2022 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

The Pirates made a huge splash by drafting potential superstar Termarr Johnson fourth overall, then fell back onto a very pitching-heavy strategy that included 15.5 pitchers (Jack Brannigan is a two-way player) over their remaining 20 picks. They targeted a wide variety, from power armed, likely relievers like Brannigan, J.P. Massey, and Cy Nielson to more polished starter types like Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, and Michael Kennedy. Athleticism was a big theme here for many.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-4: SS Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA]. My rank: #3.
Slot value: $7.01 million. Signing bonus: $7.22 million ($213,200 above slot value).
It is very, very easy to dream on Termarr Johnson as a future superstar for the Pirates. Long one of the most famous names in the high school class, he may have been the victim of prospect fatigue this spring as the conversation moved from the top five range to more of the 4-10 range, but by giving him more than seven million dollars to sign at fourth overall, Pittsburgh clearly stayed on him. We're talking about one of the most advanced young hitters we have seen in a long time, one that could reach the majors well before he turns 21. Johnson is an extremely disciplined hitter that takes some of the most professional at bats in the class, looking right at home in the box against the top pitchers in the class. Meanwhile, he puts his barrel on virtually everything he swings at, and if you need proof, here he is barreling up a baseball in the opposite batter's box. It all amounts to a double-plus hit tool that could be 80 grade in time. He's not just a slap hitter, though. Johnson possesses very real, plus power despite standing just 5'9", generating a huge amount of torque and lift from a rotational swing and a very strong lower half and quick wrists. Together, it could amount to 30+ home runs a year with very high on-base percentages, which would be perennial All Star caliber. My only concern with the offensive profile is very, very slight, the true definition of a nitpick, but the barrel isn't in the zone for all that long because he cocks the bat a little before swinging, has a little uppercut, and possesses at ton of bat speed that has the bat here and gone in a flash. But really, everything else about his hit tool is so strong that it's virtually moot. Defensively, he's probably not quite explosive enough to stick at shortstop, but he's very smooth on the dirt and could profile as an above average second baseman that makes all of the routine plays if he doesn't slow down at all. When you're handing out $7 million-plus signing bonuses, playing a premium defensive position like catcher, shortstop, or center field is often a priority, but Johnson's bat is so strong that the Pirates or more than happy to overlook it. For an MLB comp, we can go with peak Daniel Murphy but with better defense and potentially more power if the Atlanta native reaches his ceiling. He's off to a slow start to his pro career, slashing .125/.256/.188 with a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, but he only just turned 18 in June.

CBA-36: RHP Thomas Harrington, Campbell. My rank: #44.
Slot value: $2.15 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($100,300 below slot value).
Thomas Harrington was one of the higher profile risers this spring, and the Pirates will happily grab him in the competitive balance round for below slot value. Lightly recruited out of his North Carolina high school, Harrington walked onto the baseball team at Campbell just up the road from his hometown and immediately found success as a true freshman in the rotation. He took it to another level in 2022, posting a 2.54 ERA and a 111/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings and going at least six innings in every single start except for one, and he was only pulled from the one due to a lengthy rain delay. Harrington is one of the most balanced pitchers in the class with very few weaknesses. His fastball has steadily ticked up and now sits in the low 90's with a peak around 96, and he follows it up with a deep arsenal. His slider, curveball, and changeup are all consistently at least average, often above average and occasionally plus, and together they helped him strike out 30% of his opponents. The 6'2" righty's best attribute is his plus command, which helps him execute all of those average to above average pitches with precision and rarely ever hurt himself with walks. It's a very clear starting pitching profile that should move quickly through the minors, and while he may not be an ace, he has a very good chance to be a #3. He's durable, he only turned 21 shortly before the draft, and it's very hard to find any holes in his game.

2-44: LHP Hunter Barco, Florida. My rank: #74.
Slot value: $1.78 million. Signing bonus: $1.53 million ($251,100 below slot value).
While few scouts knew Thomas Harrington's name out of high school, Hunter Barco was one of the most famous prospects in his high school class, earning even some first round interest. He made it to campus at Florida, had a couple of very good but unspectacular seasons as an underclassman, then looked like he was breaking out with a 2.50 ERA and a 69/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings this spring. Unfortunately, he left a mid April start against Vanderbilt with an elbow injury and wound up succumbing to Tommy John surgery, so we won't see him pitch until mid 2023. Still, there is plenty to like. Barco has had inconsistent fastball velocity throughout his amateur career, touching 96-97 on some days and sitting around 90 on others, coming from a lower slot albeit with average life. His plus, sweeping slider is his best pitch, missing a ton of bats as it dives across the plate. He also throws an above average split change to round out his arsenal, giving him a very solid three pitch mix when the fastball velocity is there. The Jacksonville native is aggressive on the mound and pounds the strike zone, leading to low walk rates, though his in-zone command can be inconsistent. He was at his best throughout throughout out 2022 and it looked like he was putting it all together until he got hurt, and all things considered, it's not the worst time to get the surgery since he obviously isn't ready to contribute to the big league club anyways. The 6'4" lefty also brings plenty of projection to the table with an ideal pitcher's frame, and as he gets stronger post-surgery, the Pirates believe he'll be touching the mid 90's much more regularly. It's a high probability #3/#4 starter profile with a floor as a very solid three pitch reliever.

3-83: 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan, Notre Dame. My rank: #184.
Slot value: $770,700. Signing bonus: $770,700.
Jack Brannigan was ranked #164 by MLB Pipeline, #168 by Baseball America, #182 by Prospects Live, and #184 on my board, so it's safe to say this is much earlier than most thought he would go. Not only that, but the Pirates drafted him as a two-way player, so this will be loads of fun to watch. Brannigan (who by the way has to have the most Notre Dame name of all time) has more experience as a hitter, but the talent is equally intriguing on both sides of the ball and I'll admit I may have been too low on him with my ranking. Starting with the bat, he had an up and down 2022 season and slashed .291/.360/.540 with 12 home runs and a 49/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, showing off big physical tools but not always the ability to tap them in games. Although he's a bit undersized at 6', 190 pounds, he's quietly one of the best athletes in the class, not just with above average speed but with his natural ability to just move well on the diamond. There is above average power in the tank due both to his strength as well as that natural athleticism and ability to channel that strength, though his swing can get swoopy leading to some swing and miss concerns. He can sometimes struggle with breaking balls and overall is just not consistent with his hit tool. This could be a case of giving up pitching and finding more rhythm in the box, where his natural ability could take over and make him a 20+ home run hitter with decent on-base percentages. Over at third base, he has a chance to be a plus defender there with an absolute cannon of a right arm and the aforementioned athleticism that touches every part of his game. On the mound, he's considerably more raw and has thrown just 23.1 innings over three years at Notre Dame, but he could throw a lot more than that with Pittsburgh. After pitching sparingly in 2020 and 2021, he took on a slightly larger role in 2022 and posted a 7.93 ERA and a 28/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.2 innings out of the bullpen. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and can touch triple digits at his best, with plenty of arm side run to miss barrels. He adds a rapidly improving slider that is starting to flash plus when he commands it, and he's worked to add a changeup as well. The Chicago-area native has seen his command improve from perhaps 30 grade to 40 grade, which is still comfortably below average but playable. He doesn't need good command with his stuff, just enough to get strike one and elicit chases. With long arm action and that below average command, he's almost certainly a reliever long term unless he gave up hitting right away and focused exclusively on stretching out, which I don't see happening. He hasn't pitched yet in the minors, but he is slashing .250/.366/.400 with two home runs and a 19/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton. 

