Thursday, August 24, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

The Orioles have gotten better and better at drafting, and this class doesn't disappoint. They only signed one catcher and one infielder, both on day three, instead focusing almost exclusively on outfield and pitching help. Speed is a major theme for the position players here, and of course nobody embodies it better than first round pick Enrique Bradfield. In fact, every outfielder drafted could be described as a plus or better runner. On the mound, the Orioles found athletes that moved well on the mound, looking for malleable clay they could take to the next level in their excellent player development system. Lastly, I'll note that the Orioles brought in some excellent baseball names with this class, my favorites being Tavian Josenberger, Teddy Sharkey, Kiefer Lord, Braxton Bragg, and Blake Money.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-17: OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $4.17 million. Signing bonus: $4.17 million.
My rank: #18. MLB Pipeline: #21. Baseball America: #16. Prospects Live: #16.
Sometimes, you really have to work to make a player profile interesting. Not this time. Enrique Bradfield is one of the most unique players in the class, with an old school brand of baseball that just might be primed for a comeback. A potential top 100 pick out of high school in South Florida, Bradfield priced himself out of the draft and instead headed to Vanderbilt, where he has only built his draft stock. He hit the ground running, literally, with a .336 batting average, a .451 on-base percentage, and 46 stolen bases as a true freshman in 2021, then went a perfect 46 for 46 in stolen bases in 2022. The numbers were down a touch in 2023, where he slashed .279/.410/.429 with six home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. If you've watched SEC baseball at all over the past three years, you know one thing about Bradfield – he can fly. Indeed, he probably provides more value on the basepaths than any player in all of college baseball, with blazing, top of the scale speed combined with excellent instincts that make him a generational baserunner, plain and simple. In three years at Vanderbilt, he stole 130 bases in 191 games and was caught just 13 times, despite the fact that opposing catchers knew he was running almost every time. Bradfield is no slouch at the plate, either. He's extremely patient with chase rates well below 20%, helping him draw a ton of walks and post a career .425 on-base percentage and a 14.6% walk rate against very strong competition. When he does swing, he rarely misses, with a line drive stroke geared towards all-fields contact that lets his wheels do their thing. He's the consummate leadoff hitter in every way. Built like a string bean at 6'1", his power is below average and will always be below average, though he can ambush you to the pull side and could flirt with double digit home run totals. It's not surprising that his defensive profile mirrors his offensive profile, with that elite speed playing up further due to strong reads and routes that could earn him Gold Gloves in the future. There's not much arm strength here, but his plus-plus range more than makes up for that and he'll provide plenty of value in center field. Overall, it's a very polished profile with a true outlier tool that could provide Baltimore with a leadoff hitter and basestealing threat for years to come. He's on his way there already, slashing .364/.563/.409 with 15 stolen bases and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio through fourteen games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

2-53: OF Mac Horvath, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: $1.58 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($182,900 below slot value).
My rank: #58. MLB Pipeline: #82. Baseball America: #67. Prospects Live: #60.
Mac Horvath is a pretty interesting prospect in his own right that does a lot well. He was a solid prospect as a draft eligible sophomore in the 2022 draft, but returned to UNC and put up a huge junior season, slashing .305/.418/.711 with 24 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 61/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. Horvath provides a coveted combination of power and athleticism that is hard to find, especially outside the first round. He packs plenty of lean strength into his 6'1" frame, which he combines with an innate ability to lift the ball with authority to produce plus game power, in fact blasting 42 home runs in 123 games over the past two seasons and popping for seven in the elite Cape Cod League. Horvath is also a very disciplined hitter that, like Enrique Bradfield, rarely chases, helping him consistently find pitches he can drive. The pure bat to ball skills are more average here because he does have a power-over-hit approach, and he does get into trouble in some of those deeper counts with a strikeout rate north of 20%. There are also some concerns about his ability to catch up to premium velocity, though he did slash .250/.330/.490 on the Cape. The Minnesota native is also a plus runner and uses his athleticism well at third base with plenty of range, though he could use a little more refinement on the defensive side. He could end up in a corner outfield spot, and that's where the Orioles drafted him, where his speed and arm strength will play well. Horvath's ability to time up premium stuff in the zone will determine how far he goes in pro ball, but the ceiling here is that of a 25-30 home run hitter that draws plenty of walks, steals some bases, and plays a solid third base. That's a nice profile even if the batting averages may never be anything special. They're certainly special to this point in the minors, where he's slashing .346/.500/.692 with a pair of home runs and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

