at the higher level (.275/.380/.444) than at the lower level (.258/.335/.440). 2019 was a nice step forward for a few reasons, one being that he cut his strikeout rate when he got to AA and another being that he started to tap into a little bit of power – there's not a ton in his skinny, 6' frame, but by finding the barrel more in 2019, he naturally ran into more power. At this point, he looks like a fringe-starter who could hit around ten home runs per season with high on-base percentages and above average defense in the outfield, but he's trending in the right direction and he might not be too far off from reaching that projection.
- TJ Friedl (2020 Age: 24-25): Friedl went undrafted out of Nevada in 2016, but that was only because nobody, including himself, knew he was eligible, but once everyone figured it out, he signed for $735,000 (third round money) as a free agent. He hit really well in his first couple of pro seasons, but the bat has stalled so far in the upper minors and 2019 was a tough year. Bothered by ankle problems, he slashed just .235/.347/.385 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 50/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at AA Chattanooga before he was finally shut down for the season in July, and while that certainly dents his stock, I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He still showed a great understanding of the strike zone while keeping his strikeouts down and his walks up against advanced pitching, and while he didn't hit for a ton of impact in 2019, he's previously shown great feel for the barrel that gives him plenty of gap power if not too much in the way of home run power. He also has a lot of speed that plays well on the bases and in the outfield, giving him a good chance to end up as a valuable fourth outfielder if he can bounce back with a healthy 2020.
- Jameson Hannah (2020 Age: 22-23): The A's drafted Hannah in the second round out of Dallas Baptist in 2018, then shipped him to the Reds for Tanner Roark in 2019. He slashed .274/.339/.369 with two home runs and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between the two High A affiliates, though he did slump a bit at the end of the season. Hannah is a shorter guy at 5'9", but he has a quick swing and good feel for the barrel from the left side that should enable him to post high on-base percentages even if he lacks much in the way of power. He's also one of the faster runners in his new system, though he's still learning to deploy his speed effectively on the bases and in the outfield. He was young for a college draftee in 2018 and doesn't turn 23 until August, so while he has some work to do, he has a bit more time to figure it out as well. I don't think he'll hit enough to be a future leadoff man, but he has a high floor and should end up as a fourth outfielder.
- Andy Sugilio (2020 Age: 23): Sugilio has never been a big name, and it certainly wasn't after he slashed .221/.287/.288 as a 19 year old in the complex level Arizona League in 2016. However, he hit .345/.390/.472 in rookie ball in 2017 and .278/.308/.380 in Class A in 2018, then continued hitting in 2019 with a .294/.331/.360 slash line, three home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Daytona. He's moved very slowly through the minors, but he may finally be putting the pieces together with a quick, strong swing from the left side, natural power in his 6'2" frame, and enough speed to make him a weapon on the bases. He makes consistent hard contact and avoids strikeouts, but too often, he's been pounding the ball into the ground. If anybody could break out by joining the Fly Ball Revolution, it's Sugilio, and I'd be interested to see if he could match his career home run total (12 in 419 games) with a more fly ball-oriented approach in 2020.
- Michael Siani (2020 Age: 20-21): Siani was the Reds' fourth round pick out of a Philadelphia high school in 2018, though he signed for borderline first round money at $2 million then hit well in his pro debut (.288/.351/.386). In 2019, he slashed .253/.333/.339 with six home runs, 45 stolen bases, and a 109/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Dayton, his speed showing up nicely but his power, not so much. Siani was supposed to be a bit of a project on offense, so a .333 on-base percentage in full season ball actually isn't too shabby for a 19-20 year old, and he did keep his strikeout rate reasonably low. The next step for him will be adding some power, as he has some natural pop in his 6'1" frame but didn't quite tap it as much as he may have liked to in the colder Midwest League environment. He's known for his speed and defense, as he'll definitely stick in center field as one of the best defenders in the system, which of course buys the bat plenty of time. The speed certainly showed up, too, as he was one of just ten minor leaguers to steal 45 bases this year. After Siri, he likely has the highest ceiling of any outfielder in this system as a true center fielder who can post high on-base percentages and 10-15 home runs per season, but he also has a lot of work to do to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Narciso Crook, Michael Beltre, Lorenzo Cedrola, Mariel Bautista, Quin Cotton, Wendell Marrero
Starting Pitching
- Tony Santillan (2020 Age: 23): The Reds drafted Santillan in the second round out of high school in Seguin, Texas in 2015, and he's risen slowly but steadily up the minor league ladder. After a dominant 2018 (3.08 ERA, 134/38 K/BB), he took a bit of a step back in 2019 by posting a 4.84 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 92/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AA Chattanooga, and he missed the last month of the season with triceps problems. He's got big league stuff, starting with a mid 90's fastball and also including a good slider and changeup, but after making big gains with his command in 2018, he regressed again in 2019. The command was shaky enough this year that he got hit much more than he should have given his stuff, and he'll have to get back to where he was last year if he wants to reach his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter. That's really it on Santillan – put 2019 behind him, hit his spots like he did in 2018, and go from there.
