Saturday, August 26, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

The Giants dumped $7 million into their first two picks, giving them a two of the best high school prospects in the class at picks #16 and #52. Because second rounder Walker Martin signed for nearly double his slot value, they were forced to go below slot for nearly every pick for the rest of the draft, but they still came away with a very nice class even beyond the two stars at the top. Joe Whitman wasn't supposed to be available at their third pick and certainly wasn't expected to sign for as little as he did, while fourth rounder Maui Ahuna possesses a ton of talent for his $500,000 signing bonus even though his profile comes with significant drawbacks. I like this position player-heavy class a lot.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-16: RHP Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS [VA] {video}
Slot value: $4.33 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($329,100 below slot value).
My rank: #23. MLB Pipeline: #23. Baseball America: #22. Prospects Live: #19.
The Giants drafted Bryce Eldridge as a pitcher, but he's a true two-way player and a darn good one at that. One of the most interesting prospects in the class, he's a product of the same James Madison High School baseball program that I played for almost a decade ago and which has since produced Cubs 2021 second rounder James Triantos. Though he was drafted as a pitcher, I actually prefer his bat. He's a massive presence in the box at 6'7", giving him tremendous leverage in his left handed swing that translates to natural plus power. He doesn't need to sell out for that power, instead flicking his hands at the ball and letting those long arms and legs do the rest. Eldridge is a patient hitter that chooses good pitches to hit, though like many extra tall hitters, his long arms can create some swing and miss in the zone and that's perhaps his only drawback in the box. He is a better runner than you would think given his size, with surprising athleticism that helps him play a pretty nifty first base or could translate well to right field if he moves out there. On the mound, his height helps him create downhill plane that accentuates the running and sinking life on his low 90's fastball. The slider can be inconsistent at times, though at its best it shows hard, late bite and looks like an above average pitch, while his changeup has come along nicely in its own right. There's some minor head whack in his delivery which can lead to some command questions, but he's mostly around the zone and his athleticism should help him grow into that large body well. It's a pretty solid #3 starter profile. One thing to note is that he has missed some time with various nagging injuries over the past few seasons, but he looks fully healthy now. Eldridge has a chance to be a star on either side (or both sides?) of the ball for the Giants. He's only hitting for now, slashing .305/.400/.610 with five home runs and an 18/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 18 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A San Jose.

2-52: SS Walker Martin, Eaton HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: $1.62 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($1.38 million above slot value).
My rank: #21. MLB Pipeline: #30. Baseball America: #24. Prospects Live: #30.
It took nearly double the slot value to sign Walker Martin away from an Arkansas commitment, close to the value of the 27th overall pick, but the Giants got it done and brought in an incredible talent for the second round. Martin simply tormented Colorado high school pitching this spring, and there's no other way to spin it. He has an extremely athletic, projectable 6'2" frame that has done him well on the football field as well, but on the baseball field it gives him plus raw power that he tapped at will in games this spring. Beyond the power, his all fields approach has helped him handle advanced pitching well and he should have at least an average hit tool, giving him a potent all-around bat. Martin moves well at shortstop with quick feet and great athleticism, though he does like to gather himself before he throws and fore that reason he may fit better at second or third base. He's also an average runner, and together it's an extremely well-rounded profile. Perhaps the only true drawback here is his age, as the Colorado native turned 19 back in February, making him a full year older than most high school seniors and age appropriate for a college freshman. Other players with similar age questions such as Brett Baty and Colson Montgomery have performed well, and the hope is that Martin follows their path.

2C-69: LHP Joe Whitman, Kent State {video}
Slot value: $1.07 million. Signing bonus: $805,575 ($268,525 below slot value).
My rank: #49. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #35. Prospects Live: #37.
Joe Whitman had serious helium late in the draft cycle, pushing himself into the first round conversation with a strong finish to his junior year and one excellent, highly attended start in the Cape Cod League. Many were surprised to see him drop all the way to the second compensation round, and even more surprised to see him sign for over $250,000 below slot value. If you look at the rankings above, you can see that I wasn't exactly the high man on Whitman, but in this situation that's great value. He's coming off an excellent season at Kent State in which he posted a 2.56 ERA and a 100/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 innings. Whitman sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can run it up to 97 in short stints and consistently touches 95 in longer outings, though the movement on the pitch is more average. His slider is his best pitch with great diving action that helps it miss a ton of bats, while his changeup gives him one of the better left handed cambios in the class. It's a really nice three pitch mix that gets boosted further by solid average command that should be above average in time. The 6'5" lefty is plenty durable and repeats his delivery very well, and it all adds up to a high probability #3 or #4 starter package. Whitman could move quickly through the Giants' system. So far, he has allowed one run over four innings in the Arizona Complex League, striking out four against one walk.