4-110: LHP Michael Kennedy, Troy HS [NY]. My rank: #92.
Slot value: $554,800. Signing bonus: $1 million ($445,200 above slot value).
Michael Kennedy is a very interesting prospect that you might miss if you're not watching closely, as he's had a bit less exposure up in Upstate New York and doesn't throw particularly hard. Kennedy sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 94 and occasionally dipping into the upper 80's, so he does need to add velocity. He flips in an above average, sweepy slider and shows solid feel for his changeup, giving him a good three pitch mix but not one that will stand out among pro prospects. He has a fairly stocky build at 6'1", 205 pounds that lacks projection, but he's a better athlete than you might think and moves very well on the mound. With a crossfire delivery, he gets down the mound with good extension and gets a low release height on his pitches, making them play up. Additionally, the Albany-area native pounds the strike zone with above average command and works those pitches well off each other, making for a very solid all-around product. Now in the Pirates system, it's time to focus on sharpening up his stuff and adding velocity, which I believe he'll do. Throw in that he's extremely young for the class and won't even turn 18 until after Thanksgiving, and you have a kid who could develop into a very solid #3 starter in time.

5-140: OF Tres Gonzalez, Georgia Tech. My rank: #157.
Slot value: $414,600. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($67,100 below slot value).
Tres Gonzalez brings a bit of an old school profile here, a hit-over-power type that could reach the majors quickly. After battering elite Cape Cod League pitching with a barrage of singles last summer, he did the same in the ACC this spring and slashed .339/.458/.474 with five home runs and a 27/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. He's an extremely disciplined hitter that just looks too advanced to be playing college baseball, managing the strike zone as well as anybody in the class and doing so even against elite arms. He also has excellent bat to ball skills, which combined with that approach led to a sub-10% strikeout rate this spring, spraying line drives around the field with a loose, quick swing. Listed at 5'11", 185 pounds, he is not overly physical and does not project for much power at all, and instead will rely on posting high on-base percentages with plenty of singles, doubles, and walks. A plus runner, he'll be able to make the most of those balls he puts in the gaps. The Atlanta-area native played left field for Georgia Tech but might be able to cut it in center field at least in a part time role. That's important, because with his fringy arm, it's hard to profile in left in any role if you can't hit for power. If he does stick in center, there's an outside chance he can play every day if everything else translates up, but the most likely projection is that of a fourth outfielder that gets on base at a high clip. So far, he's slashing .333/.407/.375 with a 7/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton.

6-170: RHP Derek Diamond, Mississippi. My rank: #187.
Slot value: $311,600. Signing bonus: $311,600.
Derek Diamond has been an interesting prospect throughout his time at Ole Miss, but it's hard to know what to make of him. He jumped into the Rebels' rotation right away as a true freshman in 2020 and showed well, then battled through an up and down 2021 season to still make 20 appearances (14 starts) and throw 75.1 innings. 2022 was more down than up, as he posted a 6.89 ERA and a 57/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings, mostly as a starter, but barely pitched in the postseason as manager Mike Bianco chose to put his faith in more consistent arms. Just as it was looking like he would fall out of day two consideration, he showed very well in pre-draft bullpens and got teams interested again. Diamond can touch 97 with riding action on his fastball but, like Hunter Barco, doesn't always hold that velocity and can dip into the upper 80's. His slider and changeup both flash above average, but again, are inconsistent. The 6'2" righty stands out best for his athleticism on the mound, enabling him to repeat his delivery extremely well and show consistently above average command, which is why he's managed to stick as a starter all this time. When the fastball is around 90 and the secondaries aren't biting, no amount of command is going to make that work, but the stuff he's shown at his peak including just before the draft absolutely will. The Pirates will want to help build up Diamond's stamina to help get him more consistent with his stuff, and if it clicks, it's hard not to like a plus command arm that gets up into the mid 90's with two quality secondaries. He's off to a strong start in the Florida Complex League, tossing four shutout innings on three hits and one walk while striking out four in three relief appearances.

7-200: RHP J.P. Massey, Minnesota. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $243,000. Signing bonus: $150,000 ($93,000 below slot value).
Big Ten evaluators have been waiting for a J.P. Massey breakout for some time, but haven't gotten it just yet. He was draft eligible as a junior in 2021, but walked 33 batters in 20 innings and returned to school. While you can't call it a breakout, he did get himself figured out a little bit in 2022, holding down a rotation spot and posting a 6.52 ERA and a 63/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings. It's odd to say this about a 22 year old college senior, but Massey is a projection play. His fastball currently sits in the low 90's and touches the mid 90's at best, and he adds a slew of secondaries in a slider, curveball, and changeup that are all extremely inconsistent but show promise. Throw on below average command stemming from troubles with his mechanics, and you have yourself a project. But Massey is listed at 6'5", 205 pounds with great athleticism and moves very naturally on the mound, so scouts continued to come back and watch his starts even as he struggled to a career 6.70 ERA and 17.1% walk rate over four years at Minnesota. The Chicago native does have feel for spin as well on top of his natural athleticism, and a change of scenery away from Minneapolis and into a pro development system might finally help him pull it all together. It's probably a relief profile though unless the Pirates can work some miracles.

