1-21: 3B Jordan Walker, Decatur HS (GA)
2-54: SS/RHP Masyn Winn, Kingwood HS (TX)
CBB-63: RHP Tink Hence, Watson Chapel HS (AR)
2C-70: OF Alec Burleson, East Carolina
3-93: LHP Levi Prater, Oklahoma
4-122: RHP Ian Bedell, Missouri
5-152: OF LJ Jones IV, Long Beach State
I'm usually a fan of the Cardinals' draft strategy, and this year was no different after they pulled in a really impressive class. They started with three high schoolers early (including two Arkansas signees), all of whom bring great upside and one of whom, Masyn Winn, will be deployed as a two way player. After that, they pivoted to two under slot college players that don't seem like the most exciting picks, before jumping back to go over slot on Missouri's Ian Bedell. Lastly, LJ Jones could be a real hidden gem in this draft class, and he's one of my sleepers to watch going forward. Youth relative to class was a theme here, as six out of seven have March birthdays or later. Lastly, the Cardinals stayed relatively close to home for much of the draft, picking up Tink Hence from Pine Bluff, Arkansas (less than six hours south of St. Louis), Levi Prater from Byng, Oklahoma (less than eight hours southwest of St. Louis), and Ian Bedell from Davenport, Iowa (four hours north of St. Louis, an avid Cardinals fan, and a Mizzou product).
Full index of team reviews here.
1-21: 3B Jordan Walker, Decatur HS, GA (my rank: 30)
The Metro Atlanta high school ranks didn't come with the same depth of talent they usually do this year, but the clear top player in the area was Decatur's Jordan Walker. He's a big, 6'5" slugger that possesses some of the best raw power in the high school class, using his long arms and impressive strength to drive baseballs deep to all fields. He's not just about the power, though, as his high baseball IQ and strong plate discipline enables him to tap that power consistently in games. That was especially so this spring, when he came out of the gate hot and gave scouts confidence he would continue to tap his power in pro ball. While his ability to make contact remains a bit behind his plate discipline, his strength in the latter should enable the former to improve as he grows into his body and tightens up his right handed swing a little bit. That gives him 30+ home run potential in addition to good on-base percentages, a true lineup anchor if everything comes together. His mature approach to the game enables him to play a very solid third base, as does his strong arm, though there are questions about his ability to stick there as more and more is demanded out of practitioners of the hot corner in the age of shifting. A move to first base or a corner outfield spot would put more pressure on his bat, but if he reaches his ceiling, the bat will play anywhere. This is a really fun name to track that's been trending up, and he could remind some Cardinals fans of a right handed Nolan Gorman. Like Gorman, his May birthday makes him slightly younger than the typical high school senior, giving him a little more time to develop. Jordan Walker also has to be a great baseball name, right? He signed away from a Duke commitment for $2.9 million, which saved about $230,000 off of slot value for the Cardinals. Pre-draft profile here.
2-54: SS/RHP Masyn Winn, Kingwood HS, TX (my rank: 29)
This has to be one of the most interesting picks of the draft, and I'm a big fan of it. The Cardinals plucked Masyn Winn out of high school in the Houston area, and they're going to play him two ways in the minors. I'm all for it, as Winn is a special baseball player despite being a bit undersized at 5'11". He has lightning fast hands that work really well on both sides of the ball, and he has star potential for both. Starting with the bat, Winn shows some real power potential despite his smaller frame, generating good raw power from a projectable swing. Though there is a lot of movement in the swing pre-pitch, he finds himself in a low setup before the pitch that puts him in a good position to fling the bat head through the zone with a bit of an uppercut. He has shown some swing and miss, but given how quick his hands are, I think bringing that back a little bit and quieting down the pre-pitch movement could make him an above average hitter. The ceiling there seems to be about 20-25 home runs and decent on-base percentages, with his above average speed helping as well. He's raw, but he is talented enough to stick at shortstop with a bit of extra refinement. I prefer him as a pitcher anyways, where he fires mid 90's fastballs that top out at 98 from an exceptionally quick arm. He also adds an inconsistent curveball and changeup, but the curve looks like a true plus pitch when it's on and he can flash some very good changeups as well. A solid strike thrower, further refinement could make him an undersized impact starting pitcher if he can prove his durability. I honestly doubt that he ends up playing both ways in the majors, just given how much refinement both sides of his game need in addition to his smaller size, but I think the Cardinals are very excited to just push him out there in the minors and see what happens, which emerges as the better side of his game. Committed to Arkansas, he instead signed with the Cardinals for $2.1 million, about $660,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-63: RHP Tink Hence, Watson Chapel HS, AR (my rank: 81)
