Monday, September 10, 2018

Top 2018 Minor League Pitchers

With the 2018 minor league season coming to a close, I have gathered the top hitting and pitching performers across the minor leagues. The selections for these awards were made regardless of prospect status or minor league level(s), though park and league environments were considered. Below are the pitcher awards.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Winner: RHP Michael King (New York Yankees)
11-5, 1.79 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 152/29 K/BB in 161.1 IP at High A, AA, and AAA
While predicting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win the position player award pre-2018 may not have been all that far fetched, Michael King's season here comes as a complete surprise. He was solid last year at Class A Greensboro (11-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), but he was also a 22 year old facing younger competition. The Rhode Island native and former 12th round pick out of Boston College in 2016 was traded to who I presume is his arch nemesis, the New York Yankees, before the 2018 season and he began the year with High A Tampa. In seven starts, King went 1-3 but with a 1.79 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 45 and walking 10 in 40.1 innings. Quickly promoted to AA Trenton just before his 23rd birthday, he kept on rolling by going 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 12 games (11 starts), striking out 76 and walking just 13 in 82 innings. The Yankees gave him another promotion on up to AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he put up six of his best starts of the season: 4-0, 1.15 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 31/6 K/BB in 39 innings. Together, that's a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and 152 strikeouts to just 29 walks over 161.1 innings, and an elevation in prospect status from "possible fifth starter" to likely 2019 MLB contributor. Throughout the season, he allowed more than three earned runs in just one of his 25 games (24 starts), and just three times all year did he allow more than two earned runs. Perhaps his best start of the season came on June 30th in AA, when he tossed a complete game, three hit, no walk shutout against strong New Hampshire (Blue Jays AA) while striking out eleven Fisher Cats. He also came an out away from a complete game shutout against Daytona Beach (Reds High A) back on May 9th and threw six perfect innings against Syracuse (Nationals AAA) on August 29th. The only knock on his big season may be the high number of unearned runs (eleven), which put his RA9 at a more human 2.40.

Runner-Up: LHP David Parkinson (Philadelphia Phillies)
11-1, 1.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 141/35 K/BB in 124.1 IP at Class A and High A
The Phillies took Parkinson in the 12th round of the 2017 draft out of Ole Miss (though they did go over slot by signing him for $250,000, roughly that of a sixth round pick), and they assigned him to Class A Lakewood to begin the season. It was a rather conservative assignment and he proved it by just dominating the league in his 17 starts, going 8-1 with a 1.51 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 115/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. When they finally promoted him up to the more age-appropriate High A Clearwater Threshers, he somehow got even better, 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 29 innings. He never allowed more than four earned runs in any single start and allowed more than two in just three of his 22 games (21 starts), giving his teams the chance to win every time he was out there. From May 14th to June 25th, while back in Class A, he tossed 35.2 consecutive scoreless innings (though he allowed three unearned runs on May 28th), including possibly his best performance of the season when he shut down Hagerstown (Nationals Class A) one just one hit and no walks over seven shutout innings, picking up nine strikeouts. Like King, he did allow eleven unearned runs, though seven of them came in one appearance on April 23rd. With the unearned runs, his RA9 is 2.24, but he falls below King because King threw 37 more innings, had a much lower WHIP (0.91 to 1.01), and because Parkinson pitched his entire season in pitcher-friendly parks.

