Unpacking the San Diego Padres Trade Deadline

Acquired: RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, RHP Taylor Williams, RHP Austin Adams, RHP Dan Altavilla, 1B Mitch Moreland, C Austin Nola, C Jason Castro, OF Greg Allen, and a PTBNL

Traded: 3B Ty France, OF Josh Naylor, OF Edward Olivares, C Austin Hedges, C Luis Torrens, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Andres Muñoz, RHP Gerardo Reyes, minor leaguers OF Taylor Trammell, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, SS Owen Miller, 3B Hudson Potts, LHP Joey Cantillo, and two PTBNL's* (one PTBNL reported to be minor league RHP Matt Brash)

First off, wow. The Padres picked up an impact starting pitcher, four relievers, two catchers, a power bat, an extra outfielder, and a bonus PTBNL, only one of whom is a rental. And all it cost them was a set of 16 players, half of whom have major league experience. My two immediate takeaways: the Padres overpaid on a lot of these deals, but I commend them for doing so. In baseball, if you're not moving forward, you're going backwards, and they need to move forward if they want to catch the Dodgers and compete with the heavy hitters of the National League for years to come. In that sense, overpaying to get the job done was better than doing nothing at all. Even though 26 (!) players changed hands here, they still hung onto big name young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño, Ryan Weathers, and Cole Wilcox and young bats like Luis Campusano, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, and Hudson Head. I'd call that a win.

Obviously, I'm much more excited to talk about the prospects than the big leaguers, but let's run through the new Padres real quick.

New Bats

The most apparent upgrade here is swapping out Austin Hedges and Luis Torrens for Austin Nola and Jason Castro. Hedges and Torrens were hitting a combined .176/.266/.338 with three home runs in 36 games, while the new Nola/Castro combination comes in slashing .267/.355/.480 with seven home runs in 47 games. That's huge. While swapping out Hedges' steady glove for Nola's might sting a little bit, Nola has also played every other position but pitcher, shortstop, and center field over the last two seasons, giving San Diego a ton of flexibility to move him around the field and potentially give Castro more at bats. Mitch Moreland won't force Eric Hosmer off of first base, but he and his .328/.430/.746 bat will be a huge upgrade over the injured Tommy Pham (.207/.316/.293), Josh Naylor (.278/.316/.417), and Abraham Almonte (.111/.200/.111), who the Padres have been using in that spot. I think this transforms a top-heavy offense led primarily by Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Jake Cronenworth into a much more formidable, more balanced group that can try to keep up with the Dodgers. Lastly, Greg Allen is just a career .239/.295/.344 hitter, but his 94th percentile sprint speed makes him the fastest player on the team and, as a bonus, he grew up in San Diego, attending Hilltop High School in Chula Vista as well as San Diego State University.

New Arms

Clearly, Mike Clevinger is the headliner. Since the start of the 2017 season, he's 39-19 with a 2.97 ERA and a 534/175 strikeout to walk ratio across 470.1 innings – those are ace-caliber numbers. Additionally, the 29 year old is under contract through 2022 and should be affordable at that. Throw him in with Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Luis Patiño, and MacKenzie Gore, and the Padres have a legitimate rotation from top to bottom going forward (plus Zach Davies for 2021). Now, the bullpen. The fearsome trio of Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Craig Stammen combined for a 2.37 ERA over 212.2 innings in 2019, but that's jumped all the way to a 7.56 ERA in 33.1 innings this year. So, the Padres brought in four new relievers to counter that, especially given that Yates likely won't pitch the rest of the regular season. None of the four are necessarily stars, but Trevor Rosenthal, Dan Altavilla, Austin Adams, and Taylor Williams bring in some depth to help get them over the hump while those guys get back on track. Plus aside from Rosenthal, the other three are all under team control through 2023.

The Indians Haul

In trading Mike Clevinger, the Indians picked up easily the most capital from the Padres. Starting with the big leaguers, Cal Quantrill (age 25) has proven serviceable as both a starter and a reliever, and he'll have a chance to take over Clevinger's spot in the Cleveland rotation. The Ontario native fits the Indians mold as a polished strike thrower who can pitch well off his changeup, though the rest of his arsenal is pretty ordinary and he can be hittable when he misses in the zone. Moving forward, he'll probably be a back-end starter for Cleveland, though the Indians always have a host of starting pitchers coming up through their system which could force him out. He holds a 4.79 ERA and a 107/34 K/BB in 120.1 innings for his career. Josh Naylor (age 23) will join his younger brother Bo, who spent 2019 at Class A Lake County. Naylor is a bit younger and comes with more upside than Quantrill, and as a career .253/.315/.405 hitter with nine home runs in 112 games, he already has a little bit of track record under his belt at 23 years old. He controls the strike zone well with a solid 21% career strikeout rate, though while he shows some thump in his bat, it may not be enough to start full time with his first base/corner outfield profile. As a left handed hitter who has also shown the ability to hit same-sided pitching, he increases his base value as a bench bat and could fill in left, right, first base, or DH. At peak, we could see 20-25 home runs a year, but I think he'll be more in the teens. Then there's Austin Hedges (age 28), who is just a career .199/.257/.359 hitter, but it's not like Roberto Perez (.214/.304/.368) or Sandy Leon (.217/.284/.328) are much better. Now, the Indians have three top defensive catchers who can't hit, but while Leon is a free agent after the season, Hedges and Perez are both under contract through 2022. Those two should bridge the time until Bo Naylor works his way up.

