2023 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies went pitching heavy this year, grabbing arms with six of their first eight picks and 14/21 overall. They started it off with Chase Dollander, who entered the season the consensus top pitching prospect in the country, and continued on through a group with widely varying profiles. Cole Carrigg is perhaps the most interesting as a freak athlete/super utility man with an extreme profile, and as you get into the middle rounds the arm strength starts to pick up with the pitchers with a few guys pushing for triple digits.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-9: RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $5.72 million. Signing bonus: $5.72 million.
My rank: #14. MLB Pipeline: #9. Baseball America: #6. Prospects Live: #14.
If you told the Rockies they would have a chance to draft Chase Dollander this year before the season began, they wouldn't have believed you. Originally a Georgia Southern Eagle, he transferred to Tennessee for his sophomore season and put together a magnificent 2022 with a 2.39 ERA and a 108/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings. At that point, he established himself as the consensus best pitcher in the draft, ahead of even Paul Skenes on virtually all boards. However, his 2023 was frustrating on many levels, and he finished with a 4.75 ERA and a 120/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings, though it's important to note that he played in a hitter-friendly home park and offense was up across college baseball. Still, Chase Dollander is such a good pitcher that even after a tough season, he remains an elite prospect. The fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching 99 with flat plane and carry. The life on the pitch was a bit more explosive in 2022, though it's still clean fuego as is. The fastball has always been the main attraction, but he also throws two distinct breaking balls led by a plus sweeping slider and a more traditional vertical curveball. The Augusta-area native rounds out his arsenal with an above average changeup, giving him four potentially above average or better pitches. In 2022, he showed plus command to all four quadrants of the zone, though that slipped to "merely" above average in 2023 as he got hit over the plate a little more. Dollander is a great athlete with a projectable 6'2" frame, getting deep down the mound, repeating his delivery extremely well, and maintaining his stuff deep into starts. So let's take a step back. Even on his worst days, it's a great profile: a flat mid 90's fastball, three average or better secondaries, and at least average command from an athletic frame. At his best, we're talking about an explosive riding fastball touching the upper 90's, a pair of wicked breaking balls, and an above average changeup, all of which he can command with precision. Dollander is still a potential ace and has a nice floor as a #3/#4 starter.

2-46: LHP Sean Sullivan, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $1.87 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($168,400 below slot value).
My rank: #78. MLB Pipeline: #123. Baseball America: #77. Prospects Live: #64.
Sean Sullivan has one of the most unique profiles in this year's draft class, though ironically he's a very similar pick to last year's Rockies third rounder Carson Palmquist. Originally a Northwestern Wildcat, he transferred to Wake Forest this year and put together a fantastic season, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 90/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, like Chase Dollander playing in a hitter-friendly home park. Sullivan's fastball only sits around 90 and tops out around 94, which in today's day and age is pretty unimpressive, but it plays way, way above its velocity because it has an elite combination of flat plane and riding action. Hitters whiffed at the pitch like he was throwing upper 90's, looking hopeless when he located it up in the zone. He adds a sweepy slider that looks average, playing well off his fastball when he locates it, and his changeup could be an above average pitch with nice fading action. The story, though, is the fastball, and the Rockies will try to add a tick or two of velocity to ensure it plays against pro hitters. From there, helping his offspeed stuff take a step forward could make him a mid rotation starter. The 6'4" lefty is still projectable, and his athleticism is apparent in his sidearm delivery with great separation. It's not unlikely that he'll add that velocity, and his athleticism also enables him to pound the strike zone with above average command, rarely throwing an uncompetitive pitch. He's only thrown three appearances, but he has looked elite with four no-hit innings, allowing just one walk against ten strikeouts.

CBB-65: C Cole Carrigg, San Diego State {video}
Slot value: $1.18 million. Signing bonus: $1.3 million ($115,900 above slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #47. Baseball America: #89. Prospects Live: #122.
If Sean Sullivan brings a unique pitching profile, Cole Carrigg brings an equally unique position player profile. He was one guy that many data-oriented prospect lists soured on this spring, my own included, and in hindsight I regret that a bit and wish I didn't drop him from my top one hundred. Carrigg hit .388 as a sophomore, pushing his name into the fringes of the first round conversation, but took a slight step back in 2023 and slashed .313/.367/.473 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 22/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. At the plate, he shows plus bat to ball skills with the ability to get to balls all over and outside of the zone, utilizing a line drive approach where he shoots the ball into the gaps and lets his wheels do the rest. He's extremely aggressive at the plate, chasing a third of pitches out of the zone for the highest chase rate on my entire draft board, so the overall hit tool may even out to above average rather than plus, and either way he rarely ever walks with just a 5.2% free pass rate in 2023. In the power deparment, Carrigg isn't offering much. The exit velocities are squarely below average and he doesn't look to lift the ball, with just seven career home runs in 132 games despite playing in a hitter-friendly Mountain West Conference and in a 2023 season that saw increased offense around college baseball. So in all, we're looking at an aggressive bat to ball-oriented bat that can hit for a high average, with power and walks likely not to be a big part of his game. It's a truly old school offensive profile. Meanwhile, the defense might be even more interesting. The Central Valley native is one of the best athletes in the entire class, bar none, and that athleticism shines in a big way through his versatility. Last year on the Cape alone, he appeared on the mound, behind the plate, at second base, shortstop, and third base, and in both center and right fields. It wasn't just a gimmick, either – Carrigg can really handle all those positions. He's already appeared at catcher, shortstop, and center field in the Rockies organization and could be an Alfredo Amezaga, Brandon Inge-like super utility man, except Amezaga couldn't catch and Inge wasn't cut out for shortstop. Carrigg is a plus runner so his range plays everywhere, while his plus-plus arm was evident at the MLB Draft Combine where he hit triple digits on throws from the outfield. If Carrigg can find a way to add some power and cut down on his chases, he has a shot to be a star. Upon looking back into this profile, I do regret getting so caught up in his chase rates and low exit velocities and letting him fall to #104 on my board. He's off to a red hot start, slashing .359/.415/.626 with five home runs, thirteen stolen bases, and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Fresno. Interestingly enough in those 33 games, he has already far surpassed his home run (2), strikeout (22), and walk (9) totals that he put up in 41 games at San Diego State.

3-77: RHP Jack Mahoney, South Carolina {video}
Slot value: $930,600. Signing bonus: $925,000 ($5,600 below slot value).
My rank: #154. MLB Pipeline: #120. Baseball America: #176. Prospects Live: #85.
Jack Mahoney gives the Rockies a pretty straightforward back-end starting pitching prospect. After missing 2022 with Tommy John surgery, he returned strong in 2023 with a 4.16 ERA and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings, proving to be one of the more consistent starting pitchers in the SEC outside of the big names. He has plenty of arm strength, with a low to mid 90's fastball that touches 97 with running action. His downer slider looks like an above average pitch with late, bat missing bite, while his changeup gives him a third usable pitch. Mahoney has short arm action and hides the ball well, repeating his simple delivery well for above average command to make everything play up. With a sturdy 6'3" frame, the Chicago-area native has all the ingredients necessary to become a #4 starter. Of note, he's on the older side for the class and turned 22 a month after the draft, but he shouldn't need too much development to get to the bigs. In two innings in the Arizona Complex League, he allowed two runs on three hits, one walk, and three strikeouts.