CBB-63: RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $1.24 million. Signing bonus: $1.61 million ($361,800 above slot value).
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #167. Baseball America: #69. Prospects Live: #58.
As it turns out, the Orioles ended up giving Jackson Baumeister about $200,000 more than they gave Mac Horvath, signing him to just over the slot value for Horvath's draft position. Baumeister is a bit of a divisive prospect, but I'm fully on board with this pick and he actually has many similarities to current Orioles prospect Chayce McDermott. Baumeister was a premium prospect out of Jacksonville's Bolles School, alma mater of Chipper Jones, in 2021, but made it to campus at Florida State and was eligible as a sophomore this year. His 2023 numbers weren't the prettiest, with a 5.09 ERA and a 95/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, but they were pretty solid for the offense-friendly environment we found ourselves in this year. Baumeister sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 98, playing up with flat plane and hop that make it a plus pitch. Though he's still refining his breaking balls, he shows great feel to spin them, especially his above average curveball with power snap. He's working in his slider more as well and that should become at least an average, if not an above average pitch in the future. The changeup is also a work in progress and probably a fourth pitch at this point, as he can slow down his arm at times that lacks big tumble. The 6'4" righty has plenty of projection remaining and showcases his athleticism on the mound, with great extension and an explosive lower half that mean the sky could be the limit. The command isn't quite there yet as he's still learning to repeat that explosive delivery, and that does make for some relief risk. Personally, I'm bought in, and I think the Orioles have a great opportunity to take this excellent ball of clay and refine it into a mid-rotation arm. The fastball, feel for spin, and athleticism are there, so he really just needs refinement.

3-86: RHP Kiefer Lord, Washington {video}
Slot value: $808,200. Signing bonus: $760,000 ($48,200 below slot value).
My rank: #74. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #97. Prospects Live: #71.
Kiefer Lord presents another interesting ball of clay for the Orioles' player development system to play with. Originally a product of Carleton College in Minnesota, he transferred to Washington this past season and put up some gems early in the season, including against Northern Colorado (6 perfect innings, 10 K's) and Stanford (8 shutout innings, 3 baserunners, 10 K's). Those starts on the heels of a loud fall put him into top fifty pick consideration, but he slumped later in the season and put up an 18.22 ERA over his final four starts, boosting his season ERA to from 3.63 to 6.19 to go with a 78/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings. At his best, Lord sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and runs it into the upper 90's, showing some nice life on the pitch to boot. He flashes with both his curveball and his slider, though they can blend into each other and are still searching for their identities a bit, similar to his changeup. His lack of a consistent, reliable offspeed pitch may have contributed to his late season struggles as his fastball velocity dipped, but he's shown enough at his best to inspire confidence he can pull it together. The 6'3" righty is very projectable and moves well on the mound, which bodes well for his ability to hold his stuff over a long season and stick in the rotation, and that athletic delivery helps him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. If he can take a step forward with any one of his offspeed pitches to keep hitters off his fastball, he becomes a mid-rotation candidate in a hurry. In his first appearance in the Florida Complex League, he tossed two shutout innings on one walk, one hit batsman, and one strikeout.

3-100: OF Tavian Josenberger, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $671,800. Signing bonus: $603,000 ($68,800 below slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #156. Baseball America: #246. Prospects Live: #125.
This fits into the Orioles' early day two preferences as a high performing outfielder with a smattering of fun tools. Tavian Josenberger, a Kansas transfer, had a breakout season despite the jump in competition from the Big 12 to the SEC, slashing .286/.414/.490 with ten home runs and a 51/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Razorbacks. There is no standout tool here like Enrique Bradfield's speed or Mac Horvath's power/speed combo, but it's an extremely balanced profile reminiscent of recent Orioles picks like Donta' Williams and Reed Trimble. Josenberger is a twitchy athlete that can whip the barrel through the zone with authority from both sides of the plate, producing sneaky pull side power with natural loft. However, I wouldn't expect more than perhaps 15 home runs per season as he switches over to wood bats as he's not the most physical player in this class at an even six feet tall. He's a patient hitter that draws a ton of walks, in fact doing so at an excellent 17.2% clip this spring, which helps him tap his power more often in games because he finds good pitches to hit. That masks largely average bat to ball skills, and like Horvath, he can get into trouble in deeper counts and ran a strikeout rate above 20%. The Kansas City-area product is a versatile defender that will likely see most of his time in the outfield for Baltimore, where he profiles as a plus defender and could stick in center field. I see this as a fourth outfield profile with a solid all-around bat and nice speed. He's off to a bit of a slower start, slashing just .152/.339/.196 with a 12/13 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

4-118: RHP Levi Wells, Texas State {video}
Slot value: $563,600. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($63,600 below slot value).
My rank: #107. MLB Pipeline: #96. Baseball America: #111. Prospects Live: #81.
Back to the pitching ranks, Levi Wells has been on scouts' radars for a while now. A well-known prospect out of La Porte High School east of Houston, he made it to campus at Texas Tech but struggled badly with command and transferred a little closer to home at Texas State, where he has fit in much better. After establishing himself as a potential top 50 pick with a strong sophomore season (3.07 ERA, 86/32 K/BB), he was less consistent as a junior and finished with a 5.02 ERA and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings. He had some gems, including a thirteen strikeout complete game against Marshall, but also some duds, such as a start at Coastal Carolina in which he got blown up for eight runs in an inning and a third. Wells sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96 from a higher slot but getting great riding life on the pitch up in the zone that could make it a plus pitch if commanded more consistently. He adds a big, power curveball that functions as his out pitch, while his newer cutter/slider has developed quickly and his changeup is a bit behind. It's a really nice four pitch mix from a sturdy 6'2" frame that can be hard to find in the fourth round, though to this point he hasn't put it together consistently. Wells' command has really improved during his time in college as he's seriously toned down his delivery, but it's still fringy and he gets into trouble behind in counts when he leaves the ball over the plate. A tick more velocity on his fastball or a bit more consistency with his slider and changeup could render that less of an issue, as he is usually at least around the zone. It's a #3/#4 starter profile if he makes the adjustments he needs to make.

5-154: OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $396,700. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($21,700 below slot value).
My rank: #145. MLB Pipeline: #147. Baseball America: #140. Prospects Live: #128.
This is a boom/bust candidate if there ever was one. Jake Cunningham has extremely loud tools that rival those of second rounder Mac Horvath, but how they'll translate to pro ball remains to be seen. Cunningham had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (16 HR, .304/.410/.595) but a poorly timed ankle injury slowed him down out of the gate and he never quite got going fully, finishing 2023 with eleven home runs, a .267/.359/.519 slash line, and a 56/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. He has massive raw power from the right side, at least plus now and potentially greater in the future with 90th percentile exit velocities approaching 107 MPH in 2023. He's also a patient hitter that does a good job of making pitchers come to him, though the hit tool is well below average. Cunningham has long levers and some moving parts in his swing, leading to elevated swing and miss and a strikeout rate over 25% this year. Additionally, he struggled in a small sample on the Cape (.174/.269/.217) and was a non-factor against good competition in the Clemson Regional, where he struck out nine times in sixteen plate appearances. That's not going to cut it at this point. Meanwhile, he didn't get a chance to show it much in 2023 due to the ankle injury, but he's at least a plus runner when healthy if not approaching plus-plus. That speed adds an entire new dimension to his game, which is a major boon for him in the outfield where he projects to stick in center field. The Orioles are bought into the player they saw in 2022 and they believe that the tools are so loud here that it's worth gambling on questionable pure hitting ability. It's a bit reminiscent of the Jud Fabian pick last year, though Fabian was significantly more refined and went a few rounds earlier. In his two games in the Florida Complex League, he has three hits (all singles), two strikeouts, and three walks to this point.

