Last year, the Orioles gave some thought to players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Andrew Vaughn, but for the most part, it was a forgone conclusion that they would select Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall, and they did. In 2020, while Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has emerged as the clear frontrunner, Vanderbilt infielder/outfielder Austin Martin remains very much in the conversation, and it's certainly an interesting one. You have two players who are similar enough to cleanly compare as fellow college position players, but different enough to contrast as guys with very different skill sets. With that, let's dive into what the thought process between these two could look like for the Tigers.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
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