I've been looking forward to this one for a while now. The Indians develop pitching as well as any team in baseball, so they took 19 pitchers in 21 picks, many of whom I think they can turn into absolute studs. Though they're a team known for drafting younger players, both in terms of high school vs college as well as relative to their class, they went on the older side here, with five of their first six picks set to turn 22 before the minor league season is done (and nine in total). There are a few reclamation projects here, a few guys just waiting for a breakout, and a couple who have already broken out, but I think every one of the pitchers they drafted fits perfectly into their system. I haven't seen the Indians mentioned among the top draft classes this year, but this looks like a sleeper to me to look fantastic ten years from now. I could easily see this class bringing on the next wave of rotation talent to follow the Shane Bieber/Mike Clevinger/Aaron Civale/Zach Plesac group that has anchored the staff as of late. I can't pick a favorite because I like them all, and I want to write about all of them but I just don't have the time with 22 more draft reviews to get through.
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1-23: RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina. My rank: #17.
Scouts have been waiting and waiting on a Gavin Williams breakout for years, and they finally got it in 2021. He showed a massive right arm when he was a high schooler in the Fayetteville, North Carolina prep ranks, but made it to campus at East Carolina and couldn't quite find his footing through his first three years, putting up a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings in that frame. Finally healthy and on the mound for a full season in 2021, he put it all together for a 1.88 ERA and a 130/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings, closing it off with a thirteen strikeout performance in a super regional bout with Vanderbilt. The 6'6" righty has run his fastball up to 101 in the past, but sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90's deep into starts without much effort. His curveball has always shown huge depth, but it was tighter this year and looks like a plus pitch at times. He's also shown feel for an above average changeup for years now, and in 2021 he added in a slider that has been effective in its own right. Williams filled up the strike zone in 2021, albeit good not great command, and now has the look of a big league impact starter. As it turns out, it's hard to grow into your body when you're 6'6" and throw 100 but can't get consistent innings, so all he needed was to be on the mound regularly in order to figure it all out. He's a fourth year guy so he's a bit older, but he was actually young for his class and only turned 22 a few days before this was published. Williams signed for $2.25 million, which was about $680,000 below slot value.
2-58: LHP Doug Nikhazy, Mississippi. My rank: #52.
Another pick, another under slot signing for a player I actually had ranked ahead of where he was taken – AKA, great value. Doug Nikhazy is actually the exact opposite pitcher of Gavin Williams in a lot of ways. While Williams is a big righty with power stuff he can blow by hitters with ease, Nikhazy is an undersized lefty who gets by much more on command and sheer force of will. This year, like Williams, he was one of the best pitchers in the country, putting up a 2.45 ERA and a 142/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 innings against an extremely tough schedule. The lefty, who I've seen variously listed between 5'10" and 6', only tops out around 93-94 with his fastball and often sits close to 90, though the pitch does show great riding action that helps it play up. His curveball is his bread and butter, coming in with fringy velocity but huge depth, while his distinct slider is shorter and plays well off the curve and his changeup is a usable pitch as well. Nikhazy, or "Nikhrazy" as he has been nicknamed, is known around college baseball as one of the game's fiercest competitors, channeling Max Scherzer in his utter hatred for anyone who has the audacity to stand in the box against him. All of his pitches play up because of the conviction he brings behind each one, and it doesn't hurt that he shows above average command, either. There's a lot of crossfire in his drop-and-drive delivery, adding some deception on top of that. To succeed in pro ball, the Orlando-area native will likely need to add a tick of velocity, but doing so could make him an impact arm at the big league level. Even if the stuff stays where it is, you could see his intangibles carrying him to a #4/#5 starter role. He signed for $1.20 million, which was $14,300 below slot value.
CBB-69: RHP Tommy Mace, Florida. My rank: #43.
As with Gavin Williams and Doug Nikhazy, I really like this pick, and as with Nikhazy, the Indians are getting a fierce SEC competitor here. Tommy Mace has been on draft radars for a long time dating back to his high school days (like Williams), where he was considered a top five rounds prospect as a lanky, projectable pitcher, but he decided to head to Florida instead. Over his first three seasons in Gainesville, he made incremental steps forward in a variety of areas, but he never made the jump in stuff that scouts were hoping to see and he was one of the top (in my opinion, the top) undrafted college players in the shortened 2020 draft. Mace took the constructive criticism to heart during the pandemic and worked to remake his game, coming out in 2021 with a new repertoire. He worked in a four seam fastball more often that helped him get more swings and misses up in the zone, while continuing to deploy his usual two seamer down. After relying on a cutter as his primary breaking ball last year, he added a new, tight curveball that proved more effective at missing bats, while his changeup looks to have taken a small step forward as well. The 6'6" righty has always shown above average command and that did not change in 2021. The results were a bit more up and down than he might have liked, though, as he finished with a 4.38 ERA and a 113/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings against a tough schedule. The Tampa-area native was a bit more hittable against good lineups this year, but I'm still confident in his ability to make further adjustments, especially in Cleveland's system. Set to turn 23 after the season, he's on the older side, but Mace is exactly the kind of competitor I would not bet against. He signed for $1.1 million, which was roughly $130,000 above slot value.
