Showing posts with label Jackson Baumeister. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jackson Baumeister. Show all posts

Thursday, August 24, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

The Orioles have gotten better and better at drafting, and this class doesn't disappoint. They only signed one catcher and one infielder, both on day three, instead focusing almost exclusively on outfield and pitching help. Speed is a major theme for the position players here, and of course nobody embodies it better than first round pick Enrique Bradfield. In fact, every outfielder drafted could be described as a plus or better runner. On the mound, the Orioles found athletes that moved well on the mound, looking for malleable clay they could take to the next level in their excellent player development system. Lastly, I'll note that the Orioles brought in some excellent baseball names with this class, my favorites being Tavian Josenberger, Teddy Sharkey, Kiefer Lord, Braxton Bragg, and Blake Money.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-17: OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $4.17 million. Signing bonus: $4.17 million.
My rank: #18. MLB Pipeline: #21. Baseball America: #16. Prospects Live: #16.
Sometimes, you really have to work to make a player profile interesting. Not this time. Enrique Bradfield is one of the most unique players in the class, with an old school brand of baseball that just might be primed for a comeback. A potential top 100 pick out of high school in South Florida, Bradfield priced himself out of the draft and instead headed to Vanderbilt, where he has only built his draft stock. He hit the ground running, literally, with a .336 batting average, a .451 on-base percentage, and 46 stolen bases as a true freshman in 2021, then went a perfect 46 for 46 in stolen bases in 2022. The numbers were down a touch in 2023, where he slashed .279/.410/.429 with six home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. If you've watched SEC baseball at all over the past three years, you know one thing about Bradfield – he can fly. Indeed, he probably provides more value on the basepaths than any player in all of college baseball, with blazing, top of the scale speed combined with excellent instincts that make him a generational baserunner, plain and simple. In three years at Vanderbilt, he stole 130 bases in 191 games and was caught just 13 times, despite the fact that opposing catchers knew he was running almost every time. Bradfield is no slouch at the plate, either. He's extremely patient with chase rates well below 20%, helping him draw a ton of walks and post a career .425 on-base percentage and a 14.6% walk rate against very strong competition. When he does swing, he rarely misses, with a line drive stroke geared towards all-fields contact that lets his wheels do their thing. He's the consummate leadoff hitter in every way. Built like a string bean at 6'1", his power is below average and will always be below average, though he can ambush you to the pull side and could flirt with double digit home run totals. It's not surprising that his defensive profile mirrors his offensive profile, with that elite speed playing up further due to strong reads and routes that could earn him Gold Gloves in the future. There's not much arm strength here, but his plus-plus range more than makes up for that and he'll provide plenty of value in center field. Overall, it's a very polished profile with a true outlier tool that could provide Baltimore with a leadoff hitter and basestealing threat for years to come. He's on his way there already, slashing .364/.563/.409 with 15 stolen bases and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio through fourteen games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

2-53: OF Mac Horvath, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: $1.58 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($182,900 below slot value).
My rank: #58. MLB Pipeline: #82. Baseball America: #67. Prospects Live: #60.
Mac Horvath is a pretty interesting prospect in his own right that does a lot well. He was a solid prospect as a draft eligible sophomore in the 2022 draft, but returned to UNC and put up a huge junior season, slashing .305/.418/.711 with 24 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 61/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. Horvath provides a coveted combination of power and athleticism that is hard to find, especially outside the first round. He packs plenty of lean strength into his 6'1" frame, which he combines with an innate ability to lift the ball with authority to produce plus game power, in fact blasting 42 home runs in 123 games over the past two seasons and popping for seven in the elite Cape Cod League. Horvath is also a very disciplined hitter that, like Enrique Bradfield, rarely chases, helping him consistently find pitches he can drive. The pure bat to ball skills are more average here because he does have a power-over-hit approach, and he does get into trouble in some of those deeper counts with a strikeout rate north of 20%. There are also some concerns about his ability to catch up to premium velocity, though he did slash .250/.330/.490 on the Cape. The Minnesota native is also a plus runner and uses his athleticism well at third base with plenty of range, though he could use a little more refinement on the defensive side. He could end up in a corner outfield spot, and that's where the Orioles drafted him, where his speed and arm strength will play well. Horvath's ability to time up premium stuff in the zone will determine how far he goes in pro ball, but the ceiling here is that of a 25-30 home run hitter that draws plenty of walks, steals some bases, and plays a solid third base. That's a nice profile even if the batting averages may never be anything special. They're certainly special to this point in the minors, where he's slashing .346/.500/.692 with a pair of home runs and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

CBB-63: RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $1.24 million. Signing bonus: $1.61 million ($361,800 above slot value).
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #167. Baseball America: #69. Prospects Live: #58.
As it turns out, the Orioles ended up giving Jackson Baumeister about $200,000 more than they gave Mac Horvath, signing him to just over the slot value for Horvath's draft position. Baumeister is a bit of a divisive prospect, but I'm fully on board with this pick and he actually has many similarities to current Orioles prospect Chayce McDermott. Baumeister was a premium prospect out of Jacksonville's Bolles School, alma mater of Chipper Jones, in 2021, but made it to campus at Florida State and was eligible as a sophomore this year. His 2023 numbers weren't the prettiest, with a 5.09 ERA and a 95/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, but they were pretty solid for the offense-friendly environment we found ourselves in this year. Baumeister sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 98, playing up with flat plane and hop that make it a plus pitch. Though he's still refining his breaking balls, he shows great feel to spin them, especially his above average curveball with power snap. He's working in his slider more as well and that should become at least an average, if not an above average pitch in the future. The changeup is also a work in progress and probably a fourth pitch at this point, as he can slow down his arm at times that lacks big tumble. The 6'4" righty has plenty of projection remaining and showcases his athleticism on the mound, with great extension and an explosive lower half that mean the sky could be the limit. The command isn't quite there yet as he's still learning to repeat that explosive delivery, and that does make for some relief risk. Personally, I'm bought in, and I think the Orioles have a great opportunity to take this excellent ball of clay and refine it into a mid-rotation arm. The fastball, feel for spin, and athleticism are there, so he really just needs refinement.