8-230: LHP Cy Nielson, Brigham Young. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $193,200. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($18,200 below slot value).
Cy Nielson has been known for some time now as one of the more electric left handers in the Rocky Mountain region, and after walking 17.3% of his opponents in 2021, his command took a big step forward in 2022 as he dropped that number to 5.1%. The result was a 3.21 ERA and a 45/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings as a reliever, as well as some impressive outings in the Cape Cod League. Nielson sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can get up to 97, showing great riding action that helps him miss plenty of barrels. His slider is fairly inconsistent, but flashes above average and can be especially potent against left handed hitters from his crossfire delivery. The Utah native also adds a changeup and has gotten much more consistent with his delivery, making for a serious MLB relief candidate. He has some experience as a starter on the Cape, but it seems best for the Pirates to play it straight up and let his three pitch mix continue to eat in a relief role. If he can hold his command together and get more consistent with his secondary stuff, he could be a highly valuable left handed reliever in short order. So far, he has allowed three runs in 3.2 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton, with three strikeouts to four walks.

14-410: LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Julian Bosnic had significant day two interest in 2021, where he posted a 2.84 ERA and a 78/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings for South Carolina, but bet on himself and went back to school. Unfortunately, he wound up missing the entire 2022 season with an elbow injury, so he signed with the Pirates for $125,000 in the fourteenth round. Bosnic has big stuff, starting with an explosive low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 97 with excellent riding life. He drops in a hammer curveball that plays extremely well off his fastball, giving him two potential plus pitches to work off while the changeup is a bit behind. As a nearly-23 year old two pitch guy who has never stuck around in a rotation for long, the 6'3" lefty has an uphill climb if he wants to start, though he does show enough command at his best to give it a shot if the Pirates are willing to be patient. More likely, though, is a future where he stays in the bullpen and maxes out that excellent fastball/curveball combination with enough command to make it work. Of course, the first step will be getting healthy.

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big Ten

2021 draftees: 29. Top school: Indiana (6)
2021 preseason writeup (published 11/17/2020)

Top draftees:
2-59, Braves: RHP/SS Spencer Schwellenbach (Nebraska)
2-61, Twins: LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan)
3-79, Rockies: RHP McCade Brown (Indiana)
3-94,  White Sox: RHP Sean Burke (Maryland)
3-98, Twins: LHP Cade Povich (Nebraska)
6-176, Giants: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State)
7-209, Marlins: RHP Gabe Bierman (Indiana)

The Big Ten is probably a top-two conference for both football and basketball, but in baseball, it's well behind the other four "power five" and I had to dig pretty deep to find early round prospects for 2022. In 2021, the league saw five players go in the top one hundred picks, and unfortunately I don't think they'll match that in 2022. This is a pitching-heavy list that, if anything, is strong on left handed pitchers that take up four of the ten slots. No one school dominates the list, as Rutgers and Michigan (two apiece) are the only two schools with more than one player.

1. OF Clark Elliott, Michigan.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 9/29/2000. Hometown: Barrington, IL.
2021: 5 HR, .270/.403/.428, 8 SB, 34/30 K/BB in 43 games.
For the second year in a row, the top preseason prospect in the conference comes from Michigan. Clark Elliott has been trending up slowly but steadily ever since he reached campus in Ann Arbor, bumping his slash line from .245/.369/.340 as a freshman to a very respectable .270/.403/.428 as a sophomore. This summer, he continued to build on that progress and won the Cape Cod League batting title with a .344/.464/.478 slash line, adding a pair of home runs and posting a very strong 20/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games. He's a hit over power outfielder that combines an advanced approach at the plate with strong feel for the barrel to find himself on base as consistently as anybody in the conference and against good pitching. While he'll send more balls into the gaps than over fences, he's not just a slap hitter and will punish you if you leave a ball in his wheelhouse, showing a chance at average power if he can get a little stronger and perhaps add some loft. With plus speed, those gappers quickly turn into doubles and triples, and that speed helps him profile long term in center field as well. It's a prototypical leadoff profile that's especially suited for today's game because he draws plenty of walks, and given that he's been consistently getting better, the Chicago-area product has a great chance to build on his stock even further with a strong 2022. As it stands, Elliott probably projects for 10-15 home runs a year with relatively high on-base percentages, which probably puts him in the second or third round if the draft were today.

2. LHP Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 12/27/2000. Hometown: Frankfort, IL.
2021: 5.82 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 48/13 K/BB in 38.2 innings.
There's getting hot, then there's whatever Cole Kirschsieper did the second half of this spring and throughout the summer. Beginning his sophomore season in the Illinois rotation, he brought a 9.15 ERA into mid-April and then turned his season around on a dime, posting a 2.00 ERA and a 27/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings the rest of the way mostly in a short relief role. Fresh off his strong finish, he cranked it up another notch over the summer and between the Appalachian League (21 IP), Cape Cod League (12 IP), and US Collegiate National Team (3 IP), he was nearly unhittable: 36 IP, 1 ER (0.25 ERA), 12 H, 17 BB, 54 K. And that was against good competition. A soft tossing lefty when he reached campus in Urbana-Champaign, Kirschsieper has added a tick of velocity but still only sits around 90 with his fastball, dropping in an average sweepy slider and an above average changeup. Despite the lack of power in his arsenal, hitters simply can't seem to pick him up. He hides the ball well with a crossfire, low three quarters delivery, and despite just average command, hitters are always off balance and never seem to be on any of his pitches. The 5'11" lefty lacks much projection and won't stand out in pro ball with his present combination of stuff and command, but he repeats his delivery well and even a small step forward into the low 90's with his fastball could have pro teams very interested. For now, it's probably a long relief projection, but he's my breakout pick for the Big Ten this spring and I could see a very different projection come draft day in 2022.

3. RHP Cameron Weston, Michigan.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 8/27/2000. Hometown: Canonsburg, PA.
2021: 7-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 69/29 K/BB in 83.1 innings.
Cameron Weston was just barely eligible for last year's draft, but after a strong season in the Michigan rotation, the money wasn't quite where he wanted it and he'll head back to Ann Arbor to build his stock. Weston sits in the low 90's with a sinking fastball, topping out around 95 and adding an average slider and splitter. At present, it's not the kind of stuff that misses a ton of bats, with a relatively pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate in 2021 against almost exclusively Big Ten competition, but it is the kind of stuff that avoids hard contact and eats up innings. In fact, his 83.1 innings led the entire conference, while he was one of just six Big Ten starters to make at least 14 starts. The 6'2" righty generally shows above average control of his arsenal and should get to above average command in time as he gets better about repeating his relatively simple delivery, so combining that with his strong frame, you get a pretty safe bet back-end starter. For now, it's hard projecting more than a #4 or #5 starter type, so taking a step forward with one of his offspeed pitches will be key if he wants to go in the top four or five rounds. The Pittsburgh-area native may have been eligible last year as a sophomore, but only barely, so he'll still be age appropriate for this year's draft.

