1-4: LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M
CBA-32: SS Nick Loftin, Baylor
2-41: RHP Ben Hernandez, De La Salle HS (IL)
3-76: OF Tyler Gentry, Alabama
4-105: LHP Christian Chamberlain, Oregon State
5-135: RHP Will Klein, Eastern Illinois
When Heston Kjerstad and Max Meyer went second and third overall to the Orioles and Marlins, respectively, the Royals found themselves with an incredible choice at fourth overall: Austin Martin, the best all-around player in the draft, or Asa Lacy, by most accounts the best pitcher in the class. Having had huge success with their 2018 draft class full of college pitchers, they went with Lacy here, and they're hoping to see similar success. Behind Lacy, the Royals went over slot to bring in shortstop Nick Loftin, then went under slot the rest of the way. Ben Hernandez and Tyler Gentry bring nice upside, while Christian Chamberlain and Will Klein at the back of the draft are opposites on the mound to finish it out. I think it's a nice class, though I'm not too thrilled with the back half of the class, even considering they went under slot. However, they did make up for that with a fantastic run through the undrafted free agent market and were the only team to pick up a player who placed in my pre-draft rankings. One interesting geographic note here is that five of the six players were drafted out of the Central Time Zone (plus three of the top four UDFA signings), keeping it regional for the Royals. Yet another theme here was youth, as Lacy, Chamberlain, and Klein are all young for college juniors and Gentry is slightly on the younger side as well (though Hernandez is older for a high schooler).
Full index of team reviews here.
1-4: LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M (my rank: 3)
Choosing between Austin Martin and Asa Lacy at fourth overall was a best case scenario for the Royals, and they ended up with the arm. Lacy was a projectable lefty coming with top three rounds potential coming out of Tivy High School in Kerrville, Texas in 2017, but he bet on himself and headed to Texas A&M to grow his game. That's exactly what happened, and between his sophomore and junior seasons, Lacy went 11-4 with a 1.84 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 176/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.2 innings. The first thing you notice from the imposing 6'4" lefty is that he's big and Hill Country mean on the mound, aggressively attacking hitters with equally big stuff. The fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90's and tops out at 98, really exploding out of his hand with a heavy front shoulder pull right before release. Next comes a wipeout slider that stands out equally for its upper 80's velocity and its tremendous depth, sending hitters spinning. He adds a solid curveball that can flash above average as well and usually plays at least average, and his changeup isn't seen often but flashes plus when he does throw one. His command has steadily improved from below average in high school to average as a sophomore to perhaps a bit above average as a junior, giving scouts full confidence he can make the most of his nasty stuff. Now that he's throwing more strikes, it's really hard to find many holes in his profile. He has the velocity, wipeout breaking ball, full arsenal, command, size, track record, and perhaps most importantly, bulldog mentality to become a true impact starter, perhaps even an ace. In the Mariners writeup, I described Emerson Hancock as the most complete pitcher in the class due to his better command and mastery of mixing his four pitches, but Lacy is really close in that regard and has an even higher ceiling. His $6.67 million signing bonus was just about $6,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-32: SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (my rank: 28)
For their next pick, the Royals went back to Texas and grabbed Baylor's Nick Loftin, a three year performer for the Bears who slashed .313/.371/.481 with 14 home runs and a 48/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 career games. The Corpus Christi native has long been known for his elite bat to ball skills, but he's been finding the barrel more and more throughout his time in Waco and slashed a career-high .544 in the shortened 2020 season. The added power was apparent when he blasted a home run off LSU starter Landon Marceaux that left Houston's Minute Maid Park over the train tracks. That's not too shabby for a contact hitter. There are some slight concerns that his power increase in 2020 came with a slight bump in his slight swing and miss, but it was so low beforehand and remained low enough this year that I'm not concerned about it. That's a true plus hit tool and even if he settles for fringe-average power, we could be talking a high on-base guy that can knock 10-15 home runs a year in a middle of the road projection. As a consistent defender at shortstop who gets the job done, that will definitely play, though the presence of Bobby Witt Jr. in this farm system (another Texan from the Fort Worth suburbs) might bump Loftin to second base. That's okay, because he still has the bat to profile there and should be well above average at the position. At his absolute floor, Loftin will still be a valuable utility infielder, but I expect much more than that and the Royals do too. His $3 million signing bonus was about $742,700 above slot value, so they're completely bought in. Pre-draft profile here.