3-86: RHP Kiefer Lord, Washington {video}
Slot value: $808,200. Signing bonus: $760,000 ($48,200 below slot value).
My rank: #74. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #97. Prospects Live: #71.
Kiefer Lord presents another interesting ball of clay for the Orioles' player development system to play with. Originally a product of Carleton College in Minnesota, he transferred to Washington this past season and put up some gems early in the season, including against Northern Colorado (6 perfect innings, 10 K's) and Stanford (8 shutout innings, 3 baserunners, 10 K's). Those starts on the heels of a loud fall put him into top fifty pick consideration, but he slumped later in the season and put up an 18.22 ERA over his final four starts, boosting his season ERA to from 3.63 to 6.19 to go with a 78/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings. At his best, Lord sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and runs it into the upper 90's, showing some nice life on the pitch to boot. He flashes with both his curveball and his slider, though they can blend into each other and are still searching for their identities a bit, similar to his changeup. His lack of a consistent, reliable offspeed pitch may have contributed to his late season struggles as his fastball velocity dipped, but he's shown enough at his best to inspire confidence he can pull it together. The 6'3" righty is very projectable and moves well on the mound, which bodes well for his ability to hold his stuff over a long season and stick in the rotation, and that athletic delivery helps him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. If he can take a step forward with any one of his offspeed pitches to keep hitters off his fastball, he becomes a mid-rotation candidate in a hurry. In his first appearance in the Florida Complex League, he tossed two shutout innings on one walk, one hit batsman, and one strikeout.

3-100: OF Tavian Josenberger, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $671,800. Signing bonus: $603,000 ($68,800 below slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #156. Baseball America: #246. Prospects Live: #125.
This fits into the Orioles' early day two preferences as a high performing outfielder with a smattering of fun tools. Tavian Josenberger, a Kansas transfer, had a breakout season despite the jump in competition from the Big 12 to the SEC, slashing .286/.414/.490 with ten home runs and a 51/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Razorbacks. There is no standout tool here like Enrique Bradfield's speed or Mac Horvath's power/speed combo, but it's an extremely balanced profile reminiscent of recent Orioles picks like Donta' Williams and Reed Trimble. Josenberger is a twitchy athlete that can whip the barrel through the zone with authority from both sides of the plate, producing sneaky pull side power with natural loft. However, I wouldn't expect more than perhaps 15 home runs per season as he switches over to wood bats as he's not the most physical player in this class at an even six feet tall. He's a patient hitter that draws a ton of walks, in fact doing so at an excellent 17.2% clip this spring, which helps him tap his power more often in games because he finds good pitches to hit. That masks largely average bat to ball skills, and like Horvath, he can get into trouble in deeper counts and ran a strikeout rate above 20%. The Kansas City-area product is a versatile defender that will likely see most of his time in the outfield for Baltimore, where he profiles as a plus defender and could stick in center field. I see this as a fourth outfield profile with a solid all-around bat and nice speed. He's off to a bit of a slower start, slashing just .152/.339/.196 with a 12/13 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

4-118: RHP Levi Wells, Texas State {video}
Slot value: $563,600. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($63,600 below slot value).
My rank: #107. MLB Pipeline: #96. Baseball America: #111. Prospects Live: #81.
Back to the pitching ranks, Levi Wells has been on scouts' radars for a while now. A well-known prospect out of La Porte High School east of Houston, he made it to campus at Texas Tech but struggled badly with command and transferred a little closer to home at Texas State, where he has fit in much better. After establishing himself as a potential top 50 pick with a strong sophomore season (3.07 ERA, 86/32 K/BB), he was less consistent as a junior and finished with a 5.02 ERA and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings. He had some gems, including a thirteen strikeout complete game against Marshall, but also some duds, such as a start at Coastal Carolina in which he got blown up for eight runs in an inning and a third. Wells sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96 from a higher slot but getting great riding life on the pitch up in the zone that could make it a plus pitch if commanded more consistently. He adds a big, power curveball that functions as his out pitch, while his newer cutter/slider has developed quickly and his changeup is a bit behind. It's a really nice four pitch mix from a sturdy 6'2" frame that can be hard to find in the fourth round, though to this point he hasn't put it together consistently. Wells' command has really improved during his time in college as he's seriously toned down his delivery, but it's still fringy and he gets into trouble behind in counts when he leaves the ball over the plate. A tick more velocity on his fastball or a bit more consistency with his slider and changeup could render that less of an issue, as he is usually at least around the zone. It's a #3/#4 starter profile if he makes the adjustments he needs to make.

5-154: OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $396,700. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($21,700 below slot value).
My rank: #145. MLB Pipeline: #147. Baseball America: #140. Prospects Live: #128.
This is a boom/bust candidate if there ever was one. Jake Cunningham has extremely loud tools that rival those of second rounder Mac Horvath, but how they'll translate to pro ball remains to be seen. Cunningham had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (16 HR, .304/.410/.595) but a poorly timed ankle injury slowed him down out of the gate and he never quite got going fully, finishing 2023 with eleven home runs, a .267/.359/.519 slash line, and a 56/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. He has massive raw power from the right side, at least plus now and potentially greater in the future with 90th percentile exit velocities approaching 107 MPH in 2023. He's also a patient hitter that does a good job of making pitchers come to him, though the hit tool is well below average. Cunningham has long levers and some moving parts in his swing, leading to elevated swing and miss and a strikeout rate over 25% this year. Additionally, he struggled in a small sample on the Cape (.174/.269/.217) and was a non-factor against good competition in the Clemson Regional, where he struck out nine times in sixteen plate appearances. That's not going to cut it at this point. Meanwhile, he didn't get a chance to show it much in 2023 due to the ankle injury, but he's at least a plus runner when healthy if not approaching plus-plus. That speed adds an entire new dimension to his game, which is a major boon for him in the outfield where he projects to stick in center field. The Orioles are bought into the player they saw in 2022 and they believe that the tools are so loud here that it's worth gambling on questionable pure hitting ability. It's a bit reminiscent of the Jud Fabian pick last year, though Fabian was significantly more refined and went a few rounds earlier. In his two games in the Florida Complex League, he has three hits (all singles), two strikeouts, and three walks to this point.

6-181: RHP Jacob Cravey, Samford {video}
Slot value: $312,300. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($12,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #321. Prospects Live: #225.
In a year where many pitchers saw inflated ERA's due to college baseball's hitter-friendly environment, Jacob Cravey put up a career year with a 3.10 ERA and a 126/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Samford. Cravey is a big, physical right hander at 6'6", 215 pounds, possessing a low 90's fastball that touches 98 at best with great riding life from a higher slot. His slider has nice two plane bite and his changeup gets solid fade, making for a great baseline of a three pitch mix. The South Alabama native repeats his delivery well and shows average command, so the entire package looks like that of a back-end starter. Cravey is more about arm strength than athleticism or explosiveness, which may limit his ceiling a bit. Still, it's a nice high-probability starter package in the sixth round.