4. RHP Jack Perkins, Indiana.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 215 lbs. Born 12/26/1999. Hometown: Kokomo, IN.
2021 (at Louisville): 1-1, 7.31 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, 15/22 K/BB in 16 innings.
This could be Seth Lonsway part two, but to this point Jack Perkins has shown even less command than his Ohio State predecessor. Perkins began his career at Louisville, but after missing 2020 with Tommy John surgery, he came back completely unable to throw strikes and got into just three games after April 6th as the Cardinals collapsed. A Kokomo native, he transferred back to his home state this year and will pitch for Indiana, where hopefully the Hoosier staff can help him figure things out. Perkins has absolutely wicked stuff, probably the best in the conference. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97 in short stints, adding a plus slider with ridiculous spin rates that can be absolutely devastating when located. He also adds a curveball and changeup, but both are fringy pitches for now. The 6'1" righty jerks through his delivery a bit and really struggles to repeat his release point, often yanking pitches into the dirt or sailing then up. Set to turn 22 this winter, it's unlikely Perkins ever becomes a full time starter in pro ball unless a team like the Dodgers or Indians can miraculously overhaul his mechanics, but I know there are quite a few teams out there that would absolutely love to get their hands on an arm and arsenal like that. In 2021, his goal will be to show that there's more to the package than just explosive stuff and that he's a pitcher, not just a thrower.

5. 1B Peyton Williams, Iowa.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'5", 250 lbs. Born 9/14/2000. Hometown: Johnston, IA.
2021: 6 HR, .295/.470/.582, 0 SB, 37/34 K/BB in 38 games.
The Iowa Hawkeyes may be better known for their football and basketball programs, but this year, one of the best hitters in the entire conference resides in Iowa City. In 2021, Peyton Williams was exactly the kind of hitter that opposing managers circled in the lineup, getting on base at nearly a .500 clip while threatening to send a baseball into the bleachers at any point. He's an extremely imposing presence at the plate, listed at 6'5" and 250 pounds, with plus raw power that he gets to with a simple, direct swing from the left side. Williams is a disciplined hitter as well, taking his walks when pitchers won't give him something to hit, though there is just a little bit of swing and miss in his game. It's important that he keeps that swing and miss to a minimum because he provides little defensive value as a first baseman-only with well below average speed, so his bat will completely carry him. With his power and patience combination, the Des Moines-area product should provide plenty of value with that bat and could hit his way into the middle of a big league lineup one day, though to be more comfortable with that projection, evaluators will want to see him tap his power more often in games and clear more fences rather than shooting line drives into the gaps or yanking them down the line.

6. LHP Ryan Ramsey, Maryland.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6', 190 lbs. Born 1/18/2001. Hometown: Montvale, NJ.
2021: 5-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 43/12 K/BB in 37.2 innings.
A year after allowing seven earned runs in five innings as a freshman, Ryan Ramsey has steadily built his draft stock in 2021. He worked in a relief role for most of the season, throwing anywhere from one to four innings at a time, then was called upon to make his first college start in Maryland's regional matchup with Charlotte. Despite never having gone more than four innings in any appearance, he took the ball for eight innings that day and allowed just one run to a potent 49ers offense, thrusting himself into 2022 draft conversations. Ramsey only continued to improve in the New England Collegiate Baseball League this summer, posting a 2.53 ERA and a 51/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 32 innings against pretty solid competition. He's a 6' lefty armed with a low 90's fastball and a solid curveball and changeup, all of which he commands well and uses to attack the strike zone to get ahead. He's almost always in control of his at bats and after going at least five innings in half of his appearances in the NECBL, he's starting to prove he can handle a starting role. How the northern New Jersey product takes to that role over a full season in 2022 will determine whether he's a legitimate top five rounds candidate or more of a back of day two/day three flier, but lefties with his combination of stuff and command don't grow on trees and he'll have a lot of mid-Atlantic scouts in to see him throw.

7. RHP JP Massey, Minnesota.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Born 4/1/2000. Hometown: Chicago, IL.
2021: 0-4, 10.80 ERA, 2.85 WHIP, 22/33 K/BB in 20 innings.
JP Massey entered the 2021 season as one of the top prospects in the conference, pegged by many to be a major breakout candidate that could pitch his way into the top couple of rounds. At the time, he showed a fastball up to 96 and could drop in some sharp sliders, all with playable command and an extremely projectable 6'5" frame. Unfortunately, everything regressed and his stock plummeted. The fastball was down to around 90 most of the time, while his slider remained inconsistent and his fringe-average command completely disintegrated. Relatively young for his class with an April birthday, he won't turn 22 until the middle of the upcoming season, so the Chicago native still has time to turn things around and the frame is still as projectable as ever. In 2022, he'll need to get more comfortable corralling his long arms and legs into a more repeatable motion, something he's been able to do at least somewhat consistently in the past, just so Minnesota can be comfortable handing him consistent innings. From there, if he can reclaim his 2020 velocity, we have the makings of a very intriguing relief prospect on our hands. At this point, it's hard to project Massey as a starter in pro ball, but he does have a curveball and a changeup that he has used at times that have looked good, albeit inconsistent, in the past. There is still big upside here if he can pull it all together.

8. LHP Dale Stanavich, Rutgers.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'11", 175 lbs. Born 6/23/1999. Hometown: Amsterdam, NY.
2021: 1-0, 3.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/9 K/BB in 23 innings.
The oldest player on this list, Dale Stanavich is also the most well-travelled and will be 23 by the time the draft rolls around. An Upstate New York native, he began his career at Marshall in West Virginia before transferring to Herkimer JC near his hometown. After two years there, he jumped once more to Rutgers, where he led the team in saves as one of their most reliable bullpen arms. Stanavich's stock got a nice boost this summer with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League, where he put up a nice 2.29 ERA and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. A bit undersized at 5'11", he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has tightened his breaking ball into a sharp slider that darts across the zone. While Stanavich is unlikely to start in pro ball for multiple reasons, his newfound stuff combined with average command and a track record of performance against good competition make him an interesting relief candidate. The lefty could also move relatively quickly given his experience, and anybody who strikes out 45% of his opponents on the Cape is certainly worth watching no matter their age.