As someone who grew up in Virginia, I'm not entirely sure how Arkansas is divided up between Cardinals, Royals, and Rangers Country (maybe Astros and Braves as well?), and Hence's hometown of Pine Bluff is roughly equidistant to the Rangers' and Cardinals' stadiums. So is this a "hometown" pick for the Cardinals? At less than a six hour drive from Busch Stadium, I'll just go with yes. Anyways, you might have seen Tink Hence listed under the first name Markevian leading up to the draft, but whatever you call him, he's an interesting arm. Hence sits in the low 90's with his fastball but he's run it as high as 96 and the velocity is trending up, and he adds in a potentially plus curveball with really tight spin and sharp bite. He can manipulate the breaking ball into more of a slider, one which also shows sharp bite and plus potential. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, but having two breaking balls makes up for that at least a little bit given his age, and he's a pretty decent strike thrower. Like with Winn, there are questions about his frame, as he's very skinny at 6'1" and doesn't seem to have much room to fill out. That said, he has a very fast arm (also like Winn) and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, and scouts love the direction he's trending in. With an August birthday that makes him young for a high school senior, he gets another plus. If Hence can hold up under a starter's workload, the Cardinals could have an impact arm here, but there is significant risk just due to the size and high school right hander demographic. Again like Winn, he was committed to Arkansas, but he signed for $1.15 million, or $70,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-70: OF Alec Burleson, East Carolina (unranked)
I was aware of Burleson before the draft, but he just missed my top 160 because I wasn't quite sold enough on the bat given his lack of defensive value. He lands at pick number 70 with the Cardinals, compensation for losing Marcell Ozuna to the Braves. Another two-way player like Winn, he figures to go back to one way in pro ball, after putting up a great offensive track record at ECU. Since the start of 2019, he's hit .371/.408/.568 with 12 home runs and a 27/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games for the Pirates, picking up base hits as consistently as anybody. He has a line drive bat and elite bat to ball skills that enable him to make hard contact in almost every at bat, and he struck out just 40 times in 130 career games for ECU. In fact, he makes such easy contact that he rarely works the count deep enough to draw walks, drawing just 33 over the same span. Now, it's unclear how much power he profiles for in pro ball, as he's hit just 12 home runs in those 130 games and was limited to a .148/.250/.222 line in a short, eight game Cape Cod League sample. He didn't strike out much, just three times in those eight games, but he didn't hit for a ton of authority with wood bats. Once he gives up pitching, he can probably profile for close to average power, perhaps 15-20 home runs per season if we're lucky, but the pressure will be on his bat because he's a mediocre defender. He's pretty slow and doesn't cover a ton of ground in the outfield, and while he does look like he could be above average defensively at first base, the pressure on his bat will be even higher there. I see Burleson more as a bench bat than as a future regular, but I wouldn't bet against a guy who finds the barrel as consistently as he does. He signed for $700,000, which was $206,800 below slot and just about paid for Walker's over slot bonus.
3-93: LHP Levi Prater, Oklahoma (unranked)
Prater was another guy who just missed my rankings, but he's easy to get behind and root for. Hailing from the small town of Byng, Oklahoma, Prater lost three fingers on his right hand to a lawnmower accident as a toddler, so he just throws with his left. He's a bulldog competitor on the mound that gets the absolute most out of what's an otherwise average arsenal; his fastball sits close to 90, topping out at 94, while his slider does a good job of keeping hitters off his fastball but doesn't miss a ton of bats, and his changeup is solid. He's a decent strike thrower but doesn't have the pinpoint command necessary to survive at lower velocities in the majors, and at six feet tall, he doesn't project to add a ton of velocity. That's why the competitiveness and intangibles are the key here, and the Cardinals hope that Prater will simply outwork his competition and sharpen up his stuff. He's relatively young for the class and only turned 21 a week before I published this review, helping his profile out a little bit. Overall, he looks like a #4/#5 starter if he can sharpen up either his stuff or his command just a little bit, or he could be a middle reliever if not. He signed for $575,000, which was $52,900 below slot value.
