MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

First five rounds: Keoni Cavaco (1-13), Matt Wallner (CBA-39), Matt Canterino (2-54), Spencer Steer (3-90), Seth Gray (4-119), Will Holland (5-149)
Also notable: Anthony Prato (7-209), Casey Legumina (8-239), Tanner Brubaker (11-329)

This was a position player-heavy draft early on for the Twins, as five of their first six picks and six of their first eight swing the bat. They transitioned to pitchers later on, taking 15 pitchers with their next 16 picks from the eighth through 23rd rounds. Overall, I think the Twins got a really nice talent pool here, grabbing some upside with guys like Keoni Cavaco, Will Holland, and Casey Legumina while also getting a couple of safer-bet impact guys like Matt Wallner and Matt Canterino. Cavaco has some holes in his game but he has the chance to turn into a franchise player if things go well, and Wallner and Canterino should be solid contributors in the not-too-distant future in Minneapolis.

1-13: SS Keoni Cavaco (Eastlake HS [CA], my rank: 26)
Keoni Cavaco, armed with arguably the coolest name in the upper portion of the 2019 draft (with apologies to Nasim Nunez, Kyren Paris, and Drey Jameson), had serious helium coming into the draft. Nobody had heard of the San Diego-area high schooler last summer, and it took until the season started in the spring for him to get his name even in the conversation for the first round. However, he played well and teams reportedly came away very impressed by his private workouts, and as the draft approached, he had pushed himself firmly into the middle of the first round. The Twins pounced on Cavaco with the 13th overall pick, and he comes with some of the best upside in the class. Cavaco stands 6'2" and hits the ball with authority, using his big right handed swing and quick hands to produce well above average power that will only improve with time. His hit tool leaves some to be desired, and part of that stems from his big swing, but he is strong enough that the Twins can tone him down a bit and still get 20-30 home runs out of him annually, if not more. Defensively, Cavaco shows a cannon arm, but as he grows, third base will probably be his end destination, where his arm will make him above average. He signed away from San Diego State for $4.05 million, which was $150,000 below slot, and he is slashing .222/.222/.333 with four strikeouts to no walks over his first five games in the complex-level Gulf Coast League.

CBA-39: OF Matt Wallner (Southern Mississippi, my rank: 56)
Twins fans, don't be fooled by the fact that Matt Wallner attended Southern Miss; he's a born and raised Minnesotan from Forest Lake, about 25 miles north of St. Paul. Wallner was a two-way player for the Golden Eagles and was heavily scouted as a pitcher as well, but he hurt his arm in 2019 and made it clear that he preferred to hit, anyways. He has put up some mind boggling numbers in Hattiesburg, this year slashing .323/.446/.681 with 23 home runs and a 50/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, giving him a total of 58 home runs for his career, 190 RBI, and a .337/.460/.652 slash line over 189 games in all. He's a big, 6'5", left handed power hitter who can absolutely crank a baseball if he gets into one, though there are questions about his hit tool despite the gaudy numbers. Wallner slashed a decent but uninspiring .250/.343/.417 with four home runs and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the elite Cape Cod League this past summer, and his long swing led to a 17.5% strikeout rate against the average pitching he faced as part of the Conference-USA this year. That rate isn't crazy high and it's supplemented by his 16.8% walk rate, but it's enough to give some pause given that there is some length to his swing and that he doesn't have the world's quickest bat. On the bright side, he was heating up as the season went on. Defensively, he's not fast at all but he has a very strong arm, so he profiles as a right fielder. Wallner signed for $1.8 million, which was $110,000 below slot, and he's slashing .300/.397/.400 with one home run and a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 12 games at rookie level Elizabethton.

2-54: RHP Matt Canterino (Rice, my rank: 37)
For the second straight pick, the Twins grabbed a Matt out of the C-USA, this time taking Rice ace Matt Canterino in the second round. The Dallas/Fort Worth-area native had a big year for the Owls, posting a 2.81 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 121/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.1 innings. Canterino is an interesting study, as he's a 6'2" right hander who uses his long arms and a delivery with lots of moving parts to generate low 90's fastballs and two very good breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, with his changeup lagging behind. Despite the fairly wild delivery, he actually has pretty good command, and a pitcher who can land three above average pitches in the zone for strikes has a good prognosis for future success. He's not a lock to stay in the rotation, though, because although he has remained durable at Rice and has thrown 289.1 innings over three seasons (with 348 strikeouts), it remains to be seen how his delivery will work starting every fifth day. For now, he projects as a mid-rotation starter, and if he can prove his durability at the next level, it's hard to see him as anything less than a #5 starter. Canterino signed for $1.1 million, which was $240,000 below slot.

3-90: SS Spencer Steer (Oregon, unranked)
Spencer Steer is a high-floor, utility infielder type with a chance for more. The Southern California native slashed .349/.456/.502 with six home runs and a 33/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for Oregon, showing a broad skill set that should translate up to the next level. He also had a great summer on the Cape, where he out-hit Wallner by slashing .304/.351/.481 with five home runs and a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. Steer has good feel to hit as well as an advanced approach, which has enabled him to start all three years for the Ducks, and it's why he's having no trouble so far in his transition to the low minors. Standing 5'11" and without much power, Steer's ceiling is limited, but he has a chance to hit his way up and post strong on-base percentages in the major leagues. Defensively, he spent his time with Oregon playing second and third base, but he was extremely good there and may be able to handle shortstop in pro ball, which would boost his value. He signed for $575,000, which was $82,600 below slot, and he's off to a scorching start at Elizabethton where he is again out-hitting Wallner by slashing .333/.444/.556 with a pair of home runs and a great 3/8 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 11 games.