3-95: SS Jake Fox, Lakeland Christian HS [FL]. Unranked.
The Indians only drafted two position players this year, and Jake Fox also represents one of only two high school players drafted. Ty Evans was seen as the top prospect on Lakeland Christian's baseball team coming into the season, but Evans had a rough spring while Fox impressed. Fox is a late bloomer who has steadily gotten better and better throughout his time in high school, slowly adding strength and bat speed to up his game. He now profiles as a very solid all-around offensive contributor whose beautiful left handed uppercut is now producing more power as he's added that strength. He's always shown feel to hit and the Indians believe he's going to continue to improve in their system, hence the big overslot gamble. The Floridian played shortstop for his high school team but will move off the position in pro ball, likely to second base, where his average athleticism is a better fit. He should have enough bat to profile there and seems like the kind of player who will maximize his skill set. Committed to Florida, Fox instead signed for $850,000, which was $239,200 above slot value.
4-125: LHP Ryan Webb, Georgia. My rank: #78.
Ryan Webb signed underslot here, but I think they have a chance to get massive value out of their fourth round pick. An under the radar guy early in his college career, he jumped onto the national scene with five shutout innings (including eleven strikeouts) in relief of Emerson Hancock in front of a big group of scouts in 2020. He finished that shortened season with a 1.20 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 innings, but teams weren't willing to meet his asking price on such a small sample so they left him undrafted. This year, it was more of the same for the Atlanta-area native, who put up a 3.32 ERA and an 82/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, but went down with Tommy John surgery in May. Still, I see a lot to like despite the fact that he's already 22 and won't throw a professional pitch until he's 23. The 6'1" lefty comes in with a low 90's fastball that has touched as high as 96, playing up due to the plane he puts on the baseball. He stands out even more for his feel to spin the baseball, showing a big breaking curveball with huge depth in addition to a distinct slider that is an above average pitch in its own right. The changeup should be a strong pitch for him in pro ball as well, even if the breaking balls are what he's known for. Everything in Webb's arsenal plays up further because of his ability to spot his pitches to both sides of the plate, so there really isn't standing in his way of becoming a #3 or #4 starter besides durability. The 59.2 innings this year were a career high and they ended in TJ, so Cleveland will want to focus on building up his strength to last over a full season. Given the success they tend to have with pitchers, a byproduct of that could end up being a slight uptick in velocity both for his fastball and offspeeds, which if it all comes together could make him a legitimate #2 starter. He signed for $400,000, which was $55,600 below slot value.
5-156: RHP Tanner Bibee, Cal State Fullerton. My rank: #228.
I really, really liked all four pitchers the Indians took up until this point. It's not that I dislike Tanner Bibee, just more that I'm not actively a fan. He's your classic Cal State Fullerton pitchability guy and like Williams, Mace, and Webb, he was eligible for the draft last year. 2021 was more good than great, as he plugged away to a 3.61 ERA and a 67/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, showing more or less exactly the pitcher he is. The Southern California native sits in the low 90's and gets up to a respectable 94-95 at best, putting some tough angle on the baseball because he throws from the far third base side of the rubber and comes across his body in a crossfire delivery. His slider is an above average pitch that also plays up from that angle, perhaps being his separator from other mid-round pitchability arms. For now, the changeup is an average pitch at best. The 6'2" righty stands out most for his command of the baseball, locating his stuff with relative precision to both sides of the plate and attacking the zone with confidence. As it stands now, he probably fits best as a two pitch reliever in pro ball, but any uptick in his stuff could give him a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. Bibee signed for $259,400, which was $77,200 below slot value.
7-216: RHP Jack Leftwich, Florida. My rank: #229.
Another round, another guy who is back after being eligible last year. Jack Leftwich is the second oldest player in this Indians draft class and the oldest that I will be writing about, having turned down a chance to be drafted towards the back of last year's draft so he could return to school with competitive balance pick Tommy Mace. Set to turn 23 in September, he's coming off the best year of his career, with a 3.36 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.2 innings, though most of them came as a long reliever rather than a starter in Florida's deep pitching staff. The Orlando native has a low 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, also coming in with a full array of secondary pitches led by an above average slider. He's filled up the strike zone consistently all four years in Gainesville, though his control remains ahead of his command and he can be prone to leaving pitches over the plate. The 6'4" righty also throws with some effort, which combined with the average command and stuff probably points to a career in the bullpen. In this Indians pitching development system, you never know though. He signed for $167,000, which was $36,400 below slot value.