4-122: RHP Ian Bedell, Missouri (my rank: 100)
Bedell was the player to crack my top 100 and therefore the last player to receive a full pre-draft writeup (my public rankings went up to 125 and I'm including ranks up to 160 in the "my rank" section). I pondered a bit over Hence's status as a hometown player, but while Bedell isn't from Missouri, he has a clearer case. Growing up in Davenport, Iowa, about 250 miles upriver from St. Louis on the Mississippi, Bedell is a lifelong Cardinals fan and spent three years pitching for the Missouri Tigers. Davenport is less than three hours west of Chicago and four hours north of St. Louis, but if he grew up a Cardinals fan and pitched at Mizzou, he's earned the hometown label. Anyways, Bedell has had a highly successful career in Columbia following in the footsteps of guys like Tanner Houck, Michael Plassmeyer, and TJ Sikkema, highlighted by a 1.56 ERA over 40.1 innings as a long reliever in 2019. Bedell also dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer, posting a 2.31 ERA in 35 innings, giving plenty of track record for the Cardinals to lean on. He typically works in the low 90's with his fastball, though as a starter this spring, he was sitting closer to 90 and that caused him to slip a little bit. He adds in an above average curveball that could project as a true plus pitch if he adds a little depth, and he throws a slider and changeup as well that are improving and round out his arsenal really well. While he doesn't have any plus stuff, he commands his pitches well and controls the strike zone even better, holding a 75/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings between the Cape and his shortened 2020 season. He's very young for a college junior in that he won't turn 21 until September, giving him more time to fill out his 6'2" frame and hopefully add a tick of velocity to stay in the rotation. He signed for $800,000, which was $331,000 above slot and higher than both Burleson and Prater's bonuses. Pre-draft profile here.
5-152: OF LJ Jones IV, Long Beach State (unranked)
Here's a really interesting sleeper for you. A product of the same Eastlake High School in the San Diego area that gave us Adrian Gonzalez, 2019 Twins first rounder Keoni Cavaco, and 2020 Giants second rounder Casey Schmitt (via San Diego State), LJ Jones has been a steady performer at Long Beach State when healthy. He hit .312/.358/.408 as a freshman in 2018, missed almost all of the 2019 season when Florida's Jack Leftwich hit him on the hand with a pitch, and returned to hit .327/.377/.509 with two home runs and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the shortened 2020 season. With a strong, somewhat stocky frame, he generates impressive bat speed from the right side of the plate with great leverage. While he hasn't had much of a chance to tap his power at Long Beach State, he has shown the ability to make very consistent contact and I think as he gets more games under his belt, the power will come too. He's going to have to hit, because he's probably limited to left field defensively, but I really like the bat in the fifth round and I think he could hit for both power and average at the major league level. Watch this one. Jones signed for $100,000, which was $250,300 below slot.
Undrafted: RHP Gianluca Dalatri, North Carolina (unranked)
With one of the cooler names in college baseball, Gianluca Dalatri put together a strong and high profile track record at UNC, posting a 3.12 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 151/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings for the Tar Heels. However, the problem is that he hasn't pitched since early in the 2019 season, as various injuries have nagged him throughout his career – his only full season came in 2017, his freshman year, and he's only thrown 59 innings sine the start of 2018. The stuff is average, as he sits in the upper 80's with his fastball and adds an average curveball and changeup, but he commands it all extremely well and gets good extension in his 6'6" frame. It appears that it should be a durable frame, but given his injury history, that hasn't been the case. The Cardinals will try to develop him as a potential #5 starter or long relief type, but it's noteworthy to get that kind of a college performer on the staff.
Undrafted: RHP Nick Trogrlic-Iverson, Gonzaga (unranked)
Trogrlic-Iverson is pretty well travelled, heading from the Toronto-area high school ranks to Central Arizona College in the desert between Phoenix and Tucson for two years before heading up to Gonzaga in Washington state. He was off to a strong start to his senior year in 2020, striking out 20 while walking just three in 21.1 innings with a 3.80 ERA along the way. Trogrlic-Iverson throws a fastball in the low 90's in addition to a full set of secondary pitches, probably headlined by a solid slider and changeup. Standing 6'1" with a little bit of funky long arm action, he might fit better in the bullpen, where the velocity could tick up and he could focus on one or two secondary pitches. He's a good strike thrower who could move quickly in that relief role and make an impact sooner rather than later.
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