9. LHP Brian Fitzpatrick, Rutgers.
Bat: S. Throw: L. 6'7", 230 lbs. Born 6/1/2000. Hometown: Port Jefferson, NY.
2021: 3-2, 6.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20/7 K/BB in 17.2 innings.
Make that two left handed Rutgers relievers from New York that boosted their stock with a strong run through the Cape Cod League. Brian Fitzpatrick, like Dale Stanavich, went undrafted in 2021 but really shot forward on the Cape, posting a 1.93 ERA and a 32/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings for Brewster. While Stanavich stands just 5'11", though, Fitzpatrick is a towering 6'7" and also nearly a full year younger. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets some ride from a lower arm slot, while his average curveball and changeup give another look. While he has shown fringe-average command in New Brunswick, everything played up on the Cape because he took a step forward in his ability to control the strike zone and dictate at bats. Throw in that he went at least three innings in all but one appearance, and you have a kid with a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. We'll see if he and/or Stanavich can crack the Rutgers rotation this spring, though Fitzpatrick does seem like the better bet to start long term.

10. SS Branden Comia, Illinois.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 190 lbs. Born 4/27/2000. Hometown: Orland Park, IL.
2021: 3 HR, .323/.457/.445, 3 SB, 34/27 K/BB in 44 games.
Branden Comia was eligible in 2021, but will return arguably the Big Ten's most consistent bat to Urbana-Champaign and look to entrench himself as one of Illinois' all time great hitters. After a solid if unspectacular freshman campaign in 2019 (.255/.322/.370), he's been unstoppable at the plate over the past two seasons by hitting .347/.472/.505 with five home runs and a strong 46/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Comia has an innate knack for hard contact from the right side, finding the barrel consistently against all levels of pitching and deploying a patient approach that ensures he's on base nearly half the time. Aside from his hit tool, however, the Chicago-area native is lacking a bit in other tools. He's managed some gap power at Illinois, but that power has not shown up with wood bats over two years in the Northwoods League (.200/.341/.270) or in the MLB Draft league this summer (.272/.384/.333). A bit undersized at 5'10", adding loft to his relatively flat swing is unlikely to pay huge dividends, but it could help him remain a viable extra base threat in pro ball. Defensively, Comia has a sure glove and should be able to handle shortstop as a utility infielder, though playing him there every day may be a bit of a stretch. The defensive skillset does portend itself well at multiple positions in that utility profile, as does his high contact, low power bat.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the Big Ten

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on November 17th.

In contrast to football and basketball, where the Big Ten routinely challenges for national championships, the Big Ten is the weakest of the Power Five conferences in baseball. Michigan’s surprise run to the College World Series Championship against Vanderbilt in 2019 was a key achievement, but otherwise, the Big Ten is a tier below the SEC, ACC, and even Pac 12 and Big 12.

In terms of draft talent, we see a very clear theme here. Eight of the Big Ten Top Ten listed prospects are pitchers, and even they have a lot in common. These stringbean pitchers were listed, on average, at 6’4″ and 209 pounds, and only Seth Lonsway, Mason Erla, and Garrett Burhenn have any significant Big Ten experience. That means the ongoing theme will be projection, projection, projection.

As a map enthusiast, I also have to point out that this really represents the team of the North, with two players from Massachusetts, two from Indianapolis, and one each from Chicago, Portland, Baltimore, northwestern Ohio, and northeastern Michigan. In a sport typically heavier on players from warmer climates, I find that noteworthy.

1. LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’5″, 215 lbs. Born 8/7/2000. Hometown: Andover, MA
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.

Leading the way, Michigan’s Steven Hajjar fits all of the themes on this list. He’s long and lanky at 6’5″, grew up in Massachusetts, and is all upside with just 20 collegiate innings under his belt. Hajjar actually missed the 2019 season with a torn ACL, but he put himself back on the map with a statement start to open 2020. In his first college inning, he struck out Arizona State’s Drew Swift and Spencer Torkelson back to back, the latter of course going on to be selected first overall four months later. When the day was through, Hajjar had tossed six shutout innings and struck out seven against the best lineup in college baseball, and he finished with a 2.70 ERA in four starts.

Hajjar is oozing with traits scouts love to see. The 6’5″ lefty has a ton of room to fill out his lanky frame, which could help a fastball that currently sits in the low 90’s play up into the mid 90’s down the line. What was once a slurvy slider has added finish in Ann Arbor, flashing plus at its best and missing plenty of bats. He’s also improved what was once a fringy changeup into a legitimate solid average to above average offering, giving him three strong pitches from the left side. The stuff is there now and could get even better, but like many arms in the Big Ten, we’re waiting for some track record.

The ACL injury and shutdown mean he’s thrown just 20 innings in his college career, and he walked eleven in that span (including at least two in every start). He doesn’t always get his long left arm coming down in the same slot, leading to command questions that he hasn’t quite assuaged yet in fall workouts. That’s fixable with more reps, especially given that he’s young for a college junior and won’t turn 21 until August, but for now it’s at the top of the to-do list. For now, scouts will just have to dream on the stuff and projectability. With improved command and perhaps a tick or two of velocity, Hajjar has arguably the highest ceiling in the Big Ten.

2. RHP Sean Burke, Maryland

Bat: R. Throw R. 6’6″, 230 lbs. Born 12/18/1999. Hometown: Sutton, MA

2020: 2-0, 1.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 35/11 K/BB in 22.2 IP.

Two names, two towering pitchers from Massachusetts who missed 2019 with injuries. Sean Burke, who has an inch and fifteen pounds on Steven Hajjar, grew up an hour away from him in the Bay State, then spent 2019 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery while Hajjar dealt with his ACL. Returning in 2020, he shoved against a relatively weak non-conference schedule, putting up a 1.99 ERA and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio 22.2 innings. Heading into 2021, Hajjar has the leg up in handedness and a deeper arsenal, but Burke might have the louder “now” stuff.

Standing 6’6″ and 230 pounds, Burke was a cold weather projection arm coming out of high school and has made good on that projection. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, touching 95 with regularity. That fastball gets nice riding action up in the zone and misses bats consistently, playing above its velocity and pairing well with his curveball. That breaking ball is a tight spinner that can be equally tough to hit, and the two pitches give him a very high floor on their own. However, there is certainly still work to be done.

Hajjar has walked eleven batters in twenty innings, and it’s a similar line for Burke, with eleven walks in 22.2 innings against slightly weaker competition. He has a tendency to yank or sail his pitches, which hasn’t hurt him to this point but is something to watch. He has a clean delivery and seems to have finally grown into his large frame, so perhaps he just needs time to harness his loud stuff. Burke also needs to refine his changeup, which is clearly his third pitch at this point and not quite on par with Hajjar. As a two pitch pitcher with command questions, he faces considerable relief risk, but we’re looking at some of the loudest stuff in the Big Ten.

3. RHP JP Massey, Minnesota

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’5″, 205 lbs. Born 4/1/2000. Hometown: Chicago, IL
2019-2020: 1-2, 5.08 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 55/34 K/BB 44.1 IP.