4-119: 3B Seth Gray (Wright State, unranked)
After two years of solid but unspectacular numbers at Wright State in Dayton, Ohio, Gray held his own but failed to make a big impression in the Cape Cod League last summer, where he slashed .246/.340/.333 with one home run and a 25/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games. Then he got back to campus and put up a huge junior season, slashing .351/.483/.630 with 11 home runs and a 44/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against mediocre competition in the Horizon League, pushing himself into early Day Two discussion. Gray, who grew up just outside of Lima, Ohio, has some nice loft in his left handed swing and finally began to tap into it in 2019, also cutting down his strikeouts a hair while bumping up his walk rate significantly. He's a strong guy at 6'3", and while he doesn't have the quick twitch athleticism or huge raw power of most of the other guys in this draft range, he has a good feel for the game and plays above his tools. That enables him to be very good at third base despite below average speed. His outlook at this point is that of a bench or platoon bat, but if he transitions well to pro ball, he could outplay that and be a starting third baseman with 15-20 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages. Gray signed at slot for $483,000, and he's slashing .244/.401/.341 with one home run and a 9/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 11 games with Wallner and Steer at Elizabethton.

5-149: SS Will Holland (Auburn, my rank: 73)
The Twins saved about $582,000 on their first three picks, so they used some of that money to go overslot and grab one of the bigger fallers in the 2019 college group. Will Holland entered the 2019 season as a potential first round pick after slashing .313/.406/.530 as a sophomore at Auburn and .341/.431/.432 in a brief, 13 game stint in the Cape Cod League, but instead he came out of the gate ice cold and saw his stock drop significantly. The Atlanta-area native widened his stance this year and his swing got longer, and while he started to pick back up a little later in the season, he still finished the year with just a .246/.376/.401 line, nine home runs, and a 62/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games while playing in the SEC. He's very athletic, and when you watch him play, he looks like a big leaguer even at 5'10" because of his quick hands and smooth actions on both sides of the ball. However, he's also fairly raw around most of his game and that was exposed this year, as his plate discipline is so-so and he struck out in 21.8% of his at bats this year. Holland is fast and stole 15 bases this season, and I think he still has the upside as a starting shortstop with a little luck. He's a solid defender and will stick at shortstop, taking some pressure off his bat, though ultimately he's going to have to get back to his sophomore form if he wants to work his way up and play every day in the big leagues. At best, Holland profiles as a guy who could hit 15-20 home runs with solid on-base percentages in the majors, but he has some work to do to get there. He took the same signing bonus as Steer at $575,000, which was $214,200 above slot in this case, and he's slashing .143/.143/.357 with one home run and a 9/0 strikeout to walk ratio over his first three games at Elizabethton.

7-209: SS Anthony Prato (Connecticut, unranked)
Anthony Prato is a contact hitter up at UConn, and he brings a fairly straightforward scouting report to the table. The Brooklyn native slashed .324/.441/.430 with three home runs and a 24/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games for the Huskies this season, showing excellent bat to ball skills, strong plate discipline, and little in the way of power. He's a stocky 5'10" and is very content in using his quick swing to just poke line drives around the field, and he draws plenty of walks to give him a high on-base percentage. He won't stick at shortstop and profiles better at second base, and he has a chance to hit his way up as a utility infielder who can get on base consistently. Prato signed for $274,800, which was $59,900 above slot and actually the exact slot value for the Twins' sixth round pick, and he's slashing a solid .324/.368/.471 with a home run and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over his first nine games at Elizabethton.

8-239: RHP Casey Legumina (Gonzaga, unranked)
Casey Legumina was very good out of the Gonzaga bullpen as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2018, when he posted a 2.77 ERA and a 52/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings, but he elected to return to school, where he would transition to the rotation. He made a brief but solid run through the Cape Cod League (9 IP, 1 R [0 ER], 9 K, 1 BB) and got off to a strong start in the Zags' rotation this year, posting a 1.50 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 29/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings. However, he went down with a forearm injury and didn't pitch the rest of the season, so it's a bit hard to project him. The Phoenix-area native sits in the low 90's and adds a good breaking ball and a changeup, and his delivery and command are both solid. However, he's unproven as a starter and the injury doesn't help things, so it remains to be seen whether he tries to fight his way up as a potential #4 starter or if he gets moved to the bullpen, where he could be a solid seventh or eighth inning guy. Legumina turned 22 in June, making him old for a junior. He signed for $250,000, which was $78,000 above slot.

11-329: RHP Tanner Brubaker (UC Irvine, unranked)
Brubaker transferred from California Baptist University to Saddleback JC for his sophomore season, pitched great, and transferred to UC Irvine for his junior year. The Southern California native had a good year for the Anteaters, posting a 2.99 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 50/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 innings, albeit with a pitcher-friendly home park. Brubaker stands 6'5" with a strong build, and he can sit in the low 90's with his fastball and add a curveball and a changeup. None of his pitches really generate swings and misses, but he has good command for somebody so big and and the Twins hope they can smooth out his mechanics a bit to sharpen his stuff, in which case he could be a back-end starter. On the plus side, he only turned 21 in June, making him relatively young for a junior and a full year younger than Legumina. He signed for $200,000, which counts for $75,000 against the Twins' bonus pool.

2019 Draft Preview: Shortstops

Shortstop is always one of the deepest positions at first glance, but many of these guys end up pushed off the position over to second or third base, and I tried to include those guys over with those positions. Still, the ability to play and stay at shortstop is a huge boon to a player's draft stock, as shortstops who can hit are hard to come by and when they are found, they become stars (see Francisco Lindor, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter). This year's crop is especially deep, especially at the college level (I pushed college shortstops Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake, and Brady McConnell to the second base list), though some high school bats are showing some real helium as of late.

Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.

Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.

Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.

Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin