End of Season Awards: MVP

Below are my picks for the AL and NL MVP's. These are my picks, not predictions

American League Most Valuable Player

Winner: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 52 HR, 114 RBI, .284/.422/.627 slash, .430 wOBA, 173 wRC+, 9 SB, 8.2 fWAR

One of the greatest rookie seasons in history came to a close with the end of the regular season, with Aaron Judge setting the rookie record with 52 home runs in 155 games for the Yankees. It took him just 82 games to reach 30 home runs, then after hitting just seven over his next 48 games, he finished with 15 in his final 25 games get the Yankees to the Wild Card. His .185/.353/.326 August, which included just three home runs, knocked him out of the top spot for MVP contention, but his September turned back all the doubters when he slashed .311/.463/.889 with 15 home runs, the 15 home runs and .889 slugging percentage being his highest marks for any month. He may have finished with 208 strikeouts, but when he hit the ball, it was going somewhere, as he slugged 1.018 on balls he actually made contact with. For reference, that's an expected value of more than one base just for making contact. When everything is put together, Judge the American League in home runs (52), runs scored (128), walks (127), and fWAR (8.2), all by surprisingly wide margins. The next best in each of those stats, respectively, were Khris Davis (43 HR), Jose Altuve (112 runs), Edwin Encarnacion (104 walks), and Altuve (7.5 fWAR). Mike Trout was able to top Judge in most rate stats, so Judge's .422 on-base percentage, .627 slugging percentage, 1.049 OPS, .430 wOBA, and 173 wRC+ were just behind Trout, but Judge gets the edge due playing 41 more games than his counterpart.

Runner-up: Jose Altuve (Houston Astros): 24 HR, 81 RBI, .346/.410/.547 slash, .405 wOBA, 160 wRC+, 32 SB, 7.5 fWAR

For much of the second half of the season, Altuve was engaged in a race with the slumping Aaron Judge for the AL MVP Award, and even looked like a frontrunner for stretches. However, Judge caught fire again in September, and Altuve's relatively pedestrian final month (.296/.390/.442, 3 HR) allowed Judge to take back over. This takes nothing away from the monster season that Altuve had, as the 5'5" second baseman proved  in hits (204) and batting average (.346) while also stealing 32 bases and knocking 24 home runs. Much of that was buoyed by a stretch of hitting between June 27th and July 28th that can be described as nothing short of insane. Over that 24 game stretch, Altuve slashed .510/.549/.765 with four home runs and nine stolen bases, raising his slash line from .319/.393/.521 to .369/.433/.585. At least in my book, it is a second straight season of just missing the award, but if he keeps hitting like this, he will win one eventually.

Honorable Mention: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels): 33 HR, 72 RBI, .306/.442/.629 slash, .437 wOBA, 181 wRC+, 22 SB, 6.9 fWAR

Had Trout played a full season, he likely would have beaten out Aaron Judge for his third AL MVP Award. Unfortunately, a thumb injury forced him to miss nearly two months, and playing in 114 games, he was "only" able to be the third most valuable player in the AL. In those 114 games, though, he was a one-man wrecking crew, leading the AL in most rate stats, including on-base percentage (.442), slugging percentage (.629), OPS (1.071), wOBA (.437), and wRC+ (181). Additionally, he finished third in fWAR (6.9) and walks (94) despite playing 40+ fewer games than the players ahead of him. He did this all with virtually no protection in the lineup (hence the 94 walks, or an 18.5% rate), creating his own production and punishing opposing teams. He also posted his second straight 20-20-20-.400 season (HR, SB, 2B, OBP) and the third of his career (would be fourth if not for a .399 OBP in 2012). He now has 54.4 career fWAR, 156th all time and easily the most among players with fewer than 1000 games (next is 1880's second baseman Fred Dunlap at 39.5).

