The Rangers' system lacks many impact prospects past their big four of Josh Jung and Sam Huff on the offensive side and Hans Crouse and Cole Winn on the pitching side, but there is some depth here and a lot of potential hidden gems. On the offensive side, most of the system's depth comes at the corner infield spots, interestingly enough, as Jung, Davis Wendzel, Sherten Apostel, Jonathan Ornelas, and Curtis Terry all look like they could be future major league starters, though the system is thin elsewhere among position players after guys like Anderson Tejeda, Chris Seise, and Bubba Thompson had lost seasons due to injuries, poor performance, or both. On the mound, despite lacking a true standout (Crouse and Winn would like to claim that title but have serious question marks), there are actually a ton of guys that you could almost call sleepers. Joe Palumbo and Brock Burke have been prospects for long enough that they're pretty well known, and Tyler Phillips has started to creep onto prospect lists, but guys like Jason Bahr, Noah Bremer, Ronny Henriquez, Jake Latz, Ricky Vanasco, and others have been really flying under the radar. Unfortunately, as with the position players, injuries have been troublesome, as A.J. Alexy, Cole Ragans, and Owen White combined for just 19.1 innings this year, all thrown by Alexy.
Affiliates: AAA Nashville Sounds, AA Frisco RoughRiders, High A Down East Wood Ducks, Class A Hickory Crawdads, short season Spokane Indians, complex level AZL and DSL Rangers
Catcher
- Sam Huff (2020 Age: 22): Perhaps the best thing to happen to the Rangers system in 2019, Huff was a seventh round pick out of a Phoenix high school in 2016 then spent two unremarkable years playing complex ball in his home city before slashing a decent .241/.292/.439 with 18 home runs at Class A Hickory in 2018. Returning to the level as a 21 year old in 2019, he lasted just 30 games after slashing .333/.368/.796 with 15 home runs and a 37/6 strikeout to walk ratio, earning a promotion up to High A Down East and slashing .262/.326/.425 with 13 home runs and a 117/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 games there. Huff has huge raw power, perhaps up there with Joey Bart and Adley Rutschman as the most for any catcher in any system. His feel for the barrel improved remarkably in 2019, and he was able to get to it consistently enough to hit 28 home runs in pitcher-friendly leagues, but he remains far from a finished product. Huff is an extremely aggressive hitter who still has clear holes in his swing, and those were exploited a bit at times in High A this year. He's also improving with the glove and should be able to stick back there, but again, there's still work to do there. He's a classic Rangers prospect in that he has a high ceiling, one of a Gary Sanchez-type catcher, but also a lot of risk.
- Heriberto Hernandez (2020 Age: 20): It's unlikely that Hernandez sticks behind the plate, as Yohel Pozo and Randy Florentino are much better back there and much more likely to end up as backups to Sam Huff, but there's little question that Hernandez can hit. He generates a ton of torque from the right side of the plate and gets the barrel to the ball extremely quickly, and that's helped him put up monster numbers so far in his career. Combined in his two years of complex ball, he's slashed .320/.450/.635 with 23 home runs and a 101/82 strikeout to walk ratio in 113 games (.292/.464/.635 in DSL in 2018, .344/.463/.646 in AZL in 2019). Complex-level statistics can be funky because most of these guys are teenagers fresh off the island or fresh out of high school, but that kind of consistent performance over 113 games (he also went 3-8 in short season ball) combined with the simple eye test in batting practice certainly bode well for his future as a potential 20 homer, solid on-base guy. Now defensively, he could end up as a catcher, a first baseman, or a corner outfielder, and obviously his value decreases in the likely event he's not a catcher. We'll just have to see how he handles short season and perhaps Class A in his age-20 season.
- Keep an eye on: Alex Kowalczyk, Yohel Pozo, Matt Whatley, Randy Florentino
Corner Infield
- Josh Jung (2020 Age: 22): The eighth overall pick out of Texas Tech in 2019, Jung demolished complex level pitching for four games (10-17, 2B, 3B, HR) before evening out a bit at short season Spokane (.287/.363/.389, 1 HR, 29/16 K/BB in 40 games). A native Texan who grew up in San Antonio, Jung is an extremely advanced hitter who understands the strike zone, finds the barrel consistently, and can hit it hard and far. There's no question he'll be able to put up high on-base percentages in the majors, but so far, Jung hasn't translated all his hard hit balls into much over the fence power. He mostly hits line drives for now, and that helped him slash .348/.455/.576 with 32 home runs in 187 games at Texas Tech, but the Rangers are going to want him to figure out how to lift the ball and start driving it in the air. Defensively, he has a cannon arm but his range needs work if he'll want to stick at third base, and if he's moved to first, the pressure will really be on for him to develop that power. I'm not particularly worried about the power, though, and I think it will come and he'll eventually hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages.
- Sherten Apostel (2020 Age: 21): Originally signed by the Pirates for $200,000 out of Curacao, Apostel was traded to the Rangers in the Keone Kela deal in 2018 and he's consistently gotten better and better as a hitter. In 2019, his first taste of full season ball, he slashed .251/.339/.440 with 19 home runs and a 120/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Hickory and High A Down East. He's an explosive player with a lot of power in his lanky 6'4" frame, and he managed to get to it much more consistently at Hickory this year (.258/.332/.470) when he finally started getting the ball off the ground and into the air. He was back to pounding the ball into the ground up at Down East (.237/.352/.378), but he doesn't turn 21 until spring training and he has plenty of time to figure it out. He's also still learning the nuances of the game at third base, where he has a cannon arm like Jung and more range but doesn't have as consistent a glove. He started to realize his big upside in 2019 and the hope is that he builds on his success in 2020, his age-21 season.
