As you might expect, California, Texas, and Florida tend to produce, far and away, the most draft talent. That's a direct product of being a) warm climates and b) highly populous, but the dense clusters of prospects further allow for these kids to get increased exposure they might not have gotten in New Mexico or Wisconsin. In 2020, with the shortened season and many northern high school leagues never even playing a game, these three states have further stepped out into the lead more so than in years past.
I put together prospect all star teams for each state, based on where the player went to high school, not college. So by those rules, Miami starter Chris McMahon is not eligible for the Florida team because he is from Pennsylvania, but Vanderbilt star Austin Martin is because he grew up in Jacksonville. I mostly put this together because it was fun for me, and I hope you enjoy it too.
California
C: Tyler Soderstrom, Turlock HS (hometown: Turlock)
1B: Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State (hometown: Petaluma)
2B: Nick Yorke, Archbishop Mitty HS (hometown: San Jose)
SS: Alika Williams, Arizona State (hometown: San Diego)
3B: Casey Schmitt, San Diego State (hometown: Chula Vista)
LF: Isaiah Greene, Corona HS (hometown: Corona)
CF: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS (hometown: Los Angeles)
RF: Garrett Mitchell, UCLA (hometown: Orange)
DH: Kevin Parada, Loyola HS (hometown: Los Angeles)
SP: Jared Jones, La Mirada HS (hometown: Whittier)
SP: Nick Garcia, Chapman (hometown: San Carlos)
SP: Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS (hometown: Paso Robles)
SP: Kyle Harrison, De La Salle HS (hometown: Concord)
SP: Adam Seminaris, Long Beach State (hometown: Chino Hills)
RHR: Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount (hometown: Rancho Palos Verdes)
RHR: Trenton Denholm, UC Irvine (hometown: El Dorado Hills)
LHR: Ricky Tiedemann, Lakewood HS (hometown: Lakewood)
Just missed: OF Chase Davis (Elk Grove), OF Petey Halpin (Mountain View), OF Jake Vogel (Huntington Beach), SS Milan Tolentino (Rancho Santa Margarita), RHP Carson Seymour (Temecula), RHP Holden Powell (Visalia), RHP Kyle Hurt (San Diego), RHP TJ Nichols (Roseville)
Texas
C: Drew Romo, The Woodlands HS (hometown: The Woodlands)
1B: Trei Cruz, Rice (hometown: Houston)
2B: Masyn Winn, Kingwood HS (hometown: Kingwood)
SS: Nick Loftin, Baylor (hometown: Corpus Christi)
3B: Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State (hometown: New Braunfels)
LF: Zach DeLoach, Texas A&M (hometown: Carrollton)
CF: Alerick Soularie, Tennessee (hometown: Atascocita)
RF: Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas (hometown: Amarillo)
DH: Jimmy Glowenke, Dallas Baptist (hometown: Lewisville)
SP: Asa Lacy, Texas A&M (hometown: Kerrville)
SP: Jared Kelley, Refugio HS (hometown: Refugio)
SP: Clayton Beeter, Texas Tech (hometown: Colleyville)
SP: Christian Roa, Texas A&M (hometown: Houston)
SP: Bryce Elder, Texas (hometown: Decatur)
RHR: Justin Lange, Llano HS (hometown: Llano)
RHR: Tanner Witt, Episcopal HS (hometown: Houston)
LHR: Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist (hometown: College Station)
Just missed: C Kale Emshoff (Robstown), SS Cole Foster (Plano), RHP Connor Phillips (Magnolia), RHP Bryce Bonnin (Mont Belvieu), RHP Brandon Birdsell (Willis), RHP Dane Acker (Brenham), RHP Cam Brown (Flower Mound)
Florida
C: Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS (hometown: New Port Richey)
1B: Yohandy Morales, Braddock HS (hometown: Miami)
2B: Anthony Servideo, Mississippi (hometown: Jupiter)
SS: Freddy Zamora, Miami (hometown: Miami)
3B: Austin Martin, Vanderbilt (hometown: Jacksonville)
LF: Dylan Crews, Lake Mary HS (hometown: Lake Mary)
CF: Enrique Bradfield, American Heritage HS (hometown: Fort Lauderdale)
RF: Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS (hometown: Port Orange)
DH: Coby Mayo, Stoneman Douglas HS (hometown: Parkland)
SP: Slade Cecconi, Miami (hometown: Oviedo)
SP: CJ Van Eyk, Florida State (hometown: Lutz)
SP: Logan Allen, Florida International (hometown: Deltona)
SP: Carson Montgomery, Windermere HS (hometown: Windermere)
SP: Tommy Mace, Florida (hometown: Land O'Lakes)
RHR: Victor Mederos, Westminster Christian HS (hometown: Miami)
RHR: Alejandro Rosario, Miami Christian HS (hometown: Miami)
LHR: Jake Eder, Vanderbilt (hometown: Delray Beach)
Just missed: SS Sammy Infante, SS Colby Halter (Jacksonville), OF AJ Shaver (Groveland), C Carlos Perez (Miami), LHP Mason Miller (New Port Richey), LHP Timmy Manning (Fort Lauderdale), RHP Jack Leftwich (Orlando), RHP TK Roby (Pensacola)
Comparing the Three
Infield: 1. California, 2. Texas, 3. Florida
Led by likely first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, California wins the infield. Tork and Tyler Soderstrom bring elite bats and the combination of Alika Williams and Casey Schmitt on the left side means you won't see many ground balls getting through. They, along with bat-first prospect Nick Yorke, have potent bats themselves, and Yorke's glove could play up at second base. Coming in second place, Texas has a very deep crop of shortstops that will top even the California infield defense, as all four infielders have the ability to stick at the premium position. Each bat comes with some questions, though, catcher Drew Romo included, and they can't nearly match the offensive firepower you see on the California side. Nick Loftin is the most balanced bat with great contact and some power, while Jordan Westburg has upside if he can put it all together, as does Masyn Winn. In Florida, superstar Austin Martin clearly alone makes it a strong infield, and Freddy Zamora and Anthony Servideo give the team excellent infield defense, but the non-Martin bats are just a bit light when stacking up against California and Texas.
