Wednesday, June 10, 2020

2020 Draft: Tool by Tool, Pitchers

I published the hitters earlier today, now onto the pitchers:

Fastball
Best of the best: Luke Little (San Jacinto JC, TX), Joe Boyle (Notre Dame), Max Meyer (Minnesota), Bobby Miller (Louisville), Justin Lange (Llano HS, TX)

It really speaks to the depth of this class that guys like Jared Kelley (effortless mid to upper 90's) and Garrett Crochet (who can hit 100 from the left side) couldn't crack this list. We'll start with Luke Little, who famously touched 105 in a bullpen and can sit in the upper 90's from the left side. Not only does he bring top of the scale velocity, but his massive 6'8" frame and crossfire delivery put tremendous action on the pitch that makes it difficult to square up even if you can time it up. Similarly, Joe Boyle can run his fastball up over 100 in relief without much effort, though his is straighter than Little's. However, neither he nor Little can command their fastballs much at all. Similarly, Justin Lange can get up over 100 but might not hit the strike zone, but there is much more room for optimism here because he's more than a year younger than Little and more than two years younger than Boyle. Also similar to Boyle, he doesn't throw with a ton of effort, and scouts can only dream on what will happen once he gets ironed out by pro coaching. Max Meyer might be a lot smaller than the other guys on this list, but he can crank his fastball up to triple digits. Additionally, what sets him apart is his ability to hold that velocity deep into games, still blowing that fastball by hitters in the eighth and ninth innings of his starts. Also unlike the previous three, he can actually throw it for strikes. Bobby Miller's upper 90's fastball has some of the best movement in the class, with hard sinking and running action that make it nearly impossible to square up even if you can time it up. That's very similar to a sentence I wrote on Little's fastball, but Miller's command took a step forward in 2020, setting him apart.

Curveball
Best of the best: Reid Detmers (Louisville), Cade Cavalli (Oklahoma), Seth Lonsway (Ohio State), Dax Fulton (Mustang HS, OK), Zach McCambley (Coastal Carolina)

Again, the quality of the names left off this list, like Asa Lacy, Nick Bitsko, Nick Swiney, Clayton Beeter, and CJ Van Eyk, speak to the depth of pitching in this class. Reid Detmers is known around the game for his big, slow curve that he can locate wherever he wants, coming in with huge depth and sharp, two-plane shape to make hitters' eyes cover a ton of ground as it drops in. Cade Cavalli shows more power in his curve, with sharp, late tumbling action that can surprise hitters because there isn't much hump on the ball coming out of his hand. Seth Lonsway's curveball is another power hammer that comes straight down over the top and sends hitters golfing. Dax Fulton is more like Detmers in that his curve stands out for its tremendous vertical break, and as the only high schooler on this list, his upside with the pitch is great. Down at Coastal Carolina, Zach McCambley's curve shows some of the best two-plane depth in the class, sometimes breaking so much that even he has a hard time commanding it. It cuts both down and across the plate, all late, so when he locates it, very few hitters are squaring it up.

Slider
Best of the best: Max Meyer (Minnesota), Mick Abel (Jesuit HS, OR), Asa Lacy (Texas A&M), Joe Boyle (Notre Dame), LHP Kyle Harrison (De La Salle HS, CA)

If you like sliders, 2020 will be a great draft for you. Max Meyer's slider is even better than his list-cracking fastball, combining elite velocity in the low 90's with sharp break. Basically, imagine a knee-high major league fastball at 92, except that it dives hard to the pitcher's glove side at the last second and ends up in the dirt. Sound impossible to hit? It is, and it's a big reason why Meyer will go well within the top ten picks. Mick Abel brings the best slider in the high school class, a mid 80's pitch that doesn't break until the last second and which he can tunnel extremely well off his fastball. Asa Lacy's slider gets lost sometimes because his entire arsenal is plus, but this pitch is very dangerous and can touch 90 miles per hour with hard, late bite coming across the plate or boring in on right handers. Joe Boyle is another guy with a slider that hits the upper 80's, with his out pitch standing out for short, sharp bite that plays extremely well in its velocity band. However, his ability to hit his spots with it is well behind the other arms on this list. Kyle Harrison is more of a projection play than the other four, as is slider currently doesn't have big velocity in the upper 70's, but it has tremendous shape and some of the best depth of any slider in the class. Prep hitters are completely fooled by its movement, and once he tightens it up, it could be a double plus pitch.

Changeup
Best of the best: Ben Hernandez (De La Salle HS, IL), Jared Shuster (Wake Forest), Emerson Hancock (Georgia), Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX), Ian Seymour (Virginia Tech)

This is another list where we left off some really great changeups from guys like Logan Allen, Asa Lacy, Garrett Crochet, and Bryce Jarvis. Ben Hernandez is very much the "changeup guy" in this draft because it's far and away his best pitch, arguably the best in the entire class with tremendous fade that never seems to let up. Jared Shuster's changeup is another beauty, looking just like his fastball and giving the illusion that it actually slows down in mid air, just kind of gently falling off to the side while hitters flail at it way out in front. Emerson Hancock's changeup plays best off his ability to tunnel it off his other pitches, with deep arm side fade that sends hitters searching around their ankles trying to find it. Jared Kelley, like Hancock, lives off his ability to tunnel his changeup off his upper 90's fastball, as he can put the two right in the same air space before letting it pull to the side and leave hitters coming up with nothing but air. Ian Seymour's changeup has missed tons of bats at all levels, fading a ton to the arm side and playing way up due to his funky delivery. Perhaps more so than any other pitcher on this list, it's incredibly difficult to track Seymour's changeup from his hand to the plate.

Command
Best of the best: Reid Detmers (Louisville), Emerson Hancock (Georgia), Mick Abel (Jesuit HS, OR), Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX), Landon Knack (East Tennessee State)

This is the second straight list where Logan Allen just missed, again speaking more to the depth of talent in this class than to any of his own shortcomings. Reid Detmers stands out for his ability not only to put his pitches right where he wants them, but is ability to take it a step forward and control the count from start to finish. Very few pitchers can make hitters chase out of the zone and freeze in the zone as consistently as Detmers. Emerson Hancock and Mick Abel are two more extremely polished strike throwers who can land all four of their pitches wherever they want them in the zone, with Hancock doing so despite upper 90's velocity and Abel doing so despite his youth and a devastating slider. Jared Kelley's command in part comes from the incredible ease of operation he shows, locating upper 90's velocity while looking like he's playing catch. Because he's not worried about reaching back for as much juice as possible, he can focus entirely on hitting his spots while trusting that the stuff will be there. Landon Knack is a really interesting one, a fifth year senior who put up an incredible 51/1 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings this year at East Tennessee State. That gives him just 31 walks, total, in four years and 220.2 career innings between ETSU and Walters State Community College. It's an exceptional history of strike throwing that is now aided by a big uptick in his stuff.

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