2020 Draft Profile: Kevin Abel

RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State
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DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: Did not play – injured.

Here is another interesting profile. A well-regarded recruit coming out of the San Diego high school ranks, Kevin Abel (no relation to OSU recruit Mick Abel) was a solid contributor with a 4.13 regular season ERA for Oregon State in 2018. However, that was just the beginning, as he kicked it into another gear come NCAA Tournament time and went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 29 innings, including a complete game, two hit shutout in the championship clincher against Arkansas. Already a superhero around Corvallis before he even turned 20, he lasted three starts into the 2019 season before going down with back problems and eventually Tommy John surgery. Now, with only 16.1 innings under his belt since that championship-winning shutout on June 28th, 2018, it's hard to know what to make of him.

Long, long ago, when healthy, Abel sat in the low 90's with his fastball, which played up because of his other two pitches. His curve has big top to bottom break, though at times it can lack power, giving him at least an average breaking ball with above average to plus potential. His changeup is his strikeout pitch, with it's great fading action making it extremely difficult to square up. He thrives when he tunnels the fastball and changeup together, and if he can get a little more consistent curveball, that will be a great three pitch mix.

Abel's command was about average early in his college career, which is better than most of his peers at that age. Projecting it now could be a wild card, though, just because we've barely seen him over the past two seasons, but the hope is that he'll regain the feel he had early in his career and end up with above average command down the road. The fact that he was so good as a freshman, and got better and better throughout the season at that, shows that the natural ability is clearly there. The fact that he handled the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament to post a sub-1.00 ERA at just 19 years old speaks to his ability to handle the mental side of the game as well.

It's extremely difficult to peg Abel, who could have pitched his way into the first round had he been healthy throughout his career. Teams are, and should be, wary of drafting someone based solely off what they did two years ago, but it just takes one team to jump at the opportunity to snag a potential impact starting pitcher. Signability will likely come into question here as well, as Abel could easily head back to Oregon State with eligibility to spare and return a much higher pick in 2021. If he is signable, he could fit anywhere from the second to the fourth round, though he more likely ends up closer to the back of that range.

2019 start vs Nebraska
2018 championship-winning start vs Arkansas