- Davis Wendzel (2020 Age: 22-23): After taking native Texan third baseman Josh Jung in the first round in 2019, the Rangers dipped back into the Texas college ranks and grabbed Baylor third baseman Davis Wendzel, though Wendzel is a native of Southern California. He's a bit older for a college junior draftee, as he'll turn 23 in May, but his bat is advanced enough that that shouldn't be too much of an issue. Over a brief, seven game debut between complex ball and Spokane, he slashed .316/.458/.526 with a home run, a pair of stolen bases, and six strikeouts to five walks, and he should move quickly through the minors with his good plate discipline and ability to find the barrel. He employed more of a line drive-heavy approach at Baylor, and adding some loft could make him be a 20 homer threat in the majors, and his ability to get on base will increase his offensive value as well. He's a better defender at third base than Jung, Apostel, or any other name on the corner infield list here, so if anyone's getting forced over to first base, it's probably not Wendzel. That's good, because his bat profiles much better at third.
- Curtis Terry (2020 Age: 23): Terry was a 13th round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, and the Rangers have brought him along extremely slowly, finally giving him his first taste of full season ball this year. After slashing .337/.434/.606 with 15 home runs as a 21 year old in short season ball in 2018, he split 2019 between Class A Hickory and High A Down East and slashed .293/.362/.537 with 25 home runs and a 117/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games. He's a hulking hitter at 6'3" and 265 pounds, but with that big frame comes an explosive swing and big power that he has gotten to more and more regularly – basically Sherten Apostel if he gained 60 pounds. He's an aggressive hitter that doesn't draw a lot of walks, but his hit tool is solidly decent and it should play up at least to the upper minors if not farther. As a first baseman in a Rangers system that's deep there, he'll have to keep his on-base percentages reasonably above .300 no matter what his power looks like, but the ceiling here is an impact bat that could make the Rangers look really smart with the way they've handled his development. He's a sleeper to watch, though he's got quite a few players ahead of him on the depth chart.
- Keep an eye on: Andy Ibanez, Ryan Dorow, Andretty Cordero, Tyreque Reed, Blaine Crim
Middle Infield
- Nick Solak (2020 Age: 25): A Yankees second round pick out of Louisville in 2016, Solak has already been traded twice, heading to Tampa in the three team Steven Souza/Brandon Drury deal in spring training 2018 and then on to the Rangers for Peter Fairbanks mid-season 2019. Between the two farm systems, Solak slashed .289/.362/.532 with 27 home runs and a 105/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at hitter-friendly AAA, then continued to hit in his call-up to the Rangers, slashing .293/.393/.491 with five home runs in 33 games. He's remarkably consistent at the plate, as his slash lines have looked nearly identical everywhere he's played, and with those still-consistent MLB numbers, he's really easy to project as a hitter with 15-20 homer pop and good on-base percentages. Defensively, he's more of a question mark, as he's improving but still shaky at second base and may be moved to the outfield. Expect him to play an important role on the 2020 Rangers, either as an offensive-minded backup or as a starter at some position or another.
- Eli White (2020 Age: 25-26): Another guy you can expect to see in the big leagues in 2020, White slashed .253/.337/.418 with 14 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 138/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at hitter-friendly AAA Nashville. He's unlikely to ever be a full-time starter, but his competency with both the bat and the glove point to a nice career as a utility or super-utility guy. He has modest but present power, a sound approach, some speed, and can handle shortstop, which makes him major league ready and exactly the kind of guy you want on your bench. There's really not much else to say about White, just expect to see the Clemson product in uniform at the Rangers' brand-new stadium at some point next year.
- Anderson Tejeda (2020 Age: 21-22): It was a lost season for Tejeda, who slashed .259/.331/.439 with 19 home runs at High A Down East in 2018 before hitting just .234/.315/.386 with four home runs and a 58/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games at the same level this year. He's still young, as he doesn't turn 22 until May and he already has 279 games under his belt in full season ball, but he still has considerable work to do on his game. There's plenty of raw power despite his 5'11" stature and his great defense at shortstop buys his bat time, but he needs to improve his plate discipline and learn to recognize pitches. There's the upside of a 20-25 homer bat with average on-base percentages and great defense, though there's considerable risk as well.
- Jonathan Ornelas (2020 Age: 19-20): Ornelas, like Nick Solak, isn't for sure a middle infielder, as he's seen significant time at shortstop, second base, third base, and the outfield already. However, with some of the Rangers' best prospects manning the hot corner for now, he's more likely to end up at second or short despite his defensive skill set fitting best at third. Ornelas was a third round pick out of a Phoenix-area high school in 2018, and he had a reasonably successful first full season in 2019 by slashing .257/.333/.373 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 103/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at Class A Hickory. He's grown an inch in the Rangers' system and offers some real power potential, though he hasn't yet tapped it and has employed more of a line drive approach in pro ball. The good news is that he has shown the ability to handle mid-minors pitching at a young age, and he still won't turn 20 until May. The hope is that Ornelas can start to tap into that power and become a 15-20 homer bat if not more, and that should be something to focus on in 2020.
- Chris Seise (2020 Age: 21): Since Tejeda is safely ahead of Ornelas in the minors for now, Ornelas' primary competition to stick at the premium position is Chris Seise, a first round pick out of an Orlando-area high school in 2017. Unfortunately, shoulder injuries wiped out his 2018 season and ended his 2019 season just 21 games in, where he slashed .241/.272/.356 with a 33/3 strikeout to walk ratio at Hickory. After all the time off, it's hard to say exactly what kind of a player Seise is today, though we do know he's a supreme athlete with speed and very good defense at shortstop. That means that if both he and Ornelas hit enough, it will be Seise who remains a shortstop and Ornelas who will have to go elsewhere on the diamond. When healthy, Seise some power projection in his 6'2" frame and has shown the ability to make consistent contact, but he has a lot to prove after all the time off.
- Maximo Acosta (2020 Age: 17): Signed for $1.65 million out of Venezuela in July, Acosta is an excellent all-around player for his age. He has an advanced approach at the plate and an explosive, line drive swing from the right side, one that could give him above average power once he adds some loft. He's also a good defender at shortstop that should stick there, and he's fast enough to make an impact on the bases. Of course, Acosta has yet to even play in complex ball, so he's all projection at this point, but the Rangers have a lot of money invested in him and he'll be interesting to track as he begins his slow trek up through the minors.
- Keep an eye on: Charles Leblanc, Yonny Hernandez, Osleivis Basabe, Cody Freeman
Outfield
- Leody Taveras (2020 Age: 21): The top outfield prospect in a shallow system at that position, Taveras has tantalized with his tools while putting up solidly satisfactory numbers. In 2019, he slashed .279/.344/.376 with five home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a 122/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at High A Down East and AA Frisco, showing off his variety of ways to impact the game. He doesn't hit for a ton of power and probably never will, as he's instead content with just getting the barrel to the ball and going with the pitch. He keeps his strikeouts reasonably low, draws a few walks, and can use his plus speed to steal plenty of bases. That speed helps him in the outfield, where he's a plus defender who will stick in center field. If you're thinking of current center fielder Delino DeShields, that's a pretty solid comparison, though Taveras should have better pure hitting ability and he's a bit more wiry at 6'1" while DeShields is more compact at 5'9". He probably won't begin 2020 in the majors, but it's not out of the question that Taveras could get there at some point next season, at least for a short stint.
- Julio Pablo Martinez (2020 Age: 24): A Cuban defector who signed for $2.8 million before the 2018 season, Martinez has been a little more up and down than the Rangers would have liked. Overall in 2019, which he spent mostly at High A Down East, the 23 year old slashed .248/.317/.421 with 15 home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a 156/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games. However, hidden in the stats is the big turnaround he had mid-season; as of June 7th, he was slashing .164/.223/.322 through his first 42 games in High A, but he turned it around to slash .298/.374/.475 over his final 71 games. Listed at 5'9" and 175 pounds, he's not the most imposing guy in the world, but he uses his elite bat speed and ability to find the barrel to hit for power and average when he's going right, though his aggressive approach limits his walks. He's also one of the faster players in the Rangers' system, which gives him a chance to be a 20-20 player in the majors. The often-complicated defection process from Cuba means that he'll turn 24 just before the 2020 season, so the coming season will be an important one for his development.
- Bubba Thompson (2020 Age: 21-22): A Rangers first round pick in 2017 out of a Mobile, Alabama high school, drafted three spots before Chris Seise, Thompson had a good run through Class A Hickory in 2018 (.289/.344/.446) before struggling to keep up with High A pitching in 2019, slashing .178/.261/.312 with five home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 72/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games at Down East. Hand and hamstring injuries have slowed his development so far, and while that didn't appear to affect his production in 2018, it may have in 2019. When healthy, he's a very good athlete with power and speed, the latter of which has played up more in games (44 stolen bases in 141 games the last two seasons) than his power (13 home runs in same span). However, with the lost season in 2019, I wouldn't be so quick to label him a future impact player, and while he certainly has the potential to be one if he can put it all together, there's a good chance he ends up more of a fourth outfielder. How he bounces back in 2020, and whether he can stay healthy, will be big in telling us that.
- Pedro Gonzalez (2020 Age: 22): Acquired from the Rockies for Jonathan Lucroy, Gonzalez has spent two years at Class A Hickory but he started to turn the corner in 2019, slashing .248/.317/.471 with 23 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 129/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games there. He's a big guy at 6'5" with long arms and legs, and he got much better at leveraging that size to drive the ball over the fence in the South Atlantic League this year. He also has considerable speed for someone his size, and he's consistently improved his baserunning year by year, setting a career high in both stolen bases (14) and stolen base success rate (70%) in 2019. He's an aggressive hitter who still needs to tone down the swing and miss in his game, but his good defense and ability to be a well above average right fielder buys his bat some time. Overall, it's a platoon/bench bat projection.
- Bayron Lora (2020 Age: 17): The Rangers signed Lora, a Dominican outfielder who only turned 17 in September, for $3.9 million in August, and he's yet to play in professional games. However, Lora already puts on a show in batting practice with his ability to drive the ball out of any park, and his thick 6'3" frame helps him tap that power relatively easily. His hit tool is still unproven against professional pitching, and he'll have to prove he can keep his strikeouts down and find the barrel enough to get to his power, but the upside is enormous and if the Rangers get lucky, they could have a 30-40 home run bat in a future right fielder.