Now onto the minor leaguers, which I prefer to talk about anyways. I'm extremely excited to see Joey Cantillo (age 20) in the Indians system, where he could really take off. He dominated A ball to the tune of a 2.26 ERA and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings in 2019, showing improved stuff across the board as he filled out his 6'4" frame. The stuff is decent, with a fastball around 90, a good changeup, and a huge downer curveball with tremendous depth but not a ton of velocity, but everything plays up because he gets great deception in his delivery and locates his pitches extremely well. That's exactly the kind of pitcher the Indians tend to do really well with, and I could really see him coming out a legitimate impact pitcher. Keep an eye on this one. Moving on, Owen Miller (age 23) is a sleeper type who has slashed .307/.367/.441 with 17 home runs over 205 games so far in his minor league career. He has exceptional natural feel to hit that helped him race from Illinois State to AA in less than a year, and while he doesn't hit for a ton of power, his ability to find the barrel consistently makes that moderate power up significantly. With Francisco Lindor looking like he'll be leaving Cleveland and no long term solution at second base, the middle infield is wide open and I could see Miller becoming a full time starter either at second base or shortstop in the near future. Coming up behind him is Gabriel Arias (age 20), who broke out with a .302/.339/.470 line and 17 home runs in High A in 2019. He has always been talented and the big breakout just confirms what evaluators already knew. Arias is an explosive hitter from the right side that put up those gaudy numbers against much older competition, but at this point, he's also very aggressive and will need to tone down his approach as he matures. Given his age, that's not overly concerning. What he did as a teenager in High A was impressive enough, and he's a great defender that could become Cleveland's shortstop of the future if he continues to progress. The youth and the glove give his plate discipline plenty of slack to catch up.

New Mariners

The most established player heading to the other end of I-5 is Ty France (age 26), a San Diego State product who was off to a hot .309/.377/.491 start over 20 games in 2020. He's not a huge guy at 5'11", but he has great feel for the barrel that enables him to make consistent hard contact and tap some power when he gets into one. Even though he's just 89 games into his MLB career, he's already appeared at first base, second base, third base, and even pitcher, bringing plenty of versatility to fill in in multiple roles or even sneak into a starting spot if Evan White, Shed Long, or Kyle Seager gets hurt. There's not much coming up through the system that would seem to threaten his playing time, either, and he's under team control for a long time. Definitely a nice depth add. Luis Torrens (age 24) hasn't made a ton of noise just yet, slashing .176/.256/.223 over 70 career games, but with Austin Nola leaving town, he'll have plenty of opportunity to try. Torrens has a classic backup catcher profile, with very strong plate discipline helping him tap some moderate power from the right side. At 24 years old, I'm not sure how much more he'll grow into, but he's been steadily hitting for more impact in the minors and he has a chance to hit for just enough in the majors to justify regular playing time, especially with his solid glove. He'll likely help bridge the gap until Cal Raleigh is ready. Andres Muñoz (age 21) is a really interesting one. The 6'2", 240 pound righty has a triple digit fastball that has touched as high as 104, and while his command is far from pinpoint, he's not wild either and is generally around the zone. He drops in a good, vertical slider, and the two pitches enabled him to post a 3.91 ERA and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings in 2019 at just 20 years old, though he's sitting out 2020 with Tommy John surgery. Once he comes back, Muñoz just needs to sharpen his command a little bit to become a legitimate late inning arm. Given his age, that's certainly possible, making him a really interesting one to watch in the Mariners' bullpen. Lastly, the one true prospect in this deal was Taylor Trammell (age 22), the well-known prospect who was previously involved in the Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig deal of 2019. His stock faded a bit with a so-so 2019 season in AA (.234/.340/.349, 10 HR), but there's still a lot to like in this buy-low prospect. He has really nice raw power that he taps naturally, and a patient approach has enabled him to handle advanced pitching throughout his career. Throw in above average speed, and he can really impact the game in a lot of ways. The 2019 season showed that he still has work to do in proving he can generate impact against top level pitching, though he was just 21 at the time. The Mariners are betting that additional development time will prove that to just be a blip on the radar, and that his work ethic, athleticism, and patient approach will come together for an all-around contributor at the major league level. Either way, we should see him in Seattle by 2021 at the latest.

Two New Red Sox Bats

In return for power bat Mitch Moreland, the Red Sox are bringing on two new minor league bats in Hudson Potts (age 21) and Jeisson Rosario (age 20). Potts is a power bat that crushed 56 home runs, 86 doubles, and six triples in 364 minor league games from 2017-2019. The Padres loved his power and pushed him aggressively, sending him to full season ball at 18 years old in 2017 and to High A and even AA as a 19 year old in 2018. He spent his age-20 season at AA again in 2019 and slashed .227/.290/.406 with 16 home runs in 107 games, a mixed bag of numbers given his age. The Red Sox look at how young he has been relative to his competition and think his plate discipline with a bit of acclimation, and while his power isn't quite of the standard of Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas, he's a better defender at third base who could stick there. However, with the presence of Rafael Devers in addition to Dalbec and Casas, he'll really have to earn that playing time. Rosario, meanwhile, hit just .242/.372/.314 over 120 games at High A last year, but he was also just 19 years old. The first thing that jumps off the page with Rosario is his patience, walking in 16.6% of his plate appearances last year despite his youth. He consistently works counts to hunt his pitch, though to this point, he hasn't hit for much impact with just 57 extra base hits over 289 games for his career. His approach is very contact-oriented, but he's very athletic and packs some lean strength into his 6'1" frame, so the Red Sox could tinker with his approach to tap some more power. At just 20 years old, he has plenty of time to experiment with different approaches to hitting, and his advanced plate discipline helps in that regard as well. He's a strong defender that should stick in center field, which also buys his bat more slack, so he's a high probability big leaguer in some capacity. If he can learn to generate more impact at the plate, he has a chance to start as a guy with 10-15 home runs a year and strong on-base percentages, though without significant gains in his power output, he's probably more of a fourth outfielder.