Just missed: Corey Kluber (18-4, 2.25 ERA, 0.87 WHIP), Jose Ramirez (29 HR, .318/.374/.583, 6.6 fWAR), Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP)

National League Most Valuable Player

Winner: Giancarlo Stanton (Miami Marlins): 59 HR, 132 RBI, .281/.376/.631 slash, .410 wOBA, 156 wRC+, 2 SB, 6.9 fWAR

As it turns out, our two MVP's are very similar players. In fact, Aaron Judge was frequently compared to Giancarlo Stanton as a "best case scenario" as he was rising through the minors, and look what we've got. As it turns out, Stanton had a pretty fantastic season in his own right, cracking 59 home runs in a pitchers' park while setting career highs in every offensive category except walks, batting average, and on-base percentage. Stanton led the National League in home runs (59), RBI (132), and slugging percentage (.631), meanwhile finishing second in fWAR (6.9), wRC+ (156), OPS (1.007), and runs scored (123) and third in wOBA (.410). In addition, he did so in Marlins Park, which isn't the most hitter-friendly venue, didn't have a significant amount of lineup protection outside Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich, and played solid outfield defense, saving runs with his cannon arm. Perhaps the most notable piece of his season was a 25 game stretch from August 4th to August 29th, when he cracked 18 home runs, drove in 36, scored 27 runs, and slashed .387/.532/1.032 to place himself in the MVP race. Despite slashing just .245/.355/.509 with eight home runs in September/October, he was able to hold on in the absence of Bryce Harper, combining some of the best offense in baseball with enough defense to earn the MVP award.

Runner-up: Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): 36 HR, 100 RBI, .320/.454/.578 slash, .428  wOBA, 165 wRC+, 5 SB, 6.6 fWAR

Nobody in baseball hit like Joey Votto this year. If he provided any defensive value at all, he'd be the easy MVP, but as a first baseman in a hitters' park, he'll take the runner-up slot. Votto this year led the NL in games played (all 162), walks (134), on-base percentage (.454), OPS (1.032), wOBA (.428), and wRC+ (165), being as close to a machine at the plate as you can get. This is the third time in his career he has tallied more than 130 walks in a season, but although walks are his calling card, he does much more. When he was actually swinging, the Reds first baseman cracked 36 home runs and 34 doubles, slugged .578, and struck out just over once every other game (83 total). It actually took him a little bit of time to get going this year, as he slashed .237/.333/.539 with six home runs through his first 21 games. Then, in 141 games from April 26th onwards, he slashed .333/.472/.584 with 30 home runs, a pace nobody else in baseball could keep up with.

Honorable Mention: Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals): 25 HR, 100 RBI, .301/.403/.533 slash, .394 wOBA, 142 wRC+, 7 SB, 6.9 fWAR

The National League's fWAR leader isn't Stanton, Votto, Blackmon, or Bryant, but Anthony Rendon. By combining excellent offense and defense, his numbers fit Fangraphs just right to make him, according to their data evaluation, the most valuable player in the NL. I don't fully trust their defensive evaluation, but Rendon had a darn good season. Sparked by arguably the greatest single-game performance of the season on April 30th, Rendon posted an on-base percentage north of .400 while adding power (25 HR, 41 doubles) and amazing defense at third base. As of the morning of April 30th, his season actually wasn't going too well, as he was slashing .226/.316/.250 without a home run through the season's first 22 games. Then, against the Mets in game 22, he cracked out six hits: two singles, a double, and three home runs, while scoring five runs and driving in ten. From that game on, he slashed .316/.420/.590 with 25 home runs over 126 games, of course with some of the best defense in the league at third base. Rendon was one major reason that when potential MVP Bryce Harper went down in August, the Nationals were able to keep hitting and winning in his absence (with a shoutout to Ryan Zimmerman).

Just missed: Charlie Blackmon (37 HR, .331/.399/.601, 6.5 fWAR), Kris Bryant (29 HR, .295/.409/.537, 6.7 fWAR), Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)

First Half Awards

AL MVP: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.

After a fairly miserable debut in 2016 (.179/.263/.345), Judge has been unstoppable in his first full season, slashing .329/.448/.691 with 30 home runs through 84 games, already setting the Yankees rookie home run record and winning a Home Run Derby. His 197 wRC+ shows that he's creating nearly twice as many runs as the league average hitter, and although he has struck out in 29.8% of his plate appearances, he has also walked in 16.7%, providing value in more than just home run power. His outside-the-zone swing percentage is down from 33.6% last year to 24.1% this year, showing sustainable success. Mark McGwire holds the rookie record with 49 home runs, but Judge is just 19 away and could easily become the first rookie ever to hit 50 in a season. His on-base percentage sits at .448 right now, and even if he follows Steamer's fairly pessimistic projection and posts a .352 OBP for the rest of the season, he'll still finish at .408, so he's the whole offensive package. He's been worth 5.5 fWAR this year, well ahead of second-place Jose Altuve's 4.4.

Runner-up: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians): 17 HR, 48 RBI, .332 AVG, 10 SB, 157 wRC+.

After Judge, there are a lot of players who have produced about the same amount this year, but I chose to put Ramirez in the runner-up spot because of the ridiculous amount of lineup protection in Houston, where George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa all could easily fill this spot. Ramirez has put up his own crazy-good numbers without the same amount of protection in the lineup, slashing .332/.388/.601 with 17 home runs and 27 doubles through 86 games. Adding ten stolen bases and good defense at third base, he has been worth 3.9 fWAR, holding up more than his fair share of the responsibility as part of the Indians young dynamic duo with Francisco Lindor. He's been especially hot as of late, slashing .401/.446/.774 since June 3rd, spearheading the Indians' run to the top of the AL Central.

Honorable mentions: Jose Altuve (13 HR, .347 AVG, 18 SB, 161 wRC+), George Springer (27 HR, .310 AVG, 2 SB, 164 wRC+), Carlos Correa (20 HR, .325 AVG, 0 SB, 161 wRC+), Mike Trout (16 HR, .337 AVG, 10 SB, 208 wRC+)

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): 20 HR, 65 RBI, .325 AVG, 2 SB, 161 wRC+.

Bryce has been producing back at his 2015 levels, slashing .325/.431/.590 in the middle of a lineup that has been one of the most prolific in baseball. He sits second to Joey Votto in just about every offensive category, but because he adds value with good defense in right field, he truly contributes to the Nationals in every way he can. He slumped a bit in late May and into early June, but he seems to have rebounded and is slashing .433/.528/.700 in the month of July, currently sitting on an eight game hitting streak. Overall, he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.

Runner-up: Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): 26 HR, 68 RBI, .315 AVG, 3 SB, 167 wRC+.

Votto's edge over Paul Goldschmidt is razor thin, but I think he has just enough to take the runner-up spot, slashing .315/.427/.631 with 26 home runs through 88 games. Arguably the closest thing this generation of baseball players has to Ted Williams, Votto has walked in 16.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 10.9%. He hits for power, he gets on base, he makes the hitters around him better, and he's overall one of the very first bats I'd pick to be in my lineup this year. What's even crazier is that his .291 BABIP says that he may have been the recipient of bad luck so far, especially considering his career rate is .354, though his hard hit rate and soft hit rates aren't quite as stellar as they have been in the past, so who knows. What we do know is that Votto leads the NL in home runs (26), slugging percentage (.631), OPS (1.058), wOBA (.432), and wRC+ (167), and that he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.

Honorable mentions: Paul Goldschmidt (20 HR, .312 AVG, 13 SB, 153 wRC+), Daniel Murphy (14 HR, .342 AVG, 1 SB, 146 wRC+), Justin Turner (10 HR, .377 AVG, 2 SB, 183 wRC+), Ryan Zimmerman (19 HR, .330 AVG, 1 SB, 148 wRC+).

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox): 11-4, 2.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 178/22 K/BB.

During his time with the White Sox, Sale bounced back and forth between "very good" and "excellent," and when he was shipped over to a tougher division and a tougher home park in Boston, it was expected that his numbers would revert back to "very good," at least at first, as had happened with David Price. However, Sale had no intentions of letting that happen, instead putting himself on pace for what may be the best season of his career with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He has struck out 35.9% of the batters he has faced, which is a ridiculous number for a starter, meanwhile walking only 4.4%. He has been surprisingly consistent, as you might be surprised to hear he has just three scoreless starts this season, but he hasn't been blown up in any, either. His best start came on April 20th, when he struck out 13 Blue Jays over eight shutout innings, allowing four hits and walking just one. His worst start came in his return to Chicago, when the White Sox touched him up for six runs (five earned) over five innings, but he still struck out nine.

Runner-up: Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros): 9-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 69/18 K/BB.

Keuchel has only made eleven starts due to injuries, but no pitcher other than Chris Sale has been able to step in and firmly take over this runner-up spot, with even the best pitchers' ERA's creeping up close to 3.00. Over a month ago, when Keuchel made his most recent start, he was the clear front runner for the AL Cy Young Award, holding a 1.67 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just 48 hits allowed in 75.2 innings. He has given up more than two runs in just one of his eleven starts, when manager A.J. Hinch left him in too long and he gave up three runs in the ninth inning while vying for a complete game. Other than that easily avoidable bad-on-paper start, he is 9-0 with a 1.20 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. When he's on the mound, he's easily been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year, and we're eagerly awaiting his imminent return.

Honorable mentions: Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), Jason Vargas (12-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Ervin Santana (10-6, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), Carlos Carrasco (10-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals): 10-5, 2.10 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 173/27 K/BB.

Slowly and steadily, Max Scherzer has put up an amazing season. His 0.78 WHIP is lower than any full National League season since 1876, and if he can maintain the pace he is on, it will be the second lowest in MLB history, trailing only Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000. He's also leading the MLB in ERA this year at 2.10, enough to give him the rare edge over Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young. He has absolutely dominated almost every time out, reaching double digits in strikeouts in 11 of his 18 starts and striking out at least one batter per inning in all 18. In terms of consistency, his worst month in terms of both ERA and WHIP was April, when he went 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, striking out 40 batters in 33.2 innings. Not bad for your worst month.

Runner-up: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): 14-2, 2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 159/22 K/BB.

We're seeing classic Clayton Kershaw, as he is in the middle of posting his fifth straight season with an ERA below 2.20 and a WHIP below 0.95. Like Scherzer, the highest ERA he has posted in any month was a 2.43 mark in May, and he has shown the uncanny ability to bounce back from tough starts and keep them from snowballing. He has only allowed more than two runs in a game four times this year, but in his subsequent start after each of those games, he is 4-0 with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP, striking out 39 in 28.2 innings. Nobody gets to Kershaw two starts in a row, and that's part of what makes him great.

Honorable mentions: Zack Greinke (11-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), Robbie Ray (8-4, 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), Gio Gonzalez (7-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.

See MVP write-up. If Judge gets his projected 252 additional plate appearances this year (Steamer) and literally strikes out in every single one, he'd still slash .176/.290/.370 with 30 home runs, which would still theoretically have him in the running.

Runner-up: Andrew Benintendi (Boston Red Sox): 12 HR, 51 RBI, .279 AVG, 9 SB, 106 wRC+.

Benintendi won't catch Judge, but he's having a fine season in his own right. Through 82 games, Benintendi, who just over two years ago was still suiting up for the Arkansas Razorbacks, is slashing .279/.357/.446 with 12 home runs and nine stolen bases, showcasing an all around game that will be hugely valuable for the Red Sox in the coming years. If you look closer, though, he's actually having a better season than the numbers say. He had a horrible slump in which he went hitless in seven straight games from May 10th to the 17th, totaling 26 at bats, but outside of that, he's been putting up All Star numbers: all 12 of his home runs (obviously) with a .305/.375/.487 slash line. With his low .299 BABIP, he'll likely finish the season with better numbers than he has right now. He has been worth 1.4 fWAR this year.

Honorable mentions: Trey Mancini (14 HR, 44 RBI, .312 AVG, 1 SB, 133 wRC+), Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), Yulieski Gurriel (11 HR, 44 RBI, .297 AVG, 1 SB, 115 wRC+), Danny Barnes (2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)

NL Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): 25 HR, 58 RBI, .261 AVG, 5 SB, 145 wRC+.

While Bellinger hasn't quite dominated the NL the way Aaron Judge has dominated the AL, he's been quite amazing in his 70 games, slashing .261/.342/.619 with 25 home runs. He may not hit .300 to back up his power, but he has supplemented his average .261 batting average with 33 walks, good for 11.3% of his plate appearances and a .342 on base percentage. Of course, when you're slugging over .600 with those 25 home runs, anything more than an acceptable OBP is just a bonus. He already has six multi-homer games. From May 5th to June 25th, a span of just 48 games, he blasted 21 home runs. His uppercut is, in my opinion, baseball's most aesthetically pleasing swing, and when you add in his great defense, he's a complete player. He's been worth 2.3 fWAR this season.

Runner-up: Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): 9-7, 3.77 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 65/41 K/BB.

Freeland has been an enigma this year. The 8th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Freeland has kept his ERA under 4.00 despite pitching half his games in Coors Field, an extremely difficult place to be a pitcher. Oddly enough, he has been way better at Coors (5-4, 3.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) than he has been on the road (4-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Additionally, he's somehow getting it done with a low strikeout rate (14%) and a high walk rate (8.8%) that should theoretically hurt him in an environment where any ball put in play is dangerous. He has induced 1.8 ground outs for every fly out, so he does have that going in his favor. In his final start before the All Star Break, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the White Sox and finished with 8.1 shutout innings on one hit, three walks, and nine strikeouts at Coors Field.

Honorable mentions: Jesus Aguilar (9 HR, 34 RBI, .294 AVG, 0 SB, 131 wRC+), Josh Bell (16 HR, 44 RBI, .239 AVG, 2 SB, 107 wRC+), Antonio Senzatela (9-3, 4.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), Ian Happ (13 HR, 31 RBI, .257 AVG, 3 SB, 122 wRC+).

2017 Draft Preview: Nick Pratto

1B Nick Pratto (Huntington Beach HS, CA): 6'1", 195 lbs, born 10/6/1998.

Overview

Hit: 65. Power: 50. Run: 45. Throw: 55. Field: 60.

A teammate of fellow top 50 draft prospect and two-way player Hagen Danner at Huntington Beach High School in California, Pratto has positioned himself for a likely top 20 selection on Monday. Coming into the spring, like his teammate, scouts were split on whether his future lay on the mound or at the plate, but unlike Danner, he has clearly established himself as a hitter. Among high schoolers in this draft, Pratto has the cleanest swing, the best hit tool, and the best pure hitting ability around. He has been tied to the Yankees a lot, and will likely go somewhere in the teens to early 20's range.

Strengths
Pratto shows an extremely advanced feel for the game at a young age, which helps him have the high floor typically attributed to college players while still maintaining the high ceiling that naturally comes with high schoolers. He's hit over power at this point, as unlike other top prep players such as Jordon Adell and Austin Beck, scouts have no worries about his ability to hit high level pitching. He controls the strike zone, hits his pitch when he gets it, and has been adding power as of late. He has a very clean swing that could maybe be tweaked to stay in the zone just a bit longer, and his power breakout early this spring has caused the most optimistic scouts to think of Joey Votto. Obviously, Votto's feel for hitting/power combination is once-in-a-generation, and it wouldn't be realistic to project Pratto as the next Votto, but anything can happen with high school guys and the profiles match up. Afterall, Votto was the 44th overall pick in 2002, and Pratto could go 30 spots higher. He's also athletic around the bag at first base with an above average arm, so he will be able to impact the game on defense as well.

Weaknesses
Though Pratto himself carries remarkably little risk for a high schooler, his demographic, that of a high school first baseman, is an inherently risky one. First basemen absolutely have to hit in order to advance, and though Pratto is a pretty safe bet to do so, he has little margin for error. Throw in that he's likely not a 30 home run guy, and he really has little margin for error. I, along with most scouts, am optimistic about Pratto's future power production, but his power did slump a bit in the second half of his high school ceiling. The main takeaway from this draft profile: if Pratto hits merely to expectations, he could be a star. If he doesn't, his value evaporates.