7-211: RHP Teddy Sharkey, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: $244,400. Signing bonus: $215,000 ($29,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #395. Prospects Live: #242.
Teddy Sharkey is the opposite of Jacob Cravey. While Cravey is a somewhat polished innings-eating starter type, Sharkey is a ball of fire that is likely a pure reliever at the pro level. He's coming off a great season as the Coastal Carolina closer in which he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 98 with great riding life, while his curveball and slider are both distinct, nasty breaking pitches that miss a ton of bats. The 6' righty has an uptempo delivery and his control is well ahead of his command, so it's unlikely that he makes the jump to starting in pro ball. His demeanor fits well in the bullpen, as he pitches with a ton of energy, attacks hitters with everything he has, and loves to compete. If the Jersey Shore native's command holds together in pro ball, he could move quickly as a reliever. In his first appearance in the Florida Complex League, he tossed two shutout innings on one walk and three strikeouts.

10-301: OF Matthew Etzel, Southern Miss {video}
Slot value: $167,000. Signing bonus: $167,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #229. Baseball America: #257. Prospects Live: #165.
This could be a sneaky good pick for the Orioles. Matthew Etzel began his career at Texas A&M, but quickly transferred to Panola JC in Texas and played two years there, where by the end of his sophomore season he began to earn serious draft consideration. Instead of going pro, he transferred again to Southern Miss where he was more good than great this year. He started slowly, not homering for the first two months of the season, but once he started turning on the ball and driving it with authority he was able to put together solid numbers, with a .316/.381/.470 slash line, 23 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. The Orioles are bought into that new and improved Etzel, who has a chance to be a dynamic talent. The Houston-area native has an adjustable barrel and can get to balls all over the zone, though he's less comfortable with offspeed stuff and that's something to watch for in his transition to pro ball. His quick hands and feel for the barrel give him sneaky power, with the chance to hit perhaps 10-15 home runs per season, though it will likely never be a huge part of his game. Etzel is an easy plus runner that can be a menace on the bases, and it also helps him play a pretty mean center field. He likely profiles as a fourth outfielder whose ability to be a net-positive in center will make him a valuable piece. He has had a solid transition to pro ball so far, slashing .278/.409/.481 with two home runs, a dozen stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

14-421: RHP Michael Forret, State College of Florida Manatee-Sarasota {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($300,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #407. Prospects Live: unranked.
All those little bits of money the Orioles saved here and there on day two added up to something to throw around, and while a few day three picks went unsigned, they landed fourteenth rounder Michael Forret for  early fifth round money. A true freshman this year, Forret posted a 3.34 ERA and a 106/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings on the Florida JuCo circuit, then impressed evaluators with a strong start for Falmouth in the Cape Cod League late in the draft cycle. Overall, the 6'3" righty brings a pretty advanced package for a teenager. He sits in the low 90's, touching 94 with riding life, while adding a nice diving slider and a fading changeup. None of his three pitches stand out as likely strikeout pitches at the next level quite yet, but he commands them well with conviction and offers plenty of projection in his lean frame. Once the Orioles iron out his delivery a little bit and help him tack on some weight, he could be sitting in the mid 90's while holding that above average command. He only turned 19 in April and offers a nice combination of safety and upside for under $500,000.

Sunday, October 16, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

2022 draftees: 57. Top school: Georgia Tech (8)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/2/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-9, Royals: OF Gavin Cross (Virginia Tech)
1-11, Mets: C Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech)
2-40, Dodgers: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville)
2-42, Orioles: 3B Max Wagner (Clemson)
2-54, Guardians: LHP Parker Messick (Florida State)
CBB-68, Twins: SS Tanner Schobel (Virginia Tech)
CBB-70, Rays: SS Chandler Simpson (Georgia Tech)

The ACC had yet another year of 50+ draftees, dominated by position players as the league was known around college baseball for its loaded lineups. Each of the first four players drafted and six of the first seven were position players, led by first rounders Gavin Cross of Virginia Tech and Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech. The league looks perhaps even deeper this year, with close to a dozen players with a realistic chance to play their way into the first round conversation quickly in 2023. Obviously we won't see that many drafted there, but every player on this list could realistically be one of those names called in the first round come July 2023. Like last year, it's a hitter-heavy list, something that is becoming part of the ACC's brand. Let's look through the top dozen prospects in the conference.

1. OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 10/2/2001. Hometown: Massapequa, NY.
2022: 6 HR, .329/.402/.506, 5 SB, 16/11 K/BB in 41 games.
Boston College hasn't seen much team success lately with just one winning season out of the past six, but they have produced plenty of high end draft prospects including Justin Dunn, Cody Morissette, Luke Gold, Sal Frelick, the latter of whom shares some similarities to Travis Honeyman. Frelick, the fifteenth overall pick in 2021, was the school's highest drafted player since fourth overall pick Tony Sanchez in 2009, and Honeyman has a chance to beat Frelick this year. After picking up one (1) hit as a freshman in 2021, he broke out as one of the team's best hitters in 2022 and and boosted his stock further with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .289/.400/.530 with four home runs in 24 games. He makes a ton of contact from the right side, striking out just 8.7% of the time at BC in 2022 and a still-solid 18.2% on the Cape, with exceptional adjustability in his swing and the ability to get to balls all over the zone. He's similar to Frelick in that sense, but at 6'2", his long arms and extremely quick hands help him produce high exit velocities and above average pull side power in games. It's hard to bust him in, as he can pull those hands in and turn on the ball with the best of them, but he has no problem going the other way either and the power will start to come that way as he gets stronger. The Long Island native is not quite as fast as Frelick and is not guaranteed to stick in center field, but he may hit for more impact while maintaining nearly as high an on-base percentage, though to this point he makes too much contact early in counts to draw high numbers of walks. Honeyman has plenty of upside, with the chance to hit 20+ home runs a year with high, batting average-driven on-base percentages, potentially from center field.

2. OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 3/13/2002. Hometown: Boalsburg, PA.
2022: 14 HR, .375/.452/.664, 10 SB, 51/32 K/BB in 58 games.
Jack Hurley might be the most exciting player in the ACC. An immediate contributor as a freshman in 2021, he broke out as one of the best hitters in arguably the best lineup in college baseball in 2022, slashing an incredible .375/.452/.664 in 58 games. He brings a high energy style of play to the ballpark, taking big swings in the box, searching for extra bases where he can find them, and running full speed into the outfield wall if need be. He's not huge at six feet tall, but he generates a ton of torque with those big swings and taps above average power consistently in games, naturally lifting and driving the ball to all fields. He previously struggled with swing and miss, striking out 30.8% as a freshman, but he dropped that rate to 18.8% in 2022 and hopes to continue trending in the right direction in 2023. He hammers fastballs and is improving against offspeed stuff, so that will be his primary focus in 2023. Defensively, he payed left field last year while Gavin Cross manned center, but he's plenty fast enough to slide over to center this year and should be able to stick there in pro ball as well. It's a profile littered with 55's and if he can continue to improve against offspeed stuff, he has a chance to become an impact player at the major league level that provides value in a multitude of ways.

3. 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 210 lbs. Born 10/9/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2022: 18 HR, .329/.411/.650, 6 SB, 60/34 K/BB in 60 games.
Yohandy Morales has been a priority follow for scouts down in South Florida for a while now. A big name in the 2020 high school class, he got off to a hot start before the COVID shutdown and pushed his name into top three rounds consideration, but ultimately stayed home to attend Miami. Morales burst onto the scene in Coral Gables by slashing .284/.343/.531 with eleven home runs as a freshman, then improved each number in his triple slash this past spring before a strong showing with the US Collegiate National Team over the summer. First and foremost, Morales stands out for his power. He's a big, lanky guy at 6'4", packing plenty of lean strength onto that frame that helps him put great leverage on the ball. Content with more of a line drive approach for now, he generates big exit velocities and can easily lift the ball out of the park when he wants to, and even his mishits can cause problems for pitchers. To this point, he has been a bit aggressive at the plate and has struck out north of 20% of the time in both of his collegiate seasons, so that will be something to watch this coming spring. If he can manage that and show more discipline in 2023, it's an easy first round bat that could end up with 55 hit, 60 power. Additionally, he's a solid athlete that has showed well at third base, making for a very well-rounded profile that will be very intriguing early in the draft. By cutting that strikeout rate just a little, he could easily pass Honeyman and Hurley on this list and be the first ACC player drafted.

4. 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 6/17/2002. Hometown: Valrico, FL.
2022: 23 HR, .272/.362/.602, 0 SB, 71/34 K/BB in 60 games.
In a conference full of power bats, you might not find one more prodigious than Brock Wilken. The Tampa-area product has already blasted 40 home runs over two years at Wake Forest, plus thirteen more over two Cape seasons. He really cemented himself as a top prospect in this class with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League in 2021, just as he was turning 19 years old, and when you include his more ordinary 2022 Cape season he hit .271/.400/.471 over 73 games. So long story short, Wilken has faced a huge sample of high level pitching and has consistently performed for a long time now. While Yohandy Morales is leaner, Wilken is a barrel chested 6'4" that looks like he would fit right in for Dave Clawson on the gridiron. He deploys that copious strength into big right handed swings, and the ball just jumps off his bat like few in college baseball. He can easily put it out to any field with plus power and does plenty of damage on mishits as well, and if he makes enough contact, he could profile for thirty-plus home runs a year at the major league level. Wilken is a patient hitter that works counts well, spoiling tough pitches until he gets a good one to hit, though he does get into trouble occasionally in those deep counts and his 24.2% strikeout rate last spring was a bit higher than you'd like to see. He'll probably always struggle with swing and miss, but that grinder mentality in the box will serve him well and he has done nothing but hit for a very long time now. He also possesses a plus arm that could give him a shot at third base, though he'll need to get more agile to stick there long term. At his ceiling, he could be a similar player to Pete Alonso.

5. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 3/8/2002. Hometown: Albemarle, NC.
2022: 11-3, 3.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 105/26 K/BB in 99.1 innings.
It's all about the bats in this conference, but Rhett Lowder has so far emerged as the best arm in the prestigious league. He jumped right into the rotation as a freshman and broke out as a sophomore, striking out over one hundred batters along the way. There is no one plus attribute here, but Lowder does a little bit of everything well. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can get up to 97 at his best, while his slider and changeup both look consistently above average to give him three big league pitches. He commands everything well to both sides of the plate, effectively navigating the loaded lineups of the ACC by executing where he needed to. That combination of pitchability and stuff is hard to find at times, and the North Carolina native also comes with some projection in a skinny 6'2" frame. Most pitchers nowadays like to identify as a Max Scherzer-esque "psychopath" or a Landon Sims-like "bulldog" on the mound, but Lowder doesn't really fit either of those descriptions. An artist in his spare time (literally, he creates oil paintings), he's quiet and composed on the mound and doesn't let much rattle him. It's the full package as a starting pitcher, one that has a very good chance to wind up in the middle of a big league rotation.

6. RHP Teddy McGraw, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 10/30/2001. Hometown: Oneonta, NY.
2022: 5-2, 4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 67/38 K/BB in 70.2 innings.
We'll round out the Wake Forest section of this list with Teddy McGraw, another 6'2" righty in the Demon Deacon rotation but one who gets things done a little differently than Rhett Lowder. While Lowder has about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to get, McGraw is much more of a loud stuff guy who is still refining his overall feel for pitching and one who hopes to truly break out in 2023. While the ACC numbers aren't quite there (and Wake Forest's hitter-friendly David F. Couch Ballpark doesn't do him any favors), like Brock Wilken he has thrived over two summers in the Cape Cod League, where he has a combined 3.20 ERA and a 47/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 innings. He can touch 98 early in starts and can still hold low 90's velocity towards the end, with heavy running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. He's recently worked to add a four seam fastball that can ride away from his more natural two seam plane, giving hitters another look. McGraw's best pitch is a plus slider with nasty hard snap that misses a ton of bats, and he's working on a changeup that flashes above average as well. He moves well on the mound with an athletic delivery and a low release, but to this point his fringy command has held him back from becoming the impact arm Wake Forest wants him to be. Controlling at bats and setting himself up with better counts will be on the to do list in 2023, and if he can, there's no reason he shouldn't go in the first round. If his command plateaus and he continues to wind up in hitters' counts, he may be a reliever at the next level and the second round would make more sense.

7. 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Rehoboth Beach, DE.
2022: 21 HR, .377/.477/.764, 3 SB, 49/41 K/BB in 58 games.
Zack Gelof hit .316/.396/.478 with 16 home runs over a three year career at UVA, then went to the A's in the second round of the 2021 draft. Two years later, his brother Jake has a chance to beat his draft position, now that he's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he set the UVA school record for RBI (81) and finished near the top of the school leaderboards in multiple other stats. He loves to turn on the ball and can do so virtually anywhere in the zone, not having to wait for that middle-in fastball to crank one. ACC pitching did not faze him one bit, as he hammered virtually everything thrown at him and had opposing managers circling his name in the lineup. Despite the big numbers, he wasn't always the most consistent hitter and lost his approach at times, but those highest on the Delaware native may be willing to write that off as an underclassman just being a young hitter. There is also some swing and miss present in his game, as he ran an 18.7% strikeout rate this past spring, but he's pretty patient too and overall it's not a major concern. He has the look of a 25+ home run hitter with solid on-base percentages that can hit in the middle of a major league lineup if everything breaks right and he gets more consistent at the plate. He's also a solid defender at third base that should be able to stick there, providing additional value all around. There are many similarities to Yohandy Morales on this list, though Morales is bigger, more athletic, and had a better summer.

8. C Kyle Teel, Virginia.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 190 lbs. Born 2/15/2002. Hometown: Mahwah, NJ.
2022: 6 HR, .276/.402/.439, 3 SB, 36/41 K/BB in 58 games.
Kyle Teel didn't have quite as loud a season in 2022 as his teammate Jake Gelof, but his lengthy track record keeps them neck and neck in terms of prospect status. Teel had a chance to go in the top three rounds of the 2020 draft out of a New Jersey high school, but pulled his name before the event because he was dead set on Charlottesville. He made an immediate impact as a freshman, slashing .335/.416/.526 with nine home runs in 2021, but didn't hit for quite as much impact in 2022 as he dropped to .276/.402/.439 and he struggled in 14 games between the Collegiate National Team and the Cape Cod League (.146/.271/.195). Teel is a very disciplined hitter that works counts effectively, something you might expect from a seasoned ACC catcher, and that helps him continue to get on base consistently and provide value even when his bat goes cold. His load can get rigid as he stabs the handle towards his back foot a bit before exploding towards the ball, messing with his timing occasionally. Still, is strong pitch selection helps him keep the swing and miss to a minimum despite the moving parts in his swing, and when it's all clicking, he's a true impact hitter as we saw during that freshman season. Behind the plate, he's more athletic than most catchers and has shown the ability to handle multiple other positions around the diamond. His pure glovework is still a work in progress but that athleticism gives him a nice baseline and is plenty enough to give scouts confidence he'll eventually develop into at least an average defender back there. Left handed hitting catchers that can hit and field at a high level are hard to find, so if he can recapture his 2021 form while continuing to make strides on defense, he could go early in the first round.

9. SS Alex Mooney, Duke.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 7/6/2002. Hometown: Rochester Hills, MI.
2022: 3 HR, .292/.393/.392, 12 SB, 41/27 K/BB in 54 games.
Alex Mooney continues the trend on this list of players who earned considerable draft interest out of high school, and in this case he could well have heard his name in the top fifty picks. One of the top incoming recruits in the entire country, he jumped into the everyday lineup immediately as a freshman and ended up having a solid, if unspectacular, first season in Durham. He wasted no time getting acclimated to ACC pitching, posting nearly a .400 on-base percentage and running just a 16.7% strikeout rate as a 19 year old, but he also wound up slugging below .400 as he only managed fourteen extra base hits in 54 games. The Detroit-area native posted similar numbers over the summer in the Cape Cod League (.263/.330/.389), but it's worth noting that he bumped his ISO from .100 to .126 and went from three home runs in 54 games to five home runs in 46 games despite transitioning to wood bats and facing better pitching. Mooney brings a great combination of strength, athleticism, and baseball IQ to the diamond, and it's important to remember this was only his first season in college ball. He's old for a sophomore and will turn 21 before the draft, though, so taking that next step in 2023 will be very important if he wants to go in the top two rounds. Personally, I think he will. He has very quiet hands in the box and uses them to guide the barrel to different parts of the zone with precision, recognizing pitches well and making adjustments in the box. It's an above average hit tool for now that has a chance to become plus, and as he continues to fill out his 6'1" frame, hopefully he can tap average power as well. Defensively, his athleticism, strong internal clock, and feel for the infield give him every shot to stick at shortstop, though a more explosive athlete could push him to second or third base depending on what system he ends up in. This is a profile filled with average or better tools that could all tick up to 55 or better if he continues to progress.

10. IF LuJames Groover, North Carolina State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 4/16/2002. Hometown: Morrow, GA.
2022: 10 HR, .364/.440/.568, 4 SB, 44/28 K/BB in 57 games.
There is a saying that hitters hit, and that certainly applies to LuJames Groover. He began his career at Charlotte but transferred after one season to NC State, where he was one of their best hitters and figures to be the centerpiece in the Wolfpack lineup now with Tommy White off to LSU. Groover is a professional hitter through and through, one who makes contact as consistently and with as much authority as anybody in the conference. He struck out just 16.1% of the time in 2022 while producing high exit velocities, meaning lots of scorching grounders and screaming line drives. That's the Atlanta-area product's approach for now, with a flat swing geared towards those hard line drives that helped him hit .364 at NC State and previously .351 as a freshman at Charlotte. Though he doesn't have much loft in his right handed swing, he can turn on the ball when he needs to and finds such a high volume of barrels that he did run into ten home runs last year, and he has a chance at above average power in pro ball if he decides to make that a larger part of his game. Given his innate feel for hitting, he should be able to if he wants to. Defensively, Groover is more of a question mark. He appeared at first base, second base, and both corner outfield spots for NC State last year and hasn't really turned heads at any of them, so barring positive developments on that front, the pressure will be on his bat. He's a decent athlete that can handle himself around the diamond, but his best case scenario is as a bat-first second baseman and there's a chance he ends up at first base for good.

11. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 7/10/2002. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2022: 1-2, 5.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 41/20 K/BB in 27.1 innings.
Jackson Baumeister is yet another big name high school prospect who made it to campus. He had a chance to go in the top three rounds in 2021 and ended up in Tallahassee instead, but unlike Alex Mooney, he wasn't an immediate contributor. Rather, he got buried in an FSU pitching staff that proved to be the deepest in the conference, making seventeen relief appearances and two late-season midweek starts, but he'll have a chance to step into a much larger role in 2023 after the entire weekend rotation left either for pro ball or the transfer portal. Baumeister spent his summer on the Cape and threw nearly as many innings there (21) as he did all season long at FSU (27.1), and showed well with a 4.28 ERA and a 30/10 strikeout to walk ratio. He's an excellent athlete that gets down the mound well with a fluid delivery, getting good extension out front with a low release point that helps his stuff play up. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and tops out around 96 with riding action, while a sharp downer curveball has a chance to be his best pitch if he can add a little more power. The Jacksonville native is also working on an improving changeup, though it's still inconsistent to this point and he can slow his arm down at times. Below average command kept him from clawing through that FSU depth chart and earning innings last year, but given his athleticism and repeatable delivery, he has every chance to develop average command in time. If he does, he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but he'll need to build up some track record in Tallahassee this year to crack the top two rounds.

12. RHP Carson Montgomery, Florida State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 8/13/2002. Hometown: Windermere, FL.
2022: 4-1, 5.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 62/23 K/BB in 54 innings.
For all the fanfare that followed Jackson Baumeister to Tallahassee, Carson Montgomery was an even bigger prospect as a prep that ranked as the top prospect on my list to reach campus (though #'s 2 and 4, Kevin Parada and Dylan Crews, have since surpassed him in a big way), though like Baumeister, he's yet to break out. Though Montgomery graduated in 2020 and Baumeister was a 2021, he's actually more than a month younger as he's extremely young for his class and Baumeister is very old, interestingly enough. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 98, though it plays down a touch and catches a lot of barrels in the zone because of its generic movement. By far his best pitch is a plus slider with huge spin rates that misses a ton of bats, and pro teams will likely have him pitch off of it in the minors. He also flips in an average changeup, rounding out a big league three pitch arsenal. He's athletic on the mound but does have an interesting double leg lift that impacts his break towards the plate, and to this point his control is well ahead of his command. For most pitchers who can hit 98 and add a nasty breaking ball, that's not so much of an issue anymore, but given Montgomery's fastball's tendency to find more barrels than it misses, it's certainly important for him. If he can get better about locating his prodigious stuff or finds a way to get more movement on his fastball, he can be an impact starting pitcher at the big league level. Given his youth, not turning 21 until after the draft, there's a solid chance that happens.

Honorable Mentions
Just Missed: Catcher Cooper Ingle (Clemson) was the first player off the list after slashing .351/.449/.526 with eight home runs for the Tigers last year and is one of my favorite players in the conference. He utilizes a short, slasher-type swing focused on lashing line drives around the field, but he can turn on one if he needs to and could be a fun prospect to develop. An interesting .252/.401/.319 run through the Cape Cod League with more walks (30) than strikeouts (28) highlighted his exceptional feel for hitting and also called into question somewhat his ability to create impact with wood bats.
Post-Hype: Yohandy Morales wasn't the only big name to reach Miami's campus following the 2020 draft, but Alejandro Rosario hasn't quite lived up to expectations with a 6.09 ERA and a strikeout rate below 20% over two years in Coral Gables. He began to turn that around with a strong, albeit brief stint on the Cape (1.74 ERA, 13/1 K/BB) and has a chance to finally put it together this spring. Armed with a fastball that can hit 99 and an improving slider/splitter combo, he's one of the better athletes in the conference and could make for a fun ball of clay for whoever drafts him.
Top Transfer: The transfer portal taketh away from NC State with Tommy White heading to LSU, but it also giveth as the Wolfpack pulled Old Dominion star Carter Trice across the border to Raleigh. Trice was a two year performer for the Monarchs, slashing .324/.411/.620 with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 111 games, bringing a dynamic skill set to NC State that should translate to the ACC. Undersized at 5'11", he has big power from the right side and above average speed. He has struggled with swing and miss throughout his career but has shown well over two summers on the Cape (.262/.348/.454).
Deep Sleeper: Wake Forest is pulling in a very interesting young lefty named Sean Sullivan, who posted a 4.45 ERA and a 78/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Northwestern in 2022. He draws many similarities to Miami's (now the Rockies') Carson Palmquist as a true sidearm lefty that gets by more on command than stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball while adding a sweeping slider and a plus changeup. I'm very excited to see what happens at Wake Forest's pitching lab over the offseason and he could be primed for a big time breakout.

Sunday, September 5, 2021

The Top 12 High School Pitching Prospects Headed to Campus

Earlier, we looked at the top position players reaching campus, so now we'll pivot to the pitchers. The pitchers on last year's list haven't quite made the immediate impact of last year's position players, but sometimes it takes them longer to get acclimated to the higher level. After picking up two of the top nine position player prospects in Cody Schrier and Malakhi Knight, UCLA is back with two of the top three pitching prospects to really hammer home a fantastic recruiting class. Because #10 James Peyton Smith switched up and will go the JuCo route, this list is a bit unusual in that there are no Florida Gators or LSU Tigers and only one Vanderbilt Commodore, the latter not showing up until the last spot on the list (though Florida did pick up three in the "just missed" group and LSU got one). 

1. LHP Gage Jump, UCLA (JSerra Catholic HS, CA). 2021 rank: #20.
Gage Jump is the top overall prospect to reach campus, edging out #25 Peyton Stovall (Arkansas) on the position player side. Jump is a really, really interesting pitcher that has made himself a lot of fans on the West Coast and across the country despite being undersized. The 5'11" lefty has a low 90's fastball that has reached as high as 96, while bringing a deep curveball, a distinct slider, and a changeup. Everything plays up because despite his shorter stature, he gets exceptional extension for his size and puts big spin rates on his stuff, creating a ton of movement in the best way. That fastball sneaks up on hitters and regularly evades barrels up in the zone, while his curveball plays off it really well. He does a good job of pounding the strike zone and a little more refinement when it comes to repeating his delivery could give him above average command. Jump has been noted for his knowledge of the game and feel for pitching on top of everything else, which should help him jump into that UCLA rotation right away after it lost Nick Nastrini (Dodgers, fourth round), Jesse Bergin (Marlins, eleventh round), Sean Mullen (Rays, eleventh round), and Zach Pettway (Indians, sixteenth round) to the draft. Some have compared the Orange County product to a left handed Jack Leiter, as a shorter pitcher who uses his body extremely well and understands his craft. Look for Jump to try to work his way into the first round in 2024.

2. LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest (Reagan HS, NC). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Josh Hartle was among the first players to announce his intention to go to school rather than pro ball, while Wake Forest is getting exactly the kind of profile that could reemerge as an early first round pick in 2024. He's earned comps to Kyle Harrison, who signed above slot with the Giants in the third round last year, but he's seven months younger (relative to his class) and throws a bit harder at the same stage of his career. For that reason, had he been on my final rankings, he would have been just outside the first round range. Hartle sits in the low 90's and gets up to around 94, which isn't overwhelming velocity but plenty for now especially given his projection. He adds a sweepy slider with great depth that could become a plus pitch in time, though for now it lacks power and plays closer to average. He also has great feel for his changeup that rounds out his arsenal really nicely, and in turn gives him a chance for three plus pitches if all goes well at Wake Forest. The 6'5" lefty fills the strike zone consistently and repeats his low three quarters delivery well, but perhaps his best attribute is projection. With an ideal frame and an easy delivery, scouts are certain there is more velocity in the tank and he could legitimately add three to five miles per hour to his fastball in Winston-Salem as he gets stronger. Combine that with his stuff and strike throwing ability from the left side, and you have all of the ingredients for a future top ten pick, and in turn a future big league ace. Of course, he has to stay healthy, make those strength gains, and hold his command as they come in order to reach that ceiling, but I see no reason why he won't. The Winston-Salem native will be a priority follow for Carolina area scouts over the next few seasons and the Demon Deacons have likely found their heir to Ryan Cusick at the front of their rotation, if not in 2022 then likely by 2023.

3. RHP Thatcher Hurd, UCLA (Mira Costa HS, CA). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Like Josh Hartle, Thatcher Hurd removed himself from the draft well before the event got started and therefore was not in my final rankings, but he would have ranked in the second round range. Hurd shares a lot of similarities to both Hartle and fellow UCLA commit and #1 recruit Gage Jump, with exactly the kind of profile that goes to school and reemerges as an early first round pick. Relatively new to pitching, he sits around 90 right now and gets up to around 93-94 consistently, but like Hartle, there is a ton more in the tank. His slider and curveball are two unique breaking balls that are still works in progress, but the slider regularly looks like an above average pitch already while the curveball looks like it should become at least an average offering. The changeup is a bit behind, but he does show feel for it. Everything plays up because the Oakland-area native (who transferred to the Los Angeles area for his senior year) mirrors Jump a bit in that he gets high spin rates on everything that put ride on his fastball and more movement on his breaking balls. He pounds the strike zone very well for someone who is new to pitching, and while he can be a little bit rushed in his delivery at times, it's clean overall and he repeats it well. Hurd stands out for his feel for pitching and work ethic as well, constantly looking for ways to improve his game and stand out in the crowded field of young pitchers looking for a shot. Add that onto the projection in his 6'4" frame, the freshness of his arm, and the development he'll get at UCLA, and you have a potential ace in the making. He's a bit behind Jump and slightly behind Hartle in present velocity, but he could catch up in no time. Look for Gage Jump and Thatcher Hurd to lead a new era of UCLA arms and try to replicate the Trevor Bauer/Gerrit Cole era.

4. RHP Caedmon Parker, Texas Christian (The Woodlands Christian HS, TX). 2021 rank: #69.
As with Josh Hartle and Thatcher Hurd, Caedmon Parker withdrew from the draft before it started, but by then he was already on my final rankings and remained at #69. Parker, like Hartle and Hurd, is a big time projection play who has a chance to become an absolute monster under pitching guru and new TCU head coach Kirk Saarloos. His fastball is currently inconsistent in its velocity, at times chilling in the upper 80's but at others reaching back for as much as 94-95. He adds an improving curveball in addition to a sweepy slider with great depth, and he shows good feel for a changeup as well. The 6'4" righty has an ideal frame to add velocity and shows a ton of athleticism on the mound, with a springy, low effort delivery that could use a little cleanup that Saarloos and co. are certainly up to the task on. While that delivery can be a little inconsistent at times, when he is repeating it well, he shows above average command that is especially nice to see given that he's split his focus with football up to this point. The Houston-area native is also relatively young for the class and didn't turn 18 until a month before the draft, which combined with his frame, athleticism, spin rates, and natural movements on the mound should enable him to continue trending up. Parker was one of my favorite arms in this class and I had him ranked well ahead of Prospects Live (#100), MLB Pipeline (#110), and Baseball America (#222), and I look forward to following his development in Fort Worth.

5. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State (Bolles HS, FL). 2021 rank: #75.
Jackson Baumeister was trending up quickly this spring, but ultimately not quickly enough to be diverted away from a strong commitment to Florida State. Last year, the Seminoles picked up the top incoming freshman pitching prospect in the country in Carson Montgomery, who was more solid than spectacular in his debut this spring (4.50 ERA, 39/23 K/BB in 28 IP). While Montgomery stood out in part for his extreme youth, Baumeister is old for his class and is actually a couple weeks older than Montgomery despite being a grade behind. That means that he and Montgomery will both be eligible together for the 2023 draft, so he'll want to hit the ground running in Tallahassee. The good news is that Baumeister is absolutely up to the task, bringing a combination of "now" stuff and projection comparable to anybody in the class. His fastball is consistently in the low 90's now and is getting up to around 95, while his curveball shows both sharpness and depth and looks like a true plus pitch when he rips through it right. He mainly works off of those two pitches and will need to gain more feel for his changeup and perhaps get a bit more consistent with that curveball, which can be slurvy at times, but it's a really exciting package nonetheless. The 6'3" righty is a great athlete and gets down the mound extremely well, releasing the ball out in front and making his pitches jump on hitters. While the command is relatively inconsistent at this point, it has been trending in the right direction and some refinement under the Florida State coaching staff should help him get to average in that regard. If he can make incremental adjustments here and there, we've got another potential first rounder on our hands who could be truly electric when all is said and done. The Jacksonville native had a ton of fans in the 2021 draft who saw him as a clear-cut top two rounds arm already, and now he has two years to build on that.

6. RHP Chase Burns, Tennessee (Beech HS, TN). 2021 rank: #84.
Chase Burns was one of the more polarizing prospects in the 2021 class, with many believing he belonged firmly in the top two rounds (both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him in the top fifty) and others seeing a boom or bust profile that fit better in the third or fourth round. I fell into the latter bucket, but regardless the Volunteers are getting one of the single most electric arms in the entire class. Burns has an elite fastball that sits consistently in the mid 90's has reached 101, playing up even further with spin rates and riding action that make it near impossible to square up. At his best, his curveball has vicious bite while his shorter slider darts away from bats late, but both are inconsistent and can flatten out regularly. He's shown the makings of a decent changeup but hasn't shown his best version of that pitch consistently yet. The 6'4" righty has done a very good job of improving his delivery and can fill up the strike zone when he's on, though his actions remain a little bit rigid for my taste and he does throw with effort, losing his arm slot at times. Hard throwing preps have had a poor track record as of late, and because he gets to his velocity more through brute force than natural extension and kinetic chain, I see considerable reliever risk here. My guess is he'll likely spend his freshman season as a reliever in Knoxville, but the Nashville-area product has a chance to prove his proponents right and his doubters wrong by sticking in the weekend rotation over a full season if not in 2022 then in 2023 and 2024. If not, the power stuff should be absolutely wicked out of a big league bullpen.

7. LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas (Bullard HS, TX). 2021 rank: #100.
Arkansas brought in the top incoming position player prospect in the country in Peyton Stovall, and between him and Hagen Smith, the Razorbacks now have the two most dominant performers in recent memory from the Piney Woods/Ark-La-Tex region. While Stovall went on a home run barrage that seemingly lasted all season against northern Louisiana pitching, Smith threw no-hitter after no-hitter against his East Texas competition and now they'll be teaming up in Fayetteville. Smith is a really interesting arm with a fastball around 90 that can get up to around 95, showing nice arm side run from a lower arm slot. He complements that well with an above average slider that flashes plus, and also gets some drop on a decent changeup. There is some Brusdar Graterol in the profile, with most of his power coming from heavy torso rotation rather than a traditional drop and drive motion. The Arkansas coaching staff will want to smooth him out a little bit and make sure he really is getting everything he can out of his 6'3" frame, with more velocity very likely on the way as he fills out and crisps up that delivery. The Bullard, Texas native is extremely young for the class, more than a year younger than Jackson Baumeister, and didn't turn 18 until more than a month after the draft, so he has additional time to develop. Combine that with the fact that he's coming from off the prospect map in small town East Texas, and you have a recipe for rapid improvements in Fayetteville.