4-109: LHP Isaiah Coupet, Ohio State {video}
Slot value: $615,500. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($15,500 below slot value).
My rank: #123. MLB Pipeline: #189. Baseball America: #164. Prospects Live: #92.
While Jack Mahoney's profile is straightforward, Isaiah Coupet is a little more unusual. He's coming off a strong season at Ohio State where he posted a 3.55 ERA and a 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings, and also showed well in the Cape Cod League last summer. He sits around 90 with his fastball and touches 94 at peak, but the heater isn't the draw here. Instead, Coupet can spin a breaking ball with the best of them. His slider and curveball are both distinct breakers with their own movement profiles and both grade out as plus, making for a very unique look as a hitter. On the surface, it looks like a relief profile. The 6'1" lefty has a bit of a stiff delivery that relies heavily on his drive from the rubber and he doesn't have much of a changeup at this point. However, he has maintained his stuff and command deep into starts, so if the Rockies can find a way to help him add a tick or two of velocity and get that changeup moving along, he could be a back-end starter. The floor here is still very nice as a junkballing lefty reliever that could be a nightmare from a matchup perspective. He's also extremely young for a college junior, over a year younger than Mahoney and not set to turn 21 until the end of September. In 3.1 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Fresno, he has yet to allow a run and has struck out five against one walk.

5-145: 3B Kyle Karros, UCLA {video}
Slot value: $433,500. Signing bonus: $433,500.
My rank: #148. MLB Pipeline: #136. Baseball America: #103. Prospects Live: #175.
Kyle Karros has baseball in his bloodlines. His father, Eric, starred at UCLA and twelve years with the Dodgers, while his brother, Jared, also starred at UCLA and is currently in the Dodgers' minor league system. Kyle was the third Karros to star at UCLA, but he'll head across the Rocky Mountains to Colorado as a pro, at least keeping the NL West a family affair. He was a breakout pick after a big sophomore year in 2022, and after coming out of the gates hot in 2023, he began to push his name into top three round territory. However, he slumped hard in Pac-12 play and finished the season with a pedestrian .284/.372/.420 slash line, five home runs, and a 35/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. In addition to his in-conference struggles (.193/.277/.273 in 23 games), he didn't hit well on the Cape either (.157/.279/.157 in 18 games), calling into question his ability to provide impact against advanced pitching. Still, the Rockies love his upside. Karros stands 6'5" with long arms and legs, and given that he didn't turn 21 until after the draft, he's as projectable as they come for a college hitter. Like many Bruins, he employs a contact-oriented approach from the right side, looking to use the whole field and showing solid contact rates. That approach does sap his power a bit, with below average exit velocities that point to below average game power, but given his  size and frame he should be able to get to at least average with a different approach. He has become more disciplined as a hitter during his time in Westwood, but his chase rates still remain a bit elevated especially against quality stuff. Overall, it's a bit of a confounding offensive profile that the Rockies may have to get creative to put together. Defensively, Karros shows great body control at third base lending confidence that he'll stick there despite his lanky frame and below average speed, with a plus arm to round out the profile. That defensive aptitude certainly won't hurt him as he works to find his identity as a hitter. So far, he's slashing .288/.401/.339 with a 23/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Fresno, though the numbers did dip after his promotion to the latter.

6-172: RHP Cade Denton, Oral Roberts {video}
Slot value: $336,700. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($163,300 above slot value).
My rank: #149. MLB Pipeline: #184. Baseball America: #203. Prospects Live: #160.
Ranking right next to Kyle Karros on my draft board, Cade Denton is a fun one. He has been untouchable the last two seasons at Oral Roberts, combining for a 1.25 ERA and a 141/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.2 innings out of the Golden Eagles bullpen. Denton is a high octane arm with a low to mid 90's fastball that can reach 99 in short stints, coming in with flat plane from a lower slot with running and sinking action when he wants it. His short, hard slider flashes plus and gives him a wicked one-two punch, while his changeup is a distant third pitch at this point. The 6'3" righty pounds the strike zone with a simple, athletic delivery and has controlled at bats from start to finish in Tulsa, and he may actually be able to transition to starting if the Rockies go that route. In that case, he would have to prove he can continue to repeat his delivery deep into starts while also bringing that changeup along, but he has the arm strength and projectable frame to get it done. If he stays in the bullpen, which is ultimately more likely, his fastball/slider combination will be deadly with his solid command. He could move quickly in that role. So far, he has a 4.66 ERA and a 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Fresno.

7-202: RHP Seth Halvorsen, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $263,200. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($63,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #253.
Seth Halvorsen has been around a long time. Known for his arm strength as a prep in the 2018 class, he began his college career at Missouri but between Tommy John surgery, command problems, duties as a hitter, and the pandemic, he never put it together for the Tigers. After four years in Columbia, in which he only really pitched in one save for 5.1 innings as a freshman in 2019, he transferred to Tennessee and put together his best season yet with a 3.81 ERA and a 52/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings. He's another high octane arm, showing a mid 90's fastball that can hit triple digits at best with riding life. He shows a hard slider and a new and improved splitter, together making for a tough three pitch mix with everything coming in hard. The 6'2" righty has significantly improved his control in Knoxville to the point where he can get ahead in counts and help his stuff play up, though he's very much control over command. Now 23 and a half years old, he'll be a reliever long term where he can continue to attack hitters head on with his explosive stuff. So long as his command holds together and he can stay healthy, he should be a quick mover. In fact, he's already flying through the minors with a 2.92 ERA and a 12/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12.1 innings between the Arizona Complex League, High A Spokane, and AA Hartford.

19-562: LHP Kannon Handy, Colorado Mesa {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
There's not much information out there on Kannon Handy, but I wanted to highlight him as a hometown mountain kid. Handy grew up in the southwestern Salt Lake City suburb of Herriman and attended Jordan High School in nearby Sandy, then crossed the state line to pitch at Colorado Mesa University in Grand Junction. After four years and over two hundred innings there, he'll continue east on I-70 to pitch in the Rockies' organization. Handy didn't necessarily have a standout season in 2023, pitching to a 5.57 ERA and an 88/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings against Division II competition. An article I found from a couple years ago noted him as having a low 90's fastball, a curveball, and a changeup, though I don't know if that's still the case. Already 23 years old, he has a big, physical frame at 6'3" with plenty of arm strength, though his command is probably fringy. That's about all I have on him. He made two appearances in the Arizona Complex League and allowed one hit and no runs or walks across 1.2 innings, striking out two.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

Picking first overall automatically puts you in a great position, and like the Tigers last year, I think the Pirates nailed it. They went way below slot to grab Henry Davis at the very top, but he's absolutely a top-tier talent and I don't think they cheated themselves in doing so. However, that strategy did allow them to give out massive over slot deals to three of the most talented high school players in the country with their next three picks, part of which they paid for by spending a combined $20,000 in the fifth and sixth rounds. As if it wasn't enough to bring in Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler behind Davis, they went out and surprised everybody by signing Braylon Bishop to a reasonable over slot deal in the 14th round, which is already looking like the steal of the draft.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-1: C Henry Davis, Louisville. My rank: #3.
I had Jack Leiter and Marcelo Mayer ranked ahead of Henry Davis on my board, but really I saw the three of them as the first tier and the difference between Davis and #4 Brady House was greater than the difference between him and #2 Mayer. So given that the Pirates saved a boatload of money here that they spread around the draft, I think they made the right move with the first overall selection. Davis has been absolutely unstoppable since the start of the 2020 season, slashing .370/.482/.670 with 18 home runs and a 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. While many other hitters slumped to start the season, he began the year on a 21 game hitting streak (23 if you go back to 2020) and immediately embarked on a 16 game streak after that one snapped, and he didn't even strike out until his eighth game of the season. There are very few holes in Davis' offensive game. He starts from a bit of a crouched setup and stays low but level throughout his swing, keeping his eyes behind his barrel and creating plenty of leverage from that strong base. The result is plus power that comes with extremely high exit velocities, so even when he's not putting it over the fence, he's stinging screaming line drives that consistently find grass unless they're hit right at somebody. His simple, controlled operation at the plate also combines with his strong eye to really limit strikeouts, running just a 10.5% rate this spring even against the ACC's particularly tough schedule. The New Yorker from northern Westchester County identifies balls from strikes and fastballs from offspeed, then has no trouble catching up to whatever he decides is a good pitch to hit. Overall, the result is a very complete hitter that could hit 25-30 home runs a year or more while getting on base at a high clip, which would put him among the best catchers in the league. Defensively, he got to Louisville with a similar "strong arm, fringy glove" perception that follows most high school catchers, but he's worked to improve that. The arm now grades out as among the best in the class, an absolute cannon that very few dare to run on, and when they did, he nabbed 13/28 (46.4%). Davis definitely still stands out more for his arm than his glove, but the latter has really improved and most would consider him an average defender in that regard, and with robot umpires likely coming in the near future, pitch framing may not be a factor soon anyways. Those familiar with Davis note that he's a tireless worker that grinds out practices and workouts, so he should continue to get better and better. This is serious all star catcher upside. He signed for $6.5 million, which was nearly $2 million below slot value, and he's slashing .308/.387/.808 with three home runs in eight games so far between the FCL and High A Greensboro.