The Rest

I'll start with Edward Olivares (age 24) here. He's a huge get for the Royals after signing Trevor Rosenthal to a minor league contract, bringing a multitude of ways to impact the game. He hit .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 127 games in AA last year, and he's gotten his feet wet a bit in 13 games with the Padres (albeit at .176/.222/.294). There's no one carrying tool to Olivares' game, but he brings loose, easy power from a rangy 6'2" frame in addition to good feel for the barrel and nice speed as well. His aggressive approach will limit his on-base percentages in the majors, though his game fits well in that big Kansas City outfield and he has a chance to get lots of playing time pretty quickly. His ability to handle center field could bump Whit Merrifield to second base and Nicky Lopez down to the bench, and he also provides a controllable option to gradually take over for Alex Gordon slowly approaches retirement. Though he's not quite as fast, he should hit for more impact than Nick Heath, and with guys like Khalil Lee, Kyle Isbel, and Brewer Hicklen also working their way up, the future of the Royals outfield looks to be in a much more solid place. I don't necessarily see Olivares turning into a star, but he could be a 10-15 home run bat whose speed and defense helps him hold down regular playing time. Moving back to the West Coast, the Angels are picking up a power bullpen arm in Gerardo Reyes (age 27) in exchange for Jason Castro. Already 27, he's yet to do much at the major league level with a 7.62 ERA and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings last year, but the stuff is there for him to succeed. His fastball sits in the upper 90's and it isn't straight, either, with his lower arm angle putting great running and sinking action on it. He throws a short, tight slider that sneaks below bats and induces plenty of whiffs. He does a good job of filling up the strike zone but he struggles to hit individual spots, and going forward his success will likely hinge on that command. If he can tunnel his fastball and slider off each other, he has serious late inning potential. The Angels will try to get him there, but at 27 years old, he's not the youngest kid out there. And lastly, Matt Brash (age 22) isn't officially a Mariner just yet, but he's reported to be the player to be named later in the Taylor Williams deal. He was the Padres' fourth round pick out of Niagara University in 2019, then struck out eight over 5.1 innings (one earned run) in his pro debut that year. He looks like a reliever to the naked eye, showing a low 90's fastball that can creep up to 95 to go with a good changeup and a pair of decent breaking balls, all coming from a jerky delivery. However, Brash's pitch metrics are supposedly very good, and he has consistently performed at a high level everywhere he's gone. Additionally, he was showing a smoother delivery in 2020 in spring training, and he looks much more like a starting pitcher at this point. Brash probably profiles as a back-end starter, depending on the development of his offspeed stuff.

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: San Diego Padres

The Padres have depth everywhere you look, and on top of that, they have those kinds of impact prospects you want leading the way at most positions. MacKenzie Gore is of course one of the top pitching prospects in the game, possessing all of the qualities you look for in a prospect with the stuff, command, and competitiveness to profile at the top of the rotation. Behind him, Luis Campusano's breakout makes him one of the game's top catching prospects, while guys like Luis Patino, Taylor Trammell, Gabriel Arias, Hudson Potts, and Ryan Weathers keep working their ways up and look like they could be future stars. Then there's 2019 first round pick CJ Abrams, whose electric pro debut meant the Padres could feel comfortable trading Xavier Edwards, and Joey Cantillo, who came out of nowhere to have one of the finest statistical seasons in the minors. If pitchers like Pedro Avila, Anderson Espinoza, and Mason Thompson can make healthy returns in 2020, that would be big.

Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA Amarillo Sod Poodles, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, short season Tri-City Dust Devils, complex level AZL and DSL Padres

Catcher
- Luis Campusano (2020 Age: 21): A second round pick out of high school in Augusta, Georgia in 2017, Campusano turned in a fairly ordinary first full season in 2018 (.288/.345/.365) before breaking out in 2019. This past season, he hit 15 home runs and slashed .325/.396/.509 with a 57/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Lake Elsinore, numbers that remain great even when accounting for the California League bump. He packs a lot of strength into his 5'10" frame that enables him to hit for good power, but he really began to figure out pro pitching and was virtually impossible to strike out in 2019. That's huge, because given the raw power in his bat, he could hit for even more over the fence pop in 2020 and threaten for 20-25 home runs annually in the bigs if he decides to become a bit more of a free swinger. Defensively, he'll stick behind the plate with his strong arm, but he's a bat-first prospect that could push Francisco Mejia back to the outfield down the road.
- Blake Hunt (2020 Age: 21): While Campusano has blasted forward, Hunt has sort of flown under the radar, though the fellow 2017 draftee who went 30 picks later out of high school in Santa Ana fits nicely as a glove-first counterpart. In 2019, he slashed .255/.331/.381 with five home runs and a 67/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Class A Fort Wayne, like Campusano proving to be difficult to strike out but not hitting for nearly as much impact. He retains some power potential in his 6'3" frame, but at this point he's looking more like a glove-first backup who can provide a lot of value on defense. With Campusano's bat-first profile, they should make a solid duo in the majors down the road.
- Logan Driscoll (2020 Age: 22): Sneaking up behind Campusano and Hunt will be Logan Driscoll, taken in the second competitive balance round out of George Mason University in 2019. In his pro debut, he hit a strong .268/.340/.458 with three home runs and a 23/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at short season Tri-City, and he showed solid enough defense to project long term behind the plate. He's got some power and natural feel for the barrel in his 6'1" frame, and his strong plate discipline in college carried over to pro ball. That power/plate discipline combination should make him a net positive as a hitter, so long as the power plays up, though he has a long term projection as a backup catcher because he doesn't necessarily excel in any particular area.
- Keep an eye on: Jalen Washington, Juan Fernandez

