RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina
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DoB: 7/26/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5/2 K/BB in 3 IP.
In 2017, Gavin Williams was a well-known, if raw, prospect coming out of Fayetteville, North Carolina, one who stood 6'6" and was primarily known for running his fastball into the mid 90's. Three years later, he's more or less the same prospect. In his lone full season in 2019, he put up a 4.56 ERA and a 56/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 49.1 innings for ECU, then a finger injury limited him to just three innings as a junior in 2020. He's one of the more polarizing prospects in a class full of polarizing prospects, a classic projection project despite being a junior in college. Personally, I'm a fan and I'm buying into the upside.
Still standing 6'6", Williams has added a tick of velocity to his fastball since high school, now sitting comfortably in the mid 90's while consistently running it into the upper 90's and touching triple digits at times. He doesn't have to sell out to reach that velocity, either, with as strong of a right arm as you'll see in this class. The rest of his stuff, though, needs work. He has a big curveball that tends to be more than 20 miles per hour slower than his fastball, showing great shape and depth at times but rarely showing enough power to get big league hitters out. He'll need to focus on sharpening that pitch up, because pro hitters will be able to sit on his heater and have plenty of time to react to the big breaker. He also throws a pretty good changeup, one that can bump the upper 80's and show good fading action, giving him three pitches with potential.
Williams has much less of a track record than most college arms, having thrown a grand total of 68 innings for the Pirates. While he's not wild, his command is far from refined and his track record of throwing strikes is even more limited with 32 walks in that span. The good news is that Williams is actually pretty young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, which theoretically gives him more time to sharpen his game. There is a lot for him to work on, namely sharpening his command and offspeed pitches, but the fact that he hasn't actually been on the mound all that much might bode well for his ability to develop that in the future.
If Williams does get everything figured out, his upside is sky high. At a listed 6'6" and 240 pounds, he has the frame to start. There is significant reliever risk though, probably more likely than not, but the thought of him sitting close to 100 out of the bullpen is not a comforting thought for hitters. The building blocks are there – he throws extremely hard, his curveball has great top to bottom shape, and he does have feel for that changeup. Williams probably ends up getting drafted in the third or fourth round, especially with teams valuing track record, but his upside perhaps fits closer with most of the second round prospects.
Pitching in 2019
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