- Keep an eye on: Hunter Cole, Kellen Strahm, Alexander Ovalles
Starting Pitching
- Joe Palumbo (2020 Age: 25): It's been a long road to the majors for Palumbo, who spent five years in high school on Long Island, pitched for a mens league team his senior year, and signed for $30,000 in the 30th round in 2013 rather than attend San Jacinto College. He finally reached full season ball in 2016 but went down with Tommy John surgery in 2017, then returned for a strong 2018 season. This year, he posted a 3.01 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 108/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings between AA Frisco and AAA Nashville, then got knocked around with a 9.18 ERA and a 21/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 16.2 major league innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball from an extremely easy left handed delivery, and he adds a bat missing curveball that should continue to work for him well at the major league level. He also adds a changeup and profiles well as a #3 or #4 starter, and his easy delivery should theoretically help him stay healthy as he puts that Tommy John surgery farther in the rearview mirror.
- Brock Burke (2020 Age: 23-24): Another high school lefty who was drafted a long time ago, Burke was a third round pick by the Rays in 2014 out of the Denver area. He was since traded to Texas as part of the three team deal that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland and Emilio Pagan to Tampa, and in a blister-interrupted 2019, he posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 64/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, mostly at AA Frisco. He also made six MLB starts and posted a 7.43 ERA and a 14/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.2 major league innings. He has a pretty straightforward profile as a 6'4" lefty who sits in the low to mid 90's, adds a solid slider and changeup, and who fills the zone with enough strikes to make his stuff play up. Nothing jumps off the page with him, but his combination of solid stuff and command makes him very useful as a starting pitcher and one who should get a chance to compete for a spot in the Rangers rotation in 2020.
- Tyler Phillips (2020 Age: 22): A 16th round pick out of a Philadelphia-area high school in 2015, Phillips took a few years to get his footing in the minors but took off once he finally did in 2018. He had a 2.64 ERA and a 127/16 strikeout to walk ratio in A ball in 2018, then in 2019, he posted a 3.71 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 102/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 innings at High A Down East and AA Frisco. The numbers were a lot better at Down East (1.19 ERA, 28/6 K/BB) than Frisco (4.73 ERA, 74/20 K/BB), but he was only 21 years old in the upper minors and he maintained his control of the strike zone. Phillips sits in the low 90's with his fastball, though his true out pitch is his fading changeup with serious arm side movement. He also adds a curveball with downer action but not a ton of bite, as well as a new slider that could be the last bump he needs to reach the majors. Of course, his best asset is his command, which ties everything together and makes everything play up. The 6'5" righty might not be as well known as Palumbo or Burke or the younger guys you'll read about next in Hans Crouse and Cole Winn, but he's a sleeper to watch.
- Jason Bahr (2020 Age: 25): Bahr's meteoric rise as a pitcher has been a fun one to follow, as he was actually cut from the UCF baseball team at one point simply because he wasn't that great of a pitcher. He managed to work his way back onto the team and was drafted in the fifth round by the Giants in 2017, then was sent to the Rangers in 2018 as the Giants packaged him with Austin Jackson and Cory Gearrin's salaries. After strong seasons in 2017 and 2018, he had a breakout 2019 in which he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 126/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Down East and AA Frisco. As a former senior sign, he's a bit older and will turn 25 before the 2020 season, and while his fastball only sits around 90, his secondaries have gotten sharper and his curveball and changeup should be usable major league pitches. His solid command and good feel for pitching help him keep the ball off the barrel, and he could rise up as a #4 or #5 starter in the near future.
- Hans Crouse (2020 Age: 21): Crouse has always been an exciting pitcher, and that led the Rangers to select the 6'4" righty in the second round out of a Southern California high school in 2017. He held a 1.93 ERA in limited action over his pro debut and first full pro season, then spent 2019 at Class A Hickory and had a 4.41 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 76/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 87.2 innings. He's a funky guy, both by his personality and by his pitching style, and he sits in the mid 90's with his plus fastball while adding a quickly improving slider, one which was slurvy in high school but which has tightened into a real weapon in pro ball. Because he has a lot of effort in his funky delivery, he will always face reliever questions as long as he's a prospect, but he throws a surprising amount of strikes given his profile and the development of that slider is a huge move in the right direction. While Crouse's statistics were unremarkable this year, and part of that may have been due to nagging bone spur problems that were corrected this offseason, the improvements he made to his game make him easily the most exciting pitching prospect in this system.
- Cole Winn (2020 Age: 20): Winn, a first round pick out of a Southern California high school in 2018 (though he grew up in Northern Colorado), had an unremarkable stat line in his first full season in the Rangers system, posting a 4.46 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 65/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.2 innings at Class A Hickory. However, it was a tale of two seasons for him after he started with a 9.35 ERA and a 19/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings in his first six starts, turning that around to post a 2.81 ERA and a 46/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings in his final 12 starts. In an interview with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, he said that the difference was that he began to trust his stuff rather than nibble, and if he can stay in that mindset, he should be able to get back on track next year. When he's at his best, he has four pitches including a low to mid 90's fastball, two good breaking balls, and a changeup, and as an amateur he commanded all of his pitches well. His stock is down a tick just because of the uneven first full season, but he does have the upside of a #2 starter.
- Noah Bremer (2020 Age: 23-24): Here's a sleeper. Bremer was a sixth round pick out of Washington in 2017, and he spent most of 2019 at High A Down East, posting a 2.86 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings. He's 6'5" and has added a tick of velocity since college, now sitting in the low 90's while bringing in a good curveball and a decent changeup. It plays up both because he has good command and because he has a deceptive delivery where he rocks back before firing from a high arm slot afforded to him by his height, and he projects as either a #5 starter or a bullpen guy.
- Yerry Rodriguez (2020 Age: 22): Rodriguez dominated in his stateside debut in 2018, then carried it over to 2019 where he had a 2.08 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 85/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Class A Hickory. He's continued to add velocity and now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, though his secondary stuff haven't quite come all the way along yet. His plus command makes everything play up for now, though it would be nice to see him sharpen that secondary stuff so that he can be more than the #5 starter he's otherwise projected as.