Honorable Mention: RHP Parker Dunshee (Oakland Athletics)
13-6, 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 163/31 K/BB in 150.2 IP at High A and AA
Dunshee has been absolutely un-hittable since he was drafted in the seventh round in 2017 out of Wake Forest as a senior. After getting roughed up a little bit in his first pro game (consider it a warm-up), he tossed 38.1 shutout innings in Short Season ball on just 15 hits, eight walks, and 45 strikeouts (0.60 WHIP). However, this write up is about 2018, not 2017. To begin this season, he was assigned to Stockton in the High A California League, a notorious hitters' league where nearly every park is a hitters' park. Apparently nobody told Dunshee, as he went 6-2 with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 82/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings, earning a promotion up to AA Midland in the slightly pitcher-friendly Texas League. His numbers got even better, as he went 7-4 with a 2.01 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 81/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings. Perhaps what was most remarkable about his season was his consistency, as even during his run through the California League, he never allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 12 games (10 starts), even when he had to pitch in Lancaster, arguably the top hitters' park in the minors. In AA, he was tagged for four runs on July 7th (albeit in eight innings), but he closed out the season on a remarkable run that saw him go 6-1 with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over his final seven starts, striking out 45 and walking 11 in 48 innings. Arguable his best start of the season came in his second to last, when he tossed 7.1 shutout, no-hit innings against Corpus Christi (Astros AA) while walking two and striking out seven. Now, if you take out that first pro appearance (we'll call it a warm-up), Dunshee's career minor league numbers are as follows: 14-6, 1.86 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 208/39 K/BB in 191 innings, 70 of which came in the very tough California League.

Others

RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, 7-3, 2.10 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 120/8 K/BB in 90 IP at High A and AA)
Paddack falls to fourth on this list because he only threw 90 innings, but his return from missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery has been pitch-for-pitch as good as anybody's. He also had to navigate the High A California League and handled it exceptionally well (4-1, 2.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 83/4 K/BB), then was even better in AA (3-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 37/4 K/BB). The season also began with 24.2 consecutive shutout innings. At this point, the Austin, Texas native's career numbers rival Dunshee's: 13-6, 1.82 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 230/20 K/BB in 177.2 innings.

RHP Denyi Reyes (Red Sox, 12-5, 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 145/19 K/BB in 155.2 IP at Class A and High A
Reyes mostly earns this spot with his amazing performance in Class A Greenville: 10-3, 1.89 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 122/13 K/BB in 123.2 innings. Promoted to High A Salem, he maintained some dominance, going 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over six starts, striking out 23 and walking six in 32 innings. Overall, few minor leaguers were better at keeping runners off the bases as well as keeping them from scoring, though he did allow twelve unearned runs to bring his RA9 up to 2.66. At no point in the season did he allow more than three earned runs in any of his 27 games (24 starts). Like Dunshee and Paddack, his career numbers also have the wow factor: 32-7, 2.12 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 286/33 K/BB in 327.1 innings.

LHP Patrick Sandoval (Angels, 11-1, 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 145/29 K/BB, 122.1 IP at Class A, High A, and AA)
Sandoval was a breakout prospect this year who pitched for four different minor league teams at three different levels, doing exceptionally at all four. He saw success at Class A Quad Cities (7-1, 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 71/11 K/BB), High A Buies Creek (2-0, 2.74, 0.70, 26/4), High A Inland Empire (1-0, 0.00, 0.82, 21/6) and AA Mobile (1-0, 1.37, 1.02, 27/8). Together, that gave him a 2.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP as he struck out over 30% of his opponents along the way.

LHP Zac Lowther (Orioles, 8-4, 2.14 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 151/35 K/BB in 123.2 IP at Class A and High A)
The Orioles struggle to develop pitching prospects, but Lowther has been a success story so far. Drafted last year in the Competitive Balance Round B out of Xavier, he put up a 1.66 ERA at Short Season Aberdeen last year before beginning 2018 at Class A Delmarva. There, he made a mockery of the league by going 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 51/9 K/BB over 31 innings before a promotion to High A Frederick. He kept on rolling there, going 5-3 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP while striking out 100 and walking 26 in 92.2 innings. That brings his career minor league ERA and WHIP to 2.02 and 0.94, respectively.