- Vladimir Gutierrez (2020 Age: 24): The Reds signed three players from Havana in 2016 and 2017 for a combined $16.75 million, and Gutierrez, the cheapest of the three at $4.75 million, beat both Alfredo Rodriguez ($7 million) and Jose Garcia ($5 million) to AAA. After a strong 2018 in AA (4.35 ERA, 145/38 K/BB), he did struggle a bit with that assignment to AAA, posting a 6.04 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 117/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 innings for Louisville, though he did finish strong with a 2.83 ERA and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his final five starts. He has a deep plunge in the back of his delivery, which helps him get good angle on all three of his pitches. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and he adds a nice two-plane curveball and a diving changeup, all of which benefit from that aforementioned angle. His control is solid, but he fell victim to the home run frequently in 2019 as he wasn't able to avoid barrels inside the zone as often as he would have liked. Gutierrez has big league stuff, so the key will be getting more consistent with his curveball and hitting his spots better on the corners. If he can do that, he'll be a #3 or a #4 starter, but if he can't, he's probably a reliever.
- Packy Naughton (2020 Age: 24): I watched Naughton extensively in college, and he's a really interesting case. At Virginia Tech, he flashed good stuff but struggled to command it, keep his delivery intact, and stay out of his own head, and he finished with a 6.15 ERA over three seasons. The Reds still drafted him in the ninth round in 2017, and the results were immediate. His stuff hasn't really taken a step forward and plays closer to average now that he's out of the ACC and into pro ball, but he's learned to repeat his delivery much more consistently and his command is now a tick above average. The adjustments enabled him to put up excellent numbers in 2019, including a 3.32 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 innings at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, but they all play up because of his funky delivery that hitters just have a hard time picking up. That's probably a #4 starter profile in the majors, but the Reds have to be extremely happy with his development to this point and he still has a fallback option as a funky left handed reliever, where he should be very effective.
- Hunter Greene (2020 Age: 20-21): Sometimes injuries can be more disappointing than anything else, and while it's not surprising that a teenager who threw 102 would go down with Tommy John surgery, I think we all felt a little gut punch when it was announced Greene had blown out his elbow and would have to miss the 2019 season. Fortunately, he's still really young and doesn't turn 21 until August, so the 2017 second overall pick still has plenty of time to develop. The Reds will therefore take it slow with him in 2020 as he builds back his strength before hopefully cutting him loose in 2021. It's very clear where all the hype lies with Greene. His fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's with ease, and I saw him hit 102 in person – let me tell you, if you think you've ever seen someone throw a ball fast, you haven't. 102 is just different, plain and simple. Now he still had a 4.48 ERA in 2018 because the rest of his game needs work. His slider looks like a plus pitch at times, but he doesn't always get the shape on it that he wants, and his changeup is more or less average. He's an exceptional athlete with an easy delivery, but his command plays closer to average and he still needs to hit his spots more consistently. Greene has a lot of work to do, and with that velocity and his work ethic, anything is possible, but I'd project him more as a mid-rotation starter than as an ace at this point.
- Mac Sceroler (2020 Age: 25): Sceroler was the Reds' fifth round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2017, then after an up and down first full season in 2018 (4.97 ERA, 81/30 K/BB), he broke out in 2019 to put himself on the map. This year, he had a 3.69 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 127/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A Daytona, a step forward in his command being the major difference. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball and a changeup, a fringy group of pitches as a whole but one that plays up nicely now that he's been controlling the zone better. He turns 25 at the start of the season, so he's not the youngest prospect in the system, but he has back of the rotation potential.
- Nick Lodolo (2020 Age: 22): Drafted 41st overall by the Pirates in 2016, Lodolo instead went to TCU and after two good-not-great seasons, he put it together in his junior year and found himself drafted seventh overall by the Reds as the first pitcher taken off the board. He didn't pitch much after a long college season, but still posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, 30 strikeouts in 18.1 innings without walking a single batter (though he did hit one) at rookie level Billings and Class A Dayton. He's a 6'6" lefty that cleaned up his mechanics in 2019, and that enabled him to throw more strikes and get more out of his stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up due to the angle he gets on it, and he's moved away from an average curveball towards a sharper slider, which he's still figuring out. He also adds a good changeup, and together that's the upside of a #2 or #3 starter if he can sharpen that slider further. With his good command, he should move relatively quickly through the minors.
- Lyon Richardson (2020 Age: 20): The Reds have a couple of power high school arms down in their low minors, and while Jacob Heatherly and James Marinan have gotten off to slow starts, Richardson was solid in his first full season. The Reds drafted him in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2018, and after getting knocked around in his pro debut (7.14 ERA, 24/16 K/BB), he posted a 4.15 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 106/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.2 innings at Class A Dayton in 2019. His fastball is his best weapon, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and his slider has improved in pro ball to give him a second good pitch. He's still working on getting more consistent with his curve and his changeup, but he also made progress with his command in 2019, which is now closer to average. There's a lot more work to be done here, but he's a better pitcher than he was a year ago, and the Reds hope he'll maintain that trajectory in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Tejay Antone, Jared Solomon, Ryan Lillie, James Marinan, Graham Ashcraft, Jacob Heatherly
Relief Pitching
- Joel Kuhnel (2020 Age: 25): If we're talking about Kuhnel, we're talking about velocity. The Reds' eleventh round pick out of UT-Arlington in 2016 sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, both of which can creep above 90. Additionally, the 6'5" righty can command everything very well, which is not common for pitchers who throw that hard. In 2019, he had a 2.18 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 50/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, then put up a 4.66 ERA and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 9.2 big league innings. As it stands, Kuhnel is probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning type, but just a little bit of refinement to either of his secondary pitches, which stand out more for their velocity than for their movement, could get him there.