- Ryan Garcia (2020 Age: 22): After grabbing slugging Texas collegians Josh Jung and Davis Wendzel with their first two picks in 2019, the Rangers pivoted to take UCLA righty Ryan Garcia in the second round. Garcia absolutely dominated in a strong Pac-12 this year, then allowed two runs while striking out eight and walking two over five innings in his pro debut. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider, a good changeup, and the occasional curveball, but he has great command and really knows how to pitch, making all his stuff play up significantly. Right now, he has the ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter, though he's a bit slight in stature and may eventually move to the bullpen. Either way, he should move fairly quickly through the minors.
- Ronny Henriquez (2020 Age: 19-20): Henriquez is only listed at 5'10" and 155 pounds, but he made the jump from complex ball in 2018 straight to full season ball in 2019, where he had a 4.50 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 99/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings at Hickory. He has a lot of work to do in getting more consistent with his secondary stuff and proving his durability, but he handled Class A well as a teenager and showed good athleticism and command to go with his live arm and low to mid 90's fastball. There's significant relief risk here but he's interesting, I'd keep an eye on Henriquez as a sleeper.
- Keep an eye on: A.J. Alexy, Tim Brennan, Reid Anderson, Jake Latz, John King, Ricky Vanasco, Cole Ragans, Owen White
Relief Pitching
- Emmanuel Clase (2020 Age: 22): Clase sits in the upper 90's with his fastball, bumps triple digits regularly, and gets a ton of riding action on it that makes it nearly impossible to square up. What more do you need to know? In 2019, Clase had a 2.82 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 50/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.2 innings at High A Down East and AA Frisco, then had a successful MLB debut in which he posted a 2.31 ERA and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings. His slider stands out more for its velocity, around 90 MPH, than its movement, but it's a good enough secondary pitch that it gets swings and misses from major league hitters regardless. He actually throws his share of strikes, which is far from a given when pitchers throw 100, and he should be able to settle in as a set-up man at the major league level in 2020.
- Jonathan Hernandez (2020 Age: 23-24): Hernandez spent most of his pro career as a starter, but he shifted to the bullpen late in 2019 and that's where he'll stay most likely. This year, he had a 5.16 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 95/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at AA Frisco, then put up a 4.32 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 19/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.2 major league innings. He's a 6'2" righty with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and a slider that misses bats, and now that he's in the bullpen, he can focus on those two pitches while going to his more average curveball and changeup less often. He was indeed more effective once he switched to the bullpen, where he had a 1.80 ERA and a 12/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 15 innings before he was called up, and he should be a real asset starting in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Cole Uvila
Showing posts with label Josh Jung. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Josh Jung. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Saturday, July 20, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Texas Rangers
First five rounds: Josh Jung (1-8), Davis Wendzel (CBA-41), Ryan Garcia (2-50), Justin Slaten (3-86), Cody Freeman (4-115), Kellen Strahm (5-145)
Also notable: Cody Bradford (6-175), Gavin Collyer (12-355), Mason Cole (27-805)
It was certainly a Texas-themed draft for the Rangers, as five of their first seven picks had some connection to the state of Texas whether it was a college or a hometown. They use their first two picks to save money on big time Texas college hitters, though overall, this wasn't the typical Rangers draft because they focused more on safety than on upside. Jung was my personal favorite pick overall, though overall aside from all the Texans (even fourth rounder and California high schooler Tyler Freeman was committed to Baylor), it was a fairly unremarkable draft, at least for now.
1-8: 3B Josh Jung (Texas Tech, my rank: 9)
The Rangers started it off in-state, grabbing who I would call the best second-tier college hitter in the country (the first tier being Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, and JJ Bleday). Josh Jung, a San Antonio native out of Texas Tech, had a huge sophomore season in 2018 by slashing .392/.491/.639 with 12 home runs, and he was again one of the best hitters in the country in 2019. This year, he slashed .343/.474/.636 with 15 home runs and a 43/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, showing off a broad range of skills on the offensive side of the ball. Jung is 6'2" and he produces a ton of hard contact all over the field, and adding a little bit of loft could make him a legitimate threat for 25-30 home runs annually. He also has exceptional plate discipline and walked in 17.5% of his plate appearances this year, and his ability to wait for his pitch and barrel it up will certainly help his power play up in pro ball. There are some questions about his raw power given his current swing path and his bat speed, but he's such a competent hitter that he should be able to be a middle of the order bat at the major league level. Defensively, he has a very strong arm but he's still working on the glove side of things over there, and there is still a chance he ends up having to slide over to first base. Still, his bat will profile there. He signed for $4.4 million, which was $780,000 below slot, and he's slashing .433/.485/.667 with a home run and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Hickory.
