2020 Draft Profile: Clayton Beeter

RHP Clayton Beeter, Texas Tech
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DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.14 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 33/4 K/BB in 21 IP

There were quite a few pitchers who came out of the gate strong in 2020 and pushed their draft stocks up because of it, and Clayton Beeter was certainly one of them. After missing his freshman season with Tommy John surgery, Beeter put up a 3.48 ERA and a 40/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings as a sophomore, flashing good stuff but struggling immensely to find the strike zone. In 2020, he looked like a completely different pitcher, working around a mediocre start against Tennessee to dominate Houston Baptist, Florida Atlantic, and Rice. After walking 21.5% of his opponents in 2019 (20 in 20.2 IP), he slashed that rate all the way down to 4.9% in 2020 (4 in 21 IP), not walking a batter or allowing an earned run over his final two starts.

If 2020 Beeter is the real deal, then he is, for lack of a better term, the real deal. His fastball now sits in the mid 90's and gets as high as 98, and it really looks like it's jumping on you because he comes straight over the top to give it steep downhill plane. He also throws a very good power curveball with 12-6 shape, and his best ones can show great depth down in the zone. He doesn't throw his slider and changeup as much, but both could be good pitches and would give him a great four pitch mix with further refinement. At 6'2", he has a starter's build and has looked great since coming back from Tommy John.

Now let's talk about command. He could barely throw strikes at all in 2019, and then he looked above average in that regard in 2020. A longer season could have really helped him cement his status as a strike thrower, but it also could have hurt him if he regressed against Big 12 competition. Three of his four walks came against Tennessee, the only above average lineup he faced, as did four of his five earned runs on the season. So what will his command look like in pro ball? If he maintains what he showed against weaker lineups, that makes him a pretty complete starting pitching prospect. But if it regresses, he could have to fight for a rotation spot in the minors.

Track record has been stressed over and over for this draft, and that's not something Beeter has much of outside of three really good starts against three mediocre lineups. However, his name has been rising recently and the second round is now looking more like his floor than his ceiling, with some teams in the top 40 or so picks giving him looks. As a redshirt sophomore, Beeter has a little more leverage and could bet on himself and return to Lubbock if he doesn't get the bonus he wants, but that's looking less likely as his name picks up steam.

Pitching in 2020 (CF view)
2020 start vs FAU (home plate view)