Another name, another towering pitcher from up north. Between Steven Hajjar, Sean Burke, and JP Massey, the latter is the purest “projection” arm, with the most room to fill out his frame and the most work to do on his secondaries. Through two seasons in Minneapolis, the Chicago native has a 5.08 ERA and a 55/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings, not the loudest line but there is stuff to like when you look closely. In addition to striking out 26.1% of his opponents, he also has allowed just a .201 opponents’ batting average. With a considerable refinement, his ceiling is tremendous.

Massey’s best attribute is his fastball, which presently sits in the low to mid 90’s and can scrape 95-96. Given his long, lanky build, it’s easy to see him sitting more consistently in the mid 90’s down the road and touching higher. His two breaking balls can blend into each other, but his slider can really stand out when he tightens it up. We don’t have much of a changeup at this point, and the command is mediocre but improving.

Massey has a lot to work on, but just as much to like. If he can get a little more consistent with that slider and show more 55-60’s than 40-45’s, he has a chance to shoot up boards even without improvement in other areas. Meanwhile, maintaining steady progress with his command and getting it closer to average will help, while the changeup is obviously something to watch for. He’s a favorite among area scouts, and he only barely ranks behind Burke on my list. Watch Massey very closely for any signs of improvement in a multitude of areas.

4. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’3, 200 lbs. Born 10/7/1998. Hometown: Celina, OH

2019-2020: 9-6, 3.59 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 168/77 K/BB in 110.1 IP.

Seth Lonsway was a well-known draft name in rural western Ohio in 2017 but elected to attend Ohio State, then was mentioned as high as the second round for the 2020 draft. A high asking price left him undrafted, and now he becomes a priority draft name for a third cycle. You don’t see much contact in his game, as he struck out 30.3% of those he faced in 2019 and walked 14.2%, then got even more extreme in 2020 with 50.6% and 21.7% rates, respectively. For those more comfortable with raw numbers, that’s an incredible 42/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 innings in 2020.

Lonsway has the loudest “now” stuff in the Big Ten, and it’s not particularly close. His explosive fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out around 96, playing above its velocity because it runs hard and really jumps out of his hand. Then we have two breaking balls, led by an absolute hammer of a curveball that was one of the best in the 2020 draft. His lateral slider is improving as well and looks like at least an above average pitch, if not plus, and his changeup rounds out his arsenal nicely. All three secondary pitches generate whiff rates of 59% or above. To this point, Big Ten hitters have had absolutely no chance to make contact against him, instead relying on drawing walks or seeing fastballs over the middle of the plate.

That command is a serious problem. As his stuff has gotten louder, his location has gotten even more erratic, and he walked a combined 30 batters in 30 innings between the 2019 Cape Cod season and 2020 regular season. He struggles to wrangle that truly explosive stuff, despite a pretty clean overhand delivery. Sturdily built at 6’3″, he has every starter trait necessary except command, so whoever drafts the 22 year old will likely believe in his ability to start. If the command never gets better, the stuff could play exceptionally well out of the bullpen, especially from the left side, and he has plenty of margin for error.

5. OF Grant Richardson, Indiana

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 185 lbs. Born 7/13/1999. Hometown: Fishers, IN

2019-2020: 14 HR, .306/.366/.572, 4 SB, 73/17 K/BB in 60 games.

After four arms to start the list, we get to our top hitter at #5. Grant Richardson was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year, but went undrafted despite slashing .424/.453/.797 with five home runs in 14 games. That was no weak schedule either, as he went 6-12 with a home run in a weekend series against Louisiana State and had a pair of matching 2-5 performances against East Carolina and Ole Miss, homering in both. In a Big Ten Conference weak on position players, Richardson enters 2021 as the Big Ten best all-around.

It’s easy to fall in love with the tools here. Richardson is a great athlete at 6’2″ with plenty of twitchy strength, giving him the ability to impact the game in a multitude of ways. Plus speed makes him a threat on the basepaths and in the outfield, and it helps him get down the line quickly from the left side. His bat has a chance to be special, especially if he can prove his crazy 2020 line was not a mirage. The Indianapolis-area native has a knack for hard contact, consistently squaring the ball up for above average power and plenty of balls in the gaps, where his speed becomes an asset. His strong arm is another above average tool, and if he can refine his reads and routes, he could be a plus defensive center fielder. If not, he should be above average in right field either way.

The big ding in Richardson’s profile is plate discipline, and that’s an important one. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that leads to considerable swing and miss, and he rarely walks. It hasn’t hampered him yet, but scouts will be watching closely in 2021 now that his potent bat is no longer a secret. When Big Ten pitchers like the four above him on this list adjust to him, will he be able to adjust back? Will he at least chase less, so scouts can be more confident he’ll work pro pitching? Set to turn 22 on Day Three of the draft, he’ll be a little older than many other players in the class, but not by much.

6. RHP McCade Brown, Indiana

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 200 lbs. Born 8/15/2000. Hometown: Normal, IL

2019-2020: 0-2, 14.86 ERA, 2.85 WHIP, 11/13 K/BB in 6.2 IP.

After a brief hiatus, we’re back on the “towering pitchers without track record” theme, and McCade Brown takes it to the extreme. If you started off looking at the stats, you might be scratching your head to see Brown listed as the #6 prospect in the Big Ten. I mean, in two years with the program, Brown has pitched in just six games, tossed just 6.2 innings, and allowed eleven runs while walking thirteen. That’s a walk rate over 30%. But this kid is special, and we’re not here to scout the stat line.

Obviously, if he’s ranked this high with those kind of stats, it must be the stuff, right? Correct. At his best, Brown’s stuff is right up there with Seth Lonsway and Sean Burke for the best in the Big Ten. The fastball sits low to mid 90’s in short stints and can hit 96, with nice arm side run that makes it tough to square up. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, but it can be devastating when it’s on. His curveball can be an absolute hammer with late, deep tilt and eleven to five movement. In the video above, he rattles off some eye-popping ones. His slider can flash plus as well, with short, tight bite that comes on late. He rounds it out with a changeup that’s probably his fourth pitch.

All of that is great, of course, and but we’re not here to rank bullpen sessions. Brown has to put up some real numbers this year, and even before consistency comes into play, he has to improve on 30-grade command. The 6’6″ righty loses his arm slot often, tending to cast or yank his pitches and miss badly. Slight improvements to get to even 40-grade command could do wonders for his draft stock, but 30 won’t play on Day One. Then of course if he wants to be a pro starter, he needs to hold his stuff deep into games and show the ability to spin the ball on a consistent basis, not just on “on” days. Fortunately, our Illinoisan prodigy is young for the class and won’t turn 21 until a month after the draft, giving him that much more development time.