6-181: RHP Jacob Cravey, Samford {video}
Slot value: $312,300. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($12,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #321. Prospects Live: #225.
In a year where many pitchers saw inflated ERA's due to college baseball's hitter-friendly environment, Jacob Cravey put up a career year with a 3.10 ERA and a 126/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Samford. Cravey is a big, physical right hander at 6'6", 215 pounds, possessing a low 90's fastball that touches 98 at best with great riding life from a higher slot. His slider has nice two plane bite and his changeup gets solid fade, making for a great baseline of a three pitch mix. The South Alabama native repeats his delivery well and shows average command, so the entire package looks like that of a back-end starter. Cravey is more about arm strength than athleticism or explosiveness, which may limit his ceiling a bit. Still, it's a nice high-probability starter package in the sixth round.

7-211: RHP Teddy Sharkey, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: $244,400. Signing bonus: $215,000 ($29,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #395. Prospects Live: #242.
Teddy Sharkey is the opposite of Jacob Cravey. While Cravey is a somewhat polished innings-eating starter type, Sharkey is a ball of fire that is likely a pure reliever at the pro level. He's coming off a great season as the Coastal Carolina closer in which he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 98 with great riding life, while his curveball and slider are both distinct, nasty breaking pitches that miss a ton of bats. The 6' righty has an uptempo delivery and his control is well ahead of his command, so it's unlikely that he makes the jump to starting in pro ball. His demeanor fits well in the bullpen, as he pitches with a ton of energy, attacks hitters with everything he has, and loves to compete. If the Jersey Shore native's command holds together in pro ball, he could move quickly as a reliever. In his first appearance in the Florida Complex League, he tossed two shutout innings on one walk and three strikeouts.

10-301: OF Matthew Etzel, Southern Miss {video}
Slot value: $167,000. Signing bonus: $167,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #229. Baseball America: #257. Prospects Live: #165.
This could be a sneaky good pick for the Orioles. Matthew Etzel began his career at Texas A&M, but quickly transferred to Panola JC in Texas and played two years there, where by the end of his sophomore season he began to earn serious draft consideration. Instead of going pro, he transferred again to Southern Miss where he was more good than great this year. He started slowly, not homering for the first two months of the season, but once he started turning on the ball and driving it with authority he was able to put together solid numbers, with a .316/.381/.470 slash line, 23 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. The Orioles are bought into that new and improved Etzel, who has a chance to be a dynamic talent. The Houston-area native has an adjustable barrel and can get to balls all over the zone, though he's less comfortable with offspeed stuff and that's something to watch for in his transition to pro ball. His quick hands and feel for the barrel give him sneaky power, with the chance to hit perhaps 10-15 home runs per season, though it will likely never be a huge part of his game. Etzel is an easy plus runner that can be a menace on the bases, and it also helps him play a pretty mean center field. He likely profiles as a fourth outfielder whose ability to be a net-positive in center will make him a valuable piece. He has had a solid transition to pro ball so far, slashing .278/.409/.481 with two home runs, a dozen stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

14-421: RHP Michael Forret, State College of Florida Manatee-Sarasota {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($300,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #407. Prospects Live: unranked.
All those little bits of money the Orioles saved here and there on day two added up to something to throw around, and while a few day three picks went unsigned, they landed fourteenth rounder Michael Forret for  early fifth round money. A true freshman this year, Forret posted a 3.34 ERA and a 106/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings on the Florida JuCo circuit, then impressed evaluators with a strong start for Falmouth in the Cape Cod League late in the draft cycle. Overall, the 6'3" righty brings a pretty advanced package for a teenager. He sits in the low 90's, touching 94 with riding life, while adding a nice diving slider and a fading changeup. None of his three pitches stand out as likely strikeout pitches at the next level quite yet, but he commands them well with conviction and offers plenty of projection in his lean frame. Once the Orioles iron out his delivery a little bit and help him tack on some weight, he could be sitting in the mid 90's while holding that above average command. He only turned 19 in April and offers a nice combination of safety and upside for under $500,000.

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