- Jose De Leon (2020 Age: 27-28): The Dodgers drafted De Leon in the 24th round out of Southern University way back in 2013, but he quickly established himself as a big time arm and reached the majors in 2016. However, he's battled numerous injuries and has been traded twice since then, first to the Rays for Logan Forsythe in 2017 then, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, to the Reds for cash or a player to be named later in 2019. This past year in the Rays organization, he had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between High A and AAA, and over three years in the majors, he has a 6.08 ERA and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. He's still a starter at this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen given the competition at the top of the Reds' system as well as his long history of arm troubles. His velocity has fluctuated but he can sit in the low to mid 90's at best, and he adds a slider and a true weapon of a changeup. His command has been understandably inconsistent, but a move to the bullpen could enable him to focus on his fastball/changeup combination and hopefully take some of the strain off his arm. It would also enable him to contribute immediately in 2020.
- Ryan Hendrix (2020 Age: 25): The Reds picked Hendrix in the fifth round of the 2016 draft out of Texas A&M, and he's pitched really well with a 2.55 ERA so far in the minors. In 2019, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings between AA Chattanooga and complex level rehab work, though he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. Fortunately, he made a healthy return in July, and he was back to throwing mid 90's fastballs and power curveballs that could carve through minor league bats. That breaking ball is sharper than Kuhnel's, but he doesn't have the same kind of command, as his has been much spottier. Health is obviously the first big thing, but if he can prove that, he'll also need to throw more consistent strikes if he wants to be more than a middle reliever. He does have the stuff to profile in the late innings.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Byrne, Dauri Moreta, Diomar Lopez, Randy Wynne, Matt Pidich
Showing posts with label Tyler Callihan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tyler Callihan. Show all posts
Saturday, December 28, 2019
Sunday, July 21, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds
First five rounds: Nick Lodolo (1-7), Rece Hinds (2-49), Tyler Callihan (3-85), Ivan Johnson (4-114), Evan Kravetz (5-144)
Also notable: Graham Ashcraft (6-174), Eric Yang (7-204), Patrick Raby (17-504)
The Reds had a good draft here, starting with the best pitcher in the class and moving forward with two of the better high school hitters available, both signed to overslot bonuses. They mixed up positions as well as high school versus college players, and the overall class is well rounded. I particularly like the two high school bats and think the Reds spent their extra bonus money well, and they could get two impact bats.
1-7: LHP Nick Lodolo (Texas Christian, my rank: 7)
It was a down year for pitching, but Nick Lodolo was the best of the weak crop and the Reds got him at seventh overall. Lodolo was a very well regarded prospect out of a Southern California high school in 2016, when he ranked 76th on my list and turned down the Pirates as the 41st overall selection, but he didn't quite put it all together over his first two years at TCU with ERA's of 4.35 and 4.32, respectively. However, he did put it together this year and posted a 2.36 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 131/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings for the Horned Frogs, his best start of the season coming on May 16th when he tossed eight shutout innings against a tough Texas Tech lineup, allowing five hits and no walks while striking out 13. Lodolo is a 6'6" lefty who cleaned up his mechanics this season, giving him good angle on a low 90's fastball, two breaking balls that he's still figuring out, and a solid changeup that keeps hitters off balance. He previously used a decent curveball, but he has transitioned over to more of a good slider, and sharpening that slider will be a big key for him going forward. He also commands everything pretty well, and with the potential to add even more velocity and sharpen his breaking balls further, he has #2 starter upside. However, I see him more as a #3 guy as a more realistic projection. Lodolo signed at slot for $5.43 million and has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a sparkling 21/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 innings at rookie level Billings.
2-49: 3B Rece Hinds (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 35)
Rece Hinds is one of the more polarizing prospects in the class this year, but the Reds liked his tremendous upside enough to give him an overslot deal here at 49th overall. They drafted him as a shortstop, but I went ahead and listed him as a third baseman because there is no way he sticks at short (and he's already playing third in the Appalachian League). Even at third, Hinds' glove is fringy and needs some work, but he does have a shot to stick there if he can get more consistent with his glove. Anyways, he's much more interesting as a hitter, where his plus raw power is possibly the best in the class, easily up there with Brett Baty and Keoni Cavaco. The 6'4" slugger originally from the town of Niceville in the Florida Panhandle can hit some absolute moonshots, and that power plays up in games against premium velocity. However, Hinds is a dead-red hitter who really struggles with breaking stuff, and you have to assume he'll get a steady diet of those immediately in pro ball. His hands aren't the quickest to the ball and that causes a lot of his swing and miss, which the Reds will want to help him fix, but the pitch recognition will be the biggest challenge here. Hinds has huge upside as an Aaron Judge-type hitter, but he comes with a ton of risk. Committed to Louisiana State, he signed for $1.8 million, which w as $290,000 above slot, and he's hitless through eight at bats at rookie level Greeneville, striking out three times and walking twice.