Corner Infield
- Hudson Potts (2020 Age: 21): Similar to the Braves, whom I wrote up before the Padres, the one place this system lacks a ton of depth is in the corner infield. As I wrote for the Braves, that's quite alright, because middle infielders can often be shifted over here anyways. Additionally, Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado should have those spots locked down for a long time. Potts is the one standout in this group, a 2016 first round pick out of high school in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.302/.423 with 17 home runs and a 131/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games between AA Amarillo and complex level rehab work. He's an advanced hitter that could be an all-around asset at the plate, one who can find the barrel consistently against advanced pitching while using his strength and leverage to put up good power numbers. Very young for his class when he was drafted back in 2016, the Padres have pushed him aggressively anyways and the results have been more good than bat, with three straight seasons of at least 17 home runs and 23 doubles. The plate discipline has been so-so, but that's likely attributable to his age, as he played all of 2019 at just 20 years old in AA. My guess is he'll probably need a bit more seasoning in the upper minors, but he could develop into a 20-25 homer bat in the near future. I'm not quite sure where he'll play, because his natural third base is going to be occupied for a long time by Machado, but he could fit in at second base if he improves his range a little bit.
- Keep an eye on: Jason Vosler, Brad Zunica, Sean Guilbe

Middle Infield
- Jake Cronenworth (2020 Age: 26): Cronenworth was originally a Rays seventh round pick out of Michigan back in 2015, and he worked his way up slowly as a light hitting infielder. The juiced AAA balls did wonders for him in 2019, as he slashed .329/.422/.511 with ten home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 64/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games between AAA and complex level rehab, and after the season he was shipped to San Diego in the Tommy Pham/Hunter Renfroe deal. Cronenworth has always done a great job of controlling the strike zone and making for a tough at bat, but he began to hit for more impact in 2019 as he regularly found the barrel and the gaps. He profiles well as a utility infielder, though the bat might be just a bit too light to start full time. Additionally, the Rays actually tried him out as a reliever as well in 2019, and he responded with 7.2 shutout innings (with two unearned runs) and a 9/8 strikeout to walk ratio over seven appearances. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a really good curveball and cutter, though his command is still a work in progress. His future is mostly as a hitter, but he should be a serviceable reliever as well in 2020 if he can get more consistent with that command.
- Owen Miller (2020 Age: 23): A third round pick out of Illinois State in 2018, Miller has just flat out hit his way into the middle of the Padres future. After slashing .336/.386/.460 and hitting his way up to Class A in his pro debut, he skipped High A entirely and slashed .290/.355/.430 with 13 home runs and an 86/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Amarillo in 2019. Hitting like that in AA less than a year out of the mid major Missouri Valley Conference, where he faced schools like Valparaiso and and Evansville, speaks volumes to his natural feel for the game. Miller doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he finds the barrel so consistently and so easily that it plays up, and when you combine that with strong defense at second base and adequate defense at shortstop, he's a dark horse candidate to be the long term starter at the former position for San Diego. Expect Miller up in the majors as a utility infielder at some point in 2020 before challenging for that second base spot in 2021.
- Gabriel Arias (2020 Age: 20): The Padres signed Arias for $1.9 million out of Venezuela in 2016, and they've pushed him aggressively while letting him learn to hit pro pitching on the fly. After a couple of seasons with reasonably unremarkable numbers, he broke out in 2019 by slashing .302/.339/.470 with 17 home runs and a 128/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at High A Lake Elsinore as a teenager. He has an extremely quick bat from the right side that produces plenty of power, and he's gotten to it consistently against older pitching, showing his great feel for hitting in general. For now, he has a very aggressive approach that limits his walks and leads to some swing and miss, but he's also been young for his levels and those K/BB numbers should hopefully get a little closer together as he matures. Shortening his bat path might help as well, as his quick hands help him make up for a little bit of bat curl before the pitch but that might be more difficult against higher velocity at the higher levels. Arias is also a great defender that will stick at shortstop, giving him a profile as an all-around contributor. He won't unseat Fernando Tatis, but he could slide over to second base and win Gold Gloves there if he can beat out Owen Miller.
- Eguy Rosario (2020 Age: 20): As with most of their young prospects, the Padres pushed Rosario aggressively early, but when he hit .239/.307/.363 as an 18 year old in High A in 2018, they allowed him to repeat the level. The results were much better in 2019, when Rosario was a seasoned veteran at 19 years old, as he slashed .278/.331/.412 with seven home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 103/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Lake Elsinore. He's a little guy at a listed 5'9" and 150 pounds, but he packs a lot of strength in there to hit for some gap power that played as over the fence power in the hitter-friendly California League. He also has a very advanced approach for his age that enabled him to reach High A at 18 years old, and he brings some speed as well that has given him 86 stolen bases in 406 games overall. Rosario has more of a utility infield projection, but he's young enough to continue developing and make himself into more of an impact prospect with a nice season in AA in 2020.
- Tucupita Marcano (2020 Age: 20): Marcano is a really interesting prospect. The Venezuelan product slashed .270/.323/.337 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 45/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at Class A Fort Wayne in 2019, but he has still walked far more times in his pro career (99) than he has struck out (76). He's really skinny at 6' tall and is more of a slap hitter than anything else, but he finds the barrel so easily that he might be the most difficult player to strike out in the entire system. Set to play the entire 2020 season at 20 years old, he has time to fill out his frame and add more strength, which could help him tap some gap power and maybe some over the fence pop, which will likely be the difference in him ultimately earning a starting spot or not down the road. He fits better at second base than at shortstop, but his ability to stick as an infielder does give him a little bit of extra time to find his power. A move up to the hitter-friendly California League in 2020 could help in that regard.
- CJ Abrams (2020 Age: 19): Abrams was one of the top high schoolers in the 2019 draft, and the Padres picked him up out of the Atlanta area with the sixth overall pick before turning him loose in the complex level Arizona League, where he slashed .401/.442/.662 with three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games. Abrams also earned a late promotion to Class A Fort Wayne, where picked up a single, a double, and a stolen base between two games. He shows an exciting combination of speed, athleticism, and feel for the barrel, which enabled him to hit his way up to full season ball just a couple months out of high school. There's also some power potential in his 6'2" frame, as he has room to fill out as well as the great hit tool that can help him maximize whatever he does have. It's an exciting, true leadoff potential, as Abrams could hit 10-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases. Defensively, he may be able to stick at shortstop, but he could be a strong defender at second.
- Keep an eye on: Ivan Castillo, Esteury Ruiz, Allen Cordoba, Jordy Barley, Yeison Santana, Reginald Preciado