2-37: LHP Anthony Solometo, Bishop Eustace HS [NJ]. My rank: #27.
This is a huge talent to get in the second round, and he signed for close to the slot value of the 24th overall pick. If you ask his proponents, they would tell you Anthony Solometo was the second best high school pitcher in the class behind only third overall pick Jackson Jobe, and it's hard to find people who don't like him. He has a very unique operation on the mound, starting with a wide first step and a high leg kick in which his knee nearly touches his chin, then continuing with an extremely pronounced arm circle in which he reaches the baseball way back towards third base before whipping all the way back into place and firing towards home plate. He's an exceptional athlete and despite limbs flying in every direction, it's very loose overall and he repeats his delivery surprisingly well. Solometo's fastball sits in the low 90's and has touched 96, while his slider has continually improved and now flashes plus with late bite and nice depth. For now, he mainly pitches off those two, but he can unveil a changeup when he needs it and it shows some promise once he starts working it more consistently. The 6'3" lefty pours strikes into the zone and even shows the ability to locate them, something you don't always see from teenage pitchers and especially not ones with unconventional deliveries. You can get unorthodox pitchers with strong command, but usually they have to go to school first to get more consistent with their funky deliveries before they settle in. The Pirates will want to continue to work with the South Jersey native to ensure it holds up over an increased pro workload, as well as add a changeup, but they're starting from a really good spot. Committed to UNC, he signed for $2.8 million, which was roughly $800,000 above slot value.

CBB-64: OF Lonnie White Jr., Malvern HS [PA]. My rank: #32.
In Lonnie White Jr., the Pirates are getting a supreme athlete who was actually committed to Penn State to play football as well as baseball. As with most two-sport stars, he's relatively raw on the baseball diamond, but when you take his split focus into account he actually looks extremely natural out there. White packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and produces above average raw power from the right side, using a surprisingly smooth and leveraged swing to get to that power in games. He also shows good feel for hitting and selects good pitches to hit, something that most two-sport stars lag behind in, though White does need some more time to get his timing down against premium stuff. As you'd expect from a Big Ten wide receiver, the Coatesville native (far western Philadelphia suburbs) has plus speed and for that reason has a chance to stick in center field, though he'll need to refine his reads and routes. There's a ton of upside here as a potential 20-20 threat who could pop for 30 homers at his peak, and if his hit tool takes its natural progression once he starts focusing on baseball only, we could see some solidly high on-base percentages as well. I'm personally bought into White's upside and I think the Pirates are getting a future star here, so I love the pick. He signed for $1.5 million, which was roughly $450,000 above slot value, and he's picked up three hits in five at bats so far in the FCL.

3-72: RHP/SS Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA]. My rank: #34.
Eight picks after stealing one of Penn State head coach James Franklin's incoming wide receivers, the Pirates turned their attention to Clemson's Dabo Swinney and grabbed one of his incoming quarterbacks. Bubba Chandler is a Georgia sports superstar, who could have been drafted quite early as a position player and is also a four star QB, but his upside as a pitcher is higher than all else and the Pirates will take him in that direction. Chandler was on the radar over the summer but more in the second to third round range, but came out this spring with a big uptick in his stuff that bumped him up into first round conversation. His fastball now sits consistently in the low to mid 90's and has been popping some 97's, with even more likely to come. He throws a hammer of a curveball that looks plus at its best, while his changeup is very advanced for a high schooler and even flashes plus when he grips it just right. Everything comes from an athletic, fluid delivery that enables him to throw consistent strikes and hold his stuff deep into games. Now that the 6'3" righty is dropping football and likely hitting soon as well, he has a chance to take off even further and develop into an ace. To reach that lofty ceiling, he'll have to refine his command a bit further and it wouldn't hurt to get a little more confident in his slider, which very much functions as his fourth pitch for now. It looks like the Pirates might use him as a hitter as well a bit early on where, he shows above average power from both sides of the plate and his above average speed and cannon arm could make him an asset at shortstop. Chandler signed for $3 million, which was more than $2.1 million above slot value and roughly the slot value for the 22nd overall pick, while he actually has one hit in eleven at bats in the FCL.

4-102: RHP Owen Kellington, U-32 HS [VT]. Unranked.
Vermont ranks near the bottom of the fifty states when it comes to producing baseball talent, so Owen Kellington's selection here in the fourth round means a great deal to the Green Mountain State. Kellington was a bit off the radar considering he wasn't seen much on the summer showcase circuit and played his high school ball over one hundred miles from Albany, Manchester, and Portland, the closest major cities, and roughly 150 miles from Boston (though he's technically just within a hundred miles of Montreal). For now, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has topped out around 93-94, which isn't quite overpowering yet but he's not done adding velocity. His main weapon is a hammer curveball with big depth that will only get better as he adds more power to it, though he needs to work on his changeup further. The 6'3" righty has plenty of room to grow into his frame and the Pirates will certainly work with him on his delivery, where he loses some stability when he leans backwards towards first base mid stride. As you'd expect with a high school pitcher drafted in this range, there's plenty of upside, but of course plenty of risk in a less-seen prep arm from off the beaten prospect path. Committed to UConn, he signed for $600,000, which was $28,600 above slot value.

5-133: 3B Jackson Glenn, Dallas Baptist. Unranked.
This guy has been around a while. Jackson Glenn played two years at Grayson JC in North Texas, then transferred back home to Dallas Baptist less than ten miles from where he grew up. He's been there for three years, so as a fifth year senior he's now set to turn 24 in October. He wasn't really on the prospect radar until this year, when he broke out for a monster season and slashed .366/.438/.732 with 21 home runs and a 33/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, leading the Patriots' furious charge first to the NCAA Tournament and then on to a third super regional game against Virginia, where he got on base in all four of his plate appearances in the team's season-ending loss. It's certainly an interesting profile for Glenn, who was older than most (but not all) of his competition this spring and had clearly progressed to another level, to the point where he really just looked extremely at home in the box at all times and was able to execute his game plan pretty much at will. He found the barrel extremely consistently and sprayed line drives all over the field, and because he was so comfortable, he could sit on pitches to turn on and that's where most of his 21 home runs came from. It will be interesting to see how he transitions to pro ball over a larger sample because he's clearly ready, and he should move very quickly. Against pro competition, it's probably an average power, average hit type of deal, which would produce maybe 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages. There's a little bit of split in the industry as to his defensive home, as he's not the quickest at second base but may not have the arm for third base and might be too short (5'11") for first base. The Pirates could try him out as a bat-first second baseman but of course he has Nick Gonzales to contend with (and he's actually a year and a half older than last year's seventh overall pick), with the ultimate projection probably being somewhat of a Nick Solak type of situation (and he comps pretty well to Solak anyways, though Solak was significantly younger when he was drafted out of Louisville). The Dallas-area native signed for $12,500, which was $409,800 below slot value, and he's off to a red-hot start hitting .429/.545/.600 through twelve games, mostly at Low A Bradenton.