3-85: 2B Tyler Callihan (Providence HS [FL], my rank: 34)
I spent a lot of time trying to decide which Florida high school hitter I liked better between Hinds and Tyler Callihan, and while I ultimately ranked Callihan one spot ahead of Hinds, it's still really close. Callihan is high school draftee from Jacksonville, where he shows great feel for the barrel that allows him to make consistent hard contact and hit for some power even against top competition, even though he's a stocky six feet tall. The bat will absolutely play at the next level, and while getting to above average power isn't a guarantee, some mechanical changes should help him do so. Together, that projection comes out to 20 or so home runs per season, potentially 25 or more if he can make the necessary adjustments, and high on-base percentages. Defensively, he comes with a lot of question marks and could end up at first base, second, or third. He's not the most athletic player and probably fits best at first base, but he's a little short for a first baseman and the Reds would probably rather he figure out how to make it work elsewhere in the infield. It's interesting that the Reds drafted him as a second baseman but he probably fits better at third, but we'll see. Committed to Florida, he signed for $1.5 million, which was $789,300 above slot, and he's slashing .244/.277/.400 with two home runs and a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games with Hinds at Greeneville.
4-114: 2B Ivan Johnson (Chipola JC, unranked)
Ivan Johnson started out at Georgia but transferred to powerhouse junior college Chipola for his sophomore year when he didn't get as much playing time as he wanted, and it paid off for him. The Atlanta-area native slashed .381/.491/.587 with nine home runs and a 37/34 strikeout to walk ratio on the Florida JuCo circuit, showing a projectable bat from both sides of the plate. The switch hitter is trending upwards with his quick, explosive bat that produces good power, and he seems to have improved his plate discipline this year after looking overmatched in the SEC as a freshman. Johnson is also a good defender that can handle himself anywhere in the infield, though it looks like the Reds are going to stick him at second base going forward. He could project for 20 or more home runs annually with middling on-base percentages, though he does have some work to do to get to that projection. If his bat doesn't quite materialize, he still profiles well as a utility infielder. Committed to South Carolina for his junior season, he signed for $397,500, which was $109,900 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.296/.337 with a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games with Hinds and Callihan at Greeneville.
5-144: LHP Evan Kravetz (Rice, unranked)
There is not much scouting info on Evan Kravetz out there, as he wasn't listed in MLB Pipeline's top 200 prospects or in Baseball America's top 500, plus there's no video of him on YouTube. What I do know is that he spent three years as a reliever at Rice before transitioning over to the starting rotation this year as a senior, and he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings as the team's Saturday starter behind ace (and Twins second rounder) Matt Canterino. Kravetz, from the Miami area, is listed at 6'8" and 240 pounds, and that helps him get good downhill slope on his pitches. He throws a curveball and a changeup as well, which helped him generate a ton of strikeouts this year. Since I don't know much else about him, I can't really say whether he's projected as a starter or a reliever, though as a senior, he turned 22 in December. He signed for $112,500, which was $266,500 below slot, and he pitched a scoreless inning in his first appearance for Greeneville.
6-174: RHP Graham Ashcraft (Alabama-Birmingham, unranked)
Graham Ashcraft has always had exceptional stuff, but he's never quite put it together in college ball. Beginning his career at Mississippi State, he missed the 2018 season with injuries and transferred to the University of Alabama-Birmingham in his home state, then was up and down this year. He posted a 5.62 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 53/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, starting off strong by dominating his old teammates at Mississippi State (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 7 K) but eventually getting blown up more often than not and ending up in the bullpen. That's likely where his future will lie, though the Reds have trotted him out as a starter so far with mixed results. The Huntsville native can sit in the mid 90's at his best, but he also dips into the low 90's regularly and rarely throws consistent strikes. He also adds a few breaking balls, most notably his above average slider, but as with his fastball velocity, he's inconsistent there. The Reds will hope to smooth out his mechanics and get him throwing strikes at least sometimes, and they'll also hope to get him consistent with his velocity and breaking stuff. Moving him to the bullpen could help him with that and that's probably where he ends up after the Reds are done with this experiment. The 6'2" righty signed for $247,500, which was $39,000 below slot, and he has a 5.63 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 29/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings with Greeneville. His minor league numbers are actually skewed by one awful start on July 2nd in which he allowed ten runs, as he has a 2.05 ERA in his other five starts.
7-204: C Eric Yang (UC-Santa Barbara, unranked)
Eric Yang gives the Reds another catcher for their pipeline, and he fits the clear backup catcher mold. The Los Angeles-area native had a breakout year with the bat this spring, slashing .368/.479/.545 with seven home runs and a 29/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, certainly not bad for someone playing the most grueling position on the field. He's got some sneaky pop in his 5'11" frame but will likely hit for more contact than power, using his advanced plate discipline to get his pitches and drive them. He's also a competent defender behind the plate who will stick back there, that makes him your prototypical backup catcher. Yang signed for $197,500, which was $26,500 below slot, and he's slashing .386/.486/.491 with a home run and a 16/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 17 games with Billings.