8-246: LHP Rodney Boone, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #149.
This has a chance to be the real sleeper of the draft class for Cleveland. Rodney Boone has been nothing short of dominant at UC Santa Barbara, actually out-pitching his teammate and first round pick Michael McGreevy with a 2.52 ERA and a 239/79 strikeout to walk ratio over 199.2 career innings there (including a 2.31 ERA and a 128/39 K/BB this year). The only reason he lasted this long in the draft is velocity, as the Southern California native only sits in the mid to upper 80's with his fastball, scraping 90 when he reaches back in bullpens. The pitch plays up though because it has high spin rates and he gets a low release on the ball, giving it tremendous riding action for its velocity. His curveball, like his fastball, needs to add power, but it comes in with great shape and he has learned to throw it with more conviction. Boone also throws an above average changeup, giving him an offspeed weapon for both lefties and righties. To top it off, he shows above average command as well. Together, it's a pretty complete profile for the 6'1" lefty, who now needs to focus on eating as much as possible and tacking on weight to add power to his stuff. He doesn't need to throw 95 to succeed in the majors, but he does need to throw at least 91-92. He signed right at slot value for $167,000.
10-306: RHP Franco Aleman, Florida. Unranked.
Franco Aleman gives Cleveland their third Gator arm, joining Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich. He's an imposing presence on the mound with a strong 6'6" frame, pumping low to mid 90's fastballs in relief and climbing to 97-98 when he reaches back. Aleman's best secondary is an above average slider that he loves to attack hitters with, while his curveball and changeup are fringy. The Tampa native was up and down in 2021, posting a 5.74 ERA and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings as a swingman, but unlike many of the other players drafted this year he's young (just turned 21 in June) and has some time to smooth out his delivery. He's likely a reliever in pro ball unless he takes big steps forward with his secondaries or command, but he could be a great power reliever eventually pumping upper 90's fastballs in the late innings. He signed for $175,000, which was $31,500 above slot value.
14-426: RHP Trenton Denholm, UC Irvine. My rank: #215.
This is an interesting reclamation project for Cleveland. Trenton Denholm was eligible for the draft last year and was coming off a two year stretch with a 1.90 ERA over 123.1 innings, in addition to having 32.2 shutout innings over two summers in the elite Cape Cod League under his belt (albeit with one unearned run). Though he lacked big stuff, his excellent track record of performance as well as his extreme youth made him an attractive fourth-ish round option in 2020, but he priced himself out of the draft and returned to UC Irvine. Since then, his stock has taken a bit of a hit as he finished 2021 with a 4.61 ERA and a 70/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings with a pitcher-friendly home park, which aren't exactly the numbers you look for when performance is your best attribute. He's an undersized right hander at 5'11" that sits around 90 with his fastball and only tops out around 93, working in a fringy curveball and slider. His changeup is his best pitch, coming in with excellent fade. In the past, he succeeded in keeping hitters off balance well, but they adjusted to him in 2021 and exposed some of his weaknesses. Still, since he is extremely young for a fourth year college player and won't turn 22 until after the season, the Indians have time to get him back on top. The Sacramento-area native is known as an intense competitor who pounds the strike zone and commands his pitches well, and if he can take an incremental step forward with either of his breaking balls, it could be enough to keep hitters off his other pitches. You don't throw 32.2 shutout innings on the Cape without something special going on, and he should be an adjustment or two away from becoming a useful back-end starter or long reliever. He signed for $150,000, $25,000 of which counts against Cleveland's bonus pool.
17-516: RHP Tyler Thornton, Arizona State. My rank: #213.
One more reclamation project here. Tyler Thornton, like Trenton Denholm, entered the season with much more of a performance-based than a stuff-based profile. Indeed, he was the West Coast Conference Freshman of the Year after posting a 2.71 ERA and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings at Saint Mary's in 2019, then transferred to Arizona State and was strong in the shortened 2020 season (3.38 ERA, 25/7 K/BB). However, he was hit significantly harder in 2021 and finished with a 5.54 ERA and a 78/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings. The 6'3" righty is a bit of a soft tosser, sitting around 90 with his fastball and adding an above average changeup as well as a fringy curveball, though that stuff backed up a bit towards the end of the season. He still has a lot of room to get stronger and add weight to that string bean frame, something that will be important given his fastball was sitting upper 80's by the season's end. Thornton comes from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot that puts nice movement on his fastball and changeup, and I could see him adding a slider in Cleveland's system. The San Diego-area native also shows the ability to command his pitches to both sides of the plate, and given that he just turned 21 shortly before the draft, he has some extra time to develop. If the Indians can get him a little stronger and help that stuff take a step forward, he has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. That's great value in the seventeenth round, where he signed for just $50,000.