Outfield/DH: 1. California, 2. Florida, 3. Texas
California wins again in the outfield, with a defense-oriented group that might never let a fly ball drop. That doesn't come at the expense of the bats, though, as Garrett Mitchell shows plus-plus raw power in batting practice and plus hitting ability, and if he can put that power to play in games, he could be the best player in the draft. Pete Crow-Armstrong showed big progress with the bat this spring, and for the third best hitter in the outfield, Isaiah Greene has a sweet swing himself. Even DH Kevin Parada has a chance to catch at the big league level, and he can really hit. Florida has its superstar in Zac Veen, while Dylan Crews brings another big bat and Enrique Bradfield brings the speed. Coby Mayo comes with contact questions, but the power is legitimate. Heston Kjerstad gets Texas off to a great start, but California has Mitchell and Florida has Veen, so it needed the rest of its outfield to step up, and it couldn't quite do that. Zach DeLoach got off to a hot start in 2020 but fits better in the second round, and Alerick Soularie isn't a true center fielder and got off to a slow start this year. Jimmy Glowenke is another steady bat who could play solid defense at second base.
Starting pitching: 1. Texas, 2. Florida, 3. California
Here is where the script flips. Asa Lacy, by most accounts the best amateur pitcher in the country, puts Texas on top, but he's not alone in that rotation. Jared Kelley might be the best high school pitcher in the country with a fastball he can run effortlessly into the upper 90's with command to go with it, and while Masyn Winn is being used in the infield in this case, I do prefer him on the mound. Clayton Beeter is a late riser in this year's draft class, pushing towards the first round, while Christian Roa and Bryce Elder give two very opposite looks – Roa has plenty of stuff and just needs to put it together, while Elder is much more a pitcher than a thrower. What Florida lacks in a clear ace, it makes up for in depth, with all five starters hoping to go in the first two rounds. Slade Cecconi and Carson Montgomery bring plenty of upside, Logan Allen is as safe a bet as you get outside the first round, and CJ Van Eyk and Tommy Mace kind of split the middle. After dominating with the bats, California pulls up in third place here, led by Jared Jones and Nick Garcia, two rising arms that find themselves just outside the first round. The depth of the high school-heavy rotation makes up for the lack of a first round arm, as Hunter Barnhart and Kyle Harrison are pretty refined for high school arms and college lefty Adam Seminaris is a high-probability big leaguer with more pitchability than stuff.
Bullpen: 1. Florida, 2. Texas, 3. California
Florida's depth of arms comes in handy here, with three power armed, potential starting pitchers sitting in the bullpen. All three of Jake Eder, Victor Mederos, and Alejandro Rosario can flash big velocity, with Mederos and Rosario getting into the upper 90's at times, but all three struggle with consistency and could see their stuff play up significantly in the bullpen. Texas has the best true relief prospect in the game in Burl Carraway, a fastball/curveball lefty out of Dallas Baptist, but there is no starter upside here like there is for other arms in this section. Justin Lange can run his fastball into triple digits but needs significant refinement, and Tanner Witt is a classic projection arm trending in the right direction. California pulls up the rear led by lefty Ricky Tiedemann, who I think has immense upside, but who currently sits around 90 with his fastball. Nick Frasso and Trenton Denholm are polar opposites, with Frasso using extremely long arms and great athleticism to release the baseball right up on hitters and Denholm getting by more on his bulldog mentality and great changeup despite being under six feet tall.
Overall: 1. California, 2. Florida, 3. Texas.
Despite lacking a first round prospect on the mound, California's extremely deep lineup, which features four likely first rounders including Spencer Torkelson, more than makes up for that. Florida is the most balanced team, with two elite hitting prospects (Austin Martin and Zac Veen) and a very deep group of pitchers, although they lack an elite arm. Texas pulls up the rear, led by two elite arms (Asa Lacy and Jared Kelley), but the lack of impact in the lineup behind Heston Kjerstad and Nick Loftin doesn't stack up against California or Florida.
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