7. 1B Maxwell Costes, Maryland

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 215 lbs. Born 7/1999. Hometown: Baltimore, MD

2019-2020: 19 HR, .295/.444/.581, 4 SB, 61/44 K/BB in 73 games.

Maxwell Costes might not appeal to traditional scouts as a right-right 1B/LF type, but man, can this kid put on a show at the plate. He was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2019 when he slashed .266/.397/.547 with 15 home runs in 58 games, but that turned out to be his low point as a hitter. He slashed .380/.514/.789 with 15 home runs that summer in the Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League, then hit .432/.620/.750 with four home runs as a sophomore last year. Put those together, and you have 19 home runs and a .392/.543/.780 line over 57 games in a calendar year – the PGCBL isn’t the most elite summer league around, but you don’t luck into those kinds of numbers.

Costes is no toolshed, but he just hits. Built like a truck at 6’1″, he can absolutely smoke a baseball with brute strength and a loose swing from the right side. His raw power plays way up in games, with 34 home runs in college/summer ball so far, giving him some of the best in-game power is not just the Big Ten, but the college class as a whole. The Baltimore native is not just a one-tool player, as he’s been more than willing to take walks – and get hit – as pitchers stopped pitching to him. In the batters box, he’s been the complete package so far.

I’m going to throw a Brent Rooker comp on here. Rooker, like Costes, was a right-right corner bat that didn’t sign the first year he was eligible, and went back to school to prove his bat. Because of his lack of tools, Rooker had to absolutely explode at the plate to push himself into Day One draft consideration, and Costes may have to do the same without the benefit of SEC competition to show it’s “real.” He has the strong 2019 under his belt, but he didn’t face the strongest competition in the PGCBL or in 2020, and the Big Ten isn’t the strongest conference either. He’ll have to hit a lot to prove it, but I’m optimistic and I think he could be an impact hitter in pro ball.

8. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 200 lbs. Born 8/19/1997. Hometown: Cass City, MI

2017-2020: 10-15, 4.24 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 163/79 K/BB in 195.1 IP.

Mason Erla will be nearly 24 (!) on draft day, making him the oldest draft prospect I’ve ever written about. Erla, who is already relatively old for his class, was draft-eligible in 2019, but he was coming off a 5.49 ERA and 16% strikeout rate and went undrafted. 2020 was a completely different story, when he put up a 1.04 ERA and 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, including an absolute gem against Troy to end the season (7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 12 K). However, he went unselected in the shortened draft, and now the 23 year old is going to give it one more shot.

Erla’s exceptional 2020 was no fluke. Always more of a control/command guy more than a stuff guy, his fastball jumped into the low to mid 90’s, now topping out around 96. Like Seth Lonsway, the fastball plays well above its impressive velocity, coming from a low three quarters release that puts considerable ride on the pitch. By far, that fastball is now his best attribute. The secondary stuff is just that, secondary, with a solid-average tight curveball and a changeup, helped by above average command.

The 6’4″ right hander has a nice #4 starter profile with a plus fastball, two usable offspeed pitches, good command, and a sturdy frame. However, his age complicates things. If a drafting team wants to develop Erla as a starter, they may have to wait until he’s 26 or 27 to see him in the majors, and only as a back-end guy. Putting him in the bullpen, where he could pitch more effectively off that fastball, could help him move much more quickly and get there around age 25. Either way, I see him as a high floor, low ceiling type, and one who could be a big time money saver.

9. RHP Garrett Burhenn, Ohio State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 215 lbs. Born 9/12/1999. Hometown: Indianapolis, IN

2019-2020: 8-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 98/35 K/BB in 112.1 IP.

This is a complex one, but very interesting. Garrett Burhenn showed well in his freshman season in 2019, putting up a 3.96 ERA and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings, but a bad start vs Georgia Tech in 2020 caused his ERA to balloon to 8.02 despite a sharp 29/4 K/BB. Personally, I wasn’t a huge fan and originally left him off this list, but then after more data and digging, noting significant improvement during the shutdown. Let’s jump in.

During his career in Columbus, Burhenn has shown average stuff with a low 90’s fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He’s always pounded the strike zone, but he tended to get hit hard when his pitches caught too much plate. Since the shutdown, McRae noted that he substituted a curveball for his changeup, and he’s worked to increase the spin rates on all of his pitches. The results have been promising, as he now shows tighter breaking pitches while making his solid-average velocity play up. I’m not here to call him the next Bryce Jarvis, but those are promising developments.

Burhenn’s control is ahead of his command, and previously that left him as a “jack of all trades, master of none” type of arm. Now, if he can generate more swings and misses in the zone, he has a chance to play up to a #3 or #4 starter. I’m very curious to see how he comes out of the gate in 2021, with the chance to move quickly up draft boards by proving his new stuff is for real. Down the road, he’ll likely want to pick that changeup back up, and tightening his command in the strike zone will help as well. There will be a lot of eyes on him in 2021, that’s for sure.

10. RHP Willie Weiss, Michigan

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 3/3/2000. Hometown: Portland, OR

2019: 2-2, 2.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 50/32 K/BB in 39.1 IP.

We’ll close out with a sleeper pick. Willie Weiss was a key cog in that famous 2019 Michigan pitching staff, earning key innings in relief of current pros Tommy Henry (ARI), Karl Kauffmann (COL), and Jeff Criswell (OAK). In 27 appearances, he had a 2.97 ERA and a 50/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings as a true freshman, closing it out with a scoreless appearance against Vanderbilt in the CWS championship. However, a minor triceps injury sidelined him for the start of the 2020 season, and the pandemic meant he never got to work back in. Heading into 2021, Weiss has a lot to prove, but could work his way up draft boards in a hurry.

Weiss sat in the upper 80’s and scraped the low 90’s in high school, but there were reports of him hitting as high as 94-95 as a freshman at Michigan. He also flashes a sharp slider that can miss bats as well, and the two pitches helped him strike out 27.8% of his opponents. At this point, he needs to work on his changeup, which is his third pitch.

The fact that we haven’t seen Weiss since his freshman year means there could be significant untapped potential here. With two good pitches, a sturdy 6’3″ build, and plenty of big game experience, there are starter traits here. However, his closed off delivery can make it difficult to get back on line towards the plate, causing his arm slot to wander and miss spots. Even more important than developing the changeup at this point will be getting more consistent with that delivery, as it’s hard to feel comfortable projecting someone as a starter with 40 command. Michigan has a great track record of producing arms, and a cleaned up Weiss could make some noise in 2021.