7-193: C Wyatt Hendrie, San Diego State. Unranked.
After taking San Diego State shortstop Mike Jarvis in the sixth round, the Pirates went back again and grabbed Aztec catcher Wyatt Hendrie in the seventh. His stock has steadily ticked up and he was drafted in the tenth round by the Cubs out of Antelope Valley JC out in the California desert in 2019, but headed to San Diego State instead. He had a big year in 2021 by slashing .379/.464/.633 with nine home runs and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games in an admittedly hitter-friendly conference, giving evaluators confidence that he'll provide some offensive value in pro ball. Hendrie has a bit of a similar operation at the plate to first overall pick Henry Davis, coming from a bit of a crouched stands and staying low through his swing so he can get his eyes behind the ball. He doesn't have quite as much loft as Davis and of course is at least a full grade below in both power and hit, while his load is also a bit more pronounced with scissor-like extension in his lower half. The Palmdale, California native makes a ton of contact like Davis and regularly finds the barrel against solid pitching, proving to be extremely difficult to strike out (just 12% this spring). While he did significantly increase his power output this spring, he's still below average in that regard and the ball doesn't always jump off his barrel like some of the higher picks in this class, especially with wood. Behind the plate, he's new to catching and it shows at times, though he's a great athlete that has taken to it quickly and should be roughly average in that regard. Overall, he probably projects for 8-10 home runs with solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages in pro ball, which is a backup profile especially when you're stuck behind Henry Davis. Hendrie signed for $177,500, which was $67,400 below slot value, and is hitting .190/.217/.381 through seven games in the FCL.

8-223: RHP Sean Sullivan, California. My rank: #209.
Sean Sullivan has been an interesting one for a while over at Cal. He was so-so as an 18 year old freshman in 2019 but was a superstar in the elite Cape Cod League that summer (2.08 ERA, 48/7 K/BB in 43.1 IP), where he was one of the youngest players in the league (if not the youngest, but I don't feel like combing through rosters to confirm that). That summer, he showed a low 90's fastball, a sharp slider, and a solid curveball and changeup, and he commanded it all well to miss bats. Given his extreme youth, he had a chance to pitch his way into the first round conversation in 2021, but ultimately he's never quite regained that form in the two years since. In 2021, Sullivan put up a 3.68 ERA and a 75/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings. The above average command has held up from that Cape run, and in fifteen starts he never walked more than three batters or allowed more than four runs, earned or unearned. The stuff, though, has all ticked down a half grade. His fastball sits closer to 90 now while still scraping the mid 90's when he needs it, while his slider is a solid average pitch and remains his out pitch even if it's not a true weapon. The curveball and changeup are a bit fringier but flash average. The Los Angeles-area native has an uptempo delivery that reminds me a bit of Carson Fulmer, but he's a great athlete that repeats it well and gets good extension down the mound. Age is a major bonus here, as he won't turn 21 until October and is therefore up to a full year (or more) younger than many of his classmates, so he can be evaluated somewhat as a J2 player rather than a college junior. There's not a ton of projection left in his skinny 6'1" frame and he probably won't add more than a tick of velocity, but the Pirates are hoping that youth can help him regain some sharpness in his secondary stuff and outplay his #4 starter projection. Sullivan signed for $175,000, which was $17,900 below slot value.

10-283: RHP Justin Meis, Eastern Michigan. Unranked.
The Pirates second and third picks, Anthony Solometo and Lonnie White Jr., grew up on the New Jersey and Pennsylvania sides of the Philadelphia suburbs, respectively, so you could call them semi-hometown picks. Justin Meis is a true Yinzer though, a graduate of Bethel Park High School less than ten miles south of downtown Pittsburgh, and he headed northwest up to Eastern Michigan for college. While his stats in Ypsilanti haven't been eye-popping, he's gotten better and better and in 2021 had a 4.64 ERA and an 81/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings, and he showed well in the Cape Cod League by allowing just two runs and putting up a 16/2 strikeout to walk ratio in 14 innings over his final three starts. Meis brings a low 90's fastball that can touch the mid 90's in short stints, adding an inconsistent slider that looks like a weapon at its best but can flatten out at times. He also throws a changeup with nice fade, rounding out a solid three pitch arsenal. Though he has a long arm path and a somewhat high effort delivery, he repeats that delivery well and pounds the strike zone. The 6'2" righty might have some starter upside if the Pirates want to be patient and smooth some things out, but it might be best to just stick him in the bullpen and let the stuff tick up. If he gets there quickly, he could join David Bednar and give the Pirates two Pittsburgh products in their bullpen. Meis signed for $127,500, which was $22,000 below slot value, and he's allowed four runs (two earned) through 8.1 innings at Low A Bradenton, striking out ten.

13-373: RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada. My rank: #199.
This is a real sleeper for Pittsburgh. Owen Sharts was a well-known prospect out of high school, but ended up on campus at Nevada and leaves with his stock a little bit in flux. This spring, Sharts was off to a peculiar start with a 5.12 ERA and a 35/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, then went down with Tommy John surgery in April. So after a shortened 2020 season in which he only threw 22 innings and a full freshman season that's now two years behind us, it's difficult to get a handle on who Sharts is now, let alone who he will be when he returns from surgery in 2022. So far in his Nevada career, he has sat in the low 90's with his fastball and climbed to about 95, while his curveball has flashed true plus and can be an absolute weapon. He also throws a changeup that flashes average. The 6'2" righty has a pretty clean delivery and a history of providing consistent strikes, even if his control was perhaps a touch ahead of his command, but that control completely fell apart in 2021 before his injury. If he lost the strike zone simply because he wasn't feeling right, then the Pirates have a legitimate starting pitching prospect on their hands given his velocity and the presence of a plus offspeed pitch. He'll have to get it back though, because what we saw in 2021 was unplayable. The Los Angeles-area native signed for $125,000.

14-403: OF Braylon Bishop, Arkansas HS [AR]. My rank: #119.
This pick wasn't particularly surprising given that the Pirates drafted numerous high schoolers early that would require large over slot bonuses, so having Braylon Bishop as a backup plan in case one of them didn't sign was smart. What was surprising was that he turned out to be part of Plan A, and even though Pittsburgh got deals done with all of their expensive preps, he still signed for just sixth round money. Once he made it out of the draft's second day, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that he was going to prove his tools at Arkansas, and this bonus was surprisingly low. Anyways, the Pirates are getting a supreme talent in Bishop who simply hasn't put it together yet. He's been a known commodity for a while now, showing up at numerous showcase events and standing out among his ultra-talented peers with some of the best tools in the class. The Texarkana native has plus raw power from the left side, a product of exceptional bat speed and plenty of loft in his uppercut hack. He's also a plus runner that can really change a game on the basepaths, and overall he just does things on the field that others can't. However, he's really struggled with inconsistency and has gone through stretches where he just looks overwhelmed. Bishop has long had a lot of moving parts in his swing, whipping the bat in all sorts of directions and changing his eye level, but he did come out this spring with a much cleaner looking operation. He still struggles with swing and miss, but Pittsburgh is hoping that more time with his simplified approach and a few more tweaks can get him going in that regard. He'll stick in center field, which takes some pressure off the bat, with his speed and a strong arm making him an asset as he continues to refine his game. There is a huge offensive ceiling here with the chance to post 20-20 or even 30-30 seasons, but it will take a lot of work. He signed for $268,700, of which $143,200 counts against the Pirates' bonus pool, and he has two singles in nine at bats so far in the FCL.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the Pac-12

 Article originally published in Prospects Worldwide on December 17th.