3-85: SS Cole Foster, Auburn {video}
Slot value: $820,900. Signing bonus: $747,500 ($73,400 below slot value).
My rank: #117. MLB Pipeline: #95. Baseball America: #124. Prospects Live: #102.
The Giants went under slot again, as they will do for much of the rest of the draft, here in the third round. Cole Foster was a prominent draft prospect out of Plano Senior High School in Texas in 2020, but made it to campus after the shortened draft and has improved every year at Auburn. He put together a career year in 2023, slashing .336/.429/.570 with 13 home runs and a 50/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games and establishing himself as a top three rounds prospect. There's no one standout tool here, but Foster does a lot of things well with average tools across the board. He's a switch hitter that takes good at bats from both sides of the plate, showing solid power that will play best to the pull side with wood bats that could help him produce 15-20 home runs per season. The bat to ball skills are decent, though he did strike out in 19% of his plate appearances in 2023. The Dallas-area native has experience all over the diamond and could profile in a super-utility role with a solid arm and good glovework in both the infield and outfield, though his lack of true explosiveness may limit his effectiveness at the premium positions of shortstop and center field. If any one of his tools can take the next step in pro ball and get to above average, he has a chance to be an everyday player somewhere on the diamond. So far, he's slashing .250/.281/.467 with five home runs and a pretty ugly 30/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A San Jose.

4-117: SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $569,100. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($71,600 below slot value).
My rank: #109. MLB Pipeline: #48. Baseball America: #72. Prospects Live: #132.
Maui Ahuna was one of the more polarizing prospects in this year's class, as you can tell by the rankings above, and it turns out that those of us that were lower on him were more in line with the league's perception than those that were higher on him. Ahuna began his career at Kansas, where he thrust himself into first round conversations with a massive sophomore year in 2022 (.396/.479/.634). When head coach Ritch Price retired after the season, he transferred to Tennessee for his junior year but was exposed a bit by SEC pitching, slashing .312/.425/.537 on the year with eight home runs and a 77/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. Still, he remains a very interesting prospect. He's an extremely streaky hitter that can get red hot and carry an offense, showing average power and an all fields approach that leads to plenty of opposite field extra base hits. His left handed swing can get swoopy at times and he can be prone to chasing offspeed pitches below the zone, leading to a fringy hit tool, though that aforementioned willingness to use the opposite field can help him dig himself out of holes in the count. The breaking balls are a major issue, though, as he struck out over 30% of the time this spring and over 50% of the time on the Cape last summer, and I'm not sold on his ability to handle pro offspeed stuff. Ahuna's glove buys the bat some slack, as he's a slick defender at shortstop that can make the big play, with a plus arm to boot that will make him an asset at the position. Throw in his above average speed and you've got yourself a very interesting, versatile defender. The bat may stop him from ever becoming a full time player, but the glove will carry him at least part of the way up the ladder and if he ever reins in his approach, he has a chance to not only play every day but provide impact in the lineup. It's a true boom or bust profile. 

5-153: 2B Quinn McDaniel, Maine {video}
Slot value: $400,600. Signing bonus: $300,450 ($100,150 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #240. Prospects Live: #322.
You don't see many Mainers in pro baseball, but Quinn McDaniel will join fellow Maine Black Bear Nick Sinacola (though a native of Massachusetts) in the Giants' system. McDaniel has been a menace in the America East Conference for a couple years now, putting up his best year yet in 2023 with a .354/.513/.688 slash line, 16 home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a 44/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. It's a pretty unique profile, as it turns out. He sets up with a big, slow leg kick that acts as a timing mechanism, almost touching his hands to his knee before bringing them back up and slashing them through the zone with impressive quickness. Undersized at 5'11", his quick hands help him tap some moderate power to the pull side, though his 16 home runs in 2023 may have been evidence of him teeing off average pitching in the America East. McDaniel is a very patient hitter that walked in 23% of his plate appearances, which will force pro pitchers to come right after him. We'll see if he can tone down his operation in the box enough to handle what's coming. Defensively, his plus speed should help him stick at second base if he can clean up his actions a little bit. The southern Maine native is young for the class, not set to turn 21 until late September, which will give the Giants a little bit of time to play with his fun profile. So far, he's slashing .255/.449/.455 with three home runs and a 16/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A San Jose.