2-41: RHP Ben Hernandez, De La Salle HS, IL (my rank: 63)
By ranking him 63rd, I was a bit higher on Ben Hernandez than MLB Pipeline (#72) and Baseball America (#86), but it seems like the Royals liked him even more than I did. Because they got him under slot here, I will endorse it. Hernandez attended high school on the South Side of Chicago just blocks from the White Sox' Guaranteed Rate Field, and he's most well known for having the best changeup in the high school class. It has tremendous fade to the arm side and that sent prep hitters flailing and will continue to freeze batters in pro ball and beyond. Far from a one trick pony, he also has an above average fastball that sits in the low 90's and can bump as high as 95, jumping out of his hand from a natural motion. He commands the two pitches well and can tunnel them off each other, and if he adds a little bit of fastball velocity, it won't just be the changeup that's deadly. For now, his curveball is below average, with nice shape at times but not enough power to really be a swing and miss pitch. If he leaves it up, it's a home run ball in the minors. Still, between the velocity, changeup, command, and a sturdy 6'2" frame, he has plenty of starter traits right now and so long as he stays healthy, he's pretty low risk as far as high school pitchers go. To get the most out of him, though, the Royals will really want to refine that curveball into at least an average pitch, and his age does work against him a little bit, having turned 19 a few weeks after the draft. Committed to a smaller program in the University of Illinois-Chicago, he instead signed with the Royals for $1.45 million, about $360,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-76: OF Tyler Gentry, Alabama (my rank: 142)
This was probably my least favorite pick the Royals made, even though they got him under slot (barely). Tyler Gentry grew up in the Memphis area and began his career at Walters State CC on the other side of Tennessee, then transferred to Alabama as a sophomore and hit .310/.378/.552 with 13 home runs and a 51/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. After a so-so summer in the Cape Cod League, he burst out of the gate with a .429/.554/.750 slash line, four home runs, and a much more balanced 10/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games to start the 2020 season. After striking out in 21.4% of his plate appearances as a sophomore and 26.5% of the time on the Cape, he dropped that number to 13.5% in 2020, albeit against a weak non-conference schedule. His best tool is above average raw power that comes to him naturally from a simple right handed swing, and he's tapped that power consistently everywhere he's gone, including the Cape (though it played more to the gaps than over the fence there). However, he has an extremely aggressive approach that led to those big strikeout totals listed above, and since his 2020 competition was relatively weak, I don't necessarily buy the better plate discipline just yet. Fortunately, his strikeout concerns come more from chasing bad pitches than they do from swinging through hittable pitches, so the Royals believe they can pull together his hit tool if they just work with him on his pitch recognition. Either way, he might not move as quickly through the minors, at least at first, as other college bats. Gentry is also a good runner who might be able to handle center field and should at least be above average in right field, helping his overall profile. I'm not completely sold on his ability to handle pro pitching, but there is nice upside here as a 25-30 home run bat with workable on-base percentages and solid defense. He signed for $750,000, which was $68,200 below slot value.
4-105: LHP Christian Chamberlain, Oregon State (unranked)
Chamberlain just barely missed my rankings, riding a breakout junior season to a fourth round selection. He put up a 3.69 ERA and a 106/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings as a reliever over his first two seasons at Oregon State, then successfully transitioned to the rotation with a 0.82 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings this year. That wasn't just beating up on mediocre competition, as it included a 12 strikeout, no run performance against a loaded Mississippi State lineup. He's undersized at 5'10", but he brings big stuff. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's at best, though later in his starts it can tick down a little. He also brings an above average curveball with two plane break, as well as a solid changeup. All three pitches play up from a funky delivery with long arm action, as he hides the ball well behind his back thigh before bringing it back up for the release. All that movement means the command is so-so, as he's generally around the zone but doesn't hit his spots as consistently as you'd like. I see him more as a reliever, especially in this system that's already deep in starting pitching, where his fastball could sit more consistently in the mid 90's and his curve could add a little power. Given his ability to miss bats consistently, which he has shown against quality lineups as well, I could see him being a really interesting bullpen arm. As a bonus, the Reno, Nevada native only turns 21 a few days after this is set to go out. He signed for $450,000, which was about $104,300 below slot.