RHP Rico Garcia (Rockies, 13-9, 2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 162/42 K/BB in 167 IP at High A and AA)
Garcia's numbers are better than they look on the surface. He started at High A Lancaster, which is the most extreme hitters' park in the most extreme hitters' league in the minors, yet he still went a respectable 7-7 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 101 and walking 22 in 100 innings. It showed in his splits, with a 6.11 ERA at home and a 1.95 ERA on the road despite pitching in mostly hitters' parks even on the road. Up at AA Hartford in a more neutral environment, his numbers looked much better, as he went 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 67 innings, striking out 61 to 20 walks. His ability to post a sub-3.00 ERA for the season despite pitching nearly two thirds of it as a member of the Lancaster JetHawks is pretty notable.

Bonus Reliever

Austen Williams (Nationals, 3-3, 1.19 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 89/17 K/BB in 68 IP at AA and AAA)
I wanted to put a spot in here for a reliever, as starters (rightly) get all the glory in awards like this, but Nationals' prospect Austen Williams had a year to remember from the bullpen. He had a huge year as a starter in 2015 (2.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP across three levels), but he stalled in 2016 (5.45 ERA) and 2017 (5.52) before transitioning to the bullpen for 2018. He has taken off in that role, beginning with an exceptional run through the AA Eastern League (1.39 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 69/13 K/BB in 51.2 innings) before a promotion to AAA Syracuse. He was even better there, posting a 0.55 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 20/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.1 innings. He went multiple innings in most of his relief appearances and had some pretty great games. His best run of the year came sandwiched around his promotion from AA to AAA, as from July 24th to August 13th, he tossed 11.2 shutout innings on no hits, one walk, and 15 strikeouts. You read that correctly: just one baserunner, a walk, in 11.2 innings.

Saturday, September 8, 2018

Top 2018 Minor League Position Players

With the 2018 minor league season coming to a close, I have gathered the top hitting and pitching performers across the minor leagues. The selections for these awards were made regardless of prospect status or minor league level(s), though park and league environments were considered. Below are the position player awards, pitcher awards coming soon.

Minor League Position Player of the Year

Winner: OF Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays)
20 HR, .381/.437/.636, 3 SB, 194 wRC+ in 95 games at GCL, High A, AA, and AAA
This one, while not a no-brainer, was a pretty easy choice. The teenager had a great year last year between Class A and High A, slashing .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs as an 18 year old, but this year has been a different story entirely. Beginning at AA New Hampshire, he slashed a straight up unbelievable .402/.449/.671 with 14 home runs and nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (27) over 61 games. Promoted to AAA Buffalo towards the end of the season and after he returned from injury, he kept on hitting, slashing .336/.414/.564 with six home runs and more walks (15) than strikeouts (10) in 30 games. Overall, when you include his four game rehab stint, he slashed .381/.437/.636 with 20 home runs in 95 games, adding 29 doubles and a triple. At no point during the season did he seem challenged, showcasing power, hitting ability, and plate discipline at exceptional levels. Interestingly, he was the only player outside the hitters' leagues (California League, Pacific Coast League) to slug over .600, and he did it with an on-base percentage over .400. The only reason he's still in the minors is so the Blue Jays can control his service time, but expect him in Toronto early in 2019, shortly after his 20th birthday, and he's the early favorite for the 2019 Rookie of the Year Award.

Runner-Up: 1B Nathaniel Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays)
27 HR, .330/.416/.568, 1 SB, 178 wRC+ in 130 games at High A, AA, and AAA
Between Nathaniel, his brother Josh, and Brandon (unrelated), the Rays have three highly regarded Lowe's in their farm system. Brandon and Josh had more fanfare coming into the season, with Brandon coming off a big 2017 and Josh being a first round pick from the 2016 draft. However, Nathaniel, who was taken in the 13th round out of Mississippi State in 2016 and who slashed just .274/.373/.388 between Class A and High A last year, had the best season out of all of them. Beginning at High A Charlotte, he simply mashed in his 51 games and slashed .356/.432/.588 with 10 home runs and a nice 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio. After a promotion to AA Montgomery, he got even better, slashing .340/.444/.606 with 13 home runs and a 30/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games. A second promotion to AAA Durham ensued, where his bat finally cooled a little, slashing .260/.327/.460 with four home runs and a 27/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 28 games. Still, with 27 home runs and a .330/.416/.568 slash line over a full season, he put forward the most cumulative offense in all of minor league baseball (113 weighted runs created), and he has moved ahead of his younger brother Josh on the Rays prospect charts, though Brandon also had a productive season and is now the top Lowe.