We round out our Power Five conferences with a look at the Pac-12, but don’t worry, two low and mid major overviews are coming out next. The Pac-12 is an interesting conference that lacks much firepower at the top behind UCLA’s Matt McLain, but the deeper you look into the back of Day One/early Day Two, the more the conference’s depth is apparent. UCLA, as always, is absolutely loaded, and five Bruins are among the conference’s top ten prospects. Behind them, Arizona is loaded up with bats and Arizona State has a fantastic assortment of arms.

Looking back, we saw themes apparent in other conferences – the Big Ten was filled with projectable arms, the ACC was loaded with bats, and the Big 12 was devoid of them. The Pac-12, meanwhile, finds itself balanced not only between bats and arms, but with a variety of skill sets as well. Geographically speaking, though, eight of our ten players are from Southern California, including five from the Los Angeles area and three from the San Diego area. Only Ryan Holgate (Davis, CA near Sacramento) and Chase Silseth (Farmington, NM) hail from elsewhere.

1. SS Matt McLain, UCLA

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 170 lbs. Born 8/6/1999. Hometown: Tustin, CA
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.

This is perhaps the clearest number one prospect in any of the Power Five conferences. Matt McLain was a first round pick out of the Los Angeles-area high school ranks in 2018, but didn’t sign with the Diamondbacks and instead headed to UCLA. Three years later, he has a chance to go even higher. McLain struggled to just a .203/.276/.355 line as a freshman, doing a good job of putting the ball in the gaps but not making enough contact overall. After a solid run through the Cape Cod League after the season (.270/.392/.410), he exploded to a .397/.422/.621 line with three home runs in 13 games in his shortened sophomore season. That spilled over into summer ball in the California Collegiate League, where he hit a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 22/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 30 games. That’ll play.

McLain is interesting because he does a lot of things well, but also has a few holes in his game. First and foremost, he’s an exceptional athlete who packs a lot of strength and speed into his skinny, 5’11” frame. That athleticism helps him tremendously on both sides of the ball, and he has every chance to stick at shortstop because of it. Though he looks slight in stature, he makes a ton of hard contact all over the field, flashing average power with the chance to get above average if he keeps trending in this direction. His quick right handed swing also gives him the chance for a plus hit tool, though it plays closer to 55 at this point because he can be susceptible to offspeed stuff.

Tightening up his plate discipline will be the most important item on the to-do list in 2021, as he can get aggressive. He’s a great fastball hitter and makes such easy contact with velocity that he rarely walks, but because he can swing through offspeed stuff, pro pitchers will have a very clear plan to get him out. He’s trending in the right direction there, and an increased walk rate and lower offspeed whiff rate in 2021 will make a huge difference. Projecting at shortstop automatically makes his offensive profile more attractive, right now projecting for perhaps 15-25 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages to go with a handful of stolen bases.

2. RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 2/19/1999. Hometown: San Diego, CA

2018-2019: 10-1, 3.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 133/55 K/BB in 97.2 IP.

The story of Kevin Abel is well documented at this point, to say the least. An absolute superstar as a true freshman for the Oregon State Beavers, he had a 0.62 ERA across 29 innings in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, including a complete game, two hit shutout in the championship clincher against Arkansas (video above). However, we haven’t seen much of him since. Abel lasted just 16.1 innings in 2019 before going down with back problems and eventually Tommy John surgery, then the 2020 season shut down before he was able to work his way back onto the mound. A potential second to third round pick anyways, he priced himself out of the draft and was the fourth best college prospect to return to school.

Way back in 2018, when “social distancing” was what I did at parties in my fraternity’s basement and minor leaguer Pete Alonso still went by “Peter,” Abel impressed scouts in a lot of ways. His fastball sat in the low 90’s, and it played up because he could fill the strike zone with it. His curveball graded as average but showed above average to plus potential with great depth, just needing to add a little power. Lastly, his changeup was easily his best pitch, a plus fader that functioned as his putaway pitch and made much older batters look silly. Everything played up for a multitude of reasons, including his solid average command, above average control, sturdy frame, and big game mentality.

Two and a half years later, we’re left wondering what Abel will look like now. Average command as a freshman is impressive in its own right and usually bodes well for above average or even plus command a few years later. That would really tie his three pitch arsenal together nicely, especially given all of his other starter traits. He has the true plus pitch, he has the frame, and he has the intangibles. What scouts now need to see is proof that it’s still there after all this time. If he comes back strong, look for him to come off the board in the top two rounds even though he’ll be nearly 22 and a half on draft day.

3. RHP Nick Nastrini, UCLA

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 2/18/2000. Hometown: San Diego, CA

2019-2020: 3-1, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 47/17 K/BB in 35.1 IP.

Matt McLain is the clear #1 prospect in the Pac-12, and it was pretty easy for me to slot Kevin Abel at #2. Now that we’re past those two, the competition will get much stiffer, and it’s really a testament to the depth of te Pac-12. Nick Nastrini doesn’t have much of a track record with 2019 thoracic outlet syndrome and the 2020 shutdown keeping him off the mound, but still he’s shown enough in the Cape Cod League and in 35.1 innings in LA to make a legitimate Day One draft case. He has a 2.80 ERA and a strong 47/17 strikeout to walk ratio for the Bruins, and on the Cape in 2019, he was lights out as a teenager with a 2.18 ERA and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio across 33 innings. Now, he finds himself in an interesting spot somewhere between projectable, polished, and unproven.

The San Diego native throws three pitches, but none stand out as plus. His fastball sits in the low 90’s, while he mixes in an average (but high spin) curveball and an above average changeup. The three pitches play up because he can effectively work them around the plate and play them off each other, and hopes are that his walk rates will come down even further as he gets more consistent innings. Standing 6’3″ and well built, he also has a durable frame that should help him remain in the rotation, and his delivery is pretty easy and simple.

The end result is not a flashy profile, but a pitcher who simply knows how to get the job done. His stuff won’t jump off the page in a scouting report, but perhaps more consistent innings could help it take a small jump. Even as is, three at least average pitches and above average command, combined with a good frame and feel for pitching, give him a nice floor as a back-end starter. Nastrini has a chance to pitch himself into the top fifty or so picks with a consistent spring, or he could pitch himself out of Day One entirely with any missed time, as it would be hard to sell a “high floor” arm with a track record of injuries.

4. 1B/OF JT Schwartz, UCLA

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’4″, 210 lbs. Born 12/17/1999. Hometown: Newport Beach, CA

2020: 0 HR, .328/.380/.391, 2 SB, 13/4 K/BB in 15 games.

Here’s our third UCLA Bruin in four names, just to give you an idea of the talent in that program. JT Schwartz is one of the Pac-12 more polarizing prospects, bringing a short, mixed bag of a track record to go with a high ceiling. He redshirted his freshman season but showed extremely well in the Northwoods League that summer, slashing .378/.464/.480 with more walks (25) than strikeouts (23), then was off to a hot .328/.380/.391 start for UCLA in 2020 before the season shut down. In 2021, he’ll look to build on that while fielding Matt McLain throws at first base.