17-504: RHP Patrick Raby (Vanderbilt, unranked)
Patrick Raby doesn't have overwhelming stuff or good command, but he still managed to dominate the SEC for four years as one of Vanderbilt's big time arms. The Knoxville-area native went 32-11 with a 2.98 ERA over four years, and this season he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an 81/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings as a senior. He rarely touches 90 with his fastball, mixes in a couple of offspeeds, and has average command of everything. Yet he has a very strong feel for pitching that enables him to perform well against good hitters. He will need a big jump forward in his stuff in order to work his way up to the majors, but his feel for pitching should give him his best chance to do so. He signed, for $10,000 and has thrown 5.1 shutout innings with eight strikeouts over three appearances for Greeneville.
Also notable: Graham Ashcraft (6-174), Eric Yang (7-204), Patrick Raby (17-504)
The Reds had a good draft here, starting with the best pitcher in the class and moving forward with two of the better high school hitters available, both signed to overslot bonuses. They mixed up positions as well as high school versus college players, and the overall class is well rounded. I particularly like the two high school bats and think the Reds spent their extra bonus money well, and they could get two impact bats.
1-7: LHP Nick Lodolo (Texas Christian, my rank: 7)
It was a down year for pitching, but Nick Lodolo was the best of the weak crop and the Reds got him at seventh overall. Lodolo was a very well regarded prospect out of a Southern California high school in 2016, when he ranked 76th on my list and turned down the Pirates as the 41st overall selection, but he didn't quite put it all together over his first two years at TCU with ERA's of 4.35 and 4.32, respectively. However, he did put it together this year and posted a 2.36 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 131/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings for the Horned Frogs, his best start of the season coming on May 16th when he tossed eight shutout innings against a tough Texas Tech lineup, allowing five hits and no walks while striking out 13. Lodolo is a 6'6" lefty who cleaned up his mechanics this season, giving him good angle on a low 90's fastball, two breaking balls that he's still figuring out, and a solid changeup that keeps hitters off balance. He previously used a decent curveball, but he has transitioned over to more of a good slider, and sharpening that slider will be a big key for him going forward. He also commands everything pretty well, and with the potential to add even more velocity and sharpen his breaking balls further, he has #2 starter upside. However, I see him more as a #3 guy as a more realistic projection. Lodolo signed at slot for $5.43 million and has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a sparkling 21/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 innings at rookie level Billings.
2-49: 3B Rece Hinds (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 35)
Rece Hinds is one of the more polarizing prospects in the class this year, but the Reds liked his tremendous upside enough to give him an overslot deal here at 49th overall. They drafted him as a shortstop, but I went ahead and listed him as a third baseman because there is no way he sticks at short (and he's already playing third in the Appalachian League). Even at third, Hinds' glove is fringy and needs some work, but he does have a shot to stick there if he can get more consistent with his glove. Anyways, he's much more interesting as a hitter, where his plus raw power is possibly the best in the class, easily up there with Brett Baty and Keoni Cavaco. The 6'4" slugger originally from the town of Niceville in the Florida Panhandle can hit some absolute moonshots, and that power plays up in games against premium velocity. However, Hinds is a dead-red hitter who really struggles with breaking stuff, and you have to assume he'll get a steady diet of those immediately in pro ball. His hands aren't the quickest to the ball and that causes a lot of his swing and miss, which the Reds will want to help him fix, but the pitch recognition will be the biggest challenge here. Hinds has huge upside as an Aaron Judge-type hitter, but he comes with a ton of risk. Committed to Louisiana State, he signed for $1.8 million, which w as $290,000 above slot, and he's hitless through eight at bats at rookie level Greeneville, striking out three times and walking twice.
3-85: 2B Tyler Callihan (Providence HS [FL], my rank: 34)
I spent a lot of time trying to decide which Florida high school hitter I liked better between Hinds and Tyler Callihan, and while I ultimately ranked Callihan one spot ahead of Hinds, it's still really close. Callihan is high school draftee from Jacksonville, where he shows great feel for the barrel that allows him to make consistent hard contact and hit for some power even against top competition, even though he's a stocky six feet tall. The bat will absolutely play at the next level, and while getting to above average power isn't a guarantee, some mechanical changes should help him do so. Together, that projection comes out to 20 or so home runs per season, potentially 25 or more if he can make the necessary adjustments, and high on-base percentages. Defensively, he comes with a lot of question marks and could end up at first base, second, or third. He's not the most athletic player and probably fits best at first base, but he's a little short for a first baseman and the Reds would probably rather he figure out how to make it work elsewhere in the infield. It's interesting that the Reds drafted him as a second baseman but he probably fits better at third, but we'll see. Committed to Florida, he signed for $1.5 million, which was $789,300 above slot, and he's slashing .244/.277/.400 with two home runs and a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games with Hinds at Greeneville.