5-135: RHP Will Klein, Eastern Illinois (unranked)
While Christian Chamberlain is a 5'10" lefty, Will Klein is the exact opposite as a huge 6'5" righty. Klein grew up just down the street from Indiana University in Bloomington, but headed across the state line to Eastern Illinois for college. As you might expect, he's a power arm with a huge fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's as a starter and can touch 99 in relief, and his power breaking ball is an above average pitch as well. However, even though his changeup and command took steps forward in 2020, they both need further work to be workable in pro ball. He's a decent starting pitching prospect that could work his way into a #4-ish role with further refinement, but we already know how it plays in the bullpen (better) and this system has a ton of starting pitching anyways. The stuff goes from solid to very good in the bullpen and he doesn't have to worry about his changeup, which lets him get away with that fringy command a bit more. Klein signed for $200,000, which was $214,000 below slot value.
Undrafted: C Kale Emshoff, Arkansas-Little Rock (my rank: 150)
The Royals really cleaned up in the undrafted free agent market, and they were the only team to sign a player who cracked rankings. Kale Emshoff also gives them a second Corpus Christi native in this draft cycle, joining Baylor's Nick Loftin, though Emshoff headed out of state to catch for UALR. He didn't hit much as a freshman in 2017 and was solid in 2018, but he missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery. Returning as a redshirt junior in 2020, he got off to a white hot start, slashing .417/.527/.800 with seven home runs and an 11/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games. He produces a plus power from a 6'2" frame that he got to with incredible ease in 2020, and he proved it against advanced pitching with a home run off Cardinals draftee Ian Bedell in the fall. He's worked to cut down the swing and miss in his game and better control the zone, which was apparent in 2020, and even though he turned 22 in May, it's coming together as quite the offensive package. The fact that he can stick at catcher makes the bat look a lot more valuable, and though he's a so-so defender overall, he should be able to stick back there with a little refinement. The ultimate projection is that of a bat-first backup catcher who you can slot into the lineup without sacrificing much offense, with the chance to hit his way into a starting role if he continues the hot hitting we saw this spring. For just $20,000 in the undrafted free agent market, this is a huge win for the Kansas City organization.
Undrafted: OF Tucker Bradley, Georgia (unranked)
Chickamauga, Georgia isn't the world's largest city as an outer suburb of Chattanooga, but it produced two of the Georgia Bulldogs' top players this year in Padres over slot third rounder Cole Wilcox and Royals signee Tucker Bradley. Bradley hit .303/.359/.360 with three home runs over his first two-plus seasons with the Bulldogs, though he missed most of his junior season with a shoulder injury and returned as a redshirt junior this year. Much like Emshoff, he returned from that injury in a big way, slashing .393/.525/.738 with six home runs and a 3/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the shortened season, and while it was a pretty weak schedule overall, he did go 5-14 with two home runs in a weekend series against Georgia Tech. He's been much more of a line drive hitter throughout his career in Athens, but he started tapping into some real power in 2020 while maintaining excellent plate discipline. Given that he's an ordinary defender in the outfield who could be decent in right field or solid average in left field, the bat will have to carry him, but scouts have long loved his ability to find ways to impact the game. He's a high baseball-IQ player who does the little things right, and that baseball karma seemed to manifest itself with the increased impact he showed in 2020. It's probably a bit optimistic to project him as a full time player, but he has the all-around bat to profile as a solid fourth outfield type. Another good find in the UDFA market.
Undrafted: C Saul Garza, Louisiana State (unranked)
Garza grew up in the Rio Grande Valley in the southern tip of Texas, then raked at Howard CC before transferring to LSU in 2019. He put up a strong first season in Baton Rouge with a .303/.358/.476 line and five home runs, but ran into some bad BABIP luck with a .229/.321/.479 with three home runs to start the 2020 season. He generates solid raw power from a quick right handed swing, power which he still got to even as his numbers dipped a little in 2020. A decent defender, he should be able to stick behind the plate and that certainly helps his bat profile a little better, but his bat will have to push him past other catchers within the system because his glove won't. It's an interesting backup catcher profile, especially if he continues to tap power in pro ball. Like most of the other undrafted free agents the Royals picked up, he's already 22.