The first thing that stands out for the Los Angeles-area native is his power…potential. He’s a lanky kid at 6’4″, with long arms and legs that are just begging to drive the ball out of the park. However, to this point, his power has mostly played to the gaps with just one home run combined in 67 games between UCLA and the Northwoods League. Schwartz can find the barrel no problem and is universally praised for his hitting ability, but scouts are just waiting for him to deploy his power in games. While he’s worked to get a better base and that has led to plenty of doubles power, he still has a line drive approach that doesn’t put the ball over the fence. Going forward, he should be willing to accept more swing and miss in order to drive the ball in the air – something he should be capable of.

Defensively, Schwartz has gradually moved down the defensive spectrum and mans first base for UCLA. A decent athlete, he should be able to handle left field and could be adequate in right or even at third base with some work, but no matter where he ends up, his bat will have to carry him. He’s a 55 hitter that has no trouble handling advanced pitching, but his current power output won’t cut it at first base or in left field. If he uses his lanky frame to generate more leverage and drive the ball in the air more, Schwartz has a chance to fly up boards in 2021.

5. OF Ryan Holgate, Arizona

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’1″, 205 lbs. Born 6/8/2000. Hometown: Davis, CA

2019-2020: 8 HR, .273/.396/.464, 1 SB, 67/42 K/BB in 68 games.

Ryan Holgate actually has a pretty similar outlook to JT Schwartz, but for now, he’s a very different player. He had an up and down freshman season in 2019 (.240/.378/.437, 7 HR), then showed very well in the Northwoods League with 13 home runs and a .297/.392/.554 line in 58 games. In 2020, he beat up on a weak schedule for an exceptional .377/.459/.547 line across 15 games, setting himself up as one of the more established power bats in the 2021 class.

Unlike Schwartz, you don’t have to project on Holgate’s power. It’s here, and it’s very real. The Central Valley native has a beautiful swing from the left side that brings tremendous leverage and enables him to drive the baseball impressive distances. By hammering 13 home runs in the Northwoods League in 2019, he also proved that his power plays up with wood bats. However, scouts are less confident in Holgate’s hit tool. He struck out at a 26.3% rate as a freshman, 18.5% in the Northwoods League, and even 19.7% against weaker competition in his short but loud 2020 campaign. A patient hitter, he regularly finds himself in deep counts, which enables him to draw walks but which also often sends him back to the bench empty handed.

As a below average runner without a great arm, he projects best in left field. That means the 6’1″ slugger will have to hit his way to the majors, so tightening up his two strike approach will be a must. All eyes will be on Holgate during Arizona’s weekend series against the Pac-12 powers, where he will have a chance to prove he can hammer advanced pitching. If he continues to post high strikeout rates north of 15-20%, it will be hard to justify drafting him on Day One, but any improvement in plate discipline could lock him in. The fact that he won’t need any kind of swing changes in pro ball bodes well for the continued development of his hit tool after that.

6. RHP Jesse Bergin, UCLA

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 200 lbs. Born 10/8/1999. Hometown: Studio City, CA

2019-2020: 9-0, 3.67 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 103/32 K/BB in 88.1 IP.

Back in sunny Los Angeles, UCLA has yet another name to watch. Jesse Bergin is a product of the Harvard-Westlake School, the elite Hollywood Hills program that has churned out big leaguers Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty, plus 2020 Mets first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong and Stanford freshman Drew Bowser, himself a potential first round pick in 2023. Bergin held his own as a freshman in the Bruins rotation in 2019, putting up a 4.43 ERA and a 76/25 K/BB in 67 innings, then started off red hot with a 1.27 ERA and 27/7 K/BB in in 21.1 innings in 2020. Heading into 2021, he’ll look to build on his strong track record with fellow draft prospects Nick Nastrini and Zach Pettway in one of the best weekend rotations in the country.

Bergin is mostly a two pitch pitcher for now, relying on his above average fastball and slider. The fastball sits in the low 90’s and gets good carry up in the zone, and he shows the feel to work it to all four quadrants. The slider fluctuates between 45 and 55, but it’s usually towards the upper end with good three quarters shape and finish. At times it can pop out of his hand a little, but overall it could be a plus pitch in time. Bergin doesn’t show much of a changeup. He’s an above average strike thrower and repeats his delivery well, and with a sturdy but projectable 6’4″ frame, he has plenty of starter traits.

Bergin is a bit of a sleeper to pitch his way into Day One consideration. With two above average pitches, good command, and a starter’s frame, there is a lot to like. In 2021, the best thing he can do for his stock would be to work in his changeup more often, which would make evaluators much more comfortable projecting him as a starter. Considering all the talent around him, he certainly won’t have a shortage of people there to watch.

7. RHP Sean Sullivan, California

Bat: S. Throw: R. 6’1″, 170 lbs. Born 10/2/2000. Hometown: Woodland Hills, CA

2019-2020: 2-2, 5.12 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 32/20 K/BB in 31.2 IP.

If you look at his stats in Berkeley, Sean Sullivan doesn’t have much to go off of. He had a 5.88 ERA as a freshman, then walked more batters (4) than he struck out (3) in 5.2 innings in 2020. However, scouts love Cape performers, and Sullivan is a Cape sensation. While most players in the Cape Cod League are at least 19-20 years old, Sullivan showed up at 18 in 2019 and flat out shoved; over 43.1 innings, the LA native had a 2.08 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 48/7 strikeout to walk ratio, absolutely dominating his older and already elite competition.

Sullivan is yet to replicate that success at Cal. On the Cape, he sat consistently in the low 90’s with his fastball and rattled off a sharp lateral slider, an average curveball, and an average changeup. However, at Cal, the fastball sits closer to 90 or perhaps a tick below, while his slider plays closer to average and his curveball earns 40-45 grades. Sullivan also has a slight build and an uptempo delivery, giving some Carson Fulmer vibes. Having missed time with back problems in high school and with an unspecified injury at the start of his sophomore year, he is far from proven durable.

There is considerable upside to tap into here if he can harness his Cape form more consistently. That right arm can be electric at times, at his best showing the ability to command four pitches. But given that he has otherwise been very inconsistent, has missed time with injury, and doesn’t have a starter’s build, there is very significant relief risk. He absolutely has to have better results in 2021 if he wants to be drafted on Day One, but the good news is we know he has that in him. Also going for Sullivan is his age, as he won’t turn 21 until October, making him one of the youngest college arms available.

8. RHP Tyler Thornton, Arizona State

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 180 lbs. Born 7/2000. Hometown: Solana Beach, CA

2019 (SMC)-2020: 12-2, 2.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 119/34 K/BB in 100.1 IP.

If we’re talking track record, then Tyler Thornton has by far the best one on this list. He was sensational as a freshman at St. Mary’s College, where he put up a 2.71 ERA and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio across 76.1 innings en route to earning numerous Freshman of the Year accolades around the industry. He transferred to Arizona State in 2020 and continued to show well with a 3.38 ERA and 25/7 K/BB across 24 innings. While his stuff is perhaps the quietest on this list, you simply can’t argue with the results he’s gotten at a time when many of his contemporaries are unproven.

Thornton comes from a low three quarters release point that could almost be called sidearm, putting a tough diagonal angle on the baseball. His fastball usually sits in the upper 80’s, but he’s slowly been tacking on velocity and has been peaking into the low 90’s more and more regularly. That low arm slot not only puts angle on his fastball, but also some run, and he does a very nice job of commanding it to both sides of the plate. He adds a solid average changeup that fades to his arm side, while his curveball is presently below average. Going forward, I’d be interested to see what happened if he tinkered with a slider.

Standing 6’3″ with a great pitcher’s frame, many scouts are unsurprised that his velocity is trending up. However, despite his track record and command, the San Diego native does have a to-do list for 2021. It would really help his stock to maintain that low 90’s velocity throughout the season, and finding a reliable breaking ball is a must if he wants to start in pro ball. For that reason, he presently projects as a long reliever, but he’s young for the class and has every chance to change that projection this spring.