4-114: 2B Ivan Johnson (Chipola JC, unranked)
Ivan Johnson started out at Georgia but transferred to powerhouse junior college Chipola for his sophomore year when he didn't get as much playing time as he wanted, and it paid off for him. The Atlanta-area native slashed .381/.491/.587 with nine home runs and a 37/34 strikeout to walk ratio on the Florida JuCo circuit, showing a projectable bat from both sides of the plate. The switch hitter is trending upwards with his quick, explosive bat that produces good power, and he seems to have improved his plate discipline this year after looking overmatched in the SEC as a freshman. Johnson is also a good defender that can handle himself anywhere in the infield, though it looks like the Reds are going to stick him at second base going forward. He could project for 20 or more home runs annually with middling on-base percentages, though he does have some work to do to get to that projection. If his bat doesn't quite materialize, he still profiles well as a utility infielder. Committed to South Carolina for his junior season, he signed for $397,500, which was $109,900 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.296/.337 with a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games with Hinds and Callihan at Greeneville.
5-144: LHP Evan Kravetz (Rice, unranked)
There is not much scouting info on Evan Kravetz out there, as he wasn't listed in MLB Pipeline's top 200 prospects or in Baseball America's top 500, plus there's no video of him on YouTube. What I do know is that he spent three years as a reliever at Rice before transitioning over to the starting rotation this year as a senior, and he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings as the team's Saturday starter behind ace (and Twins second rounder) Matt Canterino. Kravetz, from the Miami area, is listed at 6'8" and 240 pounds, and that helps him get good downhill slope on his pitches. He throws a curveball and a changeup as well, which helped him generate a ton of strikeouts this year. Since I don't know much else about him, I can't really say whether he's projected as a starter or a reliever, though as a senior, he turned 22 in December. He signed for $112,500, which was $266,500 below slot, and he pitched a scoreless inning in his first appearance for Greeneville.
6-174: RHP Graham Ashcraft (Alabama-Birmingham, unranked)
Graham Ashcraft has always had exceptional stuff, but he's never quite put it together in college ball. Beginning his career at Mississippi State, he missed the 2018 season with injuries and transferred to the University of Alabama-Birmingham in his home state, then was up and down this year. He posted a 5.62 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 53/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, starting off strong by dominating his old teammates at Mississippi State (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 7 K) but eventually getting blown up more often than not and ending up in the bullpen. That's likely where his future will lie, though the Reds have trotted him out as a starter so far with mixed results. The Huntsville native can sit in the mid 90's at his best, but he also dips into the low 90's regularly and rarely throws consistent strikes. He also adds a few breaking balls, most notably his above average slider, but as with his fastball velocity, he's inconsistent there. The Reds will hope to smooth out his mechanics and get him throwing strikes at least sometimes, and they'll also hope to get him consistent with his velocity and breaking stuff. Moving him to the bullpen could help him with that and that's probably where he ends up after the Reds are done with this experiment. The 6'2" righty signed for $247,500, which was $39,000 below slot, and he has a 5.63 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 29/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings with Greeneville. His minor league numbers are actually skewed by one awful start on July 2nd in which he allowed ten runs, as he has a 2.05 ERA in his other five starts.
7-204: C Eric Yang (UC-Santa Barbara, unranked)
Eric Yang gives the Reds another catcher for their pipeline, and he fits the clear backup catcher mold. The Los Angeles-area native had a breakout year with the bat this spring, slashing .368/.479/.545 with seven home runs and a 29/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, certainly not bad for someone playing the most grueling position on the field. He's got some sneaky pop in his 5'11" frame but will likely hit for more contact than power, using his advanced plate discipline to get his pitches and drive them. He's also a competent defender behind the plate who will stick back there, that makes him your prototypical backup catcher. Yang signed for $197,500, which was $26,500 below slot, and he's slashing .386/.486/.491 with a home run and a 16/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 17 games with Billings.
17-504: RHP Patrick Raby (Vanderbilt, unranked)
Patrick Raby doesn't have overwhelming stuff or good command, but he still managed to dominate the SEC for four years as one of Vanderbilt's big time arms. The Knoxville-area native went 32-11 with a 2.98 ERA over four years, and this season he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an 81/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings as a senior. He rarely touches 90 with his fastball, mixes in a couple of offspeeds, and has average command of everything. Yet he has a very strong feel for pitching that enables him to perform well against good hitters. He will need a big jump forward in his stuff in order to work his way up to the majors, but his feel for pitching should give him his best chance to do so. He signed, for $10,000 and has thrown 5.1 shutout innings with eight strikeouts over three appearances for Greeneville.
Monday, May 13, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: First Basemen
This is more of a preliminary list of first basemen, as many current third basemen (Josh Jung, Kody Hoese, Drew Mendoza, Rece Hinds, etc.) could be forced across the diamond as pressure mounts on their glove-work. Once a player ends up at first, the pressure is immediately on the bat to perform because most of these guys aren't providing much value defensively. That said, there is a group of first basemen in this class that can really hit, and it's led by California's Andrew Vaughn, one of the best hitters in recent draft memory. Behind him, everyone else has questions about something, whether contact, power, or both, but all carry potent bats with high upside.
Tier I: Andrew Vaughn
The Cal slugger stands alone in the first tier. Andrew Vaughn is as good as it gets at the plate, following up his monster sophomore season (23 HR, .402/.531/.819, 18/44 K/BB) with a big junior season, slashing .374/.530/712 with 14 home runs and a 28/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games (including .318/.465/.580 with five home runs in 24 games against a tough in-conference schedule). Vaughn is incredibly disciplined at the plate, walking just about twice as often as he strikes out and putting himself in a great position to handle higher level pitching. That helps him get to his big raw power often, as he has cracked 49 home runs over 154 games at Cal, slugging .690 along the way. Vaughn looks like a fairly safe bet to be a middle of the order masher, which should alleviate any concerns over his lack of defensive value. He figures to go either to the White Sox with the third pick or the Marlins with the fourth pick, with a small chance he falls to the Tigers at #5 or Padres at #6.