6-180: C Luke Shliger, Maryland {video}
Slot value: $314,800. Signing bonus: $272,500 ($42,300 below slot value).
My rank: #177. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #88. Prospects Live: #109.
I'm not quite as high on Luke Shliger as some other outlets, but I certainly think he has an interesting profile regardless. He's been a monster in the Maryland lineup over the past two seasons, slashing .345/.509/.588 with 23 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 98/123 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games combined. Shliger has a very unique approach in the box, setting up with his toes on the inside corner of the batters box in a manner that takes "crowding the plate" to an extreme. Indeed, he's been hit by 44 pitches over the past two seasons, with his 24 this past season finishing eighth in Division I and leading the Big Ten. He's also an extremely patient hitter, running an elite chase rate under 15% this past spring that was the second lowest of any hitter on my draft board and helping him run an exceptional .523 on-base percentage. That elite approach played up on the Cape, where he ran a .404 on-base percentage against some of the best arms in the country. The bat itself is a little more ordinary, though, with below average power that was made to look better by his hitter-friendly home park. He has a quick, uppercut lefthanded swing that helps him maximize what he does have, but with a 90th percentile exit velocity just over 100 and a maxed out 5'9" frame he's unlikely to be much of a power threat in pro ball. The Connecticut native is built like a catcher with a thick, stocky frame, and while he's scrappy back there with a catcher's mindset, his overall actions are more average with an average arm. He should stick but won't necessarily be an asset defensively. Overall, I struggle to see much upside here beyond that of a backup catcher, which is why my ranking was a bit behind the other publications, but he does possess that coveted outlier trait in his approach. His early numbers are right in line with expectations, slashing .279/.380/.326 with a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 12 games with Low A San Jose.

8-240: RHP Josh Bostick, Grayson JC [TX] {video}
Slot value: $198,800. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($198,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #176. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #251.
Though most of their bonus pool money was tied up by Walker Martin in the second round, the Giants managed one more significant over slot bonus for Josh Bostick, giving him fifth round money to sign away from a UT Arlington commitment. Bostick has bounced around the JuCo scene and landed at Grayson JC in North Texas this past spring, then went on to impress in a short Cape Cod League stint before the draft. He sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 at best, up significantly from last year (where I am 40% sure I hit a double off of him in a Dallas-area men's league game, but it was probably his brother, I can't remember), with some nice riding action as well. His secondaries are inconsistent but his slider flashes above average, while his changeup is fringier. He's still learning to harness his improved stuff but he has a ton of arm strength and doesn't need to expend too much effort to reach his velocity, giving hope he can have at least average command down the line. If Bostick can bring his changeup and command along just a little farther, he has a chance to be a #4 starter. So far, he has allowed two earned runs over 4.2 innings with seven strikeouts to two walks in the Arizona Complex League.

11-330: C Jack Payton, Louisville {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($25,000 above slot value).
My rank: #195. MLB Pipeline: #148. Baseball America: #116. Prospects Live: #306.
Jack Payton was eligible last year, but has steadily improved during his time at Louisville and worked his way into being a very solid prospect in this year's draft. He tripled his home run total from four to twelve while slashing .374/.472/.642 with a 41/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games, looking like one of the few bright spots on a disappointing Cardinals team this year. Payton has fringy to average tools across the board, profiling as a potential backup catcher. His compact right handed swing gets on plane early and naturally elevates the ball, a little reminiscent of former teammate Henry Davis, helping to maximize his fringy raw power in games. His approach is average, with a bit of a tendency to chase but pretty good ability to make contact around the zone. Overall, it's probably a 45 grade hit tool and 45 power, which is useful from a catcher. Behind the plate, he's decent enough to continue getting opportunities to catch in pro ball, but it will take some work and his arm is fringy. If he has to move to a corner outfield spot, I'm not sure his bat will stand up to the increased scrutiny, so his best route to the majors is certainly through refining his defense. So far, he's slashing .289/.360/.400 with a home run and an 11/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A San Jose.

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