Outfield
- Taylor Trammell (2020 Age: 22): Trammell was a Reds competitive balance pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, then he got shipped to San Diego in the three team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .234/.340/.349 with ten home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 122/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games in AA, which was a bit of a step back but also not overly worrisome for a 21 year old at that level. Trammell is an exceptionally talented player who can impact the game in a variety of ways, including with a patient approach, some raw power, plenty of speed, and good range in the outfield. Even now, a few years out of high school, he remains a bit raw, but his overall abilities and work ethic have helped him get up into the upper minors. The Padres are hoping to squeeze out that last little bit of refinement in the bat to help him make more consistent hard contact, after which he could realize his ceiling of 15-20 home runs a year, solid on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases.
- Edward Olivares (2020 Age: 24): Olivares broke out with a big year in the Blue Jays system in 2017, and the Padres picked him up for Yangervis Solarte after the season. He hit well in 2018 and broke out with his best year yet in 2019, slashing .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 98/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Amarillo. He's really begun tapping his power in games, and he adds a lot of speed that has enabled him to pick up 76 stolen bases over the last three seasons and play good defense in center field. It might be a bit more of a utility projection than Trammell, who was his teammate at Amarillo, just because he has less projection in his bat as he's set to turn 24 in spring training. In all, it's probably 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases.
- Tirso Ornelas (2020 Age: 20): Ornelas is a hometown guy for the Padres, as he grew up just across the border in Tijuana, but while the organization has been patiently waiting for him to break out, it just hasn't happened yet. While the numbers weren't quite there from a pure production standpoint, he showed excellent plate discipline while playing against much older competition in 2017 and 2018, which had the team excited to see what 2019 could bring. Unfortunately, he hit just .217/.303/.279 with one home run and a 113/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between High A Lake Elsinore and a brief demotion to the complex level Arizona League to get back on track, which didn't really work. He's an extremely advanced hitter that understands the strike zone and advanced pitching well beyond his years, but despite a strong build at 6'3", he hasn't hit for much impact yet. He's only set to turn 20 in spring training, giving him plenty of time to figure things out, but the Padres would like to see at least some impact start to come out of his talented bat. Defensively, he has the makings of being a solid right fielder, though he's nothing special out there. It will be the bat that will have to wake up.
- Hudson Head (2020 Age: 19): The Padres made a huge gamble on Head, a solid high school prospect out of San Antonio, by giving him a third round record $3 million to keep from attending Oklahoma. He fell well outside of MLB.com's, Baseball America's, and my own top 100 due to his lack of a track record, but the Padres must have seen something they liked because this is a massive amount of money to take out of a draft pool. In his pro debut, Head slashed .283/.383/.417 with a home run and a 29/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games in the complex level Arizona League, which is definitely a solid start for the 18 year old. He has tapped some significant raw power in high school, though it's unproven against higher level pitching, and his speed and athleticism enable him to play a strong center field. If all goes right, the Padres are hoping to get a fairly similar player to Taylor Trammell, and that pro debut was a step in the right direction, but there is a lot of investment riding on that happening.
- Joshua Mears (2020 Age: 19): Mears went in the second round out of a Seattle-area high school in 2019, though he signed for a third of the money that Hudson signed for a round later. Though he was supposed to be raw coming in, he slashed .253/.354/.440 with seven home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games in the Arizona League, getting to his power frequently while drawing his fair share of walks. Mears is a 6'3" slugger with some of the best raw power in a system more geared towards speed and on-base percentage, though as an 18 year old kid without a lot of experience against advanced pitching, his ability to make contact and tap his power in games remains raw. That's why, despite a relatively high strikeout rate, it was nice to see him hit those seven home runs and tap it a little bit in pro ball. The Padres will get to work refining that hit tool with him in spring training, with the hope that he'll eventually hit 25-30 home runs or more annually. Despite his size, he's an adequate defender who could play left or right field.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Gettys, Jeisson Rosario, Grant Little, Michael Curry, Ismael Mena

