Wednesday, June 10, 2020

2020 Draft: Tool by Tool, Hitters

The draft is today, so let's go tool by tool to see where we can find what in this year's draft.

Hit
Best of the best: Austin Martin (Vanderbilt), Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State), Robert Hassell (Independence HS, TN), Nick Loftin (Baylor), Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State)

If you look at this list, you'll see four contact hitters and a power hitter – there's a reason Spencer Torkelson is likely to go first overall. It feels weird mentioning a slugging first baseman who knocked 54 home runs in two years and change at Arizona State among the best contact hitters in the class, but he didn't just muscle those balls over the fence. Tork takes explosive hacks from the right side to produce plus-plus raw power, but he gets to it in games because he can catch up to velocity, recognize offspeed pitches, and execute his game plan in the batters' box as well as anyone in this class. That's how you hit .337/.463/.729 over 129 games in a power five program. Moving on, Austin Martin and Nick Gonzales are pretty similar hitters. Both right handers come with elite pitch recognition skills and the ability to execute in every at bat against any pitcher. Neither are slap hitters, instead channeling elite barrel-to-ball, not just bat-to-ball, skills into extra base hits and home runs when they really run into one. Martin struck out just twice in sixteen games in 2020. Nick Loftin rounds out the collegians in this section as a very disciplined hitter who doesn't hit for the same kind of impact as the other three college guys, but he's struck out just 42 times in 121 career games at Baylor, hitting for more and more impact as he's gone along. Lastly, Robert Hassell is the consensus best contact hitter in the high school class, showing a sweet left handed swing and the ability to square up even the top arms in the 2020 prep class. That has earned him comparisons to Jarred Kelenic, who to a great start in the Mariners organization, though he's a bit faster with a bit less power.

Power
Best of the best: Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State), Aaron Sabato (North Carolina), Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL), Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA), Blaze Jordan (DeSoto Central HS, MS)

Look who's back, Spencer Torkelson. It's not just the raw power with this guy, though he can blast a ball as far as anyone in the class. It's how he gets to it so consistently in games, blasting 54 in 129 career games at Arizona State. He can pull, he can go opposite field, he can take you over the batter's eye in center field, and he can do it against velocity and breaking stuff. This is some of the best game power we've seen from a draftee in years. Aaron Sabato is somewhat of a Torkelson-lite, generating great game power (25 in 83 career games at UNC) mostly due to absolute brute man strength. Listed at 6'2" and 230 pounds, he could be cast as a power hitter in a Hollywood movie because he fits the visual stereotype to a T. He's strong, man, and his ability to make adjustments at the plate has helped bring about that power in games very consistently. On the high school side, Zac Veen is mostly about projection, but there is a ton there. A skinny, but broad-shouldered kid at 6'4", he has a beautiful left handed swing that puts a ton of loft and leverage on the ball, visually similar to that of Cody Bellinger. While there is some swing and miss present, he shows advanced plate discipline and that as helped him hit for consistent contact on the prep circuit, and the power seems to be showing up more and more every day – pushing him way up draft boards. Austin Hendrick has long been the flag bearer for game power on the prep circuit, and it's through no fault of his own that Veen has raced past him. Hendrick has exceptionally quick hands from the left side of the plate that, despite a smaller six foot frame, enable him to put a tremendous amount of torque and power onto the baseball and blast it out to all fields. There are some swing and miss questions, but nobody doubts his ability to punish baseballs with a lightning fast bat and plenty of loft. If Hendrick is the flag bearer for game power, then Blaze Jordan is the flag bearer for raw power from a high schooler. Despite being a year and a half younger than Hendrick, Jordan can launch some absolute monster moonshots, winning many amateur home run derbies and blasting a ball 500 feet in one at 13 years old. It can play in games, too, but it's not as consistent as the other names on this list and he'll need to add some loft to his choppy swing to tap it more consistently down the road.

Speed
Best of the best: Garrett Mitchell (UCLA), Enrique Bradfield (American Heritage HS, FL), Casey Martin (Arkansas), David Calabrese (St. Elizabeth HS, ON), Jake Vogel (Huntington Beach HS, CA)

If we were only considering batting practice for the power list, Garrett Mitchell might have cracked both the power and speed lists. He may not get to his power as much in games, but nobody can take away the fact that Mitchell can absolutely fly. That, combined with the raw power, polish, and arm strength he possesses, makes him the most tooled up prospect in the class. Enrique Bradfield is on the other end of the spectrum, just barely more than a pure slap hitter at this point. Speed is an absolutely critical part of his game, enabling him to beat out bunts and ground balls more consistently than anyone in the class. Casey Martin is more like Mitchell in that he brings lots of power to the table, though with significantly less polish that leads to some of his tools playing down for now. As tooled up as anyone save for Mitchell, it's a lot of fun to watch him play, but he needs to clean up his game significantly to handle pro baseball. David Calabrese and Jake Vogel attend high school more than two thousand miles apart in Toronto and Los Angeles, respectively, but both undersized outfielders use their speed to wreak havoc on both sides of the ball. Both turn gappers into doubles and triples regularly, and both deploy their speed very nicely in center field.

Defense

Catchers: Drew Romo (The Woodlands HS, TX), Casey Opitz (Arkansas), Dillon Dingler (Ohio State)
Drew Romo has been lauded around the industry as the all-around best defensive high school catcher not only this year, but in quite a few years, with elite all-around actions back there that won't take much refining in pro ball at all. You get that sometimes with college catchers, but rarely with the high school guys. At Arkansas, Casey Opitz has the best arm in the class, completely shutting down the running game against the Razorbacks. Not only that, he's very adept behind the plate, and offers possibly the most exciting defensive profile here. Now if only he had a longer track record of hitting. Dillon Dingler, the late riser out of Ohio State, is an exceptional athlete who could handle numerous other positions on the diamond if he weren't a catcher. That enables him to move extremely well behind the plate, and it also transfers into a quick release and a strong arm.

Infielders: Alika Williams (Arizona State), Ed Howard (Mount Carmel HS, IL), Freddy Zamora (Miami)
You'd be hard pressed to find someone who doesn't love Alika Williams at shortstop. He forced another great defender, Gage Workman, over to third base at Arizona State, using his quick hands, great range, and overall smooth operation to solidify himself as one of the premier defenders in the class. Miami's Freddy Zamora is similarly talented, but he's not as consistent from play to play and some scouts have questioned his effort at times. He can make every highlight reel play with Williams, and a little bit of smoothing out the edges could make him a Gold Glover. Ed Howard leads the high school class with exceptional athleticism and range, and he should be the first true shortstop off the board this year.

Outfielders: Garrett Mitchell (UCLA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA), Enrique Bradfield (American Heritage HS, FL)
This list looks pretty similar to the speed section, and indeed, David Calabrese didn't miss by much. Garrett Mitchell deploys his 80 grade speed very well in center field, and he adds a cannon arm to give him easily the best defensive upside in this class of outfielders. Pete Crow-Armstrong isn't as fast as Mitchell or Bradfield, but he's a natural center fielder who uses his great instincts to complement his plus wheels and bring great range. Add in a strong arm, and he could win Gold Gloves. Enrique Bradfield doesn't quite have the arm strength of the other two, but he can match Mitchell step for step in a foot race withe elite speed and the ability to cover the entire outfield by himself if he wanted to.

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