Tier II: Michael Busch, Logan Wyatt, Tyler Callihan
After Vaughn, we are unlikely to see another first baseman taken until the back half of the first round. There, three more bats come into play, though each has their share of question marks. UNC's Michael Busch followed up a big sophomore season (13 HR, .317/.465/.521, 30/55 K/BB) with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), then came out and slashed .285/.447/.543 with 12 home runs and a 34/50 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 51 games this season. Busch showcases big raw power with a keen eye at the plate, and that advanced plate discipline helped drive his performance on the Cape. Mechanically, he keeps his hands back well, but sometimes they look like they take a little bit too long to get going, which could lead to swing and miss concerns at the next level. Still, he has a very strong track record to stand on, and he could fit into the second half of the first round as a potential high on-base, home run-hitting producer, albeit with a bit more risk than Vaughn. Meanwhile, Louisville's Logan Wyatt has a fairly similar profile to Busch, showing a better present approach at the plate with a bit less power. After slashing .339/.490/.522 with six home runs and a 37/63 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he hit well on the Cape (4 HR, .305/.458/.438, 24/29 K/BB) and has been strong during his junior season, slashing .304/.472/.508 with eight home runs and a 36/57 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Wyatt, like Vaughn, has an exceptional feel for the strike zone that should have no problem playing up at the next level, and while his power has played closer to average at Louisville, he has started to add some loft to his swing and could his his 6'4" frame to eventually hit 20-30 home runs per season. Given that Busch looks on track to land in that range as well, I actually prefer Wyatt as a prospect and would draft him before his ACC rival. That looks unlikely to happen, though, and Wyatt probably fits somewhere in the comp round in the 30-40 range. Tyler Callihan, a high schooler from Jacksonville, is actually a third baseman at this point, but I include him here due to the lack of present-first basemen and the strong possibility that he is forced across the diamond. Callihan stands just 5'11", small for a corner infielder, but he has great feel for the barrel and consistently sprays line drives and extra base hits around the field. The South Carolina commit also generates a fair amount of loft and torque in his swing, giving him the chance to turn those doubles into home runs down the line, and he's a better contact hitter (relative to his age) than Busch and possibly Wyatt at this point. He also may be able to stick at third base, where there would be less pressure for him to develop power. Like Wyatt, he figures to go somewhere in the comp round or early second round.
Tier III: Spencer Jones, Michael Toglia, Spencer Brickhouse
The third tier of guys obviously come with their own set of questions, all showing the tools to be impact hitters at the next level but but also having holes in their profile. Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones has one of the more unique profiles in this class, as he is the top two-way player in the draft and could very realistically, even likely, be drafted as a pitcher. Additionally, he opened enough eyes over the summer to earn some first round buzz, but an elbow injury (not Tommy John) cost him his whole spring, and he's really all projection and not much track record at this point. Standing 6'7", he generates a lot of power from the left side and made pretty good contact over the summer, giving him a ton of upside at the plate if he were to give up hitting and focus solely on improving and getting to that power. However, without much of a track record, it may be difficult for teams to pay enough money to keep him away from his Vanderbilt commitment. It's hard to project where he'll be drafted, but he currently looks like a second rounder based on talent alone. Over at UCLA, Michael Toglia has been right in the middle of a Bruins lineup that has powered the team to the top of the college baseball world (so far), though his numbers are down a hair from his sophomore season. After slashing .336/.449/.588 with 11 home runs and a 60/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he's down to .303/.374/.585 with 11 home runs and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 games in 2019. He has a simple swing (from both sides of the plate) with some loft that should help him continue to produce at the next level, but he also lacks the strong plate discipline that has pushed Busch and Wyatt into first round consideration. That led to a more pedestrian .209/.323/.388 line with seven home runs on the Cape, though switch hitters do take longer to develop sometimes and Toglia also won't be 21 until August, making him one of the younger college players available. He looks like a second rounder at this point with the potential to hit 20-30 home runs in the majors with middling on-base percentages – a classic #5 hitter. Lastly, despite there being more draft buzz around his teammate Bryant Packard coming into the season, Spencer Brickhouse has led the East Carolina offense by slashing .333/.473/.648 with 12 home runs and a 36/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games. Standing at 6'4", he uses a simple swing and quick wrists to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences, though his low and wide setup at the plate sometimes causes the bat path to get a little long. He has solid plate discipline working in his favor and he has produced in college ball, so he shout fit somewhere into rounds three through five.
Others: Andrew Daschbach, Jason Hodges, Henry Gargus, Garrett Frechette, Joe Naranjo
Tier I: Andrew Vaughn
The Cal slugger stands alone in the first tier. Andrew Vaughn is as good as it gets at the plate, following up his monster sophomore season (23 HR, .402/.531/.819, 18/44 K/BB) with a big junior season, slashing .374/.530/712 with 14 home runs and a 28/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games (including .318/.465/.580 with five home runs in 24 games against a tough in-conference schedule). Vaughn is incredibly disciplined at the plate, walking just about twice as often as he strikes out and putting himself in a great position to handle higher level pitching. That helps him get to his big raw power often, as he has cracked 49 home runs over 154 games at Cal, slugging .690 along the way. Vaughn looks like a fairly safe bet to be a middle of the order masher, which should alleviate any concerns over his lack of defensive value. He figures to go either to the White Sox with the third pick or the Marlins with the fourth pick, with a small chance he falls to the Tigers at #5 or Padres at #6.
Tier II: Michael Busch, Logan Wyatt, Tyler Callihan
After Vaughn, we are unlikely to see another first baseman taken until the back half of the first round. There, three more bats come into play, though each has their share of question marks. UNC's Michael Busch followed up a big sophomore season (13 HR, .317/.465/.521, 30/55 K/BB) with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), then came out and slashed .285/.447/.543 with 12 home runs and a 34/50 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 51 games this season. Busch showcases big raw power with a keen eye at the plate, and that advanced plate discipline helped drive his performance on the Cape. Mechanically, he keeps his hands back well, but sometimes they look like they take a little bit too long to get going, which could lead to swing and miss concerns at the next level. Still, he has a very strong track record to stand on, and he could fit into the second half of the first round as a potential high on-base, home run-hitting producer, albeit with a bit more risk than Vaughn. Meanwhile, Louisville's Logan Wyatt has a fairly similar profile to Busch, showing a better present approach at the plate with a bit less power. After slashing .339/.490/.522 with six home runs and a 37/63 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he hit well on the Cape (4 HR, .305/.458/.438, 24/29 K/BB) and has been strong during his junior season, slashing .304/.472/.508 with eight home runs and a 36/57 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Wyatt, like Vaughn, has an exceptional feel for the strike zone that should have no problem playing up at the next level, and while his power has played closer to average at Louisville, he has started to add some loft to his swing and could his his 6'4" frame to eventually hit 20-30 home runs per season. Given that Busch looks on track to land in that range as well, I actually prefer Wyatt as a prospect and would draft him before his ACC rival. That looks unlikely to happen, though, and Wyatt probably fits somewhere in the comp round in the 30-40 range. Tyler Callihan, a high schooler from Jacksonville, is actually a third baseman at this point, but I include him here due to the lack of present-first basemen and the strong possibility that he is forced across the diamond. Callihan stands just 5'11", small for a corner infielder, but he has great feel for the barrel and consistently sprays line drives and extra base hits around the field. The South Carolina commit also generates a fair amount of loft and torque in his swing, giving him the chance to turn those doubles into home runs down the line, and he's a better contact hitter (relative to his age) than Busch and possibly Wyatt at this point. He also may be able to stick at third base, where there would be less pressure for him to develop power. Like Wyatt, he figures to go somewhere in the comp round or early second round.
Tier III: Spencer Jones, Michael Toglia, Spencer Brickhouse
The third tier of guys obviously come with their own set of questions, all showing the tools to be impact hitters at the next level but but also having holes in their profile. Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones has one of the more unique profiles in this class, as he is the top two-way player in the draft and could very realistically, even likely, be drafted as a pitcher. Additionally, he opened enough eyes over the summer to earn some first round buzz, but an elbow injury (not Tommy John) cost him his whole spring, and he's really all projection and not much track record at this point. Standing 6'7", he generates a lot of power from the left side and made pretty good contact over the summer, giving him a ton of upside at the plate if he were to give up hitting and focus solely on improving and getting to that power. However, without much of a track record, it may be difficult for teams to pay enough money to keep him away from his Vanderbilt commitment. It's hard to project where he'll be drafted, but he currently looks like a second rounder based on talent alone. Over at UCLA, Michael Toglia has been right in the middle of a Bruins lineup that has powered the team to the top of the college baseball world (so far), though his numbers are down a hair from his sophomore season. After slashing .336/.449/.588 with 11 home runs and a 60/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he's down to .303/.374/.585 with 11 home runs and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 games in 2019. He has a simple swing (from both sides of the plate) with some loft that should help him continue to produce at the next level, but he also lacks the strong plate discipline that has pushed Busch and Wyatt into first round consideration. That led to a more pedestrian .209/.323/.388 line with seven home runs on the Cape, though switch hitters do take longer to develop sometimes and Toglia also won't be 21 until August, making him one of the younger college players available. He looks like a second rounder at this point with the potential to hit 20-30 home runs in the majors with middling on-base percentages – a classic #5 hitter. Lastly, despite there being more draft buzz around his teammate Bryant Packard coming into the season, Spencer Brickhouse has led the East Carolina offense by slashing .333/.473/.648 with 12 home runs and a 36/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games. Standing at 6'4", he uses a simple swing and quick wrists to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences, though his low and wide setup at the plate sometimes causes the bat path to get a little long. He has solid plate discipline working in his favor and he has produced in college ball, so he shout fit somewhere into rounds three through five.
Others: Andrew Daschbach, Jason Hodges, Henry Gargus, Garrett Frechette, Joe Naranjo
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