9. RHP Chase Silseth, Arizona

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6′, 205 lbs. Born 5/18/2000. Hometown: Farmington, NM

2019 (Tenn.)-2020 (CSN): 4-4, 3.00 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 79/16 K/BB in 51 IP.

I am very, very interested in this sleeper. Chase Silseth is the only player on this list not from California, and he’s easily the most travelled. Originally from Farmington, New Mexico, he began his college career at Tennessee and held his own with a 4.35 ERA and a sharp 24/6 K/BB in 20.2 innings out of the bullpen. Transferring to the College of Southern Nevada in 2020, he got more innings than most Division I arms and dominated the western JUCO ranks to the tune of a 2.08 ERA and a 55/10 K/BB in 30.1 innings. Now transferring once more to Arizona, he’s looking to really make a name for himself. I’m a believer that he’ll do just that.

Silseth has quite a few things going for him. With a power arm, he sits in the low 90’s without a ton of effort, but when he does reach back in short stints, he can touch 96-97. His slider can be inconsistent, but when it’s on, it’s an above average pitch with late vertical bite. He also shows an average changeup. When he stays within himself, he shows above average command and can really control the strike zone, though his arm slot can occasionally wander when he overthrows. Is a stocky six footer, so he doesn’t have a classic starter’s build, but has proven durable thus far.

The well-travelled new Wildcat will have some things to work on in Tucson, but he’s not far from a Day One product. Getting a little more consistent with his offspeed stuff while also learning to trust himself and not rush his delivery would put him in a great spot: commanding three big league pitches. I think he could sneak up on some people, and if starting doesn’t work out, his power fastball/slider combination will play up in the bullpen. With a May birthday, he’s also relatively young for the class.

10. C Noah Cardenas, UCLA

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 190 lbs. Born 9/10/1999. Hometown: Saugus, CA
2019-2020: 3 HR, .345/.451/.454, 0 SB, 23/23 K/BB in 69 games.

The tenth and final name on the list is Noah Cardenas, our sixth UCLA Bruin. He might rank higher on some other lists, but I’m wary of light hitting catchers and that drops him for me. Cardenas was always known for his glove, but he surprised many in the industry by taking immediately to Pac-12 pitching as a freshman and slashing .375/.476/.500 with three home runs and more walks (17) than strikeouts (14). That summer on the Cape, he continued to perform, slashing .297/.423/.344 with seven strikeouts to eight walks. However, that lopsided line highlights some concerns with Cardenas’ power, and he was off to a slow start in 2020 at .237/.367/.289.

Cardenas is universally praised for his work behind the plate. He combines soft hands and reliable arm with great agility to block balls in the dirt, with the overall feel for the craft that will make him an asset back there. Despite his strong freshman season, though, I’m not sold on his bat. The Southern California native is an adept contact hitter who struck out in just 8.4% of his plate appearances as a freshman and just 9% on the Cape (though that number was up to 18% as a sophomore), regularly putting the bat on the ball against advanced pitching. He makes such easy contact that he doesn’t draw a ton of walks, but he stands in at the plate and is more than willing to get hit. The flaw is with his power. While Cardenas catches the ball out front and sprays it around the field, but he lacks the loft and the strength to get the ball deep into the gaps, let alone over the fence. Over 94 games between UCLA and the Cape, he has 64 singles but just 15 extra base hits.

The glove gives Cardenas an extremely high floor, which is only bolstered by his natural feel to make contact. At the very least, he has a great shot at being a big league backup. In 2021, I would like to see him not only continue hitting .300+, but start to add more extra base and over the fence power as well. If he doesn’t, I find it difficult to project him as a full time starter. I’m sure some team that values catcher defense and is bought into his pure hit tool will grab him on Day One though.

Other Pac-12 Interesting Options

Arizona

Ryan Holgate is the headliner, but this Arizona lineup is loaded around him. Branden Boissiere is a career .333/.406/.461 hitter in Tucson, so he certainly has the track record. His left handed swing is loose and athletic and sprays singles around the field, but he’s limited defensively so he’ll want to add power to his game in 2021. I believe he could get to average in that regard. Tony Bullard hit .301/.412/.482 as a freshman, but slumped to .133/.372/.133 as a sophomore. There is innate power in his lank 6’4″ frame, and he can put nice loft on the ball at times, but his swing can get grooved at others. A likely first baseman, adding strength and consistency will be his key in 2021. We also have Mac Bingham, a draft-eligible sophomore who hit .361/.478/.500 last year. A compact 5’10”, he’s an ex-high school football player with some upside. His compact swing and strong plate discipline make his bat even more attractive. Dayton Dooney has followed a similar trajectory to Bullard, hitting .323/.417/.596 as a freshman but slumping to .146/.260/.317 as a sophomore. He’s not a big guy at 5’11” but the switch hitter generates at least average power from both sides of the plate with a loose but powerful swing. There is some swing and miss and he has spells where he struggles to make contact, so there will be a lot of eyes on him in 2021. Dooney has played all over the infield in Tucson.

Outfielder Donta’ Williams brings more experience than the above group, having consistently improved over three years in Tucson. He popped for a .348/.527/.500 line in the shortened 2020 season, adding to his reputation as an on-base machine who draws walks, takes his HBP’s, and rarely strikes out. A polished hitter, he cut down his swing at Arizona to achieve that low strikeout rate. He went undrafted in 2020, due in large part to a very weak Cape Cod run (.205/.287/.289) that left evaluators wondering just how much impact he’ll hit for. He plays a plus center field. While the focus will be on the offense, Chase Silseth is joined in the rotation by Dawson Netz, a draft-eligible sophomore that is a popular sleeper in the region. The 6’1″ righty put up a 2.45 ERA and a 12/3 K/BB in 11 innings last year, flashing a low 90’s fastball and a curveball with great depth. However, he doesn’t always hold that velocity and the curve can lack power at times. A dogged competitor, he has a chance to leap forward in 2021.

Arizona State

While Arizona brings the firepower on offense, Arizona State is loaded with interesting arms. Behind Tyler Thornton, my favorite is 6’6″, 240 pound lefty Justin Fall. A New Jersey native, Fall transferred from Brookdale CC but went undrafted after posting a 5.68 ERA and a 17/13 K/BB in 19 innings in 2020. At this point, he’s kind of a one tool player, but that one tool is a good one. His plus fastball sits in the low 90’s with minimal effort, and if he reaches back, he can hit the mid 90’s whenever he wants. With that big frame, he gets extension and puts run and sink on the ball that makes it really tough to square up. However, with mediocre offspeed stuff and spotty command, he probably fits in the bullpen. Lefty Erik Tolman was also eligible in 2020, and although he’s smaller, he’s more complete than Fall. Tolman has been strong in Tempe (3.14 ERA, 79/48 K/BB in 66 IP), working with a quality three pitch mix from the left side. His fastball usually sits in the upper 80’s and bumps 90-92 at best, thrown without much effort. He manipulates the shape on his slider from a frisbee pitch to a more vertical breaker, and shows a solid changeup. The 6’2″ lefty can lose the zone at times, but any bump in velocity could move him up boards in a hurry.

Righty Seth Tomczak has thrown just 3.2 innings so far, but I’m interested. He’s a string bean at 6’4″, and he has a lot of work to do. His fastball sits anywhere from the upper 80’s to the mid 90’s and the slider flashes above average, but his mechanics need an overhaul. There is considerable upside to be unlocked here as he gets stronger and more polished. Boyd Vander Kooi has one of the most unique names in college baseball, and he’s been a mainstay in Tempe with 156.2 innings under his belt since 2018. He was at his best in 2020 with a 0.70 ERA and a 20/2 K/BB across 25.2 innings, but went undrafted. The fastball occasionally creeps into the low 90’s but usually sits in the upper 80’s, and he adds an average curveball and below average changeup. It’s not the most exciting profile, but he fills the strike zone and has proven durable with a big 6’5″ frame.