Undrafted: RHP John McMillon, Texas Tech (unranked)
McMillon is yet another Texan to go with Lacy, Loftin, Emshoff, and Garza, growing up in Jasper and heading 500 miles across the state to Texas Tech. Holding a career 3.41 ERA and a 189/110 strikeout to walk ratio over 145.1 career innings, he has very clear strengths and weaknesses. The 6'3" righty can get up to triple digits with his explosive fastball, and his slider has nice hard, downward bite that routinely misses bats. However, there is a lot of rocking around and back and forth weight transfer in his delivery that makes it hard for him to stay on line to the plate, giving him well below average command. For that reason, he's almost certainly a reliever at the next level, a role he has a lot of experience in at Texas Tech anyways. If the Royals can calm down his delivery a little bit and get his command closer to average, the power fastball/slider combination will play really well late in games.
LHP A.J. Block, Washington State: 2-1, 3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 34/5 K/BB in 27.2 IP
1B Matt Schmidt, Michigan: 1 HR, .212/.333/.364, 0 SB, 17/6 K/BB in 12 games
RHP Chase Wallace, Tennessee: 1-1, 3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18/7 K/BB in 18 IP
Showing posts with label Asa Lacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asa Lacy. Show all posts
Friday, July 17, 2020
Friday, June 5, 2020
Spencer Torkelson vs Austin Martin: The 1-1 Discussion
Last year, the Orioles gave some thought to players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Andrew Vaughn, but for the most part, it was a forgone conclusion that they would select Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall, and they did. In 2020, while Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has emerged as the clear frontrunner, Vanderbilt infielder/outfielder Austin Martin remains very much in the conversation, and it's certainly an interesting one. You have two players who are similar enough to cleanly compare as fellow college position players, but different enough to contrast as guys with very different skill sets. With that, let's dive into what the thought process between these two could look like for the Tigers.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
Monday, March 16, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Asa Lacy
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/2/1999
2020 Stats: 3-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP
First off, I have to start with a quick brag. In 2017, I put a star next to then-high schooler Asa Lacy's name in my draft list to denote him as a "favorite" compared to other players in the draft class. His ranking of #78 on my list might seem modest, but MLB Pipeline had him at #124 and Baseball America had him at #176, so I'm going to call that a big success for me. Of course, there were other players on that list marked as favorites that I'm less proud of, such as Alex Lange and Jordan Spicer, but I'd like to revel in this one.
Okay, now to talk about Lacy himself. There's a stereotype about big Texas pitchers, and Lacy fits it to a T. Hailing from the small Hill Country town of Kerrville, also home to Johnny Manziel, Lacy is listed at 6'4", 215 pounds and looks every bit of it. He significantly elevated his draft stock with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough SEC schedule as a sophomore in 2019, then looked even sharper through four starts in 2020 with a 0.75 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 46/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 24 innings against four pretty good lineups, as far as non-conference slates go. He struck out 14 against Army on February 21st and 13 against New Mexico State on March 6th, including likely top five pick Nick Gonzales.
There's no question about, well, most of Lacy's profile. He's an imposing presence on the mound not only due to his size, but due to his competitiveness and go-right-after-you style of pitching. Of course, he backs it up with excellent stuff, including a mid 90's fastball, a great curve, a slider, and a good changeup. He's not shy about challenging hitters with all of his pitches, and with the fastball and curveball especially being downright unfair when he locates and sequences them well. It's a true front-of-the-rotation four pitch mix, and with his competitiveness and big, durable frame, he has what it takes to become a big league ace.
There's one piece of Lacy's profile that doesn't get resounding plus grades from scouts, and that's command. He doesn't have the same impeccable history of strike throwing that other high-end college starters like Emerson Hancock and Reid Detmers possess, though fortunately, he's very much trending in the right direction. He dropped his walk rate from 20.2% in 2019 to 11.4% in 2020, and even if it would have jumped back up to around 14% or 15% once he started facing all those SEC lineups, he took a tangible step forward in that regard. Entering the season, the command looked slightly below average, though now it looks to be a bit above average and it makes him a fully complete profile.
The ultimate ceiling here is true ace, of course. Lacy has the best four pitch mix in amateur baseball, and it's all coming from a durable, 6'4" frame and a pitcher with all the intangibles needed for success. The command was originally the one slight qualm in Lacy's profile, but he's already making us forget that question and it gets 50 or even 55 grades from evaluators. Though he entered the season right behind Emerson Hancock, he's flipped the script and he's safely ahead now. As for a draft projection, I think he does have a slight shot at going first or second overall, but most of the industry sees him pretty locked in at #3 to the Marlins.