Honorable Mention: OF Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins)
20 HR, .348/.392/.578, 4 SB, 172 wRC+ in 130 games at Class A and High A
Second place for this award was really a toss-up, and while Lowe ultimately came out on top, you could make a very good argument for Kirilloff as position player who had the second best season in the minors. Drafted in the first round out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in 2016, he missed the entire 2017 season with Tommy John surgery and he was expected to work his way back relatively slowly in 2018. Starting off at Class A Cedar Rapids, the 20 year old instead slashed .333/.391/.607 with 13 home runs and a 47/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games, putting together an excellent 176 wRC+ and forcing a promotion to High A Fort Myers. There, he didn't miss a beat, slashing .362/.393/.550 with seven home runs and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio in another 65 games, good for a 168 wRC+. All told, he hit 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs, slashing .348/.392/.578, his 73 extra base hits and 296 total bases leading the minors and his 111 weighted runs created falling second only to Lowe. Over his first two postseason games in High A, he has collected seven hits, including a home run, in nine at bats, which would bring his season's slash line up to .355/.398/.587 if it were included.

Others

2B Vidal Brujan (Rays, 9 HR, .320/.403/.459, 55 SB, 149 wRC+ at Class A and High A)
Brujan may not have hit for much power, but when you get on base at a clip above .400 and steal 55 bases, that's worth taking notice of. Throw in his gap power (25 doubles, seven triples) and his nine home runs despite playing 27 games in the pitcher-friendly High A Florida State League, and Brujan was a complete player this year.

OF Eloy Jimenez (White Sox, 22 HR, .337/.384/.577, 0 SB, 168 wRC+ at AA and AAA)
One of the game's top offensive prospects, Jimenez hit well in AA (.317/.368/.556) before taking off in AAA, slashing .355/.399/.597 to bring his total line to .337/.384/.577, showing some of the best raw power in all of minor league baseball while still getting the bat on the ball regularly. All that keeps him from ranking higher is his .384 on base percentage, which is very good but falls shy of other players on this list.

OF Michael Reed (Braves, 11 HR, .342/.453/.520, 10 SB, 179 wRC+ at AA and AAA)
Reed is the least well-known player here (except for possibly Brujan if you're not caught up with the latest prospect buzz), but he actually led all of minor league baseball with a .453 on base percentage. He hit for average power and stole a few bases, but the incredible OBP was enough to land him up here.

3B Taylor Ward (Angels, 14 HR, .349/.446/.531, 18 SB, 167 wRC+ at AA and AAA)
Ward had a similar season to Reed, but while his numbers look better on the surface, he lands just below due to his playing 60 games in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League. The .446 on-base percentage was second only to Reed, and he too was able to hit for some power and swipe a few bags.

OF Kyle Tucker (Astros, 24 HR, .332/.400/.590, 20 SB, 155 wRC+ at AAA)
Tucker's numbers look better on the surface, combining a .400 on base percentage with a slugging percentage near .600, but he played all 100 of his games in the hitter friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, so he's bumped down a hair. Still, you can't argue with the production, and he's the only 20-20 player on this list.

Bonus
OF Juan Soto (Nationals, 14 HR, .362/.462/.757, 3 SB, 232 wRC+ at Class A, High A, and AA)
Juan Soto played just 39 games during his meteoric rise through the minors this year, but he made them count; he homered 14 times (more than once every three games) while getting on base at a .462 clip and slugging .757. Over a full season, those would have been Barry Bonds at the heart of the Steroid Era numbers. Jeez. Guess we'll have to settle for a strong NL Rookie of the Year case as a 19 year old.