Other Interesting Options

East Arms

I know baseball doesn’t use the divisional format, but we’ll go with football divisions to break up this section. At Maryland, where Sean Burke has plenty of draft buzz and Maxwell Costes has some eye-popping track record to his name, Sam Bello is a bit more of a sleeper. The 6’3″, 225 pound New Yorker is draft-eligible as a sophomore, coming off a short but successful freshman season where he struck out eleven and walked two over 6.2 strong innings. Built like a tank, he attacks hitters with a low 90’s fastball and a nice slider, commanding both pretty well. He has a lot to prove in 2021, but with plenty of on-paper starter traits, he might not be a sleeper anymore once he gets some Big Ten innings under his belt.

Behind Steven Hajjar and Willie Weiss, Michigan has another interesting option in Cameron Weston. The 6’1″, 200 pound sophomore from the Pittsburgh area is draft-eligible this year with an August 27th birthday, the very last day before the cutoff. He’s a fastball/splitter pitcher that sits in the low 90’s, with a clean delivery and starter’s built. On the docket for 2021, aside from building up some track record, will be sharpening his breaking ball into a usable offering.

Down south, Big Ten rival Ohio State has another interesting arm behind Seth Lonsway and Garrett Burhenn. Meanwhile, Jack Neely is a very different pitcher. The San Antonio native began his career at Texas, but put up a 14.90 ERA as a freshman and transferred to Iowa Western CC. There, he was about as dominant as you can be, striking out 17 and walking four over eleven shutout innings, allowing just one hit along the way. The towering 6’9″, 230 pound righty now comes to Ohio State with a low 90’s fastball that plays up due to tremendous extension, but the rest of his game needs a lot of work. Neely’s secondary stuff is fringy at best, and while his command took a step forward in 2020, it’s still well below average. Further improvement in either his breaking balls or command could bode very well for him in 2021.

East Bats

Our headliner in this group is Michigan catcher Jimmy Obertop. A top recruit from the St. Louis-area high school ranks, he’s draft-eligible as a sophomore after hitting .265/.375/.353 in eleven games. If you’re a college baseball fan, you might also recognize him from his viral ejection against Vanderbilt in his very first game. To this point, the ample strength he packs into his 6’1″, 220 pound frame is his best attribute. It gives him above average raw power to work with and a strong arm behind the plate, while a disciplined approach at the plate should help him make the most of it. However, he’s not the most athletic catcher in the draft, needing considerable refinement in his movement behind the plate. His power is also more a product of strength than bat speed, so he’ll need to prove himself against velocity.

A short trip across the middle of the state brings us to Michigan State‘s Zaid Walker. The Chicago-area native has had a nice start to his Spartan career, slashing .281/.305/.375 with a pair of home runs in 62 games, and he’s hoping for a breakout in 2021. Walker does a lot of things well, with a line drive bat, some power to tap into, speed, and a good arm. At this point, he lacks a true carrying tool, so putting it all together for a strong season in East Lansing in 2021 will be his ticket to louder draft buzz. Toning down his hyper-aggressive approach could aid that endeavor.

West Arms

Outside of the top ten, arguably the loudest stuff in the Big Ten draft class belongs to Illinois right hander Aidan Maldonado. The Twin Cities native has put up ugly numbers in Urbana-Champaign (6.28 ERA, 34/40 K/BB), but also looked great in the Cape Cod League (3.20 ERA, 32/7 K/BB), so he’s a bit of an enigma. At his best, he can touch 96 with his fastball and hold it in the mid 90’s for innings at a time, adding in a sharp, bat-missing slider. However, at other times, the stuff can flatten out and he can get hit hard. The inconsistency in his stuff is compounded by command that fluctuates between 30 and 45, and he’s a bit undersized a 6′, 170 lbs. Smoothing out the pronounced stabbing motion in the back of his delivery could help, but unless he gets much more consistent with everything, he’s likely a reliever.

JP Massey will get most of the attention at Minnesota, but two-way prospect Sam Ireland is a sleeper behind him. The Denver-area native was better as a hitter (.303/.361/.424) than as a pitcher (9.00 ERA, 10/8 K/BB) in his short freshman season, but a full 2021 will be more enlightening. On the mound, his fastball sits around 90 and can bump 92, complemented by an average slider and changeup. There is some power in his 6’4″ frame, though as a right/right corner bat, he’ll need to prove he can tap into it.

Out on the plains, Nebraska offers up a very interesting arm in Colby Gomes. The Cornhuskers’ closer in 2019, he was a starter in 2020 and didn’t fare as well. The Omaha native can sit in the low to mid 90’s with his fastball and adds a nice sharp slider, but to this point he hasn’t had much success in games (5.26 ERA, 24/15 K/BB). His delivery isn’t really conducive to starting, with very long arm action, a low three quarters arm slot, and a pronounced head whack, so I don’t expect him to put up big numbers in the rotation this year. He could be a real sleeper for a team looking to convert him back to relief.

West Bats

Handling Aidan Maldonado and that Illinois pitching staff will be Jacob Campbell, a Wisconsin native who has hit just .197/.303/.280 over two years with the Illini. He’s obviously a glove-first prospect that stands out for his blocking and receiving, so teams will be interested regardless of how he hits. That said, if he wants to be anything more than org depth, he has to take a step forward with the bat. He shows a nice, loose swing with some pop, but even though he doesn’t have a crazy amount of swing and miss, he just doesn’t find the barrel often enough to tap it. Incremental steps towards squaring the ball up more often could make him a solid backup.

The Illini will also have shortstop Branden Comia, fresh off a red hot .426/.526/.702 start to his 2020 season. A bit undersized at 5’10”, Comia has great feel for the barrel and has shown surprising gap and over the fence power at Illinois, but that hasn’t been the case in two summers in the Northwoods League (.200/.341/.270). He has a short swing that’s more geared towards line drives and ground balls, and his lack of production with wood bats makes it hard to project more than 40 or 45 power on him for the future. He’ll also want to cut down on his swing and miss a bit, but with a solid glove that will keep him in the middle infield, the bat will have some slack.

Out in Lincoln, Nebraska shortstop Spencer Schwellenbach has been one of the Big Ten more consistent hitters as of late. The Michigan native has a career .281/.407/.394 line with six home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 52/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, giving off a “high floor, low ceiling” vibe. He’s a patient hitter with some ambush power, though his swing can get a little loopy and the barrel isn’t always in the zone for long. That has led to a fringe-average hit tool where you’d like to see a bit better given his profile. A shortstop for now, he can make it work at the premium position but fits better at second base.