Starting Pitching
- MacKenzie Gore (2020 Age: 21): Gore was the third overall pick coming out of high school in rural southeastern North Carolina in 2017, and after a solid if unspectacular 2018, he broke out in a huge way in 2019 to establish himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Between High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, he posted a 1.69 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 135/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings, and if you take out one rough start on July 19th, the ERA and WHIP drop to 1.11 and 0.76, respectively. In essence, aside from one start, the 20 year old was untouchable. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondaries, all of which can be plus pitches. His curveball has really good shape and his slider is a second distinct breaking ball that dives to his glove side, while his changeup has improved as well to the point where it can be an out pitch. He also throws strikes with all of his pitches, and his competitiveness on the mound makes everything play up. That's an ace projection if he can stay healthy, because he really checks all of the boxes you're looking for in a young pitcher – he's even left handed. I doubt Gore will open 2020 in the big league rotation, but he could be up at some point during the year and once he's up, he should stick.
- Adrian Morejon (2020 Age: 21): Morejon was a well regarded prospect coming out of Cuba, signing for $11 million in 2016, and he's worked his way up as one of the better pitching prospects in the system. In 2019, he posted a 4.25 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 44/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings at AA Amarillo, then got knocked around with a 10.13 ERA and a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings before shoulder problems ended his season in August. There's no question about his stuff, as his fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball has some wicked two plane break. He also adds a pair of changeups with nice diving and fading action, and his command is good enough to make it all work. The problem here has been durability, as he's not the biggest guy at six feet tall and he has yet to throw more than 65.1 innings in a season. He has both the stuff and command to be a #2 or #3 starter at the major league level, but if he can't stay healthy, he might be forced to the bullpen. Set to turn just 21 years old at the start of spring training, Morejon already has all of the pieces in place except for that pesky durability, but of course none of it matters if he can't stay healthy. At the least, he should be an impact lefty reliever.
- Michel Baez (2020 Age: 24): Baez, another Cuban who signed for a big bonus in 2016 ($3 million), has followed Morejon's development path but he's a very different pitcher. Three years older and eight inches taller, he stands 6'8" and also sits in the mid 90's with his fastball. His go to breaking ball is a slider, though he also has a curve and a changeup, though all together the arsenal is a bit inconsistent. That spreads to his command, which comes and goes, and ultimately it's hard to say whether he'll be able to stick in the rotation. In 2019, Baez posted a 2.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings at AA Amarillo, then went up to the majors and put up a 3.03 ERA and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings in relief. Even though Baez has proven more durable to this point, I'd project Morejon as the better prospect because he's a much more complete pitcher at a younger age, but Baez does retain a high ceiling. There's a good chance he ends up a power reliever, where his 6'8" height would also be a big boon.
- Ronald Bolanos (2020 Age: 23): Yet another Cuban signed in 2016, Bolanos went for $2 million but has flown a bit more under the radar in the shadows of Morejon and Baez. That changed in 2019, when he broke out and posted a 3.66 ERA, a a 1.24 WHIP, and a 142/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, and he also put up a 5.95 ERA and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondary pitches, and while none of them stand out as true out pitches, he mixes them effectively and gets some deception in his delivery to help them play up. He also throws his share of strikes, and in all he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. However, he's proven more durable than Morejon and more consistent than Baez, so he might actually have the highest floor as a starter of the trio.
- Luis Patino (2020 Age: 20): Patino, in my opinion, is easily the second best pitching prospect in this system behind MacKenzie Gore. Signed for $120,000 out of Colombia in that same 2016 class that featured the trio of Cubans above him here, he's younger than all of them and has easily the most complete profile. In 2019, he posted a 2.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 123/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, despite not turning 20 until after the season. Patino has a lightning quick right arm, but the ball still seems to explode even quicker out of his hand and it sits in the low to mid 90's. He also adds a distinct slider and curveball as well as a changeup, and he commands all of it pretty well for someone his age. Patino needs to get more consistent with his all around game, but at just 20 years old, he's far more advanced than most arms his age and it all boils down to this; that's a special right arm, one with as much talent as you'll see anywhere. He doesn't throw as hard, but his athleticism and quick arm kind of remind me of Yordano Ventura.
- Pedro Avila (2020 Age: 23): Avila was originally a Nationals prospect who came over for Derek Norris in 2016, though 2019 was a bit of a lost season as he posted a 5.25 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 31/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between AA Amarillo and some complex level rehab. However, he did make his MLB debut in April, where he threw 5.1 strong innings against the Diamondbacks, but he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. When healthy, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball but gets really nice, late bite on his curveball and gets good fade on his changeup, and the throws just enough strikes with all three pitches in order to make them play up. Healthy now, he just needs to prove he can remain in and around the zone consistently in the bigs, though his lighter velocity might push him to the bullpen where he could add a tick or two. He's just about ready now, even post-injury, but this is a stacked system and there are quite a few arms ahead of him for rotation spots.
- Reggie Lawson (2020 Age: 22-23): Lawson went in the second competitive balance round out of high school in 2016, and he's a semi-local kid from Victorville, up in the desert north of San Bernardino. He's worked his way up one level at a time, though he missed most of 2019 with elbow problems and finished with a 5.20 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings at AA Amarillo. No worries, because Lawson did return for the Arizona Fall League and looked really good in eleven innings. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big dropping curveball as well as a changeup, and with workable command, he definitely has the ability to start. The curve can look plus and the changeup can look above average at times, though both lack consistency and he does run the risk of becoming a fastball/curveball reliever, especially in this deep system. Despite this, you have to feel like Lawson is one or two adjustments away from breaking through, even after a few pro seasons, so I wouldn't give up on him as a starter just yet. He just has to get more consistent, which of course is easier said than done.
- Ryan Weathers (2020 Age: 20): Weathers garnered a lot of attention as one of the most advanced high school arms in the class in 2018, and the Padres grabbed him with the seventh overall pick out of a rural Middle Tennessee high school. In his first full season, he posted a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 90/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a very strong performance for a kid straight out of high school. Weathers sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a sharp curve and a very advanced changeup, all of which he commands very well. That all gives him less of the boom/bust profile that you see in most high school arms, as he's more like a college arm in that you know what you're getting and you just have to teach him to execute in pro ball. Weathers doesn't come with a ton of ceiling, but he has a very good shot at becoming an innings-eating #3 starter.
- Joey Cantillo (2020 Age: 20): Cantillo, a 16th round pick out of high school in Hawaii in 2017 who was born one day after Weathers in December 1999, was a little known teenage prospect coming into the season who didn't throw particularly hard or have great offspeed stuff. That changed in 2019, though, as he was one of the minors' biggest surprises by posting a 2.26 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and High A Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" lefty only sits around 90 with his fastball, sometimes bumping higher, and adds a full set of secondaries that he mixed well enough to miss a ton of Midwest League bats in 2019. He does a good job of throwing strikes and gets most of his outs with his changeup, and everything plays up because he can effectively mix his four pitches. Cantillo still has a lot of work to do, namely adding velocity and sharpening one or both of his breaking balls, but you can't argue with the numbers and Class A hitters were simply dumbfounded by the then-19 year old's stuff.
- Anderson Espinoza (2020 Age: 22): It's been three and a half years since Espinoza last threw a pitch on a professional mound, but that only speaks to how talented he is to still have his name on this list. Forearm problems kept him off the mound for most of 2017, then surgery late in the year wiped out the rest of the season as well as his 2018 season. A second Tommy John surgery knocked him out for the 2019 season as well, so fingers crossed that 2020 is the year. Back when he was pitching, Espinoza showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a curve and a changeup, and all three could be plus pitches. His command was also really good for an 18 year old, which will hopefully help him as he gets back on the found for the first time in ages. Espinoza has everything to prove and we don't know what kind of pitcher he will be when he gets back, whether he'll stick in the rotation or not, etc., but the good news is he was so young when he got hurt that he only turns 22 in spring training, making him the same age as most 2019 college draftees.
- Keep an eye on: Jacob Nix, Jerry Keel, Lake Bachar, Aaron Leasher, Caleb Boushley, Osvaldo Hernandez

Relief Pitching
- Steven Wilson (2020 Age: 25): Wilson was an eighth round pick out of Santa Clara in 2018, but as a redshirt senior who was old for his class, he had already turned 24 by the end of his pro debut and carried a 7.88 ERA at that. However, things changed in a big way in 2019, when he posted a 2.67 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 86/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AAA El Paso, two very hitter-friendly environments. A starter back at Santa Clara, he's seen a velocity bump in relief and now sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a slider and a cutter on top of it. The slider has great diagonal movement while the cutter can run to the glove side, and with his armside running fastball, he's a power arm that can make his pitches move essentially in any direction he wants them to. His command is decent and it hasn't hurt him in the minors, though in the majors he'll probably want to take a little step forward there if he wants to be more than a middle reliever.
- Henry Henry (2020 Age: 21): Of course, how can we not talk about the kid named Henry Henry here. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Henry transitioned to a full time reliever this year and put up a 3.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an 80/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a nice step forward from what he was doing in the rotation. He possesses easy velocity in the low to mid 90's, and he adds a nice curveball with two plane break. For now, what stands out is Henry's ability to throw strikes, his biggest improvement from 2018 to 2019, as well as the ease with which he throws. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see another velocity bump, as he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old and now has a full year in the bullpen under his belt. Probably more of a middle relief profile, but it's fun to track a kid with a name like Henry Henry.
- Mason Thompson (2020 Age: 22): Thompson was an over slot third round pick out of an Austin-area high school in 2016, though he's struggled to stay healthy and has just 159.1 pro innings under his belt in four seasons. In 2019, he posted a 7.24 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings between High A Lake Elsinore and complex level rehab work, though elbow problems bothered him mid season. Given that his injury history goes back to high school Tommy John surgery, it's probably pretty clear that he won't hold up in a starting role and he'll probably get run out as a reliever eventually. Thompson is extremely tall, standing 6'7", and that helps him get good angle on his pitches and run his fastball into the mid 90's. However, all of his secondary pitches lack consistency and his command collapsed as he battled injuries this year. He has shown strike throwing aptitude in the past and his slider has some nice, late break, so there is potential for him to take a big step forward in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: David Bednar, Elliot Ashbeck, Mason Fox, Dylan Coleman, Ignacio Feliz

2018 Draft Review: San Diego Padres

First 5 rounds: Ryan Weathers (1-7), Xavier Edwards (CBA-38), Grant Little (CBB-74), Owen Miller (3-84), Dylan Coleman (4-111), Dwanya Williams-Sutton (5-141)
Also notable: Jawuan Harris (7-201), Luke Becker (9-261), Sean Guilbe (12-351)

Since they already have one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Padres went for upside here to see if they can add a few more names to their list of high level prospects. They leaned a little bit more on hitters but not much, and while I think they made some reaches, they added a lot of talent. Overall, from a team with a top ten pick as well as two competitive balance picks, I think the haul is a little light, but as an upside-oriented draft, only a couple players have to be successful for it to be a successful draft.

1-7: LHP Ryan Weathers (my rank: 18)
Weathers is a great pitcher, no doubt, and definitely a first round talent, so it's hard to be negative here but there were definitely high school pitchers, even a high school lefty (Matthew Liberatore) available that I liked better. Weathers is a 6'1" lefty out of Loretto High School in rural Tennessee, about 90 miles southwest of Nashville. The son of 19 year MLB veteran David Weathers, Ryan is arguably the safest bet among all high school pitchers. Though he lacks physical projection, he's very good right now, throwing a low 90's fastball, a curveball with inconsistent break but good power, and a solid changeup, all of which he commands well. Really, aside from acclimating to higher levels and better hitters, all that he has to do to end up a major league starter is maintain his command and get more consistent with his curveball, which is saying a lot for a high schooler. His lack of a "to-do" list might also give him time to tinker with adding a slider and improving his changeup further. I like him, but those that are high on him really, really like him, and he has a good chance to move through the minors quickly by high school standards and be a mid-rotation starter for a long time, though his chances of becoming an ace are lower. He signed for just over $5.2 million, right at slot.

CBA-38: SS Xavier Edwards (my rank: 26)
Edwards is a high school shortstop from South Florida, one with speed and the ability to switch hit. Despite being a switch hitter, he shows great feel for the barrel and should post high batting averages and on-base percentages at the major league level. The swing is cleaner from the right side and will require some refinements on the left, but he is wiry and strong enough to hit for some power, though 20 homer seasons won't be in the books. With that exceptional speed, he will be able to remain a shortstop, though likely not a Gold Glove caliber one. At best, he could be a leadoff man in San Diego. He signed for $2.6 million, which is $721,700 above slot, and he is slashing .423/.515/.423 with no extra base hits but six stolen bases and a 4/6 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games in the rookie level Arizona League.

CBB-74: OF Grant Little (unranked)
Little was the first of eleven players drafted off an exceptional Texas Tech team this year, as he was draft eligible as a sophomore and slashed .370/.462/.642 with 12 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 38/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 65 games. He's an average sized hitter (6'1", 185 lbs), but he generates power through a quick, efficient swing and by gaining ground with his load, something I always like to see. Defensively, his position is kind of up in the air, as he could definitely play left field but that would put a lot of pressure on his bat. He may be able to handle center, and second base is also an option. No matter where he plays, his bat will have to carry him, but he may have just enough bat to profile as a 20 homer, .350 on-base percentage guy and start. He signed for $800,000, which is $12,200 below slot, and he's slashing .293/.340/.317 with three stolen bases and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio through ten games in the short season Northwest League.

3-84: SS Owen Miller (unranked)
Miller started for three years at Illinois State, playing well as a freshman (.328/.368/.498) and as a sophomore (.325/.351/.498) before breaking out as a junior, slashing .384/.433/.537 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 23/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 52 games. He generates his moderate power from a fairly long swing which will have to be shortened in pro ball, though a low 9.1% strikeout rate this year will help him and it may not need to be shortened too much as long as he keeps catching up to better and better pitching. He doesn't walk much, which isn't really a problem now while he's hitting for power but might become one if he takes more of a contact-oriented approach, and with his speed he could steal a few bases. Defensively, he has a chance to stick at shortstop but may ultimately be a second baseman. He signed for $500,000, which is $194,500 below slot, and he is slashing .336/.373/.448 with two home runs and a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 29 games in the Northwest League.

4-111: RHP Dylan Coleman (my rank: 78)
Coleman is a college arm with great stuff but who doesn't always get the results you would think he'd get. He had his best year for Missouri State this year, going 10-2 with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 129/59 strikeout to walk ratio in 102.2 innings, striking out opponents in bunches but also allowing too many walks. He has an extremely quick arm and throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's with a great slider and a good curveball, but he struggles to repeat his delivery and has trouble locating his pitches consistently. He'll require a lot of work for a college arm, but the 6'6" righty has a high ceiling and could be a #2 starter. He signed for $500,000, which is $2,800 below slot and started off in the Northwest League, throwing six innings and allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts before a promotion to Class A Fort Wayne. There, he has tossed 4.2 shutout innings on two hits, four walks, and four strikeouts.

5-141: OF Dwanya Williams-Sutton (unranked)
Williams-Sutton has the distinction of being the first Dwanya to ever play professional baseball, and he'll do so after a successful breakout season at East Carolina. As a junior this past year, he slashed .331/.477/.556 with seven home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games, though he did miss some time with a wrist injury. He's a very athletic, very strong outfielder who may be able to profile in center field but can fall back on right field. He does have his share of swing and misses (19% strikeout rate) but he also walks a fair amount (14.4%) and offers plenty of upside if the Padres can help him channel his strength and athleticism into more power. He did struggle on the Cape (.148/.324/.185, 11/4 K/BB), and his bat may be a little bit behind that of other college hitters, but his ceiling is higher. To boot, he's young for his grade, having just turned 21 a few days ago. He signed for $350,000, which is $25,600 below slot, and he's slashing .262/.295/.429 with a home run and a 12/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in the Northwest League.

Others: 7th rounder Jawuan Harris, even at just 5'9", is an athlete through and through, as he plays on the Rutgers baseball team and football team, going so far as to play both ways on the gridiron as a safety and a wide receiver. As you can guess, he's pretty raw, but he has excellent speed that should help him stay in center field. He has never quite gotten it going at the plate, finishing his junior year slashing .246/.375/.387 with a pair of home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 47/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He swings and misses a lot (26.7% strikeout rate this year), as you would expect, but he also draws a surprising number of walks (15.9%), and the Padres will bank on their being untapped potential obscured by his football focus. 9th rounder Luke Becker has been a steady contributor at Kentucky, where he finished his junior season slashing .286/.410/.466 with seven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 45/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He's a second baseman that uses an advanced approach at the plate (14.3% walk rate) to get on base and drive balls into the gaps, though he swings and misses a bit much for a player of that profile (17.4% strikeout rate). If he can hone his plate discipline just a bit further, which I think he can, he could stick as a utility infielder and get some shots at starting at second base. 12th rounder Sean Guilbe is a borderline top five rounds talent, but he slid to the 12th due to signability and cost the Padres $175,000 against their bonus pool for a total of a $300,000 bonus. He's a powerful third baseman out of high school in Reading, Pennsylvania, one who can drive the ball out of any park but who may struggle with contact at the next level.