CBA-41: 3B Davis Wendzel (Baylor, my rank: 66)
Davis Wendzel may not be a true Texan like Jung, having grown up in Southern California (where he attended high school with Royce Lewis and Chase Strumpf), but three years in Waco makes him an honorary Texan that's good enough for the Rangers. Wendzel was draft eligible as a sophomore last season, but after slashing .310/.435/.532, he elected to return to Baylor and that turned out to be a wise decision. Despite missing some time with an oblique injury, he slashed .367/.484/.610 with eight home runs and a 37/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games, powering the Baylor offense to the Los Angeles regional. You can't miss him on the field; Wendzel might have been the most recognizable player in college baseball this year, as his beard/mullet combination is the stuff of legends. He has a big swing that has some length to it, but his great bat speed helps him hit the ball hard all over the field and over the fence. He also has solid plate discipline, and if he can add some loft to his swing, he could hit for both power and a high on-base percentage. Defensively, he's very competent at third base and should be a net positive there, with his gamer mentality helping everything play up. On the flip side, Wendzel turned 22 in May, making him the second oldest of the 78 players drafted on Day One and giving him less development time than his peers. Together, he has the upside of 20 home runs and high on-base percentages annually as well as good defense at third base. Of course, you have to take his age into account, and a realistic middle projection would be for 15 home runs and decent on-base percentages annually. He signed for $1.6 million, which was $210,000 below slot.
2-50: RHP Ryan Garcia (UCLA, my rank: 92)
I already spoke of Mississippi State's Ethan Small (Brewers), Missouri's TJ Sikkema (Yankees), and Texas A&M's John Doxakis (Rays) dominating the SEC in previous draft reviews, but UCLA's Ryan Garcia deserves just as much credit in the Pac-12. The LA-area native was untouchable for the Bruins this season, posting a 1.44 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 117/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings, including a 1.64 ERA in his tough conference slate. He won't blow anyone away with his stuff, using a low 90's fastball with some run, a solid slider, and a decent changeup to keep hitters always off balance. He has great command and exceptional feel for pitching, and those attributes will have to carry him through pro ball because he's only six feet tall and probably won't add much velocity. Because he's set there, the Rangers will want to work with him on sharpening and refining those secondary pitches so that his margin for error can grow, and he has the ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter. Working in his favor is that he also thrived in the elite Cape Cod League last summer, where he had a 1.29 ERA and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 28 innings. Garcia signed at slot for $1.47 million and has a 3.60 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio over five innings between the Arizona League and short season Spokane.
3-86: RHP Justin Slaten (New Mexico, unranked)
Getting back to the Texas theme, the Rangers took New Mexico hurler Justin Slaten, who grew up in the small East Texas town of Hallsville, near Longview. Slaten posted a 7.02 ERA as a sophomore this year but bounced back in a big way this year, posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 98/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, a good slider with two-plane break, and a developing curveball and changeup. The command is average if possibly a tick below, but he's got some upside with that projectable frame and could be a mid rotation starter if he refines his curve and/or changeup and gets more consistent with his command. Otherwise, his fastball/slider combination will play well in the bullpen. Slaten signed for $575,000, which was $224,700 below slot, and he has a 5.14 ERA, a 2.00 WHIP, and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seven innings between the Arizona League and Spokane.
4-115: SS Cody Freeman (Etiwanda HS [CA], unranked)
Indians prospect Tyler Freeman is slashing .315/.393/.436 in A ball this year, and now the Rangers have drafted his younger brother. Cody Freeman isn't a standout in any aspect of the game, but he's a very competent player with an all-around skill set, somewhat of a break from the typical toolsy, unrefined Rangers prospects you usually hear about. He has a smooth swing from the right side and even though he's a skinny 5'10", there is some power projection in there because he does a good job of creating leverage with his bat. Couple that with his good plate discipline, and you can see a potential high on-base percentage guy with 10-15 home runs per season and some speed. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at shortstop due to his feel for the game, though he would probably be a cleaner fit at second base. Committed to Baylor (more Texas!), Freeman signed for $900,000, which was $397,700 above slot, and he's slashing .245/.355/.302 with an 8/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games in the Arizona League.
5-145: OF Kellen Strahm (San Jose State, unranked)
Kellen Strahm is a college outfielder, but he's still somewhat of a similar player to Freeman. Known more as a slap hitter over his first two years at San Jose State, but be broke out this year with a .382/.487/.546 slash line, six home runs, and a 21/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games. The Eugene, Oregon native has a line drive swing and great feel for the barrel that enables him to drive the ball around the field, and his advanced approach will help that hit tool play up. He's 6'1", but he ultimately doesn't project for much more power and should remain more of an on-base type, and should hit 5-10 home runs annually in the majors with solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he is a smart player who should stick in center field, and ultimately he projects as a solid fourth outfielder. His ceiling is fairly limited due to his age, as he's a senior who turned 22 in April, but his competency for the game makes him a low-risk player. Strahm signed for $205,000, which was $170,200 below slot, and he's slashing .300/.385/.378 with two home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 19/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games, mostly with Spokane.
6-175: LHP Cody Bradford (Baylor, unranked)
Another pick, another Texan. Wendzel's teammate over at Baylor is a pitchability type who could have gone three rounds higher if he stayed healthy and pitched well this spring, though Cody Bradford instead missed most of the season with shoulder surgery. Bradford comes from Aledo, Texas, just passed where the Fort Worth suburbs end, and he posted a 4.91 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven innings before his surgery this season. His sophomore year was a better showcase of his ability where he had a 2.51 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings for the Bears. The 6'3" lefty uses his clean delivery to sit around 90 with his fastball when healthy, adding a decent curveball and a good changeup with plenty of fade. He commands everything well, and as a lefty with some height, the Rangers might be able to get a little more velocity out of him and turn him into a #4 starter. Of course, shoulder surgery (in this case for thoracic outlet syndrome) is anything but a smooth ride, so the very first thing on Bradford's docket will be getting and staying healthy, something that isn't a guarantee with these injuries. He signed for $700,000, which was $415,800 above slot, so the Rangers are clearly confident that he will recover.
