RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State
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DoB: 2/22/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 2.74 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 37/7 K/BB in 23 IP
After winning the Ohio state championship in 2017, Jackson High School in the Canton suburb of Massillon sent its catcher to Ohio State and its best pitcher to Ball State. While Dillon Dingler has worked his way into serious first round conversation, Kyle Nicolas isn't far behind him. He showed loud stuff over his first two years in Muncie, but erratic command (91 walks in 108.2 innings) led to a 5.30 ERA in that time span. However, he looked much more refined in 2020, and he ended his season on a high note with a fantastic final start against Sacred Heart, allowing just two baserunners over seven shutout innings while striking out seventeen.
With Nicolas, it starts with the fastball. He sits in the mid 90's consistently and has reached back for triple digits a couple of times. The rest of his arsenal, though, is inconsistent. His best breaking ball is a potentially plus slider, which stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than for its movement but which can have sharp, bat-missing bite at times. He throws a curveball with good depth at its best, but the pitch often lacks finish and can get hit up in the zone. Lastly, he hasn't had much need for his changeup against a Midwest Athletic Conference (MAC) schedule, and that will be a key piece of his development going forward.
Nicolas has a long history of struggling to throw strikes. He walked 44 batters in 57 innings as a freshman in 2018, then walked 47 in 51.2 innings as a sophomore. However, he took a big step forward with his command in 2020, and it goes beyond just the fact that he walked only seven in 23 innings this year. He was also doing a much better job of repeating his delivery and getting ahead in the count, showing real progress rather than a fluke couple of weeks. At 6'4", he has a clear starter's build, and that 17 strikeout start against Sacred Heart to end the season put an exclamation point on the progress he's made.
It's a bit more of a boom/bust profile with Nicolas than with many other college arms in this range of the draft, but the size, velocity, projection in his stuff, and improvement in his command point give him a very high ceiling. He's the kind of pitcher who could take another leap forward in pro ball and look like a steal within a year, but there is continued work that needs to be done to get him to where he needs to be. If starting doesn't work out, he could fall back as a fastball/slider reliever with the former approaching 100. He probably fits somewhere in the second round, but due to the nature of his profile, he could easily be drafted before or after that.
Pitching in 2019 fall practice
Summer Cape Cod action
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