RHP Cole Henry, Louisiana State
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DoB: 7/15/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 1.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 23/6 K/BB in 19 IP
Henry is a member of the two deepest demographics in this year's draft, being college right handers and draft-eligible sophomores. A well-known prospect coming out of Florence High School in northern Alabama in 2018, Henry was just outside the top 100 in my rankings that year and made it to campus. A strong freshman season saw him put up a 3.39 ERA and a 72/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings, and he was starting to build on that with a 1.89 ERA and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio across 19 innings as a sophomore this year. In that sense, the shortened season probably hurts him more than others, as he shows plenty of upside but still has a lot to prove.
The big draw here is the stuff. Henry sits in the low to mid 90's, but he can reach back for up to 97 and his fastball seems to jump on hitters. He adds a big curveball with some impressive power down in the zone, a true plus pitch when it's on. His changeup is his third pitch, but it's been improving and rounds out his arsenal well. Fairly wild in high school, he smoothed out his delivery at LSU and has done a good job of throwing strikes in college with just a 7.4% walk rate (24 walks in 77.1 innings), and it comes together to give a really nice image of an impact starting pitcher.
The two problems for Henry have been durability and consistency. He stands 6'4" and has a starting pitcher's build, but missed time at multiple points in 2019 with various arm questions. Additionally, he was lifted after four innings from his start against UMass Lowell on March 6th after seeing his velocity dip to around 90, and since the season was cancelled just a few days later, that's the last taste scouts have in their mouths. When it comes to locating his stuff, his control (ability to throw strikes) has been better than his command (ability to locate within the zone), and he'll need to continue to make progress there in order to get the most out of his stuff. That stuff, while often showing plus, can also be relatively inconsistent, though he won't turn 21 until July and is younger than most of the other college arms available.
There's a lot to take in with Henry's profile. He clearly has the size and stuff to succeed at the major league level, and his control and command are trending in the right direction as well. Meanwhile, many parts of his game remain a bit unrefined, and he has a track record of nagging injuries. The upside here is that of an impact #2 starter, while there is also considerable relief risk if he can't harness his stuff or show he can handle 150-200 innings per season. It would be a fringe-first round profile in most years, but this year's class of college pitching is so deep that he probably fits better in the second round. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he has additional leverage and may be expensive to pry away from a return to Baton Rouge, which could push him down a bit farther in the draft.
2020 game action vs Texas
2019 game action vs Georgia
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