12-355: RHP Gavin Collyer (Mountain View HS [GA], unranked)
My rankings went 140 deep this year, and Gavin Collyer was unfortunately the last guy out. Collyer is a 6'1" righty from the Atlanta area, showing plenty of arm strength and skills to work with but a long way to go one the mound. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and his slider can have really good shape at times, but it can also flatten out and become hittable. Collyer also throws with a lot of effort, leading to injury and relief concerns, but he's very skinny and has plenty of room to add good weight, so his quick arm should enable him to sit in that velocity range with less effort in the future if he takes well to the Rangers development program. It's a very high risk pick, but he has upside and joins a lot of similar arms in the Texas system. Committed to Clemson, he signed for $585,000, which counted for $460,000 against the Rangers' bonus pool.
27-805: RHP Mason Cole (Texas A&M, unranked)
I had to get one more Texan in here because why not. The A&M righty grew up in Round Rock, in the Austin area, but he has barely pitched upon getting to College Station due to multiple injuries. Mason Cole has actually only thrown 17.1 innings in three years for the Aggies, this year posting a 5.40 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings. When healthy, which isn't often, he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and show a good splitter, and at 6'6", he generates good plane on the ball. Given his injury history that includes both his elbow and shoulder, he's probably strictly a reliever for the Rangers, but the fastball/splitter combination could be a great find if he stays healthy. He signed for $85,000.
Also notable: Cody Bradford (6-175), Gavin Collyer (12-355), Mason Cole (27-805)
It was certainly a Texas-themed draft for the Rangers, as five of their first seven picks had some connection to the state of Texas whether it was a college or a hometown. They use their first two picks to save money on big time Texas college hitters, though overall, this wasn't the typical Rangers draft because they focused more on safety than on upside. Jung was my personal favorite pick overall, though overall aside from all the Texans (even fourth rounder and California high schooler Tyler Freeman was committed to Baylor), it was a fairly unremarkable draft, at least for now.
1-8: 3B Josh Jung (Texas Tech, my rank: 9)
The Rangers started it off in-state, grabbing who I would call the best second-tier college hitter in the country (the first tier being Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, and JJ Bleday). Josh Jung, a San Antonio native out of Texas Tech, had a huge sophomore season in 2018 by slashing .392/.491/.639 with 12 home runs, and he was again one of the best hitters in the country in 2019. This year, he slashed .343/.474/.636 with 15 home runs and a 43/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, showing off a broad range of skills on the offensive side of the ball. Jung is 6'2" and he produces a ton of hard contact all over the field, and adding a little bit of loft could make him a legitimate threat for 25-30 home runs annually. He also has exceptional plate discipline and walked in 17.5% of his plate appearances this year, and his ability to wait for his pitch and barrel it up will certainly help his power play up in pro ball. There are some questions about his raw power given his current swing path and his bat speed, but he's such a competent hitter that he should be able to be a middle of the order bat at the major league level. Defensively, he has a very strong arm but he's still working on the glove side of things over there, and there is still a chance he ends up having to slide over to first base. Still, his bat will profile there. He signed for $4.4 million, which was $780,000 below slot, and he's slashing .433/.485/.667 with a home run and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Hickory.
CBA-41: 3B Davis Wendzel (Baylor, my rank: 66)
Davis Wendzel may not be a true Texan like Jung, having grown up in Southern California (where he attended high school with Royce Lewis and Chase Strumpf), but three years in Waco makes him an honorary Texan that's good enough for the Rangers. Wendzel was draft eligible as a sophomore last season, but after slashing .310/.435/.532, he elected to return to Baylor and that turned out to be a wise decision. Despite missing some time with an oblique injury, he slashed .367/.484/.610 with eight home runs and a 37/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games, powering the Baylor offense to the Los Angeles regional. You can't miss him on the field; Wendzel might have been the most recognizable player in college baseball this year, as his beard/mullet combination is the stuff of legends. He has a big swing that has some length to it, but his great bat speed helps him hit the ball hard all over the field and over the fence. He also has solid plate discipline, and if he can add some loft to his swing, he could hit for both power and a high on-base percentage. Defensively, he's very competent at third base and should be a net positive there, with his gamer mentality helping everything play up. On the flip side, Wendzel turned 22 in May, making him the second oldest of the 78 players drafted on Day One and giving him less development time than his peers. Together, he has the upside of 20 home runs and high on-base percentages annually as well as good defense at third base. Of course, you have to take his age into account, and a realistic middle projection would be for 15 home runs and decent on-base percentages annually. He signed for $1.6 million, which was $210,000 below slot.
2-50: RHP Ryan Garcia (UCLA, my rank: 92)
I already spoke of Mississippi State's Ethan Small (Brewers), Missouri's TJ Sikkema (Yankees), and Texas A&M's John Doxakis (Rays) dominating the SEC in previous draft reviews, but UCLA's Ryan Garcia deserves just as much credit in the Pac-12. The LA-area native was untouchable for the Bruins this season, posting a 1.44 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 117/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings, including a 1.64 ERA in his tough conference slate. He won't blow anyone away with his stuff, using a low 90's fastball with some run, a solid slider, and a decent changeup to keep hitters always off balance. He has great command and exceptional feel for pitching, and those attributes will have to carry him through pro ball because he's only six feet tall and probably won't add much velocity. Because he's set there, the Rangers will want to work with him on sharpening and refining those secondary pitches so that his margin for error can grow, and he has the ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter. Working in his favor is that he also thrived in the elite Cape Cod League last summer, where he had a 1.29 ERA and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 28 innings. Garcia signed at slot for $1.47 million and has a 3.60 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio over five innings between the Arizona League and short season Spokane.