8. RHP/WR Brody Brecht, Iowa (Ankeny HS, IA). 2021 rank: #111.
Brody Brecht is probably the most athletic person on this list, and it's not particularly close. He's a star football player that will be playing wide receiver at Iowa, then he ran track over the winter and into the spring and got a late start to baseball because of it. Then, at least so it seems, he just stepped on the mound and started hitting the upper 90's like it's nothing, so we're talking premium natural talent. Brecht was always going to be a tough sign because he loves football and has no plans to give it up any time soon, so we'll just have to see how it goes at Iowa. Currently, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 98, and it's really, really easy to envision more if he ever gives baseball his full attention. His slider looks like an absolute weapon at its best and he also shows good feel to spin a curveball, though for now the changeup is virtually non-existent. The 6'4" righty repeats his delivery well and stays around the zone with his stuff, so additional focus on pitching should help him get to above average command. We are talking about a huge ceiling for Brecht, with the potential to become the Big Ten's best arm since Max Meyer. For now though, we have a long way to go and we still don't have his full attention. That level of natural talent is just unbelievable.

9. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Stanford (Madison Central HS, MS). 2021 rank: #71.
Braden Montgomery's #71 ranking is actually as a position player, where he's a switch hitter with strong feel for the barrel and some power projection. Most don't think he has quite as much impact potential as a pitcher, but he has a chance to prove them wrong with additional development at Stanford. The Jackson-area native will head a long way from Mississippi to Silicon Valley for school, where he'll simultaneously look to break into the outfield and the weekend rotation. On the mound, Montgomery shows a low 90's fastball that can get up to about 95, adding a very solid curveball and changeup that give him a great three pitch starting point. He's very poised on the mound and fills up the strike zone consistently, with an athletic, low effort delivery that could use some minor smoothing out on the arm path but which is otherwise pretty clean. He's been noted as a hard worker who really cares about his craft, so if anybody can manage the workload of developing as a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, it's him. A few years ago, we saw another BM, Brendan McKay, develop into a monster on both sides of the ball at Louisville. Montgomery probably won't match both his 2.23 career ERA and .966 career OPS, but he could be the best two-way star since McKay.

10. RHP James Peyton Smith, Northwest Florida State JC (East Robertson HS, TN). 2021 rank: #122.
James Peyton Smith was originally committed to Vanderbilt, but switched his commitment to Northwest Florida State in July so he could be eligible for the 2022 draft. Smith has seen his game grow and change over the past few years, and while Vanderbilt would have been a great place to hone his craft and put it all together, he may not have gotten as many innings as he might have liked and of course would have to wait until 2024 to get drafted. At Northwest Florida State, he'll have a much easier time finding innings and if he can put it together this spring, he could be the first JuCo pitcher drafted. The Middle Tennessee native has recently seen his fastball tick up into the mid 90's, reaching as high as 98 at his best from a low three quarters arm slot. His slider is an above average pitch at its best, while his curveball is a step behind. Smith shows great feel for his changeup, which will hold down the fort while he works on the consistency of his breaking balls. The 6'4" righty hasn't quite shown consistent feel to spot his newfound, loud stuff, though he has been a good strikethrower in the past and may just need more time to get used to the mid 90's bullets coming from his right arm. It does take some effort for him to tap that big stuff, leading to reliever risk, and he'll look to the coaching staff in Niceville to help smooth that out a bit. Regardless, I expect him to carve up Florda JuCo hitters next spring and rank among the national leaders in strikeouts at that level. If he doesn't quite get things where he wants by the 2022 draft, he can always go back for another year or transfer to another Division I program. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for his class.

11. RHP Eric Hammond, Southern California (Keller HS, TX). 2021 rank: #130.
UCLA is bringing in the best recruiting class in the country, but their cross town rivals did land Eric Hammond, who has a chance to be a first rounder in 2024. Hammond, a Texan with strong familial ties to California, already sits in the low 90's and can get up to 95-96 with plenty more projection in the tank. He also throws a slider, curve, and changeup, all of which are trending upwards and flash above average and should give him a complete arsenal to use in Los Angeles. He's generally around the zone, though command is going to be a focus point in his development over the next few years. The Dallas-Fort Worth product has a very slow, deliberate start to his delivery, but rushes through his arm stroke and finish which can affect his ability to repeat his release point. Cleaning that up is likely all that stands between Hammond and starting in pro ball. The 6'4" righty offers a ton of projection and should continue to add power to his stuff, and he has a chance to be one of the best pitchers on the West Coast over the next few seasons if he develops like he's expected to. USC missed out on Marcelo Mayer, who in my opinion was the best high schooler in the entire draft class by a fair margin, but should still be happy that they landed their future Friday night starter.

12. LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt (Benedictine Military HS, GA). 2021 rank: #135.
Ask any hitter on the showcase circuit last year, and they'll tell you Carter Holton was one of the toughest at bats they had. He'll head to Vanderbilt with one less arm to compete with now that James Peyton Smith is going the JuCo route, but no matter what the situation is in Nashville, it's always tough to find innings on that staff. Holton should be up for the task rather quickly as he shows strong feel for pitching and shouldn't have too steep of a transition to facing SEC lineups, though he still should get better and better during his time there. For now, he sits in the low 90's but can get up to 96 with his fastball, adding a sweepy curve and slider that can blend into each other and a very solid changeup that plays well off the rest of his arsenal. He comes in with some crossfire action that puts tough angle on the ball and adds perceived sweep to his breaking balls, but still fills up the strike zone more often than not. 5'11" lefty lacks projection and probably won't add a ton more velocity, but as Tim Corbin and co. help him get a bit more consistent in repeating his delivery and perhaps tighten up his breaking balls a bit, we could have a Friday night man by 2024, which is no small task at Vanderbilt. He mixes his pitches extremely well and improving his command from average to above average, which I see as highly likely, will make him exactly the kind of pitcher that carves up SEC lineups as if he's still in high school. The Savannah native's size probably makes it less likely he emerges as a first round pick, but he has a very good shot at working his way into the second round range.

Others:
#141 RHP Brandon Neely, Florida (Spruce Creek HS, FL)
#157 RHP Cale Lansville, Louisiana State (Thunder Ridge HS, CO)
#164 LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida (Plant HS, FL)
#171 RHP Will Koger, Louisville (Bardstown HS, KY)
#178 RHP Max Debiec, Washington (O'Dea Catholic HS, WA)
#182 RHP Luke Holman, Alabama (Wilson HS, PA)
#187 LHP Pierce Coppola, Florida (Verona HS, NJ)
#190 RHP Roman Kimball, Notre Dame (P27 Academy, SC)