Oregon

Oregon might not have quite the collection of arms that Arizona State possesses, but there are some interesting ones here nonetheless. Two of their top righties are actually very similar. Cullen Kafka was eligible in 2020, but his track record was too inconsistent to warrant a selection in the five round draft. Mostly used as a starter in Eugene, his riding fastball sits in the low 90’s when he’s stretched out, but he’s shown the ability to hover around 94-95 in shorter stints. His slider flashes above average at times, but can also lose its bite at times and look well below average. With below average command, the 6’4″ Bay Area native probably fits in the bullpen, where his stuff could tick up considerably. Hunter Breault was also draft-eligible in 2020, but he too was passed over due to his inconsistent track record. Used mostly in relief for the Ducks, his fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out around 97. We also have a slider and a splitter that flash above average, usually settling around average. With similar command questions to Kafka, the 6’2″ Hawaiian probably does not have a chance to start in pro ball, and his velocity can dip when he’s used in longer stints.

Oregon State

Behind the experienced Kevin Abel, Oregon State has a couple of young guns that could break out this year. Will Frisch is draft-eligible as a sophomore, having put up a 2.61 ERA and a 12/6 K/BB in 10.1 innings as a freshman. I’ve seen him listed everywhere from 5’10” to 6’1″, but however tall he actually is, he’s not the biggest guy in the world. Still, he can run his fastball into the mid 90’s and brings an above average changeup, giving him two pitches right there to work with. He would drop his arm at times on his slider in high school, but in limited looks in 2020, it seems like he did a better job holding the slot. Steps forward with his command or slider, which are not uncommon for underclassmen, would really help his stock. Jake Pfennigs, meanwhile, is very different. The 6’7″ Idahoan showed up to campus with long hair and a sloppy delivery, and since then he’s cleaned up both his hair and his delivery. A full time member of the Beaver rotation in 2020, he performed well against a tough schedule (3.57 ERA, 14/10 K/BB in 17.2 IP), but never got a chance to really get rolling. His low 90’s fastball has touched 95 and his curveball has steadily improved from fringy to average, though the command is still inconsistent. As he continues to polish his game, he could be a riser in 2021.

Stanford

Stanford doesn’t boast any elite talent for this year’s draft, with most of their draft talent coming from their veteran core and seasoned rotation. The top prospect in that group is Jacob Palisch, a 6’4″ lefty who went to high school just a few miles from where I currently live in the Dallas area. He was eligible in 2020, but minor lat problems delayed the start of his season and he didn’t get into a game. Palisch absolutely dominated the Cape Cod League in 2019 (1.29 ERA, 44/7 K/BB in 42 IP) but has been more good than great at Stanford (3.40 ERA, 84/33 K/BB in 103.1 IP). His fastball sits in the upper 80’s and his breaking ball is below average, but he can carve up lineups with an above average to plus changeup, above average command, and great overall feel for pitching. He’ll turn 23 shortly after the draft, so there’s not much projection remaining and he figures to be a #5 starter or long reliever. Brandon Beck, younger brother of Giants farmhand Tristan, is another polished veteran. He’s been a mainstay in the Cardinal rotation since 2018, putting up a 3.09 ERA and a 146/43 K/BB over 180.2 innings in three seasons. He mixes in four below average pitches in an upper 80’s fastball, a pair of breaking balls that lack power finish, and a changeup, but like Palisch, he has tremendous feel for pitching. He profiles as a back-end starter or long reliever, like Palisch. Alex Williams is a little younger than Palisch and Beck, and he’s off to a hot start to his Stanford career with a 2.11 ERA and a 61/12 K/BB in 81 innings from 2019-2020. As with Palisch and Beck, his fastball sits in the upper 80’s and scrapes 90-91, and like Palisch, he shows an above average changeup. He manipulates the shape on his breaking ball and flashes a few above average benders, but for now it’s usually slurvy. His above average command works well in his favor.

Southern California

The Trojans’ top prospect this year is Jamal O’Guinn, who might have gone in the sixth round last year had there been one. The Fresno native has improved in all three slash categories every year at USC, averaging out to a .282/.420/.411 line with five home runs over 94 games. He’s a big dude at a listed 6’4″ and 220 pounds, and he can really drive the ball with authority. However, a choppy right handed swing has kept him from turning that above average raw power into game power this far, despite good feel for the strike zone and the barrel. He’s a swing change candidate in pro ball, which isn’t ideal for a 22 year old, but that feel for the barrel should help him not miss a beat. He plays third base in Los Angeles but he’s a little stiff over there and would be stretched in the shifting era. If he moves over to first base, that power will have to come.

UCLA

The Bruins put six players into our top ten list, and there’s still more to talk about. Zach Pettway was eligible in 2020 but went undrafted despite a ridiculous shortened junior season (1.05 ERA, 29/1 K/BB in 25.2 IP). He’s a fascinating prospect that only sits in the upper 80’s with his fastball, topping out at 91, but he messes with hitters’ timing and then releases the ball right in front of your face with excellent extension despite a 6’1″ frame. His above average changeup tunnels extremely well off his fastball. The Long Beach native works his slider and curveball on a spectrum rather than a binary, but both earn 45 grades. It’s hard to project him as a starter with subpar velocity and breaking balls, but that’s true plus command and I wouldn’t count him out. He would have been #11 had this list gone that far.

Righty Jack Filby is really talented and may be able to start, but he’s been buried on that UCLA pitching staff and has been a reliever so far. His fastball sits 93-94 in relief, and it plays up because he puts great carry and run on the ball. His curveball is inconsistent but flashes above average, and it should become a more consistent putaway pitch in time. To this point, he’s been around the zone, but it’s hard to project him as a starter without seeing him in that role. Sean Mullen, to me, is a really interesting one. The Bakersfield native has been lights out in a small sample, putting up a 0.56 ERA and a 16/11 K/BB over 16 innings. He’s springy and athletic on the mound, driving hard off his back leg to deliver low 90’s fastballs. His slider is presently below average, but flashes well above average at its best with nasty, late bite. His game is raw overall, and for that reason he looks like a reliever, but I think he could be a sleeper to start.

Washington

We’ll talk about Braiden Ward here, a speedy outfielder with a career .309/.403/.403 line and 55 stolen bases over 124 games in Seattle. He was eligible in 2020 but lacked the impact hitting ability to earn a selection. Ward has a loose left handed swing and steadily improving plate discipline that enables him to make line drive contact to all fields, though he’s hit just one home run in three years and his power is exclusively to the gaps. A plus-plus runner, he is an asset in center field and adds an unremarkable but accurate arm. With a little bit of added strength, he could be comped to Jarren Duran.

Washington State

We’ll finish this long article off with a sleeper pick. Kyle Manzardo is the second northern Idaho native to crack this article, joining Oregon State’s Jake Pfennigs, and the kid can hit. After a respectable .272/.335/.364 freshman season, he exploded in his shortened sophomore season for a .435/.500/.694 line and three home runs in 16 games, albeit against a weak schedule. Manzardo backed up that hot 2020 with a strong run through the Northwoods League (.297/.408/.534, 7 HR, 23/21 K/BB), and could build on his breakout in 2021. He is a disciplined hitter who generates plenty of leverage in his left handed swing, bringing above average raw power. The swing can get long at times, so he’ll need to continue to prove his hit tool, especially since he’s confined to first base. If you squint, you can kind of see a poor man’s Triston Casas.