3-86: RHP Justin Slaten (New Mexico, unranked)
Getting back to the Texas theme, the Rangers took New Mexico hurler Justin Slaten, who grew up in the small East Texas town of Hallsville, near Longview. Slaten posted a 7.02 ERA as a sophomore this year but bounced back in a big way this year, posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 98/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, a good slider with two-plane break, and a developing curveball and changeup. The command is average if possibly a tick below, but he's got some upside with that projectable frame and could be a mid rotation starter if he refines his curve and/or changeup and gets more consistent with his command. Otherwise, his fastball/slider combination will play well in the bullpen. Slaten signed for $575,000, which was $224,700 below slot, and he has a 5.14 ERA, a 2.00 WHIP, and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seven innings between the Arizona League and Spokane.
4-115: SS Cody Freeman (Etiwanda HS [CA], unranked)
Indians prospect Tyler Freeman is slashing .315/.393/.436 in A ball this year, and now the Rangers have drafted his younger brother. Cody Freeman isn't a standout in any aspect of the game, but he's a very competent player with an all-around skill set, somewhat of a break from the typical toolsy, unrefined Rangers prospects you usually hear about. He has a smooth swing from the right side and even though he's a skinny 5'10", there is some power projection in there because he does a good job of creating leverage with his bat. Couple that with his good plate discipline, and you can see a potential high on-base percentage guy with 10-15 home runs per season and some speed. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at shortstop due to his feel for the game, though he would probably be a cleaner fit at second base. Committed to Baylor (more Texas!), Freeman signed for $900,000, which was $397,700 above slot, and he's slashing .245/.355/.302 with an 8/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games in the Arizona League.
5-145: OF Kellen Strahm (San Jose State, unranked)
Kellen Strahm is a college outfielder, but he's still somewhat of a similar player to Freeman. Known more as a slap hitter over his first two years at San Jose State, but be broke out this year with a .382/.487/.546 slash line, six home runs, and a 21/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games. The Eugene, Oregon native has a line drive swing and great feel for the barrel that enables him to drive the ball around the field, and his advanced approach will help that hit tool play up. He's 6'1", but he ultimately doesn't project for much more power and should remain more of an on-base type, and should hit 5-10 home runs annually in the majors with solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he is a smart player who should stick in center field, and ultimately he projects as a solid fourth outfielder. His ceiling is fairly limited due to his age, as he's a senior who turned 22 in April, but his competency for the game makes him a low-risk player. Strahm signed for $205,000, which was $170,200 below slot, and he's slashing .300/.385/.378 with two home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 19/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games, mostly with Spokane.
6-175: LHP Cody Bradford (Baylor, unranked)
Another pick, another Texan. Wendzel's teammate over at Baylor is a pitchability type who could have gone three rounds higher if he stayed healthy and pitched well this spring, though Cody Bradford instead missed most of the season with shoulder surgery. Bradford comes from Aledo, Texas, just passed where the Fort Worth suburbs end, and he posted a 4.91 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven innings before his surgery this season. His sophomore year was a better showcase of his ability where he had a 2.51 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings for the Bears. The 6'3" lefty uses his clean delivery to sit around 90 with his fastball when healthy, adding a decent curveball and a good changeup with plenty of fade. He commands everything well, and as a lefty with some height, the Rangers might be able to get a little more velocity out of him and turn him into a #4 starter. Of course, shoulder surgery (in this case for thoracic outlet syndrome) is anything but a smooth ride, so the very first thing on Bradford's docket will be getting and staying healthy, something that isn't a guarantee with these injuries. He signed for $700,000, which was $415,800 above slot, so the Rangers are clearly confident that he will recover.
12-355: RHP Gavin Collyer (Mountain View HS [GA], unranked)
My rankings went 140 deep this year, and Gavin Collyer was unfortunately the last guy out. Collyer is a 6'1" righty from the Atlanta area, showing plenty of arm strength and skills to work with but a long way to go one the mound. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and his slider can have really good shape at times, but it can also flatten out and become hittable. Collyer also throws with a lot of effort, leading to injury and relief concerns, but he's very skinny and has plenty of room to add good weight, so his quick arm should enable him to sit in that velocity range with less effort in the future if he takes well to the Rangers development program. It's a very high risk pick, but he has upside and joins a lot of similar arms in the Texas system. Committed to Clemson, he signed for $585,000, which counted for $460,000 against the Rangers' bonus pool.
27-805: RHP Mason Cole (Texas A&M, unranked)
I had to get one more Texan in here because why not. The A&M righty grew up in Round Rock, in the Austin area, but he has barely pitched upon getting to College Station due to multiple injuries. Mason Cole has actually only thrown 17.1 innings in three years for the Aggies, this year posting a 5.40 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings. When healthy, which isn't often, he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and show a good splitter, and at 6'6", he generates good plane on the ball. Given his injury history that includes both his elbow and shoulder, he's probably strictly a reliever for the Rangers, but the fastball/splitter combination could be a great find if he stays healthy. He signed for $85,000.
Saturday, May 18, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Third Basemen
There aren't any top-flight third basemen available, but once you dip into the middle/back of the first round and into the second and third, lots of options begin to emerge, especially on the college side. Some of these guys might need to move to first base long term (plus Tyler Callihan, who was included in the first base section), where pressure would rise on their bats, but all have at least a solid shot at sticking there. Most of these guys are power over hit, though Josh Jung and some of the third tier guys are notable exceptions to that.
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
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