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/2/1999
2020 Stats: 3-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP
First off, I have to start with a quick brag. In 2017, I put a star next to then-high schooler Asa Lacy's name in my draft list to denote him as a "favorite" compared to other players in the draft class. His ranking of #78 on my list might seem modest, but MLB Pipeline had him at #124 and Baseball America had him at #176, so I'm going to call that a big success for me. Of course, there were other players on that list marked as favorites that I'm less proud of, such as Alex Lange and Jordan Spicer, but I'd like to revel in this one.
Okay, now to talk about Lacy himself. There's a stereotype about big Texas pitchers, and Lacy fits it to a T. Hailing from the small Hill Country town of Kerrville, also home to Johnny Manziel, Lacy is listed at 6'4", 215 pounds and looks every bit of it. He significantly elevated his draft stock with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough SEC schedule as a sophomore in 2019, then looked even sharper through four starts in 2020 with a 0.75 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 46/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 24 innings against four pretty good lineups, as far as non-conference slates go. He struck out 14 against Army on February 21st and 13 against New Mexico State on March 6th, including likely top five pick Nick Gonzales.
There's no question about, well, most of Lacy's profile. He's an imposing presence on the mound not only due to his size, but due to his competitiveness and go-right-after-you style of pitching. Of course, he backs it up with excellent stuff, including a mid 90's fastball, a great curve, a slider, and a good changeup. He's not shy about challenging hitters with all of his pitches, and with the fastball and curveball especially being downright unfair when he locates and sequences them well. It's a true front-of-the-rotation four pitch mix, and with his competitiveness and big, durable frame, he has what it takes to become a big league ace.
There's one piece of Lacy's profile that doesn't get resounding plus grades from scouts, and that's command. He doesn't have the same impeccable history of strike throwing that other high-end college starters like Emerson Hancock and Reid Detmers possess, though fortunately, he's very much trending in the right direction. He dropped his walk rate from 20.2% in 2019 to 11.4% in 2020, and even if it would have jumped back up to around 14% or 15% once he started facing all those SEC lineups, he took a tangible step forward in that regard. Entering the season, the command looked slightly below average, though now it looks to be a bit above average and it makes him a fully complete profile.
The ultimate ceiling here is true ace, of course. Lacy has the best four pitch mix in amateur baseball, and it's all coming from a durable, 6'4" frame and a pitcher with all the intangibles needed for success. The command was originally the one slight qualm in Lacy's profile, but he's already making us forget that question and it gets 50 or even 55 grades from evaluators. Though he entered the season right behind Emerson Hancock, he's flipped the script and he's safely ahead now. As for a draft projection, I think he does have a slight shot at going first or second overall, but most of the industry sees him pretty locked in at #3 to the Marlins.
Monday, February 10, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Ten Prospects Who Could Go #1
The college baseball season is set to start on February 14th, while various high school leagues start around the same time. That means one thing for MLB fans – it's time to start thinking about the draft. The Detroit Tigers have the first overall pick for the second time in three seasons, two years after they selected right hander Casey Mize out of Auburn. I'm not big into the guessing game of who teams like or whether they might go under slot, but that being said, here are ten players that have a shot at hearing their name called first overall.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018
The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians
First 5 rounds: Quentin Holmes (2-64), Tyler Freeman (CBB-71), Johnathan Rodriguez (3-102), Ernie Clement (4-132), Austen Wade (5-162).
Also notable: Michael Rivera (6-192), Eli Morgan (8-252), James Karinchak (9-282), Asa Lacy (31-942)
The Indians lacked a first round pick this year, but they were still able to nab a potential first round talent in the second round. They continued their upside picks in the competitive balance round and third round, then went on a long run of safety picks. Because they had that extra competitive balance pick and they got a late-first round talent in the second round, this draft isn't as disappointing as it easily could have been for Indians fans.
2-64: CF Quentin Holmes (my rank: 36)
Assuming they can sign him, this is a great pick in the second round. Holmes is a high upside center fielder with true 80 grade speed, and his whole package of tools gives him Andrew McCutchen type upside. Holmes, out of McClancy HS in Queens, New York, has been lauded by scouts for his excellent makeup and work ethic, and he won't turn 18 until July, making him one of the younger players in the draft. Holmes swing needs some work, especially around the bat path, but he has quick hands and can already get some natural loft on the ball, so the building blocks are there. Combine that with his age and work ethic, and Holmes could be a five tool player in the major leagues.
CBB-71: SS Tyler Freeman (my rank: 114)
The Indians grabbed another high-upside, strong makeup player in the competitive balance round. Freeman is a high schooler from California, where he had an extremely strong spring despite largely average tools. He has a long, flat swing, similar to first rounder Evan White, which doesn't produce much power but can get him on base often. Scouts love his competitiveness and energy, and once his swing path is tweaked and his load is timed up better with his swing, he could grow into average power. He was supposedly going to be a tough sign away from TCU, but the Indians likely drafted him high enough to lure him away.
3-102: OF Johnathan Rodriguez (unranked)
A third straight high-upside pick, Rodriguez comes from Puerto Rico, where Baseball America ranked him the island's fifth best prospect. He's raw and toolsy, and will be a project like Holmes and Freeman. Rodriguez pushes his hands very far back during his load, which could help him wait back on breaking pitches but could give him difficulty catching up to fastballs. With his strong arm and power potential, he'll fit in well as a right fielder down the line.
4-132: 2B Ernie Clement (my rank: 117)
The Indians' fourth round pick has a very unique skillset. He has excellent bat to ball skills, striking out just 31 times (3.7% of his plate appearances) in his entire three year career at the University of Virginia. This year, he kicked it up yet another notch, striking out just seven times total (2.5%). Aside from his insane ability to put the bat on the ball, though, there's not much exciting about him. He has little to no power because of his small frame and his slap style of hitting, doesn't walk much (career high 4.6% in 2017), and will be an average second baseman. He did slash .353/.400/.395 in the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out in just 5.6% of his plate appearances. Clement has a high floor of a quadruple-A journeyman, but he likely will never be an MLB starter. I gave him a Jason Tyner offensive ceiling without the speed.
31-942: LHP Asa Lacy (my rank: 78)
There is essentially a 0% chance that Lacy signs as a 31st round pick, but let's look at this pick just in case a miracle happens. I'm the high guy on Lacy, a left handed pitcher out of a high school in central Texas. The 6'4" lefty has a solid combination of floor and ceiling, as he already possesses advanced command of a full arsenal from a projectable frame. His fastball rarely bumps higher than 91, but it's easy to see him pushing his velocity into the low or even low to mid 90's in time, and he has one of the better changeups in the class. Lacy's curveball needs work, but it shows promise. Ultimately, he could come out of Texas A&M in three years as a first round pick.
Others: 5th rounder Austen Wade had a breakout year for TCU this year, slashing .333/.448/.491 with five home runs, and 15 stolen bases over 60 games so far. He has always shown an extremely advanced approach at the plate, walking in 19.6% of his plate appearances for his career, though he has also struck out in 16%. Unfortunately, he has no carrying tools and is likely a fourth outfielder down the road. 6th rounder Mike Rivera gives the Indians a third straight player who projects as an MLB backup, as he stands just 5'10" and slashed just .241/.344/.346 at Florida this year, but he is an excellent defender and works with pitchers well. 8th rounder Eli Morgan had an excellent career as a starter for Gonzaga (21-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but he'll likely end up a reliever due to his below average fastball and curveball. His carrying pitch is easily his excellent changeup, and he had strong enough results on the Cape, where he was mostly a reliever (4.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22/5 K/BB) to make it as a bullpen arm in the pros. 9th rounder James Karinchak had an excellent sophomore season for Bryant University (12-3, 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), albeit in a weak Northeastern Conference, but injuries slowed down his junior campaign this year (6-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). When healthy, he projects as a future MLB starter, but the up-and-down junior year, combined with a funky delivery, makes many scouts project him as a reliever. He has difficulty repeating his arm slot when he's not at his best, but this is a very intriguing high-risk, high-upside college pick in the ninth round.
Also notable: Michael Rivera (6-192), Eli Morgan (8-252), James Karinchak (9-282), Asa Lacy (31-942)
The Indians lacked a first round pick this year, but they were still able to nab a potential first round talent in the second round. They continued their upside picks in the competitive balance round and third round, then went on a long run of safety picks. Because they had that extra competitive balance pick and they got a late-first round talent in the second round, this draft isn't as disappointing as it easily could have been for Indians fans.
2-64: CF Quentin Holmes (my rank: 36)
Assuming they can sign him, this is a great pick in the second round. Holmes is a high upside center fielder with true 80 grade speed, and his whole package of tools gives him Andrew McCutchen type upside. Holmes, out of McClancy HS in Queens, New York, has been lauded by scouts for his excellent makeup and work ethic, and he won't turn 18 until July, making him one of the younger players in the draft. Holmes swing needs some work, especially around the bat path, but he has quick hands and can already get some natural loft on the ball, so the building blocks are there. Combine that with his age and work ethic, and Holmes could be a five tool player in the major leagues.
CBB-71: SS Tyler Freeman (my rank: 114)
The Indians grabbed another high-upside, strong makeup player in the competitive balance round. Freeman is a high schooler from California, where he had an extremely strong spring despite largely average tools. He has a long, flat swing, similar to first rounder Evan White, which doesn't produce much power but can get him on base often. Scouts love his competitiveness and energy, and once his swing path is tweaked and his load is timed up better with his swing, he could grow into average power. He was supposedly going to be a tough sign away from TCU, but the Indians likely drafted him high enough to lure him away.
3-102: OF Johnathan Rodriguez (unranked)
A third straight high-upside pick, Rodriguez comes from Puerto Rico, where Baseball America ranked him the island's fifth best prospect. He's raw and toolsy, and will be a project like Holmes and Freeman. Rodriguez pushes his hands very far back during his load, which could help him wait back on breaking pitches but could give him difficulty catching up to fastballs. With his strong arm and power potential, he'll fit in well as a right fielder down the line.
4-132: 2B Ernie Clement (my rank: 117)
The Indians' fourth round pick has a very unique skillset. He has excellent bat to ball skills, striking out just 31 times (3.7% of his plate appearances) in his entire three year career at the University of Virginia. This year, he kicked it up yet another notch, striking out just seven times total (2.5%). Aside from his insane ability to put the bat on the ball, though, there's not much exciting about him. He has little to no power because of his small frame and his slap style of hitting, doesn't walk much (career high 4.6% in 2017), and will be an average second baseman. He did slash .353/.400/.395 in the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out in just 5.6% of his plate appearances. Clement has a high floor of a quadruple-A journeyman, but he likely will never be an MLB starter. I gave him a Jason Tyner offensive ceiling without the speed.
31-942: LHP Asa Lacy (my rank: 78)
There is essentially a 0% chance that Lacy signs as a 31st round pick, but let's look at this pick just in case a miracle happens. I'm the high guy on Lacy, a left handed pitcher out of a high school in central Texas. The 6'4" lefty has a solid combination of floor and ceiling, as he already possesses advanced command of a full arsenal from a projectable frame. His fastball rarely bumps higher than 91, but it's easy to see him pushing his velocity into the low or even low to mid 90's in time, and he has one of the better changeups in the class. Lacy's curveball needs work, but it shows promise. Ultimately, he could come out of Texas A&M in three years as a first round pick.
Others: 5th rounder Austen Wade had a breakout year for TCU this year, slashing .333/.448/.491 with five home runs, and 15 stolen bases over 60 games so far. He has always shown an extremely advanced approach at the plate, walking in 19.6% of his plate appearances for his career, though he has also struck out in 16%. Unfortunately, he has no carrying tools and is likely a fourth outfielder down the road. 6th rounder Mike Rivera gives the Indians a third straight player who projects as an MLB backup, as he stands just 5'10" and slashed just .241/.344/.346 at Florida this year, but he is an excellent defender and works with pitchers well. 8th rounder Eli Morgan had an excellent career as a starter for Gonzaga (21-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but he'll likely end up a reliever due to his below average fastball and curveball. His carrying pitch is easily his excellent changeup, and he had strong enough results on the Cape, where he was mostly a reliever (4.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22/5 K/BB) to make it as a bullpen arm in the pros. 9th rounder James Karinchak had an excellent sophomore season for Bryant University (12-3, 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), albeit in a weak Northeastern Conference, but injuries slowed down his junior campaign this year (6-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). When healthy, he projects as a future MLB starter, but the up-and-down junior year, combined with a funky delivery, makes many scouts project him as a reliever. He has difficulty repeating his arm slot when he's not at his best, but this is a very intriguing high-risk, high-upside college pick in the ninth round.
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